Thresholds for disease persistence in models for tick-borne infections including non-viraemic transmission,extended feeding and tick aggregation

Lyme disease and Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) are two emergent tick-borne diseases transmitted by the widely distributed European tick Ixodes ricinus. The life cycle of the vector and the number of hosts involved requires the development of complex models which consider different routes of pathogen transmission including those occurring between ticks that co-feed on the same host. Hence, we consider here a general model for tick-borne infections. We assumed ticks feed on two types of host species, one competent for viraemic transmission of infection, the second incompetent but included a third transmission route through non-viraemic transmission between ticks co-feeding on the same host. Since a blood meal lasts for several days these routes could lead to interesting nonlinearities in transmission rates, which may have important effects.We derive an explicit formula for the threshold for disease persistence in the case of viraemic transmission, also for the case of viraemic and non-viraemic transmission. From this formula, the effect of parameters on the persistence of infection can be determined. When only viraemic transmission occurs, we confirm that, while the density of the competent host has always a positive effect on infection persistence, the density of the incompetent host may have either a positive effect, by amplifying tick population, or a negative ("dilution") effect, by wasting tick bites on an incompetent host. With non-viraemic transmission, the "dilution" effect becomes less relevant. On the other hand, if the nonlinearity due to extended feeding is included, the dilution effect always occurs, but often at unrealistically high host densities. Finally, we incorporated the effects of tick aggregation on the hosts and correlation of tick stages and found that both had an important effect on infection persistence, if non-viraemic transmission occurred.     

The impact of climatic factors and host density on the long-term population dynamics of vole helminths

Summary The seasonal and long-term population dynamics of helminths parasitizing voles suggested that density-dependent factors might be important in the population dynamics of common species, whereas density-independent factors predominate in the regulation of the rare species. To test this, we used single and multiple regression to analyse the effects of climatic factors and host density on populations of six species of vole helminths over 12 years. The data do support the idea of a difference between common and rare species of helminths, but they clearly do not support the above hypothesis. The common helminths Heligmosomum mixtum (Nematoda) and Catenotaenia sp. (Cestoda) responded to changes in temperature sum (>5° C days) and precipitation during summer. The combined effect of climatic factors and host density explained most of the variation in the long-term dynamics of these common species. By contrast, the long-term dynamics of the rare helminths Paranoplocephala kalelai (Cestoda), Mastophorus muris, Capillaria sp. and Syphacia petrusewiczi (Nematoda) were explained less well by weather and host density than those of the common ones. Furthermore, the common and rare helminths differed in some ways in their responses to climatic factors.     

Changes in host densities and co-feeding pattern efficiently predict tick-borne encephalitis hazard in an endemic focus in northern Italy

Tick-borne encephalitis is an important zoonosis in many parts of north-western, central and eastern Europe, Russia and the Far East, with considerable altitudinal and latitudinal shifts described during recent decades. The reported routes of transmission for TBE virus include the saliva-activated non-viraemic transmission between co-feeding ticks taking place on rodent hosts. During the period 2001–2014, a population of the yellow-necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollis), which is considered among the most efficient TBE competent host, especially in central and western Europe, was intensively live-trapped in a known TBE focus in the Province of Trento, Italy. Individual live-trapped mice were checked for the number and position of feeding ticks and serologically screened for TBEv antibodies. A combined effect of climatic conditions and density of both roe deer and mice on the number of co-feeding tick groups was observed. Specifically, the occurrence of co-feeding ticks on mice during the questing season was affected by autumnal cooling in the previous season. On the other hand, co-feeding occurrence was also positively associated with roe deer abundance, while mouse density showed a hump-shaped pattern. Individual features of A. flavicollis such as weight and sex also affected co-feeding occurrence with the heaviest (breeding adult) males carrying more co-feeding ticks. We also found that the overall number of co-feeding ticks on mice positively affected TBEv antibody detection in this species the following year. In conclusion, a specific combination of climatic conditions in conjunction with certain rodent and roe deer densities are the principal determinants of the number of co-feeding ticks on A. flavicollis and, consequently, TBEv circulation. These variables can be used to provide an early warning signal for a TBE hazard, thus representing a useful tool for Public Health authorities to prepare action for prevention and control within TBEv circulation areas.     

Influence of primary infection on the population dynamics of Nematospiroides dubius after challenge infections in mice

Dobson C., Sitepu P. and Brindley P. J. 1985. Influence of primary infection on the population dynamics of Nematospiroides dubius after challenge infections in mice. International Journal for Parasitology15: 353–359. Similar proportions of the inoculum of Nematospiroides dubius larvae reached sexual maturity by 14 days after administration of 50–400 larvae but more adult worms had been expelled by day 63 after infection from those mice infected with 50 vs 400 larvae. There was a significant correlation between time and worm expulsion for all inoculum size groups except for mice given 400 larvae.In mice reinfected with 100 larvae, after termination of primary infections derived from 10 through 400 larvae, more worms from the challenging dose were recovered from mice given greater compared with those given smaller numbers of larvae at primary infection. The N. dubius population size after challenge infection was correlated positively both with number of larvae administered as the primary infection and with the resultant population size during that infection. The serum anti-N. dubius antibody titres after reinfection were higher in mice given 400 compared with those given fewer larvae at primary infection, and the fecundity and female to male sex ratio of the N. dubius populations decreased in proportion to these antibody titres.Protective immunity against challenge N. dubius infection, in mice which had been drenched free of adult worms established from 400 larvae for 5 down to 1 weeks before reinfection, increased from 45% (1 week) to 80% (5 weeks). There was a negative correlation between the population size of N. dubius during challenge infection and the duration between anthelmintic treatment and challenge infection.     

An empirical quantitative framework for the seasonal population dynamics of the tick Ixodes ricinus

The wide geographic and climatic range of the tick Ixodes ricinus, and the consequent marked variation in its seasonal population dynamics, have a direct impact on the transmission dynamics of the many pathogens vectored by this tick species. We use long-term observations on the seasonal abundance and fat contents (a marker of physiological ageing) of ticks, and contemporaneous microclimate at three field sites in the UK, to establish a simple quantitative framework for the phenology (i.e. seasonal cycle of development) of I. ricinus as a foundation for a generic population model. An hour-degree tick inter-stadial development model, driven by soil temperature and including diapause, predicts the recruitment (i.e. emergence from the previous stage) of a single cohort of each stage of ticks each year in the autumn. The timing of predicted emergence coincides exactly with the new appearance of high-fat nymphs and adults in the autumn. Thereafter, fat contents declined steadily until unfed ticks with very low energy reserves disappeared from the questing population within about 1 year from their recruitment. Very few newly emerged ticks were counted on the vegetation in the autumn, but they appeared in increasing numbers through the following spring. Larger ticks became active and subsequently left the questing population before smaller ones. Questing tick population dynamics are determined by seasonal patterns of tick behaviour, host-contact rates and mortality rates, superimposed on a basal phenology that is much less complex than has hitherto been portrayed.     

Simulation of climate‐tick‐host‐landscape interactions: Effects of shifts in the seasonality of host population fluctuations on tick densities

Tick vector systems are comprised of complex climate‐tick‐host‐landscape interactions that are difficult to identify and estimate from empirical observations alone. We developed a spatially‐explicit, individual‐based model, parameterized to represent ecological conditions typical of the south‐central United States, to examine effects of shifts in the seasonal occurrence of fluctuations of host densities on tick densities. Simulated shifts in the seasonal occurrence of periods of high and low host densities affected both the magnitude of unfed tick densities and the seasonality of tick development. When shifting the seasonal densities of all size classes of hosts (small, medium, and large) synchronously, densities of nymphs were affected more by smaller shifts away from the baseline host seasonality than were densities of larval and adult life stages. When shifting the seasonal densities of only a single size‐class of hosts while holding other size classes at their baseline levels, densities of larval, nymph, and adult life stages responded differently. Shifting seasonal densities of any single host‐class earlier resulted in a greater increase in adult tick density than when seasonal densities of all host classes were shifted earlier simultaneously. The mean densities of tick life stages associated with shifts in host densities resulted from system‐level interactions of host availability with tick phenology. For example, shifting the seasonality of all hosts ten weeks earlier resulted in an approximately 30% increase in the relative degree of temporal co‐occurrence of actively host‐seeking ticks and hosts compared to baseline, whereas shifting the seasonality of all hosts ten weeks later resulted in an approximately 70% decrease compared to baseline. Differences among scenarios in the overall presence of active host‐seeking ticks in the system were due primarily to the degree of co‐occurrence of periods of high densities of unfed ticks and periods of high densities of hosts.     

氟吡呋喃酮对蒙氏桨角蚜小蜂生物学及温室种群动态的影响

氟吡呋喃酮和蒙氏桨角蚜小蜂Eretmocerus mundus均是控制烟粉虱Bemisia tabaci的有效作用因子,明确氟吡呋喃酮对蒙氏桨角蚜小蜂的作用对协调应用化学农药和生防天敌绿色防控烟粉虱有重要意义。本研究首先在室内测定了氟吡呋喃酮对蒙氏桨角蚜小蜂的亚致死浓度（LC15）和致死中浓度（LC50）,并研究了氟吡呋喃酮亚致死剂量对蒙氏桨角蚜小蜂的寿命、寄生率、发育历期和羽化率等生物学指标的影响,进一步在温室内研究了氟吡呋喃酮推荐浓度对蒙氏桨角蚜小蜂种群动态的影响。结果表明,氟吡呋喃酮对蒙氏桨角蚜小蜂亚致死浓度（LC15）和致死中浓度（LC50）分别为4.397 mg ai/L和35.1 mg ai/L,与对照相比,在两种浓度处理下蒙氏桨角蚜小蜂的寿命分别缩短39.3%和59%,发育历期分别延长5.9%和39.3%,寄生率分别减少22.5%和23.5%,羽化率分别减少4.43%和8.36%。温室试验表明,随用药时间的延长,蒙氏桨角蚜小蜂数量降低。药后3~15 d蒙氏桨角蚜小蜂种群数量减少21.7%~62.9%,显著低于对照,但用药18 d后种群下降趋势逐渐平缓,与对照处理相比差异不显著。该研究结果为协调应用氟吡呋喃酮和桨角蚜小蜂绿色防控烟粉虱提供了依据。     

Density dependence,population persistence,and largely futile arguments

Wolda and Dennis (1993) suggest that no valid conclusions about population regulation can be drawn on the basis of statistical tests of density dependence in time series data of population abundance. They give some examples in which a population persists even if it is not regulated by a density-dependent process: a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables, the numbers of the migrant moth Autographa gamma in Britain, annual rainfall data. We suggest that such time series data may show persistence because of a static constraint, which compels the numbers to remain within finite, positive limits, or to fit some prescribed distribution. But this mechanism can explain persistence in a biological population only when the population represents a sample from a regulated population (the case of A. gamma). We also comment on some suggestions made by Wolda and Dennis (1993) concerning the general value of statistical tests of density dependence, frequency of delayed versus non-delayed density dependence in natural populations, relative performance of different kinds of insect traps in sampling local populations, and the wider issue of how ecologists are likely to make progress in the study of population dynamics.     

模拟风雨对麦长管蚜自然种群发展的干扰作用

麦长管蚜Macrosiphum avenae（Fabricius）是我国小麦生产上的重大害虫,给小麦生产造成严重的威胁。本研究采用人工模拟风雨气象因子的方法,研究了吹风和喷水对麦长管蚜种群数量的干扰作用,解析了麦长管蚜在种群不同发展阶段受模拟风雨干扰后种群变化的特征,明确了麦长管蚜受模拟风雨作用影响其种群生长的关键时期。结果表明,在小麦田进行模拟风雨试验,处理强度越大,防治效果越好;有目标的对靶喷施处理的防治效果明显高于非目标喷施处理;确定人工喷水或吹风处理的最佳时期为小麦灌浆初期,即在该阶段进行一次喷水处理,可以获得最佳的防治效果和保产作用。     

The influence of fluctuating population densities on evolutionary dynamics

The causes and consequences of fluctuating population densities are an important topic in ecological literature. Yet, the effects of such fluctuations on maintenance of variation in spatially structured populations have received little analytic treatment. We analyze what happens when two habitats coupled by migration not only differ in their trade‐offs in selection but also in their demographic stability—and show that equilibrium allele frequencies can change significantly due to ecological feedback arising from locally fluctuating population sizes. When an ecological niche exhibits such fluctuations, these drive an asymmetry in the relative impact of gene flow, and therefore, the equilibrium frequency of the locally adapted type decreases. Our results extend the classic conditions on maintenance of diversity under selection and migration by including the effect of fluctuating population densities. We find simple analytic conditions in terms of the strength of selection, immigration, and the extent of fluctuations between generations in a continent‐island model. Although weak fluctuations hardly affect coexistence, strong recurrent fluctuations lead to extinction of the type better adapted to the fluctuating niche—even if the invader is locally maladapted. There is a disadvantage to specialization to an unstable habitat, as it makes the population vulnerable to swamping from more stable habitats.     

温度和食用藻密度对发头裸腹潘种群动态和两性生殖的影响

研究了不同温度和食用藻密度对发头裸腹潘种群动态和两性生殖的影响.结果表明:温度、食用藻密度对发头裸腹溞的种群密度、雄体密度和卵鞍数均有显著影响.高食用藻密度组的发头裸腹潘种群密度明显高于中、低食用藻密度组,其最大种群密度出现在20℃下的高食用藻密度组.在相同的温度下,发头裸腹溞的首次产幼溞数随食用藻密度的降低而减少,平均每个母潘首次产出的最大幼潘数出现在25℃下的高食用藻密度组.高食用藻密度组发头裸腹潘产生的雄体密度明显高于中、低食用藻密度组.发头裸腹溞的雄体密度与其种群密度之间存在极显著的相关性.发头裸腹溞所产的卵鞍数随食用藻密度的下降而下降,且25℃下发头裸腹溞所产的卵鞍数明显高于其他温度组.与温度相比,食用藻密度对发头裸腹潘的种群动态和两性生殖的影响更大.     

温度和食用藻密度对发头裸腹溞种群动态和两性生殖的影响

研究了不同温度和食用藻密度对发头裸腹溞种群动态和两性生殖的影响.结果表明： 温度、食用藻密度对发头裸腹溞的种群密度、雄体密度和卵鞍数均有显著影响.高食用藻密度组的发头裸腹溞种群密度明显高于中、低食用藻密度组,其最大种群密度出现在20 ℃下的高食用藻密度组.在相同的温度下,发头裸腹溞的首次产幼溞数随食用藻密度的降低而减少,平均每个母溞首次产出的最大幼溞数出现在25 ℃下的高食用藻密度组.高食用藻密度组发头裸腹溞产生的雄体密度明显高于中、低食用藻密度组.发头裸腹溞的雄体密度与其种群密度之间存在极显著的相关性.发头裸腹溞所产的卵鞍数随食用藻密度的下降而下降,且25 ℃下发头裸腹溞所产的卵鞍数明显高于其他温度组.与温度相比,食用藻密度对发头裸腹溞的种群动态和两性生殖的影响更大.     

A population dynamics perspective on effect of irrigation regimes and plant densities on greenbug abundance in grain sorghum using regression

• 1 A dataset generated from previous experiments on greenbug Schizaphis graminum (Rondani) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) response to irrigation and plant density in grain sorghum was reanalyzed using a recently‐developed mechanistic ecological model for describing aphid population density curves. The model was used to estimate seven response variables: observed peak aphid abundance, predicted peak aphid abundance, time of peak abundance, per capita birthrate, death rate coefficient, final cumulative density and duration of substantial aphid infestation across three irrigation regimes and five plant densities.
• 2 Using regression, the observed peak aphid abundance, predicted peak aphid abundance, per capita birthrate and final cumulative abundance were shown to decrease significantly, whereas the death rate coefficient and duration of the infestation were shown to increase significantly for each 100 000 plant/ha increase.
• 3 Although significant results were found for a number of variables generated from the specific data set used in the analyses, of perhaps greater importance is the potential use of these equations in future predictions of aphid population dynamics. An example of projecting population curves based on estimated peak and cumulative counts and an example of projecting population curves based on estimated birth and death rate coefficients are provided.

     

黄猄蚁对橡胶盔蚧种群消长的影响

调查西双版纳地区黄猄蚁OecophyllasmaragdinaFabricius对橡胶盔蚧Parasaissetianigra(Nietner)种群数量和寄生蜂的影响。结果表明:黄猄蚁对橡胶盔蚧种群消长及寄生蜂均有影响。"有蚂蚁"枝条上介壳虫种群数量显著高于"无蚂蚁"枝条。"有蚂蚁"枝条介壳虫死亡率和寄生蜂都显著低于"无蚂蚁"枝条。说明黄猄蚁的存在影响了橡胶树介壳虫的种群繁殖率和死亡率。建议在今后综合防治中,充分利用蚂蚁与橡胶树介壳虫关系。通过驱逐橡胶树上的蚂蚁来有效遏制介壳虫的发生。     

The role of screening and treatment in the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis co-infection: a mathematical study

In this paper, we present a deterministic non-linear mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of HIV and TB co-infection and analyze it in the presence of screening and treatment. The equilibria of the model are computed and stability of these equilibria is discussed. The basic reproduction numbers corresponding to both HIV and TB are found and we show that the disease-free equilibrium is stable only when the basic reproduction numbers for both the diseases are less than one. When both the reproduction numbers are greater than one, the co-infection equilibrium point may exist. The co-infection equilibrium is found to be locally stable whenever it exists. The TB-only and HIV-only equilibria are locally asymptotically stable under some restriction on parameters. We present numerical simulation results to support the analytical findings. We observe that screening with proper counseling of HIV infectives results in a significant reduction of the number of individuals progressing to HIV. Additionally, the screening of TB reduces the infection prevalence of TB disease. The results reported in this paper clearly indicate that proper screening and counseling can check the spread of HIV and TB diseases and effective control strategies can be formulated around ‘screening with proper counseling’.     

Bifurcation analysis of the Nowak-Bangham model in CTL dynamics

This paper investigates the local bifurcations of a CTL response model published by Nowak and Bangham [M.A. Nowak, C.R.M. Bangham, Population dynamics of immune responses to persistent viruses, Science 272 (1996) 74]. The Nowak-Bangham model can have three equilibria depending on the basic reproduction number, and generates a Hopf bifurcation through two bifurcations of equilibria. The main result shows a sufficient condition for the interior equilibrium to have a unique bifurcation point at which a simple Hopf bifurcation occurs. For this proof, some new techniques are developed in order to apply the method established by Liu [W.M. Liu, Criterion of Hopf bifurcations without using eigenvalues, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 182 (1) (1994) 250]. In addition, to demonstrate the result obtained theoretically, some bifurcation diagrams are presented with numerical examples.     

Modeling the transmission dynamics and control of hepatitis B virus in China

Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening liver infection caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and is a major global health problem. HBV is the most common serious viral infection and a leading cause of death in mainland China. Around 130 million people in China are carriers of HBV, almost a third of the people infected with HBV worldwide and about 10% of the general population in the country; among them 30 million are chronically infected. Every year, 300,000 people die from HBV-related diseases in China, accounting for 40-50% of HBV-related deaths worldwide. Despite an effective vaccination program for newborn babies since the 1990s, which has reduced chronic HBV infection in children, the incidence of hepatitis B is still increasing in China. We propose a mathematical model to understand the transmission dynamics and prevalence of HBV infection in China. Based on the data reported by the Ministry of Health of China, the model provides an approximate estimate of the basic reproduction number R₀=2.406. This indicates that hepatitis B is endemic in China and is approaching its equilibrium with the current immunization program and control measures. Although China made a great progress in increasing coverage among infants with hepatitis B vaccine, it has a long and hard battle to fight in order to significantly reduce the incidence and eventually eradicate the virus.     

新疆不同寄主植物苹果蠹蛾成虫动态调查

【背景】苹果蠹蛾是世界性重大检疫害虫,新疆是我国最早发现该虫的地区。监测苹果蠹蛾的种群动态能提高控制效率并阻止其在非疫区蔓延。【方法】利用性诱剂于2008~2009年期间监测苹果蠹蛾成虫在苹果园、梨园、李子园、桃园等生境下种群动态。【结果】苹果蠹蛾在北疆有2个明显高峰期,越冬代成虫高峰期为5月中旬至6月上旬,第1代成虫高峰期为7月中旬至8月中旬;在南疆有3个明显高峰期,分别为6月底至7月上旬、7月下旬至8月上旬和8月底至9月中旬。南疆和北疆的种群数量差异不是很大,单个性诱剂高峰期的种群数量小于10头,平均0.5~2.0头;同一区域苹果蠹蛾在不同作物之间存在一定的差异,但集中在苹果园和桃园。【结论与意义】新疆北疆苹果蠹蛾成虫一年一般发生2代,南疆3代。苹果蠹蛾以苹果园为主要发生区域,同一区域的苹果蠹蛾在相邻果园的苹果、葡萄、梨树上的种群动态具有密切相关性。苹果蠹蛾的种群动态为准确判定防治关键期提供依据,其在不同作物之间的相关性,为区域重点监测对象的判定提供基础依据。     

田间不同防治方法对麦蚜种群动态的影响

【目的】从保护生态环境兼顾防治害虫的角度出发,研究不同防治方法对麦蚜种群动态的影响,为麦蚜的田间防治提供理论依据。【方法】本试验分别设置不同的麦蚜防治田(空白对照田、黄板田、糖醋液田、诱芯田、诱虫灯田、综合防治田),在小麦生长期观察不同的防治田内麦蚜的种群动态的变化。【结果】诱虫灯对有翅蚜的防治效果要好于黄板和糖醋液,但对禾谷缢管蚜Rhopalosiphum padi(Linnaeus)有翅蚜的诱捕效果不明显,黄板和糖醋液对有翅蚜和无翅蚜均有防治效果,多种防治方法共同利用对麦蚜种群数量有一定的防治效果。【结论】多种防治方法共同使用的防治效果优于单一防治方法,诱虫灯、糖醋液、黄板、诱芯对不同种类麦蚜的防治效果不同。在田间使用时应注意不同时期采用不同的防治方法。