Risk of death from cancer and ischaemic heart disease in meat and non-meat eaters.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the health consequences of a vegetarian diet by examining the 12 year mortality of non-meat eaters and meat eating controls. DESIGN--Prospective observational study in which members of the non-meat eating cohort were asked to nominate friends or relatives as controls. SETTING--United Kingdom. SUBJECTS--6115 non-meat eaters identified through the Vegetarian Society of the United Kingdom and the news media (mean (SD) age 38.7 (16.8) years) and 5015 controls who were meat eaters (39.3 (15.4) years). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Standardised mortality ratios for cancer, ischaemic heart disease, and total mortality in the two cohorts and death rate ratio in the non-meat eaters compared with meat eaters after adjustment for potentially confounding variables. RESULTS--Standardised mortality ratios (taking the value among the general population as 100) for ischaemic heart disease were 51 (95% confidence interval 38 to 66) for meat eaters and 28 (20 to 38) for non-meat eaters (P < 0.01). Values for all cancers were 80 (64 to 98) and 50 (39 to 62) for meat eaters and non-meat eaters respectively. After adjustment for the effects of smoking, body mass index, and socioeconomic status death rate ratios in non-meat eaters compared with meat eaters were 0.72 (0.47 to 1.10) for ischaemic heart disease and 0.61 (0.44 to 0.84) for all cancers. CONCLUSIONS--The reduced mortality from cancer among those not eating meat is not explained by lifestyle related risk factors, which have a low prevalence among vegetarians. No firm conclusion can be made about deaths from ischaemic heart disease. These data do not justify advice to exclude meat from the diet since there are several attributes of a vegetarian diet apart from not eating meat which might reduce the risk.     

Changing social-class distribution of heart disease.

Analysis of mortality trends over 40 years in England and Wales showed that mortality from coronary heart disease had become progressively more common in working-class men and women than in those from the middle and upper classes. The change was most noticeable for men. Whereas in 1931 and 1951 heart disease was more common in men of social classes I and II, by 1961 it was more common in men of classes IV and V. This change in social-class distribution can only partly be explained by changes in diagnostic methods. The worsening mortality of classes IV and V correlated with relatively more smoking, a higher consumption of sugar, and a lower consumption of wholemeal bread in these classes. There was no correlation between change in heart disease and change in the social-class pattern of fat consumption.     

Prepared salads and public health

In recent years the importance of prepared salads as potential vehicles of gastrointestinal infection has been highlighted by several large outbreaks both nationally and across international boundaries. Between 1992 and 2006, 2274 foodborne general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease were reported in England and Wales, of which 4% were associated with the consumption of prepared salads. In total, 3434 people were affected, with 66 hospitalizations and one death reported. The attribution of prepared salad types and pathogens among prepared salad associated outbreaks are presented and discussed. Findings from UK studies on salad vegetables, fruit and mixed salads from 1995 to 2007 (21 247 samples) indicate that most bacteria of concern with regard to human health are relatively rare in these products (98.6% of satisfactory quality); however, outbreaks of salmonellosis were uncovered associated with bagged salad leaves and fresh herbs during two such studies. Although it is known that fresh salad vegetables, herbs or fruit may become contaminated from environmental sources, only in recent years has the association of foods of nonanimal origin, such as salad vegetables, with foodborne illness become evident and recurrent, demonstrating that major health problems can arise from consumption of contaminated prepared salads if hygiene practices breakdown.     

Mortality from ischaemic heart disease among patients using anticonvulsive drugs: a case-control study.

Patients who use phenytoin and some other anticonvulsive drugs have been shown to have raised concentrations of plasma high density lipoprotein. As this lipoprotein is known to be inversely associated with the incidence of ischaemic heart disease the causes of death of all patients with epilepsy known to be taking anticonvulsive drugs who died during 1978-80 were studied. Of 1399 deaths of anticonvulsant users, 258 (18.4%) were caused by ischaemic heart disease. This was significantly less (p less than 0.001) than the 382 deaths from ischaemic heart disease (27.3%) observed among paired controls matched for sex, age, and date of death. The total cardiovascular mortality was also lower among patients with epilepsy than among controls (p less than 0.02) despite there being more deaths due to cerebrovascular disease among patients. The difference in mortality from ischaemic heart disease was significant for both sexes and was not accounted for by excess deaths due to any other single cause. Users of phenytoin, carbamazepine, and barbiturates (alone or in combination) showed 29% less mortality due to ischaemic heart disease than respective controls (p less than 0.001).     

By how much and how quickly does reduction in serum cholesterol concentration lower risk of ischaemic heart disease?

OBJECTIVE--To estimate by how much and how quickly a given reduction in serum cholesterol concentration will reduce the risk of ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN--Data on the incidence of ischaemic heart disease and serum cholesterol concentration were analysed from 10 prospective (cohort) studies, three international studies in different communities, and 28 randomised controlled trials (with mortality data analysed according to allocated treatment to ensure the avoidance of bias). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Decrease in incidence of ischaemic heart disease or mortality for a 0.6 mmol/l (about 10%) decrease in serum cholesterol concentration. RESULTS--For men results from the cohort studies showed that a decrease of serum cholesterol concentration of 0.6 mmol/l (about 10%) was associated with a decrease in incidence of ischaemic heart disease of 54% at age 40 years, 39% at age 50, 27% at 60, 20% at 70, and 19% at 80. The combined estimate from the three international studies (for ages 55-64 years) was 38% (95% confidence interval 33% to 42%), somewhat greater than the cohort study estimate of 27%. The reductions in incidence of ischaemic heart disease in the randomised trials (for ages 55-64 years) were 7% (0 to 14%) in the first two years, 22% (15% to 28%) from 2.1-5 years, and 25% (15% to 35%) after five years, the last estimate being close to the estimate of 27% for the long term reduction from the cohort studies. The data for women are limited but indicate a similar effect. CONCLUSIONS--The results from the cohort studies, international comparisons, and clinical trials are remarkably consistent. The cohort studies, based on half a million men and 18,000 ischaemic heart disease events, estimate that a long term reduction in serum cholesterol concentration of 0.6 mmol/l (10%), which can be achieved by moderate dietary change, lowers the risk of ischaemic heart disease by 50% at age 40, falling to 20% at age 70. The randomised trials, based on 45,000 men and 4000 ischaemic heart disease events show that the full effect of the reduction in risk is achieved by five years.     

Ten year cerebrovascular morbidity and mortality in 68 year old men with asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

OBJECTIVE--To study the natural course of carotid artery stenosis detected by ultrasonography. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study. Baseline examination in 1982-3 included ultrasound examination of carotid arteries, measurement of ankle-brachial blood pressure index, and detection of atrial fibrillation by 24 hour ambulatory electrocardiography. SETTING--Malmö, a city in southern Sweden with 230,000 inhabitants. SUBJECTS--470 men aged 68 years randomly selected from the population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidence of stroke and transient ischaemic attack and all cause mortality during 10 years of follow up in relation to carotid stenosis, leg artery disease (ankle-brachial blood pressure index below 0.9), and atrial fibrillation. RESULTS--Fifty men had a stroke; six of these were haemorrhagic. Another 11 had a transient ischaemic attack. Eighteen of the men with carotid stenosis (21.6 events/1000 person years) and 43 of the men with normal carotid arteries (14.8 events/1000 person years) had a stroke or transient ischaemic attack (P = 0.188). Men with atrial fibrillation had an increased rate of cerebrovascular events (36.7/1000 person years (P = 0.048). The highest rate was found in men with asymptomatic disease of the leg arteries (38.6/1000 person years) (P < 0.001). The increased risk of stroke or transient ischaemic attack in this group remained after multivariate analysis (relative risk 2.0; 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.7). CONCLUSIONS--In this cohort carotid stenosis was not associated with an increased risk of stroke. Part of this lack of association was explained by the high mortality from ischaemic heart disease in men with severe stenosis. Twenty seven of the 61 cerebrovascular events, however, occurred in men who had normal carotid arteries, normal ankle pressure, and no atrial fibrillation.     

Change in alcohol consumption and risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the association between alcohol consumption and mortality from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease with a focus on differentiating between long term abstainers and more recent non-drinkers. DESIGN--Cohort study of changes in alcohol consumption from 1965 to 1974 and mortality from all causes and ischaemic heart disease during 1974-84. SETTING--Population based study of adult residents of Alameda County, California. SUBJECTS--2225 women and 1845 men aged 35 and over in 1965. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Alcohol consumption in 1964 and 1974 and mortality from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease during 1974-84. RESULTS--There was a significantly higher risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease in women who gave up drinking between 1965 and 1974 than in women who continued to drink (relative risk 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.66, and 2.75, 1.44 to 5.23, for all causes and ischaemic heart disease respectively). A significant increase in risk was not seen in men who gave up drinking (1.32, 0.87 to 2.01, and 0.95, 0.41 to 2.20, respectively). Among men, long term abstainers compared with drinkers were at increased risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease, though the associations were not significant (1.40, 0.98 to 2.00, and 1.40, 0.76 to 2.58, for all causes and ischaemic heart disease respectively). CONCLUSION--Some of the increased risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease associated with not drinking in women seems to be accounted for by higher risks among those who gave up drinking. Men who are long term abstainers may also be at an increased risk of death. The heterogeneity of the non-drinking group should be considered when comparisons are made with drinkers.     

Follow up study of moderate alcohol intake and mortality among middle aged men in Shanghai,China.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of death associated with various patterns of alcohol intake. DESIGN: Prospective study of mortality in relation to alcohol consumption at recruitment, with active annual follow up. SETTING: Four small, geographically defined communities in Shanghai, China. SUBJECTS: 18,244 men aged 45-64 years enrolled in a prospective study of diet and cancer during January 1986 to September 1989. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All cause mortality. RESULTS: By 28 February 1995, 1198 deaths (including 498 from cancer, 269 from stroke, and 104 from ischaemic heart disease) had been identified. Compared with lifelong non-drinkers, those who consumed 1-14 drinks a week had a 19% reduction in overall mortality (relative risk 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.94) after age, level of education, and cigarette smoking were adjusted for. This protective effect was not restricted to any specific type of alcoholic drink. Although light to moderate drinking (28 or fewer drinks per week) was associated with a 36% reduction in death from ischaemic heart disease (0.64; 0.41 to 0.998), it had no effect on death from stroke, which is the leading cause of death in this population. As expected, heavy drinking (29 or more drinks per week) was significantly associated with increased risks of death from cancer of the upper aerodigestive tract, hepatic cirrhosis, and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Regular consumption of small amounts of alcohol is associated with lower overall mortality including death from ischaemic heart disease in middle aged Chinese men. The type of alcoholic drink does not affect this association.     

Decline in ischaemic heart disease in Iceland and change in risk factor levels.

OBJECTIVE--To monitor trends in mortality and morbidity due to ischaemic heart disease and compare these with observed levels of risk factors from population surveys. DESIGN--Analysis of trends in death rates from ischaemic heart disease in Iceland compared with expected rates computed from population surveys. Risk factor levels together with beta factors obtained from Cox''s regression analysis were used to compute expected death rates. Trends in morbidity due to acute myocardial infarction were assessed and secular trends in dietary consumption compared with trends in cholesterol concentrations. SETTING--Reykjavik, Iceland (total population 250,000; over half the population live in Reykjavik). SUBJECTS--12,814 randomly selected residents in the Reykjavik area aged 45-64 (6623 men, 6191 women; 72% and 80% of those invited). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Age adjusted rates of myocardial infarction and deaths from ischaemic heart disease. Expected risk from risk factor levels (smoking, total serum cholesterol concentration, systolic blood pressure) at each unique survey visit. RESULTS--Mortality from ischaemic heart disease has decreased by 17-18% since 1970. During 1981-6 the myocardial infarction attack rate in men under 75 decreased by 23%. A decrease occurred in the level of all three major risk factors after 1968. The fall in the serum cholesterol concentration coincided with a reduction in consumption of dairy fat and margarine. The calculated reduction in risk for the age group 45-64 was about 35%, which was closely similar to the observed decrease in mortality due to ischaemic heart disease in that age group. CONCLUSION--The reduction in mortality from ischaemic heart disease was substantially due to a decreased incidence of myocardial infarction and could be attributed largely to the reduction in risk factors.     

Patterns of mortality among migrants to England and Wales from the Indian subcontinent.

Causes of deaths in immigrants to England and Wales from the Indian subcontinent were assessed by ethnic subgroup. Observed and expected deaths for 1975-7 were aggregated to calculate proportional mortality ratios. Observed mortality due to infective and parasitic diseases, endocrine diseases (notably diabetes), diseases of the circulatory system (notably ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, in males), and diseases of the digestive system (notably cirrhosis of the liver) exceeded expected mortality. Fewer than expected deaths were due to malignant neoplasms (notably lung cancer and chronic bronchitis); proportional mortality ratios for cancer were lower for Hindu groups than for Moslems and were lowest for Punjabis. Mortality due to ischaemic heart disease, high in all groups, was highest in Moslems. Significantly more Punjabi males died from cerebrovascular disease and cirrhosis of the liver. Diabetes was commonest among Gujaratis. The variation seen in the patterns of mortality in the different ethnic groups indicates the need for further epidemiological and health service research centred on these communities.     

Socioeconomic gradient in morbidity and mortality in people with diabetes: cohort study findings from the Whitehall Study and the WHO Multinational Study of Vascular Disease in Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the inverse socioeconomic mortality gradient observed in the general population persists in diabetic people. DESIGN: The Whitehall cohort study and the London cohort of the WHO multinational study of vascular disease in diabetes. SETTING: London. SUBJECTS: 17,264 male civil servants (17,046 without diabetes, 218 with diabetes) aged 40-64 examined in 1967-9, and 300 people with diabetes aged 35-55 from London clinics examined in 1975-7. Both cohorts were followed up until January 1995. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and ischaemic heart disease. RESULTS: In both cohorts people in the lower social groups were older, had higher blood pressure, and were more likely to smoke. In the Whitehall study, the prevalence of heart disease was higher in the lowest social group compared with the highest group, by 6% among non-diabetic people (P = 0.0001) and by 14% among diabetic subjects (P = 0.02). In the WHO study proteinuria was more common in the lowest social group compared with the highest (27% v 15%, P = 0.01), as was retinopathy (54% v 48%, P = 0.5). There was a clear socioeconomic gradient in all cause mortality in both cohorts, with death rates being about twice as high in the lowest compared with the highest social groups. In the Whitehall study this gradient was similar in both diabetic and non-diabetic subjects, and it persisted for mortality from cardiovascular disease and from ischaemic heart disease. About half of the increased risk of death in the lowest social group was accounted for by blood pressure and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: We confirm the existence of an inverse socioeconomic mortality gradient in diabetic people and suggest that this is largely due to conventional cardiovascular risk factors.     

Nut consumption and weight gain in a Mediterranean cohort: The SUN study

Objective: To assess the association, in a Mediterranean population, between nut consumption and risk of weight gain (at least 5 kg) or the risk of becoming overweight/obese. Research Methods and Procedures: The Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra project is a prospective cohort of 8865 adult men and women who completed a follow‐up questionnaire after a median of 28 months. Dietary habits were assessed with a previously validated semiquantitative food‐frequency questionnaire. Results: Nine hundred thirty‐seven participants reported a weight gain of ≥5 kg at follow‐up. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking, leisure time physical activity, and other known risk factors for obesity, participants who ate nuts two or more times per week had a significantly lower risk of weight gain (odds ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.53 to 0.90, p for trend = 0.006) than those who never or almost never ate nuts. Participants with little nut consumption (never/almost never) gained an average of 424 grams (95% confidence interval: 102 to 746) more than frequent nut eaters. Nut consumption was not significantly associated with incident overweight/obesity in the cohort. Discussion: Frequent nut consumption was associated with a reduced risk of weight gain (5 kg or more). These results support the recommendation of nut consumption as an important component of a cardioprotective diet and also allay fears of possible weight gain.     

Assessing possible hazards of reducing serum cholesterol.

OBJECTIVE--To assess whether low serum cholesterol concentration increases mortality from any cause. DESIGN--Systematic review of published data on mortality from causes other than ischaemic heart disease derived from the 10 largest cohort studies, two international studies, and 28 randomised trials, supplemented by unpublished data on causes of death obtained when necessary. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Excess cause specific mortality associated with low or lowered serum cholesterol concentration. RESULTS--The only cause of death attributable to low serum cholesterol concentration was haemorrhagic stroke. The excess risk was associated only with concentrations below about 5 mmol/l (relative risk 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 2.5), affecting about 6% of people in Western populations. For noncirculatory causes of death there was a pronounced difference between cohort studies of employed men, likely to be healthy at recruitment, and cohort studies of subjects in community settings, necessarily including some with existing disease. The employed cohorts showed no excess mortality. The community cohorts showed associations between low cholesterol concentration and lung cancer, haemopoietic cancers, suicide, chronic bronchitis, and chronic liver and bowel disease; these were most satisfactorily explained by early disease or by factors that cause the disease lowering serum cholesterol concentration (depression causes suicide and lowers cholesterol concentration, for example). In the randomised trials nine deaths (from a total of 687 deaths not due to ischaemic heart disease in treated subjects) were attributed to known adverse effects of the specific treatments, but otherwise there was no evidence of an increased mortality from any cause arising from reduction in cholesterol concentration. CONCLUSIONS--There is no evidence that low or reduced serum cholesterol concentration increases mortality from any cause other than haemorrhagic stroke. This risk affects only those people with a very low concentration and even in these will be outweighed by the benefits from the low risk of ischaemic heart disease.     

Hot weather warning might help to reduce elderly mortality in Hong Kong

While there was evidence on the relationship between extreme hot weather and the increase in mortality, particularly from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (stroke), some researchers suggested that early warning systems might reduce mortality. In this study, the relationship between Very Hot Weather Warning (VHWW) and mortality was examined in the context of Hong Kong, which has a sub-tropical climate. An observational study was conducted on the daily number of deaths due to IHD and stroke in the Hong Kong elderly population (aged 65 or above) during summer (May–September) in 1997–2005. Totals of 4,281 deaths from IHD and 4,764 deaths from stroke occurred on days with maximum temperature reaching/exceeding 30.4°C. Multiple linear regression models were used to study the association between VHWW and the daily mortality rates from IHD and from stroke, respectively. Results showed that absence of VHWW was associated with an increase of about 1.23 (95% CI: 0.32, 2.14) deaths from IHD and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.02, 1.92) deaths from stroke among the elderly per day. Public education is required to inform the elderly to take appropriate preventive measures and to remind the public to pay more care and attention to the elderly on days which are not considered to be stressful to the general public. Warning systems tailored for the elderly could also be considered.     

Changes in risk factors explain changes in mortality from ischaemic heart disease in Finland.

OBJECTIVES--To estimate the extent to which changes in the main coronary risk factors (serum cholesterol concentration, blood pressure, and smoking) explain the decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease and to evaluate the relative importance of change in each of these risk factors. DESIGN--Predicted changes in ischaemic heart disease mortality were calculated by a logistic regression model using the risk factor levels assessed by cross sectional population surveys, in 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987, and 1992. These predicted changes were compared with observed changes in mortality statistics. SETTING--North Karelia and Kuopio provinces, Finland. SUBJECTS--14,257 men and 14,786 women aged 30-59 randomly selected from the national population register. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Levels of the risk factors and predicted and observed changes in mortality from ischaemic heart disease. RESULTS--The observed changes in the risk factors in the population from 1972 to 1992 predicted a decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease of 44% (95% confidence interval 37% to 50%) in men and 49% (37% to 59%) in women. The observed decline was 55% (51% to 58%) and 68% (61 to 74) respectively. CONCLUSION--An assessment of the data on the risk factors for ischaemic heart disease and mortality suggests that most of the decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease can be explained by changes in the three main coronary risk factors.     

Fish consumption measured during pregnancy and risk of cardiovascular diseases later in life: an observational prospective study

Previous studies have indicated a protective effect of long chain n-3 PUFAs against cardiovascular disease; however, the overall evidence remains uncertain, and there is a general lack of knowledge in the field of cardiovascular epidemiology in women. Therefore, the objective of this study was to explore the association between fish intake and cardiovascular disease among 7429 women from a prospective pregnancy cohort in Aarhus, Denmark, who were followed for 12-17 years. Exposure information derived from a questionnaire sent to the women in gestation week 16, and daily fish consumption was quantified based on assumptions of standard portion sizes and food tables. Information on admissions to hospital was obtained from the Danish National Patient Registry and diagnoses of hypertensive, cerebrovascular and ischaemic heart disease were used to define the outcome: cardiovascular disease. During the follow-up period 263 events of cardiovascular disease were identified. Overall, there was no association between cardiovascular disease and fish intake, confidence intervals for effect estimates in the different fish intake groups were wide, overlapped and for all but one they encompassed unity. Restricting the analysis to women who had reported the same fish intake in a questionnaire in gestation week 30 did not alter these findings. In conclusion, our data from a prospective cohort of relatively young and initially healthy women from Aarhus linked with information from registries could not substantiate a protective effect of fish intake against cardiovascular disease.     

Mortality in circulatory diseases, especially ischaemic heart disease, among Swedish professional drivers: a retrospective cohort study.

The aim of the investigation was to study mortality from circulatory diseases, especially ischaemic heart disease (IHD), in a cohort of Swedish professional drivers. The cohort included 1,731 male members of the Swedish Transport Workers Union. During the follow-up period, 1974-1985, 123 drivers died. Information concerning the cause of death was acquired from the Cause-of-Death Register. Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) for circulatory diseases and ischaemic heart disease were significantly higher among professional drivers (SMR = 127 and 138, respectively) than in the reference group consisting of Swedish males.     

Alcohol consumption,serum low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration,and risk of ischaemic heart disease: six year follow up in the Copenhagen male study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the interplay between use of alcohol, concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and risk of ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN: Prospective study with controlling for several relevant confounders, including concentrations of other lipid fractions. SETTING: Copenhagen male study, Denmark. SUBJECTS: 2826 men aged 53-74 years without overt ischaemic heart disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of ischaemic heart disease during a six year follow up period. RESULTS: 172 men (6.1%) had a first ischaemic heart disease event. There was an overall inverse association between alcohol intake and risk of ischaemic heart disease. The association was highly dependent on concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol. In men with a high concentration (> or = 5.25 mmol/l) cumulative incidence rates of ischaemic heart disease were 16.4% for abstainers, 8.7% for those who drank 1-21 beverages a week, and 4.4% for those who drank 22 or more beverages a week. With abstainers as reference and after adjustment for confounders, corresponding relative risks (95% confidence interval) were 0.4 (0.2 to 1.0; P<0.05) and 0.2 (0.1 to 0.8; P<0.01). In men with a concentration <3.63 mmol/l use of alcohol was not associated with risk. The attributable risk (95% confidence interval) of ischaemic heart disease among men with concentrations > or = 3.63 mmol/l who abstained from drinking alcohol was 43% (10% to 64%). CONCLUSIONS: In middle aged and elderly men the inverse association between alcohol consumption and risk of ischaemic heart disease is highly dependent on the concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol. These results support the suggestion that use of alcohol may in part explain the French paradox.     

Decline in cardiovascular mortality in North Karelia and other parts of Finland.

The trends in mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular stroke, and all cardiovascular diseases were analysed for the province of North Karelia and for the rest of Finland. Linear trends in mortality were computed for the population aged 35 to 64 for the period from 1969 to 1982, and changes in mortality between the three year means of 1969-71 and 1980-2 were calculated. In North Karelia, where a community based preventive programme has been carried out since 1972, the annual decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease in men was on average 2.9%, whereas in the rest of Finland it was 2.0%. For women the respective average annual declines in mortality were 4.9% and 3.0%. The net decline from 1969-71 to 1980-2 in North Karelia was 100 deaths/100,000 men. The annual mortality from all cardiovascular disease in men decreased by 2.9% in North Karelia and by 2.6% in the rest of Finland; in women the decreases were 6.0% and 5.0% a year, respectively. The net decline in North Karelia was 71 deaths/100,000 men. The decline in mortality from all causes was also appreciable in both sexes in North Karelia, but it did not differ significantly from national trends.     

Mortality in relation to consumption of alcohol: 13 years' observations on male British doctors.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the risk of death associated with various patterns of alcohol consumption. DESIGN--Prospective study of mortality in relation to alcohol drinking habits in 1978, with causes of death sought over the next 13 years (to 1991). SUBJECTS--12,321 British male doctors born between 1900 and 1930 (mean 1916) who replied to a postal questionnaire in 1978. Those written to in 1978 were the survivors of a long running prospective study of the effects of smoking that had begun in 1951 and was still continuing. RESULTS--Men were divided on the basis of their response to the 1978 questionnaire into two groups according to whether or not they had ever had any type of vascular disease, diabetes, or "life threatening disease" and into seven groups according to the amount of alcohol they drank. By 1991 almost a third had died. All statistical analyses of mortality were standardised for age, calendar year, and smoking habit. There was a U shaped relation between all cause mortality and the average amount of alcohol reportedly drunk; those who reported drinking 8-14 units of alcohol a week (corresponding to an average of one to two units a day) had the lowest risks. The causes of death were grouped into three main categories: "alcohol augmented" causes (6% of all deaths: cirrhosis, liver cancer, upper aerodigestive (mouth, oesophagus, larynx, and pharynx) cancer, alcoholism, poisoning, or injury), ischaemic heart disease (33% of all deaths), and other causes. The few deaths from alcohol augmented causes showed, at least among regular drinkers, a progressive trend, with the risk increasing with dose. In contrast, the many deaths from ischaemic heart disease showed no significant trend among regular drinkers, but there were significantly lower rates in regular drinkers than in non-drinkers. The aggregate of all other causes showed a U shaped dose-response relation similar to that for all cause mortality. Similar differences persisted irrespective of a history of previous disease, age (under 75 or 75 and older), and period of follow up (first five and last eight years). Some, but apparently not much, of the excess mortality in non-drinkers could be attributed to the inclusion among them of a small proportion of former drinkers. CONCLUSION--The consumption of alcohol appeared to reduce the risk of ischaemic heart disease, largely irrespective of amount. Among regular drinkers mortality from all causes combined increased progressively with amount drunk above 21 units a week. Among British men in middle or older age the consumption of an average of one or two units of alcohol a day is associated with significantly lower all cause mortality than is the consumption of no alcohol, or the consumption of substantial amounts. Above about three units (two American units) of alcohol a day, progressively greater levels of consumption are associated with progressively higher all cause mortality.