Changes in risk factors explain changes in mortality from ischaemic heart disease in Finland.

OBJECTIVES--To estimate the extent to which changes in the main coronary risk factors (serum cholesterol concentration, blood pressure, and smoking) explain the decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease and to evaluate the relative importance of change in each of these risk factors. DESIGN--Predicted changes in ischaemic heart disease mortality were calculated by a logistic regression model using the risk factor levels assessed by cross sectional population surveys, in 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987, and 1992. These predicted changes were compared with observed changes in mortality statistics. SETTING--North Karelia and Kuopio provinces, Finland. SUBJECTS--14,257 men and 14,786 women aged 30-59 randomly selected from the national population register. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Levels of the risk factors and predicted and observed changes in mortality from ischaemic heart disease. RESULTS--The observed changes in the risk factors in the population from 1972 to 1992 predicted a decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease of 44% (95% confidence interval 37% to 50%) in men and 49% (37% to 59%) in women. The observed decline was 55% (51% to 58%) and 68% (61 to 74) respectively. CONCLUSION--An assessment of the data on the risk factors for ischaemic heart disease and mortality suggests that most of the decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease can be explained by changes in the three main coronary risk factors.     

Dental disease and risk of coronary heart disease and mortality.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate a reported association between dental disease and risk of coronary heart disease. SETTING--National sample of American adults who participated in a health examination survey in the early 1970s. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study in which participants underwent a standard dental examination at baseline and were followed up to 1987. Proportional hazards analysis was used to estimate relative risks adjusted for several covariates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidence of mortality or admission to hospital because of coronary heart disease; total mortality. RESULTS--Among all 9760 subjects included in the analysis those with periodontitis had a 25% increased risk of coronary heart disease relative to those with minimal periodontal disease. Poor oral hygiene, determined by the extent of dental debris and calculus, was also associated with an increased incidence of coronary heart disease. In men younger than 50 years at baseline periodontal disease was a stronger risk factor for coronary heart disease; men with periodontitis had a relative risk of 1.72. Both periodontal disease and poor oral hygiene showed stronger associations with total mortality than with coronary heart disease. CONCLUSION--Dental disease is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease, particularly in young men. Whether this is a causal association is unclear. Dental health may be a more general indicator of personal hygiene and possibly health care practices.     

Dietary factors in the fall in coronary heart disease mortality.

The role of dietary change in the fall in heart disease mortality has been hotly debated. Three countries, Australia, USA and UK with equal 'care' and sophistication of surgical techniques have shown different timing in the beginning of the decline of this 'epidemic'; around the mid 1960s in the first two countries, but not until the late 1970s for the UK. The cause of this difference may be the changing food habits of their populations. Using food disappearance data, apparent consumption of butter and margarine show opposite trends (butter down and margarine up) predating the decline in mortality in both the USA and Australia by at least 7 years and also in the UK, but at a later time, (about 1970). Changes in adipose tissue linoleate, a marker for polyunsaturated fat intake, support this indirect evidence, with depot levels rising in the USA from the 1960s and 10 years later in the UK. Other evidence support the view of decreasing saturated fat intake and increasing polyunsaturated intake prior to 1960 in the USA. Although many factors must contribute to the decline in mortality from CHD, change in dietary P/S ratio would seem to be the major dietary contributor.     

Decline in cardiovascular mortality in North Karelia and other parts of Finland.

The trends in mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular stroke, and all cardiovascular diseases were analysed for the province of North Karelia and for the rest of Finland. Linear trends in mortality were computed for the population aged 35 to 64 for the period from 1969 to 1982, and changes in mortality between the three year means of 1969-71 and 1980-2 were calculated. In North Karelia, where a community based preventive programme has been carried out since 1972, the annual decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease in men was on average 2.9%, whereas in the rest of Finland it was 2.0%. For women the respective average annual declines in mortality were 4.9% and 3.0%. The net decline from 1969-71 to 1980-2 in North Karelia was 100 deaths/100,000 men. The annual mortality from all cardiovascular disease in men decreased by 2.9% in North Karelia and by 2.6% in the rest of Finland; in women the decreases were 6.0% and 5.0% a year, respectively. The net decline in North Karelia was 71 deaths/100,000 men. The decline in mortality from all causes was also appreciable in both sexes in North Karelia, but it did not differ significantly from national trends.     

What contribution has cardiac surgery made to the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease?

The number of deaths from coronary artery disease is declining in New Zealand as in some other Western countries. It has been estimated that in 1981 in the Auckland metropolitan area there were 126 fewer deaths than would have been expected from the data in 1974. The contribution made by cardiac surgery to this decline was assessed from the known numbers of patients who were operated on, from their survival rate, and from the predicted mortality of the surgical cohort had they not undergone operation. Such mortality was predicted from past studies of patients with similar symptoms, exercise data, studies of unstable angina, and the coronary artery surgical study registry. From this method it was estimated that coronary surgery accounted for 26% to 42% of the reduction in coronary deaths. Two previous studies estimated, from calculations based on the European study of patients with modest symptoms, that the contribution of cardiac surgery was much lower. Extrapolating data from one subset of patients to a second subset with quite different characteristics is a conceptual fallacy.     

Flavonoid intake and coronary mortality in Finland: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between dietary intake of flavonoids and subsequent coronary mortality. DESIGN: A cohort study based on data collected at the Finnish mobile clinic health examination survey from 1967-72 and followed up until 1992. SETTINGS: 30 communities from different parts of Finland. SUBJECTS: 5133 Finnish men and women aged 30-69 years and free from heart disease at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Dietary intake of flavonoids, total mortality, and coronary mortality. RESULTS: In women a significant inverse gradient was observed between dietary intake of flavonoids and total and coronary mortality. The relative risks between highest and lowest quarters of flavonoid intake adjusted for age, smoking, serum cholesterol concentration, blood pressure, and body mass index were 0.69 (95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.90) and 0.54 (0.33 to 0.87) for total and coronary mortality, respectively. The corresponding values for men were 0.76 (0.63 to 0.93) and 0.78 (0.56 to 1.08), respectively. Adjustment for intake of antioxidant vitamins and fatty acids weakened the associations for women; the relative risks for coronary heart disease were 0.73 (0.41 to 1.32) and 0.67 (0.44 to 1.00) in women and men, respectively. Intakes of onions and apples, the main dietary sources of flavonoids, presented similar associations. The relative risks for coronary mortality between highest and lowest quarters of apple intake were 0.57 (0.36 to 0.91) and 0.81 (0.61 to 1.09) for women and men, respectively. The corresponding values for onions were 0.50 (0.30 to 0.82) and 0.74 (0.53 to 1.02), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that people with very low intakes of flavonoids have higher risks of coronary disease.     

Decline in rate of death from ischaemic heart disease in the United Kingdom.

The rates of death from ischaemic heart disease in the United Kingdom in the years after 1968 were studied to establish whether any general trend had occurred. A decline in the rates began after 1973-4, was greatest in those aged 35-44 years, and occurred among both men and women and in each of the regions of England and in Wales and Scotland. Total dietary fat intake had started to fall about five years earlier, and this may provide part of the explanation. Changes in smoking habits also occurred but were more difficult to relate to the pattern of change in the death rates. If a general decline in ischaemic heart disease has begun in the United Kingdom a case may be made for close monitoring of changes in lifestyle and medical practice in different demographic groups to try to find the explanation.     

Secular decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in adults with diabetes mellitus: cohort study

Objective To examine trends in fatal coronary heart disease in adults with and without diabetes.Design Cohort study.Setting Two surveys of the Nord-Trøndelag health study (HUNT), a population based study in Norway.Participants 74 914 men and women from the first survey (1984-6) and 64 829 from the second survey (1995-7).Main outcome measure Age specific mortality from coronary heart disease among adults with and without diabetes during two consecutive nine year follow-up periods.Results A total of 2623 men and 1583 women died from coronary heart disease. Mortality rates were substantially lower during the most recent follow-up period: among men aged 70-79 without diabetes, deaths per 1000 person years declined from 16.38 to 8.79 (reduction 48%, 95% confidence interval 39% to 55%) and among women aged 70-79 from 6.84 to 2.68 (62%, 52% to 70%). Among the same age group with diabetes, deaths per 1000 person years in men declined from 38.97 to 17.89 (54%, 32% to 69%) and in women from 28.15 to 11.83 (59%, 37% to 73%). The reduction was more noticeable in age groups younger than 70 at baseline, and less pronounced among people aged 80 or more. Mortality from coronary heart disease was more than twofold higher in people with than without diabetes, with a slightly stronger association in women. The difference in mortality by diabetes status remained almost unchanged from the first to the second survey.Conclusion The strong general reduction in mortality rates from coronary heart disease from the first to the second follow-up period also benefited people with diabetes, but the more than twofold higher mortality from coronary heart disease associated with diabetes persisted over time.     

Non-fasting serum triglyceride concentration and mortality from coronary heart disease and any cause in middle aged Norwegian women.

OBJECTIVE--To study the association between non-fasting serum triglyceride concentrations and mortality in women from coronary and cardiovascular disease and all causes. DESIGN--Follow up by ambulatory teams of men and women who underwent cardiovascular screening for a mean of 14.6 years. SETTING--National health screening service in Norway. SUBJECTS--25,058 men and 24,535 women aged 35-49 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Predictive value of non-fasting serum triglyceride concentrations. RESULTS--At initial screening total serum cholesterol concentration, serum triglyceride concentration, blood pressure, height, and weight were measured, and self reported information about smoking habits, physical activity, and time since last meal were recorded. During subsequent follow up 108 women died from coronary heart disease, 238 from cardiovascular diseases, and 931 from all causes. In women mortality increased steadily with increasing triglyceride concentration for all three causes of death. With the proportional hazards model and adjustment for age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol concentration, time since last meal, and number of cigarettes a day the relative risk between triglyceride concentration > or = 3.5 mmol/l and < 1.5 mmol/l was 4.7 (95% confidence interval 2.5 to 8.9) for deaths from coronary heart disease, 3.0 (1.9 to 4.8) for deaths from cardiovascular disease, 2.3 (1.8 to 2.9) for total deaths in all women. CONCLUSIONS--A raised non-fasting concentration of triglycerides is an independent risk factor for mortality from coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease, and any cause mortality among middle aged Norwegian women in contrast to what is seen in men.     

Contribution of climate and air pollution to variation in coronary heart disease mortality rates in England

There are substantial geographic variations in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in England that may in part be due to differences in climate and air pollution. An ecological cross-sectional multi-level analysis of male and female CHD mortality rates in all wards in England (1999-2004) was conducted to estimate the relative strength of the association between CHD mortality rates and three aspects of the physical environment--temperature, hours of sunshine and air quality. Models were adjusted for deprivation, an index measuring the healthiness of the lifestyle of populations, and urbanicity. In the fully adjusted model, air quality was not significantly associated with CHD mortality rates, but temperature and sunshine were both significantly negatively associated (p<0.05), suggesting that CHD mortality rates were higher in areas with lower average temperature and hours of sunshine. After adjustment for the unhealthy lifestyle of populations and deprivation, the climate variables explained at least 15% of large scale variation in CHD mortality rates. The results suggest that the climate has a small but significant independent association with CHD mortality rates in England.