Incidence of HIV-1 infection in a rural region of Uganda.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the incidence of infection with HIV-1 and the risk factors associated with seroconversion in three geographical strata of a rural Ugandan district. DESIGN--Serological, sociodemographic, and behavioural surveys of everyone aged 13 or more in 21 randomly selected communities at baseline and one year later. SETTING--Rural population of Rakai district, southwestern Uganda, residing in main road trading centres, secondary trading villages, and agricultural villages. SUBJECTS--In 1989, 1292 adults provided a blood sample and interview data; one year later, 778 survivors (77%) who had been seronegative at baseline provided follow up data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidence of HIV infection in relation to individual characteristics and risk factors, including place of residence. RESULTS--Incidence of HIV infection in all adults was 2.1/100 person years of observation (SE 0.5 (95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1)); in people aged 15-39 the incidence was 3.2/100 person years. Incidence was highest in men and women aged 20-24 (9.2/100 person years (3.9) and 6.8/100 person years (2.9) respectively). Risk factors significantly associated with seroconversion were age 24 and under and two or more sexual partners. Between the surveys the proportion of all respondents reporting high risk behaviour (two or more partners) significantly increased from 8.9% to 12.3%. CONCLUSIONS--Despite preventive programmes and substantial knowledge about AIDS the incidence of HIV infection remains high in this rural population. Prevention aimed at vulnerable rural communities is urgently needed to contain the HIV epidemic.     

Time trends and demography of mortality after fractured neck of femur in an English population, 1968-98: database study

Objectives To investigate time trends in mortality after admission to hospital for fractured neck of femur from 1968 to 1998, and to report on the effects of demographic factors on mortality.Design Analysis of hospital inpatient statistics for fractured neck of femur, incorporating linkage to death certificates.Setting Four counties in southern England.Subjects 32 590 people aged 65 years or over admitted to hospital with fractured neck of femur between 1968 and 1998.Main outcome measures Case fatality rates at 30, 90, and 365 days after admission, and standardised mortality ratios at monthly intervals up to one year after admission.Results Case fatality rates declined between the 1960s and the early 1980s, but there was no appreciable fall thereafter. They increased sharply with increasing age: for example, fatality rates at 30 days in 1984-98 increased from 4% in men aged 64-69 years to 31% in those aged ≥ 90. They were higher in men than women, and in social classes IV and V than in classes I and II. In the first month after fracture, standardised mortality ratios in women were 16 times higher, and those in men 12 times higher, than mortality in the same age group in the general population.Conclusions The high mortality rates, and the fact that they have not fallen over the past 20 years, reinforce the need for measures to prevent osteoporosis and falls and their consequences in elderly people. Whether post-fracture mortality has fallen to an irreducible minimum, or whether further decline is possible, is unclear.     

Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking,Alcohol, Physical Inactivity,and Diet

BackgroundBehaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death.MethodsA predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death—the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)—was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model.FindingsThe MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867–0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868–0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation).ConclusionsMultivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population.     

Mortality and Life Expectancy in Homeless Men and Women in Rotterdam: 2001–2010

Background

Data on mortality among homeless people are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to describe mortality patterns within a cohort of homeless adults in Rotterdam (the Netherlands) and to assess excess mortality as compared to the general population in that city.

Methods

Based on 10-year follow-up of homeless adults aged ≥ 20 years who visited services for homeless people in Rotterdam in 2001, and on vital statistics, we assessed the association of mortality with age, sex and type of service used (e.g. only day care, convalescence care, other) within the homeless cohort, and also compared mortality between the homeless and general population using Poisson regression. Life tables and decomposition methods were used to examine differences in life expectancy.

Results

During follow-up, of the 2096 adult homeless 265 died. Among the homeless, at age 30 years no significant sex differences were found in overall mortality rates and life expectancy. Compared with the general Rotterdam population, mortality rates were 3.5 times higher in the homeless cohort. Excess mortality was larger in women (rate ratio [RR] RR 5.56, 95% CI 3.95–7.82) as compared to men (RR 3.31, 95% CI 2.91–3.77), and decreased with age (RR 7.67, 95% CI 6.87–8.56 for the age group 20–44 and RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.41–1.88 for the age group 60+ years). Life expectancy at age 30 years was 11.0 (95% CI 9.1–12.9) and 15.9 (95% CI 10.3–21.5) years lower for homeless men and women compared to men and women in the general population respectively.

Conclusion

Homeless adults face excessive losses in life expectancy, with greatest disadvantages among homeless women and the younger age groups.     

Socioeconomic differences in mortality among diabetic people in Finland: five year follow up.

OBJECTIVE: To compare socioeconomic differences in mortality (by cause of death) among diabetic people with those in the rest of the population. DESIGN: Five year follow up of mortality in the population of Finland, comparing people with diabetes and those without diabetes. SETTING: Finland. SUBJECTS: All residents of Finland aged 30 to 74 included in the 1980 census. Subjects were classified as diabetic (230,000 person years) or other (12,400,000 person years) according to whether they were exempted from charges for medication for diabetes. During 1981-5 there were 114,058 deaths, of which 11,215 were in people with diabetes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age standardised mortality by sex, social class, and cause of death for the diabetic and non-diabetic populations. RESULTS: No significant social class differences in mortality were found among women with diabetes. Among diabetic men there was a slight increasing trend in mortality from the upper while collar group to the unskilled blue collar workers but it was much less steep than that of non-diabetic men. CONCLUSIONS: Among people with diabetes in Finland the quality of treatment and compliance with treatment probably do not vary by socioeconomic status. Health education for diabetic people seems to be effective in all socioeconomic strata; in people from the lower strata this leads to greater changes because their health behavior was originally less good.     

Secular decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in adults with diabetes mellitus: cohort study

Objective To examine trends in fatal coronary heart disease in adults with and without diabetes.Design Cohort study.Setting Two surveys of the Nord-Trøndelag health study (HUNT), a population based study in Norway.Participants 74 914 men and women from the first survey (1984-6) and 64 829 from the second survey (1995-7).Main outcome measure Age specific mortality from coronary heart disease among adults with and without diabetes during two consecutive nine year follow-up periods.Results A total of 2623 men and 1583 women died from coronary heart disease. Mortality rates were substantially lower during the most recent follow-up period: among men aged 70-79 without diabetes, deaths per 1000 person years declined from 16.38 to 8.79 (reduction 48%, 95% confidence interval 39% to 55%) and among women aged 70-79 from 6.84 to 2.68 (62%, 52% to 70%). Among the same age group with diabetes, deaths per 1000 person years in men declined from 38.97 to 17.89 (54%, 32% to 69%) and in women from 28.15 to 11.83 (59%, 37% to 73%). The reduction was more noticeable in age groups younger than 70 at baseline, and less pronounced among people aged 80 or more. Mortality from coronary heart disease was more than twofold higher in people with than without diabetes, with a slightly stronger association in women. The difference in mortality by diabetes status remained almost unchanged from the first to the second survey.Conclusion The strong general reduction in mortality rates from coronary heart disease from the first to the second follow-up period also benefited people with diabetes, but the more than twofold higher mortality from coronary heart disease associated with diabetes persisted over time.     

HTLV-1 and HIV-2 infection are associated with increased mortality in a rural West African community

Background

Survival of people with HIV-2 and HTLV-1 infection is better than that of HIV-1 infected people, but long-term follow-up data are rare. We compared mortality rates of HIV-1, HIV-2, and HTLV-1 infected subjects with those of retrovirus-uninfected people in a rural community in Guinea-Bissau.

Methods

In 1990, 1997 and 2007, adult residents (aged ≥15 years) were interviewed, a blood sample was drawn and retroviral status was determined. An annual census was used to ascertain the vital status of all subjects. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HR), comparing retrovirus-infected versus uninfected people.

Results

A total of 5376 subjects were included; 197 with HIV-1, 424 with HIV-2 and 325 with HTLV-1 infection. The median follow-up time was 10.9 years (range 0.0–20.3). The crude mortality rates were 9.6 per 100 person-years of observation (95% confidence interval 7.1-12.9) for HIV-1, 4.1 (3.4–5.0) for HIV-2, 3.6 (2.9–4.6) for HTLV-1, and 1.6 (1.5–1.8) for retrovirus-negative subjects. The HR comparing the mortality rate of infected to that of uninfected subjects varied significantly with age. The adjusted HR for HIV-1 infection varied from 4.0 in the oldest age group (≥60 years) to 12.7 in the youngest (15–29 years). The HR for HIV-2 infection varied from 1.2 (oldest) to 9.1 (youngest), and for HTLV-1 infection from 1.2 (oldest) to 3.8 (youngest).

Conclusions

HTLV-1 infection is associated with significantly increased mortality. The mortality rate of HIV-2 infection, although lower than that of HIV-1 infection, is also increased, especially among young people.     

Threshold Levels of Infant and Under-Five Mortality for Crossover between Life Expectancies at Ages Zero,One and Five in India: A Decomposition Analysis

Objectives

Under the prevailing conditions of imbalanced life table and historic gender discrimination in India, our study examines crossover between life expectancies at ages zero, one and five years for India and quantifies the relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards this crossover.

Methods

We estimate threshold levels of infant and under-five mortality required for crossover using age specific death rates during 1981–2009 for 16 Indian states by sex (comprising of India’s 90% population in 2011). Kitagawa decomposition equations were used to analyse relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards crossover.

Findings

India experienced crossover between life expectancies at ages zero and five in 2004 for menand in 2009 for women; eleven and nine Indian states have experienced this crossover for men and women, respectively. Men usually experienced crossover four years earlier than the women. Improvements in mortality below ages five have mostly contributed towards this crossover. Life expectancy at age one exceeds that at age zero for both men and women in India except for Kerala (the only state to experience this crossover in 2000 for men and 1999 for women).

Conclusions

For India, using life expectancy at age zero and under-five mortality rate together may be more meaningful to measure overall health of its people until the crossover. Delayed crossover for women, despite higher life expectancy at birth than for men reiterates that Indian women are still disadvantaged and hence use of life expectancies at ages zero, one and five become important for India. Greater programmatic efforts to control leading causes of death during the first month and 1–59 months in high child mortality areas can help India to attain this crossover early.     

Mortality in young offenders: retrospective cohort study

Objectives To estimate overall and cause specific standardised mortality ratios in young offenders.Design Comparison of mortality data in cohort of young offenders.Settings State of Victoria, Australia.Subjects Cohort of young offenders aged 10-20 years with a first custodial sentence from 1 January 1988 to 31 December 1999.Main outcome measures Deaths ascertained by matching with the national death index, a database containing records of all deaths in Australia since 1980. Death rates in the reference Victorian population used to calculate standardised mortality ratios.Results The offender cohort comprised 2621 men and 228 women with 11 333 person years of observation. The median age of first detention was 17.9 years for men and 18.4 years for women. Median follow up was 3.3 years for men and 1.4 years for women. Overall standardised mortality ratio adjusted for age (expressed as a ratio) was 9.4 (95% confidence interval 7.4 to 11.9) for men and 41.3 (20.2 to 84.7) for women. Cause specific standardised mortality ratios for men were 25.7 (17.9 to 36.9) for drug related causes, 9.2 (5.8 to 15) for suicide, and 5.7 (3.6 to 9.2) for non-intentional injury. A quarter of drug related deaths in men aged 15-19 years were in offenders.Conclusions Social policies for young offenders should address both the prevalent drug and mental health problems as well the high levels of social disadvantage.     

Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Total Mortality in Adults with Type 1 Diabetes: Scottish Registry Linkage Study

Background

Randomized controlled trials have shown the importance of tight glucose control in type 1 diabetes (T1DM), but few recent studies have evaluated the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality among adults with T1DM. We evaluated these risks in adults with T1DM compared with the non-diabetic population in a nationwide study from Scotland and examined control of CVD risk factors in those with T1DM.

Methods and Findings

The Scottish Care Information-Diabetes Collaboration database was used to identify all people registered with T1DM and aged ≥20 years in 2005–2007 and to provide risk factor data. Major CVD events and deaths were obtained from the national hospital admissions database and death register. The age-adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) for CVD and mortality in T1DM (n = 21,789) versus the non-diabetic population (3.96 million) was estimated using Poisson regression. The age-adjusted IRR for first CVD event associated with T1DM versus the non-diabetic population was higher in women (3.0: 95% CI 2.4–3.8, p<0.001) than men (2.3: 2.0–2.7, p<0.001) while the IRR for all-cause mortality associated with T1DM was comparable at 2.6 (2.2–3.0, p<0.001) in men and 2.7 (2.2–3.4, p<0.001) in women. Between 2005–2007, among individuals with T1DM, 34 of 123 deaths among 10,173 who were <40 years and 37 of 907 deaths among 12,739 who were ≥40 years had an underlying cause of death of coma or diabetic ketoacidosis. Among individuals 60–69 years, approximately three extra deaths per 100 per year occurred among men with T1DM (28.51/1,000 person years at risk), and two per 100 per year for women (17.99/1,000 person years at risk). 28% of those with T1DM were current smokers, 13% achieved target HbA_1c of <7% and 37% had very poor (≥9%) glycaemic control. Among those aged ≥40, 37% had blood pressures above even conservative targets (≥140/90 mmHg) and 39% of those ≥40 years were not on a statin. Although many of these risk factors were comparable to those previously reported in other developed countries, CVD and mortality rates may not be generalizable to other countries. Limitations included lack of information on the specific insulin therapy used.

Conclusions

Although the relative risks for CVD and total mortality associated with T1DM in this population have declined relative to earlier studies, T1DM continues to be associated with higher CVD and death rates than the non-diabetic population. Risk factor management should be improved to further reduce risk but better treatment approaches for achieving good glycaemic control are badly needed. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Infection with HIV and hepatitis C virus among injecting drug users in a prevention setting: retrospective cohort study

Objectives: To estimate the incidence of HIV and hepatitis C virus and risk factors for seroconversion among a cohort of injecting drug users. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Primary healthcare facility in central Sydney. Subjects: Injecting drug users tested for HIV-1 antibody (n=1179) and antibodies to hepatitis C virus (n=1078) from February 1992 to October 1995. Main outcome measures: Incidence of HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus among seronegative subjects who injected drugs and underwent repeat testing. Demographic and behavioural risk factors for hepatitis seroconversion. Results: Incidence of HIV-1 among 426 initially seronegative injecting drug users was 0.17/100 person years (two seroconversions) compared with an incidence of hepatitis C virus of 20.9/100 person years (31 seroconversions) among 152 injecting drug users initially negative for hepatitis C virus. Incidence of hepatitis C virus among injecting drug users aged less than 20 years was 75.6/100 person years. Independent risk factors for hepatitis C virus seroconversion were age less than 20 years and a history of imprisonment. Conclusions: In a setting where prevention measures have contributed to the maintenance of low prevalence and incidence of HIV-1, transmission of hepatitis C virus continues at extremely high levels, particularly among young injecting drug users.

Key messages

• The prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus is high, while the prevalence and incidence of HIV remains low among injecting drug users
• Young age and history of imprisonment are risk factors for acquisition of hepatitis C virus infection
• HIV prevention strategies have been relatively ineffective in preventing hepatitis C virus infection in this population
• The role of imprisonment in the acquisition of hepatitis C infection should be further investigated

     

Seroprevalence of and risk factors for HIV-1 infection in injection drug users in Montreal and Toronto: a collaborative study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of antibodies to HIV-1 and risk factors for HIV-1 infection among injection drug users. DESIGN: Questionnaire survey. A venous blood sample was taken for HIV-1 antibody testing. SETTING: Montreal and Toronto. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 810 subjects who had used injection drugs in the previous 6 months recruited mainly from treatment centres and from the street in Montreal (425 subjects) and from treatment centres in Toronto (385 subjects) between September 1988 and September 1990. The overall participation rate was 82%. OUTCOME MEASURES: HIV-1 seropositivity, sociodemographic and behavioural risk factors for HIV-1 infection. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence rate of HIV-1 infection was 4.8% (95% confidence limits [CL] 3.5 and 6.5). In Montreal the rate was 8.2% (95% CL 6.0 and 11.2), and in Toronto 1.0% (95% CL 0.4 and 2.6) (p < 0.001). Seropositive subjects were significantly older (p = 0.041) and were more likely to have a history of imprisonment (p = 0.006) than seronegative subjects. In univariate analysis seropositivity was associated with the following behaviours: more frequent cocaine use (p < 0.001), injecting drugs in "shooting galleries" (p = 0.002), sharing equipment with a person known to be HIV-1 seropositive (p = 0.006), "booting" fresh blood (p = 0.004), homosexual or bisexual orientation (p = 0.006), engaging in prostitution (p < 0.001) and, for men, number of male sexual partners in the previous 6 months (p = 0.007). In multivariate analysis the determinants of HIV-1 seropositivity were Montreal as the city of recruitment (odds ratio [OR] 6.7, 95% CL 2.32 and 19.42), engaging in prostitution (OR 2.13, 95% CL 1.01 and 4.75), a history of imprisonment (OR 3.51, 95% CL 1.33 and 9.29) and sharing equipment with a person known to be HIV-1 seropositive (OR 4.43, 95% CL 1.43 and 13.74). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that HIV-1 is circulating among injection drug users in Montreal and Toronto and that both drug use and sexual behaviours are implicated in the transmission of infection in the populations studied. Adapted preventive programs should be developed to prevent further spread of HIV-1 infection in this population.     

Male Out-Migration: A Factor for the Spread of HIV Infection among Married Men and Women in Rural India

Introduction

Thus far, the reasons for increasing HIV prevalence in northern and eastern Indian states are unknown. We investigated the role of male out-migration in the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection through a case-control study in rural India.

Methods

Currently married men and women were recruited from HIV testing and treatment centers across seven selected districts with high rates of male out-migration in eastern and northern India in 2010 using a case-control study design. Case subjects (men: 595, women: 609) were people who tested HIV seropositive and control subjects (men: 611, women: 600) were those tested HIV seronegative. For each gender, we obtained adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and population attributable risks (PARs) for migration, and behavioral factors.

Results

For men, the prevalence of HIV was significantly higher among those with a migration history (AOR, 4·4); for women, the prevalence of HIV was higher among those with migrant husbands (AOR, 2·3). For both genders, the returned male migration (men: AOR, 3·7; women: AOR, 2·8) was significantly associated with higher prevalence of HIV infection. The PAR associated with male migration was higher for men (54·5%–68·6%) than for women (32·7%–56·9%) across the study areas.

Discussion

Male out-migration is the most important risk factor influencing the spread of HIV infection in rural areas with high out-migration rates, thereby emphasizing the need for interventions, particularly, for returned migrants and spouses of those migrants.     

Life expectancy at birth for people with serious mental illness and other major disorders from a secondary mental health care case register in London

Objective

Despite improving healthcare, the gap in mortality between people with serious mental illness (SMI) and general population persists, especially for younger age groups. The electronic database from a large and comprehensive secondary mental healthcare provider in London was utilized to assess the impact of SMI diagnoses on life expectancy at birth.

Method

People who were diagnosed with SMI (schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, bipolar disorder), substance use disorder, and depressive episode/disorder before the end of 2009 and under active review by the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust (SLAM) in southeast London during 2007–09 comprised the sample, retrieved by the SLAM Case Register Interactive Search (CRIS) system. We estimated life expectancy at birth for people with SMI and each diagnosis, from national mortality returns between 2007–09, using a life table method.

Results

A total of 31,719 eligible people, aged 15 years or older, with SMI were analyzed. Among them, 1,370 died during 2007–09. Compared to national figures, all disorders were associated with substantially lower life expectancy: 8.0 to 14.6 life years lost for men and 9.8 to 17.5 life years lost for women. Highest reductions were found for men with schizophrenia (14.6 years lost) and women with schizoaffective disorders (17.5 years lost).

Conclusion

The impact of serious mental illness on life expectancy is marked and generally higher than similarly calculated impacts of well-recognised adverse exposures such as smoking, diabetes and obesity. Strategies to identify and prevent causes of premature death are urgently required.     

Cardiovascular diseases in China.

Statistics from the National Population Census of China revealed a significant increase in the Chinese population, from 590 million in 1953 to 1.26 billion in 2000. The average life expectancy increased to 71.4 years in 2000 compared with the expectancy of 68.6 years a decade before. World Health Organization statistics on the death rate for total cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, and stroke in men and women aged 35-74 years revealed discrepancies between rural and urban parts of China. The China Multicenter Collaborative Study of Cardiovascular Epidemiology indicated that cardiovascular disease was the major cause of death for both men and women, with stroke accounting for over 40% of deaths. Ischemia was shown to be the most common subtype of stroke in both sexes. Smoking was an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The World Health Organization reported that the death rate attributable to tobacco was 6.0% worldwide and 9.2% in China in 1990. The latter is projected to reach 16.6% by 2020. In China, the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes mellitus, the two key risk factors of cardiovascular disease, have also increased significantly in the past 20 years. In addition, elevated blood pressure and plasma cholesterol were two important determinants of increased cardiovascular disease in eastern Asia. These studies indicate that an integrated management of comprehensive risk is urgently required to address China's increasing cardiovascular disease burden.     

Estimation of HIV-Testing Rates to Maximize Early Diagnosis-Derived Benefits at the Individual and Population Level

Background

In HIV infection, initiation of treatment is associated with improved clinical outcom and reduced rate of sexual transmission. However, difficulty in detecting infection in early stages impairs those benefits. We determined the minimum testing rate that maximizes benefits derived from early diagnosis.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model of HIV infection, diagnosis and treatment that allows studying both diagnosed and undiagnosed populations, as well as determining the impact of modifying time to diagnosis and testing rates. The model’s external consistency was assessed by estimating time to AIDS and death in absence of treatment as well as by estimating age-dependent mortality rates during treatment, and comparing them with data previously reported from CASCADE and DHCS cohorts.

Results

In our model, life expectancy of patients diagnosed before 8 years post infection is the same as HIV-negative population. After this time point, age at death is significantly dependent on diagnosis delay but initiation of treatment increases life expectancy to similar levels as HIV-negative population. Early mortality during HAART is dependent on treatment CD4 threshold until 6 years post infection and becomes dependent on diagnosis delay after 6 years post infection. By modifying testing rates, we estimate that an annual testing rate of 20% leads to diagnosis of 90% of infected individuals within the first 8.2 years of infection and that current testing rate in middle-high income settings stands close to 10%. In addition, many differences between low-income and middle-high incomes can be predicted by solely modifying the diagnosis delay.

Conclusions

To increase testing rate of undiagnosed HIV population by two-fold in middle-high income settings will minimize early mortality during initiation of treatment and global mortality rate as well as maximize life expectancy. Our results highlight the impact of achieving early diagnosis and the importance of strongly work on improving HIV testing rates.     

Impaired lung function and mortality risk in men and women: findings from the Renfrew and Paisley prospective population study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relation between forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and subsequent mortality. DESIGN: Prospective general population study. SETTING: Renfrew and Paisley, Scotland. SUBJECTS: 7058 men and 8353 women aged 45-64 years at baseline screening in 1972-6. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Mortality from all causes, ischaemic heart disease, cancer, hung and other cancers, stroke, respiratory disease, and other causes of death after 15 years of follow up. RESULTS: 2545 men and 1894 women died during the follow up period. Significant trends of increasing risk with diminishing FEV1 are apparent for both sexes for all the causes of death examined after adjustment for age, cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, cholesterol concentration, body mass index, and social class. The relative hazard ratios for all cause mortality for subjects in the lowest fifth of the FEV1 distribution were 1.92 (95% confidence interval 1.68 to 2.20) for men and 1.89 (1.63 to 2.20) for women. Corresponding relative hazard ratios were 1.56 (1.26 to 1.92) and 1.88 (1.44 to 2.47) for ischaemic heart disease, 2.53 (1.69 to 3.79) and 4.37 (1.84 to 10.42) for lung cancer, and 1.66 (1.07 to 2.59) and 1.65 (1.09 to 2.49) for stroke. Reduced FEV1 was also associated with an increased risk for each cause of death examined except cancer for lifelong nonsmokers. CONCLUSIONS: Impaired lung function is a major clinical indicator of mortality risk in men and women for a wide range of diseases. The use of FEV1 as part of any health assessment of middle aged patients should be considered. Smokers with reduced FEV1 should form a priority group for targeted advice to stop smoking.     

Is height related to longevity?

Over the last 100 years, studies have provided mixed results on the mortality and health of tall and short people. However, during the last 30 years, several researchers have found a negative correlation between greater height and longevity based on relatively homogeneous deceased population samples. Findings based on millions of deaths suggest that shorter, smaller bodies have lower death rates and fewer diet-related chronic diseases, especially past middle age. Shorter people also appear to have longer average lifespans. The authors suggest that the differences in longevity between the sexes is due to their height differences because men average about 8.0% taller than women and have a 7.9% lower life expectancy at birth. Animal experiments also show that smaller animals within the same species generally live longer. The relation between height and health has become more important in recent years because rapid developments in genetic engineering will offer parents the opportunity to increase the heights of their children in the near future. The authors contend that we should not be swept along into a new world of increasingly taller generations without careful consideration of the impact of a worldwide population of taller and heavier people.     

Important risk factors for death in adults: a 10-year follow-up of the Nutrition Canada survey cohort.

Data on mortality among over 8000 Canadians aged 35 to 79 years who participated in the Nutrition Canada survey are presented. The effects of various risk factors on mortality were assessed with a multivariate Poisson regression analysis. Factors associated with a significantly increased risk of death over a 10-year follow-up period ending in 1981 included cigarette smoking, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. A shallow U-shaped mortality pattern was observed for body mass index and for serum cholesterol level. No statistically significant increases in risk were associated with alcohol consumption. The population attributable risks for smoking, hypertension and diabetes were 39%, 8% and 6% respectively for men and 21%, 12% and 7% respectively for women.     

Attributable causes of esophageal cancer incidence and mortality in china

Background

To estimate the contribution of tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake to esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in China.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We calculated the proportion of esophageal cancer attributable to four known modifiable risk factors [population attributable fraction (PAF)]. Exposure data was taken from meta-analyses and large-scale national surveys of representative samples of the Chinese population. Data on relative risks were also from meta-analyses and large-scale prospective studies. Esophageal cancer mortality and incidence came from the 3^rd national death cause survey and population-based cancer registries in China. We estimated that 87,065 esophageal cancer deaths (men 67,686; women: 19,379) and 108,206 cases (men: 83,968, women: 24,238) were attributable to tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake in China in 2005. About 17.9% of esophageal cancer deaths among men and 1.9% among women were attributable to tobacco smoking. About 15.2% of esophageal cancer deaths in men and 1.3% in women were caused by alcohol drinking. Low vegetable intake was responsible for 4.3% esophageal cancer deaths in men and 4.1% in women. The fraction of esophageal cancer deaths attributable to low fruit intake was 27.1% in men and 28.0% in women. Overall, 46% of esophageal cancers (51% in men and 33% in women) were attributable to these four modifiable risk factors.

Conclusions/Significance

Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake were responsible for 46% of esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in China in 2005. These findings provide useful data for developing guidelines for esophageal cancer prevention and control in China.