Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has significant potential in aiding population management to prevent local (and global) extinction events.     

Effects of founding genetic variation on adaptation to a novel resource

Population genetic theory predicts that adaptation in novel environments is enhanced by genetic variation for fitness. However, theory also predicts that under strong selection, demographic stochasticity can drive populations to extinction before they can adapt. We exposed wheat-adapted populations of the flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum) to a novel suboptimal corn resource, to test the effects of founding genetic variation on population decline and subsequent extinction or adaptation. As previously reported, genetically diverse populations were less likely to go extinct. Here, we show that among surviving populations, genetically diverse groups recovered faster after the initial population decline. Within two years, surviving populations significantly increased their fitness on corn via increased fecundity, increased egg survival, faster larval development, and higher rate of egg cannibalism. However, founding genetic variation only enhanced the increase in fecundity, despite existing genetic variation-and apparent lack of trade-offs-for egg survival and larval development time. Thus, during adaptation to novel habitats the positive impact of genetic variation may be restricted to only a few traits, although change in many life-history traits may be necessary to avoid extinction. Despite severe initial maladaptation and low population size, genetic diversity can thus overcome the predicted high extinction risk in new habitats.     

From nature to the laboratory: the impact of founder effects on adaptation

Most founding events entail a reduction in population size, which in turn leads to genetic drift effects that can deplete alleles. Besides reducing neutral genetic variability, founder effects can in principle shift additive genetic variance for phenotypes that underlie fitness. This could then lead to different rates of adaptation among populations that have undergone a population size bottleneck as well as an environmental change, even when these populations have a common evolutionary history. Thus, theory suggests that there should be an association between observable genetic variability for both neutral markers and phenotypes related to fitness. Here, we test this scenario by monitoring the early evolutionary dynamics of six laboratory foundations derived from founders taken from the same source natural population of Drosophila subobscura. Each foundation was in turn three‐fold replicated. During their first few generations, these six foundations showed an abrupt increase in their genetic differentiation, within and between foundations. The eighteen populations that were monitored also differed in their patterns of phenotypic adaptation according to their immediately ancestral founding sample. Differences in early genetic variability and in effective population size were found to predict differences in the rate of adaptation during the first 21 generations of laboratory evolution. We show that evolution in a novel environment is strongly contingent not only on the initial composition of a newly founded population but also on the stochastic changes that occur during the first generations of colonization. Such effects make laboratory populations poor guides to the evolutionary genetic properties of their ancestral wild populations.     

Nonconsensus West Nile virus genomes arising during mosquito infection suppress pathogenesis and modulate virus fitness in vivo

West Nile virus (WNV) is similar to other RNA viruses in that it forms genetically complex populations within hosts. The virus is maintained in nature in mosquitoes and birds, with each host type exerting distinct influences on virus populations. We previously observed that prolonged replication in mosquitoes led to increases in WNV genetic diversity and diminished pathogenesis in mice without remarkable changes to the consensus genome sequence. We therefore sought to evaluate the relationships between individual and group phenotypes in WNV and to discover novel viral determinants of pathogenesis in mice and fitness in mosquitoes and birds. Individual plaque size variants were isolated from a genetically complex population, and mutations conferring a small-plaque and mouse-attenuated phenotype were localized to the RNA helicase domain of the NS3 protein by reverse genetics. The mutation, an Asp deletion, did not alter type I interferon production in the host but rendered mutant viruses more susceptible to interferon compared to wild type (WT) WNV. Finally, we used an in vivo fitness assay in Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes and chickens to determine whether the mutation in NS3 influenced fitness. The fitness of the NS3 mutant was dramatically lower in chickens and moderately lower in mosquitoes, indicating that RNA helicase is a major fitness determinant of WNV and that the effect on fitness is host specific. Overall, this work highlights the complex relationships that exist between individual and group phenotypes in RNA viruses and identifies RNA helicase as an attenuation and fitness determinant in WNV.     

Mutation induced extinction in finite populations: lethal mutagenesis and lethal isolation

Reproduction is inherently risky, in part because genomic replication can introduce new mutations that are usually deleterious toward fitness. This risk is especially severe for organisms whose genomes replicate "semi-conservatively," e.g. viruses and bacteria, where no master copy of the genome is preserved. Lethal mutagenesis refers to extinction of populations due to an unbearably high mutation rate (U), and is important both theoretically and clinically, where drugs can extinguish pathogens by increasing their mutation rate. Previous theoretical models of lethal mutagenesis assume infinite population size (N). However, in addition to high U, small N can accelerate extinction by strengthening genetic drift and relaxing selection. Here, we examine how the time until extinction depends jointly on N and U. We first analytically compute the mean time until extinction (τ) in a simplistic model where all mutations are either lethal or neutral. The solution motivates the definition of two distinct regimes: a survival phase and an extinction phase, which differ dramatically in both how τ scales with N and in the coefficient of variation in time until extinction. Next, we perform stochastic population-genetics simulations on a realistic fitness landscape that both (i) features an epistatic distribution of fitness effects that agrees with experimental data on viruses and (ii) is based on the biophysics of protein folding. More specifically, we assume that mutations inflict fitness penalties proportional to the extent that they unfold proteins. We find that decreasing N can cause phase transition-like behavior from survival to extinction, which motivates the concept of "lethal isolation." Furthermore, we find that lethal mutagenesis and lethal isolation interact synergistically, which may have clinical implications for treating infections. Broadly, we conclude that stably folded proteins are only possible in ecological settings that support sufficiently large populations.     

Vector-Borne Transmission Imposes a Severe Bottleneck on an RNA Virus Population

RNA viruses typically occur in genetically diverse populations due to their error-prone genome replication. Genetic diversity is thought to be important in allowing RNA viruses to explore sequence space, facilitating adaptation to changing environments and hosts. Some arboviruses that infect both a mosquito vector and a mammalian host are known to experience population bottlenecks in their vectors, which may constrain their genetic diversity and could potentially lead to extinction events via Muller''s ratchet. To examine this potential challenge of bottlenecks for arbovirus perpetuation, we studied Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) enzootic subtype IE and its natural vector Culex (Melanoconion) taeniopus, as an example of a virus-vector interaction with a long evolutionary history. Using a mixture of marked VEEV clones to infect C. taeniopus and real-time RT-PCR to track these clones during mosquito infection and dissemination, we observed severe bottleneck events that resulted in a significant drop in the number of clones present. At higher initial doses, the midgut was readily infected and there was a severe bottleneck at the midgut escape. Following a lower initial dose, the major bottleneck occurred at initial midgut infection. A second, less severe bottleneck was identified at the salivary gland infection stage following intrathoracic inoculation. Our results suggest that VEEV consistently encounters bottlenecks during infection, dissemination and transmission by its natural enzootic vector. The potential impacts of these bottlenecks on viral fitness and transmission, and the viral mechanisms that prevent genetic drift leading to extinction, deserve further study.     

West Nile virus genetic diversity is maintained during transmission by Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus mosquitoes

Due to error-prone replication, RNA viruses exist within hosts as a heterogeneous population of non-identical, but related viral variants. These populations may undergo bottlenecks during transmission that stochastically reduce variability leading to fitness declines. Such bottlenecks have been documented for several single-host RNA viruses, but their role in the population biology of obligate two-host viruses such as arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) in vivo is unclear, but of central importance in understanding arbovirus persistence and emergence. Therefore, we tracked the composition of West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) populations during infection of the vector mosquito, Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus to determine whether WNV populations undergo bottlenecks during transmission by this host. Quantitative, qualitative and phylogenetic analyses of WNV sequences in mosquito midguts, hemolymph and saliva failed to document reductions in genetic diversity during mosquito infection. Further, migration analysis of individual viral variants revealed that while there was some evidence of compartmentalization, anatomical barriers do not impose genetic bottlenecks on WNV populations. Together, these data suggest that the complexity of WNV populations are not significantly diminished during the extrinsic incubation period of mosquitoes.     

Sex and the evolution of intrahost competition in RNA virus phi6.

Sex allows beneficial mutations that occur in separate lineages to be fixed in the same genome. For this reason, the Fisher-Muller model predicts that adaptation to the environment is more rapid in a large sexual population than in an equally large asexual population. Sexual reproduction occurs in populations of the RNA virus phi6 when multiple bacteriophages coinfect the same host cell. Here, we tested the model''s predictions by determining whether sex favors more rapid adaptation of phi6 to a bacterial host, Pseudomonas phaseolicola. Replicate populations of phi6 were allowed to evolve in either the presence or absence of sex for 250 generations. All experimental populations showed a significant increase in fitness relative to the ancestor, but sex did not increase the rate of adaptation. Rather, we found that the sexual and asexual treatments also differ because intense intrahost competition between viruses occurs during coinfection. Results showed that the derived sexual viruses were selectively favored only when coinfection is common, indicating that within-host competition detracts from the ability of viruses to exploit the host. Thus, sex was not advantageous because the cost created by intrahost competition was too strong. Our findings indicate that high levels of coinfection exceed an optimum where sex may be beneficial to populations of phi6, and suggest that genetic conflicts can evolve in RNA viruses.     

Population extinction and the genetics of adaptation

Theories of adaptation typically ignore the effect of environmental change on population size. But some environmental challenges--challenges to which populations must adapt--may depress absolute fitness below 1, causing populations to decline. Under this scenario, adaptation is a race; beneficial alleles that adapt a population to the new environment must sweep to high frequency before the population becomes extinct. We derive simple, though approximate, solutions to the probability of successful adaptation (population survival) when adaptation involves new mutations, the standing genetic variation, or a mixture of the two. Our results show that adaptation to such environmental challenges can be difficult when relying on new mutations at one or a few loci, and populations will often decline to extinction.     

The molecular population genetics of the Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) genome

RNA viruses are characterized by high genetic variability resulting in rapid adaptation to new or resistant hosts. Research for plant RNA virus genetic structure and its variability has been relatively scarce compared to abundant research done for human and animal RNA viruses. Here, we utilized a molecular population genetic framework to characterize the evolution of a highly pathogenic plant RNA virus [Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV), Tospovirus, Bunyaviridae]. Data from genes encoding five viral proteins were used for phylogenetic analysis, and for estimation of population parameters, subpopulation differentiation, recombination, divergence between Tospovirus species, and selective constraints on the TSWV genome. Our analysis has defined the geographical structure of TSWV, attributed possibly to founder effects. Also, we identify positive selection favouring divergence between Tospovirus species. At the species level, purifying selection has acted to preserve protein function, although certain amino acids appear to be under positive selection. This analysis provides demonstration of population structuring and species-wide population expansions in a multisegmented plant RNA virus, using sequence-based molecular population genetic analyses. It also identifies specific amino acid sites subject to selection within Bunyaviridae and estimates the level of genetic heterogeneity of a highly pathogenic plant RNA virus. The study of the variability of TSWV populations lays the foundation in the development of strategies for the control of other viral diseases in floral crops.     

Many-trillionfold amplification of single RNA virus particles fails to overcome the Muller's ratchet effect.

We showed earlier that transfers of large populations of RNA viruses lead to fitness gains and that repeated genetic bottleneck transfers result in fitness losses due to Muller's ratchet. In the present study, we examined the effects of genetic bottleneck passages intervening between population passages, a process akin to some natural viral transmissions, using vesicular stomatitis virus as a model. Our findings show that the pronounced fitness increases that occur during two successive population passages cannot overcome the fitness decreases caused by a single intervening genetic bottleneck passage. The implications for natural transmissions of RNA viruses are discussed.     

Subclonal components of consensus fitness in an RNA virus clone.

Most RNA virus populations exhibit extremely high mutation frequencies which generate complex, genetically heterogeneous populations referred to as quasi-species. Previous work has shown that when a large spectrum of the quasi-species is transferred, natural selection operates, leading to elimination of noncompetitive (inferior) genomes and rapid gains in fitness. However, whenever the population is repeatedly reduced to a single virion, variable declines in fitness occur as predicted by the Muller's ratchet hypothesis. Here, we quantitated the fitness of 98 subclones isolated from an RNA virus clonal population. We found a normal distribution around a lower fitness, with the average subclone being less fit than the parental clonal population. This finding demonstrates the phenotypic diversity in RNA virus populations and shows that, as expected, a large fraction of mutations generated during virus replication is deleterious. This clarifies the operation of Muller's ratchet and illustrates why a large number of virions must be transferred for rapid fitness gains to occur. We also found that repeated genetic bottleneck passages can cause irregular stochastic declines in fitness, emphasizing again the phenotypic heterogeneity present in RNA virus populations. Finally, we found that following only 60 h of selection (15 passages in which virus yields were harvested after 4 h), RNA virus populations can undergo a 250% average increase in fitness, even on a host cell type to which they were already well adapted. This is a remarkable ability; in population biology, even a much lower fitness gain (e.g., 1 to 2%) can represent a highly significant reproductive advantage. We discuss the biological implications of these findings for the natural transmission and pathogenesis of RNA viruses.     

Distribution of Fitness in Populations of Dengue Viruses

Genetically diverse RNA viruses like dengue viruses (DENVs) segregate into multiple, genetically distinct, lineages that temporally arise and disappear on a regular basis. Lineage turnover may occur through multiple processes such as, stochastic or due to variations in fitness. To determine the variation of fitness, we measured the distribution of fitness within DENV populations and correlated it with lineage extinction and replacement. The fitness of most members within a population proved lower than the aggregate fitness of populations from which they were drawn, but lineage replacement events were not associated with changes in the distribution of fitness. These data provide insights into variations in fitness of DENV populations, extending our understanding of the complexity between members of individual populations.     

Evolutionary rescue and the limits of adaptation

Populations subject to severe stress may be rescued by natural selection, but its operation is restricted by ecological and genetic constraints. The cost of natural selection expresses the limited capacity of a population to sustain the load of mortality or sterility required for effective selection. Genostasis expresses the lack of variation that prevents many populations from adapting to stress. While the role of relative fitness in adaptation is well understood, evolutionary rescue emphasizes the need to recognize explicitly the importance of absolute fitness. Permanent adaptation requires a range of genetic variation in absolute fitness that is broad enough to provide a few extreme types capable of sustained growth under a stress that would cause extinction if they were not present. This principle implies that population size is an important determinant of rescue. The overall number of individuals exposed to selection will be greater when the population declines gradually under a constant stress, or is progressively challenged by gradually increasing stress. In gradually deteriorating environments, survival at lethal stress may be procured by prior adaptation to sublethal stress through genetic correlation. Neither the standing genetic variation of small populations nor the mutation supply of large populations, however, may be sufficient to provide evolutionary rescue for most populations.     

Diminishing returns of population size in the rate of RNA virus adaptation

Whenever an asexual viral population evolves by adapting to new environmental conditions, beneficial mutations, the ultimate cause of adaptation, are randomly produced and then fixed in the population. The larger the population size and the higher the mutation rate, the more beneficial mutations can be produced per unit time. With the usually high mutation rate of RNA viruses and in a large enough population, several beneficial mutations could arise at the same time but in different genetic backgrounds, and if the virus is asexual, they will never be brought together through recombination. Thus, the best of these genotypes must outcompete each other on their way to fixation. This competition among beneficial mutations has the effect of slowing the overall rate of adaptation. This phenomenon is known as clonal interference. Clonal interference predicts a speed limit for adaptation as the population size increases. In the present report, by varying the size of evolving vesicular stomatitis virus populations, we found evidence clearly demonstrating this speed limit and thus indicating that clonal interference might be an important factor modulating the rate of adaptation to an in vitro cell system. Several evolutionary and epidemiological implications of the clonal interference model applied to RNA viruses are discussed.     

Evolutionary genomics of host-use in bifurcating demes of RNA virus phi-6

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Viruses are exceedingly diverse in their evolved strategies to manipulate hosts for viral replication. However, despite these differences, most virus populations will occasionally experience two commonly-encountered challenges: growth in variable host environments, and growth under fluctuating population sizes. We used the segmented RNA bacteriophage [GREEK PHI SYMBOL]6 as a model for studying the evolutionary genomics of virus adaptation in the face of host switches and parametrically varying population sizes. To do so, we created a bifurcating deme structure that reflected lineage splitting in natural populations, allowing us to test whether phylogenetic algorithms could accurately resolve this 'known phylogeny'. The resulting tree yielded 32 clones at the tips and internal nodes; these strains were fully sequenced and measured for phenotypic changes in selected traits (fitness on original and novel hosts). RESULTS: We observed that RNA segment size was negatively correlated with the extent of molecular change in the imposed treatments; molecular substitutions tended to cluster on the Small and Medium RNA chromosomes of the virus, and not on the Large segment. Our study yielded a very large molecular and phenotypic dataset, fostering possible inferences on genotype-phenotype associations. Using further experimental evolution, we confirmed an inference on the unanticipated role of an allelic switch in a viral assembly protein, which governed viral performance across host environments. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that varying complexities can be simultaneously incorporated into experimental evolution, to examine the combined effects of population size, and adaptation in novel environments. The imposed bifurcating structure revealed that some methods for phylogenetic reconstruction failed to resolve the true phylogeny, owing to a paucity of molecular substitutions separating the RNA viruses that evolved in our study.     

Evidence of opposing fitness effects of parental heterozygosity and relatedness in a critically endangered marine turtle?

How individual genetic variability relates to fitness is important in understanding evolution and the processes affecting populations of conservation concern. Heterozygosity–fitness correlations (HFCs) have been widely used to study this link in wild populations, where key parameters that affect both variability and fitness, such as inbreeding, can be difficult to measure. We used estimates of parental heterozygosity and genetic similarity (‘relatedness’) derived from 32 microsatellite markers to explore the relationship between genetic variability and fitness in a population of the critically endangered hawksbill turtle, Eretmochelys imbricata. We found no effect of maternal MLH (multilocus heterozygosity) on clutch size or egg success rate, and no single‐locus effects. However, we found effects of paternal MLH and parental relatedness on egg success rate that interacted in a way that may result in both positive and negative effects of genetic variability. Multicollinearity in these tests was within safe limits, and null simulations suggested that the effect was not an artefact of using paternal genotypes reconstructed from large samples of offspring. Our results could imply a tension between inbreeding and outbreeding depression in this system, which is biologically feasible in turtles: female‐biased natal philopatry may elevate inbreeding risk and local adaptation, and both processes may be disrupted by male‐biased dispersal. Although this conclusion should be treated with caution due to a lack of significant identity disequilibrium, our study shows the importance of considering both positive and negative effects when assessing how variation in genetic variability affects fitness in wild systems.