Domestic Violence in a subtropical environment: Police calls and weather in Brisbane

Possible relationships between weather and telephone calls to police' complaining of domestic violence, were investigated for Brisbane during 1992. Having accounted for the effect of the day of the week, significant associations were observed between calls and maximum air temperature, during all seasons. Prediction equations have been established for different days of the week. At the weekly level, the temperature association was enhanced by barometric pressure, yielding a regression which explained nearly 50% of the overall variability. It is suggested that the inputs into these regressions can be adequately forecasted, and that appropriate procedures may be developed for their practical application.     

Day-to-day and seasonal fluctuations of urban mortality in Kyoto,Japan

The study and interpretation of temporal variability in mortality requires the consideration of both exogenous and endogenous influences as underlying factors. In the present paper the relative contribution of fluctuations in daily weather was investigated using the unbiased techniques of lagged cross-correlation and spectral analyses. The study focused on patterns of daily mortality in Kyoto, Japan. Studied herein were total mortality of all ages less accidental, ischemic heart (IHD), cerebrovascular (CVD), cardiovascular (IHD + CVD), cancer and among elderly (over 70 years of age) deaths. The meteorological factors were mean, maximum and minimum daily temperature, mean barometric pressure, mean relative humidity, and mean and maximum wind speed. It was found that after extreme weather conditions, such as heat waves (with mean air temperature in excess of 30°C) or the intrusion of cold waves (with mean air temperature below 0°C), mortality increased to about three times the daily average with a lag effect of usually one—three days and up to one week. Over the year, however, weather fluctuations were found to account statistically for no more than 10% of the overall annual variability in mortality. Importantly, the short-term upswings in mortality were usually accompanied by noticeable drops in the number of deaths on the subsequent days suggesting a triggering effect of external factors. The most weather-sensitive mortality group was people over 70 years of age.     

High-mortality days during the winter season: comparing meteorological conditions across 5 US cities

While the relationship between weather and human health has been studied from various perspectives, this study examines an alternative method of analysis by examining weather conditions on specific high-mortality days during the winter season. These high-mortality days, by definition, represent days with dramatic increases in mortality and the days with the highest mortality. By focusing solely on high-mortality days, this research examines the relationship between weather variables and mortality through a synoptic climatology, environment-to circulation approach. The atmospheric conditions during high-mortality days were compared to the days prior and the days not classified as high-mortality days. Similar patterns emerged across all five locations despite the spatial and temporal variability. Southern locations had a stronger relationship with temperature changes while northern locations showed a greater relationship to atmospheric pressure. Overall, all high-mortality days were associated with warmer temperatures, decreased pressure, and a greater likelihood of precipitation when compared to the previous subset of days. While the atmospheric conditions were consistent across all locations, the importance of the lag effect should not be overlooked as a contributing factor to mortality during the winter season. Through a variety of diverse, methodological approaches, future studies may build upon these results and explore in more detail the complex relationship between weather situations and the impact of short-term changes in weather and health outcomes.     

Do weather changes influence pain levels in women with fibromyalgia,and can psychosocial variables moderate these influences?

The aim of this study was to examine the association between fibromyalgia pain and weather, and to investigate whether psychosocial factors influence this relationship. Women with chronic widespread pain/fibromyalgia (N?=?50) enrolled in a larger study, were recruited from a 4-week inpatient rehabilitation program in Norway ( 2009–2010), and reported their pain and psychological factors up to three times per day (morning, afternoon, evening) for 5 weeks. These ratings were then related to the official local weather parameters. Barometric pressure recorded simultaneously impacted pain significantly while temperature, relative humidity, and solar flux did not. No psychological variables influenced the weather–pain interaction. No weather parameter predicted change in the subsequent pain measures. The magnitude of the inverse association between pain and barometric pressure was very small, and none of the psychological variables studied influenced the association between pain and barometric pressure. All in all, the evidence for a strong weather–pain association in fibromyalgia seems limited at best.     

Influence of weather on emergency transport events coded as stroke: population-based study in Japan

Studying the relation between incidence of stroke and weather is difficult because it requires large-scale community-based data collection. Despite the lack of strong evidence that weather conditions influence stroke incidence, many clinicians feel that meteorological conditions influence the onset of stroke. This study examined whether emergency events related to stroke are influenced by meteorological factors and was based on computerized records of emergency medical transport services in a Japanese city during the period January 1992–December 2003. A total of 53,585 patients transported for an event coded as stroke were analyzed in relation to meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. Poisson regression analysis was applied to clarify the influence of daily meteorological conditions on the daily incidence of emergency transport due to events coded as stroke. Ordinary least squares regression analysis was used to evaluate the influence of weather, defined as the combination of meteorological parameters, on the occurrence of emergency transport due to events coded as stroke. Daily mean ambient temperature and daily mean relative humidity showed a statistically significant negative effect on the incidence of the emergency transport events for both men and women (P<0.001). Daily mean barometric pressure was not significantly related to these events. The occurrence of a holiday was negatively related to the incidence (P<0.001). Dry weather and cool weather were likely to shift the circadian curve of the incidence upward. Thus, occurrence of emergency transport due to events coded as stroke is likely to be associated with weather conditions.     

Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994–2009

Sudden weather changes have long been thought to be associated with negative impacts on human health, but relatively few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships. We use large 6-h changes in atmospheric pressure as a proxy for sudden weather changes and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analysed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population 1.2 million) over a 16-year period (1994–2009). We found that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant rise in hospital admissions. Increased CVD morbidity was observed neither for pressure drops in summer nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal flow and rapidly moving low-pressure systems with centres over northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting western and central Europe. Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions, however, shows that the links disappear if weather changes are characterised by frontal passages. Sudden pressure drops in winter are associated also with significant excess CVD mortality. As climate models project strengthening of zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of windstorms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the twenty-first century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.     

Winter North Atlantic Oscillation, temperature and ischaemic heart disease mortality in three English counties

As cold weather is an ischaemic heart disease (IHD) risk factor, year-to-year variations of the level of IHD mortality may be partly determined by inter-annual variations in winter climate. This paper investigates whether there is any association between the level of IHD mortality for three English counties and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts a fundamental control on the nature of the winter climate over Western Europe. Correlation and regression analysis was used to explore the nature of the association between IHD mortality and a climate index (CI) that represents the interaction between the NAO and temperature across England for the winters 1974–1975 to 1989–1999. Statistically significant inverse associations between the CI and the level of IHD mortality were found. Generally, high levels of winter IHD mortality are associated with a negative CI, which represents winters with a strong negative phase of the NAO and anomalously low temperatures across England. Moreover, the nature of the CI in the early stages of winter appears to exert a fundamental control on the general level of winter IHD mortality. Because winter climate is able to explain a good proportion of the inter-annual variability of winter mortality, long-lead forecasting of winter IHD mortality appears to be a possibility. The integration of climate-based health forecasts into decision support tools for advanced general winter emergency service and capacity planning could form the basis of an effective adaptive strategy for coping with the health effects of harsh winters.     

A direct test of the effects of changing atmospheric pressure on the mating behavior of Drosophila melanogaster

Changes in weather can be catastrophic for small insects. As such, it would be highly adaptive for insects to be able to sense when a weather front is approaching and respond appropriately. While correlative and anecdotal evidence exists that flies behaviorally respond to changes in barometric pressure, which indicate variation in weather, a direct test has yet to be performed. Here, we subject multiple strains of Drosophila melanogaster to changes in barometric pressure within a hypobaric chamber and measure male courtship and female receptivity. Since this species has a long copulation duration, copulating when adverse weather is approaching could subject both males and females to potentially lethal conditions. As predicted, some flies reduced their mating activity when exposed to a change in pressure that indicated imminent adverse weather. Surprisingly, however, some flies instead increased their mating activity; the behavioral response depended upon the strain’s native population location and intra-population variation, demonstrating that there is genetic variation for the behavioral response. This indicates that flies are able to anticipate weather patterns and change their behavior depending on the barometric pressure they experience, but that the form of behavioral response varies both within and between populations.     

The association between temperature and mortality in tropical middle income Thailand from 1999 to 2008

We have investigated the association between tropical weather condition and age-sex adjusted death rates (ADR) in Thailand over a 10-year period from 1999 to 2008. Population, mortality, weather and air pollution data were obtained from four national databases. Alternating multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) regression and stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis were used to sequentially build models of the associations between temperature variable and deaths, adjusted for the effects and interactions of age, sex, weather (6 variables), and air pollution (10 variables). The associations are explored and compared among three seasons (cold, hot and wet months) and four weather zones of Thailand (the North, Northeast, Central, and South regions). We found statistically significant associations between temperature and mortality in Thailand. The maximum temperature is the most important variable in predicting mortality. Overall, the association is nonlinear U-shape and 31 °C is the minimum-mortality temperature in Thailand. The death rates increase when maximum temperature increase with the highest rates in the North and Central during hot months. The final equation used in this study allowed estimation of the impact of a 4 °C increase in temperature as projected for Thailand by 2100; this analysis revealed that the heat-related deaths will increase more than the cold-related deaths avoided in the hot and wet months, and overall the net increase in expected mortality by region ranges from 5 to 13 % unless preventive measures were adopted. Overall, these results are useful for health impact assessment for the present situation and future public health implication of global climate change for tropical Thailand.     

Under the Weather: Legionellosis and Meteorological Factors

The incidence of legionellosis, caused by the bacteria Legionella which are commonly found in the environment, has been increasing in New Jersey (NJ) over the last decade. The majority of cases are sporadic with no known source of exposure. Meteorological factors may be associated with increases in legionellosis. Time series and case-crossover study designs were used to evaluate associations of legionellosis and meteorological factors (temperature (daily minimum, maximum, and mean), precipitation, dew point, relative humidity, sea level pressure, wind speed (daily maximum and mean), gust, and visibility). Time series analyses of multi-factor models indicated increases in monthly relative humidity and precipitation were positively associated with monthly legionellosis rate, while maximum temperature and visibility were inversely associated. Case-crossover analyses of multi-factor models indicated increases in relative humidity occurring likely before incubation period was positively associated, while sea level pressure and visibility, also likely preceding incubation period, were inversely associated. It is possible that meteorological factors, such as wet, humid weather with low barometric pressure, allow proliferation of Legionella in natural environments, increasing the rate of legionellosis.     

The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.     

A search for associations between weather and the onset of human parturition

Weather data were examined for association with hospital records indicating the time at which pregnant women at term first experienced labor contractions (onsets). There is a considerable advantage, compared with mortality and morbidity, to using this response to infer weather influences. Three tests were used. First, the time series of daily onsets was analyzed to determine if characteristics known to exist in time series of weather data — variability and persistence — were evident in daily onsets. Second, the frequency distributions of nine weather variables were stratified, mostly by terciles, and onset means calculated for each of these divisions. Response means much different from average were then used to specify the nature of weather at such times. Third, the weather data were organized as weather types — pre- and post-cold frontal and general cold frontal — and onsets at these times were compared with those at non-frontal times. The time series characteristics were not found, but the other analysis revealed subsets of days on which onsets were above average, and in some cases the results were statistically significant. One such subset consists of winter days with low pressure, temperature markedly lower than the day before, and high wind speeds. On such days onsets were 34% above average. They were also above average during the 48 hours before and after cold front passage, and especially so in the 12 hours prior to the front. These findings constitute a weak, but statistically significant indication that human parturition is influenced by weather. Follow-up studies are urged.     

Patterns of activity and fatality of migratory bats at a wind energy facility in Alberta,Canada

Studying migratory behavior of bats is challenging. Thus, most information regarding their migratory behavior is anecdotal. Recently, however, fatalities of migratory bats at some wind energy facilities across North America have provided the opportunity and impetus to study bat migration at fine spatial and temporal scales. Using acoustic monitoring and carcass searches, we examined temporal and spatial variation in activity levels and fatality rates of bats at a wind energy facility in southern Alberta, Canada. Our goals were to better understand the influence of weather variables and turbine location on the activity and fatality of hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus) and silver-haired bats (Lasionycteris noctivagans), and to use that understanding to predict variation in fatality rates at wind energy facilities and recommend measures to reduce fatalities. Overall activity of migratory bats and of silver-haired bats increased in low wind speeds and warm ambient temperatures, and was reduced when the wind was from the North or Northeast, whereas hoary bat activity increased with falling barometric pressure. Fatalities of migratory bats in general increased with increased activity of migratory bats, increased moon illumination, and falling barometric pressure and were influenced by the interaction between barometric pressure change and activity. Fatalities of silver-haired bats increased with increased activity, moon illumination, and winds from the south-east. Hoary bat fatalities increased with falling barometric pressure. Our results indicate that both the activity and fatality of migratory bats are affected by weather variables, but that species differ in their responses to environmental conditions. Spatially, fatalities were not influenced by the position of turbines within a turbine row, but were influenced by the location of turbines within the facility. Our findings have implications for our understanding of bat migration and efforts to reduce fatalities at wind energy facilities. To maximize the reduction of bat fatalities, operators of wind energy facilities could incorporate migratory bats' response to environmental variables, such as barometric pressure and fraction of moon illuminated, into their existing mitigation strategies. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

The influence of meteorological and geomagnetic factors on acute myocardial infarction and brain stroke in Moscow,Russia

Evidence of the impact of air temperature and pressure on cardiovascular morbidity is still quite limited and controversial, and even less is known about the potential influence of geomagnetic activity. The objective of this study was to assess impacts of air temperature, barometric pressure and geomagnetic activity on hospitalizations with myocardial infarctions and brain strokes. We studied 2,833 myocardial infarctions and 1,096 brain strokes registered in two Moscow hospitals between 1992 and 2005. Daily event rates were linked with meteorological and geomagnetic conditions, using generalized linear model with controls for day of the week, seasonal and long-term trends. The number of myocardial infarctions decreased with temperature, displayed a U-shaped relationship with pressure and variations in pressure, and increased with geomagnetic activity. The number of strokes increased with temperature, daily temperature range and geomagnetic activity. Detrimental effects on strokes of low pressure and falling pressure were observed. Relative risks of infarctions and strokes during geomagnetic storms were 1.29 (95 % CI 1.19–1.40) and 1.25 (1.10–1.42), respectively. The number of strokes doubled during cold spells. The influence of barometric pressure on hospitalizations was relatively greater than the influence of geomagnetic activity, and the influence of temperature was greater than the influence of pressure. Brain strokes were more sensitive to inclement weather than myocardial infarctions. This paper provides quantitative estimates of the expected increases in hospital admissions on the worst days and can help to develop preventive health plans for cardiovascular diseases.     

Climate impact on suicide rates in Finland from 1971 to 2003

Seasonal patterns of death from suicide are well-documented and have been attributed to climatic factors such as solar radiation and ambient temperature. However, studies on the impact of weather and climate on suicide are not consistent, and conflicting data have been reported. In this study, we performed a correlation analysis between nationwide suicide rates and weather variables in Finland during the period 1971–2003. The weather parameters studied were global solar radiation, temperature and precipitation, and a range of time spans from 1 month to 1 year were used in order to elucidate the dose-response relationship, if any, between weather variables and suicide. Single and multiple linear regression models show weak associations using 1-month and 3-month time spans, but robust associations using a 12-month time span. Cumulative global solar radiation had the best explanatory power, while average temperature and cumulative precipitation had only a minor impact on suicide rates. Our results demonstrate that winters with low global radiation may increase the risk of suicide. The best correlation found was for the 5-month period from November to March; the inter-annual variability in the cumulative global radiation for that period explained 40 % of the variation in the male suicide rate and 14 % of the variation in the female suicide rate, both at a statistically significant level. Long-term variations in global radiation may also explain, in part, the observed increasing trend in the suicide rate until 1990 and the decreasing trend since then in Finland.     

Climatic influences on the mortality of sheep during long-distance sea transport

Research on the causes of sheep death in sea voyages from Australia to the Middle East is limited, in particular little is known about the influence of climatic factors. Mortality data from 417 shipments of sheep exported over an 11-year period (November 2004 to June 2015) were modelled retrospectively to determine associated climatic factors. The statistical analysis were performed for both the full data set with 417 voyages based on actual and estimated departure and arrival dates and a restricted data set with 71 voyages based on actual dates. The results of the full data set demonstrated a seasonal mortality pattern, with more deaths occurring on sea voyages leaving Australia in the southern hemisphere winter or spring than those departing in Australian summer or autumn. Heat stress and inadequate fat mobilisation for energy supply when sheep are inappetant on shipments may explain this seasonality. Based on these two models, the voyage and weather factors associated with sheep mortalities included departure year, autumn departure in the southern hemisphere, voyage duration, single or multiple loading port(s), weekly mean dry bulb temperature and wind speed at departure ports, and humidity at destination ports. Significant correlations were observed between weather variables at the departure ports in the Australian winter and a high sheep mortality rate during voyages. This, together with the anticipated increased heat stress risk as a result of climate change, suggests that there could be review of the trade from Australia in the southern hemisphere winter. The influence of weather at the departure ports should be considered in sheep mortality prediction models, especially Australia’s heat stress risk assessment model.     

Relationships between sudden weather changes in summer and mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986–2005

The study examines the relationship between sudden changes in weather conditions in summer, represented by (1) sudden air temperature changes, (2) sudden atmospheric pressure changes, and (3) passages of strong atmospheric fronts; and variations in daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic. The events are selected from data covering 1986–2005 and compared with the database of daily excess all-cause mortality for the whole population and persons aged 70 years and above. Relative deviations of mortality, i.e., ratios of the excess mortality to the expected number of deaths, were averaged over the selected events for days D−2 (2 days before a change) up to D+7 (7 days after), and their statistical significance was tested by means of the Monte Carlo method. We find that the periods around weather changes are associated with pronounced patterns in mortality: a significant increase in mortality is found after large temperature increases and on days of large pressure drops; a decrease in mortality (partly due to a harvesting effect) occurs after large temperature drops, pressure increases, and passages of strong cold fronts. The relationship to variations in excess mortality is better expressed for sudden air temperature/pressure changes than for passages of atmospheric fronts. The mortality effects are usually more pronounced in the age group 70 years and above. The impacts associated with large negative changes of pressure are statistically independent of the effects of temperature; the corresponding dummy variable is found to be a significant predictor in the ARIMA model for relative deviations of mortality. This suggests that sudden weather changes should be tested also in time series models for predicting excess mortality as they may enhance their performance.     

Demographics in an alpine reindeer herd: effects of density and winter weather

We examined how population density, winter weather, snow conditions, and 2 large-scale climatic indices (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and Arctic Oscillation, AO) influenced demography (reproduction and mortality) in an alpine herd of semi-domesticated reindeer Rangifer tarandus between 1959 and 2000 in Finnish Lapland. The herd lived on heavily grazed lichen pastures, with winter densities between 0.8 and 3.9 individuals km⁻². Icing conditions occurred every 7th yr, on an average, and decreased reproductive rate (calves/females) by 49%. In general linear models icing remarkably increased the fit of snow models to reproductive rate. Incorporation of an interaction term between icing and the snow depth index provided better fit than a model without interaction. Delayed snowmelt decreased reproductive rate. For the day of snowmelt, however, the model without interaction was better than the interaction model. These 3 models provided the best fit to the data and accounted for 51–54% of the variation in reproductive rate. Winter mortality was related to density and large-scale climatic indices, but not to local winter weather except a slight increase in mortality during an icing winter. The best model for winter mortality, including reindeer density and NAO, accounted for 26% of variation in mortality. Three factors may be involved explaining weak density dependence or the lack of such dependence; climate change scenarios that predict higher winter temperature, more frequent thawing-freezing periods, and deeper snow would be expected to decrease reproductive rate and increase winter mortality of reindeer and thus to reduce profitability of reindeer husbandry. In contrast, early springs would be advantageous for reindeer in the short term.     

Lag responses in mood reports to changes in the weather matrix

Correlations were calculated between daily self-evaluated mood reports (4 reports/day) of 10 student subjects and 10 meteorological-geophysical variables over a 90-day period. The variables included mean and/or change measures of temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, sunshine hours, wind speeds and global geomagnetic activity. Multiple regression analyses indicated that the weather matrix used could account for not more than 35% of the mood variance on the day of the evaluation. Lag correlations over the previous week clearly indicated a greater number of significant correlations between mood reports and weather of the previous two days. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.27. In general, "lower moods" were associated with fewer sunshine hours, higher relative humidity, and smaller humidity variations than "higher moods". It was concluded that mood reports can show weak responsivity to antecedent weather fluctuations.     

The effects of daily weather variables on psychosis admissions to psychiatric hospitals

Several studies have noted seasonal variations in admission rates of patients with psychotic illnesses. However, the changeable daily meteorological patterns within seasons have never been examined in any great depth in the context of admission rates. A handful of small studies have posed interesting questions regarding a potential link between psychiatric admission rates and meteorological variables such as environmental temperature (especially heat waves) and sunshine. In this study, we used simple non-parametric testing and more complex ARIMA and time-series regression analysis to examine whether daily meteorological patterns (wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, rainfall, sunshine, sunlight and temperature) exert an influence on admission rates for psychotic disorders across 12 regions in Ireland. Although there were some weak but interesting trends for temperature, barometric pressure and sunshine, the meteorological patterns ultimately did not exert a clinically significant influence over admissions for psychosis. Further analysis is needed.