Initial population trends from a 5-year butterfly monitoring scheme

The Irish Butterfly Monitoring Scheme started in 2007. The main objective of this study was to examine initial population trends from data gathered over 5 years (2008–2012) by approximately 150 volunteers across the Republic of Ireland. Nine of the 15 species analysed showed changes in population over the 5-year period; three species showed steep or moderate increases while six species showed moderate or steep declines in population. Some of these population changes are due to the highly variable weather conditions over the five years of monitoring, particularly the unusually cool, wet summer of 2012. However, factors affecting butterfly population trends are many and varied, so longer-term data are required to assess trends more reliably. A further six species had indeterminate trends over the 5-year period however, as the scheme develops, longer-term trends will have greater statistical reliability and give a clearer insight into Irish butterfly populations. The Irish Butterfly Monitoring Scheme is important in the national context, as there is little other countrywide systematic monitoring of insect populations. Furthermore, with a growing number of such standardised monitoring schemes internationally and development of bioindicators, it is now possible to monitor and track butterfly populations at larger spatial scales. We recommend that the Irish Butterfly Monitoring Scheme is continued over the long term and expanded to ensure that more Irish butterfly species are sufficiently monitored. However, in addition to monitoring population trends, basic research is still needed into the ecology and population dynamics of common butterfly species.     

Flexibility in the timing of post‐breeding moult in passerines in the UK

Higher temperatures resulting from climate change have led to predictions that the duration of the breeding season of many temperate bird species may be changing. However, the extent to which breeding seasons can be altered will also depend on the degree of flexibility in processes occurring at other points in the annual cycle. In particular, plasticity in the timing of post‐breeding moult (PBM) could facilitate changes in the timing of key events throughout the annual cycle, but little is known about the level of within‐ and between‐species plasticity in PBM. As part of the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) Ringing Scheme, many ringers routinely record moult scores of flight feathers, and these can be used to provide information on the annual progression of PBM for a range of species. Here we use ringing data to investigate patterns of PBM in 15 passerines, as well as data from the BTO Nest Record Scheme to relate these differences to the timing of breeding of these species across the UK. We find considerable variation in both the mean start (19 May–29 July) and duration (66–111 days) of PBM between species, but find no evidence that species starting PBM later in the season complete it any faster. However, there is considerable within‐species variation in PBM, particularly for multi‐brooded species; PBM starts later and is completed in less time when the duration of the breeding season (difference between first and last nests) is longer. This implies that a later end to breeding can be compensated for by faster PBM, and that advances in breeding could lead to earlier and slower PBM. Our findings suggest that adaptation of PBM in response to climate‐mediated changes in the timing and duration of the breeding season is possible. However, the requirement to complete PBM prior to migration or the onset of winter might constrain the extent to which breeding seasons can lengthen, especially for later nesting species.     

欧洲蝴蝶监测的历史、现状与我国的发展对策

蝴蝶是进行生物多样性监测、评估及生态环境影响评价的重要指示生物.欧洲对蝴蝶的种类组成、种群动态与分布的长期监测已有数十年的历史,先后实施了许多具有国际性影响的长期监测计划.这些计划的目标是评估区域及国家范围的蝴蝶物种丰富度的变化趋势,分析其与栖境和气候变化等环境因素的相关性,为研究、保护和利用蝴蝶资源及预测环境变化提供基础数据,并在蝴蝶受威胁等级的划分、保护措施的制定、生态环境保护与管理等方面发挥了重要作用.本文在总结欧洲蝴蝶监测历史及现状的基础上,着重介绍英国蝴蝶监测计划(The UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, UKBMS)、德国及欧盟等重要的蝴蝶监测计划,同时提出了开展我国蝴蝶监测工作的具体建议.     

Temporal variation in the annual survival rates of six granivorous birds with contrasting population trends

To identify the environmental changes responsible for the declines in abundance shown by many granivorous bird species, the demographic mechanism through which the changes have acted must be determined. Ring-recovery data were used to estimate the annual survival rates (since 1962) of six seed-eating bird species with contrasting population trends to identify whether variations in survival could have been the mechanism behind population change. The survival rates of Bullfinch Pyrrhula pyrrhula , Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs , Goldfinch Carduelis carduelis , Greenfinch C. choris , Linnet C. cannabina and House Sparrow Passer domesticus were estimated using models allowing age- and time-specificity in survival (reporting rates could be assumed to be constant). Three tests of the importance of variations in survival in determining population trend were conducted: (1) simple population models with constant productivity showed whether temporal changes in survival were sufficient alone to explain observed trends in abundance, (2) survival models incorporating changes in abundance as a covariate identified whether annual survival rates were associated with population changes, and (3) mean survival rates found in objectively identified periods of increase, decline and stability in each species' population trend were compared. These analyses suggested that environmental change has led to the observed population trends for Goldfinch and House Sparrow largely through effects on survival. Weaker relationships between variations in survival and population trend were found for Bullfinch, Chaffinch and Linnet, but other factors such as breeding success are likely to have been at least as important for these species, and also for Greenfinch. Checking analyses incorporating density-dependence did not alter these conclusions.     

Demography of greater prairie-chickens: Regional variation in vital rates,sensitivity values,and population dynamics

Intensification of rangeland management has coincided with population declines among obligate grassland species in the largest remaining tallgrass prairie in North America, although causes of declines remain unknown. We modeled population dynamics and conducted sensitivity analyses from demographic data collected for an obligate grassland bird that is an indicator species for tallgrass prairie, the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), during a 4-year study in east-central Kansas, USA. We examined components of reproductive effort and success, juvenile survival, and annual adult female survival for 3 populations of prairie-chickens across an ecological gradient of human landscape alteration and land use. We observed regional differences in reproductive performance, survivorship, and population dynamics. All 3 populations of prairie-chickens were projected to decline steeply given observed vital rates, but rates of decline differed across a gradient of landscape alteration, with the greatest declines in fragmented landscapes. Elasticity values, variance-scaled sensitivities, and contribution values from a random-effects life-table response experiment all showed that the finite rate of population change was more sensitive to changes in adult survival than other demographic parameters in our declining populations. The rate of population change was also sensitive to nest survival at the most fragmented and least intensively grazed study site; suggesting that patterns of landscape fragmentation and land use may be affecting the relative influences of underlying vital rates on rates of population growth. Our model results indicate that 1) populations of prairie-chickens in eastern Kansas are unlikely to be viable without gains from immigration, 2) rates of population decline vary among areas under different land management practices, 3) human land-use patterns may affect the relative influences of vital rates on population trajectories, and 4) anthropogenic effects on population demography may influence the regional life-history strategies of a short-lived game bird. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Contrasting Patterns of Demography and Population Viability Among Gopher Tortoise Populations in Alabama

Population viability analyses are useful tools to predict abundance and extinction risk for imperiled species. In southeastern North America, the federally threatened gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a keystone species in the diverse and imperiled longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem, and researchers have suggested that tortoise populations are declining and characterized by high extinction risk. We report results from a 30-year demographic study of gopher tortoises in southern Alabama (1991–2020), where 3 populations have been stable and 3 others have declined. To better understand the demographic vital rates associated with stable and declining tortoise populations, we used a multi-state hierarchical mark-recapture model to estimate sex- and stage-specific patterns of demographic vital rates at each population. We then built a predictive population model to project population dynamics and evaluate extinction risk in a population viability context. Population structure did not change significantly in stable populations, but juveniles became less abundant in declining populations over 30 years. Apparent survival varied by age, sex, and site; adults had higher survival than juveniles, but female survival was substantially lower in declining populations than in stable ones. Using simulations, we predicted that stable populations with high female survival would persist over the next 100 years but sites with lower female survival would decline, become male-biased, and be at high risk of extirpation. Stable populations were most sensitive to changes in apparent survival of adult females. Because local populations varied greatly in vital rates, our analysis improves upon previous demographic models for northern populations of gopher tortoises by accounting for population-level variation in demographic patterns and, counter to previous model predictions, suggests that small tortoise populations can persist when habitat is managed effectively. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Avian nest predation, competition and the decline of British Marsh Tits Parus palustris

Data from long-term schemes monitoring abundance and breeding performance were used to investigate the patterns and causes of decline of the Marsh Tit Parus palustris in Britain. Data from the British Trust for Ornithology's Common Birds Census (CBC) showed that declines have occurred to a similar extent in both woodland and farmland. Novel analyses of CBC data with respect to the corresponding data on the abundance of potential avian nest predators and competitors provided no evidence that increases in the numbers of either group have had a deleterious effect on the species. There were no significant relationships with predator numbers and all significant relationships with potential competitors were positive, suggesting common responses to environmental conditions rather than any negative effects of increases in competitor populations. Further evidence for a lack of any effect of nest predation comes from the absence of any decline in breeding success and, specifically, in nest failure rates, over time: failure rates actually fell during the period of decline. The most likely cause of the decline is the degradation of woodland habitats, and the specific ways in which this may have affected Marsh Tits (as opposed to congeneric species whose populations are healthier) are discussed.     

Using long-term ornithological studies in setting targets for conservation in Britain

Long-term studies are necessary in conservation work for two main purposes: monitoring of population parameters, and defining habitat requirements to set targets for conservation action. Apart from their intrinsic interest, birds may be of value also as a means of monitoring the wider environment. Current developments include the integration of measures of breeding performance and survival with those of population size. This will also aid early warning of changes. The range of normal variation in these measures needs assessment to identify limits beyond which action is needed. Monitoring studies need to be reported in appropriate habitat or geographical units, but cover as wide a geographical area as possible in a coordinated manner, to provide context. Long-term studies are required for defining requirements, as needs may vary with overall population size, weather conditions, and other features which differ between years. Population studies based on age-structures at a moment in time may not be a good approximation of the real performance as assessed by following age-cohorts through time. This may be especially so in rare species. For these, sample sizes also present problems in short studies. Long-term studies may be required also to identify the needs of less obvious components of populations, such as immature individuals.     

Population declines and reproductive performance of Skylarks Alauda arvensis in different regions and habitats of the United Kingdom

Declines in the number of breeding Skylarks Alauda aruensis and changes in their reproductive performance were analysed using data from two long-running surveys co-ordinated by the British Trust for Ornithology: the Common Birds Census and the Nest Record Scheme. In the UK, the number of breeding Skylarks declined by approximately 55% between 1975 and 1994. This decline was steepest in agricultural habitats and in regions associated with intensive agriculture. In contrast, Skylark reproductive performance per nest, in terms of clutch size, brood size and post-hatching survival rate of nests, showed a general improvement over time. This improvement was greatest in intensively farmed agricultural habitats. Therefore changes in reproductive performance per nesting attempt were probably not responsible for the decline in numbers. It is inferred that possible causes of the decline of the Skylark are: reductions in the number of breeding attempts per pair per season, reductions in the proportion of birds attempting to breed, and increased mortality outside the breeding season.     

An Ecological Classification of British Butterflies: Ecological Attributes and Biotope Occupancy

We classify British butterflies using 136 non-biotope associated binary state ecological attributes describing all stages of butterfly life-cycles. Using cluster analysis we identify two groups of woodland species, a group occurring in tall open grassland, another group associated with short sward herb-rich grassland, and a ruderal group. Principal Component and Factor analyses (4 factor solution) are used to identify ecological attributes that determine species groupings. No single attribute or attribute type is responsible for the groupings, which are also insensitive to hostplant type. We use presence/absence data from Butterfly Monitoring Scheme transects in southern Britain to test our classification. On the basis of adult occurrences, similarities within two of the four groups identified from PCA are greater than between groups. Exclusivity between species pairs is also more frequent between groups than within groups. Species' ranges, distributions, biotope range, dispersal ability and recent decline in abundances differ between groups identified by their factor loadings. Ruderal species have large ranges, abundances, extensive mobilities and show little recent decline. The group associated with short sward grassland have the lowest mobilities, and the smallest distributions within their geographic ranges. True woodland species have the smallest biotope range, and the species associated with open areas have the second smallest decline in their distributions. Our ecological classification identifies characteristics of species that determine their habitat requirements and could serve to predict the response of species groups to environmental change on the basis of their ecological attributes. Our method may be of use in identifying the relative importance of ecological attributes of less-well studied taxa and be applicable in less well known geographic regions.     

The decline of the Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata in the UK: an integrated population model

The Spotted Flycatcher has become a species of great conservation concern in Europe and the UK following a period of prolonged and accelerating decline. We consider a range of population models for UK census data between 1965 and 1996, along with independent survey data designed to estimate demographic parameters. Population declines are similar in the major habitats and regions of the UK, indicating that a broad-scale factor has influenced the population. Nest record data show that changes in individual nest success are not the cause of the increasing decline. This is more likely the result of a fall in the survival rates of fledged birds prior to the next breeding season; we show by comparison with the recoveries of ringed birds that the most likely cause is an increased mortality rate of birds either shortly after fledging or within the subsequent first year of life.     

Steep past and future population decline in an arctic wader: dynamics and viability of Baltic Temminck's stints Calidris temminckii

Decline of migrant wader populations worldwide implies that their demography may be affected by phenomena occurring in a large geographical scale. Knowledge about vital rates affecting population growth and viability helps in finding the processes behind the declines. We estimated the rate of population growth (λ) of a dramatically declined population of Temminck's stints Calidris temminckii using a ten year capture–recapture data. We assessed the viability of the population by projections based on λ and its variation. We also studied sensitivity of λ to changes in vital rates (breeding success, recruitment and adult survival). Both adult and juvenile survival and breeding success were lower than c. 30 years earlier. Adult survival seemed to have dropped during the study period. Population growth appeared strongly negative and viability analyses predicted an almost certain extinction within a few decades. Adult survival formed the main component of the growth rate suggesting that population crash is mainly caused by a drop in adult survival. Still, sensitivity analyses showed that a moderate rise in adult survival or any other single vital rate would not make the population viable. Most probably, survival has dropped due to factors operating along migration routes and wintering areas, at sites shared by birds from other parts of the breeding range. Therefore, the observed population crash and decline in adult survival may indicate parallel changes in poorly monitored arctic populations. Migration habits (continental wide flyways and scattered wintering areas) imply that factors responsible for the drop in survival have a wide geographical range.     

Developing and launching a wider countryside butterfly survey across the United Kingdom

Many butterfly species that were historically common throughout the UK are thought to have declined due to land use intensification, whilst others have increased regionally due to climate change. Population trends in these species are inadequately assessed by current monitoring programmes: the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS) mainly samples semi-natural habitats; coarse-scale distribution recording under-estimates declines in population abundance. We designed a scheme (the wider countryside butterfly survey—WCBS) to provide unbiased abundance trends for widespread butterfly species across the whole countryside. The WCBS has been developed over a 3 year pilot study, culminating in a UK-wide roll out in 2009. After testing a range of survey methods, the scheme involves visiting randomly selected 1-km squares at least twice during July–August and walking a linear transect route, counting the number of individual butterflies seen within 5 m. A method for volunteer recorders to collect abundance data on non-lepidopteran insects was also tested. The results of the first year of the WCBS and future plans for the scheme will be described.     

Butterfly monitoring in Europe: methods,applications and perspectives

Since the first Butterfly Monitoring Scheme in the UK started in the mid-1970s, butterfly monitoring in Europe has developed in more than ten European countries. These schemes are aimed to assess regional and national trends in butterfly abundance per species. We discuss strengths and weaknesses of methods used in these schemes and give examples of applications of the data. A new development is to establish supra-national trends per species and multispecies indicators. Such indicators enable to report against the target to halt biodiversity loss by 2010. Our preliminary European Grassland Butterfly Indicator shows a decline of 50% between 1990 and 2005. We expect to develop a Grassland Butterfly Indicator with an improved coverage across European countries. We see also good perspectives to develop a supra-national indicator for climate change as well as an indicator for woodland butterflies.     

The impact of sea‐level rise on Snowy Plovers in Florida: integrating geomorphological,habitat, and metapopulation models

Sea‐level rise (SLR) is a projected consequence of global climate change that will result in complex changes in coastal ecosystems. These changes will cause transitions among coastal habitat types, which will be compounded by human‐made barriers to the gradual inland migration of these habitat types. The effect of these changes on the future viability of coastal species will depend on the habitat requirements and population dynamics of these species. Thus, realistic assessments of the impact of SLR require linking geomorphological models with habitat and population models. In this study, we implemented a framework that allows this linkage, and demonstrated its feasibility to assess the effect of SLR on the viability of the Snowy Plover population in Florida. The results indicate that SLR will cause a decline in suitable habitat and carrying capacity for this species, and an increase in the risk of its extinction and decline. The model projected that the population size will decline faster than the area of habitat or carrying capacity, demonstrating the necessity of incorporating population dynamics in assessing the impacts of SLR on coastal species. The results were most sensitive to uncertainties in survival rate and fecundity, and suggested that future studies on this species should focus on the average and variability of these demographic rates and their dependence on population density. The effect of SLR on this species’ viability was qualitatively similar with most alternative models that used the extreme values of each uncertain parameter, indicating that the results are robust to uncertainties in the model.     

Some new approaches to conservation monitoring of British breeding birds

It is important to monitor bird populations both in their own right and as indicators of the general health of wildlife habitats. The objectives of the British Trust for Ornithology's Integrated Population Monitoring programme relate to breeding bird populations in Britain and Ireland and involve the estimation of demographic parameters as well as assessment of numbers. Current programmes for monitoring bird numbers cover the majority of British species; it would be feasible to monitor most of the rest. A new Breeding Bird Survey has been developed to provide effective coverage of all regions and all major habitats in Britain through random sampling, allowing for the marked geographical variation in volunteer observer density. The final choice of a random sample stratified by observer density (with some professional support in regions with few volunteer observers) was based on comparison with alternative stratifications, using data from a 2-year pilot study to assess the number of species adequately covered under various alternatives. A method of assessing whether or not targets are being achieved at any time has been developed: it involves looking back through the data at intervals of 1-year, 4-year, 16-year and longer spans. It will be possible to refine this by incorporating environmental and density-dependent effects into predictive models. The method is illustrated here using Common Birds Census data. We discuss associated problems of statistical inference and of taking decisions under uncertainty. The data provide evidence for large declines in some species, particularly in farmland; the value of birds as general indicators of habitat health is clear. The results of monitoring can be used to illuminate possible causes of problems and to guide both practical steps to ameliorate the problems and research aimed at better understanding the causes. Examples of such research are discussed.     

Small-scale spatial and temporal variation in the demographic processes underlying the large-scale decline of eiders in the Baltic Sea

The application of uniform conservation schemes often fails to account for small-scale spatial variation in the drivers of population decline. Demographic comparisons of imperilled populations across locations are therefore crucial for successful conservation, but progress is hampered by lack of long-term data from more than a single population. The recent large-scale decline of eider ducks (Somateria mollissima) in the Baltic Sea is ideal for determining to what extent mechanisms underlying population decline can be extrapolated over larger areas. We utilized stochastic demographic methods incorporating both environmental and sampling variation to assess small-scale spatial and temporal variation in the population dynamics of eiders at Söderskär (eastern range-margin) and Tvärminne (core breeding area), situated 130 km apart. The stochastic growth rate models accurately predicted the observed differences in the rate of decline between sites and time periods. At Söderskär, established breeder survival had by far the greatest elasticity, whereas elasticity was more evenly distributed among vital rates at Tvärminne. Although the study sites showed the single largest difference in fecundity, stochastic life table response experiment analyses revealed that reduced adult female survival at Tvärminne mainly determined the observed difference in growth rates between sites. In contrast, reduced fecundity primarily differentiated the past population increase from the present population decline at Söderskär. Our results demonstrate that different mechanisms may be associated with population decline across adjacent geographic locations, and indicate that dispersal of first-time breeders may be important for population dynamics. Safeguarding adult female survival and/or fecundity should be prioritized in management efforts.     

Survival of British Sedge Warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus in relation to west African rainfall

Fluctuations in the population levels and annual adult survival rates of British Sedge Warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus since the late 1960s are strongly correlated with indices of wet season rainfall in the west African winter quarters. Population changes are unrelated to estimates of breeding productivity in the previous year. Habitat availability in the winter quarters has probably been the main factor limiting the size of the Sedge Warbler population in Britain during the period of study.     

Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

Despite concern expressed two decades ago, there has been little recent discussion about continuing declines of migrant bird populations. Monitoring efforts have been focused almost exclusively on the breeding grounds. We describe the long-term decline of a winter-resident bird population in Guánica Commonwealth Forest, Puerto Rico, one of the last remaining tracts of high-quality tropical dry forests in the Caribbean. The winter bird community has exhibited dramatic declines, with constant-effort mist netting now capturing about one-third as many birds as it did 20 years ago. Population estimates for the three most common species have declined dramatically, even though survival rates have remained constant, and other species are now virtually absent from a site where they once were fairly common. Although explanations for these declines are speculative, particularly because they involve multiple species, we argue that the strength and duration of these declines in well-preserved dry forest within a biosphere reserve should stimulate renewed discussion of migrant population trends and comparison with other recent monitoring activities.     

Is breeding of farmland wading birds depressed by a combination of predator abundance and grazing?

Agri-environment schemes have been implemented across Europe to counter biodiversity loss in agricultural landscapes and halt the continual decline of farmland birds, including waders. Such schemes provide financial compensation for changes in agricultural practice, including livestock grazing regimes. Scheme uptake has been variable, partly because farmers believe that other factors, notably predation, are key to wader population declines. On the basis of wader breeding surveys across Shetland, UK, we show that predator density and livestock grazing, through reducing sward height, interact to influence territoriality and thereby are likely to affect wader breeding success. Our results appear to reflect views of both farmers and government agencies, which indicates that future agri-environment schemes would benefit from genuine stakeholder participation to maximize scheme uptake, implementation and beneficial effects on biodiversity. Our findings also imply that agri-environment schemes will reap the greatest benefits for waders through reducing stocking rate where avian predators are abundant.