Collection and validation of data in the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority mortality study.

The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority mortality study investigated the relation between mortality and recorded exposure to ionising radiation among employees working at the authority''s seven establishments between 1946 and 1979. This report examines the design of the study and methods of data collection and validation. The completeness of the study population was deemed to be unsatisfactory at two establishments, where records of employment before 1965 had been destroyed. Assessment of the magnitude of the deficit led to the conclusion that the data from these establishments were too incomplete for inclusion in the mortality analysis. At the other establishments validation showed that the data collected were accurate and unbiased. Certain characteristics of the 39 546 employees included in the mortality analysis were identified which were relevant in interpreting the findings.     

Effect of neurokinin-1 receptor antagonists on serotoninergic, noradrenergic and hippocampal neurons: comparison with antidepressant drugs

Neurokinin-1 (NK1) receptor antagonists have been reported to possess antidepressant and anxiolytic properties in controlled trials. Since antidepressant and anxiolytic drugs act mainly by enhancing serotonin (5-HT) and norepinephrine (NE) neurotransmission in forebrain areas, the main focus of the present review is to critically examine the electrophysiological effects of NK1 receptor antagonists on serotoninergic and noradrenergic neurons, and then hippocampal neurons. It is concluded that NK1 antagonists increase the firing and burst activity of 5-HT neurons, increase burst activity of NE neurons, and modulate postsynaptic transmission at the hippocampus level. Further research is needed in order to develop more selective ligands for the human NK1 receptor and to gain better knowledge of required brain penetration and optimal pharmacodynamic conditions for their use in patients.     

Increasing antituberculosis drug resistance in the United Kingdom: analysis of national surveillance data

Objective To identify recent trends in, and factors associated with, resistance to antituberculosis drugs in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.Design Cohort of tuberculosis cases reported to the enhanced tuberculosis surveillance system matched to data on drug susceptibility and national strain typing data.Setting England, Wales, and Northern Ireland 1998-2005.Main outcome measures Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios for drug resistance and associated factors. Proportion of multidrug resistant tuberculosis cases clustered.Results 28 620 culture confirmed cases were available for analysis. The proportion of cases resistant to isoniazid increased from 5% to 7%. Rifampicin resistance increased from 1.0% to 1.2% and multidrug resistance from 0.8% to 0.9%. Ethambutol and pyrazinamide resistance remained stable at around 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. Regression analyses showed a significant increase in isoniazid resistance outside London (odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07, a year, associated with changes in age (0.98, 0.98 to 0.99, a year), place of birth (1.49, 1.16 to 1.92), and ethnicity (P<0.05). In London, the rise (1.05, 1.02 to 1.08, a year) was related mainly to an ongoing outbreak. Increases in rifampicin resistance (1.06, 1.01 to 1.11, a year) and multidrug resistance (1.06, 1.00 to 1.12, a year) were small. A fifth of patients with multidrug resistant tuberculosis in 2004-5 had indistinguishable strain types, and one case was identified as extensively drug resistant.Conclusions The rise in isoniazid resistance reflects increasing numbers of patients from sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent, who might have acquired resistance abroad, and inadequate control of transmission in London. The observed increases highlight the need for early case detection, rapid testing of susceptibility to drugs, and improved treatment completion.     

Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom: analysis of epidemiological surveillance data for 1970-96.

OBJECTIVE: To identify changes in the occurrence of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease that might be related to the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. DESIGN: Epidemiological surveillance of the United Kingdom population for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease based on (a) referral of suspected cases by neurologists, neuropathologists, and neurophysiologists and (b) death certificates. SETTING: England and Wales during 1970-84, and whole of the United Kingdom during 1985-96. SUBJECTS: All 662 patients identified as sporadic cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age distribution of patients, age specific time trends of disease, occupational exposure to cattle, potential exposure to causative agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. RESULTS: During 1970-96 there was an increase in the number of sporadic cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease recorded yearly in England and Wales. The greatest increase was among people aged over 70. There was a statistically significant excess of cases among dairy farm workers and their spouses and among people at increased risk of contact with live cattle infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy. During 1994-6 there were six deaths from sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom in patients aged under 30. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the incidence of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and the high incidence in dairy farmers in the United Kingdom may be unrelated to bovine spongiform encephalopathy. The most striking change in the pattern of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom after the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy is provided by the incidence in a group of exceptionally young patients with a consistent and unusual neuropathological profile. The outcome of mouse transmission studies and the future incidence of the disease in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, will be important in judging whether the agent causing bovine spongiform encephalopathy has infected humans.     

On the state of the public ill health: premature mortality in the United Kingdom and Europe.

Recently published data on mortality in the European Economic Community and Scandinavia convincingly showed that mortality among men and women aged 45-64 was considerably higher in the United Kingdom than elsewhere. This applied to deaths due to circulatory and respiratory disease, cancer, and all causes. For example, in 1980 in Scotland twice as many, or more, women aged 55-64 per 100 000 died of heart disease than in Belgium, Denmark, France, Greece, West Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Reductions in mortality from all causes during 1950-80 in the United Kingdom did not match those in other countries, such as Finland and France. Whether the public in the United Kingdom knows about its relatively poor mortality state is doubtful. To secure improved funding of appropriate preventive and treatment services directed at reducing premature mortality, public awareness should be raised urgently so that politicians and political parties will respond quickly in a way that the problem demands.     

Incidence of AIDS and excess of mortality associated with HIV in haemophiliacs in the United Kingdom: report on behalf of the directors of haemophilia centres in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE--To estimate the cumulative incidence of AIDS by time since seroconversion in haemophiliacs positive for HIV and to examine the evidence for excess mortality associated with HIV in those who had not yet been diagnosed as having AIDS. DESIGN--Analysis of data from ongoing national surveys. SETTING--Haemophilia centres in the United Kingdom. PATIENTS--A total of 1201 men with haemophilia who had lived in the United Kingdom during 1980-7 and were positive for HIV. INTERVENTION--None. END POINTS--Diagnosis of AIDS; death in those not diagnosed as having AIDS. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Estimation of cumulative incidence of AIDS and number of excess deaths in seropositive patients not diagnosed with AIDS. Median follow up after seroconversion was 5 years 2 months. Eight five patients developed AIDS. Cumulative incidence of AIDS five years after seroconversion was 4% among patients aged less than 25 at first test positive for HIV, 6% among those aged 25-44, and 19% among those aged greater than or equal to 45. There was little evidence that type or severity of haemophilia or type of factor VIII or IX that had caused HIV infection affected the rate of progression to AIDS. Mortality was increased among those who had not been diagnosed as having AIDS, especially among those with "AIDS related complex." Thirteen deaths were observed among 36 patients diagnosed as having AIDS related complex against 0.65 expected, and 34 deaths in 1080 other patients against 22.77 expected; both calculations were based on mortality rates observed in haemophiliacs in the United Kingdom in the late 1970s. CONCLUSIONS--Rate of progression to AIDS depended strongly on age. There is a substantial burden of fatal disease among patients positive for HIV who have not been formally diagnosed as having AIDS.     

Market penetration of new drugs in one United Kingdom region: implications for general practitioners and administrators.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the use of new drugs in one United Kingdom region. DESIGN--Examination of data on prescribing of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, new broad spectrum antibiotics, and H2 receptor antagonists. Calculation of number of defined daily doses prescribed each month. SETTING--All general practices in Northern Ireland. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Drug use index and market share of each drug. RESULTS--During 1988-91 prescribing of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors increased by 126%, of H2 receptor antagonists by 46%, and of new antibiotics by 207%. The first drug on the market usually retained the largest market share. Use of oral antibiotics increased threefold irrespective of the reporting policy of the general practitioners'' local laboratory. CONCLUSIONS--The increase in prescribing of these drugs seems to be greater than can be accounted for by an increase in patients with specific indications for these drugs. This suggests that the profession has not instituted effective checks to ensure that the legitimate promotion of new products does not lead to inappropriate and wasteful use.     

Inequality in income and mortality in the United States: analysis of mortality and potential pathways.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the relation between health outcomes and the equality with which income is distributed in the United States. DESIGN--The degree of income inequality, defined as the percentage of total household income received by the less well off 50% of households, and changes in income inequality were calculated for the 50 states in 1980 and 1990. These measures were then examined in relation to all cause mortality adjusted for age for each state, age specific deaths, changes in mortalities, and other health outcomes and potential pathways for 1980, 1990, and 1989-91. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Age adjusted mortality from all causes. RESULTS--There was a significant correlation (r = -0.62 [corrected], P < 0.001) between the percentage of total household income received by the less well off 50% in each state and all cause mortality, unaffected by adjustment for state median incomes. Income inequality was also significantly associated with age specific mortalities and rates of low birth weight, homicide, violent crime, work disability, expenditures on medical care and police protection, smoking, and sedentary activity. Rates of unemployment, imprisonment, recipients of income assistance and food stamps, lack of medical insurance, and educational outcomes were also worse as income inequality increased. Income inequality was also associated with mortality trends, and there was a suggestion of an impact of inequality trends on mortality trends. CONCLUSION--Variations between states in the inequality of the distribution of income are significantly associated with variations between states in a large number of health outcomes and social indicators and with mortality trends. These differences parallel relative investments in human and social capital. Economic policies that influence income and wealth inequality may have an important impact on the health of countries.     

Cost effectiveness analysis of antenatal HIV screening in United Kingdom

ObjectiveTo assess the cost effectiveness of universal antenatal HIV screening compared with selective screening in the United Kingdom.DesignIncremental cost effectiveness analysis relating additional costs of screening to life years gained. Maternal and paediatric costs and life years were combined.SettingUnited Kingdom.ResultsOn base case assumptions, a new diagnosis of a pregnant woman with HIV results in a gain of 6.392 life years and additional expenditure of £14 833. If decision makers are prepared to pay up to £10 000 for an additional life year, this would imply a net benefit of £49 090 (range £12 300-£59 000), which would be available to detect each additional infected woman in an antenatal screening programme. In London, universal antenatal screening would be cost effective compared with a selective screening under any reasonable assumptions about screening costs. Outside London, universal screening with uptake above 90% would be cost effective with a £0.60 HIV antibody test cost and up to 3.5 minutes for pretest discussion. Cost effectiveness of universal testing is lower if selective testing can achieve high uptake among those at higher risk. A universal strategy with only 50% uptake may not be less cost effective in low prevalence districts and may cost more and be less effective than a well run selective strategy.ConclusionsUniversal screening with pretest discussion should be adopted throughout the United Kingdom as part of routine antenatal care as long as test costs can be kept low and uptake high.

Key messages

• In 1997 only 13% of undiagnosed HIV infection in pregnant women was picked up on antenatal testing, resulting in many preventable paediatric infections
• Assuming NHS willingness to pay £10 000 per life year gained, universal testing would be much more cost effective than selective testing throughout London on any reasonable assumptions on costs, prevalence, and uptake of testing
• Outside London, universal testing would also be cost effective, even allowing 2-4 minutes for pretest discussion, provided that test costs were no more than £0.60 and uptake exceeded 90%
• Low cost tests could be achieved by pooling antenatal sera or centralisation of testing
• Universal testing with uptake of 50% may be less cost effective than a well run selective programme

     

Clustering of physical health multimorbidity in people with severe mental illness: An accumulated prevalence analysis of United Kingdom primary care data

BackgroundPeople with severe mental illness (SMI) have higher rates of a range of physical health conditions, yet little is known regarding the clustering of physical health conditions in this population. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and clustering of chronic physical health conditions in people with SMI, compared to people without SMI.Methods and findingsWe performed a cohort-nested accumulated prevalence study, using primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), which holds details of 39 million patients in the United Kingdom. We identified 68,783 adults with a primary care diagnosis of SMI (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or other psychoses) from 2000 to 2018, matched up to 1:4 to 274,684 patients without an SMI diagnosis, on age, sex, primary care practice, and year of registration at the practice. Patients had a median of 28.85 (IQR: 19.10 to 41.37) years of primary care observations. Patients with SMI had higher prevalence of smoking (27.65% versus 46.08%), obesity (24.91% versus 38.09%), alcohol misuse (3.66% versus 13.47%), and drug misuse (2.08% versus 12.84%) than comparators. We defined 24 physical health conditions derived from the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidity indices and used logistic regression to investigate individual conditions and multimorbidity. We controlled for age, sex, region, and ethnicity and then additionally for health risk factors: smoking status, alcohol misuse, drug misuse, and body mass index (BMI). We defined multimorbidity clusters using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and K-means cluster analysis and described them based on the observed/expected ratio. Patients with SMI had higher odds of 19 of 24 conditions and a higher prevalence of multimorbidity (odds ratio (OR): 1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.80 to 1.88, p < 0.001) compared to those without SMI, particularly in younger age groups (males aged 30 to 39: OR: 2.49; 95% CI: 2.27 to 2.73; p < 0.001; females aged 18 to 30: OR: 2.69; 95% CI: 2.36 to 3.07; p < 0.001). Adjusting for health risk factors reduced the OR of all conditions. We identified 7 multimorbidity clusters in those with SMI and 7 in those without SMI. A total of 4 clusters were common to those with and without SMI; while 1, heart disease, appeared as one cluster in those with SMI and 3 distinct clusters in comparators; and 2 small clusters were unique to the SMI cohort. Limitations to this study include missing data, which may have led to residual confounding, and an inability to investigate the temporal associations between SMI and physical health conditions.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that physical health conditions cluster similarly in people with and without SMI, although patients with SMI had higher burden of multimorbidity, particularly in younger age groups. While interventions aimed at the general population may also be appropriate for those with SMI, there is a need for interventions aimed at better management of younger-age multimorbidity, and preventative measures focusing on diseases of younger age, and reduction of health risk factors.

In an observational analysis of primary care data from the UK, Naomi Launders and colleagues study the prevalence and clustering of physical health conditions and multimorbidity in individuals with severe mental illnesses.     

Stress, glucocorticoids and glutamate release: effects of antidepressant drugs

Stressful life events impact on memory, cognition and emotional responses, and are known to precipitate mood/anxiety disorders. It is increasingly recognized that stress and its neurochemical and endocrine mediators induce changes in glutamate synapses and circuitry, and this in turn modify mental states. Half a century after the monoamine hypothesis, it is widely accepted that maladaptive changes in excitatory/inhibitory circuitry have a primary role in the pathophysiology of mood/anxiety disorders. The neuroplasticity hypothesis posits that volumetric changes consistently found in limbic and cortical areas of depressed subjects are in good part due to remodeling of neuronal dendritic arbors and loss of synaptic spines. A considerable body of work, carried out with in vivo microdialysis as well as alternative methodologies, has shown that both stress and corticosterone treatment induce enhancement of activity-dependent glutamate release. Accordingly, results from preclinical studies suggest that stress- and glucocorticoid-induced enhancement of glutamate release and transmission plays a main role in the induction of maladaptive cellular effects, in turn responsible for dendritic remodeling.Additional recent work has showed that drugs employed for therapy of mood/anxiety disorders (antidepressants) prevent the enhancement of glutamate release induced by stress. Understanding the action of traditional drugs on glutamate transmission could be of great help in developing drugs that may work directly at this level.     

COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: A county-level analysis

BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several prior studies have calculated excess deaths in the United States but were limited to the national or state level, precluding an examination of area-level variation in excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we take advantage of county-level variation in COVID-19 mortality to estimate excess deaths associated with the pandemic and examine how the extent of excess mortality not assigned to COVID-19 varies across subsets of counties defined by sociodemographic and health characteristics.Methods and findingsIn this ecological, cross-sectional study, we made use of provisional National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data on direct COVID-19 and all-cause mortality occurring in US counties from January 1 to December 31, 2020 and reported before March 12, 2021. We used data with a 10-week time lag between the final day that deaths occurred and the last day that deaths could be reported to improve the completeness of data. Our sample included 2,096 counties with 20 or more COVID-19 deaths. The total number of residents living in these counties was 319.1 million. On average, the counties were 18.7% Hispanic, 12.7% non-Hispanic Black, and 59.6% non-Hispanic White. A total of 15.9% of the population was older than 65 years. We first modeled the relationship between 2020 all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality across all counties and then produced fully stratified models to explore differences in this relationship among strata of sociodemographic and health factors. Overall, we found that for every 100 deaths assigned to COVID-19, 120 all-cause deaths occurred (95% CI, 116 to 124), implying that 17% (95% CI, 14% to 19%) of excess deaths were ascribed to causes of death other than COVID-19 itself. Our stratified models revealed that the percentage of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 was substantially higher among counties with lower median household incomes and less formal education, counties with poorer health and more diabetes, and counties in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents, who were already at high risk of COVID-19 death based on direct counts, also reported higher percentages of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. Study limitations include the use of provisional data that may be incomplete and the lack of disaggregated data on county-level mortality by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and sociodemographic and health characteristics.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that direct COVID-19 death counts in the US in 2020 substantially underestimated total excess mortality attributable to COVID-19. Racial and socioeconomic inequities in COVID-19 mortality also increased when excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 were considered. Our results highlight the importance of considering health equity in the policy response to the pandemic.

Andrew Stokes and co-workers report a county-level analysis of excess deaths owing to COVID-19 in the United States.