Migration patterns of Gentiana crassicaulis,an alpine gentian endemic to the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains

The Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region is one of the hotspots of biodiversity research. The uplift of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Quaternary glaciation caused great environmental changes in this region, and the responses of many species in the QTP to the Quaternary climate are still largely unknown. The genetic structure and phylogeographical history of Gentiana crassicaulis Duthie ex Burk, an endemic Chinese alpine species in this area, were investigated based on four chloroplast fragments and internal transcribed spacer region of the nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrITS) sequences of 11 populations. The populations with highly diverse chloroplast haplotypes were mainly found at the edge of the QTP. There were two main haplotypes of nrITS clones, one shared by the Yunnan and Guizhou populations, and the other by the remaining populations. The population with the highest diversity was the Gansu population, located at the edge of the plateau. Based on molecular dating, the diversification of G. crassicaulis at the edge of the plateau occurred before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the species may have completed its expansion from the edge to the platform. Ecological niche models were conducted to predict the distributional ranges of G. crassicaulis at present, during the LGM, and during the last interglacial (LIG) period. The results demonstrated that G. crassicaulis survived on the QTP platform and at the edge during the LGM but afterward retreated from the platform to the southern edge, followed by expansion to the platform.     

Evolutionary history of Apocheima cinerarius (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), a female flightless moth in northern China

The alterations in the phylogeographical structures of insects in response to the uplift of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and the Quaternary glaciations in eastern Asia, particularly in northern China, remain largely unknown. In this study, we selected Apocheima cinerarius, a moth with flightless females, using molecular data (complete mitochondrial genomes and nuclear data) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the effects of paleoclimatic changes on the evolutionary history of insects in the area of northern China. The phylogenetic tree of complete mitochondrial genomes indicated that there were two lineages, the western and eastern lineages. The nuclear gene analyses also detected unique haplotypes in each lineage. Time of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of the two lineages was approximately in Early–Middle Pleistocene. Bayesian skyline plots revealed that the western lineage underwent a population expansion event after the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas the eastern lineage underwent expansion between the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results suggest that A. cinerarius expanded eastward from western sites until the moth was distributed across the entire region of northern China. Then, A. cinerarius underwent contraction into isolated glacial refugia followed by subsequent expansion driven by Pleistocene climate changes, which established a narrow sympatric area. Our results indicate that the Quaternary environmental fluctuations had profound influences on the diversification and demography of an insect in northern China, and the same species in north‐western China and north‐eastern China have different demographic histories.     

Effects of Quaternary climatic fluctuations on the distribution of Neotropical savanna tree species

In order to develop niche models for tree species characteristic of the cerrado vegetation (woody savannas) of central South America, and to hindcast their distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum and Last Inter‐Glacial, we compiled a dataset of tree species checklists for typical cerrado vegetation (n = 282) and other geographically co‐occurring vegetation types, e.g. seasonally dry tropical forest (n = 355). We then performed an indicator species analysis to select ten species that best characterize typical cerrado vegetation and developed niche models for them using the Maxent algorithm. We used these models to assess the probability of occurrence of each species across South America at the following time slices: Current (0 ka pre‐industrial), Holocene (6 ka BP), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM – 21 ka BP), and Last Interglacial (LIG – 130 ka BP). The niche models were robust for all species and showed the highest probability of occurrence in the core area of the Cerrado Domain. The palaeomodels suggested changes in the distributions of cerrado tree species throughout the Quaternary, with expansion during the LIG into the adjacent Amazonian and Atlantic moist forests, as well as connections with other South American savannas. The LGM models suggested a retraction of cerrado vegetation to inter‐tableland depressions and slopes of the Central Brazilian Highlands. Contrary to previous hypotheses, such as the Pleistocene refuge theory, we found that the widest expansion of cerrado tree species seems to have occurred during the LIG, most probably due to its warmer climate. On the other hand, the postulated retractions during the LGM were likely related to both decreased precipitation and temperature. These results are congruent with palynological and phylogeographic studies in the Cerrado Domain.     

Latitudinal Environmental Niches and Riverine Barriers Shaped the Phylogeography of the Central Chilean Endemic Dioscorea humilis (Dioscoreaceae)

The effects of Pleistocene glaciations and geographical barriers on the phylogeographic patterns of lowland plant species in Mediterranean-climate areas of Central Chile are poorly understood. We used Dioscorea humilis (Dioscoreaceae), a dioecious geophyte extending 530 km from the Valparaíso to the Bío-Bío Regions, as a case study to disentangle the spatio-temporal evolution of populations in conjunction with latitudinal environmental changes since the Last Inter-Glacial (LIG) to the present. We used nuclear microsatellite loci, chloroplast (cpDNA) sequences and environmental niche modelling (ENM) to construct current and past scenarios from bioclimatic and geographical variables and to infer the evolutionary history of the taxa. We found strong genetic differentiation at nuclear microsatellite loci between the two subspecies of D. humilis, probably predating the LIG. Bayesian analyses of population structure revealed strong genetic differentiation of the widespread D. humilis subsp. humilis into northern and southern population groups, separated by the Maipo river. ENM revealed that the ecological niche differentiation of both groups have been maintained up to present times although their respective geographical distributions apparently fluctuated in concert with the climatic oscillations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Holocene. Genetic data revealed signatures of eastern and western postglacial expansion of the northern populations from the central Chilean depression, whereas the southern ones experienced a rapid southward expansion after the LGM. This study describes the complex evolutionary histories of lowland Mediterranean Chilean plants mediated by the summed effects of spatial isolation caused by riverine geographical barriers and the climatic changes of the Quaternary.     

Initial diversification,glacial survival,and continuous range expansion of Gentiana straminea (Gentianaceae) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has been considered as one of the most sensitive regions to climate change on Earth, and the growth and distribution of alpine species on this plateau have been suggested to depend greatly on their ability to survive within a small range of temperatures. However, the responses of most species in the QTP to the Quaternary climatic oscillation remain largely unknown. We sequenced two cpDNA fragments and nrITS to examine genetic variations in 22 natural populations across the range of distribution in this region to investigate the phylogeographical distributional pattern of Gentiana straminea (Gentianaceae) in the QTP. The high haplotype diversity from populations on the platform suggested the existence of intraspecific diversification. Molecular dating estimated that all haplotypes have differentiated before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Moreover, the haplotype distribution map based on both cpDNA and nrDNA data suggested expansions from QTP to its outer edges. Finally, ecological niche modeling further demonstrated the glacial survival of this species on the platform and continuous expansion to the platform edge. These findings imply that G. straminea should have experienced initial diversification, glacial survival on the platform, and continuous expansion to the QTP edge during the glacial period.     

Molecular data and ecological niche modelling reveal the Pleistocene history of a semi‐aquatic bug (Microvelia douglasi douglasi) in East Asia

This study investigated the Pleistocene history of a semi‐aquatic bug, Microvelia douglasi douglasi Scott, 1874 (Hemiptera: Veliidae) in East Asia. We used M. douglasi douglasi as a model species to explore the effects of historical climatic fluctuations on montane semi‐aquatic invertebrate species. Two hypotheses were developed using ecological niche models (ENMs). First, we hypothesized that M. douglasi douglasi persisted in suitable habitats in southern Guizhou, southern Yunnan, Hainan, Taiwan and southeast China during the LIG. After that, the populations expanded (Hypothesis 1). As the spatial prediction in the LGM was significantly larger than in the LIG, we then hypothesized that the population expanded during the LIG to LGM transition (Hypothesis 2). We tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial data (COI+COII) and nuclear data (ITS1 + 5.8S+ITS2). Young lineages, relatively deep splits, lineage differentiation among mountain ranges in central, south and southwest China and high genetic diversities were observed in these suitable habitats. Evidence of mismatch distributions and neutrality tests indicate that a population expansion occurred in the late Pleistocene. The Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) revealed an unusual population expansion that likely happened during the cooling transition between LIG and LGM. The results of genetic data were mostly consistent with the spatial predictions from ENM, a finding that can profoundly improve phylogeographic research. The ecological requirements of M. douglasi douglasi, together with the geographical heterogeneity and climatic fluctuations of Pleistocene in East Asia, could have shaped this unusual demographic history. Our study contributes to our knowledge of semi‐aquatic bug/invertebrate responses to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations in East Asia.     

Past,present, and future geographic range of the relict Mediterranean and Macaronesian Juniperus phoenicea complex

AimThe aim of this study is to model the past, current, and future distribution of J. phoenicea s.s., J. turbinata, and J. canariensis, based on bioclimatic variables using a maximum entropy model (Maxent) in the Mediterranean and Macaronesian regions.LocationMediterranean and Macaronesian.TaxonCupressaceae, Juniperus.MethodsData on the occurrence of the J. phoenicea complex were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF.org), the literature, herbaria, and the authors’ field notes. Bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim database and Paleoclim. The climate data related to species localities were used for predictions of niches by implementation of Maxent, and the model was evaluated with ENMeval.ResultsThe potential niches of Juniperus phoenicea during the Last Interglacial period (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum climate (LGM), and Mid‐Holocene (MH) covered 30%, 10%, and almost 100%, respectively, of the current potential niche. Climate warming may reduce potential niches by 30% in RCP2.6 and by 90% in RCP8.5. The potential niches of Juniperus turbinata had a broad circum‐Mediterranean and Canarian distribution during the LIG and the MH; its distribution extended during the LGM when it was found in more areas than at present. The predicted warming in scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 could reduce the current potential niche by 30% and 50%, respectively. The model did not find suitable niches for J. canariensis during the LIG and the LGM, but during the MH its potential niche was 30% larger than at present. The climate warming scenario RCP2.6 indicates a reduction in the potential niche by 30%, while RCP8.5 so indicates a reduction of almost 60%.Main conclusionsThis research can provide information for increasing the protection of the juniper forest and for counteracting the phenomenon of local extinctions caused by anthropic pressure and climate changes.     

Uncommon paleodistribution patterns of Chrysolophus pheasants in east Asia: explanations and implications

Some modeling studies indicated that the past distributions of species in east Asia during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) periods differ from those of European and North American species and the deviant Asian distribution pattern is known under the term ‘pre‐LGM expansion’. It represents the unusually similar distribution patterns between the current and the LGM scenario. However, there is still no satisfying explanation for this phenomenon so far. Therefore, we took the two recently separated pheasant species of genus Chrysolophus in east Asia as an example to test the pattern by performing ecological niche models. The main findings of this study include: 1) the paleodistributions of these two pheasants also corresponded to the ‘pre‐LGM expansion’ pattern; 2) climatic similarity results from mobility‐oriented parity analysis also revealed similar pattern for both species; 3) climate regimes of east Asia showed patterns different from those in Europe and North America in a climate shift towards drier conditions and stronger seasonality and to more extreme temperatures of the coldest months particularly during the LIG; 4) the two Chrysolophus species occupied significantly different ecological niches according to current distribution. We suggest that ecological segregation established in allopatric glacial refugia should be the main determinants for the separation of two Chrysolophus species until they came into extant post‐Pleistocene contact.     

Historic range dynamics in Kaiser's mountain newt (Neurergus kaiseri): Insights from phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modeling

Vulnerable Kaiser''s mountain newt, Neurergus kaiseri, is endemic to highland streams, springs, and pools of the southwestern Zagros mountain, Iran. The present study aimed to use an integration of phylogeographical and species distribution modeling (SDM) approaches to provide new insights into the evolutionary history of the species throughout Quaternary climate oscillations. The phylogeographical analysis was followed by analyzing two mitochondrial DNA (mt‐DNA) markers including 127 control region (D‐loop) and 72 NADH dehydrogenase 2 (ND2) sequences from 15 populations in the entire species range that were obtained from GenBank. Potential recent and past distribution (the Last Glacial Maximum, LGM, 21 Kya and the Mid‐Holocene, 6 Kya) reconstructed by ensemble SDM using nine algorithms with CCSM4, MIROC‐ESM, and MPI‐ESM‐P models. N. kaiseri displayed two distinct lineages in the northern and southern regions that diverged in the Early‐Pleistocene. The demographics analysis showed signs of a slight increase in effective population size for both northern and southern populations in the Mid‐Pleistocene. Biogeography analysis showed that both vicariance and dispersal events played an important role in the formation of recent species distribution of N. kaiseri. Based on SDM projection onto paleoclimatic data, N. kaiseri displayed a scenario of past range expansion that followed by postglacial contraction. The models showed that the distribution range of the species may have shifted to a lower altitude during LGM while with amelioration of climatic during Mid‐Holocene to recent conditions caused the species to shift to the higher altitude. The findings of the current study support the hypothesis that the Zagros mountains​ may be acting as climatic refugia and play an important role in the protection of isolated populations during climate oscillations.     

Climate,physiological tolerance and sex‐biased dispersal shape genetic structure of Neotropical orchid bees

Understanding the impact of past climatic events on the demographic history of extant species is critical for predicting species' responses to future climate change. Palaeoclimatic instability is a major mechanism of lineage diversification in taxa with low dispersal and small geographical ranges in tropical ecosystems. However, the impact of these climatic events remains questionable for the diversification of species with high levels of gene flow and large geographical distributions. In this study, we investigate the impact of Pleistocene climate change on three Neotropical orchid bee species (Eulaema bombiformis, E. meriana and E. cingulata) with transcontinental distributions and different physiological tolerances. We first generated ecological niche models to identify species‐specific climatically stable areas during Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Using a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear markers, we inferred calibrated phylogenies and estimated historical demographic parameters to reconstruct the phylogeographical history of each species. Our results indicate species with narrower physiological tolerance experienced less suitable habitat during glaciations and currently exhibit strong population structure in the mitochondrial genome. However, nuclear markers with low and high mutation rates show lack of association with geography. These results combined with lower migration rate estimates from the mitochondrial than the nuclear genome suggest male‐biased dispersal. We conclude that despite large effective population sizes and capacity for long‐distance dispersal, climatic instability is an important mechanism of maternal lineage diversification in orchid bees. Thus, these Neotropical pollinators are susceptible to disruption of genetic connectivity in the event of large‐scale climatic changes.     

Interglacial refugia preserved high genetic diversity of the Chinese mole shrew in the mountains of southwest China

The mountains of southwest China (MSC) harbor extremely high species diversity; however, the mechanism behind this diversity is unknown. We investigated to what degree the topography and climate change shaped the genetic diversity and diversification in these mountains, and we also sought to identify the locations of microrefugia areas in these mountains. For these purposes, we sampled extensively to estimate the intraspecific phylogenetic pattern of the Chinese mole shrew (Anourosorex squamipes) in southwest China throughout its range of distribution. Two mitochondrial genes, namely, cytochrome b (CYT B) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 (ND2), from 383 archived specimens from 43 localities were determined for phylogeographic and demographic analyses. We used the continuous-diffusion phylogeographic model, extensive Bayesian skyline plot species distribution modeling (SDM) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to explore the changes in population size and distribution through time of the species. Two phylogenetic clades were identified, and significantly higher genetic diversity was preserved in the southern subregion of the mountains. The results of the SDM, continuous-diffusion phylogeographic model, extensive Bayesian skyline plot and ABC analyses were congruent and supported that the Last Interglacial Maximum (LIG) was an unfavorable period for the mole shrews because of a high degree of seasonality; A. squamipes survived in isolated interglacial refugia mainly located in the southern subregion during the LIG and rapidly expanded during the last glacial period. These results furnished the first evidence for major Pleistocene interglacial refugia and a latitudinal effect in southwest China, and the results shedding light on the higher level of species richness in the southern subregion.     

Genetic diversity and ecological niche modelling of the restricted Recordia reitzii (Verbenaceae) from southern Brazilian Atlantic forest

Genetic diversity analyses, coupled with ecological niche modelling (ENM) of species with a restricted distribution, may provide valuable information for understanding diversification patterns in endangered areas. We analyzed the genetic diversity of Recordia reitzii, a tree restricted to the threatened and highly fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest, using three intergenic cpDNA spacers and ten microsatellite (SSR) loci. To assess the historical processes that may have influenced the distribution of extant R. reitzii populations, the current potential distributions of R. reitzii and Recordia boliviana, a closely related species, were modelled and projected onto the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. Niche divergence was quantified between these two. The cpDNA and SSR data showed a north–south pattern of the diversity distribution and structured populations, suggesting that gene flow is probably limited. According to our data, R. reitzii exhibits low genetic diversity, which may be a result of a founder or distribution‐reduction effect, narrow distribution or small population size. The ecological niche models showed a wider palaeodistribution during the LIG and a retraction during the LGM for both species. Tests of niche divergence and conservatism indicated that bioclimatic factors might have influenced the diversification of these Recordia species. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176 , 332–348.     

Postglacial northward expansion and genetic differentiation between migratory and sedentary populations of the broad‐tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus)

Unlike other migratory hummingbirds in North America, the broad‐tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus) exhibits both long‐distance migratory behaviour in the USA and sedentary behaviour in Mexico and Guatemala. We examined the evolution of migration linked to its northward expansion using a multiperspective approach. We analysed variation in morphology, mitochondrial and nuclear DNA, estimated migration rates between migratory and sedentary populations, compared divergence times with the occurrence of Quaternary climate events and constructed species distribution models to predict where migratory and sedentary populations resided during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Last Interglacial (LIG) events. Our results are consistent with a recent northward population expansion driven by migration from southern sedentary populations. Phylogeographical analyses and population genetics methods revealed that migratory populations in the USA and sedentary populations in Mexico of the platycercus subspecies form one admixed population, and that sedentary populations from southern Mexico and Guatemala (guatemalae) undertook independent evolutionary trajectories. Species distribution modelling revealed that the species is a niche tracker and that the climate conditions associated with modern obligate migrants in the USA were not present during the LIG, which provides indirect evidence for recent migratory behaviour in broad‐tailed hummingbirds on the temporal scale of glacial cycles. The finding that platycercus hummingbirds form one genetic population and that suitable habitat for migratory populations was observed in eastern Mexico during the LIG also suggests that the conservation of overwintering sites is crucial for obligate migratory populations currently facing climate change effects.     

Genetic and paleomodelling evidence of the population expansion of the cattle egret Bubulcus ibis in Africa during the climatic oscillations of the Late Pleistocene

Increasing aridity during glacial periods produced the retraction of forests and the expansion of arid and semi‐arid environments in Africa, with consequences for birds. Cattle egret Bubulcus ibis is a dispersive species that prefers semi‐arid environments and requires proximity to bodies of water. We expected that climatic oscillations led to the expansion of the range of the cattle egret during arid periods, such as the Last Maximum Glacial (LGM) and contraction of distribution during the Last Interglacial (LIG) period, resulting in contact of populations previously isolated. We investigated this hypothesis by evaluating the genetic structure and population history of 15 cattle egret breeding colonies located in west and South Africa using the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region, mtDNA ATPase 8 and 6, and an intron of nuclear gene transforming growth factor‐beta 2. Occurrence data and bioclimatic information were used to generate ecological niche models of three periods (present, LGM and LIG). We used the genetic and paleomodelling data to assess the responses of the cattle egret from Africa to the climatic oscillations during the late Pleistocene. Genetic data revealed low levels of genetic differentiation, signs of isolation‐by‐distance, as well as recent increases in effective population size that started during the LGM. The observed low genetic structure may be explained by recent colonization events due to the demographic expansion following the last glacial period and by dispersal capacity of this species. The paleomodels corroborated the expansion during the LGM, and a more restricted potential distribution during the LIG. Our findinds supports the hypothesis that the species range of the cattle egret expanded during arid periods and contracted during wet periods.     

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak,Quercus lobata Née

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate‐based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large‐scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28–1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11–18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion–contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.     

Pleistocene climate changes shaped the divergence and demography of Asian populations of the great tit Parus major: evidence from phylogeographic analysis and ecological niche models

Different scales and frequencies of glaciations developed in Europe and Asia during the Pleistocene. Because species’ responses to climate change are influenced by interactive factors including ecology and local topography, the pattern and tempo of species diversification may vary significantly across regions. The great tit Parus major is a widespread Eurasian passerine with a range that encircles the central Asian desert and high‐altitude areas of the Tibetan Plateau. A number of genetic studies have assessed the effect of paleo‐climate changes on the distribution of the European population. However, none have comprehensively addressed how paleo‐climate change affected the distribution of the great tit in China, an apparent hotspot of P. major subspecific diversity. Here, we describe likely paleo‐climatic effects on P. major populations in China based on a combination of phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 28 populations (213 individuals), and downloaded 112 sequences from outside its Chinese range. As the first step in clarifying the intra‐specific relationships among haplotypes, we attempted to clarify the divergence and demography of populations in China. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that P. major is comprised of five highly divergent clades with geographic breaks corresponding to steep mountains and dry deserts. A previously undescribed monophyletic clade with high genetic diversity, stable niches and a long and independent evolutionary history was detected in the mountainous areas of southwest China. The estimated times at which these clades diverged was traced back to the Early‐Middle Pleistocene (2.19–0.61 mya). Contrary to the post‐LGM (the Last Glacial Maximum) expansion of European populations, demographic history indicates that Asian populations expanded before the LGM after which they remained relatively stable or grew slowly through the LGM. ENMs support this conclusion and predict a similar distribution in the present and the LGM. Our genetic and ecological results demonstrate that Pleistocene climate changes shaped the divergence and demography of P. major in China.     

Refugia and geographic barriers of populations of the desert poppy, Hunnemannia fumariifolia (Papaveraceae)

Phylogeographic data and divergence estimation times as well as current and past ecological niche modeling for the Mexican tulip poppy, Hunnemannia fumariifolia Sweet, were combined in order to understand its biogeographic history. Divergence times were estimated to determine if divergence occurred during the Pleistocene. Ecological niche modelling was used to determine if the last glacial maximum (LGM) was responsible for the southward movement of poppy populations into the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley. Analyses were performed to detect any geographical barriers that might have caused genetic discontinuities among populations across the entire range of distribution. Current and Pleistocene ecological niche models were created for H. fumariifolia using eight environmental variables derived from temperature and precipitation. The evidence shows that divergence of the three main clades in H. fumariifolia occurred from the Early Pleistocene to Mid-Miocene. It was also found that gene flow between the populations of H. fumariifolia could have been limited by the LGM, by climate change during the Quaternary, and by the complex topography of the Sierra Madre Oriental and the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Furthermore, all of these processes may have resulted in the patchy distribution of suitable microhabitats for H. fumariifolia in its geographical range. Ecological niche models constructed using the MIROC3 model indicated that populations did not move to the north but rather that they had suitable ecological habitats in the Chihuahuan Desert, which harbored Pinus-Juniperus forests during that period.     

Long-Distance Dispersal after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Led to the Disjunctive Distribution of Pedicularis kansuensis (Orobanchaceae) between the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Tianshan Region

Quaternary climate fluctuations have profoundly affected the current distribution patterns and genetic structures of many plant and animal species in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and adjacent mountain ranges, e.g. Tianshan (TSR), Altay, etc. In this greater area disjunct distributions are prominent but have nevertheless received little attention with respect to the historical processes involved. Here, we focus on Pedicularis kansuensis to test whether the current QTP and TSR disjunction is the result of a recent Holocene range expansion involving dispersal across arid land bridge(s) or a Pleistocene range fragmentation involving persistence in refugia. Two chloroplast DNA spacers were sequenced for 319 individuals from 34 populations covering the entire distribution range of this species in China. We found a total of 17 haplotypes of which all occurred in the QTP, and only five in the TSR. Overall genetic diversity was high (H_T = 0.882, H_S = 0.559) and higher in the QTP than in the TSR. Genetic differentiation among regions and populations was relatively low (G_ST = 0.366) and little evidence for a phylogeographic pattern emerged. The divergence times for the four main lineages could be dated to the early Pleistocene. Surprisingly, the two ubiquitous haplotypes diverged just before or around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and were found in different phylogenetic lineages. The Species Distribution Model suggested a disappearance of P. kansuensis from the TSR during the LGM in contrast to a relatively constant potential distribution in the QTP. We conclude that P. kansuensis colonized the TSR after the LGM. The improbable long-distance dispersal by wind or water across arid land seed flow may well have had birds or men as vector.     

Coupling Genetic and Species Distribution Models to Examine the Response of the Hainan Partridge (Arborophila ardens) to Late Quaternary Climate

Understanding the historical dynamics of animal species is critical for accurate prediction of their response to climate changes. During the late Quaternary period, Southeast Asia had a larger land area than today due to lower sea levels, and its terrestrial landscape was covered by extensive forests and savanna. To date, however, the distribution fluctuation of vegetation and its impacts on genetic structure and demographic history of local animals during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are still disputed. In addition, the responses of animal species on Hainan Island, located in northern Southeast Asia, to climate changes during the LGM are poorly understood. Here, we combined phylogeographic analysis, paleoclimatic evidence, and species distribution models to examine the response of the flightless Hainan Partridge (Arborophila ardens) to climate change. We concluded that A. ardens survived through LGM climate changes, and its current distribution on Hainan Island was its in situ refuge. Range model results indicated that A. ardens once covered a much larger area than its current distribution. Demographic history described a relatively stable pattern during and following the LGM. In addition, weak population genetic structure suggests a role in promoting gene flow between populations with climate-induced elevation shifts. Human activities must be considered in conservation planning due to their impact on fragmented habitats. These first combined data for Hainan Partridge demonstrate the value of paired genetic and SDMs study. More related works that might deepen our understanding of the responses of the species in Southeast Asia to late Quaternary Climate are needed.     

Palaeodistribution modelling and genetic evidence highlight differential post‐glacial range shifts of a rain forest conifer distributed across a latitudinal gradient

Aim We examine the range expansion/contraction dynamics during the last glacial cycle of the late‐successional tropical rain forest conifer Podocarpus elatus using a combination of modelling and molecular marker analyses. Specifically, we test whether distributional changes predicted by environmental niche modelling are in agreement with (1) the glacial maximum contractions inferred from the southern fossil record, and (2) population genetic‐based estimates of range disjunctions and demographic dynamics. In addition, we test whether northern and southern ranges are likely to have experienced similar expansion/contraction dynamics. Location Eastern Australian tropical and subtropical rain forests. Methods Environmental niche modelling was completed for three time periods during the last glacial cycle and was interpreted in light of the known palynology. We collected 109 samples from 32 populations across the entire range of P. elatus. Six microsatellite loci and Bayesian coalescence analysis were used to infer population expansion/contraction dynamics, and five sequenced loci (one plastid and four nuclear) were used to quantify genetic structure/diversity. Results Environmental niche modelling suggested that the northern and southern ranges of P. elatus experienced different expansion/contraction dynamics. In the northern range, the habitat suitable for P. elatus persisted in a small refugial area during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka) and then expanded during the post‐glacial period. Conversely, in the south suitable habitat was widespread during the LGM but subsequently contracted. These differential dynamics were supported by Bayesian analyses of the population genetic data (northern dispersal) and are consistent with the greater genetic diversity in the south compared with the north. A contact zone between the two genetically divergent groups (corresponding to the Macleay Overlap Zone) was supported by environmental niche modelling and molecular analyses. Main conclusions The climatic fluctuations of the Quaternary have differentially impacted the northern and southern ranges of a broadly distributed rain forest tree in Australia. Recurrent contraction/expansion cycles contributed to the genetic distinction between northern and southern distributions of P. elatus. By combining molecular and environmental niche modelling evidence, this unique study undermines the general assumption that broadly distributed species respond in a uniform way to climate change.