Inter-comparison of population models for the calculation of radiation dose effects on wildlife

An inter-comparison of five models designed to predict the effect of ionizing radiation on populations of non-human wildlife, performed under the IAEA EMRAS II programme, is presented and discussed. A benchmark scenario ‘Population response to chronic irradiation’ was developed in which stable generic populations of mice, hare/rabbit, wolf/wild dog and deer were modelled as subjected to chronic low-LET radiation with dose rates of 0–5?×?10^?2 Gy?day^?1 in increments of 10^?2 Gy?day^?1. The duration of exposure simulations was 5?years. Results are given for the size of each surviving population for each of the applied dose rates at the end of the 1st to 5th years of exposure. Despite the theoretical differences in the modelling approaches, the inter-comparison allowed the identification of a series of common findings. At dose rates of about 10^?2 Gy?day^?1 for 5?years, the survival of populations of short-lived species was better than that of long-lived species: significant reduction in large mammals was predicted whilst small mammals survive at 80–100?% of the control. Dose rates in excess of 2?×?10^?2 Gy?day^?1 for 5?years produced considerable reduction in all populations. From this study, a potential relationship between higher reproduction rates and lower radiation effects at population level can be hypothesized. The work signals the direction for future investigations to validate and improve the predictive ability of different population dose effects models.     

Mathematical simulation of dose–effect relationships for fish eggs exposed chronically to ionizing radiation

A mathematical model which simulates the observed dose-effect relationships for fish eggs exposed to chronic irradiation is presented. The model assumes that the exposed fish eggs may exist in one of the following states: normally developing, reversibly damaged, and lethally damaged. Reversible damages may be recovered by repairing mechanisms which are spent for the repairing processes. The model was applied to describe the observed differences in effects of chronic exposure for quickly (2 weeks) and slowly (up to 20 weeks) developing fish eggs. Calculations were performed for dose rates of chronic irradiation ranging from 10 to 300 mGy/day. Two types of radiation effects were considered—the effect on eggs survival (percentage of survived eggs at time t), and the depletion of the repairing pool (in percentage of its maximal value). The model predictions have been compared with the experimental data from the EPIC database. This comparison showed that the model adequately describes the radiation effects in fish eggs of different species, within a wide range of chronic radiation exposures.     

Radiological Benchmarks for Effects on Aquatic Biota at the Oak Ridge Reservation

Radiological benchmarks for aquatic biota were developed for use at the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation as screening values to determine the spatial extent of potential ecological effects and to identify the need for additional site-specific investigation. The Point Source Dose Distribution approach was used to calculate water and sediment activities for selected radionuclides that result in a total dose rate to small and large fish of 1 Rad d^?1, which is the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements recommended acceptable dose rate to natural populations of aquatic biota. These screening values incorporate internal and external exposures from parent isotopes and all short-lived daughter products. They also include exposures from all major alpha, beta, and gamma emissions for each isotope. Unlike exposures to chemicals, exposures to radionuclides are expressed as the dose rate received by the organism. Dose rates that account for the biological effects to the organism are additive. If the total dose rate from all radionuclides and pathways exceeds a recommended acceptable dose rate, further analysis is needed to determine the hazards posed by radionuclides. If, however, the total dose rate falls below an acceptable dose rate, radionuclides may be eliminated from further study.     

Chronic radiation exposure at Chernobyl shows no effect on genetic diversity in the freshwater crustacean,Asellus aquaticus thirty years on

Analysis of genetic diversity represents a fundamental component of ecological risk assessments in contaminated environments. Many studies have assessed the genetic implications of chronic radiation exposure at Chernobyl, generally recording an elevated genetic diversity and mutation rate in rodents, plants, and birds inhabiting contaminated areas. Only limited studies have considered genetic diversity in aquatic biota at Chernobyl, despite the large number of freshwater systems where elevated dose rates will persist for many years. Consequently, the present study aimed to assess the effects of chronic radiation exposure on genetic diversity in the freshwater crustacean, Asellus aquaticus, using a genome‐wide SNP approach (Genotyping‐by‐sequencing). It was hypothesized that genetic diversity in A. aquaticus would be positively correlated with dose rate. A. aquaticus was collected from six lakes in Belarus and the Ukraine ranging in dose rate from 0.064 to 27.1 µGy/hr. Genotyping‐by‐sequencing analysis was performed on 74 individuals. A significant relationship between geographical distance and genetic differentiation confirmed the Isolation‐by‐Distance model. Conversely, no significant relationship between dose rate and genetic differentiation suggested no effect of the contamination gradient on genetic differentiation between populations. No significant relationship between five measures of genetic diversity and dose rate was recorded, suggesting that radiation exposure has not significantly influenced genetic diversity in A. aquaticus at Chernobyl. This is the first study to adopt a genome‐wide SNP approach to assess the impacts of environmental radiation exposure on biota. These findings are fundamental to understanding the long‐term success of aquatic populations in contaminated environments at Chernobyl and Fukushima.     

Dose rate effects of low-LET ionizing radiation on fish cells

Radiobiological responses of a highly clonogenic fish cell line, eelB, to low-LET ionizing radiation and effects of dose rates were studied. In acute exposure to 0.1–12 Gy of gamma rays, eelB’s cell survival curve displayed a linear–quadratic (LQ) relationship. In the LQ model, α, β, and α/β ratio were 0.0024, 0.037, and 0.065, respectively; for the first time that these values were reported for fish cells. In the multi-target model, n, D _o, and D _q values were determined to be 4.42, 2.16, and 3.21 Gy, respectively, and were the smallest among fish cell lines being examined to date. The mitochondrial potential response to gamma radiation in eelB cells was at least biphasic: mitochondria hyperpolarized 2 h and then depolarized 5 h post-irradiation. Upon receiving gamma rays with a total dose of 5 Gy, dose rates (ranging between 83 and 1366 mGy/min) had different effects on the clonogenic survival but not the mitochondrial potential. The clonogenic survival was significantly higher at the lowest dose rate of 83 mGy/min than at the other higher dose rates. Upon continuous irradiation with beta particles from tritium at 0.5, 5, 50, and 500 mGy/day for 7 days, mitochondria significantly depolarized at the three higher dose rates. Clearly, dose rates had differential effects on the clonogenic survival of and mitochondrial membrane potential in fish cells.     

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.     

Inter-comparison of absorbed dose rates for non-human biota

A number of approaches have been proposed to estimate the exposure of non-human biota to ionizing radiation. This paper reports an inter-comparison of the unweighted absorbed dose rates for the whole organism (compared as dose conversion coefficients, or DCCs) for both internal and external exposure, estimated by 11 of these approaches for selected organisms from the Reference Animals and Plants geometries as proposed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Inter-comparison results indicate that DCCs for internal exposure compare well between the different approaches, whereas variation is greater for external exposure DCCs. Where variation among internal DCCs is greatest, it is generally due to different daughter products being included in the DCC of the parent. In the case of external exposures, particularly to low-energy beta-emitters, variations are most likely to be due to different media densities being assumed. On a radionuclide-by-radionuclide basis, the different approaches tend to compare least favourably for (3)H, (14)C and the alpha-emitters. This is consistent with models with different source/target geometry assumptions showing maximum variability in output for the types of radiation having the lowest range across matter. The intercomparison demonstrated that all participating approaches to biota dose calculation are reasonably comparable, despite a range of different assumptions being made.     

An approach for the assessment of risk from chronic radiation to populations of phytoplankton and zooplankton

A conceptual model of the effects of chronic radiation on a population of phytoplankton and zooplankton in an oceanic nutrient layer is presented. The model shows that there are distinct threshold dose rates at which the different plankton populations become unsustainable. These are 10,400 μGy h⁻¹ for phytoplankton and 125 μGy h⁻¹ for zooplankton. Both these values are considerably greater than the current screening values for protection of 10 μGy h⁻¹. The model highlights the effects of predator–prey dynamics in predicting that when the zooplankton is affected by the radiation dose, the phytoplankton population can increase. In addition, the model was altered to replicate the dose rates to the plankton of a previous ERICA Irish Sea assessment (24 μGy h⁻¹ for zooplankton and 430 μGy h⁻¹ to phytoplankton). The results showed only a 10% decrease in the zooplankton population and a 15% increase in the phytoplankton population. Therefore, at this level of dose, the model predicts that although the dose rate exceeds the guideline value, populations are not significantly affected. This result highlights the limitations of a single screening value for different groups of organisms.     

Monte Carlo derived absorbed fractions for a voxelized model of Oncorhynchus mykiss,a rainbow trout

Simple, ellipsoidal geometries have long been the standard for estimating radiation dose rates in non-human biota (NHB). With the introduction of a regulatory protection standard that emphasizes protection of NHB as its own end point, there has been interest in improved models for the calculation of dose rates in NHB. Here, we describe the creation of a voxelized model for a rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a freshwater aquatic salmonid. Absorbed fractions (AFs) for both photon and electron sources were tabulated at electron energies of 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.7, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 4.0 MeV and photon energies of 0.01, 0.015, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 4.0 MeV. A representative set of the data is made available in this publication; the entire set of absorbed fractions is available as electronic supplementary materials. These results are consistent with previous voxelized models and reinforce the well-understood relationship between the AF and the target’s mass and location, as well as the energy of the incident radiation.     

Genetic efficacy of low doses of ionizing radiation in chronically-irradiated small mammals

Earlier we have established the genetic effects of low dose chronic irradiation in bank vole (somatic and germ cells, embryos), in pond carp (fertilized eggs, embryos, fry) and in laboratory mice (somatic and germ cells) in the range of doses from near-background to 10 cGy. These low dose effects observed in mammals and fish are not expected from extrapolation of high dose experiments. For understanding reasons this discrepancy the comparative analysis of genetic efficiency of low dose chronic irradiation and the higher doses of acute irradiation was carried out with natural populations of bank vole which inhabited the two sites differing in ground of radionuclide deposition. For comparing efficiency the linear regression model of dose-effect curve was used. Dose-effect equations were obtained for animals from two chronically irradiated bank vole populations. The mean population absorbed doses were in the range 0.04-0.68 cGy, the main part of absorbed doses consisted of external radiation of animals exposed to 137Cs gamma-rays. Dose-effect equations for acute irradiation to 137Cs gamma-rays (10-100 cGy) were determined for the same populations. Comparison of genetic efficiency was made by extrapolation, using regression coefficient beta and doubling dose estimation. For chronic exposure the doubling doses calculated from low-dose experiments are 0.1-2 cGy and the doubling doses determined from high-dose experiments are in the range of 5-20 cGy. Our hypothesis that the doubling dose estimate is calculated in higher-dose ionizing radiation experiments should be much higher than the deduced from the low dose line regression equation was verified. The doubling dose estimates for somatic cells of bank vole and those for germ cells of laboratory mice are in close agreement. The radiosensitivity of bank vole chromosomes were shown is practically the same as that for human lymphocytes since doubling dose estimates for acute irradiation close to each other. For low LET radiation a higher genetic efficiency of chronic low doses in comparison with the higher doses of acute gamma-irradiation (137Cs source) was proved by three methods.     

Radiation effects in generic populations inhabiting a limiting environment

A generic population model is formulated for radiation risk assessment of natural biota. The model demonstrates that effects of radiation on the population survival do not follow directly the effects on individual organisms. Dose rates resulting in population extinction can be analytically calculated. Besides individual radiosensitivity, two key parameters were found to determine the survival potential of a population under chronic radiation stress: the ratio “biomass losses/biomass synthesis,” and the lump amount of limiting resource in the environment. A benchmark scenario “Population response to chronic irradiation” developed within the IAEA Programme EMRAS II was calculated for generic populations of mice, hare/rabbit, wolf/wild dog, and deer/goat chronically exposed to different levels of ionizing radiation. In the conditions of the benchmark scenario, model populations survived normally (>90% of the control value) at dose rates below the following levels: 3 mGy day⁻¹ for wolf/wild dog; 10 mGy day⁻¹ for deer/goat; 14 mGy day⁻¹ for hare/rabbit; and 20 mGy day⁻¹ for mice. The model predictions showed a relatively high survival potential of short-lived and productive species such as mice. At the same time, populations of long-lived animals with slow and radiosensitive reproduction such as wolf/wild dog were candidates to extinction at chronic exposures above 5 mGy day⁻¹. Recovery of short-lived and productive species took a much shorter time compared with long-lived and slow reproductive species.     

Relative Biological Effectiveness of HZE Particles for Chromosomal Exchanges and Other Surrogate Cancer Risk Endpoints

The biological effects of high charge and energy (HZE) particle exposures are of interest in space radiation protection of astronauts and cosmonauts, and estimating secondary cancer risks for patients undergoing Hadron therapy for primary cancers. The large number of particles types and energies that makeup primary or secondary radiation in HZE particle exposures precludes tumor induction studies in animal models for all but a few particle types and energies, thus leading to the use of surrogate endpoints to investigate the details of the radiation quality dependence of relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors. In this report we make detailed RBE predictions of the charge number and energy dependence of RBE’s using a parametric track structure model to represent experimental results for the low dose response for chromosomal exchanges in normal human lymphocyte and fibroblast cells with comparison to published data for neoplastic transformation and gene mutation. RBE’s are evaluated against acute doses of γ-rays for doses near 1 Gy. Models that assume linear or non-targeted effects at low dose are considered. Modest values of RBE (<10) are found for simple exchanges using a linear dose response model, however in the non-targeted effects model for fibroblast cells large RBE values (>10) are predicted at low doses <0.1 Gy. The radiation quality dependence of RBE’s against the effects of acute doses γ-rays found for neoplastic transformation and gene mutation studies are similar to those found for simple exchanges if a linear response is assumed at low HZE particle doses. Comparisons of the resulting model parameters to those used in the NASA radiation quality factor function are discussed.     

Predicting natural mortality rates of plants and animals

Understanding the factors that control the mortality rates of species in their natural environments is important for understanding the structure and dynamics of populations, communities and ecosystems. Here, we test a model of natural mortality that yields explicit, quantitative predictions based on the constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism. Extensive field data from plants, invertebrates, fish, birds and mammals indicate that much of the heterogeneity in rates of natural mortality can be predicted, despite the many extrinsic sources of mortality in natural systems. These results suggest that common 'rule(s)' govern mortality rates in ecological communities for organisms as diverse as plants and animals.     

Effects of radiation on the environment: a need to question old paradigms and enhance collaboration among radiation biologists and radiation ecologists

A historical perspective is given of the current paradigm that does not explicitly protect nonhuman biota from radiation but instead relies on the concept that if dose limits are set to protect humans, then the environment is automatically protected as well. We summarize recent international questioning of this paradigm and briefly present three frameworks for protecting biota that are being considered by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, and the International Commission on Radiological Protection. We point out a controversial component in each of the three frameworks and suggest topics that need additional research. We emphasize that to properly address radiation protection of the environment, we need to understand how effects are integrated across different levels of biological organization. We caution that the proposed use of molecular end points to estimate ecological risks from radioactive contamination is applicable only if we understand the extent of the impact that molecular damage has on individual organisms and populations of exposed biota. To accomplish the latter, enhanced collaborations are required among the traditionally separate disciplines of radiation biology and radiation ecology.     

Impact assessment of ionizing radiation on human and non-human biota from the vicinity of a near-surface radioactive waste repository

This work describes the radiological assessment of the near-surface Maisiagala radioactive waste repository (Lithuania) over the period 2005–2012, with focus on water pathways and special emphasis on tritium. The study includes an assessment of the effect of post-closure upgrading, the durability of which is greater than 30 years. Both human and terrestrial non-human biota are considered, with local low-intensity forestry and small farms being the area of concern. The radiological exposure was evaluated using the RESRAD-OFFSITE, RESRAD-BIOTA and ERICA codes in combination with long-term data from a dedicated environmental monitoring programme. All measurements were performed at the Lithuanian Institute of Physics as part of this project. It is determined that, after repository upgrading, radiological exposure to humans are significantly lower than the human dose constraint of 0.2 mSv/year valid in the Republic of Lithuania. Likewise, for non-human biota, dose rates are below the ERICA/PROTECT screening levels. The potential annual effective inhalation dose that could be incurred by the highest-exposed human individual (which is due to tritiated water vapour airborne release over the most exposed area) does not exceed 0.1 μSv. Tritium-labelled drinking water appears to be the main pathway for human impact, representing about 83 % of the exposure. Annual committed effective dose (CED) values for members of the public consuming birch sap as medical practice are calculated to be several orders of magnitude below the CEDs for the same location associated with drinking of well water. The data presented here indicate that upper soil-layer samples may not provide a good indication of potential exposure to terrestrial deep-rooted trees, as demonstrated by an investigation of stratified ³H in soil moisture, expressed on a wet soil mass basis, in an area with subsurface contamination.     

居民食用大亚湾海洋生物所致内照射剂量研究

内照射剂量的估算在剂量防护中是十分重要的。对居民由于食入大亚湾核污染海洋生物所导致的内照射剂量给出一个评价方法是十分必要的。在对潮流污染扩散进行数值模拟的基础上,得出放射性核素浓度场的分布,进一步给出一个内照射剂量估算方法。根据这一估算方法,可以简便的估算出每个居民由于食入大亚湾海洋生物所致的辐射剂量。估算结果表明,每人每年由于食入大亚湾海洋生物所导致的内照射剂量在10^-6~10^-9Sv之间,低于人类每年人均受到的本底辐射。     

Stocking of captive-bred fish can cause long-term population decline and gene pool replacement: predictions from a population dynamics model incorporating density-dependent mortality

Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.     

Cancer mortality risk among workers at the Mayak nuclear complex

At present, direct data on risk from protracted or fractionated radiation exposure at low dose rates have been limited largely to studies of populations exposed to low cumulative doses with resulting low statistical power. We evaluated the cancer risks associated with protracted exposure to external whole-body gamma radiation at high cumulative doses (the average dose is 0.8 Gy and the highest doses exceed 10 Gy) in Russian nuclear workers. Cancer deaths in a cohort of about 21,500 nuclear workers who began working at the Mayak complex between 1948 and 1972 were ascertained from death certificates and autopsy reports with follow-up through December 1997. Excess relative risk models were used to estimate solid cancer and leukemia risks associated with external gamma-radiation dose with adjustment for effects of plutonium exposures. Both solid cancer and leukemia death rates increased significantly with increasing gamma-ray dose (P < 0.001). Under a linear dose-response model, the excess relative risk for lung, liver and skeletal cancers as a group (668 deaths) adjusted for plutonium exposure is 0.30 per gray (P < 0.001) and 0.08 per gray (P < 0.001) for all other solid cancers (1062 deaths). The solid cancer dose-response functions appear to be nonlinear, with the excess risk estimates at doses of less than 3 Gy being about twice those predicted by the linear model. Plutonium exposure was associated with increased risks both for lung, liver and skeletal cancers (the sites of primary plutonium deposition) and for other solid cancers as a group. A significant dose response, with no indication of plutonium exposure effects, was found for leukemia. Excess risks for leukemia exhibited a significant dependence on the time since the dose was received. For doses received within 3 to 5 years of death the excess relative risk per gray was estimated to be about 7 (P < 0.001), but this risk was only 0.45 (P = 0.02) for doses received 5 to 45 years prior to death. External gamma-ray exposures significantly increased risks of both solid cancers and leukemia in this large cohort of men and women with occupational radiation exposures. Risks at doses of less than 1 Gy may be slightly lower than those seen for doses arising from acute exposures in the atomic bomb survivors. As dose estimates for the Mayak workers are improved, it should be possible to obtain more precise estimates of solid cancer and leukemia risks from protracted external radiation exposure in this cohort.     

Whole-body to tissue concentration ratios for use in biota dose assessments for animals

Environmental monitoring programs often measure contaminant concentrations in animal tissues consumed by humans (e.g., muscle). By comparison, demonstration of the protection of biota from the potential effects of radionuclides involves a comparison of whole-body doses to radiological dose benchmarks. Consequently, methods for deriving whole-body concentration ratios based on tissue-specific data are required to make best use of the available information. This paper provides a series of look-up tables with whole-body:tissue-specific concentration ratios for non-human biota. Focus was placed on relatively broad animal categories (including molluscs, crustaceans, freshwater fishes, marine fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals) and commonly measured tissues (specifically, bone, muscle, liver and kidney). Depending upon organism, whole-body to tissue concentration ratios were derived for between 12 and 47 elements. The whole-body to tissue concentration ratios can be used to estimate whole-body concentrations from tissue-specific measurements. However, we recommend that any given whole-body to tissue concentration ratio should not be used if the value falls between 0.75 and 1.5. Instead, a value of one should be assumed.     

Low dose ionizing radiation produces too few reactive oxygen species to directly affect antioxidant concentrations in cells

It has been hypothesized that radiation-induced oxidative stress is the mechanism for a wide range of negative impacts on biota living in radioactively contaminated areas around Chernobyl. The present study tests this hypothesis mechanistically, for the first time, by modelling the impacts of radiolysis products within the cell resulting from radiations (low linear energy transfer β and γ), and dose rates appropriate to current contamination types and densities in the Chernobyl exclusion zone and at Fukushima. At 417 μGy h(-1) (illustrative of the most contaminated areas at Chernobyl), generation of radiolysis products did not significantly impact cellular concentrations of reactive oxygen species, or cellular redox potential. This study does not support the hypothesis that direct oxidizing stress is a mechanism for damage to organisms exposed to chronic radiation at dose rates typical of contaminated environments.