Comparison of Two Hybrid Models for Forecasting the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiangsu Province,China

Background

Cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) are widely distributed in eastern Asia, especially in China, Russia, and Korea. It is proved to be a difficult task to eliminate HFRS completely because of the diverse animal reservoirs and effects of global warming. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of HFRS.

Methods

Two hybrid models, one composed of nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) the other composed of generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and ARIMA were constructed to predict the incidence of HFRS in the future one year. Performances of the two hybrid models were compared with ARIMA model.

Results

The ARIMA, ARIMA-NARNN ARIMA-GRNN model fitted and predicted the seasonal fluctuation well. Among the three models, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model was the lowest both in modeling stage and forecasting stage. As for the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model, the MSE, MAE and MAPE of modeling performance and the MSE and MAE of forecasting performance were less than the ARIMA model, but the MAPE of forecasting performance did not improve.

Conclusion

Developing and applying the ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model is an effective method to make us better understand the epidemic characteristics of HFRS and could be helpful to the prevention and control of HFRS.     

Application of a Hybrid Model for Predicting the Incidence of Tuberculosis in Hubei,China

Background

A prediction model for tuberculosis incidence is needed in China which may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning health interventions and allocating health resources.

Methods

The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was first constructed with the data of tuberculosis report rate in Hubei Province from Jan 2004 to Dec 2011.The data from Jan 2012 to Jun 2012 were used to validate the model. Then the generalized regression neural network (GRNN)-ARIMA combination model was established based on the constructed ARIMA model. Finally, the fitting and prediction accuracy of the two models was evaluated.

Results

A total of 465,960 cases were reported between Jan 2004 and Dec 2011 in Hubei Province. The report rate of tuberculosis was highest in 2005 (119.932 per 100,000 population) and lowest in 2010 (84.724 per 100,000 population). The time series of tuberculosis report rate show a gradual secular decline and a striking seasonal variation. The ARIMA (2, 1, 0) × (0, 1, 1)₁₂ model was selected from several plausible ARIMA models. The residual mean square error of the GRNN-ARIMA model and ARIMA model were 0.4467 and 0.6521 in training part, and 0.0958 and 0.1133 in validation part, respectively. The mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of the hybrid model were also less than the ARIMA model.

Discussion and Conclusions

The gradual decline in tuberculosis report rate may be attributed to the effect of intensive measures on tuberculosis. The striking seasonal variation may have resulted from several factors. We suppose that a delay in the surveillance system may also have contributed to the variation. According to the fitting and prediction accuracy, the hybrid model outperforms the traditional ARIMA model, which may facilitate the allocation of health resources in China.     

Modeling to Predict Cases of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome in Chile

Background

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a life threatening disease transmitted by the rodent Oligoryzomys longicaudatus in Chile. Hantavirus outbreaks are typically small and geographically confined. Several studies have estimated risk based on spatial and temporal distribution of cases in relation to climate and environmental variables, but few have considered climatological modeling of HPS incidence for monitoring and forecasting purposes.

Methodology

Monthly counts of confirmed HPS cases were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health for 2001–2012. There were an estimated 667 confirmed HPS cases. The data suggested a seasonal trend, which appeared to correlate with changes in climatological variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity. We considered several Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models and regression models with ARIMA errors with one or a combination of these climate variables as covariates. We adopted an information-theoretic approach to model ranking and selection. Data from 2001–2009 were used in fitting and data from January 2010 to December 2012 were used for one-step-ahead predictions.

Results

We focused on six models. In a baseline model, future HPS cases were forecasted from previous incidence; the other models included climate variables as covariates. The baseline model had a Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) of 444.98, and the top ranked model, which included precipitation, had an AICc of 437.62. Although the AICc of the top ranked model only provided a 1.65% improvement to the baseline AICc, the empirical support was 39 times stronger relative to the baseline model.

Conclusions

Instead of choosing a single model, we present a set of candidate models that can be used in modeling and forecasting confirmed HPS cases in Chile. The models can be improved by using data at the regional level and easily extended to other countries with seasonal incidence of HPS.     

Sources and Distribution of Surface Water Fecal Contamination and Prevalence of Schistosomiasis in a Brazilian Village

Background

The relationship between poor sanitation and the parasitic infection schistosomiasis is well-known, but still rarely investigated directly and quantitatively. In a Brazilian village we correlated the spatial concentration of human fecal contamination of its main river and the prevalence of schistosomiasis.

Methods

We validated three bacterial markers of contamination in this population by high throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene and qPCR of feces from local residents. The qPCR of genetic markers from the 16S rRNA gene of Bacteroides-Prevotella group, Bacteroides HF8 cluster, and Lachnospiraceae Lachno2 cluster as well as sequencing was performed on georeferenced samples of river water. Ninety-six percent of residents were examined for schistosomiasis.

Findings

Sequence of 16S rRNA DNA from stool samples validated the relative human specificity of the HF8 and Lachno 2 fecal indicators compared to animals. The concentration of fecal contamination increased markedly along the river as it passed an increasing proportion of the population on its way downstream as did the sequence reads from bacterial families associated with human feces. Lachnospiraceae provided the most robust signal of human fecal contamination. The prevalence of schistosomiasis likewise increased downstream. Using a linear regression model, a significant correlation was demonstrated between the prevalence of S. mansoni infection and local concentration of human fecal contamination based on the Lachnospiraceae Lachno2 cluster (r² 0.53) as compared to the correlation with the general fecal marker E. coli (r² 0.28).

Interpretation

Fecal contamination in rivers has a downstream cumulative effect. The transmission of schistosomiasis correlates with very local factors probably resulting from the distribution of human fecal contamination, the limited movement of snails, and the frequency of water contact near the home. In endemic regions, the combined use of human associated bacterial markers and GIS analysis can quantitatively identify areas with risk for schistosomiasis as well as assess the efficacy of sanitation and environmental interventions for prevention.     

Prevalence of Hypertension in Indian Tribes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Introduction

In India there is an increasing trend in hypertension prevalence among the general population. Studies have shown that tribal populations in India are also experiencing this burden.

Objective

The aim was to estimate the pooled prevalence of primary hypertension among adult tribal populations of India.

Methods

A systematic search was conducted in MEDLINE, IndMed, Web of Science, Google Scholar and major journals for studies published between 1981 and 2011. Two authors independently reviewed the studies, did quality assessment and extracted data in pre-coded spread-sheets. Pooled estimates of prevalence of hypertension were calculated using DerSimonian-Laird random effects model. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses and meta-regression were performed.

Results

Twenty studies or 53 subpopulations with 64 674 subjects were included in final review. The pooled estimate of hypertension prevalence was 16.1% (95% CI: 13.5, 19.2). There was significant heterogeneity among the studies (I² = 99% and Q = 4624.0, df  = 53, p<0.001). Subgroup analyses showed that year of study, acculturation status, special features, and BP measurement techniques significantly influenced prevalence, but after meta-regression analyses, ‘decade of study’ remained the only covariate that significantly and independently influenced prevalence (R² = 0.57, Q = 119.2, df  = 49, p value <0.001).

Conclusion

An increasing trend was found in the prevalence of hypertension in adult tribal populations across three decades. Although acculturation was probably the underlying agent that caused this increase, other unmeasured factors that need further research were also important. Concerned policy makers should focus on the changing health needs of tribal communities.     

A Comparative Study of the Spatial Distribution of Schistosomiasis in Mali in 1984–1989 and 2004–2006

Background

We investigated changes in the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Mali following a decade of donor-funded control and a further 12 years without control.

Methodology/Principal Findings

National pre-intervention cross-sectional schistosomiasis surveys were conducted in Mali in 1984–1989 (in communities) and again in 2004–2006 (in schools). Bayesian geostatistical models were built separately for each time period and on the datasets combined across time periods. In the former, data from one period were used to predict prevalence of schistosome infections for the other period, and in the latter, the models were used to determine whether spatial autocorrelation and covariate effects were consistent across periods. Schistosoma haematobium prevalence was 25.7% in 1984–1989 and 38.3% in 2004–2006; S. mansoni prevalence was 7.4% in 1984–1989 and 6.7% in 2004–2006 (note the models showed no significant difference in mean prevalence of either infection between time periods). Prevalence of both infections showed a focal spatial pattern and negative associations with distance from perennial waterbodies, which was consistent across time periods. Spatial models developed using 1984–1989 data were able to predict the distributions of both schistosome species in 2004–2006 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was typically >0.7) and vice versa.

Conclusions/Significance

A decade after the apparently successful conclusion of a donor-funded schistosomiasis control programme from 1982–1992, national prevalence of schistosomiasis had rebounded to pre-intervention levels. Clusters of schistosome infections occurred in generally the same areas accross time periods, although the precise locations varied. To achieve long-term control, it is essential to plan for sustainability of ongoing interventions, including stengthening endemic country health systems.     

Distribution of Schistosomiasis and Soil Transmitted Helminthiasis in Zimbabwe: Towards a National Plan of Action for Control and Elimination

Background

Schistosomiasis and STH are among the list of neglected tropical diseases considered for control by the WHO. Although both diseases are endemic in Zimbabwe, no nationwide control interventions have been implemented. For this reason in 2009 the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care included the two diseases in the 2009–2013 National Health Strategy highlighting the importance of understanding the distribution and burden of the diseases as a prerequisite for elimination interventions. It is against this background that a national survey was conducted.

Methodology

A countrywide cross-sectional survey was carried out in 280 primary schools in 68 districts between September 2010 and August 2011. Schistosoma haematobium was diagnosed using the urine filtration technique. Schistosoma mansoni and STH (hookworms, Trichuris trichiura, Ascaris lumbricoides) were diagnosed using both the Kato Katz and formol ether concentration techniques.

Main findings

Schistosomiasis was more prevalent country-wide (22.7%) than STH (5.5%). The prevalence of S. haematobium was 18.0% while that of S. mansoni was 7.2%. Hookworms were the most common STH with a prevalence of 3.2% followed by A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura with prevalence of 2.5% and 0.1%, respectively. The prevalence of heavy infection intensity as defined by WHO for any schistosome species was 5.8% (range 0%–18.3% in districts). Only light to moderate infection intensities were observed for STH species. The distribution of schistosomiasis and STH varied significantly between provinces, districts and schools (p<0.001). Overall, the prevalence of co-infection with schistosomiasis and STH was 1.5%. The actual co-endemicity of schistosomiasis and STH was observed in 43 (63.2%) of the 68 districts screened.

Conclusion and recommendations

This study provided comprehensive baseline data on the distribution of schistosomiasis and STH that formed the basis for initiating a national control and elimination programme for these two neglected tropical diseases in Zimbabwe.     

Intrapulmonary Vascular Dilatation Evaluated by 99mTc-MAA Scintigraphy and Its Association with Portal Hypertension in Schistosomiasis

Background

Portal hypertension is responsible for various complications in patients with schistosomiasis, among them intrapulmonary vascular dilations (IPVD). In cirrhotic patients the presence of IPVD is a sign of poor prognosis, but in patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis (HSS) there are no studies assessing the significance of this change. The aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of IPVD through ^99mTc-MAA scintigraphy in patients with HSS and its relationship with clinical, laboratory, endoscopic and ultrasound parameters.

Methods

Cross-sectional study evaluating 51 patients with HSS. Patients were diagnosed with IPVD when the brain uptake of ^99mTc-MAA was higher than 6%. Subsequently, they were divided according to presence (G1) or absence (G2) of IPVD and variables were compared between groups.

Results

Overall, 51 patients with mean age of 56±12 years were assessed. IPVD was observed in 31 patients (60%). There was no statistically significant differences between groups when clinical, laboratory and endoscopic parameters were compared. Regarding ultrasound parameters, the splenic vein diameter was smaller in G1 (0.9±0.3 cm) compared to G2 (1.2±0.4 cm), p = 0.029.

Conclusion

In patients with HSS, the occurrence of IPVD by ^99mTc-MAA scintigraphy was high and was associated with lower splenic vein diameter, which can be a mechanism of vascular protection against portal hypertension. However, more studies are needed to determine the clinical significance of the early diagnosis and natural evolution of IPVD in this population.     

Elimination of Schistosomiasis Transmission in Zanzibar: Baseline Findings before the Onset of a Randomized Intervention Trial

Background

Gaining and sustaining control of schistosomiasis and, whenever feasible, achieving local elimination are the year 2020 targets set by the World Health Organization. In Zanzibar, various institutions and stakeholders have joined forces to eliminate urogenital schistosomiasis within 5 years. We report baseline findings before the onset of a randomized intervention trial designed to assess the differential impact of community-based praziquantel administration, snail control, and behavior change interventions.

Methodology

In early 2012, a baseline parasitological survey was conducted in ∼20,000 people from 90 communities in Unguja and Pemba. Risk factors for schistosomiasis were assessed by administering a questionnaire to adults. In selected communities, local knowledge about schistosomiasis transmission and prevention was determined in focus group discussions and in-depths interviews. Intermediate host snails were collected and examined for shedding of cercariae.

Principal Findings

The baseline Schistosoma haematobium prevalence in school children and adults was 4.3% (range: 0–19.7%) and 2.7% (range: 0–26.5%) in Unguja, and 8.9% (range: 0–31.8%) and 5.5% (range: 0–23.4%) in Pemba, respectively. Heavy infections were detected in 15.1% and 35.6% of the positive school children in Unguja and Pemba, respectively. Males were at higher risk than females (odds ratio (OR): 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–2.03). Decreasing adult age (OR: 1.04; CI: 1.02–1.06), being born in Pemba (OR: 1.48; CI: 1.02–2.13) or Tanzania (OR: 2.36; CI: 1.16–4.78), and use of freshwater (OR: 2.15; CI: 1.53–3.03) showed higher odds of infection. Community knowledge about schistosomiasis was low. Only few infected Bulinus snails were found.

Conclusions/Significance

The relatively low S. haematobium prevalence in Zanzibar is a promising starting point for elimination. However, there is a need to improve community knowledge about disease transmission and prevention. Control measures tailored to the local context, placing particular attention to hot-spot areas, high-risk groups, and individuals, will be necessary if elimination is to be achieved.     

S. haematobium as a Common Cause of Genital Morbidity in Girls: A Cross-sectional Study of Children in South Africa

Background

Schistosoma (S.) haematobium infection is a common cause of genital morbidity in adult women. Ova in the genital mucosal lining may cause lesions, bleeding, pain, discharge, and the damaged surfaces may pose a risk for HIV. In a heterogeneous schistosomiasis endemic area in South Africa, we sought to investigate if young girls had genital symptoms and if this was associated with urinary S. haematobium.

Methodology

In a cross-sectional study of 18 randomly chosen primary schools, we included 1057 schoolgirls between the age of 10 and 12 years. We interviewed assenting girls, whose parents had consented to their participation and examined three urines from each of them for schistosome ova.

Principal findings

One third of the girls reported to have a history of genital symptoms. Prior schistosomal infection was reported by 22% (226/1020), this was associated with current genital symptoms (p<0.001). In regression analysis the genital symptoms were significantly associated both with urinary schistosomiasis (p<0.001) and water contact (p<0.001).

Conclusions

Even before sexually active age, a relatively large proportion of the participating girls had similar genital symptoms to those reported for adult genital schistosomiasis previously. Anti-schistosomal treatment should be considered at a young age in order to prevent chronic genital damage and secondary infections such as HIV, sexually transmitted diseases and other super-infections.     

Reduction of Urogenital Schistosomiasis with an Integrated Control Project in Sudan

Purpose

Schistosomiasis remains a major public health concern in Sudan, particularly Schistosoma haematobium infection. This study presents the disease-reduction outcomes of an integrated control program for schistosomiasis in Al Jabalain locality of White Nile State, Sudan from 2009 through 2011.

Methods

The total population of the project sites was 482,902, and the major target group for intervention among them was 78,615 primary school students. For the cross-sectional study of the prevalence, urine and stool specimens were examined using the urine sedimentation method and the Kato cellophane thick smear method, respectively. To assess the impacts of health education for students and a drinking water supply facility at Al Hidaib village, questionnaire survey was done.

Results

The overall prevalence for S. haematobium and S. mansoni at baseline was 28.5% and 0.4%, respectively. At follow-up survey after 6–9 months post-treatment, the prevalence of S. haematobium infection was reduced to 13.5% (95% CI = 0.331–0.462). A higher reduction in prevalence was observed among girls, those with moderately infected status (around 20%), and residents in rural areas, than among boys, those with high prevalence (>40%), and residents in urban areas. After health education, increased awareness about schistosomiasis was checked by questionnaire survey. Also, a drinking water facility was constructed at Al Hidaib village, where infection rate was reduced more compared to that in a neighboring village within the same unit. However, we found no significant change in the prevalence of S. mansoni infection between baseline and follow-up survey (95% CI = 0.933–6.891).

Conclusions

At the end of the project, the prevalence of S. haematobium infection was reduced by more than 50% in comparison with the baseline rate. Approximately 200,000 subjects had received either praziquantel therapy, health education, or supply of clean water. To consolidate the achievements of this project, the integrated intervention should be adapted continuously.     

Generalized Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models for Count Data with Application to Malaria Time Series with Low Case Numbers

Introduction

With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions’ impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during “consolidation” and “pre-elimination” phases.

Methods

Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years.

Results

The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series.

Conclusions

G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low.     

Prevalence of Cataract Surgery and Visual Outcomes in Indian Immigrants in Singapore: The Singapore Indian Eye Study

Objective

To determine the prevalence of cataract surgery and factors associated with post-surgical visual outcomes in migrant Indians living in Singapore.

Research Design and Methods

We conducted a population-based study in 3,400 Indian immigrants residing in Singapore−the Singapore Indian Eye Study (SINDI). All participants underwent comprehensive medical eye examination and a standardized interview. Post-operative visual impairment (VI) was defined as best-corrected or presenting visual acuity (BCVA or PVA) of 20/60 or worse.

Results

The age- and gender-standardized prevalence of cataract surgery was 9.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.9%, 10.7%) in Singapore resident Indians. Post-operative VI defined by BCVA occurred in 10.9% eyes (87/795). The main causes of post-operative VI were diabetic retinopathy (20.7%), posterior capsular opacification (18.4%), and age-related macular degeneration (12.6%). Undercorrected refractive error doubled the prevalence of post-operative VI when PVA was used.

Conclusions

The rate of cataract surgery is about 10% in Indian residents in Singapore. Socioeconomic variables and migration had no significant impact on the prevalence of cataract surgery. Diabetic retinopathy was a major cause of post-operative VI in migrant Indians living in Singapore. Uncorrected postoperative refractive error remains an efficient way to improve vision.     

Zinc Deficiency Is Common in Several Psychiatric Disorders

Background

Mounting evidence suggests a link between low zinc levels and depression. There is, however, little knowledge about zinc levels in older persons with other psychiatric diagnoses. Therefore, we explore the zinc status of elderly patients suffering from a wide range of psychiatric disorders.

Methods

Clinical data and blood samples for zinc analyzes were collected from 100 psychogeriatric patients over 64 of age. Psychiatric and cognitive symptoms were assessed using the Montgomery and Aasberg Depression Rating Scale, the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia, the Mini-Mental State Examination, the Clockdrawing Test, clinical interviews and a review of medical records. In addition, a diagnostic interview was conducted using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview instrument. The prevalence of zinc deficiency in patients with depression was compared with the prevalence in patients without depression, and the prevalence in a control group of 882 older persons sampled from a population study.

Results

There was a significant difference in zinc deficiency prevalence between the control group (14.4%) and the patient group (41.0%) (χ² = 44.81, df = 1, p<0.001). In a logistic model with relevant predictors, zinc deficiency was positively associated with gender and with serum albumin level. The prevalence of zinc deficiency in the patient group was significantly higher in patients without depression (i.e. with other diagnoses) than in patients with depression as a main diagnosis or comorbid depression (χ² = 4.36, df = 1, p = 0.037).

Conclusions

Zinc deficiency is quite common among psychogeriatric patients and appears to be even more prominent in patients suffering from other psychiatric disorders than depression.

Limitations

This study does not provide a clear answer as to whether the observed differences represent a causal relationship between zinc deficiency and psychiatric symptoms. The blood sample collection time points varied in both the control group and the patient group. No data regarding zinc supplementation were collected.     

Spatio-Temporal Trends and Risk Factors for Shigella from 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province,People's Republic of China

Objective

This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal trends of Shigella incidence rates in Jiangsu Province, People''s Republic of China. It also intended to explore complex risk modes facilitating Shigella transmission.

Methods

County-level incidence rates were obtained for analysis using geographic information system (GIS) tools. Trend surface and incidence maps were established to describe geographic distributions. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and autocorrelation analysis were used for detecting clusters. Based on the number of monthly Shigella cases, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model successfully established a time series model. A spatial correlation analysis and a case-control study were conducted to identify risk factors contributing to Shigella transmissions.

Results

The far southwestern and northwestern areas of Jiangsu were the most infected. A cluster was detected in southwestern Jiangsu (LLR = 11674.74, P<0.001). The time series model was established as ARIMA (1, 12, 0), which predicted well for cases from August to December, 2011. Highways and water sources potentially caused spatial variation in Shigella development in Jiangsu. The case-control study confirmed not washing hands before dinner (OR = 3.64) and not having access to a safe water source (OR = 2.04) as the main causes of Shigella in Jiangsu Province.

Conclusion

Improvement of sanitation and hygiene should be strengthened in economically developed counties, while access to a safe water supply in impoverished areas should be increased at the same time.     

Integrated Rapid Mapping of Neglected Tropical Diseases in Three States of South Sudan: Survey Findings and Treatment Needs

Background

Integrated rapid mapping to target interventions for schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) and lymphatic filariasis (LF) is ongoing in South Sudan. From May to September 2010, three states – Unity, Eastern Equatoria and Central Equatoria – were surveyed with the aim of identifying which administrative areas are eligible for mass drug administration (MDA) of preventive chemotherapy (PCT).

Methods and Principal Findings

Payams (third administrative tier) were surveyed for Schistosoma mansoni, S. haematobium and STH infections while counties (second administrative tier) were surveyed for LF. Overall, 12,742 children from 193 sites were tested for schistosome and STH infection and, at a subset of 50 sites, 3,980 adults were tested for LF. Either S. mansoni or S. haematobium or both species were endemic throughout Unity State and occurred in foci in Central and Eastern Equatoria. STH infection was endemic throughout Central Equatoria and the western counties of Eastern Equatoria, while LF was endemic over most of Central- and Eastern Equatoria, but only in selected foci in Unity. All areas identified as STH endemic were co-endemic for schistosomiasis and/or LF.

Conclusions

The distribution and prevalence of major NTDs, particularly schistosomiasis, varies considerably throughout South Sudan. Rapid mapping is therefore important in identifying (co)-endemic areas. The present survey established that across the three surveyed states between 1.2 and 1.4 million individuals are estimated to be eligible for regular MDA with PCT to treat STH and schistosomiasis, respectively, while approximately 1.3 million individuals residing in Central- and Eastern Equatoria are estimated to require MDA for LF.     

Close Correlation between Season of Birth and the Prevalence of Bronchial Asthma in a Taiwanese Population

Background

Bronchial asthma (BA), atopic dermatitis (AD), and allergic rhinitis (AR) are common allergic diseases. Environmental factors were indicated to influence the development of allergic diseases.

Objective

To evaluate the correlation between the month of birth and the prevalence of allergic diseases in Taiwan.

Methods

Data from 104,455 children were collected from the National Insurance Research Database of Taiwan. Subjects were identified by at least two service claims for ambulatory care or one claim for inpatient care. All of the enrolled patients were aged 7∼15 years in 2010. In a bio-clinical data analysis, total immunoglobulin E (IgE) and ImmunoCAP™ allergen data (CAP) from mothers and infants were collected in a medical center in Taiwan. Correlations between children''s allergic factors and the season of birth were assessed.

Results

A significant difference in the prevalence of BA according to the month of birth (Χ² = 18.2, p<0.001) was found in the Taiwanese population. The fewest schoolchildren with were born in May (7.21%), and the most were born in October (10.59%). However, no tendency for the prevalence of AD (Χ² = 4.6, P = 0.204) or AR (Χ² = 4.3 P = 0.229) was found. In addition, we found that children born in autumn (August to October) had a higher prevalence of BA compared to those born in spring (February to April) (odds ratio: 1.13; 95% confidence interval: 1.05∼1.21). In a bio-clinical data study, markers of maternal and childhood allergies including IgE and CAP were detected in a risk analysis section. Children who were born in autumn had higher levels of CAP and total IgE.

Conclusions

The findings of this study showed that the month of birth was closely correlated with the prevalence of BA and higher levels of CAP and IgE.     

Bayesian Risk Mapping and Model-Based Estimation of Schistosoma haematobium–Schistosoma mansoni Co-distribution in C?te d′Ivoire

Background

Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni are blood flukes that cause urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively. In Côte d′Ivoire, both species are endemic and control efforts are being scaled up. Accurate knowledge of the geographical distribution, including delineation of high-risk areas, is a central feature for spatial targeting of interventions. Thus far, model-based predictive risk mapping of schistosomiasis has relied on historical data of separate parasite species.

Methodology

We analyzed data pertaining to Schistosoma infection among school-aged children obtained from a national, cross-sectional survey conducted between November 2011 and February 2012. More than 5,000 children in 92 schools across Côte d′Ivoire participated. Bayesian geostatistical multinomial models were developed to assess infection risk, including S. haematobium–S. mansoni co-infection. The predicted risk of schistosomiasis was utilized to estimate the number of children that need preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel according to World Health Organization guidelines.

Principal Findings

We estimated that 8.9% of school-aged children in Côte d′Ivoire are affected by schistosomiasis; 5.3% with S. haematobium and 3.8% with S. mansoni. Approximately 2 million annualized praziquantel treatments would be required for preventive chemotherapy at health districts level. The distinct spatial patterns of S. haematobium and S. mansoni imply that co-infection is of little importance across the country.

Conclusions/Significance

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis risk among school-aged children in Côte d′Ivoire and a strong empirical basis for a rational targeting of control interventions.     

Left Ventricular Hypertrophy and Insulin Resistance in Adults from an Urban Community in the Gambia: Cross-Sectional Study

Objective

To determine the association between left ventricular hypertrophy and insulin resistance in Gambians.

Design

Cross-sectional study.

Setting

Outpatient clinics of Royal Victoria Teaching Hospital and Medical Research Council Laboratories in Banjul.

Participants

Three hundred and sixteen consecutive patients were enrolled from outpatient clinics. The data of 275 participants (89 males) were included in the analysis with a mean (± standard deviation) age of 53.7 (±11.9) years.

Interventions

A questionnaire was filled and anthropometric measurements were taken. 2-D guided M-mode echocardiography, standard 12-1ead electrocardiogram, fasting insulin and the oral glucose tolerance test were performed.

Main Outcome Measures

The Penn formula was used to determine the left ventricular mass index, 125 g/m² in males and 110 g/m² in females as the cut-off for left ventricular hypertrophy. Using the fasting insulin and fasting glucose levels, the insulin resistance was estimated by the homeostatic model assessment formula. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the association between left ventricular hypertrophy and insulin resistance.

Results

The mean Penn left ventricular mass index was 119.5 (±54.3) and the prevalence of Penn left ventricular mass index left ventricular hypertrophy was 41%. The mean fasting glucose was 5.6 (±2.5) mmol/l, fasting insulin was 6.39 (±5.49) μU/ml and insulin resistance was 1.58 (±1.45). There was no association between Penn left ventricular mass index left ventricular hypertrophy and log of insulin resistance in univariate (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.80 – 1.19, p = 0.819) and multivariate logistic regression (OR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.76–1.15, p = 0.516) analysis.

Conclusion

No association was found in this study between left ventricular hypertrophy and insulin resistance in Gambians and this does not support the suggestion that insulin is an independent determinant of left ventricular hypertrophy in hypertensives.