Global climate drives southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) population dynamics

Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series from the southwest Atlantic and the El Ni?o 4 region in the western Pacific were compared to an index of annual calving success of the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) breeding in Argentina. There was a strong relationship between right whale calving output and SST anomalies at South Georgia in the autumn of the previous year and also with mean El Ni?o 4 SST anomalies delayed by 6 years. These results extend similar observations from other krill predators and show clear linkages between global climate signals and the biological processes affecting whale population dynamics.     

Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems

Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmospheric teleconnections with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes. These SST anomalies are propagated via the Antarctic Circumpolar Current into the South Atlantic (on time scales of more than 1 year), where ENSO and Southern Annular Mode-related atmospheric processes have a direct influence on short (less than six months) time scales. We find that across the South Atlantic sector, these changes in SST, and related fluctuations in winter sea ice extent, affect the recruitment and dispersal of Antarctic krill. This oceanographically driven variation in krill population dynamics and abundance in turn affects the breeding success of seabird and marine mammal predators that depend on krill as food. Such propagating anomalies, mediated through physical and trophic interactions, are likely to be an important component of variation in ocean ecosystems and affect responses to longer term change. Population models derived on the basis of these oceanic fluctuations indicate that plausible rates of regional warming of 1^oC over the next 100 years could lead to more than a 95% reduction in the biomass and abundance of krill across the Scotia Sea by the end of the century.     

The Impact of Increased Food Availability on Reproduction in a Long-Distance Migratory Songbird: Implications for Environmental Change?

Many populations of migratory songbirds are declining or shifting in distribution. This is likely due to environmental changes that alter factors such as food availability that may have an impact on survival and/or breeding success. We tested the impact of experimentally supplemented food on the breeding success over three years of northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe), a species in decline over much of Europe. The number of offspring fledged over the season was higher for food-supplemented birds than for control birds. The mechanisms for this effect were that food supplementation advanced breeding date, which, together with increased resources, allowed further breeding attempts. While food supplementation did not increase the clutch size, hatching success or number of chicks fledged per breeding attempt, it did increase chick size in one year of the study. The increased breeding success was greater for males than females; males could attempt to rear simultaneous broods with multiple females as well as attempting second broods, whereas females could only increase their breeding effort via second broods. Multiple brooding is rare in the study population, but this study demonstrates the potential for changes in food availability to affect wheatear breeding productivity, primarily via phenotypic flexibility in the number of breeding attempts. Our results have implications for our understanding of how wheatears may respond to natural changes in food availability due to climate changes or changes in habitat management.     

Influence of Climate Change and Trophic Coupling across Four Trophic Levels in the Celtic Sea

Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect ‘bottom-up’ climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986–2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66±0.02°C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = −0.305±0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = −0.410±0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species–specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314±0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = −0.144±0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.     

Annual survival of adult Atlantic Puffins Fratercula arctica is positively correlated with Herring Clupea harengus availability

Atlantic Herring is a keystone species in several marine ecosystems, supporting intensive fisheries as well as many predators including seabirds. Biomass of this stock in eastern North America has declined considerably in recent years, potentially putting at risk populations of its predators. Although adult survival in seabirds is considered robust to moderate changes in food availability, it is also the life‐history component most critical to sustaining populations of long‐lived birds. To investigate the possibility that Atlantic Puffin survival has been affected by reduced abundance of its main prey, we analysed the encounter histories of 2999 Atlantic Puffins ringed on Machias Seal Island to estimate annual adult survival for the years 1999–2011 and assess trends in survival and the effects of several biological and environmental covariates. Features of Puffin biology and resighting procedures likely to introduce heterogeneity into our resighting probabilities were accounted for and models of survival were assessed using standard methods. We used the variance components procedure in Program MARK and survival estimates from a time‐varying model to estimate the process variance (biological variation in survival) accounted for by suspected covariates of survival. Two proxies of food availability each explained more than half of the variation in annual survival: fishery landings of Atlantic Herring (52%) and per cent (by mass) of 1‐group Herring in the diet of Puffin chicks (51%). In addition to these proxies, May sea‐surface temperature accounted for 37% of variance in survival, but winter values of North Atlantic Oscillation showed no effect. Of those parameters of Puffin biology examined, chick growth rate explained 19% of the process variance in annual survival; laying date, fledging condition and fledging date all explained no variance. A decline in fishery landings of Herring since the early 1990s, and a concurrent decline in adult Puffin survival, reinforces concern for the health of the population of Herring, a keystone forage fish in this region, and of the community of marine predators in the Gulf of Maine that rely on Herring for their survival and reproduction.     

KLEPTOPARASITISM OF SANDWICH TERNS STERNA SANDVICENSIS BY BLACK-HEADED GULLS LARUS RIDIBUNDUS

The parasitic behaviour of Black-headed Gulls in a mixed colony of terns and gulls at the Sands of Forvie on the northeast coast of Scotland is described in some detail. Food-stealing occurred with varying frequency throughout the breeding season. Less than 6% of the terns were attacked during incubation and when their chicks were a few days old, but up to 29% were attacked thereafter. At the same time the percentage of successful attacks rose from 1% or less to 6.5%.
Food items brought back to the ternery were predominantly sandeels, clupeids and gadoids. Only a small proportion of terns carrying fish shorter than 7 cm were attacked whether they were sandeels, clupeids or gadoids.
Robbing success was higher with clupeids and gadoids than with sandeels.
The effect of the Black-headed Gulls' kleptoparasitism on the Sandwich Terns' breeding success is thought to have been negligible during incubation and early chick-life, but might have influenced fledging weight and ultimately post-fledging survival.     

Trophic interactions under climate fluctuations: the Atlantic puffin as an example

Co-occurrence in food requirements of offspring and food availability is a key factor determining breeding success. Prey availability is typically dependent on environmental conditions that are different from those influencing the predator''s decision regarding whether or not to initiate breeding, and is not always optimal at the peak of reproduction requirements. We investigated this relationship to understand better what determines the fledging success of the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica). Colony data from Røst (northern Norway) covering a period of 27 years were analysed with parallel data on sea temperature and the size and abundance of the puffins'' main prey (the Norwegian spring-spawning herring, Clupea harengus). By fitting statistical models to the fledging success, we found that one effect of climate on this population of Atlantic puffins is indirect and mediated by sea temperature affecting the availability of first-year herring. The best model also demonstrates that the breeding success of the Røst puffins may be quantitatively predicted from the size of first-year herring and sea temperature.     

Do long-term changes in sea surface temperature at the breeding areas affect the breeding dates and reproduction performance of Mediterranean loggerhead turtles? Implications for climate change

Global climate change is likely to have an important influence on the phenology, behaviour and population dynamics of many species. We investigate climatic related changes in the breeding phenology of Mediterranean loggerhead marine turtles Caretta caretta over a 19 year period and the potential relationship between these changes and reproductive success and performance. We found that the studied population has experienced fluctuating sea surface temperatures (SST) with an increasing trend during the last century. With increasing spring SST there is a trend towards earlier nesting. However, there is no significant relationship between SST and nesting season, defined as the duration between the first recorded emergence and the last nest laid. Our analyses indicate that marine turtles display phenological changes, and thus maintain favorable thermal conditions at the nesting sites. Furthermore, increasing spring SST was correlated with decreasing clutch size and increasing hatching success that resulted in an apparent lack of correlation between SST and hatchling production. This apparent independence might be misleading since it only holds for a limited range of SST values. Thus, if we estimate the effect of climate change on loggerhead population growth as neutral, based on the apparent independence between SST and total number of hatchlings, we will be underestimating the population extinction risk.     

From plankton to top predators: bottom-up control of a marine food web across four trophic levels

1. Abundant mid-trophic pelagic fish often play a central role in marine ecosystems, both as links between zooplankton and top predators and as important fishery targets. In the North Sea, the lesser sandeel occupies this position, being the main prey of many bird, mammal and fish predators and the target of a major industrial fishery. However, since 2003, sandeel landings have decreased by > 50%, and many sandeel-dependent seabirds experienced breeding failures in 2004. 2. Despite the major economic implications, current understanding of the regulation of key constituents of this ecosystem is poor. Sandeel abundance may be regulated 'bottom-up' by food abundance, often thought to be under climatic control, or 'top-down' by natural or fishery predation. We tested predictions from these two hypotheses by combining unique long-term data sets (1973-2003) on seabird breeding productivity from the Isle of May, SE Scotland, and plankton and fish larvae from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We also tested whether seabird breeding productivity was more tightly linked to sandeel biomass or quality (size) of individual fish. 3. The biomass of larval sandeels increased two- to threefold over the study period and was positively associated with proxies of the abundance of their plankton prey. Breeding productivity of four seabirds bringing multiple prey items to their offspring was positively related to sandeel larval biomass with a 1-year lag, indicating dependence on 1-year-old fish, but in one species bringing individual fish it was strongly associated with the size of adult sandeels. 4. These links are consistent with bottom-up ecosystem regulation and, with evidence from previous studies, indicate how climate-driven changes in plankton communities can affect top predators and potentially human fisheries through the dynamics of key mid-trophic fish. However, the failing recruitment to adult sandeel stocks and the exceptionally low seabird breeding productivity in 2004 were not associated with low sandeel larval biomass in 2003, so other mechanisms (e.g. predation, lack of suitable food after metamorphosis) must have been important in this case. Understanding ecosystem regulation is extremely important for predicting the fate of keystone species, such as sandeels, and their predators.     

Relation between climatic factors,diet and reproductive parameters of Little Terns over a decade

We used 10 years of data on clutch size, egg size and diet, and 8 years of data on timing of laying on Little Terns (Sternula albifrons) breeding in Ria Formosa lagoon system, Algarve, Portugal to assess whether diet acts as an important intermediary between climatic conditions and breeding parameters. We used Generalized Linear Models to relate (1) the relative occurrence and size of the main prey species, sand smelts (Atherina spp.), with environmental variables, a large-scale climate variable, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and a local scale variable, the sea-surface temperature (SST), and (2) the respective effects of sand smelts relative occurrence, NAO index and SST on Little Tern breeding parameters. The diet of Little Terns was dominated by sand smelts, with a frequency occurrence of over 60% in all years. The winter SST (February) was negatively associated with the relative occurrence of sand smelts in the diet of Little Terns during the breeding season which, in turn, was positively associated with Little Tern clutch size. Our results suggest that negative NAO conditions in the Atlantic Ocean, often associated with rougher sea conditions (greater vertical mixing, stronger winds and lower SST) were related with earlier breeding, and lower SST in the surroundings of the colony during winter–spring favour the abundance of prey fish for Little Terns as well as their reproductive parameters. Climate patterns at both large and local scales are likely to change in the future, which may have important implications for estuarine seabirds in Southern Europe.     

Diet of Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) feeding chicks at two Irish colonies highlights the importance of clupeids

Capsule We examined regurgitates from Black-legged Kittiwakes during the early chick-rearing period over two breeding seasons at two colonies in Ireland where diet has not been studied previously. Clupeids were the dominant food source at both colonies, which contrasts with other studies throughout the British Isles that suggest Kittiwakes feed mainly on sandeels during this period. Our study is limited by sample size and restricted to the early breeding season, but suggests a link between reproductive success and dietary composition which should be investigated further.     

The effects of changes in food availability on the breeding ecology of great skuas Catharacta skua in Shetland

Great skuas on Foula, Shetland have responded to a decline in the availability of sandeels since the late 1970s by increasing the proportion of other items in their diets. This change is correlated with the annual recruitment of sandeels in Shetland waters. Since 1983 there has been a 10-fold increase in predation by great skuas upon other seabirds, as Furness & Hislop (1981) suggested might occur in response to a low availability of sandeels. Changes in diet have been accompanied by a 50% reduction in adult territorial attendance as adults increased their foraging effort, such that between 1987 and 1989 breeding adults were probably working as hard as they were able to. Despite this, breeding success was less than 40% in 1987 and less than 15% in 1988 and 1989. The major cause of breeding failure was predation of unguarded chicks by adults from neighbouring territories. The willingness of adults to expose their chicks to high predation risk is probably maintained because of a positive correlation between chick pre-fledging growth and post-fledging survival, which is expressed up to the age of two years and which will place a strong pressure upon adults to feed their chicks as well as possible. The high expenditure of effort by adults in 1987 and 1988 did not affect the weights of those birds incubating eggs in 1988 and 1989, but there was a slight (3%) decrease in egg size between the late 1970s and the late 1980s. Changes in the age structure of the breeding population and the absence in 1989 of 28% of adults colour-ringed during incubation in 1988 suggest an increase in the rate of egress since the 1970s. These changes probably represent an increase in the long-term costs of reproduction to adults at this colony.     

The influence of food supply on the breeding ecology of Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in Shetland

We measured the breeding performance, body condition, time budgets and foraging ranges of Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla at Sumburgh Head, Shetland, in two years of contrasting food availability. Kittiwakes in Shetland generally feed their young almost entirely on sandeels, and fisheries data indicated that stocks of sandeels in Shetland waters were at least ten times higher in 1991 than in 1990. Fledging success of Kittiwakes was nil in 1990 and 68% of eggs laid in 1991, although clutch-size and hatching success were no different between years. Post-hatching foraging trips in 1991 were of comparable duration to those recorded at other colonies in conditions of good food supply (2–3 h), while trips recorded during incubation or post-hatching in 1990 were approximately three times longer on average than at corresponding stages of the breeding season in 1991. Radio-tracking data indicated that adults generally stayed within 5 km of the colony in 1991 but flew more than 40 km from the colony on each trip in 1990. Eggs were apparently not left unattended in either year, despite the fact that this required adults to incubate for periods in excess of 44 h in 1990. The extent to which adults were able to increase trip durations, foraging ranges and incubation shift lengths between years, while maintaining hatching success, indicates the degree to which Kittiwakes are normally buffered against adverse feeding conditions during incubation. Reduced nest attendance and lower body-condition of adults post-hatching in 1990, in conjunction with complete post-hatching breeding failure, indicate that adults were beyond the limits of their buffering capacity during chick-rearing in 1990.     

Climate fluctuation effects on breeding of blue penguins (Eudyptula minor)

Abstract

El Niño and La Niña climate perturbations alter sea currents and food availability for seabirds in many areas of the world. This changes their breeding success and mortality. Blue penguin (Eudyptula minor) breeding success is dependent upon whether one or two clutches per season are laid, and the hatching and fledging success of these clutches. This study uses six years of data from five blue penguin breeding colonies, three from Taiaroa Head, Otago Peninsula and two from Oamaru, to examine whether annual variation in breeding success correlates with El Niño/La Niña perturbations. When La Niña conditions prevailed, penguins started breeding later, and there was a lower proportion of double breeders than in El Niño and normal years. The probability of a newly hatched chick surviving to fledging was also dependent on whether large‐scale climatic conditions prevailed, whereas hatching success and overall breeding success (number of fledged chicks per breeding pair) showed no correlation with climate perturbations.     

A study on the relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperature and Amazonian greenness

The growth of tropical rainforest in Amazon is critically vulnerable to the change in rainfall and radiation than in temperature, and that amount of rainfall and cloudiness in the northeast region of South American is strongly affected by the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). Results from recent model experiments for future climate projection have indicated a reduction of Amazonian greenness by a weakening of tropical vapor circulation system related with the change in SST. Therefore, the observational investigation of the relations between the Amazon greenness and Atlantic SST is fundamental to understand the response of Amazonian tropical forest to climate change. In this study, the effect of Atlantic SST on the spatial and temporal change of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Amazonian region is examined by using satellite remote sensing data for the period of 1981–2001. A strong correlation between NDVI and SST is found for certain regions in Amazon during the periods of 1980s and 1990s, respectively. In addition, strong correlations with NDVI lagging behind SST for two months and one year, respectively, are also identified from the interannual December-to-February (rain season) variations during 1981–2001. Despite these findings, the mechanisms behind the identified correlation remain unclear. Further analyses using observed precipitation and radiation data are required to understand the potential changes of Amazonian rainforest in the context of global warming.     

Regime shifts in the breeding of an Atlantic puffin population

Timing of breeding is a key factor determining the reproductive success in bird populations and known to be affected by climate fluctuations. We investigated the long‐term (1978–2002) relationship between climate and hatching date within a population of Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica at Røst in the Norwegian Sea. The timing of puffin breeding was found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAO). We isolated two temporal regimes, one where NAO had a significant effect on hatching date (1978–1986 and 1995–2002) and one where these variables were independent (1987–1994). Hatching date could be modelled using, in addition to NAO, hatching date and food abundance in the preceding breeding season (possibly proxies of parental effort). The models remained significant for regime 1 but not for regime 2. NAO differed between the two regimes suggesting that the shifts were induced by climate change, possibly via its effect on the availability of prey in the preceding year. The novelty of our study is the identification of temporal regimes in the effects of climate within one population.     

Linking sandeel consumption and the likelihood of starvation in harbour porpoises in the Scottish North Sea: could climate change mean more starving porpoises?

Sandeels are known to be negatively affected by climate change in a number of ways. This study investigated whether these changes are affecting the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), a species which consumes sandeels. Porpoise diet was examined in spring (March-May), a critical time of year for survival when sandeels are important prey, from 1993 to 2001 to provide baseline information on the proportion of sandeels consumed. When data from spring 2002 and 2003 were compared to these baseline data, the diet was found to be substantially different, with a significant and substantially smaller proportion of sandeels being consumed in March and May. There were also differences in the number of porpoises starving between the two time periods (33% in spring 2002 and 2003 died of starvation, but only 5% in the baseline period). This suggests that a lower proportion of sandeels in the diet of porpoises in spring increases the likelihood of starvation. Therefore, we suggest that the negative effects of climate change on sandeel availability may have serious negative effects on harbour porpoise populations in the North Sea by increasing the likelihood of starvation in spring.     

Changes in Northwest Atlantic Arctic and Subarctic conditions and the growth response of Atlantic salmon

There has been a systematic change in the weight at age of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northwest Atlantic that is related to climate variability. This relationship emerged from analyses of broad-scale measures of ocean surface thermal habitat, which show that expansion of the area bounding 4–8°C is associated with greater growth. To further elucidate the effect of the environment on salmon growth, time series of sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice coverage, chlorophyll concentration, net primary production and zooplankton abundance were examined temporally and spatially in relation to changes in the weight of salmon. SST and zooplankton data were extracted from in situ analyses, whereas sea ice and chlorophyll-based measures of productivity were collected with satellite sensors. Salmon growth was found to be unrelated to productivity at the base of the food chain but highly associated with thermal regime during winter and spring. Warming conditions during specific segments of the salmon life cycle have been associated with poor adult recruitment; yet, warming during others is beneficial to salmon growth and is assumed to increase reproductive output of spawning fish. Despite these positive influences, climate change will continue to erode the viability of salmon populations while the negative effects of warming on survivorship outweigh the benefits of any increase in reproductive output related to growth.     

Scale-dependent climate signals drive breeding phenology of three seabird species

Breeding at the right time is essential for animals in seasonal climates in order to ensure that the energy demands of reproduction, particularly the nutritional requirements of growing young, coincide with peak food availability. Global climate change is likely to cause shifts in the timing of peak food availability, and in order to adapt successfully to current and future climate change, animals need to be able to adjust the time at which they initiate breeding. Many animals use environmental cues available before the breeding season to predict the seasonal peak in food availability and adjust their phenology accordingly. We tested the hypothesis that regulation of breeding onset should reflect the scale at which organisms perceive their environment by comparing phenology of three seabird species at a North Sea colony. As predicted, the phenology of two dispersive species, black-legged kittiwake ( Rissa tridactyla ) and common guillemot ( Uria aalge ), correlated with a large-scale environmental cue (the North Atlantic Oscillation), whereas a resident species, European shag ( Phalacrocorax aristotelis ), was more affected by local conditions (sea surface temperature) around the colony. Annual mean breeding success was lower in late years for European shags, but not for the other two species. Since correlations among climate patterns at different scales are likely to change in the future, these findings have important implications for how migratory animals can respond to future climate change.     

Detrimental effects of recent ocean surface warming on growth condition of Atlantic salmon

Ocean climate impacts on survivorship and growth of Atlantic salmon are complex, but still poorly understood. Stock abundances have declined over the past three decades and 1992–2006 has seen widespread sea surface temperature (SST) warming of the NE Atlantic, including the foraging areas exploited by salmon of southern European origin. Salmon cease feeding on return migration, and here we express the final growth condition of year‐classes of one‐sea winter adults at, or just before, freshwater re‐entry as the predicted weight at standard length. Two independent 14‐year time series for a single river stock and for mixed, multiple stocks revealed almost identical temporal patterns in growth condition variation, and an overall trend decrease of 11–14% over the past decade. Growth condition has fallen as SST anomaly has risen, and for each year‐class the midwinter (January) SST anomalies they experienced at sea correlated negatively with their final condition on migratory return during the subsequent summer months. Stored lipids are crucial for survival and for the prespawning provisioning of eggs in freshwater, and we show that under‐weight individuals have disproportionately low reserves. The poorest condition fish (～30% under‐weight) returned with lipid stores reduced by ～80%. This study concurs with previous analyses of other North Atlantic top consumers (e.g. somatic condition of tuna, reproductive failure of seabirds) showing evidence of major, recent climate‐driven changes in the eastern North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem, and the likely importance of bottom‐up control processes. Because salmon abundances presently remain at historical lows, fecundity of recent year‐classes will have been increasingly compromised. Measures of year‐class growth condition should therefore be incorporated in the analysis and setting of numerical spawning escapements for threatened stocks, and conservation limits should be revised upwards conservatively during periods of excessive ocean climate warming.