A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland

Impact indicators are systems/organisms, the vitality of which alters in response to changes in environmental condition. The indicators assessed in this review fall within the impact category of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. Instrumental records have shown unequivocal changes in climatic conditions over the past 30 years at a global level but impact indicators allow these changes to be monitored at a finer resolution. Our main aim was to review sets of indicators of climate change currently used in various countries and to make recommendations for their use in the Irish environment. We review a preliminary set of climate change impact indicators in five sectors: agriculture; plant and animal distribution patterns; phenology; palaeoecology and human health. Currently, the most effective impact indicators of climate change have proved to be phenological observations of tree developmental stages. The strongest factor limiting the use of indicators is the lack of long-term data sets from which a climatic signal can be extracted.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Soil organic matter dynamics under soybean exposed to elevated [CO2]

It is unclear how changing atmospheric composition will influence the plant–soil interactions that determine soil organic matter (SOM) levels in fertile agricultural soils. Positive effects of CO₂ fertilization on plant productivity and residue returns should increase SOM stocks unless mineralization or biomass removal rates increase in proportion to offset gains. Our objectives were to quantify changes in SOM stocks and labile fractions in prime farmland supporting a conventionally managed corn–soybean system and the seasonal dynamics of labile C and N in soybean in plots exposed to elevated [CO₂] (550 ppm) under free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) conditions. Changes in SOM stocks including reduced C/N ratios and labile N stocks suggest that SOM declined slightly and became more decomposed in all plots after 3 years. Plant available N (>273 mg N kg⁻¹) and other nutrients (Bray P, 22–50 ppm; extractable K, 157–237 ppm; Ca, 2,378–2,730 ppm; Mg, 245–317 ppm) were in the high to medium range. Exposure to elevated [CO₂] failed to increase particulate organic matter C (POM-C) and increased POM-N concentrations slightly in the surface depth despite known increases (≈30%) in root biomass. This, and elevated CO₂ efflux rates indicate accelerated decay rates in fumigated plots (2001: elevated [CO₂]: 10.5 ± 1.2 μmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹ vs. ambient: 8.9 ± 1.0 μmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹). There were no treatment-based differences in the within-season dynamics of SOM. Soil POM-C and POM-N contents were slightly greater in the surface depth of elevated than ambient plots. Most studies attribute limited ability of fumigated soils to accumulate SOM to N limitation and/or limited plant response to CO₂ fertilization. In this study, SOM turnover appears to be accelerated under elevated [CO₂] even though soil moisture and nutrients are non-limiting and plant productivity is consistently increased. Accelerated SOM turnover rates may have long-term implications for soil’s productive potential and calls for deeper investigation into C and N dynamics in highly-productive row crop systems.     

Contribution of Monsoon Asia to the carbon budget of the biosphere,past and future

The High Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM), which has been developed by the group of the author, was used to investigate the carbon balance of the vegetation and the soil in the ecosystems of Monsoon Asia in comparison to the rest of the world. The HRBM is a global grid-based (0.5 degree resolution) model with a monthly time step. It includes modules for natural vegetation, land use, vegetation fires, vegetation composition. A historical carbon budget was calculated for the period 1860–1978 and, on a global scale, validated using atmospheric CO₂ data. Based on the per-country development of the population and their requirements, different reasonable scenarios were used to investigate the potential impacts of land use and deforestation in the period 1990–2050. The HRBM calculates considerable contributions of Monsoon Asia to the global CO₂ emissions due to land use changes in the past. Between 1860 and 1978, about 1/4 of the global releases from land use changes came from South Asian and Southeast Asian biota. The future contributions in the period 1990–2050 depend on the assumed development of the agricultural methods. If the intensity of agriculture and the agricultural productivity will stay the same as in the 1980s, there will be a strong need to increase agricultural areas, and thus deforestation will dominate. If there will be a change over to intensive methods of agricultural production, the presently used areas might be sufficient to provide resources to the growing population.     

兴安落叶松林碳平衡和全球变化影响研究

利用CENTURY模型模拟兴安落叶松林的C循环并探讨全球变化对其C循环的影响,结果表明,兴安落叶松林是一个C汇,年净吸收C2.65t.hm^-2,气候变化和大气CO2浓度增加将对北方森林的生长有利,使其净吸收C的能力增强,温度上升2℃时,兴安落叶松林的植物总生物量和生产力均增加,而土壤C含量降低,降水减少20％比降水增加20％时其植物总生物量,生产力和土壤C含量变化的幅度大,说明温度是大兴安岭地区森林生长的主要限制因子。     

Implications of increased carbon dioxide levels for carbon input and turnover in soils

The complexity of the plant-soil system in its interaction with the changing climate is discussed. It is shown that processes at the level of organic matter inputs into the soil and the fluxes and pools involved in the global cycle are not known in sufficient detail to allow an estimation of the future quantitative shifts. Even the direction in which the level of stored carbon in the soil organic matter pool will develop is not clear. The importance of the nitrogen cycle, which is intimately coupled to the carbon cycle through the turnover of soil organic matter is underlined. In its turn, the mineralisation of soil organic matter takes place at a rate which is highly dependent on the nature of inputs and the availability of mineral nutrients.Aspects of shifts in temperature, changes in cultivation practices (reduced tillage) and unintended spreading of inputs in chemical N-fertilizers are of great importance at a regional and global scale.The complexity of the interactions in the process of mineralisation do require further studies to clarify the point whether a substantial and durable additional storage of carbon in soil organic matter is likely, or that shifts in temperature will cause an overriding acceleration of the mineralisation, and trigger a corresponding net release of carbon.     

Is carbon within the global terrestrial biosphere becoming more oxidized? Implications for trends in atmospheric O2

Measurements of atmospheric O₂ and CO₂ concentrations serve as a widely used means to partition global land and ocean carbon sinks. Interpretation of these measurements has assumed that the terrestrial biosphere contributes to changing O₂ levels by either expanding or contracting in size, and thus serving as either a carbon sink or source (and conversely as either an oxygen source or sink). Here, we show how changes in atmospheric O₂ can also occur if carbon within the terrestrial biosphere becomes more reduced or more oxidized, even with a constant carbon pool. At a global scale, we hypothesize that increasing levels of disturbance within many biomes has favored plant functional types with lower oxidative ratios and that this has caused carbon within the terrestrial biosphere to become increasingly more oxidized over a period of decades. Accounting for this mechanism in the global atmospheric O₂ budget may require a small increase in the size of the land carbon sink. In a scenario based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach model, a cumulative decrease in the oxidative ratio of net primary production (NPP) (moles of O₂ produced per mole of CO₂ fixed in NPP) by 0.01 over a period of 100 years would create an O₂ disequilibrium of 0.0017 and require an increased land carbon sink of 0.1 Pg C yr⁻¹ to balance global atmospheric O₂ and CO₂ budgets. At present, however, it is challenging to directly measure the oxidative ratio of terrestrial ecosystem exchange and even more difficult to detect a disequilibrium caused by a changing oxidative ratio of NPP. Information on plant and soil chemical composition complement gas exchange approaches for measuring the oxidative ratio, particularly for understanding how this quantity may respond to various global change processes over annual to decadal timescales.     

National and European perspectives on climate change sensitivity of the habitats directive characteristic plant species

The main goal of the Habitats Directive, a key document for European conservation, is to maintain a ‘favourable’ conservation status of selected species and habitats. In the face of near-future climatic change this goal may become difficult to achieve. Here, we evaluate the sensitivity to climate change of 84 plant species that characterise the Danish habitat types included in the Habitats Directive. A fuzzy bioclimatic envelope model, linking European and Northwest African species’ distribution data with climate, was used to predict climatically suitable areas for these species in year 2100 under two-climate change scenarios. Climate sensitivity was evaluated at both Danish and European scales to provide an explicit European perspective on the impacts predicted for Denmark. In all 69–99% of the species were predicted to become negatively affected by climate change at either scale. Application of international Red List criteria showed that 43–55% and 17–69% would become vulnerable in Denmark and Europe, respectively. Northwest African atlas data were used to improve the ecological accuracy of the future predictions. For comparison, using only European data added 0–7% to these numbers. No species were predicted to become extinct in Europe, but 4–7% could be lost from Denmark. Some species were predicted to become positively affected in Denmark, but negatively affected in Europe. In addition to nationally endangered species, this group would be an important focus for a Danish conservation strategy. A geographically differentiated Danish conservation strategy is suggested as the eastern part of Denmark was predicted to be more negatively affected than the western part. No differences in the sensitivity of the Habitats Directive habitats were found. We conclude that the conservation strategy of the Habitats Directive needs to integrate the expected shifts in species’ distributions due to climate change.     

Climate change, conservation and management: an assessment of the peer-reviewed scientific journal literature

Recent reviews of the conservation literature indicate that significant biases exist in the published literature regarding the regions, ecosystems and species that have been examined by researchers. Despite the global threat of climatic change, similar biases may be occurring within the sub-discipline of climate-change ecology. Here we hope to foster critical thought and discussion by considering the directions taken by conservation researchers when addressing climate change. To form a quantitative basis for our perspective, we assessed 248 papers from the climate change literature that considered the conservation management of biodiversity and ecosystems. We found that roughly half of the studies considered climate change in isolation from other threatening processes. We also found that the majority of surveyed scientific publications were conducted in the temperate forests of Europe and North America. Regions such as Latin America that are rich in biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climate change were not well represented. We caution that such biases in research effort may be distracting our attention away from vulnerable regions, ecosystems and species. Specifically we suggest that the under-representation of research from regions low in adaptive capacity and rich in biodiversity requires international collaboration by those experienced in climate-change research, with researchers from less wealthy nations who are familiar with local issues, ecosystems and species. Furthermore, we caution that the propensity of ecologists to work in essentially unmodified ecosystems may fundamentally hamper our ability to make useful recommendations in a world that is experiencing significant global change.     

Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: a comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP)

Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO₂ at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO₂ is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO₂. In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO₂ from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO₂ causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO₂ and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO₂ for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO₂ for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO₂ is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO₂ is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which influences NPP. In TEM, the NPP response to doubled CO₂ is controlled by increased carboxylation which is modified by canopy conductance and the degree to which nitrogen constraints cause down-regulation of photosynthesis. The implementation of these different mechanisms has consequences for the spatial pattern of NPP responses, and represents, in part, conceptual uncertainty about controls over NPP responses. Progress in reducing these uncertainties requires research focused at the ecosystem level to understand how interactions between the carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles influence the response of NPP to elevated atmospheric CO₂. Received: 13 December 1996 / Accepted: 20 November 1997     

Differing effects of thermal stress on coral fertilization and early embryogenesis in four Indo Pacific species

Coral reefs are expected to be severely impacted by rising seawater temperatures associated with climate change. The fertilization and early embryogenesis of four reef-building coral species representing three Indo-Pacific families were examined in a series of laboratory experiments where temperatures were increased up to 5–6°C at ambient. High levels of fertilization and normal embryogenesis were observed for Favites abdita, Favites chinensis and Mycedium elephantotus at temperatures to 32°C (+5°C) and embryos developed normally until the 5th cell cleavage. Acropora millepora was the only species to be affected by higher temperatures, exhibiting significantly reduced fertilization and a higher frequency of embryonic abnormalities at 32°C (+4°C), and fertilization ceased altogether at 34°C (+6°C). Early cell cleavage rates increased with temperature up to 32°C for all species.     

Microbial responses to a changing environment: implications for the future functioning of terrestrial ecosystems

In this review, we present a conceptual model which links plant communities and saprotrophic microbial communities through the reciprocal exchange of growth-limiting resources. We discuss the numerous ways human-induced environmental change has directly and indirectly impacted this relationship, and review microbial responses that have occurred to date. We argue that compositional shifts in saprotrophic microbial communities underlie functional responses to environmental change that have ecosystem-level implications. Drawing on a long-term, large-scale, field experiment, we illustrate how and why chronic atmospheric N deposition can alter saprotrophic communities in the soil of a wide-spread sugar maple (Acer saccharum) ecosystem in northeastern North America, resulting in the slowing of plant litter decay, the rapid accumulation of soil organic matter, and the accelerated production and loss of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Compositional shifts in soil microbial communities, mediated by ecological interactions among soil saprotrophs, appear to lie at the biogeochemical heart of ecosystem response to environmental change.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.     

Land use change and the global carbon cycle: the role of tropical soils

Millions of hectares of tropical forest are cleared annually for agriculture, pasture, shifting cultivation and timber. One result of these changes in land use is the release of CO₂ from the cleared vegetation and soils. Although there is uncertainty as to the size of this release, it appears to be a major source of atmospheric CO₂, second only to the release from the combustion of fossil fuels. This study estimates the release of CO₂ from tropical soils using a computer model that simulates land use change in the tropics and data on (1) the carbon content of forest soils before clearing; (2) the changes in the carbon content under the various types of land use; and (3) the area of forest converted to each use. It appears that the clearing and use of tropical soils affects their carbon content to a depth of about 40 cm. Soils of tropical closed forests contain approximately 6.7 kg C · m^-2; soils of tropical open forests contain approximately 5.2 kg C · m^-2 to this depth. The cultivation of tropical soils reduces their carbon content by 40% 5 yr after clearing; the use of these soils for pasture reduces it by about 20%. Logging in tropical forests appears to have little effect on soil carbon. The carbon content of soils used by shifting cultivators returns to the level found under primary forest about 35 yr after abandonment. The estimated net release of carbon from tropical soils due to land use change was 0.11–0.26 × 10¹⁵ g in 1980.     

Feedback of carbon and nitrogen cycles enhances carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere

The efforts to explain the ‘missing sink’ for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) have included in recent years the role of nitrogen as an important constraint for biospheric carbon fluxes. We used the Nitrogen Carbon Interaction Model (NCIM) to investigate patterns of carbon and nitrogen storage in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere as a consequence of a rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, in combination with varying levels of nitrogen availability. This model has separate but closely coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles with a focus on soil processes and soil–plant interactions, including an active compartment of soil microorganisms decomposing litter residues and competing with plants for available nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation is represented as a function of vegetation nitrogen demand. The model was validated against several global datasets of soil and vegetation carbon and nitrogen pools. Five model experiments were carried out for the modeling periods 1860–2002 and 2002–2100. In these experiments we varied the nitrogen availability using different combinations of biological nitrogen fixation, denitrification, leaching of soluble nitrogen compounds with constant or rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Oversupply with nitrogen, in an experiment with nitrogen fixation, but no nitrogen losses, together with constant atmospheric CO₂, led to some carbon sequestration in organismic pools, which was nearly compensated by losses of C from soil organic carbon pools. Rising atmospheric CO₂ always led to carbon sequestration in the biosphere. Considering an open nitrogen cycle including dynamic nitrogen fixation, and nitrogen losses from denitrification and leaching, the carbon sequestration in the biosphere is of a magnitude comparable to current observation based estimates of the ‘missing sink.’ A fertilization feedback between the carbon and nitrogen cycles occurred in this experiment, which was much stronger than the sum of separate influences of high nitrogen supply and rising atmospheric CO₂. The demand‐driven biological nitrogen fixation was mainly responsible for this result. For the modeling period 2002–2100, NCIM predicts continued carbon sequestration in the low range of previously published estimates, combined with a plausible rate of CO₂‐driven biological nitrogen fixation and substantial redistribution of nitrogen from soil to plant pools.     

Small-scale plant species distribution in snowbeds and its sensitivity to climate change

Alpine snowbeds are characterized by a long-lasting snow cover and low soil temperature during the growing season. Both these key abiotic factors controlling plant life in snowbeds are sensitive to anthropogenic climate change and will alter the environmental conditions in snowbeds to a considerable extent until the end of this century. In order to name winners and losers of climate change among the plant species inhabiting snowbeds, we analyzed the small-scale species distribution along the snowmelt and soil temperature gradients within alpine snowbeds in the Swiss Alps. The results show that the date of snowmelt and soil temperature were relevant abiotic factors for small-scale vegetation patterns within alpine snowbed communities. Species richness in snowbeds was reduced to about 50% along the environmental gradients towards later snowmelt date or lower daily maximum temperature. Furthermore, the occurrence pattern of the species along the snowmelt gradient allowed the establishment of five species categories with different predictions of their distribution in a warmer world. The dominants increased their relative cover with later snowmelt date and will, therefore, lose abundance due to climate change, but resist complete disappearance from the snowbeds. The indifferents and the transients increased in species number and relative cover with higher temperature and will profit from climate warming. The snowbed specialists will be the most suffering species due to the loss of their habitats as a consequence of earlier snowmelt dates in the future and will be replaced by the avoiders of late-snowmelt sites. These forthcoming profiteers will take advantage from an increasing number of suitable habitats due to an earlier start of the growing season and increased temperature. Therefore, the characteristic snowbed vegetation will change to a vegetation unit dominated by alpine grassland species. The study highlights the vulnerability of the established snowbed vegetation to climate change and requires further studies particularly about the role of biotic interactions in the predicted invasion and replacement process.     

Temperature-related mortality in France, a comparison between regions with different climates from the perspective of global warming

This paper aims to explain the results of an observational population study that was carried out between 1991 and 1995 in six regions (departments) in France. The study was to assess the relationship between temperature and mortality in a few areas of France that offer widely varying climatic conditions and lifestyles, to determine their thermal optimum, defined as a 3 degrees C temperature band with the lowest mortality rate in each area, and then to compare the mortality rates from this baseline band with temperatures above and below the baseline. The study period was selected because it did not include extreme cold or hot events such as a heatwave. Data on daily deaths from each department were first used to examine the entire population and then to examine men, women, various age groups and various causes of death (respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, other disease of the circulatory system, and all other causes excluding violent deaths). Mean temperatures were provided by the National Weather Service. The results depicted an asymmetrical V- or U-shaped relationship between mortality and temperature, with a thermal optimum lower for the elderly, and generally lower for women than for men except in Paris. The relationship was also different depending on the cause of death. In all cases, more evidence was collected showing that cold weather was more deadly than hot weather, and it would now be interesting to enlarge the study to include years with cold spells and heatwaves. Furthermore, the results obtained could be of great use in estimating weather-related mortality as a consequence of future climate-change scenarios.     

Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume

The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa becomes locally sensitive to precessional forcing, resulting in rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions. These periods of extreme climate variability may have provided a catalyst for evolutionary change and driven key speciation and dispersal events amongst mammals and hominins in Africa. In particular, hominin species seem to differentially originate and go extinct during periods of extreme climate variability. Results presented in this volume may represent the basis of a new theory of early human evolution in Africa.     

Effect of temperature on humus respiration rate and nitrogen mineralization: Implications for global climate change

Respiration and nitrogen mineralization rates of humus samples from 7 Scots pine stands located along a climatic transect across the European continent from the Pyrenees (42°40) to northern Sweden (66°08) were measured for 14 weeks under laboratory conditions at temperatures from 5 °C to 25 °C. The average Q₁₀ values for the respiration rate ranged from about 1.0 at the highest temperature to more than 5 at 10 °C to 15 °C in the northernmost samples. In samples from more northern sites, respiration rates remained approximately constant during the whole incubation period; in the southern end of the transect, rates decreased over time. Respiration rate was positively correlated with incubation temperature, soil pH and CN ratio, and negatively with soil total N. Regressions using all these variables explained approximately 71% of the total variability in the respiration rate. There was no clear relation between the nitrogen mineralization rate and incubation temperature. Below 15 °C the N-mineralization rate did not respond to increasing temperature; at higher temperatures, significant increases were found for samples from some sites. A regression model including incubation temperature, pH, N_tot and CN explained 73% of the total variability in N mineralization. The estimated increase in annual soil respiration rates due to predicted global warming at the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere ranged from approximately 0.07×10¹⁵ to 0.13×10¹⁵ g CO₂ at 2 °C and 4 °C temperature increase scenarios, respectively. Both values are greater than the current annual net carbon storage in northern forests, suggesting a switch of these ecosystems from net sinks to net sources of carbon with global warming.