Diseased Social Predators

Social predators benefit from cooperation in the form of increased hunting success, but may be at higher risk of disease infection due to living in groups. Here, we use mathematical modeling to investigate the impact of disease transmission on the population dynamics benefits provided by group hunting. We consider a predator–prey model with foraging facilitation that can induce strong Allee effects in the predators. We extend this model by an infectious disease spreading horizontally and vertically in the predator population. The model is a system of three nonlinear differential equations. We analyze the equilibrium points and their stability as well as one- and two-parameter bifurcations. Our results show that weakly cooperating predators go unconditionally extinct for highly transmissible diseases. By contrast, if cooperation is strong enough, the social behavior mediates conditional predator persistence. The system is bistable, such that small predator populations are driven extinct by the disease or a lack of prey, and large predator populations survive because of their cooperation even though they would be doomed to extinction in the absence of group hunting. We identify a critical cooperation level that is needed to avoid the possibility of unconditional predator extinction. We also investigate how transmissibility and cooperation affect the stability of predator–prey dynamics. The introduction of parasites may be fatal for small populations of social predators that decline for other reasons. For invasive predators that cooperate strongly, biocontrol by releasing parasites alone may not be sufficient.     

A Model for Cross-Cultural Reciprocal Interactions through Mass Media

We investigate the problem of cross-cultural interactions through mass media in a model where two populations of social agents, each with its own internal dynamics, get information about each other through reciprocal global interactions. As the agent dynamics, we employ Axelrod''s model for social influence. The global interaction fields correspond to the statistical mode of the states of the agents and represent mass media messages on the cultural trend originating in each population. Several phases are found in the collective behavior of either population depending on parameter values: two homogeneous phases, one having the state of the global field acting on that population, and the other consisting of a state different from that reached by the applied global field; and a disordered phase. In addition, the system displays nontrivial effects: (i) the emergence of a largest minority group of appreciable size sharing a state different from that of the applied global field; (ii) the appearance of localized ordered states for some values of parameters when the entire system is observed, consisting of one population in a homogeneous state and the other in a disordered state. This last situation can be considered as a social analogue to a chimera state arising in globally coupled populations of oscillators.     

A quasispecies on a moving oasis

A population evolving in an inhomogeneous environment will adapt differently to different areas. We study the conditions under which such a population can maintain adaptations to a particular region when that region is not stationary, but can move. In particular, we consider a haploid population living near a moving favorable patch ("oasis") in the middle of a large "desert." At one genetic locus, individuals may have one of a few gene sequences that convey an advantage while in the oasis at the cost of a disadvantage in the desert. The distribution of genetic states in the population, possibly localized in genome space around the oasis-adapted genotypes, is known as a quasispecies. We find that the ratio of oasis-adapted individuals to desert-adapted ones exhibits sharp transitions at particular oasis velocities. We calculate an extinction velocity, and a switching velocity above which the dominance switches from the oasis-adapted genotype to the desert-adapted one. This switching velocity is analogous to the quasispecies mutational error threshold. Above this velocity, the population cannot maintain adaptations to the properties of the oasis.     

Introgression between highly divergent fungal sister species

To understand how species evolve and adapt to changing environments, it is important to study gene flow and introgression due to their influence on speciation and radiation events. Here, we apply a novel experimental system for investigating these mechanisms using natural populations. The system is based on two fungal sister species with morphological and ecological similarities occurring in overlapping habitats. We examined introgression between these species by conducting whole genome sequencing of individuals from populations in North America and Europe. We assessed genome-wide nucleotide divergence and performed crossing experiments to study reproductive barriers. We further used ABBA–BABA statistics together with a network analysis to investigate introgression, and conducted demographic modelling to gain insight into divergence times and introgression events. The results revealed that the species are highly divergent and incompatible in vitro. Despite this, small regions of introgression were scattered throughout the genomes and one introgression event likely involves a ghost population (extant or extinct). This study demonstrates that introgression can be found among divergent species and that population histories can be studied without collections of all the populations involved. Moreover, the experimental system is shown to be a useful tool for research on reproductive isolation in natural populations.     

Causes and consequences of small population size for a specialist parasitoid wasp

The parasitoid wasp Cotesia melitaearum lives in extremely small extinction-prone populations in the Åland islands of southwest Finland. Intensive observational data from two generations, a laboratory competition experiment, and 8 years of survey data were used to measure the causes, extent and consequences of small population size for this parasitoid. In the spring generations of 1999 and of 2000 we observed 21 out of 23 and 26 populations respectively, ranging in size from 2 to 103 parasitoid cocoons. Within these populations the fraction of individuals surviving to adulthood decreased with increasing parasitoid population size. The largest source of mortality was predation (44%) followed by parasitism (20%) and unknown causes (10%). In the field about 30% of the host butterfly larvae are parasitized by a competing parasitoid, Hyposoter horticola. A laboratory competition experiment showed that C. melitaearum eggs died when laid in post-diapause host larvae occupied by H. horticola. Consequently one-third of the progeny of the over-wintering generation of C. melitaearum from the field die as a result of larval competition. The survey of host and parasitoid population dynamics over 8 years showed that extinction of local host butterfly populations occupied by the parasitoid was not associated with current parasitoid population size. Over the same period small parasitoid populations were more likely to become extinct than large populations. However, parasitoid population size was not related to parasitoid extinction when the host also became extinct. These data suggest that the parasitoid populations are kept small through the action of natural enemies and competitors, some of which are density dependent. Local populations are so small that they become extinct frequently and rarely measurably affect the population dynamics of their host. It is likely that this parasitoid persists in Åland because of the spatial asynchrony of local population dynamics.     

Persistence of selfish genetic elements: population structure and conflict

Selfish genetic elements are vertically transmitted factors that spread by obtaining a transmission advantage relative to the rest of the genome of their host organism, often with a cost to overall host fitness. In many cases, conventional population genetics theory predicts them spreading through populations, reaching fixation and becoming undetectable or sometimes driving the population extinct. However, in several well studied systems, these genetic elements are known to persist at relatively low, stable frequencies. Recent research suggests that several processes might explain these observations, including population structure, intragenomic conflict and coevolution.     

Gene Flow and the Geographical Distribution of a Molecular Polymorphism in DROSOPHILA PSEUDOOBSCURA

This paper discusses the relation between the geographical distribution of an enzyme polymorphism and population structure in Drosophila pseudoobscura. California populations of this species living in very different montane and lowland habitats separated by several kilometers are similar to each other in the frequency of an esterase allele. Previous estimates suggest that gene flow is too limited to account for this homogeneity of genetic structure, so that it must reflect some balancing force of natural selection. We show, however, that dispersal over unfavorable habitats is much greater than earlier supposed. Isolated populations of D. pseudoobscura separated by 15 km from other populations are subject to large amounts of immigration. This is shown by changes in the seasonal abundance of this species and in the annual pattern of lethal alleles in such populations. The genetic structure of an experimentally perturbed isolated population in an oasis returned to normal within a single year, suggesting that such populations are ephemeral and that the oasis is subject to annual recolonization by distant migrants. Direct assessment of marked flies shows that they can move at least 10 km in 24 hours over a desert. Such extensive gene flow may help explain the distribution of the esterase allele, and is relevant to the high level of molecular polymorphism and its general lack of geographic differentiation throughout the range of D. pseudoobscura.     

Mutation accumulation in populations of varying size: large effect mutations cause most mutational decline in the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus under UV‐C radiation

Theory predicts that fitness decline via mutation accumulation will depend on population size, but there are only a few direct tests of this key idea. To gain a qualitative understanding of the fitness effect of new mutations, we performed a mutation accumulation experiment with the facultative sexual rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus at six different population sizes under UV‐C radiation. Lifetime reproduction assays conducted after ten and sixteen UV‐C radiations showed that while small populations lost fitness, fitness losses diminished rapidly with increasing population size. Populations kept as low as 10 individuals were able to maintain fitness close to the nonmutagenized populations throughout the experiment indicating that selection was able to remove the majority of large effect mutations in small populations. Although our results also seem to imply that small populations are effectively immune to mutational decay, we caution against this interpretation. Given sufficient time, populations of moderate to large size can experience declines in fitness from accumulating weakly deleterious mutations as demonstrated by fitness estimates from simulations and, tentatively, from a long‐term experiment with populations of moderate size. There is mounting evidence to suggest that mutational distributions contain a heavier tail of large effects. Our results suggest that this is also true when the mutational spectrum is altered by UV radiation.     

The demography of extinction in eastern North American birds

Species are being lost at an unprecedented rate during the Anthropocene. Progress has been made in clarifying how species traits influence their propensity to go extinct, but the role historical demography plays in species loss or persistence is unclear. In eastern North America, five charismatic landbirds went extinct last century, and the causes of their extinctions have been heavily debated. Although these extinctions are most often attributed to post-colonial human activity, other factors such as declining ancestral populations prior to European colonization could have made these species particularly susceptible. We used population genomic data from these extinct birds and compared them with those from four codistributed extant species. We found extinct species harboured lower genetic diversity and effective population sizes than extant species, but both extinct and non-extinct birds had similar demographic histories of population expansion. These demographic patterns are consistent with population size changes associated with glacial–interglacial cycles. The lack of support for overall population declines during the Pleistocene corroborates the view that, although species that went extinct may have been vulnerable due to low diversity or small population size, their disappearance was driven by human activities in the Anthropocene.     

The inheritance and population genetics of sex ratio in the butterfly Acraea encedon

In West and East Africa the butterfly, Acraea encedon , occurs in well-defined populations that are often predominantly female. Breeding the butterfly in the laboratory revealed the presence of an all-female strain, which is inherited directly through the female parent. It is probable that the inheritance is controlled by a Y-linked gene, causing meiotic drive in the Y chromosome, but the possibility of cytoplasmic inheritance has not been ruled out. A simple model for the population genetics of a predominantly female population indicates that such a population should rapidly become extinct due to the spreading of the all-female strain, but in most field populations studied extinction does not occur as quickly as predicted, if at all. Three factors which could enable populations to avoid extinction are investigated: suppressing systems, frequency-dependent mating preference and the sequence of emergence of the sexes in normal broods. No positive evidence has yet been found for the existence of a gene or genes capable of suppressing the sex ratio aberration, and no frequency-dependent mating preference was found, but an argument is presented which shows that the sequence of emergence in normal broods could be partly responsible for the maintenance of stable equilibria in predominantly female populations. Attempts to upset the sex ratio in the normal strain by making crosses between widely separated populations were not successful.     

Maintenance of the sexes and persistence of a clonal organism in spatially complex metapopulations

Clonal organisms persist at a range of population sex ratios, from equal numbers of males and females to single-sex systems. When intersexual competition is strong enough to drive one sex locally extinct, the maintenance of the sexes is facilitated by the semi-independent dynamics of populations within a metapopulation. These semi-independent dynamics are influenced by dispersal and recolonization rates, which are affected by the spatial arrangement of populations. To establish the quantitative relationship between spatially complex metapopulations and the maintenance of the sexes, we used a mathematical model of the liverwort Marchantia inflexa. This clonal organism is found in discrete patches on rocks and along the banks of streams, which form single-sex and two-sex metapopulations. In this system, asexual propagules mainly disperse short distances. Long-distance between-patch dispersal and recolonization mainly occurs via sexual propagules, which require both sexes to be present. Dispersal of these two types of propagules could interact with the spatial arrangement of populations to affect the maintenance of the sexes. With our mathematical model, we found that at intermediate distances between populations, metapopulations maintained both sexes, and the spatial arrangement of populations changed the threshold at which one sex was lost. On the other hand, when populations were close to one another, one sex was lost and the single-sex metapopulation persisted through dispersal of asexual propagules. When populations were far apart, one sex was lost, and the metapopulation either went extinct due to lack of recolonization by asexual propagules or persisted because clumped populations facilitated recolonization. These idealized spatial arrangements help clarify the effects of the spatial arrangement on the maintenance of the sexes and the persistence of metapopulations of clonal organisms, which can help explain geographic parthenogenesis and the distribution of asexual populations, the persistence of asexual species, and inform the conservation of clonal organisms.     

Two decades of demography reveals that seed and seedling transitions limit population persistence in a translocated shrub

Background and Aims

Olearia flocktoniae is an endangered shrub that was passively translocated from its natural ecosystem, where it has since gone extinct. This study aimed to determine sensitivities vital to populations persisting in human-created areas.

Methods

Population colonization, longevity and extinction were investigated over 20 years using 133 populations. Seed-bank longevity was determined from germination trials of seeds exhumed from extinct and extant sites via a 10-year glasshouse trial and by in situ sowing experiments. From 27 populations, 98 cohorts were followed and matrix models of transitions from seeds to adults were used to evaluate the intrinsic rate of population growth against disturbance histories. Ten populations (38 cohorts) with different disturbance histories were used to evaluate sensitivities in vital rates.

Key Results

Most populations had few individuals (∼30) and were transient (<5 years above ground). The intrinsic population growth rate was rarely >1 and all but two populations were extinct at year 20. Seeds were short-lived in situ. Although >1000 seeds per plant were produced annually in most populations, sensitivity analysis showed that the transition to the seed bank and the transition from the seed bank to seedlings are key vulnerabilities in the life-cycle.

Conclusions

Seedling establishment is promoted by recent disturbance. Increasing the number of disturbance events in populations, even severe disturbances that almost extirpate populations, significantly increases longer-term population persistence. Only populations that were disturbed annually survived the full 20 years of the study. The results show that translocated populations of O. flocktoniae will fail to persist without active management.     

Which way to manipulate host reproduction? Wolbachia that cause cytoplasmic incompatibility are easily invaded by sex ratio-distorting mutants

The bacterium Wolbachia manipulates its hosts by inducing cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI), where zygotes formed from crosses between uninfected mothers and infected fathers die. In addition, it distorts the host's sex ratio via male killing, parthenogenesis induction, or feminization. Here, we model transitions between these states, examining the evolution of mutants of CI strains that retain both the ability to induce and resist CI but, in addition, cause sex ratio distortion. The model shows that CI strains are highly susceptible to invasion and subsequent elimination by these mutants. For all three types of sex ratio distortion, there is some parameter space in which the strain showing sex ratio distortion becomes extinct following exclusion of the progenitor CI strain, leaving the population uninfected. Extinction of the new Wolbachia strain is common for the case of male killing but rarer for parthenogenesis induction and feminization. Our models predict that CI strains of Wolbachia will occur most commonly in hosts that are male heterogametic, where there is little interaction between siblings because these hosts are unlikely to favor the spread of male killing, feminization, or parthenogenesis induction. The models raise the question of why CI strains apparently predominate in nature, and it is suggested that this is a result of either fewer restrictions on CI strains spreading through novel host populations or restrictions to the mutability of Wolbachia strains.     

Photoinhibition and the assembly of light‐limited phytoplankton communities

Photoinhibition is characterised by a decreasing rate of photosynthesis with increasing light. It occurs in many photosynthetic organisms and is especially apparent in phytoplankton species sensitive to high light. Yet, the population and community level consequences of photoinhibition are not well understood. Here, we present a resource competition model that includes photoinhibition. The model shows that, in strong light, photoinhibition leads to an increase of the specific growth rate with increasing population density due to self‐shading. This so‐called Allee effect can be either weak or strong. In monoculture, a strong Allee effect results in two alternative stable states. A low population density does not provide sufficient shade to protect itself against photoinhibition, such that the population goes extinct. Conversely, above a threshold population density the population may create sufficiently turbid conditions to suppress photoinhibition, so that the population can establish itself. When several species compete for light, a species which cannot establish itself due to photoinhibition can be facilitated by other species less sensitive to photoinhibition. If such facilitators are absent, photoinhibition may cause alternative stable states in community composition. Since each alternative stable state is dominated by a single species, photoinhibition does not favour species coexistence. The model predictions are consistent with published competition experiments, and illustrate the complex effects of photoinhibition on community assembly.     

局域种群的Allee效应和集合种群的同步性

从包含Allee效应的局域种群出发,建立了耦合映像格子模型,即集合种群模型.通过分析和计算机模拟表明:(1)当局域种群受到Allee效应强度较大时,集合种群同步灭绝;(2)而当Allee效应强度相对较弱时,通过稳定局域种群动态(减少混沌)使得集合种群发生同步波动,而这种同步波动能够增加集合种群的灭绝风险;(3)斑块间的连接程度对集合种群同步波动的发生有很大的影响,适当的破碎化有利于集合种群的续存.全局迁移和Allee效应结合起来增加了集合种群同步波动的可能,从而增加集合种群的灭绝风险.这些结果对理解同步性的机理、利用同步机理来制定物种保护策略和害虫防治都有重要的意义.     

捕食者具有厌食性反应且食饵具有Allee效应的捕食系统

在Dubis动力系统的基础上,建立了具有Allee效应的捕食系统模型。对系统的稳定性进行了分析,受Allee效应的影响,食饵种群可能因为种群大小处于临界点以下而趋于灭绝。通过对系统进行模拟,结果表明:不受Allee效应的影响,系统的演化属于一种理想化的情形系统到达P(平衡)点的时间较不受Allee效应影响时系统到达P点的时间短,不利于生物的进化,而在Allee效应的影响下,系统的演化将达到一个平衡状态。由此,说明Allee效应为濒临灭绝物种的管理提供了重要的理论依据,对管理部门的决策有参考指导作用。     

Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka

Background

Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon.

Methods/Principal Findings

We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species'' range. Of these, 5 (5%) are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67%) and found that 17 of these (27%) are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions.

Conclusions/Significance

Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.     

How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations.