Risk factors for developing non-insulin dependent diabetes: a 10 year follow up of men in Uppsala.

OBJECTIVE--To analyse anthropometric and metabolic characteristics as risk factors for development of non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus in middle aged normoglycaemic men. DESIGN--Prospective population study based on data collected in a health survey and follow up 10 years later. SETTING--Uppsala, a middle sized city in Sweden. SUBJECTS--2322 men aged 47-53, of whom 1860 attended the follow up 7-14 years later, at which time they were aged 56-64. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidence of non-insulin dependent diabetes. RESULTS--In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, variations of 1 SD from the mean of the group that remained euglycaemic were used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Blood glucose concentration 60 minutes after the start of an intravenous glucose tolerance test (odds ratio = 5.93, 95% confidence interval 3.05 to 11.5), fasting serum insulin concentration (2.12, 1.54 to 2.93), acute insulin increment at an intravenous glucose tolerance test (1.71, 1.21 to 2.43), body mass index (1.41, 1.01 to 1.97), and systolic blood pressure (1.23, 0.97 to 1.56) were independent predictors of diabetes. In addition, the use of antihypertensive drugs at follow up (selective or unselective beta blocking agents, thiazides, or hydralazine) was an independent risk factor (1.70, 1.11 to 2.60). CONCLUSIONS--Metabolic and anthropometric characteristics associated with or reflecting insulin resistance as well as a poor acute insulin response to glucose challenge were important predictors of future diabetes in middle aged men. Antihypertensive drugs were found to constitute a further, iatrogenic risk factor.     

10 year follow up study of mortality among users of hostels for homeless people in Copenhagen

Objectives To investigate mortality among users of hostels for homeless people in Copenhagen, and to identify predictors of death such as conditions during upbringing, mental illness, and misuse of alcohol and drugs.Design Register based follow up study.Setting Two hostels for homeless people in Copenhagen, DenmarkParticipants 579 people who stayed in one hostel in Copenhagen in 1991, and a representative sample of 185 people who stayed in the original hostel and one other in Copenhagen.Main outcome measure Cause specific mortality.Results The age and sex standardised mortality ratio for both sexes was 3.8 (95% confidence interval 3.5 to 4.1); 2.8 (2.6 to 3.1) for men and 5.6 (4.3 to 6.9) for women. The age and sex standardised mortality ratio for suicide for both sexes was 6.0 (3.9 to 8.1), for death from natural causes 2.6 (2.3 to 2.9), for unintentional injuries 14.6 (11.4 to 17.8), and for unknown cause of death 62.9 (52.7 to 73.2). Mortality was comparatively higher in the younger age groups. It was also significantly higher among homeless people who had stayed in a hostel more than once and stayed fewer than 11 days, compared with the rest of the study group. Risk factors for early death were premature death of the father and misuse of alcohol and sedatives.Conclusion Homeless people staying in hostels, particularly young women, are more likely to die early than the general population. Other predictors of early death include adverse experiences in childhood, such as death of the father, and misuse of alcohol and sedatives.     

Predictors of mortality of patients newly diagnosed with clinical type 2 diabetes: a 5-year follow up study

Background

At diabetes diagnosis major decisions about life-style changes and treatments are made based on characteristics measured shortly after diagnosis. The predictive value for mortality of these early characteristics is widely unknown. We examined the predictive value of patient characteristics measured shortly after diabetes diagnosis for 5-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality with special reference to self-rated general health.

Methods

Data were from a population-based sample of 1,323 persons newly diagnosed with clinical diabetes and aged 40 years or over. Possible predictors of mortality were investigated in Cox regression models.

Results

Multivariately patients who rated their health less than excellent experienced increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. These end-points also increased with sedentary life-style, relatively young age at diagnosis and presence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at diagnosis. Further predictors of all-cause mortality were male sex, low body mass index and cancer, while cardiovascular mortality increased with urinary albumin concentration.

Conclusions

We found that patients who rated their health as less than excellent had increased 5-year mortality, similar to that of patients with prevalent CVD, even when biochemical, clinical and life-style variables were controlled for. This finding could motivate doctors to discuss perceptions of health with newly diagnosed diabetic patients and be attentive to patients with suboptimal health ratings. Our findings also confirm that life-style changes and optimizing treatment are particularly relevant for relatively young and inactive patients and those who already have CVD or (micro)albuminuria at the time of diabetes diagnosis.     

Socioeconomic differences in mortality among diabetic people in Finland: five year follow up.

OBJECTIVE: To compare socioeconomic differences in mortality (by cause of death) among diabetic people with those in the rest of the population. DESIGN: Five year follow up of mortality in the population of Finland, comparing people with diabetes and those without diabetes. SETTING: Finland. SUBJECTS: All residents of Finland aged 30 to 74 included in the 1980 census. Subjects were classified as diabetic (230,000 person years) or other (12,400,000 person years) according to whether they were exempted from charges for medication for diabetes. During 1981-5 there were 114,058 deaths, of which 11,215 were in people with diabetes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age standardised mortality by sex, social class, and cause of death for the diabetic and non-diabetic populations. RESULTS: No significant social class differences in mortality were found among women with diabetes. Among diabetic men there was a slight increasing trend in mortality from the upper while collar group to the unskilled blue collar workers but it was much less steep than that of non-diabetic men. CONCLUSIONS: Among people with diabetes in Finland the quality of treatment and compliance with treatment probably do not vary by socioeconomic status. Health education for diabetic people seems to be effective in all socioeconomic strata; in people from the lower strata this leads to greater changes because their health behavior was originally less good.     

Differences in mortality and morbidity in African Caribbean and European people with non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus: results of 20 year follow up of a London cohort of a multinational study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine differences in morbidity and mortality due to non-insulin dependent diabetes in African Caribbeans and Europeans. DESIGN: Cohort study of patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes drawn from diabetes clinics in London. Baseline investigations were performed in 1975-7; follow up continued until 1995. PATIENTS: 150 Europeans and 77 African Caribbeans with non-insulin dependent diabetes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All cause and cardiovascular mortality; prevalence of microvascular and macrovascular complications. RESULTS: Duration of diabetes was shorter in African Caribbeans, particularly women. African Caribbeans were more likely than the Europeans to have been given a diagnosis after the onset of symptoms and less likely to be taking insulin. Mean cholesterol concentration was lower in African Caribbeans, but blood pressure and body mass index were not different in the two ethnic groups. Prevalence of microvascular and macrovascular complications was insignificantly lower in African Caribbens than in Europeans. 59 Europeans and 16 African Caribbeans had died by the end of follow up. The risk ratio for all cause mortality was 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.23 to 0.73) (P = 0.002) for African Caribbeans v Europeans. This was attenuated to 0.59 (0.32 to 1.10) (P = 0.1) after adjustment for sex, smoking, proteinuria, and body mass index. Further adjustment for systolic blood pressure, cholesterol concentration, age, duration of diabetes, and treatment made little difference to the risk ratio. Unadjusted risk ratio for cardiovascular and ischaemic heart disease were 0.33 (0.15 to 0.70) (P = 0.004) and 0.37 (0.16 to 0.85) (P = 0.02) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: African Caribbeans with non-insulin dependent diabetes maintain a low risk of heart disease. Management priorities for diabetes developed in one ethnic group may not necessarily be applicable to other groups.     

Proteinuria: value as predictor of cardiovascular mortality in insulin dependent diabetes mellitus.

The relation between diabetic microangiopathy and macroangiopathy was studied by analysing the relative mortality from cardiovascular disease in patients with insulin dependent diabetes mellitus with and without persistent proteinuria. The study group comprised 2890 diabetics diagnosed between 1933 and 1972 before the age of 31, and the study was conducted by using the linear logistic discrete failure time model. In patients with proteinuria the relative mortality from cardiovascular disease was 37 times that in the general population; in patients without proteinuria it was 4.2 times that in the general population. In both groups women had a relative mortality twice to 2.6 times that of men. In neither group was relative mortality correlated with duration of diabetes, suggesting that the association between diabetes and cardiovascular disease may be conferred by factors other than hyperglycaemia and hyperinsulinaemia. The high relative mortality from cardiovascular disease in diabetics with proteinuria indicates a strong association between diabetic microangiopathy and macroangiopathy, suggesting a common (pathogenetic?) mechanism for these two late diabetic complications.     

High mortality by natural and unnatural causes: a 10 year follow up study of patients admitted to a poisoning treatment centre after suicide attempts.

OBJECTIVE--To describe mortality by suicide and other causes of death in a group of patients who attempted suicide, and to identify predictive factors. DESIGN--10 year follow up study based on records of suicide attempters in 1980. SETTING--Poisoning treatment centre at a general hospital. SUBJECTS--974 patients aged 15 and over referred to the poisoning treatment centre after deliberate self poisoning. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Death by different causes registered in the Danish death cause register. RESULTS--In 10 years of follow up 306 patients died: 103 by suicide, 131 from natural causes, and 31 by accident; five were murdered, and in 36 cases the cause of death was uncertain. The standard mortality ratio was 550. Cause specific standardised mortality rates were 2960 for suicide, 236 for natural causes, 1256 for accidents, and 5459 for uncertain causes. In a Cox regression analysis, high risk factors for subsequent suicide were: more than one previous suicide attempt (relative risk 2.25), living alone (2.28), and age (1.03 per year). Predictors of death by natural causes were receiving a pension (1.69), drug misuse (2.72), more than one previous suicide attempt (2.25), age (1.06 per year), and male sex (2.49). The group of patients fulfilling at least one high risk criterion for later suicide differed significantly from the rest of the patient group in incidence of suicide, but both sensitivity and specificity were low. CONCLUSIONS--Most patients who attempted suicide were at high risk of succeeding because the risk factors, though significant, are not very specific. A strategy to prevent suicide must be directed toward the majority of those who attempt suicide.     

Live measles vaccine: a 21 year follow up.

21 years after receiving Schwartz strain live measles vaccine 4500 trial participants showed a continuing high level of protection compared with those who were unvaccinated. Over the last seven years of the follow up no cases of measles were reported in vaccinated participants who had had close contact with the disease. Immunity induced by the vaccine seems to survive the challenge of close contact with measles in young children, even after 21 years.     

Radiological progression and lung function in silicosis: a ten year follow up study.

Chest radiographs and spirometric tests were performed on 81 patients who had silicosis from two granite quarries in 1975, 73 of whom were followed up for two to 10 (mean 7.2) years. Each patient''s initial and most recent chest radiographs were assessed independently by three experienced readers, and the yearly declines in forced expiratory volume in one second and forced vital capacity were estimated from two to four (mean 3.45) serial spirometric readings. Estimates of individual dust exposure were based on extensive historical data on hygiene. All but 11 patients were no longer exposed to dust by the start of follow up, but 24 (45%) of 53 patients who had simple silicosis and 11 (55%) of 20 who had the complicated disease showed radiological evidence of disease progression. In patients who had simple silicosis and showed no radiological progression the yearly declines in forced expiratory volume in one second and forced vital capacity were modest (64 ml/year and 59 ml/year, respectively), whereas significantly greater declines in lung function were seen in those who showed radiological evidence of progression (97 ml/year and 95 ml/year, respectively). In addition to radiological progression the previous average dust concentration to which patients had been exposed also influenced declines in both forced expiratory volume in one second and forced vital capacity after allowing for the effects of age, smoking, duration of exposure, history of tuberculosis, initial state of disease, and baseline lung function. The probability of radiological progression was most strongly influenced by the average dust concentration previously exposed to. The progression of simple silicosis is thus accompanied by appreciable declines in lung function and is strongly affected by previous levels of exposure to dust.     

Operations for portal hypertension due to extrahepatic obstruction: results and 10 year follow up.

Between 1976 and 1984, 136 patients with portal hypertension due to extrahepatic obstruction were operated on. Twenty two patients had emergency and 114 elective operations. The operative mortality was 9% and 1%, respectively. Altogether 117 patients (86%) were followed up for from two to 10 years: 17 rebled, none developed encephalopathy or sepsis after splenectomy, and 90% and 75% were alive at five and 10 years respectively. Unlike endoscopic sclerotherapy and treatment with propranolol, operative treatment of variceal bleeding can usually be completed during one admission and carries a low mortality and a fairly low morbidity. Operation seems to be the best form of treatment for poor patients living far from medical facilities in developing countries and may be the treatment of choice in developed countries as well.     

West Berkshire perineal management trial: three year follow up.

Women who had participated in a randomised controlled trial of policies of restricted (10%) versus liberal (51%) episiotomy during spontaneous vaginal delivery were recontacted by postal questionnaire three years after delivery. Altogether 674 out of 1000 responded, and there was no evidence of a differential response rate between the two trial groups. Similar numbers of women in the two groups reported further deliveries, almost all of which had been vaginal and spontaneous. Fewer women allocated to restrictive use of episiotomy required perineal suturing after subsequent delivery, but this difference was not significant. Pain during sexual intercourse and incontinence of urine were equally reported in the two groups. The similarity in incontinence rates persisted when severity, type of incontinence, and subsequent deliveries were taken into account. Liberal use of episiotomy does not seem to prevent urinary incontinence or increase long term dyspareunia.     

Mortality among oral contraceptive users: 20 year follow up of women in a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE--To see whether the use of oral contraceptives influences mortality. DESIGN--Non-randomised cohort study of 17,032 women followed up on an annual basis for an average of nearly 16 years. SETTING--17 Family planning clinics in England and Scotland. SUBJECTS--Women recruited during 1968-74. At the time of recruitment each woman was aged 25-39, married, a white British subject, willing to participate, and either a current user of oral contraceptives or a current user of a diaphragm or intrauterine device (without previous exposure to the pill). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Overall mortality and cause specific mortality. RESULTS--238 Deaths occurred during the follow up period. The main analyses concerned women entering the study while using either oral contraceptives or a diaphragm or intrauterine device. The overall relative risk of death in the oral contraceptive users was 0.9 (95% confidence interval 0.7 to 1.2). Though the numbers of deaths were small in most individual disease categories, the trends observed were generally consistent with findings in other reports. Thus the relative risk of death in the oral contraceptive users was 4.9 (95% confidence interval 0.7 to 230) for cancer of the cervix, 3.3 (95% confidence interval 0.9 to 17.9) for ischaemic heart disease, and 0.4 (95% confidence interval 0.1 to 1.2) for ovarian cancer. There was a linear trend in the death rates from cervical cancer and ovarian cancer (in opposite directions) with total duration of oral contraceptive use. Death rates from breast cancer (relative risk 0.9; 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 1.4) and suicide and probable suicide (relative risk 1.1; 95% confidence interval 0.3 to 3.6) were much the same in the two contraceptive groups. In 1981 the relative risk of death in oral contraceptive users from circulatory diseases as a group was reported to be 4.2 (95% confidence interval 2.3 to 7.7) in the Royal College of General Practitioners oral contraception study. The corresponding relative risk in this study was only 1.5 (95% confidence interval 0.7 to 3.0). CONCLUSIONS--These findings contain no significant evidence of any overall effect of oral contraceptive use on mortality. None the less, only small numbers of deaths occurred during the study period and a significant adverse (or beneficial) overall effect might emerge in the future. Interestingly, the mortality from circulatory disease associated with oral contraceptive use was substantially less than that found in the Royal College of General Practitioners study.     

Do socioeconomic differences in mortality persist after retirement? 25 year follow up of civil servants from the first Whitehall study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of death associated with work based and non-work based measures of socioeconomic status before and after retirement age. DESIGN: Follow up study of mortality in relation to employment grade and car ownership over 25 years. SETTING: The first Whitehall study. SUBJECTS: 18,133 male civil servants aged 40-69 years who attended a screening examination between 1967 and 1970. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Death. RESULTS: Grade of employment was a strong predictor of mortality before retirement. For men dying at ages 40-64 the lowest employment grade had 3.12 times the mortality of the highest grade (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 4.1). After retirement the ability of grade to predict mortality declined (rate ratio 1.86; 1.6 to 2.2). A non-work based measure of socioeconomic status (car ownership) predicted mortality less well than employment grade before retirement but its ability to predict mortality declined less after retirement. Using a relative index of inequality that was sensitive to the distribution among socioeconomic groups showed employment grade and car ownership to have independent associations with mortality that were of equal magnitude after retirement. The absolute difference in death rates between the lowest and highest employment grades increased with age from 12.9 per 1000 person years at ages 40-64 to 38.3 per 1000 at ages 70-89. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic differences in mortality persist beyond retirement age and in magnitude increase with age. Social differentials in mortality based on an occupational status measure seem to decrease to a greater degree after retirement than those based on a non-work measure. This suggests that alongside other socioeconomic factors work itself may play an important part in generating social inequalities in health in men of working age.     

Social effects of wheeze in childhood: a 25 year follow up.

OBJECTIVES--To determine the outcome of childhood wheeze in terms of education, employment, housing, and social class. DESIGN--25 year follow up study. SETTING--Community study based at the department of thoracic medicine, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary. PARTICIPANTS--Three groups of subjects who had been identified in a random community survey in 1964: those who had had asthma in childhood (n = 97), those who had wheezed only in the presence of upper respiratory tract infections (n = 132), and a comparison group who had had no respiratory symptoms as children (n = 131). Subjects were aged 34 to 40 years at the time of the current study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Interview and questionnaire data on education, employment, housing and social class, ventilatory function, and peak flow rate. RESULTS--Pulmonary function testing showed that only the "asthmatic" group had airways obstruction; this group showed greater peak flow variation than the "wheezy" group, which did not differ from the comparison group. The asthmatic subjects were more likely to have experienced respiratory problems during their school years and associated with their work. Despite these problems, educational attainment, employment, housing, and eventual social class were similar for all three groups. CONCLUSION--Childhood wheeze did not adversely affect education, employment, housing, or social class in this population.