Patterns and trends in tropical forest cover

Abstract

In the 2005 edition of the Global Forest Resources Assessment of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, a moderate negative trend was reported regarding the change of tropical forests: the net annual change was estimated at ?11.8 million ha for the period 2000–2005, while the rate was ?11.65 for the previous decade. Tropical Asia showed the highest rate and most negative trend, passing from ?0.8% to ?0.96% per year. The remote sensing survey done for previous Forest Resource Assessment editions covering the period 1980–2000 revealed distinct change processes in the three tropical regions. Survey results indicated that socio‐economic and cultural aspects that characterise and differentiate the geographic regions determine the nature of the change processes and underlying cause–effect mechanisms, while the ecological setting determines the intensity of change and reveals its environmental implications. A comparison of deforestation processes of the two decades indicated an on‐going process of “radicalisation” of the dynamics determined by an increasing frequency of high‐gradient changes (e.g. total clearing rather than fragmentation and degradation) and by a shift of deforestation fronts towards wetter zones, with a consequent higher per‐hectare carbon emission associated with deforested areas.     

Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010

Insular Southeast Asia experienced the highest level of deforestation among all humid tropical regions of the world during the 1990s. Owing to the exceptionally high biodiversity in Southeast Asian forest ecosystems and the immense amount of carbon stored in forested peatlands, deforestation in this region has the potential to cause serious global consequences. In this study, we analysed deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010 utilizing a pair of 250 m spatial resolution land cover maps produced with regional methodology and classification scheme. The results revealed an overall 1.0% yearly decline in forest cover in insular Southeast Asia (including the Indonesian part of New Guinea) with main change trajectories to plantations and secondary vegetation. Throughout the region, peat swamp forests experienced clearly the highest deforestation rates at an average annual rate of 2.2%, while lowland evergreen forests declined by 1.2%/yr. In addition, the analysis showed remarkable spatial variation in deforestation levels within the region and exposed two extreme concentration areas with over 5.0% annual forest loss: the eastern lowlands of Sumatra and the peatlands of Sarawak, Borneo. Both of these areas lost around half of their year 2000 peat swamp forest cover by 2010. As a whole this study has shown that deforestation has continued to take place on high level in insular Southeast Asia since the turn of the millennium. These on‐going changes not only endanger the existence of numerous forest species endemic to this region, but they further increase the elevated carbon emissions from deforested peatlands of insular Southeast Asia thereby directly contributing to the rising carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere.     

Determination of tropical deforestation rates and related carbon losses from 1990 to 2010

We estimate changes in forest cover (deforestation and forest regrowth) in the tropics for the two last decades (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) based on a sample of 4000 units of 10 ×10 km size. Forest cover is interpreted from satellite imagery at 30 × 30 m resolution. Forest cover changes are then combined with pan‐tropical biomass maps to estimate carbon losses. We show that there was a gross loss of tropical forests of 8.0 million ha yr^?1 in the 1990s and 7.6 million ha yr^?1 in the 2000s (0.49% annual rate), with no statistically significant difference. Humid forests account for 64% of the total forest cover in 2010 and 54% of the net forest loss during second study decade. Losses of forest cover and Other Wooded Land (OWL) cover result in estimates of carbon losses which are similar for 1990s and 2000s at 887 MtC yr^?1 (range: 646–1238) and 880 MtC yr^?1 (range: 602–1237) respectively, with humid regions contributing two‐thirds. The estimates of forest area changes have small statistical standard errors due to large sample size. We also reduce uncertainties of previous estimates of carbon losses and removals. Our estimates of forest area change are significantly lower as compared to national survey data. We reconcile recent low estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation for early 2000s and show that carbon loss rates did not change between the two last decades. Carbon losses from deforestation represent circa 10% of Carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production during the last decade (2000–2010). Our estimates of annual removals of carbon from forest regrowth at 115 MtC yr^?1 (range: 61–168) and 97 MtC yr^?1 (53–141) for the 1990s and 2000s respectively are five to fifteen times lower than earlier published estimates.     

Forest Conversion and Degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972–2002

Quantifying forest change in the tropics is important because of the role these forests play in the conservation of biodiversity and the global carbon cycle. One of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest is located in Papua New Guinea. Here we show that change in its extent and condition has occurred to a greater extent than previously recorded. We assessed deforestation and forest degradation in Papua New Guinea by comparing a land-cover map from 1972 with a land-cover map created from nationwide high-resolution satellite imagery recorded since 2002. In 2002 there were 28,251,967 ha of tropical rain forest. Between 1972 and 2002, a net 15 percent of Papua New Guinea's tropical forests were cleared and 8.8 percent were degraded through logging. The drivers of forest change have been concentrated within the accessible forest estate where a net 36 percent were degraded or deforested through both forestry and nonforestry processes. Since 1972, 13 percent of upper montane forests have also been lost. We estimate that over the period 1990–2002, overall rates of change generally increased and varied between 0.8 and 1.8 percent/yr, while rates in commercially accessible forest have been far higher—having varied between 1.1 and 3.4 percent/yr. These rates are far higher than those reported by the FAO over the same period. We conclude that rapid and substantial forest change has occurred in Papua New Guinea, with the major drivers being logging in the lowland forests and subsistence agriculture throughout the country with comparatively minor contributions from forest fires, plantation establishment, and mining.     

Pantropical geography of lightning‐caused disturbance and its implications for tropical forests

Lightning is a major agent of disturbance, but its ecological effects in the tropics are unquantified. Here we used ground and satellite sensors to quantify the geography of lightning strikes in terrestrial tropical ecosystems, and to evaluate whether spatial variation in lightning frequency is associated with variation in tropical forest structure and dynamics. Between 2013 and 2018, tropical terrestrial ecosystems received an average of 100.4 million lightning strikes per year, and the frequency of strikes was spatially autocorrelated at local‐to‐continental scales. Lightning strikes were more frequent in forests, savannas, and urban areas than in grasslands, shrublands, and croplands. Higher lightning frequency was positively associated with woody biomass turnover and negatively associated with aboveground biomass and the density of large trees (trees/ha) in forests across Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Extrapolating from the only tropical forest study that comprehensively assessed tree damage and mortality from lightning strikes, we estimate that lightning directly damages c. 832 million trees in tropical forests annually, of which c. 194 million die. The similarly high lightning frequency in tropical savannas suggests that lightning also influences savanna tree mortality rates and ecosystem processes. These patterns indicate that lightning‐caused disturbance plays a major and largely unappreciated role in pantropical ecosystem dynamics and global carbon cycling.     

Global extent,development and economic impact of acid soils

Acid soils occupy approximately 30% or 3950 m ha of the world's ice free land area and occur mainly in two global belts where they have developed under udic or ustic moisture regimes. The northern belt (cold and temperate climate) is dominated by Spodosols, Alfisols, Inceptisols and Histosols and the southern tropical belt consists largely of Ultisols and Oxisols.Sixty-seven percent of the acid soils support forests and woodlands and approximately 18% are covered by savanna, prairie and steppe vegetation. Only 4.5% (179 m ha) of the acid soil area is used for arable crops. A further 33 m ha is utilized for perennial tropical crops. The value of the annual production in these areas is approximately US$ 129 billion. Value of products from forests, woodlands and permanent pastures on acid soils is difficult to evaluate.Forests of the tropics and wetlands have an invaluable role in global, regional and local ecosystem balance and a protective role for flora, fauna and water resources. While acid soils in the northern belt are increasingly protected and reafforested, the destructive exploitation of timber and abusive modern shifting cultivation have contributed to the loss of >250 million ha of tropical forest during the second half of this century leaving vast areas of anthropic savannas on heavily eroded and degraded acid soils.The authors believe that attempts to develop acid soils for agriculture and agroforestry in the tropics should concentrate on these deforested and abandoned areas of degraded acid soils. However, this will be difficult without significant initial investment and adequate technology. A three step development approach is suggested, which could help prevent or halt the annual destruction of >5 mill. ha tropical forests by untraditional shifting cultivators. It would help to protect the fragile natural ecosystems on tropical acid soils now considered to be indispensable for the future life on earth.     

The national determinants of deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa

For decades, the dynamics of tropical deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have defied easy explanation. The rates of deforestation have been lower than elsewhere in the tropics, and the driving forces evident in other places, government new land settlement schemes and industrialized agriculture, have largely been absent in SSA. The context and causes for African deforestation become clearer through an analysis of new, national-level data on forest cover change for SSA countries for the 2000–2005 period. The recent dynamic in SSA varies from dry to wet biomes. Deforestation occurred at faster rates in nations with predominantly dry forests. The wetter Congo basin countries had lower rates of deforestation, in part because tax receipts from oil and mineral industries in this region spurred rural to urban migration, declines in agriculture and increased imports of cereals from abroad. In this respect, the Congo basin countries may be experiencing an oil and mineral fuelled forest transition. Small farmers play a more important role in African deforestation than they do in southeast Asia and Latin America, in part because small-scale agriculture remains one of the few livelihoods open to rural peoples.     

A large‐scale field assessment of carbon stocks in human‐modified tropical forests

Tropical rainforests store enormous amounts of carbon, the protection of which represents a vital component of efforts to mitigate global climate change. Currently, tropical forest conservation, science, policies, and climate mitigation actions focus predominantly on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation alone. However, every year vast areas of the humid tropics are disturbed by selective logging, understory fires, and habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need to understand the effect of such disturbances on carbon stocks, and how stocks in disturbed forests compare to those found in undisturbed primary forests as well as in regenerating secondary forests. Here, we present the results of the largest field study to date on the impacts of human disturbances on above and belowground carbon stocks in tropical forests. Live vegetation, the largest carbon pool, was extremely sensitive to disturbance: forests that experienced both selective logging and understory fires stored, on average, 40% less aboveground carbon than undisturbed forests and were structurally similar to secondary forests. Edge effects also played an important role in explaining variability in aboveground carbon stocks of disturbed forests. Results indicate a potential rapid recovery of the dead wood and litter carbon pools, while soil stocks (0–30 cm) appeared to be resistant to the effects of logging and fire. Carbon loss and subsequent emissions due to human disturbances remain largely unaccounted for in greenhouse gas inventories, but by comparing our estimates of depleted carbon stocks in disturbed forests with Brazilian government assessments of the total forest area annually disturbed in the Amazon, we show that these emissions could represent up to 40% of the carbon loss from deforestation in the region. We conclude that conservation programs aiming to ensure the long‐term permanence of forest carbon stocks, such as REDD+, will remain limited in their success unless they effectively avoid degradation as well as deforestation.     

Forest transition in an ecologically important region: Patterns and causes for landscape dynamics in the Niger Delta

The influence of human related actives such as oil and gas exploration, intensified logging of trees and over exploitation of forest resources for food, have negatively impacted the once flourishing and ecologically diverse forest system of the Niger Delta region in Nigeria. Relevant information on the transitional changes of forested landscapes in the delta is poor compared to other tropical forests such as the Brazilian and Columbian Amazonian forest where numerous research studies have been conducted. Consequently, this study aimed at investigating the spatial extent and rates of forest transition in the Niger Delta region taking into consideration the patterns, causes and implications of the landscape dynamics. The study determined the spatial extent and rates of forest transition in the study area using remotely sensed data from 1986 and 2007. The results indicated that the spatial extent of deforestation, unchanged forest cover and afforestation were 1.38, 2.39, and 1.15 million hectares, respectively, while the annual deforestation and afforestation rates were 0.95 and 0.75% which are high compared to other areas in the humid tropics. The annual rate of change in forest cover was determined as ?0.13% indicating an overall reduction in the spatial extent of forest cover for the entire delta. Changes in the spatial structure of forests were investigated using landscape metrics and the results showed there was a substantial increase in forest fragmentation. The variations in population dynamics and poverty indicators between different states of the Niger Delta were unable to explain the observed patterns of forest change. Instead, the authors observed that the main determinants of forest dynamics were the variations in state forest management policies and the influence of the oil and gas industry on the economies of the states. High rates of afforestation were found in states that have limited oil resources and were more economically dependent on forest products, while states with high deforestation rates were found in the main oil-producing parts of the study site. Using the present trend of forest transition dynamics, a 20-year forward simulation was generated using the Markov algorithm. The results concerning forest transition in the study area point to the urgent need for appropriate environmental policy development and implementation for the Niger Delta region.     

Spatial and temporal deforestation dynamics in protected and unprotected dry forests: a case study from Myanmar (Burma)

Tropical dry forests are more threatened, less protected and especially susceptible to deforestation. However, most deforestation research focuses on tropical rain forests. We analyzed spatial and temporal changes in land cover from 1972 through 2005 at Chatthin Wildlife Sanctuary (CWS), a tropical dry forest in Myanmar (Burma). CWS is one of the largest protected patches of tropical dry forest in Southeast Asia and supports over half the remaining wild population of the endangered Eld’s deer. Between 1973 and 2005, 62% of forest was lost at an annual rate of 1.86% in the area, while forest loss inside CWS was only 16% (0.45% annually). Based on trends found during our study period, dry forests outside CWS would not persist beyond 2019, while forests inside CWS would persist for at least another 100 years. Analysis of temporal deforestation patterns indicates the highest rate of loss occurred between 1992 and 2001. Conversion to agriculture, shifting agriculture, and flooding from a hydro-electric development were the main deforestation drivers. Fragmentation was also severe, halving the area of suitable Eld’s deer habitat between 1973 and 2001, and increasing its isolation. CWS protection efforts were effective in reducing deforestation rates, although deforestation effects extended up to 2 km into the sanctuary. Establishing new protected areas for dry forests and finding ways to mitigate human impacts on existing forests are both needed to protect remaining dry forests and the species they support.     

Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local‐level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr^?1 from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr^?1 of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well‐defined ‘local hotspots’ of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.     

Biogeochemical implications of labile phosphorus in forest soils determined by the Hedley fractionation procedure

Forest ecologists and biogeochemists have used a variety of extraction techniques to assess labile vs. non-labile soil P pools in chronosequences, the balance between biological vs. geochemical control of P transformations across a wide range of soil orders, the role of plants with either N-fixing or mycorrhizal symbionts in controlling soil P fractions, and to make inferences about plant-available P. Currently, variants of the sequential extraction procedure developed by M. J. Hedley and co-workers afford the greatest discrimination among labile and non-labile organic and inorganic P pools. Results of recent studies that used this technique to evaluate P fractions in forest soils indicate the following: (1) in intact, highly weathered forest soils of the humid tropics, Hedley-labile P values are several times larger than extractable P values resulting from mildly acidic extracting solutions which were commonly used in the past 2 decades; (2) pools of Hedley-labile P are several times larger than the annual forest P requirement and P required from the soil annually in both temperate and tropical forests; (3) long-term trends in non-labile P pools during pedogenesis are adequately represented by the Walker and Syers' model of changes in P fractionation during soil development. However, to better represent trends in pools that can supply plant-available P across forest soils of different age and weathering status, the paradigm should be modified; and (4) across a wide range of tropical and temperate forest soils, organic matter content is an important determinant of Hedley-labile P.     

Natural regeneration in the context of large‐scale forest and landscape restoration in the tropics

Large‐scale and long‐term restoration efforts are urgently needed to reverse historical global trends of deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics. Restoration of forests within landscapes offers multiple social, economic, and environmental benefits that enhance lives of local people, mitigate effects of climate change, increase food security, and safeguard soil and water resources. Despite rapidly growing knowledge regarding the extent and feasibility of natural regeneration and the environmental and economic benefits of naturally regenerating forests in the tropics, tree planting remains the major focus of restoration programs. Natural regeneration is often ignored as a viable land‐use option. Here, we assemble a set of 16 original papers that provide an overview of the ecological, economic, and social dimensions of forest and landscape restoration (FLR), a relatively new approach to forest restoration that aims to regain ecological integrity and enhance human well‐being in deforested or degraded forest landscapes. The papers describe how spontaneous (passive) and assisted natural regeneration can contribute to achieving multiple social and ecological benefits. Forest and landscape restoration is centered on the people who live and work in the landscape and whose livelihoods will benefit and diversify through restoration activities inside and outside of farms. Given the scale of degraded forestland and the need to mitigate climate change and meet human development needs in the tropics, harnessing the potential of natural regeneration will play an essential role in achieving the ambitious goals that motivate global restoration initiatives.     

Assessing the impacts of past and ongoing deforestation on rainfall patterns in South America

Despite recent advances in modeling forest–rainfall relationships, the current understanding of changes in observed rainfall patterns resulting from historical deforestation remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed how 40 years of deforestation has altered rainfall patterns in South America as well as how current Amazonian forest cover sustains rainfall. First, we develop a spatiotemporal neural network model to simulate rainfall as a function of vegetation and climate inputs in South America; second, we assess the rainfall effects of observed deforestation in South America during the periods 1982–2020 and 2000–2020; third, we assess the potential rainfall changes in the Amazon biome under two deforestation scenarios. We find that, on average, cumulative deforestation in South America from 1982 to 2020 has reduced rainfall over the period 2016–2020 by 18% over deforested areas, and by 9% over non-deforested areas across South America. We also find that more recent deforestation, that is, from 2000 to 2020, has reduced rainfall over the period 2016–2020 by 10% over deforested areas and by 5% over non-deforested areas. Deforestation between 1982 and 2020 has led to a doubling in the area experiencing a minimum dry season of 4 months in the Amazon biome. Similarly, in the Cerrado region, there has been a corresponding doubling in the area with a minimum dry season of 7 months. These changes are compared to a hypothetical scenario where no deforestation occurred. Complete conversion of all Amazon forest land outside protected areas would reduce average annual rainfall in the Amazon by 36% and complete deforestation of all forest cover including protected areas would reduce average annual rainfall in the Amazon by 68%. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for effective conservation measures to safeguard both forest ecosystems and sustainable agricultural practices.     

Deforestation and Reforestation of Latin America and the Caribbean (2001–2010)

Forest cover change directly affects biodiversity, the global carbon budget, and ecosystem function. Within Latin American and the Caribbean region (LAC), many studies have documented extensive deforestation, but there are also many local studies reporting forest recovery. These contrasting dynamics have been largely attributed to demographic and socio‐economic change. For example, local population change due to migration can stimulate forest recovery, while the increasing global demand for food can drive agriculture expansion. However, as no analysis has simultaneously evaluated deforestation and reforestation from the municipal to continental scale, we lack a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution of these processes. We overcame this limitation by producing wall‐to‐wall, annual maps of change in woody vegetation and other land‐cover classes between 2001 and 2010 for each of the 16,050 municipalities in LAC, and we used nonparametric Random Forest regression analyses to determine which environmental or population variables best explained the variation in woody vegetation change. Woody vegetation change was dominated by deforestation (?541,835 km²), particularly in the moist forest, dry forest, and savannas/shrublands biomes in South America. Extensive areas also recovered woody vegetation (+362,430 km²), particularly in regions too dry or too steep for modern agriculture. Deforestation in moist forests tended to occur in lowland areas with low population density, but woody cover change was not related to municipality‐scale population change. These results emphasize the importance of quantitating deforestation and reforestation at multiple spatial scales and linking these changes with global drivers such as the global demand for food.     

Land use and the ecology of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages of high-altitude rainforest streams in Uganda

1. In sub‐Saharan Africa, tropical forests are increasingly threatened by accelerating rates of forest conversion and degradation. In East Africa, the larger tracts of intact rainforest lie largely in protected areas surrounded by converted landscape. Thus, there is critical need to understand the functional links between large‐scale land use and changes in river conditions, and the implications of park boundaries on catchment integrity. 2. The objective of this study was to use the mosaic of heavily converted land and pristine forest created by the protection of the high‐altitude rainforest in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda to explore effects of deforestation on aquatic systems and the value of forest in buffering effects of adjacent land conversion. A set of 16 sites was selected over four drainages to include four categories of deforestation: agricultural land, deforested upstream (of the park boundary), forest edge (park boundary) and forest. We predicted that forest buffer (downstream or on the edge) would moderate effects of deforestation. To address this prediction, we quantified relationships between disturbance level and both physicochemical characters and traits of the macroinvertebrate assemblages during six sampling periods (February 2003 and June 2004). 3. Results of both principal components analysis and cluster analyses indicated differences in limnological variables among deforestation categories. PC1 described a gradient from deforested sites with poor water quality to pristine forested sites with relatively good water quality. Agricultural sites and deforested upstream sites generally had the highest turbidity, total dissolved solids (TDS), and conductivity values and low transparency values. Forest sites and boundary site groups generally exhibited low turbidity, TDS, and conductivity values and high water transparency values. Sites also clustered according to deforestation categories; forest and forested edge sites formed a cluster independent of both agricultural land and deforested‐upstream. 4. Water transparency, water temperature, and pH were the most important factors predicting benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages. Sensitive invertebrate families of Trichoptera, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Odonata dominated forested sites with high water transparency, low water temperature, and low pH while the tolerant families of Ephemeroptera, Diptera, Hemiptera, and Coleoptera were abundant in agriculturally impacted sites with low water transparency, high water temperature, and high pH. 5. This study provides support for the importance of riparian buffers in moderating effects of deforestation. Forest and forested edge sites were more similar in both limnological and macroinvertebrate assemblage structure than sites within or downstream from agricultural lands. If the protected area cannot encompass the catchment, the use of rivers as park boundaries may help to maintain the biological integrity of the rivers by buffering one side of the watercourse.     

Relationships between deforestation, riparian forest buffers and benthic macroinvertebrates in neotropical headwater streams

1. Few studies have evaluated the effectiveness of riparian buffers in the tropics, despite their potential to reduce the impacts of deforestation on stream communities. We examined macroinvertebrate assemblages and stream habitat characteristics in small lowland streams in southeastern Costa Rica to assess the impacts of deforestation on benthic communities and the influence of riparian forest buffers on these effects. Three different stream reach types were compared in the study: (i) forested reference reaches, (ii) stream reaches adjacent to pasture with a riparian forest buffer at least 15 m in width on both banks and (iii) stream reaches adjacent to pasture without a riparian forest buffer. 2. Comparisons between forest and pasture reaches suggest that deforestation, even at a very local scale, can alter the taxonomic composition of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages, reduce macroinvertebrate diversity and eliminate the most sensitive taxa. The presence of a riparian forest buffer appeared to significantly reduce the effects of deforestation on benthic communities, as macroinvertebrate diversity and assemblage structure in forest buffer reaches were generally very similar to those in forested reference reaches. One forest buffer reach was clearly an exception to this pattern, despite the presence of a wide riparian buffer. 3. The taxonomic structure of macroinvertebrate assemblages differed between pool and riffle habitats, but contrasts among the three reach types in our study were consistent across the two habitats. Differences among reach types also persisted across three sampling periods during our 15‐month study. 4. Among the environmental variables we measured, only stream water temperature varied significantly among reach types, but trends in periphyton abundance and stream sedimentation may have contributed to observed differences in macroinvertebrate assemblage structure. 5. Forest cover was high in all of our study catchments, and more research is needed to determine whether riparian forest buffers will sustain similar functions in more extensively deforested landscapes. Nevertheless, our results provide support for Costa Rican regulations protecting riparian forests and suggest that proper riparian management could significantly reduce the impacts of deforestation on benthic communities in tropical streams.     

Predictive Modelling of Contagious Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges “bottom up”, as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated–pre- and post-PPCDAM (“Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia”)–the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently experiencing low deforestation rates due to its isolation.     

Quantifying mortality of tropical rain forest trees using high-spatial-resolution satellite data

Assessment of forest responses to climate change is severely hampered by the limited information on tree death on short temporal and broad spatial scales, particularly in tropical forests. We used 1‐m resolution panchromatic IKONOS and 0.7‐m resolution QuickBird satellite data, acquired in 2000 and 2002, respectively, to evaluate tree death rates at the La Selva Biological Station in old‐growth Tropical Wet Forest in Costa Rica, Central America. Using a calibration factor derived from ground inspection of tree deaths predicted from the images, we calculated a landscape‐scale annual exponential death rate of 2.8%. This corresponds closely to data for all canopy‐level trees in 18 forest inventory plots, each of 0.5 ha, for a mostly‐overlapping 2‐year period (2.8% per year). This study shows that high‐spatial‐resolution satellite data can now be used to measure old‐growth tropical rain forest tree death rates, suggesting many new avenues for tropical forest ecology and global change research.     

Effect of differential forest management on biodiversity in a tropical hill forest of Malaysia and implications for conservation

Forest ownership is considered as vital for sustainable management of forest and its associated biodiversity. The Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015 reported an increasing rate of privately owned forests on a global scale. However, deforestation was found to be very active in privately owned hill forest areas of Malaysia. Three forest reserves and three adjacent private forests from Penang State was purposively chosen as this state has been experiencing a quick and radical changes due to urban expansion over the last three decades. In this study variation in biodiversity were measured using community structure of both vascular plants and avifauna species along selected micro environmental variables. Finally implications for conservation were proposed considering the current state of deforestation in private hill forest (PHF). Plant community and avifauna analysis revealed that government hill forest areas (GHF) were more diverse and healthier than PHF, also rich with higher evenness. Species richness between GHF and PHF showed significant difference in plant species (p < 0.05) but not for avifauna. Avifauna diversity analysis recorded higher abundance of birds in PHF and finally appeared as buffer service provider for avifauna diversity in GHF reserves. But the current rate of deforestation in PHF is 1.4% annually. Thus any alteration to hill forest cover (land development activities) should be banned immediately with intensive care to the PHF through co-management. Moreover human activities inside the GHF should also be controlled to conserve the remnant species of the island as conspicuous disturbance were also found inside GHF.