Quantitative Models of the Dose-Response and Time Course of Inhalational Anthrax in Humans

Anthrax poses a community health risk due to accidental or intentional aerosol release. Reliable quantitative dose-response analyses are required to estimate the magnitude and timeline of potential consequences and the effect of public health intervention strategies under specific scenarios. Analyses of available data from exposures and infections of humans and non-human primates are often contradictory. We review existing quantitative inhalational anthrax dose-response models in light of criteria we propose for a model to be useful and defensible. To satisfy these criteria, we extend an existing mechanistic competing-risks model to create a novel Exposure–Infection–Symptomatic illness–Death (EISD) model and use experimental non-human primate data and human epidemiological data to optimize parameter values. The best fit to these data leads to estimates of a dose leading to infection in 50% of susceptible humans (ID₅₀) of 11,000 spores (95% confidence interval 7,200–17,000), ID₁₀ of 1,700 (1,100–2,600), and ID₁ of 160 (100–250). These estimates suggest that use of a threshold to human infection of 600 spores (as suggested in the literature) underestimates the infectivity of low doses, while an existing estimate of a 1% infection rate for a single spore overestimates low dose infectivity. We estimate the median time from exposure to onset of symptoms (incubation period) among untreated cases to be 9.9 days (7.7–13.1) for exposure to ID₅₀, 11.8 days (9.5–15.0) for ID₁₀, and 12.1 days (9.9–15.3) for ID₁. Our model is the first to provide incubation period estimates that are independently consistent with data from the largest known human outbreak. This model refines previous estimates of the distribution of early onset cases after a release and provides support for the recommended 60-day course of prophylactic antibiotic treatment for individuals exposed to low doses.     

Univariate Dose-Response Models in Case-Control Studies

For modelling dose-response relationships in case-control studies the multiplicative logistic regression model, assuming the relative risk to be an exponential function of the dose, is widely known. If the relative risk is assumed to be a linear function of the dose, several authors (see e.g. BERRY (1980)) have proposed an additive (linear) model. This model has a better fit with the data if such a linear relation holds. Confidence limits for the relative risk derived from the information matrix, however, appear to be rather inaccurate. Therefore, use of the ‘standard’ logistic model in two different ways was studied: extension with a quadratic term or a logarithmic transformation of the dose. By applying the methods both to an empirical data set and in a simulation experiment, it is shown that appropriate transformation (often logarithmic) of the dosage and then applying the ‘standard’ logistic model is an useful approach if a linear dose-response relationship holds.     

Resistance and Susceptibility of Plants to Fungal Pathogens

Plants are under continuous threat of infection by pathogens endowed with diverse strategies to colonize their host. Comprehensive biochemical and genetic approaches are now starting to reveal the complex signaling pathways that mediate plant disease resistance. Initiation of defense signaling often involves specific recognition of invading pathogens by the products of specialized host resistance (R) genes. Potential resistance signaling components have been identified by mutational analyses to be required for specific resistance in the model Arabidopsis and some crop species. Strikingly, many of the components share similarity to that of innate immune systems in animals. Evidence is also accumulating that plant pathogens have a number of ways to evade host defenses during the early stages of infection, similar to animal pathogens. These strategies are becoming much better understood in a number of plant–pathogen interactions. In this review, we focus on the current knowledge of host factors that control plant resistance and susceptibility to fungal pathogens. The knowledge accumulated in these studies will serve a fundamental basis for combating diseases in strategic molecular agriculture.     

Temperature Alters Host Genotype-Specific Susceptibility to Chytrid Infection

The cost of parasitism often depends on environmental conditions and host identity. Therefore, variation in the biotic and abiotic environment can have repercussions on both, species-level host-parasite interaction patterns but also on host genotype-specific susceptibility to disease. We exposed seven genetically different but concurrent strains of the diatom Asterionella formosa to one genotype of its naturally co-occurring chytrid parasite Zygorhizidium planktonicum across five environmentally relevant temperatures. We found that the thermal tolerance range of the tested parasite genotype was narrower than that of its host, providing the host with a “cold” and “hot” thermal refuge of very low or no infection. Susceptibility to disease was host genotype-specific and varied with temperature level so that no genotype was most or least resistant across all temperatures. This suggests a role of thermal variation in the maintenance of diversity in disease related traits in this phytoplankton host. The duration and intensity of chytrid parasite pressure on host populations is likely to be affected by the projected changes in temperature patterns due to climate warming both through altering temperature dependent disease susceptibility of the host and, potentially, through en- or disabling thermal host refugia. This, in turn may affect the selective strength of the parasite on the genetic architecture of the host population.     

A Comparison of Models to Infer the Distribution of Fitness Effects of New Mutations

Knowing the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of new mutations is important for several topics in evolutionary genetics. Existing computational methods with which to infer the DFE based on DNA polymorphism data have frequently assumed that the DFE can be approximated by a unimodal distribution, such as a lognormal or a gamma distribution. However, if the true DFE departs substantially from the assumed distribution (e.g., if the DFE is multimodal), this could lead to misleading inferences about its properties. We conducted simulations to test the performance of parametric and nonparametric discretized distribution models to infer the properties of the DFE for cases in which the true DFE is unimodal, bimodal, or multimodal. We found that lognormal and gamma distribution models can perform poorly in recovering the properties of the distribution if the true DFE is bimodal or multimodal, whereas discretized distribution models perform better. If there is a sufficient amount of data, the discretized models can detect a multimodal DFE and can accurately infer the mean effect and the average fixation probability of a new deleterious mutation. We fitted several models for the DFE of amino acid-changing mutations using whole-genome polymorphism data from Drosophila melanogaster and the house mouse subspecies Mus musculus castaneus. A lognormal DFE best explains the data for D. melanogaster, whereas we find evidence for a bimodal DFE in M. m. castaneus.     

Host Genetic Factors Affect Susceptibility to Norovirus Infections in Burkina Faso

Norovirus (NoV) constitutes the second most common viral pathogen causing pediatric diarrhea after rotavirus. In Africa, diarrhea is a major health problem in children, and yet few studies have been performed regarding NoV. The association of histo-blood group antigens (HBGA) and susceptibility to NoV infection is well established in Caucasian populations with non-secretors being resistant to many common NoV strains. No study regarding HBGA and NoV susceptibility has yet been performed in Africa. We collected 309 stool and 208 saliva samples from diarrheal children in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; May 2009 to March 2010. NoV was detected using real-time PCR, and genotyped by sequencing. Saliva samples were ABO, Lewis and secretor phenotyped using in house ELISA assays. NoV was detected in 12% (n = 37) of the samples. The genotype diversity was unusually large; overall the 37 positive samples belonged to 14 genotypes. Only children <2 years of age were NoV positive and the GII.4 NoVs were more frequent in the late dry season (Jan-May). NoV infections were observed less in children with the secretor-negative phenotype or blood group A (OR 0.18; p = 0.012 and OR 0.31; p = 0.054; respectively), with two non-secretors infected with genotypes GII.7 and GII.4 respectively. Lewis-negative (Le^a−b−) children, representing 32% of the study population, were susceptible to GII, but were not infected with any NoV GI. GII.4 strains preferentially infected children with blood group B whereas secretor-positive children with blood group O were infected with the largest variety of genotypes. This is the first study identifying host genetic factors associated with susceptibility to NoV in an African population, and suggests that while the non-secretor phenotype provides protection; the Lewis b antigen is not necessary for GII infection.     

多种病原物混合侵染的昆虫流行病模型

两种或两种以上的病原物同时侵染昆虫寄主时,病原物之间的相互作用表现为偏利、偏害、中性及竞争等类型,寄生群体的病症可呈多种形式．根据单种病菌的重叠侵染原理,建立了多种病原物混合侵染时以温度、病原接种量、虫龄及湿度为因子的昆虫流行病模型．由模型可计算寄生群体中不同病原物的致病比率,及寄主群体的总发病率,给出了模型的参数求解算法,以及病原物相互作用类型的判定准则．这类模型可用于多种病原物混合侵染的昆虫流行病预测,也可作为多种病原物混合施用防治害虫的最优化模型．     

宿主基因多态性与结核病易感性的相关研究新进展

结核病的高发已经给全球人类带来巨大的困扰。对结核病的预防和治疗越来越成为医疗工作者关注的问题,其中不同人群对结核杆菌的易感性引起了众多学者的关注。宿主基因的多态性可能影响宿主对结核杆菌的识别、吞噬及杀伤,进而影响结核病感染的发生和发展。认为此为结核病与宿主之间存在的重要内在联系。     

Gene-environment Interaction Models to Unmask Susceptibility Mechanisms in Parkinson's Disease

Lipoxygenase (LOX) activity has been implicated in neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer''s disease, but its effects in Parkinson''s disease (PD) pathogenesis are less understood. Gene-environment interaction models have utility in unmasking the impact of specific cellular pathways in toxicity that may not be observed using a solely genetic or toxicant disease model alone. To evaluate if distinct LOX isozymes selectively contribute to PD-related neurodegeneration, transgenic (i.e. 5-LOX and 12/15-LOX deficient) mice can be challenged with a toxin that mimics cell injury and death in the disorder. Here we describe the use of a neurotoxin, 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP), which produces a nigrostriatal lesion to elucidate the distinct contributions of LOX isozymes to neurodegeneration related to PD. The use of MPTP in mouse, and nonhuman primate, is well-established to recapitulate the nigrostriatal damage in PD. The extent of MPTP-induced lesioning is measured by HPLC analysis of dopamine and its metabolites and semi-quantitative Western blot analysis of striatum for tyrosine hydroxylase (TH), the rate-limiting enzyme for the synthesis of dopamine. To assess inflammatory markers, which may demonstrate LOX isozyme-selective sensitivity, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and Iba-1 immunohistochemistry are performed on brain sections containing substantia nigra, and GFAP Western blot analysis is performed on striatal homogenates. This experimental approach can provide novel insights into gene-environment interactions underlying nigrostriatal degeneration and PD.     

The Role of Host Vigour in the Susceptibility of Pines to Fomes annosus

The resistance of suppressed pines to F. annosus and in particularthe role of such trees as infection foci in disease-free standsis a matter of potential significance for the spread of thepathogen. Mycelial inoculations showed that, in contrast todominant trees, the roots of very heavily suppressed trees possessno active resistance to the spread of the pathogen. However,at this extreme stage of suppression root-surface-fungi canalso invade the roots and to a considerable extent replace thepathogen. Spore inoculations of small root wounds gave similarresults except that the rate of infection was very much slower. Mycelial inoculations with F. annosus, Leptographium lundbergii,Peniophora gigantea, and Trichoderma viride were carried outin the trunks of pines suffering from different degrees of suppression.The fungi differed in their adaptation to the host, L. lundbergiibeing the most specialized to the biological, chemical, andphysical characteristics of pine wood and T. viride the least.This adaptation was shown to be inversely related to the competitivesaprophytic ability of each fungus, including the ability toproduce and tolerate antibiotics.     

Parasitism of Cotesia spp. Enhances Susceptibility of Plutella xylostella to Other Pathogens

Two endoparasitoids, Cotesia plutellae and C. glomerata, parasitize the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, and induce significant host immunosuppression. This study analyzed the susceptibility changes of the parasitized P. xylostella against other pathogens using an entomopathogenic bacterium, Xenorhabdus nematophila (Xn), and a viral pathogen, Autographa californica nucleopolyhedrosis virus (AcNPV). The P. xylostella parasitized by either C. plutellae or C. glomerata exhibited higher susceptibilities to both microbial pathogens than the nonpara-sitized. To determine the parasitism factors inducing the enhanced susceptibility, three polydnaviral genes so far successfully cloned were selected from C. plutellae bracovirus (CpBV). CpBV-lectin and CpBV15 α/β were inserted into AcNPV under a CpBV promote and analyzed in their pathogenicities against P. xylostella larvae. Two AcNPVs recombined with CpBV15α/β were more potent than the control AcNPV recombined with an enhanced green fluorescent protein gene or the AcNPV recombined with CpBV-lectin. These results suggest that the wasp parasitization enhances other pathogen susceptibilities by inducing host immunosuppression, in which the symbiotic polydnavirus can play significant role in the enhanced susceptibility.     

Host resistance to mucosal gram-negative infection. Susceptibility of lipopolysaccharide nonresponder mice

The effect of Lps on the resistance of mice to gram-negative infection was compared in two genetically different backgrounds; C3H and C57BL. To mimic the natural sequence of pathogenetic events, infection was induced via a mucosal surface (intravesically), with Escherichia coli which remained at the mucosal site and Salmonella typhimurium which invaded to e.g., livers and spleens. Susceptibility was assessed as the bacterial persistence in kidneys, bladders, livers, and spleens at various times after infection. The initial clearance of both bacterial species from the mucosal site was significantly impaired in Lpsd mice both in the C3H and C57BL backgrounds. In the C57BL mice, additional unknown determinants conferred increased resistance to mucosal infection compared to the C3H mouse. For S. typhimurium, these resistance factors and alleles at the Lps locus dominated over Ity as determinants of resistance to mucosal infection. The Itys genotype conferred a significant increase in the susceptibility only to systemic infection, especially in the Lpsd, Itys mice. These results demonstrate an important difference between the genetic determinants of host resistance at mucosal and systemic sites, and emphasize the role of LPS induced host defense mechanisms for bacterial clearance from mucosal surfaces.