Competition – Supporting or preventing an increased use of bioenergy?

The intensified use of biomass as an energy source is an often-repeated goal of the German and European climate protection policy. Therefore, framework conditions have been created in recent years, which allow for a wider use of biomass within the energy system especially for a provision of electricity and fuels. Due to this policy, Germany, for example, has emerged as the leading producer of biogas from energy crops and fatty methyl ester (FAME) in Europe. However, due to the high energy price level, the use of biomass for heating purposes and as a renewable raw material have increased at the same time. To supply the obviously increased demand for biomass or biobased energy carriers cost efficiently, nationwide and to some extend even global markets are under development at present. As the demand for biomass is expected to continue to increase strongly, it is feared that an increasing competition with the use for food and fodder as well as a raw material might occur in the years to come. Against this background we have analyzed the competitions that can be expected, and the influence that they may have on the further expansion of the use of biomass for energy production. Experiences from Germany are provided exemplarily. Based on this, it is concluded that measures need to be taken to support an efficient and sustainable use of bioenergy in the future.     

The antigenic evolution of influenza: drift or thrift?

It is commonly assumed that antibody responses against the influenza virus are polarized in the following manner: strong antibody responses are directed at highly variable antigenic epitopes, which consequently undergo ‘antigenic drift’, while weak antibody responses develop against conserved epitopes. As the highly variable epitopes are in a constant state of flux, current antibody-based vaccine strategies are focused on the conserved epitopes in the expectation that they will provide some level of clinical protection after appropriate boosting. Here, we use a theoretical model to suggest the existence of epitopes of low variability, which elicit a high degree of both clinical and transmission-blocking immunity. We show that several epidemiological features of influenza and its serological and molecular profiles are consistent with this model of ‘antigenic thrift’, and that identifying the protective epitopes of low variability predicted by this model could offer a more viable alternative to regularly update the influenza vaccine than exploiting responses to weakly immunogenic conserved regions.     

Prophylaxis and treatment of bacterial infections: do we need new strategies?

Bacterial infections in patients with hematologic malignancies still represent a severe and life-treating problem. Several observational studies during the last decade have revealed that neutropenic patients with fever are a heterogeneous population with various differences regarding response to initial therapy, development of serious complications and mortality. The role of neutropenia as main risk factor for infections in hematologic patients and the definition of different level of risk related to neutrophils count and duration of neutropenia have been extensively studied and different categories of patients based on the risk of infection, mostly the condition of neutropenia, have been clearly defined. The strategies on antimicrobial therapy and supportive care in hematologic patients need to be continuously assessed, in fact new conditions favouring the occurrence of infectious complications in patients with hematologic malignancies have progressively emerged. The use of oral prophylactic antibiotics in neutropenic cancer patients is still a matter of debate. Before 2005, several trials showed how the prevention of infection can be extremely important in this setting of patients but none was conclusive. In 2005 two meta-analysis and two large randomized clinical trials gave new evidence that antibacterial prophylaxis can reduce in neutropenic patients several important outcomes including mortality. The use of the empiric antibacterial therapy represents the cornerstone of the antimicrobial strategies in the febrile neutropenic patients leading, over the span of 20 years, to a dramatic decrease of deaths: Actually beta-lactam monotherapy is commonly used for the empiric treatment of febrile neutropenia. Recently, large randomized clinical trials and meta-analysis showed that the addition of an aminoglycoside and/or a glycopeptides results in a more favourable outcome only in selected severe infections. The use of antibiotics should be prudent and safe also in neutropenic hematologic patients to prevent emergence of microbial resistance, to save costs, to reduce toxicity. For this reasons, according to the evidence, antibacterial prophylaxis should be restricted to high risk hematologic patients and empiric parenteral antibiotic monotherapy should be recommended in case of febrile neutropenia limiting the use of amynoglicosides and glycopeptides. In the next future, a major effort should be made to state in hematologic patients new risk factors which could more accurately define subgroups for targeted anti-infective strategies.     

Fast and fuel efficient? Optimal use of wind by flying albatrosses

The influence of wind patterns on behaviour and effort of free-ranging male wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) was studied with miniaturized external heart-rate recorders in conjunction with satellite transmitters and activity recorders. Heart rate was used as an instantaneous index of energy expenditure. When cruising with favourable tail or side winds, wandering albatrosses can achieve high flight speeds while expending little more energy than birds resting on land. In contrast, heart rate increases concomitantly with increasing head winds, and flight speeds decrease. Our results show that effort is greatest when albatrosses take off from or land on the water. On a larger scale, we show that in order for birds to have the highest probability of experiencing favourable winds, wandering albatrosses use predictable weather systems to engage in a stereotypical flight pattern of large looping tracks. When heading north, albatrosses fly in anticlockwise loops, and to the south, movements are in a clockwise direction. Thus, the capacity to integrate instantaneous eco-physiological measures with records of large-scale flight and wind patterns allows us to understand better the complex interplay between the evolution of morphological, physiological and behavioural adaptations of albatrosses in the windiest place on earth.     

The use of a rare codon specifically during development?

A range of circumstantial evidence suggests that in Streptomyces spp., genes required for vegetative growth do not contain the leucine codon TTA. Instead, the codon seems to be confined to a few genes necessary during differentiation, when the colonies begin to produce aerial hyphae and antibiotics. Thus, mutations in bldA, the structural gene for tRNATTALeu, do not retard vegetative growth, but they prevent normal aerial mycelium and antibiotic production. Most of the known TTA-containing genes specify regulatory or resistance proteins associated with antibiotic-production clusters. Possibly the ability to translate the UUA codons in mRNA from such genes is confined to late stages of colony development. Factors that might have contributed to the evolution of this unusual situation are discussed.     

Is There an Optimal Level of Open-Endedness in Prebiotic Evolution?

In this paper we explore the question of whether there is an optimal set up for a putative prebiotic system leading to open-ended evolution (OEE) of the events unfolding within this system. We do so by proposing two key innovations. First, we introduce a new index that measures OEE as a function of the likelihood of events unfolding within a universe given its initial conditions. Next, we apply this index to a variant of the graded autocatalysis replication domain (GARD) model, Segre et al. (P Natl Acad Sci USA 97(8):4112-4117, 2000; Markovitch and Lancet Artif Life 18(3), 2012), and use it to study - under a unified and concise prebiotic evolutionary framework - both a variety of initial conditions of the universe and the OEE of species that evolve from them.     

How large an area of sea do Helgoland seabirds use for foraging during the breeding season?

Conclusions Of the species examined, only the guillemot remained within the study area, while other species ranged much further from the colony to forage. The number of guillemots present at sea was 2943±222 birds as calculated by Ordinary Kriging method (van der Meer & Leopold, in prep.). This corresponds to the number expected from the size of the colony and the attendance patterns of the birds (2889: Grunsky, 1992). Based on (1) metabolism of adults, (2) cost of egg production, (3) amount of food delivered to chicks, and (4) population parameters according to Grunsky (1992), we calculated the total energy consumption during the breeding season (cf. Cairns et al., 1992). The length of the breeding season was taken from 1st April (10 days before the first egg) to 16th June (mean day of leaving). In total, the guillemots used 1015 million kJ of energy to complete the 1991 breeding season. The diet (Grunsky, 1992) consisted, for 68.6%, of sandeel (7.8 kJ/g wet mass) and for 31.4%, of clupeoids (10.8 kJ/g), so in total 81 tonnes of sandeel and 37 tonnes of clupeoids were needed to support the colony of guillemots.     

Age as a determinant for dissemination of seasonal and pandemic influenza: an open cohort study of influenza outbreaks in Östergötland County, Sweden

An understanding of the occurrence and comparative timing of influenza infections in different age groups is important for developing community response and disease control measures. This study uses data from a Scandinavian county (population 427.000) to investigate whether age was a determinant for being diagnosed with influenza 2005-2010 and to examine if age was associated with case timing during outbreaks. Aggregated demographic data were collected from Statistics Sweden, while influenza case data were collected from a county-wide electronic health record system. A logistic regression analysis was used to explore whether case risk was associated with age and outbreak. An analysis of variance was used to explore whether day for diagnosis was also associated to age and outbreak. The clinical case data were validated against case data from microbiological laboratories during one control year. The proportion of cases from the age groups 10-19 (p<0.001) and 20-29 years old (p<0.01) were found to be larger during the A pH1N1 outbreak in 2009 than during the seasonal outbreaks. An interaction between age and outbreak was observed (p<0.001) indicating a difference in age effects between circulating virus types; this interaction persisted for seasonal outbreaks only (p<0.001). The outbreaks also differed regarding when the age groups received their diagnosis (p<0.001). A post-hoc analysis showed a tendency for the young age groups, in particular the group 10-19 year olds, led outbreaks with influenza type A H1 circulating, while A H3N2 outbreaks displayed little variations in timing. The validation analysis showed a strong correlation (r = 0.625;p<0.001) between the recorded numbers of clinically and microbiologically defined influenza cases. Our findings demonstrate the complexity of age effects underlying the emergence of local influenza outbreaks. Disentangling these effects on the causal pathways will require an integrated information infrastructure for data collection and repeated studies of well-defined communities.     

Characterization of H9 subtype influenza viruses from the ducks of southern China: a candidate for the next influenza pandemic in humans?

A current view of the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses envisages a gene flow from the aquatic avian reservoir to humans via reassortment in pigs, the hypothetical \"mixing vessel.\" Understanding arising from recent H5N1 influenza outbreaks in Hong Kong since 1997 and the isolation of avian H9N2 virus from humans raises alternative options for the emergence of a new pandemic virus. Here we report that H9N2 influenza viruses established in terrestrial poultry in southern China are transmitted back to domestic ducks, in which the viruses generate multiple reassortants. These novel H9N2 viruses are double or even triple reassortants that have amino acid signatures in their hemagglutinin, indicating their potential to directly infect humans. Some of them contain gene segments that are closely related to those of A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1/97, H5N1) or A/Quail/Hong Kong/G1/97 (G1-like, H9N2). More importantly, some of their internal genes are closely related to those of novel H5N1 viruses isolated during the outbreak in Hong Kong in 2001. This study reveals a two-way transmission of influenza virus between terrestrial and aquatic birds that facilitates the generation of novel reassortant H9N2 influenza viruses. Such reassortants may directly or indirectly play a role in the emergence of the next pandemic virus.     

Is social distancing a boon or bane for persons who stutter during COVID-19 pandemic?

The Covid-19 pandemic is an ongoing crisis and is colloquially known as the corona virus pandemic. As no specific treatment protocol are available for this viral infection, social distancing is considered as one of the remedies to prevent the infection. This study aimed to investigate the anxiety issues in persons who stutter (PWS). A total of 110 (55 PWS and 55 Neuro-typical Adults) were enrolled for the study. A questionnaire comprising of two parts on social anxiety and consequences of social distancing was administered on the participants. The results showed that PWS felt more socially anxious. PWS opined that they were comfortable during the corona virus lockdown period, as the situation demanded them to speak minimally to strangers. Neuro-typical adults, on the other hand, reported that they did not observe any change with respect to the social communication skills during lockdown.     

What explains cross-city variation in mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic? Evidence from 438 U.S. cities

Disparities in cross-city pandemic severity during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic remain poorly understood. This paper uses newly assembled historical data on annual mortality across 438 U.S. cities to explore the determinants of pandemic mortality. We assess the role of three broad factors: i) pre-pandemic population health and poverty, ii) air pollution, and iii) the timing of onset and proximity to military bases. Using regression analysis, we find that cities in the top tercile of the distribution of pre-pandemic infant mortality had 21 excess deaths per 10,000 residents in 1918 relative to cities in the bottom tercile. Similarly, cities in the top tercile of the distribution of proportion of illiterate residents had 21.3 excess deaths per 10,000 residents during the pandemic relative to cities in the bottom tercile. Cities in the top tercile of the distribution of coal-fired electricity generating capacity, an important source of urban air pollution, had 9.1 excess deaths per 10,000 residents in 1918 relative to cities in the bottom tercile. There was no statistically significant relationship between excess mortality and city proximity to World War I bases or the timing of onset. In a counterfactual analysis, the three statistically significant factors accounted for 50 percent of cross-city variation in excess mortality in 1918.     

Can photoperiod predict mortality in the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic?

Amplitude of the seasonal change in day length increases with distance from the equator, and changes in day length markedly alter immune function in diverse nonhuman animal models of infection. Historical records of mortality data, ambient temperature, population density, geography, and economic indicators from 42 countries during 1918-1920 were analyzed to determine relative contributions toward human mortality during the "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918-1920. The data identify a strong negative relation between distance from the equator and mortality during the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic, which, in a multiple regression model, manifested independent of major economic, demographic, and temperature variables. Enhanced survival was evident in populations that experienced a winter nadir day length ≤10 h light/day, relative to those that experienced lower amplitude changes in photoperiod. Numerous reports indicate that exposure to short day lengths, typical of those occurring outside the tropics during winter, yields robust and enduring reductions in the magnitude of cytokine, febrile, and behavioral responses to infection. The present results are preliminary but prompt the conjecture that, if similar mechanisms are operant in humans, then they would be predicted to mitigate symptoms of infection in proportion to an individual's distance from the equator. Although limitations and uncertainties accompany regression-based analyses of historical epidemiological data, latitude, per se, may be an underrecognized factor in mortality during the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic. The author proposes that some proportion of the global variance in morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases may be explained by effects of day length on the innate immune response to infection.     

Flight by night or day? Optimal daily timing of bird migration

Many migratory bird species fly mainly during the night (nocturnal migrants), others during daytime (diurnal migrants) and still others during both night and day. Need to forage during the day, atmospheric structure, predator avoidance and orientation conditions have been proposed as explanations for the widespread occurrence of nocturnal migration. However, the general principles that determine the basic nocturnal-diurnal variation in flight habits are poorly known. In the present study optimal timing of migratory flights, giving the minimum total duration of the migratory journey, is evaluated in a schematic way in relation to ecological conditions for energy gain in foraging and for energy costs in flight. There exists a strong and fundamental advantage of flying by night because foraging time is maximized and energy deposition can take place on days immediately after and prior to the nocturnal flights. The increase in migration speed by nocturnal compared with diurnal migration will be largest for birds with low flight costs and high energy deposition rates. Diurnal migration will be optimal if it is associated with efficient energy gain immediately after a migratory flight because suitable stopover/foraging places have been located during the flight or if energy losses during flight are substantially reduced by thermal soaring and/or by fly-and-forage migration. A strategy of combined diurnal and nocturnal migration may be optimal when birds migrate across regions with relatively poor conditions for energy deposition (not only severe but also soft barriers). Predictions about variable timing of migratory flights depending on changing foraging and environmental conditions along the migration route may be tested for individual birds by analysing satellite tracking results with respect to daily travel routines in different regions. Documenting and understanding the adaptive variability in daily travel schedules among migrating animals constitute a fascinating challenge for future research.