Mass mortality of Sardinella aurita Valenciennes (Pisces, Clupeidae) in Thessaloniki Bay (Macedonia, Greece)

Mass mortality of Sardinella aurita was observed in Thessaloniki Bay during an abrupt temperature fall in February 1991. The mass of dead fish was estimated to be about 79.4 tonnes.     

Massive leaping of Sardinella aurita valenciennes, 1847 under probable risk of predation in Northern Aegean sea (Greece)

On the morning of 15th December 2002, several hundred live round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) individuals leaped out of the water and became stranded on the breakwater of Nea Iraklitsa port (Kavala Gulf, northern Aegean Sea, Greece). The phenomenon was most likely caused by the attack of the cetacean predator Tursiops truncatus (bottlenose dolphin), which is abundant in the area and feeds upon pelagic fish. The ability of round sardinella to leap out of the water has never been reported for other pelagic fishes.     

Trophic niche overlap between round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) and sympatric pelagic fish species in the Western Mediterranean

The northward expansion of round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) in the Mediterranean Sea, together with declines and fluctuations in biomass and landings of European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) observed in recent decades, may suggest potential inter‐specific competition in the pelagic domain. The coexistence of sympatric zooplanktivorous fish species might therefore be exposed in part to trophic niche overlap and competition for food. Combining visual diet characterization under the microscope with DNA metabarcoding from stomach contents of fish collected in spring results show that predation on relatively large krill is equally important for sardinella than for the other two niche overlapping species. Furthermore, an important overlap is found in their isotopic niche, especially with anchovy, using nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and carbon (δ¹³C) stable isotopes in muscle tissue. In fact, the three fish species are able to feed effectively in the whole prey size spectrum available during the sampled season, from the smallest diatoms and copepods to the larger prey (i.e., decapods and euphausiids), including fish larvae. Moreover, effective predation upon other large prey like siphonophores, which is observed only when multi‐proxy analyses in stomach contents are applied, might also be relevant in the diet of sardinella. The overlapping diet composition in spring, together with the effective use of food resource by sardinella, can be of special interest in potential future scenarios with warmer water temperature leading to lower zooplankton and/or higher jellyfish availability, where sardinella may take advantage over other species due to its feeding plasticity.     

Life‐history traits of temperate and thermophilic barracudas (Teleostei: Sphyraenidae) in the context of sea warming in the Mediterranean Sea

This study indicated that the life‐history traits of European barracuda Sphyraena sphyraena are apparently better suited to their environmental conditions compared to the more physically restricted life‐history traits of the yellow‐mouth barracuda Sphyraena viridensis, which co‐habit the north‐western Mediterranean Sea. The latter thermophilic species has a considerably higher reproductive potential as it invests its energy reserves in larger numbers of hydrated eggs per spawning batch. This would favour its population growth rates within the study area, especially if sea warming continues, in which case it is likely that the spawning phenology of this species would give it an advantage.     

Consequences of Mediterranean warming events in seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) flowering records

Posidonia oceanica, a seagrass endemic to the Mediterranean forms extended and extremely persistent meadows. It is a clonal plant with an apparently irregular pattern of flowering events. An extensive bibliographic review allowed the reconstruction of past flowering events of this species around the Mediterranean, with a high degree of confidence for the last 30 years. The data series on annual flowering prevalence (FP, flowering records per total records) and flowering intensity (FI, fraction of flowering shoots) produced have been compared with four series on Sea Surface annual Temperature maxima (SST_max) obtained for the NW Mediterranean (averaged from the local data series of l'Estartit and Villefranche: 1957–2005) and for the Eastern, Western basin and the whole Mediterranean sea (extracted from NCEP Reynolds interpolated SST maps: 1982–2005). Significant warming trends are detected in the Mediterranean SST_max series, at a rate of (mean+SE) 0.04±0.01°C yr⁻¹ (R²=0.24, P<0.01, N=24 years), in the Eastern basin series (0.06±0.01°C yr⁻¹, R²=0.43, P<0.001, N=24 years) and in the long SST_max series of the NW Mediterranean (0.02±0.01 C yr⁻¹, R²=0.12, P<0.02, N=49 years). The magnitudes of the SST_max anomalies around the absolute warming trend do not increase with time in any SST_max series. Peaks of FP and FI in the Mediterranean seem to occur each 9–11 years, and coincide with peaks of annual SST_max. Annual FP and FI increase with the residuals of annual SST_max warming trend in all Mediterranean basins (FP_MED: R²=0.27, P<0.01, N=23; FP_NW: R²=0.34, P<0.01, N=31; FP_E: R²=0.20; P<0.10, N=23). An outstanding event of P. oceanica flowering across the Mediterranean has been registered in Autumn 2003; 1 month after the highest annual SST_max recorded in the series. The hypothesis of flowering induction by thermal stress as the possible cause of this relationship is discussed, as well as the potential use of P. oceanica flowering record as early indicator of biological change induced by global sea warming in Mediterranean marine ecosystems.     

Incorporating physiology into species distribution models moderates the projected impact of warming on selected Mediterranean marine species

Species distribution models (SDMs) correlate species occurrences with environmental predictors, and can be used to forecast distributions under future climates. SDMs have been criticized for not explicitly including the physiological processes underlying the species response to the environment. Recently, new methods have been suggested to combine SDMs with physiological estimates of performance (physiology-SDMs). In this study, we compare SDM and physiology-SDM predictions for select marine species in the Mediterranean Sea, a region subjected to exceptionally rapid climate change. We focused on six species and created physiology-SDMs that incorporate physiological thermal performance curves from experimental data with species occurrence records. We then contrasted projections of SDMs and physiology-SDMs under future climate (year 2100) for the entire Mediterranean Sea, and particularly the ‘warm’ trailing edge in the Levant region. Across the Mediterranean, we found cross-validation model performance to be similar for regular SDMs and physiology-SDMs. However, we also show that for around half the species the physiology-SDMs substantially outperform regular SDM in the warm Levant. Moreover, for all species the uncertainty associated with the coefficients estimated from the physiology-SDMs were much lower than in the regular SDMs. Under future climate, we find that both SDMs and physiology-SDMs showed similar patterns, with species predicted to shift their distribution north-west in accordance with warming sea temperatures. However, for the physiology-SDMs predicted distributional changes are more moderate than those predicted by regular SDMs. We conclude, that while physiology-SDM predictions generally agree with the regular SDMs, incorporation of the physiological data led to less extreme range shift forecasts. The results suggest that climate-induced range shifts may be less drastic than previously predicted, and thus most species are unlikely to completely disappear with warming climate. Taken together, the findings emphasize that physiological experimental data can provide valuable supplemental information to predict range shifts of marine species.     

Does the western Irish Sea gyre influence the distribution of pelagic juvenile fish?

The western Irish Sea is an important spawning and nursery ground for many commercially exploited fish. Spawning begins in the Irish coastal regions in early spring, and moves offshore as the season develops. As a result of the onset of seasonal heating in spring, stratification isolates a dome of cold bottom winter water in the deep (>100 m) basin of the western Irish Sea. The resultant density fields drive a cyclonic gyre which dominates the circulation of the region during late spring and summer and is characterized by anticlockwise current speeds which exceed 0.2 ms^–1, after removal of tides. Surveys of pelagic juvenile (0-group) fish in 1994, 1995 and 1996, showed that they were coincident with the centre of the gyre. Physical data from 1994 and 1995, were used to describe the horizontal and vertical structure of the water column and the associated circulation regime. The behaviour and swimming speeds of pelagic juvenile fish were insufficient to explain their apparent shift in abundance away from the coast to the central western Irish Sea. Drifter and current data suggested that their entrainment into the gyre could provide both the transport and retention mechanisms.     

Contrasting growth changes in two dominant species of a Mediterranean shrubland submitted to experimental drought and warming

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate projections predict drier and warmer conditions in the Mediterranean basin in the next decades. The possibility of such climatic changes modifying the growth of two Mediterranean species, Erica multiflora and Globularia alypum, which are common components of Mediterranean shrublands, was assessed. METHODS: A field experiment was performed from March 1999 to March 2002 to prolong the drought period and to increase the night-time temperature in a Mediterranean shrubland, where E. multiflora and G. alypum are the dominant species. Annual growth in stem diameter and length of both species was measured and annual stem biomass production was estimated for 1999, 2000 and 2001. Plant seasonal growth was also assessed. KEY RESULTS: On average, drought treatment reduced soil moisture 22 %, and warming increased temperature by 0.7-1.6 degrees C. Erica multiflora plants in the drought treatment showed a 46 % lower annual stem elongation than controls. The decrease in water availability also reduced by 31 % the annual stem diameter increment and by 43 % the annual stem elongation of G. alypum plants. New shoot growth of G. alypum was also strongly reduced. Allometrically estimated biomass production was decreased by drought in both species. Warming treatment produced contrasting effects on the growth patterns of these species. Warmer conditions increased, on average, the stem basal diameter growth of E. multiflora plants by 35 %, raising also their estimated stem biomass production. On the contrary, plants of G. alypum in the warming treatment showed a 14 % lower annual stem growth in basal diameter and shorter new shoots in spring compared with controls. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate changes in the annual productivity of these Mediterranean shrubs under near future drier and warmer conditions. They also point to alterations in their competitive abilities, which could lead to changes in the species composition of these ecosystems in the long term.     

Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20‐year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species’ life‐history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta‐analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow‐water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold‐water‐associated species at the trailing “warm” end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold‐water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function.     

Distribution and biology of Alepocephalus rostvatus from the Mediterranean Sea

In the Catalan Sea (NW Mediterranean) A. rostratus was found on the bottom below 500 m and reached its maximum abundance and biomass at 1100–1300 m depth, being captured down to 2209 m. Mean fish size increased progressively with depth. Larger fish were predominantly females, and 50% of maturity was reached at 23–6 and 27–7 cm in males and females, respectively. Although a high percentage of the population was mature all year round, a peak was attained in autumn, coinciding with the slowest growth of the species. Size-at-age indicated a slow growth rate. The greatest observed age was 23 years, although most of individuals were 7–12 years old. Overall, A. rostratus can be considered as a typical K-strategist, showing a good adaptation to the oligotropic deepsea environment.     

Landscape resistance mediates native fish species distribution shifts and vulnerability to climate change in riverscapes

A broader understanding of how landscape resistance influences climate change vulnerability for many species is needed, as is an understanding of how barriers to dispersal may impact vulnerability. Freshwater biodiversity is at particular risk, but previous studies have focused on popular cold‐water fishes (e.g., salmon, trout, and char) with relatively large body sizes and mobility. Those fishes may be able to track habitat change more adeptly than less mobile species. Smaller, less mobile fishes are rarely represented in studies demonstrating effects of climate change, but depending on their thermal tolerance, they may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. By revisiting 280 sites over a 20 year interval throughout a warming riverscape, we described changes in occupancy (i.e., site extirpation and colonization probabilities) and assessed the environmental conditions associated with those changes for four fishes spanning a range of body sizes, thermal and habitat preferences. Two larger‐bodied trout species exhibited small changes in site occupancy, with bull trout experiencing a 9.2% (95% CI = 8.3%–10.1%) reduction, mostly in warmer stream reaches, and westslope cutthroat trout experiencing a nonsignificant 1% increase. The small‐bodied cool water slimy sculpin was originally distributed broadly throughout the network and experienced a 48.0% (95% CI = 42.0%–54.0%) reduction in site occupancy with declines common in warmer stream reaches and areas subject to wildfire disturbances. The small‐bodied comparatively warmer water longnose dace primarily occupied larger streams and increased its occurrence in the lower portions of connected tributaries during the study period. Distribution shifts for sculpin and dace were significantly constrained by barriers, which included anthropogenic water diversions, natural step‐pools and cascades in steeper upstream reaches. Our results suggest that aquatic communities exhibit a range of responses to climate change, and that improving passage and fluvial connectivity will be important climate adaptation tactics for conserving aquatic biodiversity.     

Noncalcifying larvae in a changing ocean: warming,not acidification/hypercapnia,is the dominant stressor on development of the sea star Meridiastra calcar

Climate change driven ocean warming and acidification is potentially detrimental to the sensitive planktonic life stages of benthic marine invertebrates. Research has focused on the effects of acidification on calcifying larvae with a paucity of data on species with alternate developmental strategies and on the interactive effects of warming and acidification. To determine the impact of climate change on a conspicuous component of the intertidal fauna of southeast Australia, the development of the noncalcifying lecithotrophic larvae of the sea star Meridiastra calcar was investigated in the setting of predicted ocean warming (+2 to 4 ^°C) and acidification (?0.4 to 0.6 pH units) for 2100 and beyond in all combinations of stressors. Temperature and pH were monitored in the habitat of M. calcar to place experiments in context with current environmental conditions. There was no effect of temperature or pH on cleavage stage embryos but later development (gastrula‐larvae) was negatively effected by a +2 to 4 ^°C warming and there was a negative effect of ?0.6 pH units on embryos reaching the hatched gastrula stage. Mortality and abnormal development in larvae increased significantly even with +2 ^°C warming and larval growth was impaired at +4 ^°C. For the range of temperature and pH conditions tested, there were no interactive effects of stressors across all stages monitored. For M. calcar, warming not acidification was the dominant stressor. A regression model incorporating data from this study and projected increasing SST for the region suggests an increase in larval mortality to 70% for M. calcar by 2100 in the absence of acclimation and adaptation. The broad distribution of this species in eastern Australia encompassing subtropical to cold temperate thermal regimes provides the possibility that local M. calcar populations may be sustained in a warming world through poleward migration of thermotolerant propagules, facilitated by the strong southward flow of the East Australian Current.     

Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long‐term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean.     

Acclimation to predicted ocean warming through developmental plasticity in a tropical reef fish

Determining the capacity of organisms to acclimate and adapt to increased temperatures is key to understand how populations and communities will respond to global warming. Although there is evidence that elevated water temperature affects metabolism, growth and condition of tropical marine fish, it is unknown whether they have the potential to acclimate, given adequate time. We reared the tropical reef fish Acanthochromis polyacanthus through its entire life cycle at present day and elevated (+1.5 and+3.0 °C) water temperatures to test its ability to thermally acclimate to ocean temperatures predicted to occur over the next 50–100 years. Fish reared at 3.0 °C greater than the present day average reduced their resting oxygen consumption (RMR) during summer compared with fish reared at present day temperatures and tested at the elevated temperature. The reduction in RMR of up to 69 mg O₂ kg^?1 h^?1 in acclimated fish could represent a significant benefit to daily energy expenditure. In contrast, there was no acclimation to summer temperatures exhibited by fish reared at 1.5 °C above present day temperatures. Fish acclimated to +3.0 °C were smaller and in poorer condition than fish reared at present day temperatures, suggesting that even with acclimation there will be significant consequences for future populations of tropical fishes caused by global warming.     

Adding climate change to the mix: responses of aquatic ectotherms to the combined effects of eutrophication and warming

The threat of excessive nutrient enrichment, or eutrophication, is intensifying across the globe as climate change progresses, presenting a major management challenge. Alterations in precipitation patterns and increases in temperature are increasing nutrient loadings in aquatic habitats and creating conditions that promote the proliferation of cyanobacterial blooms. The exacerbating effects of climate warming on eutrophication are well established, but we lack an in-depth understanding of how aquatic ectotherms respond to eutrophication and warming in tandem. Here, I provide a brief overview and critique of studies exploring the cumulative impacts of eutrophication and warming on aquatic ectotherms, and provide forward direction using mechanistically focused, multi-threat experiments to disentangle complex interactions. Evidence to date suggests that rapid warming will exacerbate the negative effects of eutrophication on aquatic ectotherms, but gradual warming will induce physiological remodelling that provides protection against nutrients and hypoxia. Moving forward, research will benefit from a greater focus on unveiling cause and effect mechanisms behind interactions and designing treatments that better mimic threat dynamics in nature. This approach will enable robust predictions of species responses to ongoing eutrophication and climate warming and enable the integration of climate warming into eutrophication management policies.     

Reproductive cycle and sex inversion in razor fish, a protogynous labrid in the southern Mediterranean Sea

The reproductive biology of the Mediterranean razor fish Xyrichthys novacula was investigated by demographic data and histological analysis of the female, intersexual and male gonads. Specimens were collected by bottom trawl on a monthly basis between June 2000 and July 2001 in a sandy bay in southern Thyrrenian. Gonad histology confirmed that the Mediterranean razor fish is a monandric, protogynous hermaphrodite. Females reached first sexual maturity at 100 mm ( L _T) and the estimated mean L _T at first maturity ( L ₅₀) was 125 mm. Females exhibited asynchronous ovarian development and multiple ovulations occurred over the spawning period. Vitellogenesis started in early May and spawning occurred from late May until late September. Sexual transition involved a large‐scale atresia of all oocyte stages and a massive degeneration of ovarian tissue followed by primordial germ cells proliferation. Sex change began at spawning time (June) but transitional individuals tended to cluster at the end of the reproductive period (September). They accounted for 17·1% of the population sampled and were found in a broad size range (105–150 mm L _T).     

Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature

The Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model (HadCM3LC) predicts loss of the Amazon rainforest in response to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the atmospheric component of HadCM3LC is used to assess the role of simulated changes in mid-twenty-first century sea surface temperature (SST) in Amazon Basin climate change. When the full HadCM3LC SST anomalies (SSTAs) are used, the atmosphere model reproduces the Amazon Basin climate change exhibited by HadCM3LC, including much of the reduction in Amazon Basin rainfall. This rainfall change is shown to be the combined effect of SSTAs in both the tropical Atlantic and the Pacific, with roughly equal contributions from each basin. The greatest rainfall reduction occurs from May to October, outside of the mature South American monsoon (SAM) season. This dry season response is the combined effect of a more rapid warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to the south, and warm SSTAs in the tropical east Pacific. Conversely, a weak enhancement of mature SAM season rainfall in response to Atlantic SST change is suppressed by the atmospheric response to Pacific SST. This net wet season response is sufficient to prevent dry season soil moisture deficits from being recharged through the SAM season, leading to a perennial soil moisture reduction and an associated 30% reduction in annual Amazon Basin net primary productivity (NPP). A further 23% NPP reduction occurs in response to a 3.5 degrees C warmer air temperature associated with a global mean SST warming.     

Warming shelf seas drive the subtropicalization of European pelagic fish communities

Pelagic fishes are among the most ecologically and economically important fish species in European seas. In principle, these pelagic fishes have potential to demonstrate rapid abundance and distribution shifts in response to climatic variability due to their high adult motility, planktonic larval stages, and low dependence on benthic habitat for food or shelter during their life histories. Here, we provide evidence of substantial climate‐driven changes to the structure of pelagic fish communities in European shelf seas. We investigated the patterns of species‐level change using catch records from 57 870 fisheries‐independent survey trawls from across European continental shelf region between 1965 and 2012. We analysed changes in the distribution and rate of occurrence of the six most common species, and observed a strong subtropicalization of the North Sea and Baltic Sea assemblages. These areas have shifted away from cold‐water assemblages typically characterized by Atlantic herring and European sprat from the 1960s to 1980s, to warmer‐water assemblages including Atlantic mackerel, Atlantic horse mackerel, European pilchard and European anchovy from the 1990s onwards. We next investigated if warming sea temperatures have forced these changes using temporally comprehensive data from the North Sea region. Our models indicated the primary driver of change in these species has been sea surface temperatures in all cases. Together, these analyses highlight how individual species responses have combined to result in a dramatic subtropicalization of the pelagic fish assemblage of the European continental shelf.