A two-scale network dynamic model for human mobility process

The technological changes and educational expansion have created the heterogeneity in the human species. Clearly, this heterogeneity generates a structure in the population dynamics, namely: citizen, permanent resident, visitor, and etc. Furthermore, as the heterogeneity in the population increases, the human mobility between meta-populations patches also increases. Depending on spatial scales, a meta-population patch can be decomposed into sub-patches, for examples: homes, neighborhoods, towns, etc. Members of the population can move between the sub-patches. The dynamics of human mobility in a heterogeneous and scaled structured population is still its infancy level. In this work, an attempt is made to investigate the human mobility dynamics of heterogeneous and scaled structured population. We present a two scaled human mobility model for a meta-population. The sub regions and regions are interlinked via intra-and inter regional transport network systems. Under various types of growth order assumptions on the intra and interregional residence times of the residents of a sub region, different patterns of static behavior of the mobility process is studied. In addition, the results reveal that the system has a natural tendency to quarantine itself without total breaking a link in the transportation network system. Moreover, there is a threshold point for the largest intra regional visiting time of residents of a given sub region that leads to either a total isolation of the residents from other sub regions within the region or a partial isolation of residents from some of the sub regions within the region.     

Extinction risk of a meta-population: aggregation approach

Aggregation of variables of a complex mathematical model with realistic structure gives a simplified model which is more suitable than the original one when the amount of data for parameter estimation is limited. Here we explore use of a formula derived for a single unstructured population (canonical model) in predicting the extinction time for a population living in multiple habitats. In particular we focus multiple populations each following logistic growth with demographic and environmental stochasticities, and examine how the mean extinction time depends on the migration and environmental correlation. When migration rate and/or environmental correlation are very large or very small, we may express the mean extinction time exactly using the formula with properly modified parameters. When parameters are of intermediate magnitude, we generate a Monte Carlo time series of the population size for the realistic structured model, estimate the "effective parameters" by fitting the time series to the canonical model, and then calculate the mean extinction time using the formula for a single population. The mean extinction time predicted by the formula was close to those obtained from direct computer simulation of structured models. We conclude that the formula for an unstructured single-population model has good approximation capability and can be applicable in estimating the extinction risk of the structured meta-population model for a limited data set.     

榕树–榕小蜂协同进化中的非对称性相互作用及其集合种群效应

在协同进化研究中,传统观点认为物种之间的相互作用是对称性的,在进化过程中将形成一个稳定的均衡状态或进化稳定策略。然而,近来的观测和实验数据表明,物种间的协同进化可能存在非对称性相互作用,而且这种非对称性可能造成集合种群效应(metapopulation effect)或形成非均衡状态(例如混沌,chaos)。本文利用"榕树–榕小蜂"这一经典的协同进化模式系统来介绍协同进化过程中的非对称性相互作用,以及这种非对称性如何产生集合种群效应。在榕–蜂共生系统中,栖身于榕果中的榕小蜂除了传粉小蜂之外,还有一些"投机"的非传粉小蜂。非传粉小蜂比传粉小蜂具有更强的竞争力,而榕树则可惩罚不合作的非传粉蜂,同时奖励合作的传粉小蜂,从而形成了复杂的非对称性种间相互作用。在某个斑块生境中,非传粉小蜂通过竞争作用排斥传粉小蜂,然而随着非传粉小蜂在蜂群中的比例不断升高,榕树惩罚作用(如落果等)常常会导致整个非传粉蜂群的数量急剧下降,甚至局域性灭绝。随后,其他斑块的传粉小蜂则迁移过来填补空白。然而,随着传粉小蜂种群的数量增长,该斑块又会集聚更多的投机性非传粉小蜂,进而诱发榕树再次进行惩罚。这样的非对称性相互作用导致了非传粉小蜂、传粉小蜂以及榕树种群的集合效应,其种群大小呈现周期性的"此消彼长"式的循环。     

复合种群管理的风险评估——以日本鲐为例

单一种群是目前渔业资源评估的基本假设,但渔业资源常由多个地方种群或产卵种群组成,并且种群间存在交流,构成复合种群。根据复合种群概念,以东、黄海日本鲐为例,对其12种种群动态情况进行了模拟。利用模拟所得的数据及剩余产量模型,分别分析了在复合种群、两独立种群及单一种群假设下所设置的10种评估管理方案,结果表明:(1)基于复合种群假设的评估管理方案与模拟的种群动态一致,在单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)观测误差较小情况下,该方案为最佳方案,可获得最大可持续产量,但随CPUE观测误差增大,该方案种群灭绝率增大,管理效果随之退化。(2)基于两独立种群假设的评估管理方案均使资源过度开发,不利于资源可持续利用。(3)在单一种群假设下,选择不同CPUE作为资源指数和采用不同捕捞量分配方法的评估管理方案存在过度捕捞和开发不足两种状况,其管理效果受种群本身参数及空间交换率等因素的影响而不同;若采用的CPUE反映部分种群动态信息,则其评估管理方案至少在一种模拟情况下出现种群100%灭绝;若CPUE能反映整个种群资源量的动态变化,且捕捞量能按种群的空间结构进行分配,则管理效果与(1)类似,但不能获得最大可持续产量,若忽略种群的空间结构影响而均匀分配捕捞量,则至少在一种模拟情况下出现种群100%灭绝。据此,对于复合种群的管理,建议:(A)如果种群数据收集及数据精度能得到保证,该资源的评估与管理应基于复合种群假设;(B)如果目前收集种群数据存在较大困难,且CPUE数据存在较大误差,则可采用单一种群假设,但必须设定更保守的捕捞量和采用基于种群空间结构的总许可渔获量(TAC)管理方案;(C)在制定渔业管理政策时,应结合种群生态、数据、模型假设及参数估计方法等方面的不确定性对管理控制规则进行系统的管理策略评价以避免风险。     

Characterization of erythromycin resistance in Campylobacter coli and Campylobacter jejuni isolated from pig offal in New Zealand

AIMS: To determine the level and mechanism(s) of antimicrobial resistance in Campylobacter isolates obtained from human and environmental sources from South Canterbury, New Zealand. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 251 Campylobacter isolates were tested for susceptibility to ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, nalidixic acid and tetracycline using disc diffusion assays. Five pig offal isolates were observed to be highly erythromycin resistant, with minimal inhibitory concentrations determined to be >/=256 microg ml(-1). Nucleotide sequencing of the 23S ribosomal DNA (rDNA) in these resistant isolates identified an A --> G change at Escherichia coli position 2059 that has been previously implicated in erythromycin resistance in Campylobacter coli. Macrorestriction profiling using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis showed these isolates were nonclonal. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of Campylobacter isolates from South Canterbury remain sensitive to the most clinically relevant antimicrobial agents. Our results support other reports showing that specific variations in the 23S rDNA contribute to erythromycin resistance. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACTS OF THE STUDY: This study defines the baseline frequency of antimicrobial resistance associated with Campylobacter isolates from South Canterbury, and discusses the likely molecular mechanisms conferring erythromycin resistance in this organism. Resistance to erythromycin in these isolates is not linked to a dominant Campylobacter clone and has likely arisen independently in different genetic lines exposed to selective antimicrobial pressure.     

Characterization of antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli isolated from processed bison carcasses

AIM: To determine the phenotypic and genotypic antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of Escherichia coli from bison carcasses. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The antimicrobial resistance of 138 E. coli isolates recovered from processed bison carcasses was determined by using the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System panels, polymerase chain reaction assays, plasmid analysis and conjugation studies. RESULTS: Resistance to 14 of the 16 antimicrobials was observed. Twenty-three (16.7%) isolates displayed resistance to at least one antimicrobial agent. The most prevalent resistances were to tetracycline (13.0%), sulfamethoxazole (7.9%) and streptomycin (5.8%). No resistance was observed to amikacin and ciprofloxacin. Further analysis of 23 antimicrobial-resistant E. coli isolates showed the presence of resistance genes corresponding to their phenotypic profiles. Results of conjugation studies carried out showed most isolates tested were able to transfer their resistance to recipients. CONCLUSION: This study indicated that multidrug-resistant E. coli isolates are present in bison. However, the resistance rate is lower than that reported in other meat species. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The beneficial effects of antimicrobial-free feeding practice in bison may be promoting a reduction in the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in commensal flora of bison.     

Susceptibility of Arcobacter butzleri isolates to 23 antimicrobial agents

AIMS: The objective of this study was to determine the susceptibility of Arcobacter butzleri isolates to various antimicrobial agents used in the treatment of infectious diseases in humans and animals. METHODS AND RESULTS: Thirty-nine A. butzleri strains isolated from broiler chickens were tested for their susceptibility to 23 antimicrobial agents using a disc diffusion method. All isolates were resistant to aztreonam, cefuroxime sodium, cephalothin, orbenin, oxacillin, penicillin G and trimethoprim/sulphamethoxazol. Of the 39 isolates tested, 26 were also found resistant to amoxycillin, amoxycillin/clavulanic acid and ampicillin. One isolate was resistant to, and four showed intermediate level of resistance to, erythromycin. All isolates were susceptible to amikacin, chloramphenicol, danofloxacin, enrofloxacin, nitrofurantoin, nalidixic acid, tetracyclines and tobramycin. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the isolates were found resistant to antibiotics commonly used for the treatment of infectious bacterial diseases in humans and animals. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This study shows that A. butzleri strains vary in their resistance to certain kinds of antibiotics and caution should be taken when choosing a suitable antibiotic for the treatment of disease(s) caused by this organism.     

Methicillin resistance study in clinical isolates of coagulase-negative staphylococci and determination of their susceptibility to alternative antimicrobial agents

AIMS: To achieve reliable detection of methicillin resistance in clinical isolates of coagulase-negative staphylococci. METHODS AND RESULTS: Strains (105) were evaluated by normatized antimicrobial susceptibility methods, and for the presence of the methicillin resistance-determining mecA gene, using the polymerase chain reaction. Correlation between phenotypic and genotypic methods was obtained in 87.6% of the samples. Six strains, classified as methicillin-susceptible by phenotypic assays, revealed the presence of the mecA gene, indicating that methicillin resistance expression was probably repressed. Another seven isolates failed to show mecA amplification after displaying methicillin resistance in phenotypic evaluations. The susceptibility of the methicillin-resistant isolates to other antimicrobial agents was variable. CONCLUSION: Genotypic determination of the mecA gene proved to be the most reliable method for detection of methicillin resistance. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Correct assessment of methicillin resistance, such as that attained through genotyping, is essential for defining therapeutic strategies, particularly when treating severely compromised patients.     

A rapid molecular assay for the detection of antibiotic resistance determinants in causal agents of infective endocarditis

AIMS: To develop and employ a PCR amplification system, directly from clinical specimens, for the rapid molecular detection of common antimicrobial resistance genes for streptococci, staphylococci and enterococci organisms causing infective endocarditis (IE). METHODS AND RESULTS: Eleven antibiotic resistance genes were targeted by PCR along with four identification-related loci. Blood culture and heart valve material from staphylococcal endocarditis patients were directly examined for methicillin resistance. PCR conditions were optimized for the following antibiotic resistance loci: staphylococci (mecA, aacA-aphD), streptococci (PBP 1A, PBP 2B, gyrB, parE) and enterococci (vanA, vanB, vanC-1, vanC-2, aacA-aphD, aphA3). The presence of methicillin resistance was confirmed in one of the eight IE patients examined. CONCLUSION: This study presents a PCR amplification system for the detection of antibiotic resistance genes. Detection of such genes may indicate susceptibility of the causal agents of IE to commonly prescribed antimicrobial agents. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Rapid detection of antibiotic resistant organisms may reduce the use of inappropriate antibiotic agents or enable the use of the most appropriate combinations of antibiotics, other than those that would normally be prescribed empirically for IE. Such a method may be particularly valuable in cases of culture-negative endocarditis. Detection of antibiotic resistance genes by molecular-based techniques, namely PCR, will allow more directed antibiotic therapy and may also provide opportunities for earlier identification of resistant organisms.     

Antimicrobial resistance profiling and fla-typing of Irish thermophillic Campylobacter spp. of human and poultry origin

AIMS: To determine the genetic relationship between a random collection of Irish human and poultry Campylobacter isolates and to determine the frequency of antibiotic resistance. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sixty-six Campylobacter isolates (34 human and 32 poultry) were typed by restriction fragment length polymorphism of flagellin-A (flaA) PCR products (flaA-RFLP) and by sequencing of the short variable region of flaA (flaA-SVR). FlaA-RFLP identified 58 distinct profiles, while flaA-SVR identified 28 different alleles. The highest level of antibiotic resistance was found for ampicillin (48.5%) followed by nalidixic acid (42.2%) and ciprofloxacin (31.8%). In general, poultry isolates displayed a higher incidence of resistance to the antimicrobials tested than the human isolates. CONCLUSIONS: A high level of genetic diversity existed among the Campylobacter strains confirming the weak clonality of this species. There was no relationship between antimicrobial resistance and specific genotypes determined by flaA typing suggesting that resistance was due to pressures of antimicrobial therapy. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This study emphasizes the need for increased surveillance of antimicrobial susceptibility among Campylobacter isolates in Ireland and the implementation of more stringent control policies relating to the use of antimicrobials in the poultry industry.     

Influence of tetracycline exposure on tetracycline resistance and the carriage of tetracycline resistance genes within commensal Escherichia coli populations

AIMS: To assess the influence of incremental tetracycline exposure on the genetic basis of tetracycline resistance within faecal Escherichia coli. METHODS AND RESULTS: Through the adoption of a novel combination of multiple breakpoint selection, phenotypic characterization and the application of a polymerase chain reaction based gene identification system it proved possible to monitor the influence of antibiotic exposure on resistance gene possession. Using tetracycline as a case study a clear hierarchy was revealed between tet genes, strongly influenced by host antimicrobial exposure history. CONCLUSIONS: The antimicrobial exposure regime under which an animal is produced affects both the identity and magnitude of resistance gene possession of a selected bacterial population within its enteric microflora. Among the ramifications associated with such resistance gene selection is the degree of resistance conferred and the carriage of linked resistance determinants. This selection is applied by exposure to antibiotic concentrations well below recognized minimum inhibitory tetracycline concentration breakpoints widely adopted to characterize bacterial 'susceptibility'. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This study confirms the ability of minimal antibiotic exposure to select for the continued persistence of resistance genes within the enteric microflora. It is clearly demonstrated that different antimicrobial regimes select for different resistance genes, the implications of which are discussed.     

Antimicrobial resistance of Salmonella spp. from pigs at slaughter in Spain in 1993 and 2001

AIM: To compare the incidence of antimicrobial resistance among Salmonella serotypes isolated in a pig slaughterhouse in Zaragoza (Spain) during 1993 and 2001. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 168 isolates representing 10 serotypes were examined by disc diffusion method using 17 antibiotics. Data showed that the majority of the strains were resistant to streptomycin (97%), sulfadiazine (93.4%) and tetracycline (83.3%). A large proportion of the collection was multidrug resistant (MDR, resistance to four or more antibiotics) with a greater incidence in 2001. The findings imply an increasing incidence of MDR amongst S. Typhimurium, and all S. Typhimurium-definitive phage type (DT) 104 isolates were resistant to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, streptomycin, sulphonamide and tetracycline (R-ACSSuT). This resistance phenotype had spread among other phage and serotypes. Salmonella Ohio was also a MDR serotype and this is not a serotype normally associated with drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of the strains were MDR and this showed that pork products could be a potential vehicle of MDR Salmonella food-borne infections. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The findings may have significant public health consequences and could contribute to the development of useful practices aimed at limiting the transmission of MDR Salmonella serotypes through the food chain.     

How Fitness Reduced,Antimicrobial Resistant Bacteria Survive and Spread: A Multiple Pig - Multiple Bacterial Strain Model

More than 30% of E. coli strains sampled from pig farms in Denmark over the last five years were resistant to the commonly used antimicrobial tetracycline. This raises a number of questions: How is this high level sustained if resistant bacteria have reduced growth rates? Given that there are multiple susceptible and resistant bacterial strains in the pig intestines, how can we describe their coexistence? To what extent does the composition of these multiple strains in individual pigs influence the total bacterial population of the pig pen? What happens to a complex population when antimicrobials are used? To investigate these questions, we created a model where multiple strains of bacteria coexist in the intestines of pigs sharing a pen, and explored the parameter limits of a stable system; both with and without an antimicrobial treatment. The approach taken is a deterministic bacterial population model with stochastic elements of bacterial distributions and transmission. The rates that govern the model are process-oriented to represent growth, excretion, and uptake from environment, independent of herd and meta-population structures. Furthermore, an entry barrier and elimination process for the individual strains in each pig were implemented. We demonstrate how competitive growth between multiple bacterial strains in individual pigs, and the transmission between pigs in a pen allow for strains of antimicrobial resistant bacteria to persist in a pig population to different extents, and how quickly they can become dominant if antimicrobial treatment is initiated. The level of spread depends in a non-linear way of the parameters that govern excretion and uptake. Furthermore, the sampling of initial distributions of strains and stochastic transmission events give rise to large variation in how homogenous and how resistant the bacterial population becomes. Most important: resistant bacteria are demonstrated to survive with a disadvantage in growth rate of well over 10%.     

Salmonella isolated in sewage sludge traced back to human cases of salmonellosis

AIM: The main aim of this study was to investigate a possible connection between the Salmonella content in sewage sludge and human cases of salmonellosis. An additional aim was to survey the antimicrobial resistance situation in Salmonella isolated from Swedish sewage sludge. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Salmonella strains were compared by restriction enzyme analysis combined with pulsed field gel electrophoresis and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. This study suggests a link between Salmonella isolated from sewage sludge and human Salmonella isolates. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that Salmonella spp. isolated in sewage treatment plants (STP) originate from infected humans and survive treatment at STP. It also highlights the risk of spreading resistant Salmonella strains from sewage sludge to the environment. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: As Salmonella spp. originating from infected humans can survive the treatment at STP, the risk of Salmonella spp. being spread with sewage sludge to the environment and then to people and animals is enhanced. The threat to society is even worse if the bacteria are resistant to antimicrobial agents.     

Comparative analysis of antibiotic and antimicrobial biocide susceptibility data in clinical isolates of methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa between 1989 and 2000

AIMS: To analyse population minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) data from clinical strains of Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa for changes over a 10-year period and to look for correlations between the antimicrobials tested. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from the MIC study of 256 clinical isolates of Staph. aureus [169 methicillin-sensitive Staph. aureus (MSSA), 87 methicillin-resistant Staph. aureus (MRSA)] and 111 clinical isolates of Ps. aeruginosa against eight antimicrobial biocides and several clinically relevant antibiotics was analysed using anova, Spearman-Rho correlation and principal component analysis. Comparisons suggest that alterations in the mean susceptibility of Staph. aureus to antimicrobial biocides have occurred between 1989 and 2000, but that these changes were mirrored in MSSA and MRSA suggests that methicillin resistance has little to do with these changes. Between 1989 and 2000 a sub-population of MRSA has acquired a higher resistance to biocides, but this has not altered the antibiotic susceptibility of that group. In both Staph. aureus and Ps. aeruginosa several correlations (both positive and negative) between antibiotics and antimicrobial biocides were found. CONCLUSIONS: From the analyses of these clinical isolates it is very difficult to support a hypothesis that increased biocide resistance is a cause of increased antibiotic resistance either in Staph. aureus or in Ps. aeruginosa. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The observation of negative correlations between antibiotics and biocides may be a useful reason for the continued use of biocides promoting hygiene in the hospital environment.     

Occurrence, virulence characteristics and antimicrobial resistance of Escherichia coli O157 in slaughtered cattle and diarrhoeic calves in West Bengal, India

AIMS: (i) To study the occurrence of Escherichia coli serotype O157 in cattle stool in West Bengal, India, and (ii) the virulence properties and antimicrobial resistance of the E. coli isolates. METHODS AND RESULTS: Following enrichment in modified EC broth and plating onto HiCrome MS.O157 agar, a total of 14 strains of E. coli serotype O157 was isolated from faecal samples from two (2.04%) slaughtered cattle and six (7.59%) diarrhoeic calves. By multiplex PCR, Shiga toxin genes were detected in all the isolates. The enterohaemolysin phenotype was found in all, but one strain. Among 14 strains, ten were resistant to at least one of the antimicrobial agents tested. Multiple antibiotic resistance was frequent. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that occurrence of Shiga toxin-producing and multiple antibiotic-resistant E. coli O157 among cattle population in this region of India is significant. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Considering routine human contacts with cattle, a large human population in this region may be at risk for exposure to Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O157.     

Antimicrobial resistance survey in a river receiving effluents from freshwater fish farms

AIMS: The aims of this study were: (i) to determine the proportions of Aeromonas spp. resistant to florfenicol (FC), oxolinic acid (OA) and oxytetracycline (OTC) along a river receiving effluents from fish farms, and (ii) to assess the relevance of using this bacterial group as an indicator for studying the consequences of the use and release of these aquacultural antimicrobials in the freshwater environment, as compared with performing antimicrobial measurements in sediments. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sediment interstitial waters sampled along a river during two distinct climatic seasons were plated on an Aeromonas-selective medium supplemented or not with OA, OTC or FC. The October 2004 campaign showed an enrichment of OA- and OTC-resistant Aeromonas immediately downstream of the fish farms and a wastewater treatment plant. Two fish farms showed similar results in March 2005. In contrast, only 10 FC-resistant Aeromonas strains could be isolated, which revealed that minimum inhibitory concentrations of FC were greater than 64 microg ml(-1) and multiple antimicrobial resistances. Contamination of sediments by antimicrobials was detected but was not always co-localized with resistance peaks or known point sources of contamination. CONCLUSIONS: Aeromonas could be valuable indicators of OA, OTC and FC resistance in the freshwater environment. Fish farms contribute to the contamination of the river by antimicrobials and resistant bacteria. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Considering the still very low proportion of FC-resistant Aeromonas, this study can be considered as a reference for further studies about this recently introduced veterinary antimicrobial agent.