Global terrestrial carbon storage and uncertainties in its temperature sensitivity examined with a simple model

The future of the land carbon sink is a significant uncertainty in global change projections. Here, key controls on global terrestrial carbon storage are examined using a simple model of vegetation and soil. Equilibrium solutions are derived as a function of atmospheric CO₂ and global temperature, these environmental variables are then linked in an idealized global change trajectory, and the lag between the dynamic and equilibrium solutions is derived for different linear rates of increase in atmospheric CO₂. Terrestrial carbon storage is departing significantly from equilibrium because CO₂ and temperature are increasing on a similar timescale to ecosystem change, and the lag is found to be proportional to the rate of forcing. Thus peak sizes of the land carbon sink, and any future land carbon source, are proportional to the rate of increase of CO₂. A switch from a land carbon sink to a source occurs at a higher CO₂ and temperature under more rapid forcing. The effects of parameter uncertainty in temperature sensitivities of photosynthesis, plant respiration and soil respiration, and structural uncertainty through the effect of fixing the ratio of plant respiration to photosynthesis are explored. In each case, the CO₂ fertilization effect on photosynthesis is constrained to reproduce the 1990 atmospheric CO₂ concentration within a closed global model. New literature compilations are presented for the temperature sensitivities of plant and soil respiration. A lower limit, Q₁₀=1.29, for soil respiration significantly increases future land carbon storage. An upper limit, Q₁₀=3.63, for soil respiration underpredicts the increase in carbon storage since the Last Glacial Maximum. Fixing the ratio of plant respiration to photosynthesis (R/P) at 0.5 generates the largest and most persistent land carbon sink, followed by the weakest land carbon source.     

Effects of 21st‐century climate,land use,and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO₂. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by ?188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of ?89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of ?9.4% (?432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from ?916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO₂ is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.     

Enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake in the Northern High Latitudes in the 21st century from the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project model projections

The ongoing and projected warming in the northern high latitudes (NHL; poleward of 60 °N) may lead to dramatic changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle. On the one hand, warming and increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration stimulate vegetation productivity, taking up CO₂. On the other hand, warming accelerates the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM), releasing carbon into the atmosphere. Here, the NHL terrestrial carbon storage is investigated based on 10 models from the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis suggests that the NHL will be a carbon sink of 0.3 ± 0.3 Pg C yr^?1 by 2100. The cumulative land organic carbon storage is modeled to increase by 38 ± 20 Pg C over 1901 levels, of which 17 ± 8 Pg C comes from vegetation (43%) and 21 ± 16 Pg C from the soil (8%). Both CO₂ fertilization and warming enhance vegetation growth in the NHL. Although the intense warming there enhances SOM decomposition, soil organic carbon (SOC) storage continues to increase in the 21st century. This is because higher vegetation productivity leads to more turnover (litterfall) into the soil, a process that has received relatively little attention. However, the projected growth rate of SOC begins to level off after 2060 when SOM decomposition accelerates at high temperature and then catches up with the increasing input from vegetation turnover. Such competing mechanisms may lead to a switch of the NHL SOC pool from a sink to a source after 2100 under more intense warming, but large uncertainty exists due to our incomplete understanding of processes such as the strength of the CO₂ fertilization effect, permafrost, and the role of soil moisture. Unlike the CO₂ fertilization effect that enhances vegetation productivity across the world, global warming increases the productivity at high latitudes but tends to reduce it in the tropics and mid‐latitudes. These effects are further enhanced as a result of positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks due to additional CO₂ and warming.     

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process‐based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO₂ fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO₂ fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post‐fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.     

Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations

Several lines of evidence point to an increase in the activity of the terrestrial biosphere over recent decades, impacting the global net land carbon sink (NLS) and its control on the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide (c_a). Global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP)—the rate of carbon fixation by photosynthesis—is estimated to have risen by (31 ± 5)% since 1900, but the relative contributions of different putative drivers to this increase are not well known. Here we identify the rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration as the dominant driver. We reconcile leaf‐level and global atmospheric constraints on trends in modeled biospheric activity to reveal a global CO₂ fertilization effect on photosynthesis of 30% since 1900, or 47% for a doubling of c_a above the pre‐industrial level. Our historic value is nearly twice as high as current estimates (17 ± 4)% that do not use the full range of available constraints. Consequently, under a future low‐emission scenario, we project a land carbon sink (174 PgC, 2006–2099) that is 57 PgC larger than if a lower CO₂ fertilization effect comparable with current estimates is assumed. These findings suggest a larger beneficial role of the land carbon sink in modulating future excess anthropogenic CO₂ consistent with the target of the Paris Agreement to stay below 2°C warming, and underscore the importance of preserving terrestrial carbon sinks.     

The high-latitude terrestrial carbon sink: a model analysis

A dynamic, global vegetation model, hybrid v4.1 ( Friend et al. 1997 ), was driven by transient climate output from the UK Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) with the IS92a scenario of increasing atmospheric CO₂ equivalent, sulphate aerosols and predicted patterns of atmospheric N deposition. Changes in areas of vegetation types and carbon storage in biomass and soils were predicted for areas north of 50°N from 1860 to 2100. Hybrid is a combined biogeochemical, biophysical and biogeographical model of natural, potential ecosystems. The effect of periodic boreal forest fires was assessed by adding a simple stochastic fire model. Hybrid represents plant physiological and soil processes regulating the carbon, water and N cycles and competition between individuals of parameterized generalized plant types. The latter were combined to represent tundra, temperate grassland, temperate/mixed forest and coniferous forest. The model simulated the current areas and estimated carbon stocks in the four vegetation types. It was predicted that land areas above 50°N (about 23% of the vegetated global land area) are currently accumulating about 0.4 PgC y^?1 (about 30% of the estimated global terrestrial sink) and that this sink could grow to 0.8–1.0 PgC y^?1 by the second half of the next century and persist undiminished until 2100. This sink was due mainly to an increase in forest productivity and biomass in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂, temperature and N deposition, and includes an estimate of the effect of boreal forest fire, which was estimated to diminish the sink approximately by the amount of carbon emitted to the atmosphere during fires. Averaged over the region, N deposition contributed about 18% to the sink by the 2080 s. As expected, climate change (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and saturation pressure deficit) and N deposition without increasing atmospheric CO₂ produced a carbon source. Forest areas expanded both south and north, halving the current tundra area by 2100. This expansion contributed about 30% to the sink by the 2090 s. Tundra areas which were not invaded by forest fluctuated from sink to source. It was concluded that a high latitude carbon sink exists at present and, even assuming little effect of N deposition, no forest expansion and continued boreal forest fires, the sink is likely to persist at its current level for a century.     

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Air-sea carbon dioxide equilibrium: Will it be possible to use seaweeds for carbon removal offsets?

To limit global warming below 2°C by 2100, we must drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and additionally remove ~100–900 Gt CO₂ from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) to compensate for unavoidable emissions. Seaweeds (marine macroalgae) naturally grow in coastal regions worldwide where they are crucial for primary production and carbon cycling. They are being considered as a biological method for CDR and for use in carbon trading schemes as offsets. To use seaweeds in carbon trading schemes requires verification that seaweed photosynthesis that fixes CO₂ into organic carbon results in CDR, along with the safe and secure storage of the carbon removed from the atmosphere for more than 100 years (sequestration). There is much ongoing research into the magnitude of seaweed carbon storage pools (e.g., as living biomass and as particulate and dissolved organic carbon in sediments and the deep ocean), but these pools do not equate to CDR unless the amount of CO₂ removed from the atmosphere as a result of seaweed primary production can be quantified and verified. The draw-down of atmospheric CO₂ into seawater is via air-sea CO₂ equilibrium, which operates on time scales of weeks to years depending upon the ecosystem considered. Here, we explain why quantifying air-sea CO₂ equilibrium and linking this process to seaweed carbon storage pools is the critical step needed to verify CDR by discrete seaweed beds and nearshore and open ocean aquaculture systems prior to their use in carbon trading.     

Soil respiration and the global carbon cycle

Soil respiration is the primary path by which CO₂fixed by land plants returns to the atmosphere. Estimated at approximately 75 × 10¹⁵gC/yr, this large natural flux is likely to increase due changes in the Earth's condition. The objective of this paper is to provide a brief scientific review for policymakers who are concerned that changes in soil respiration may contribute to the rise in CO₂in Earth's atmosphere. Rising concentrations of CO₂in the atmosphere will increase the flux of CO₂from soils, while simultaneously leaving a greater store of carbon in the soil. Traditional tillage cultivation and rising temperature increase the flux of CO₂from soils without increasing the stock of soil organic matter. Increasing deposition of nitrogen from the atmosphere may lead to the sequestration of carbon in vegetation and soils. The response of the land biosphere to simultaneous changes in all of these factors is unknown, but a large increase in the soil carbon pool seems unlikely to moderate the rise in atmospheric CO₂during the next century.     

Feedback of carbon and nitrogen cycles enhances carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere

The efforts to explain the ‘missing sink’ for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) have included in recent years the role of nitrogen as an important constraint for biospheric carbon fluxes. We used the Nitrogen Carbon Interaction Model (NCIM) to investigate patterns of carbon and nitrogen storage in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere as a consequence of a rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, in combination with varying levels of nitrogen availability. This model has separate but closely coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles with a focus on soil processes and soil–plant interactions, including an active compartment of soil microorganisms decomposing litter residues and competing with plants for available nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation is represented as a function of vegetation nitrogen demand. The model was validated against several global datasets of soil and vegetation carbon and nitrogen pools. Five model experiments were carried out for the modeling periods 1860–2002 and 2002–2100. In these experiments we varied the nitrogen availability using different combinations of biological nitrogen fixation, denitrification, leaching of soluble nitrogen compounds with constant or rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Oversupply with nitrogen, in an experiment with nitrogen fixation, but no nitrogen losses, together with constant atmospheric CO₂, led to some carbon sequestration in organismic pools, which was nearly compensated by losses of C from soil organic carbon pools. Rising atmospheric CO₂ always led to carbon sequestration in the biosphere. Considering an open nitrogen cycle including dynamic nitrogen fixation, and nitrogen losses from denitrification and leaching, the carbon sequestration in the biosphere is of a magnitude comparable to current observation based estimates of the ‘missing sink.’ A fertilization feedback between the carbon and nitrogen cycles occurred in this experiment, which was much stronger than the sum of separate influences of high nitrogen supply and rising atmospheric CO₂. The demand‐driven biological nitrogen fixation was mainly responsible for this result. For the modeling period 2002–2100, NCIM predicts continued carbon sequestration in the low range of previously published estimates, combined with a plausible rate of CO₂‐driven biological nitrogen fixation and substantial redistribution of nitrogen from soil to plant pools.     

Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

湖泊生态系统碳汇特征及其潜在碳中和价值研究

为了应对气候挑战,达成碳达峰远景目标,需要正确评估自然资源碳中和价值。湖泊作为具有独特生态、人文价值的地理单元,因碳循环强度高、碳排放总量大,是传统意义上的碳源。通过梳理近期相关研究成果,对比不同类型湖泊碳汇/源状况,湖泊生态系统以一系列碳汇特征表现出潜在的碳中和价值。强烈的光合作用可以使水体CO₂欠饱和,但由呼吸-光合作用、碳酸盐岩溶蚀作用带来的水体碱度、CO₂分压pCO₂提高也有利于湖泊碳汇增益。CO₂在水体中大量溶解,积极参与到湖泊碳循环,将pCO₂高于40 Pa作为判断湖泊为碳源的依据可能忽视了水体碱度上升带来的碳汇。在湖泊沉积物中有机碳的累积受到生态系统光合-呼吸作用的影响,当异养微生物群落能及时分解沉入湖底的衰亡组织、有机质时,沉积物中有机碳不会大量累积,当呼吸对光合的相对滞后,有机碳才会大量累积。湖泊生态系统的生产力决定了固碳能力,是湖泊发挥碳汇效益的重要“碳库”。由水生植物固定下的CO₂总量不如浮游植物,但在过程中发挥了“压舱石”般的稳定作...     

Spatial variability and temporal trends in water‐use efficiency of European forests

The increasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree‐ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX‐Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land–atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree‐ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south‐to‐north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil‐water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO₂ and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation–climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data.     

Including CO2 implications of land occupation in LCAs—method and example for livestock products

Purpose

Until recently, life cycle assessments (LCAs) have only addressed the direct greenhouse gas emissions along a process chain, but ignored the CO₂ emissions of land-use. However, for agricultural products, these emissions can be substantial. Here, we present a new methodology for including the implications of land occupation for CO₂ emissions to realistically reflect the consequences of consumers?? decisions.

Method

In principle, one can distinguish five different approaches of addressing the CO₂ consequences of land occupation: (1) assuming constant land cover, (2) land-use change related to additional production of the product under consideration, (3) historic land-use change, assuming historical relations between existing area and area expansion (4) land-use change related to less production of the product under consideration (??missed potential carbon sink?? of land occupation), and (5) an approach of integrating land conversion emissions and delayed uptake due to land occupation. Approach (4) is presented in this paper, using LCA data on land occupation, and carbon dynamics from the IMAGE model. Typically, if less production occurs, agricultural land will be abandoned, leading to a carbon sink when vegetation is regrowing. This carbon sink, which does not occur if the product would still be consumed, is thus attributed to the product as ??missed potential carbon sink??, to reflect the CO₂ implications of land occupations.

Results

We analyze the missed potential carbon sink by relating land occupation data from LCA studies to the potential carbon sink as calculated by an Integrated Global Assessment Model and its process-based, spatially explicit carbon cycle model. Thereby, we account for regional differences, heterogeneity in land-use, and different time horizons. Example calculations for several livestock products show that the CO₂ consequences of land occupation can be in the same order of magnitude as the other process related greenhouse gas emissions of the LCA, and depend largely on the production system. The highest CO₂ implications of land occupation are calculated for beef and lamb, with beef production in Brazil having a missed potential carbon sink more than twice as high as the other GHG emissions.

Conclusions

Given the significant contribution of land occupation to the total GHG balance of agricultural products, they need to be included in life cycle assessments in a realistic way. The new methodology presented here reflects the consequences of producing or not producing a certain commodity, and thereby it is suited to inform consumers fully about the consequences of their choices.     

Past and Future Drivers of an Unmanaged Carbon Sink in European Temperate Forest

Forests are major carbon stores on a global scale but there are significant uncertainties about changes in carbon flux through time and the relative contributions of drivers such as land use, climate and atmospheric CO₂. We used the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to test the relative influence of CO₂ increase, temperature increase and management on carbon storage in living biomass in an unmanaged European temperate deciduous forest. The model agreed well with living biomass reconstructed from forest surveys and maximum biomass values from other studies. High-resolution climate data from both historical records and general circulation models were used to force the model and was manipulated for some simulations to allow relative contributions of individual drivers to be assessed. Release from management was the major driver of carbon storage for most of the historical period, whereas CO₂ took over as the most important driver in the last 20 years. Relatively, little of the observed historical increase in carbon stocks was attributable to increased temperature. Future simulations using IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicated that carbon stocks could increase by as much as 3 kg C m^?2 by the end of the century, which is likely to be driven by CO₂ increase. This study suggests that unmanaged semi-natural woodland in Europe can be a major potential carbon sink that has been previously underestimated. Increasing the area of unmanaged forest would provide carbon sink services during recovery from timber extraction, while long-term protection would ensure carbon stocks are maintained.     

Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change Based on the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison

Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO₂ concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.     

Informing climate models with rapid chamber measurements of forest carbon uptake

Models predicting ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange under future climate change rely on relatively few real‐world tests of their assumptions and outputs. Here, we demonstrate a rapid and cost‐effective method to estimate CO₂ exchange from intact vegetation patches under varying atmospheric CO₂ concentrations_. We find that net ecosystem CO₂ uptake (NEE) in a boreal forest rose linearly by 4.7 ± 0.2% of the current ambient rate for every 10 ppm CO₂ increase, with no detectable influence of foliar biomass, season, or nitrogen (N) fertilization. The lack of any clear short‐term NEE response to fertilization in such an N‐limited system is inconsistent with the instantaneous downregulation of photosynthesis formalized in many global models. Incorporating an alternative mechanism with considerable empirical support – diversion of excess carbon to storage compounds – into an existing earth system model brings the model output into closer agreement with our field measurements. A global simulation incorporating this modified model reduces a long‐standing mismatch between the modeled and observed seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO₂. Wider application of this chamber approach would provide critical data needed to further improve modeled projections of biosphere–atmosphere CO₂ exchange in a changing climate.     

CO2 stabilization,climate change and the terrestrial carbon sink

A nonequilibrium, dynamic, global vegetation model, Hybrid v4.1, with a subdaily timestep, was driven by increasing CO₂ and transient climate output from the UK Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) with simulated daily and interannual variability. Three IPCC emission scenarios were used: (i) IS92a, giving 790 ppm CO₂ by 2100, (ii) CO₂ stabilization at 750 ppm by 2225, and (iii) CO₂ stabilization at 550 ppm by 2150. Land use and future N deposition were not included. In the IS92a scenario, boreal and tropical lands warmed 4.5 °C by 2100 with rainfall decreased in parts of the tropics, where temperatures increased over 6 °C in some years and vapour pressure deficits (VPD) doubled. Stabilization at 750 ppm CO₂ delayed these changes by about 100 years while stabilization at 550 ppm limited the rise in global land surface temperature to 2.5 °C and lessened the appearance of relatively hot, dry areas in the tropics. Present‐day global predictions were 645 PgC in vegetation, 1190 PgC in soils, a mean carbon residence time of 40 years, NPP 47 PgC y^?1 and NEP (the terrestrial sink) about 1 PgC y^?1, distributed at both high and tropical latitudes. With IS92a emissions, the high latitude sink increased to the year 2100, as forest NPP accelerated and forest vegetation carbon stocks increased. The tropics became a source of CO₂ as forest dieback occurred in relatively hot, dry areas in 2060–2080. High VPDs and temperatures reduced NPP in tropical forests, primarily by reducing stomatal conductance and increasing maintenance respiration. Global NEP peaked at 3–4 PgC y^?1 in 2020–2050 and then decreased abruptly to near zero by 2100 as the tropical source offset the high‐latitude sink. The pattern of change in NEP was similar with CO₂ stabilization at 750 ppm, but was delayed by about 100 years and with a less abrupt collapse in global NEP. CO₂ stabilization at 550 ppm prevented sustained tropical forest dieback and enabled recovery to occur in favourable years, while maintaining a similar time course of global NEP as occurred with 750 ppm stabilization. By lessening dieback, stabilization increased the fraction of carbon emissions taken up by the land. Comparable studies and other evidence are discussed: climate‐induced tropical forest dieback is considered a plausible risk of following an unmitigated emissions scenario.     

Reviewing the carbon cycle dynamics and carbon sequestration potential of Cyperus papyrus L. wetlands in tropical Africa

Tropical papyrus wetlands have the ability to assimilate and sequester significant amounts of carbon. However, the spatial extent, productivity and carbon sink strength associated with papyrus wetlands remains poorly characterised. The objective of this study was to collate information from peer-reviewed publications and relevant government and NGO reports to better understand carbon dynamics within papyrus dominated wetlands, and to assess the processes that regulate the magnitude of the carbon sink. Papyrus wetlands were shown to exhibit high rates of photosynthetic carbon dioxide (CO₂) assimilation of up to 40 μmol CO₂ m^?2 s^?1 where the incident photosynthetic photon flux density was ≥1,000 μmol m^?2 s^?1, high rates of net primary production ranging between 14 and 52 g DM m^?2 d^?1 and represent a significant carbon sink where up to 88 t C ha^?1 is stored in the aboveground and belowground components of the papyrus vegetation. Under flooded conditions significant detrital and peat deposits accumulate in excess of 1 m in depth, representing an additional carbon store in the order of 640 t C ha^?1. This study also highlighted the lack of empirical data on emissions of other radiatively important trace gases such as methane and nitrous oxide and also the vulnerability of these carbon sinks to both future changes in climate, in particular periods of hydrological drawdown, and anthropogenic land use change where the papyrus vegetation is removed in favour of subsistence agricultural cropping systems.     

An experimental study of floral display and fruit set in Chilopsis linearis (Bignoniaceae)

Summary Intact cores from the wet coastal arctic tundra at Barrow, Alaska, were used as microcosms in the measurement of CO₂ fluxes between peat, vegetation, and atmosphere under controlled conditions. Net ecosystem CO₂ uptake was almost twice as high at present summer temperatures (4° C) than at 8°. Lowering the water table from the soil surface to -5 cm also had a pronounced effect in decreasing net ecosystem carbon storage. Warming of the tundra climate could change this ecosystem from a sink for atmospheric CO₂ to a source.