Child Mortality Estimation: Accelerated Progress in Reducing Global Child Mortality, 1990–2010

Monitoring development indicators has become a central interest of international agencies and countries for tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. In this review, which also provides an introduction to a collection of articles, we describe the methodology used by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to track country-specific changes in the key indicator for Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), the decline of the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age five, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and ₅q₀). We review how relevant data from civil registration, sample registration, population censuses, and household surveys are compiled and assessed for United Nations member states, and how time series regression models are fitted to all points of acceptable quality to establish the trends in U5MR from which infant and neonatal mortality rates are generally derived. The application of this methodology indicates that, between 1990 and 2010, the global U5MR fell from 88 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births, and the annual number of under-five deaths fell from 12.0 to 7.6 million. Although the annual rate of reduction in the U5MR accelerated from 1.9% for the period 1990–2000 to 2.5% for the period 2000–2010, it remains well below the 4.4% annual rate of reduction required to achieve the MDG 4 goal of a two-thirds reduction in U5MR from its 1990 value by 2015. Thus, despite progress in reducing child mortality worldwide, and an encouraging increase in the pace of decline over the last two decades, MDG 4 will not be met without greatly increasing efforts to reduce child deaths.     

Evolution of the Global Use of Unsafe Medical Injections, 2000–2010

Objective

Since 1999, substantial efforts have been made by the international community to reduce the risks associated with unsafe injections, through ministries of health, international donors, the World Health Organization and the Safe Injection Global Network. The present study attempted to measure the progress, or lack thereof, made over the 2000–2010 decade in reducing unsafe injections in ten regions of the world corresponding to developing and transitional economies.

Methods

Data about the number of injections per person per year and the proportion of re-use of syringes and needles were obtained for 2010, mainly from population surveys, and compared with previous estimates for 2000 which had used various sources of information including injection safety assessments, population surveys and published studies on injection practices.

Results

From 2000 to 2010, in developing countries and transitional economies, the average number of injections per person per year decreased from 3.40 to 2.88, while the proportion of re-use of injection devices dropped from 39.8% to 5.5%. Combining both factors the number of unsafe injections per person per year decreased from 1.35 to 0.16. Even if substantial progress has been made, the Eastern Mediterranean region remains problematic, with 0.57 unsafe injections per person per year. In sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, people now receive on average only 0.04–0.05 unsafe injections per year.

Conclusion

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the number of unsafe injections in developing countries and transitional economies, essentially through a reduction in the re-use of injection devices. In some regions, elimination of unsafe injections might become a reasonable goal.     

Wild Laboratories of Climate Change: Plants,Phenology, and Global Warming, 1955–1980

Journal of the History of Biology - Phenologists track the seasonal behavior of plants and animals in response to climatic change. During the second half of the twentieth century, phenologists...     

Burden of Chagas disease in Brazil, 1990–2016: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Chagas disease continues to be an important cause of morbidity, mortality and disability in several Latin American countries, including Brazil. Using findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD, 2016), we present years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years due to Chagas disease in Brazil, by sex, age group, and Brazilian states, from 1990 to 2016. Results are reported in absolute numbers and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 population) with 95% uncertainty intervals. In 2016, 141,640 disability-adjusted life years (95% uncertainty intervals: 129,065–155,941) due to Chagas disease were estimated in Brazil, with a relative reduction of 36.7% compared with 1990 (223,879 disability-adjusted life years (95% uncertainty intervals: 209,372–238,591)). Age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates declined at the national level (?69.7%) and in all Brazilian states between 1990 and 2016, but with different regional patterns. The decrease in the disability-adjusted life year rates was driven primarily by a consistent reduction in the years of life lost rates, the main component of total disability-adjusted life years for Chagas disease. The highest fatal and non-fatal burden due to Chagas disease was observed among males, the elderly, and in those Brazilian states encompassing important endemic areas for vector transmission in the past. Despite the consistent reduction in its burden during the period, Chagas disease is still an important and neglected cause of health lost due to premature mortality and disability in Brazil. Efforts should be made to maintain the political interest and sustainability of surveillance and control actions for Chagas disease, prevent the risk of re-emergence of vector transmission in endemic areas, and provide health care to chronically infected individuals, including early diagnosis and treatment interventions.     

Correction to: Wild Laboratories of Climate Change: Plants,Phenology, and Global Warming, 1955–1980

Journal of the History of Biology -     

Global Co‐Distribution of Light at Night (LAN) and Cancers of Prostate,Colon, and Lung in Men

The incidence rates of cancers in men differ by countries of the world. We compared the incidence rates of three of the most common cancers (prostate, lung, and colon) in men residing in 164 different countries with the population‐weighted light at night (LAN) exposure and with several developmental and environmental indicators, including per capita income, percent urban population, and electricity consumption. The estimate of per capita LAN exposure was a novel aspect of this study. Both ordinary least squares (OLS) and spatial error (SE) regression models were used in the analysis. We found a significant positive association between population exposure to LAN and incidence rates of prostate cancer, but no such association with lung cancer or colon cancer. The prostate cancer result is consistent with a biological theory and a limited number of previous studies of circadian disruption and risk. The LAN‐prostate cancer connection is postulated to be due to suppression of melatonin and/or disruption of clock gene function. An analysis holding other variables at average values across the 164 countries yielded a risk of prostate cancer in the highest LAN‐exposed countries 110% higher than in the lowest LAN exposed countries. This observed association is a necessary condition for a potentially large effect of LAN on risk of prostate cancer. However, it is not sufficient due to potential confounding by factors that increase the risk of prostate cancer and are also associated with LAN among the studied countries.     

The Role of Gap Junctions in Endothelial–Stromal Cell Interactions

Human Physiology - Gap junctions are one of the most highly specialized intercellular communications providing not only electrical coupling but also metabolic cooperation between cells due to the...     

The Evolution of the idea of homeostasis: Determinism,stochastics, and chaos–self-organization

Homeostasis is a basic concept in investigating all living systems. Homeostasis and life are synonyms to a certain extent. The concept of homeostasis has been studied and developed for more than 150 years; however, only the 21st century brought us close to understanding homeostasis as a state of a biosystem and a continuous process. The chaos and self-organization theory (CSOT) proves that the conventional views based on determinism (functional analysis) or stochastics (when stochastic uncertainty or certainty occurs) cannot describe homeostasis as defined by W.B. Cannon and his followers. The new CSOT shows a clear boundary between determinism, stochastics (and deterministic chaos), and third-type systems, which have five special properties (principles of self-organization) and can be described in terms of quasiattractors. Kinematics is understood as the motion of quasi-attractors in the phase spaces of states. Complexity is introduced as the rate of evolution of complex biological systems, differing from the definition by Prigogine–Glansdorff. At the same time, concepts of uncertainty of the first and second types and an analog of the Heisenberg calculus are introduced for complexity. According to these concepts, complex biosystems are transferred from the area of traditional science to a new area of the theory of chaos and self-organization.     

Escalating burden of breast cancer in southern Thailand: Analysis of 1990–2010 incidence and prediction of future trends

BackgroundThailand is undergoing an epidemiologic transition, with decreasing incidence of infectious diseases and increasing rates of chronic conditions, including cancer. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females both in the southern region Thailand and throughout Thailand. However, there is a lack of research on the epidemiology of this and other cancers.MethodsHere we use cancer incidence data from the Songkhla Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the incidence of breast cancer in Southern Thailand. We use joinpoint analysis, age-period-cohort models and nordpred analysis to investigate the incidence of breast cancer in Southern Thailand from 1990 to 2010 and project future trends from 2010 to 2029.ResultsWe found that age-adjusted breast cancer incidence rates in Southern Thailand increased by almost 300% from 1990 to 2010 going from 10.0 to 27.8 cases per 100,000 person-years. Both period and cohort effects played a role in shaping the increase in incidence. Three distinct incidence projection methods consistently suggested that incidence rates will continue to increase in the future with incidence for women age 50 and above increasing at a higher rate than for women below 50.ConclusionsTo date, this is the first study to examine Thai breast cancer incidence from a regional registry. This study provides a basis for future planning strategies in breast cancer prevention and to guide hypotheses for population-based epidemiologic research in Thailand.     

The reported incidence of campylobacteriosis modelled as a function of earlier temperatures and numbers of cases,Montreal, Canada, 1990–2006

Previous studies have detected an effect of earlier temperatures on the incidence of campylobacteriosis in humans, but without adjustment for earlier numbers of cases of the disease. We estimated the effect of temperature on the number of cases notified by week in Montreal, Canada, from 1 January 1990 to 26 March 2006, simultaneously with the effect of the numbers of cases notified in the preceding weeks. The current campylobacteriosis count (week 0) was modelled by negative binomial regression, with earlier weekly average temperatures and earlier counts as predictors. Secular trends were accounted for by cubic spline functions and seasonal variations by sine-cosine functions. Indicator variables identified weeks with fewer than 5 working days. In the final statistical model, a 1°C increase in temperature above 10°C during any of weeks −1 to −6 was associated with a 0.8% (95% CI: 0.3% to 1.3%) increase in the current count. For each additional notified case during any of weeks −1 to −5 or −9 to −12, the increase in the current count was approximately 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2% to 1.0%). Thus, earlier temperatures and earlier counts have independent effects, that of temperatures being the larger one. The temperature effect is too small to require short term public health planning. However, in Montreal, an increase in average temperature of the order of 4.5°C, forecast by some for 2055, could produce a 23% increase in incidence, resulting in about 4,000 excess cases per year.     

Global Burden of Sickle Cell Anaemia in Children under Five, 2010–2050: Modelling Based on Demographics,Excess Mortality,and Interventions

Background

The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.

Methods and Findings

First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400–398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500–657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900–106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500–200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600–48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100–70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700–59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900–64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800–6,699,100] newborns with SCA. Similarly, large-scale universal screening could save the lives of up to 9,806,000 (CI: 6,745,800–14,232,700) newborns with SCA globally, 85% (CI: 81%–88%) of whom will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. The study findings are limited by the uncertainty in the estimates and the assumptions around mortality reductions associated with interventions.

Conclusions

Our quantitative approach confirms that the global burden of SCA is increasing, and highlights the need to develop specific national policies for appropriate public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Further empirical collaborative epidemiological studies are vital to assess current and future health care needs, especially in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Centers and peripheries: The development of British physiology, 1870–1914

Conclusions By 1910 the Cambridge University physiology department had become the kernel of British physiology. Between 1909 and 1914 an astonishing number of young and talented scientists passed through the laboratory. The University College department was also a stimulating place of study under the dynamic leadership of Ernest Starling.I have argued that the reasons for this metropolitan axis within British physiology lie with the social structure of late-Victorian and Edwardian higher education. Cambridge, Oxford, and University College London were national institutions attracting students from all over England and Wales. In contrast, the provincial colleges drew their clientele from relatively narrow geographic radii. Generally, also, these institutions were regarded as socially inferior to the longer-established universities.A brief survey of the biographies of some British physiologists demonstrates how physiology, as an occupation, became, over the later decades of the century, socially elite. The scientists who achieved full-time posts in the 1870s generally came from somewhat marginal backgrounds. Foster, like his mentors T. H. Huxley and William Sharpey, came from a non-conformist family. Edward Schäfer was also a dissenter and, like Foster, began his professional career as a general practitioner.Physiologists of the succeeding generation, however, came from wealthy families with established intellectual traditions. John Scott Haldane, nephew of John Burdon Sanderson, was the brother of the politician R. B. Haldane and uncle of the historian A. R. B. Haldane.⁷¹ Joseph Barcroft was one of the most affluent of all physiologists.⁷² His family's wealth derived from linen manufacturing. He attended the Ley's School Cambridge, where his schoolmates included Henry Dale, later Director of the National Institute for Medical Research; F. A. Bainbridge, who eventually became Professor of Physiology at St. Bartholomew's Hospital; and the Cambridge historian J. H. Clapham. A. V. Hill, Professor of Physiology at Manchester and, subsequently, London, married Margaret Keynes, sister of John Maynard Keynes and niece of Sir Walter Langdon Brown, Professor of Physic at Cambridge. Margaret Keynes's younger brother, the surgeon Sir Geoffrey Keynes, married a granddaughter of Charles Darwin; their son Richard Keynes also became a physiologist at Cambridge.These families were part of a new class emerging during the late Victorian period, descendants of the great reforming radicals of the 1830s, who had begun to achieve power through positions in the universities, the professions, and the civil service. Their social prestige rested upon their intellectual expertise. Physiology was an appealing research discipline to these groups because of its clear dissociation from industry and commerce. And because physiology's practical face was medicine, its acceptability was reinforced by professional ties.The nature of the Physiological Society confirms this image of physiology as an elite science. By the turn of the century the Society had taken on some of the characteristics of a dining club. The scientific meetings were generally followed by dinner: if the Society met at Oxford, they were entertained at Burdon Sanderson's college, Magdalen.⁷³ Through a black ball system, unwanted candidates could be excluded. In 1912, when the question of admitting foreigners was discussed, E. H. Starling wrote to Edward Schäfer: the Society has very much in it the nature of a club, and a certain amount of personal knowledge of the candidate is always desirable.⁷⁴.The developing institutional structure of physiology in late Victorian Britain indicates, therefore, that we must look beyond the achievements of individuals and departments to understand why physiology flourished. The discipline became part of a new social order in which the professional middle classes assumed increasing power. These groups valued intellectual skill, especially in the pure scienes, as forces both for self-advancement and for progress within society.     

Incidence,prevalence, mortality,disability-adjusted life years and risk factors of cancer in Australia and comparison with OECD countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BackgroundComparative evidence on the burden, trend, and risk factors of cancer is limited. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we aimed to assess cancer burden – incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) – and attributable risk factors for Australia between 1990 and 2015, and to compare them with those of 34 members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).MethodsThe general GBD cancer estimation methods were used with data input from vital registration systems and cancer registries. A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions due to risk factors.ResultsIn 2015 there were 198,880 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 183,908–217,365) estimated incident cancer cases and 47,562 (95% UI: 46,061–49,004) cancer deaths in Australia. Twenty-nine percent (95% UI: 28.2–29.8) of total deaths and 17.0% (95% UI: 15.0–19.1) of DALYs were caused by cancer in Australia in 2015. Cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung, colon and rectum, and prostate were the most common causes of cancer deaths. Thirty-six percent (95% UI: 33.1–37.9) of all cancer deaths were attributable to behavioral risks. The age-standardized cancer incidence rate (ASIR) increased between 1990 and 2015, while the age-standardized cancer death rate (ASDR) decreased over the same period. In 2015, compared to 34 other OECD countries Australia ranked first (highest) and 24^th based on ASIR and ASDR, respectively.ConclusionThe incidence of cancer has increased over 25 years, and behavioral risks are responsible for a large proportion of cancer deaths. Scaling up of prevention (using strategies targeting cancer risk factors), early detection, and treatment of cancer is required to effectively address this growing health challenge.     

The Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study: Incidence of Inapparent and Symptomatic Dengue Virus Infections, 2004–2010

Dengue, caused by the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV), is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans. To examine the incidence and transmission of dengue, the authors performed a prospective community-based cohort study in 5,545 children aged 2–14 years in Managua, Nicaragua, between 2004 and 2010. Children were provided with medical care through study physicians who systematically recorded medical consult data, and yearly blood samples were collected to evaluate DENV infection incidence. The incidence of dengue cases observed was 16.1 cases (range 3.4–43.5) per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 14.5, 17.8), and a pattern of high dengue case incidence every other year was observed. The incidence of DENV infections was 90.2 infections (range 45.2–105.3) per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 86.1, 94.5). The majority of DENV infections in young children (<6 years old) were primary (60%) and the majority of infections in older children (≥9 years of age) were secondary (82%), as expected. The incidence rate of second DENV infections (121.3 per 1,000 person-years; 95% CI: 102.7, 143.4) was significantly higher than the incidence rate of primary DENV infections (78.8 per 1,000 person-years; 95% CI: 73.2, 84.9). The rigorous analytic methodology used in this study, including incidence reporting in person-years, allows comparison across studies and across different infectious diseases. This study provides important information for understanding dengue epidemiology and informing dengue vaccine policy.     

Serotype and Genotype Distribution among Invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae Isolates in Colombia, 2005–2010

In Colombia, a laboratory-based surveillance of invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates as part of SIREVA II PAHO has been conducted since 1994. This study describes the serotype distribution, antimicrobial resistance, and genetic relationships of pneumococcal isolates recovered in Colombia from 2005 to 2010. In this study, demographic data of invasive S. pneumoniae isolates were analyzed, and antimicrobial susceptibility patterns were determined. Pulse field gel electrophoresis (n = 629) and multilocus sequence typing (n = 10) were used to determine genetic relationship of isolates with minimal inhibitory concentration to penicillin ≥0.125 µg/mL. A total of 1775 isolates of S. pneumoniae were obtained. Fifteen serotypes accounted for 80.7% of isolates. Serotype 14 (23.1%) was the most frequent in the general population. Penicillin resistance was 30.7% in meningitis and 9.0% in non-meningitis. Clones Spain^6BST90, Spain^9VST156, Spain^23FST81, and Colombia^23FST338 were associated to isolates. Additionally, serotype 6A isolates were associated with ST460 and ST473, and 19A isolates with ST276, ST320, and ST1118. In conclusion, the surveillance program provided updated information of trends in serotype distribution, antimicrobial resistance and the circulation of clones in invasive pneumococcal diseases. These results could be helpful to understand the epidemiology of S. pneumoniae in Colombia, and provide a baseline to measure the impact of vaccine introduction.     

Clinical cosmobiology: The Lithuanian study 1990–1992

The numbers of deaths from ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke (CVA), all accidents except vehicular, vehicular accidents and suicide (overall total, totals for men and women) per month for 36 months (1990–1992) in Lithuania were analysed in relation to: (1) month of the year (1–12); (2) geomagnetic activity; and (3) solar activity. A total of 122227 deaths (64490 men and 57737 women) was studied, and the results compared with those obtained in an earlier study in Israel, differing geographically and climatically from Lithuania. It was shown that the time of year, solar activity, and geomagnetic activity were related to the monthly death distribution, especially regarding death from IHD and suicide. Age and gender differences were apparent in the relationship between death distribution and physical environmental factors. At age >70 years, many of these relationships change. The monthly distribution of deaths from IHD and suicide are adversely correlated with solar activity and with each other. Differences are presumed in serotoninergic effects as caused by environmental influences.