The Effects of Demography and Long-Term Selection on the Accuracy of Genomic Prediction with Sequence Data

The use of dense SNPs to predict the genetic value of an individual for a complex trait is often referred to as “genomic selection” in livestock and crops, but is also relevant to human genetics to predict, for example, complex genetic disease risk. The accuracy of prediction depends on the strength of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and causal mutations. If sequence data were used instead of dense SNPs, accuracy should increase because causal mutations are present, but demographic history and long-term negative selection also influence accuracy. We therefore evaluated genomic prediction, using simulated sequence in two contrasting populations: one reducing from an ancestrally large effective population size (N_e) to a small one, with high LD common in domestic livestock, while the second had a large constant-sized N_e with low LD similar to that in some human or outbred plant populations. There were two scenarios in each population; causal variants were either neutral or under long-term negative selection. For large N_e, sequence data led to a 22% increase in accuracy relative to ∼600K SNP chip data with a Bayesian analysis and a more modest advantage with a BLUP analysis. This advantage increased when causal variants were influenced by negative selection, and accuracy persisted when 10 generations separated reference and validation populations. However, in the reducing N_e population, there was little advantage for sequence even with negative selection. This study demonstrates the joint influence of demography and selection on accuracy of prediction and improves our understanding of how best to exploit sequence for genomic prediction.     

Rates of transposition in Escherichia coli

The evolutionary role of transposable elements (TEs) is still highly controversial. Two key parameters, the transposition rate (u and w, for replicative and non-replicative transposition) and the excision rate (e) are fundamental to understanding their evolution and maintenance in populations. We have estimated u, w and e for six families of TEs (including eight members: IS1, IS2, IS3, IS4, IS5, IS30, IS150 and IS186) in Escherichia coli, using a mutation accumulation (MA) experiment. In this experiment, mutations accumulate essentially at the rate at which they appear, during a period of 80 500 (1610 generations × 50 lines) generations, and spontaneous transposition events can be detected. This differs from other experiments in which insertions accumulated under strong selective pressure or over a limited genomic target. We therefore provide new estimates for the spontaneous rates of transposition and excision in E. coli. We observed 25 transposition and three excision events in 50 MA lines, leading to overall rate estimates of u ∼ 1.15 × 10^–5, w ∼ 4 × 10⁻⁸ and e ∼ 1.08 × 10⁻⁶ (per element, per generation). Furthermore, extensive variation between elements was found, consistent with previous knowledge of the mechanisms and regulation of transposition for the different elements.     

The Evolution of Selfing Is Accompanied by Reduced Efficacy of Selection and Purging of Deleterious Mutations

The transition from outcrossing to selfing is predicted to reduce the genome-wide efficacy of selection because of the lower effective population size (N_e) that accompanies this change in mating system. However, strongly recessive deleterious mutations exposed in the homozygous backgrounds of selfers should be under strong purifying selection. Here, we examine estimates of the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) and changes in the magnitude of effective selection coefficients (N_es) acting on mutations during the transition from outcrossing to selfing. Using forward simulations, we investigated the ability of a DFE inference approach to detect the joint influence of mating system and the dominance of deleterious mutations on selection efficacy. We investigated predictions from our simulations in the annual plant Eichhornia paniculata, in which selfing has evolved from outcrossing on multiple occasions. We used range-wide sampling to generate population genomic datasets and identified nonsynonymous and synonymous polymorphisms segregating in outcrossing and selfing populations. We found that the transition to selfing was accompanied by a change in the DFE, with a larger fraction of effectively neutral sites (N_es < 1), a result consistent with the effects of reduced N_e in selfers. Moreover, an increased proportion of sites in selfers were under strong purifying selection (N_es > 100), and simulations suggest that this is due to the exposure of recessive deleterious mutations. We conclude that the transition to selfing has been accompanied by the genome-wide influences of reduced N_e and strong purifying selection against deleterious recessive mutations, an example of purging at the molecular level.     

Inferences of Demography and Selection in an African Population of Drosophila melanogaster

It remains a central problem in population genetics to infer the past action of natural selection, and these inferences pose a challenge because demographic events will also substantially affect patterns of polymorphism and divergence. Thus it is imperative to explicitly model the underlying demographic history of the population whenever making inferences about natural selection. In light of the considerable interest in adaptation in African populations of Drosophila melanogaster, which are considered ancestral to the species, we generated a large polymorphism data set representing 2.1 Mb from each of 20 individuals from a Ugandan population of D. melanogaster. In contrast to previous inferences of a simple population expansion in eastern Africa, our demographic modeling of this ancestral population reveals a strong signature of a population bottleneck followed by population expansion, which has significant implications for future demographic modeling of derived populations of this species. Taking this more complex underlying demographic history into account, we also estimate a mean X-linked region-wide rate of adaptation of 6 × 10⁻¹¹/site/generation and a mean selection coefficient of beneficial mutations of 0.0009. These inferences regarding the rate and strength of selection are largely consistent with most other estimates from D. melanogaster and indicate a relatively high rate of adaptation driven by weakly beneficial mutations.     

An evolutionary maximum principle for density-dependent population dynamics in a fluctuating environment

The evolution of population dynamics in a stochastic environment is analysed under a general form of density-dependence with genetic variation in r and K, the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, and in σ_e², the environmental variance of population growth rate. The continuous-time model assumes a large population size and a stationary distribution of environments with no autocorrelation. For a given population density, N, and genotype frequency, p, the expected selection gradient is always towards an increased population growth rate, and the expected fitness of a genotype is its Malthusian fitness in the average environment minus the covariance of its growth rate with that of the population. Long-term evolution maximizes the expected value of the density-dependence function, averaged over the stationary distribution of N. In the θ-logistic model, where density dependence of population growth is a function of N^θ, long-term evolution maximizes E[N^θ]=[1−σ_e²/(2r)]K^θ. While σ_e² is always selected to decrease, r and K are always selected to increase, implying a genetic trade-off among them. By contrast, given the other parameters, θ has an intermediate optimum between 1.781 and 2 corresponding to the limits of high or low stochasticity.     

A century-long genetic record reveals that protist effective population sizes are comparable to those of macroscopic species

Effective population size (N_e) determines the rate of genetic drift and the relative influence of selection over random genetic changes. While free-living protist populations characteristically consist of huge numbers of cells (N), the absence of any estimates of contemporary N_e raises the question whether protist effective population sizes are comparably large. Using microsatellite genotype data of strains derived from revived cysts of the marine dinoflagellate Pentapharsodinium dalei from sections of a sediment record that spanned some 100 years, we present the first estimates of contemporary N_e for a local population in a free-living protist. The estimates of N_e are relatively small, of the order of a few 100 individuals, and thus are similar in magnitude to values of N_e reported for multicellular animals: the implications are that N_e of P. dalei is of many orders of magnitude lower than the number of cells present (N_e/N ∼ 10⁻¹²) and that stochastic genetic processes may be more prevalent in protist populations than previously anticipated.     

Mating systems and predictors of relative reproductive success in a Cutthroat Trout subspecies of conservation concern

Mating systems and patterns of reproductive success in fishes play an important role in ecology and evolution. While information on the reproductive ecology of many anadromous salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) is well detailed, there is less information for nonanadromous species including the Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout (O. clarkii bouvieri), a subspecies of recreational angling importance and conservation concern. Using data from a parentage‐based tagging study, we described the genetic mating system of a migratory population of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout, tested for evidence of sexual selection, and identified predictors of mating and reproductive success. The standardized variance in mating success (i.e., opportunity for sexual selection) was significantly greater for males relative to females, and while the relationship between mating success and reproductive success (i.e., Bateman gradient) was significantly positive for both sexes, a greater proportion of reproductive success was explained by mating success for males (r ² = 0.80) than females (r ² = 0.59). Overall, the population displayed a polygynandrous mating system, whereby both sexes experienced variation in mating success due to multiple mating, and sexual selection was variable across sexes. Tests for evidence of sexual selection indicated the interaction between mating success and total length best‐predicted relative reproductive success. We failed to detect a signal of inbreeding avoidance among breeding adults, but the group of parents that produced progeny were on average slightly less related than adults that did not produce progeny. Lastly, we estimated the effective number of breeders (N _b) and effective population size (N _e) and identified while N _b was lower than N _e, both are sufficiently high to suggest Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout in Burns Creek represent a genetically stable and diverse population.     

Coupling Demographic and Genetic Variability from Archived Collections of European Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus)

It is well known that temporal fluctuations in small populations deeply influence evolutionary potential. Less well known is whether fluctuations can influence the evolutionary potentials of species with large census sizes. Here, we estimated genetic population parameters from as survey of polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci in archived otoliths from Adriatic European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), a fish with large census sizes that supports numerous local fisheries. Stocks have fluctuated greatly over the past few decades, and the Adriatic fishery collapsed in 1987. Our results show a significant reduction of mean genetic parameters as a consequence of the population collapse. In addition, estimates of effective population size (N_e) are much smaller than those expected in a fishes with large population census sizes (N_c). Estimates of N_e indicate low effective population sizes, even before the population collapse. The ratio N_e/N_e ranged between 10⁻⁶ and 10⁻⁸, indicating a large discrepancy between the anchovy gene pool and population census size. Therefore, anchovy populations may be more vulnerable to fishery effort and environmental change than previously thought.     

Iron defecation by sperm whales stimulates carbon export in the Southern Ocean

The iron-limited Southern Ocean plays an important role in regulating atmospheric CO₂ levels. Marine mammal respiration has been proposed to decrease the efficiency of the Southern Ocean biological pump by returning photosynthetically fixed carbon to the atmosphere. Here, we show that by consuming prey at depth and defecating iron-rich liquid faeces into the photic zone, sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) instead stimulate new primary production and carbon export to the deep ocean. We estimate that Southern Ocean sperm whales defecate 50 tonnes of iron into the photic zone each year. Molar ratios of C_export ∶Fe_added determined during natural ocean fertilization events are used to estimate the amount of carbon exported to the deep ocean in response to the iron defecated by sperm whales. We find that Southern Ocean sperm whales stimulate the export of 4 × 10⁵ tonnes of carbon per year to the deep ocean and respire only 2 × 10⁵ tonnes of carbon per year. By enhancing new primary production, the populations of 12 000 sperm whales in the Southern Ocean act as a carbon sink, removing 2 × 10⁵ tonnes more carbon from the atmosphere than they add during respiration. The ability of the Southern Ocean to act as a carbon sink may have been diminished by large-scale removal of sperm whales during industrial whaling.     

Taking multiple infections of cells and recombination into account leads to small within-host effective-population-size estimates of HIV-1

Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, N_e, are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate N_e∼10²–10⁴, smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (∼10⁵), implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates N_e>10⁵, suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate N_e∼10³–10⁴, implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that N_e and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of N_e>10⁵ reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with N_e∼10³–10⁴ may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence.     

Sensitivity of Plasmodium falciparum to Antimalarial Drugs in Hainan Island,China

Pyronaridine and artesunate have been shown to be effective in falciparum malaria treatment. However, pyronaridine is rarely used in Hainan Island clinically, and artesunate is not widely used as a therapeutic agent. Instead, conventional antimalarial drugs, chloroquine and piperaquine, are used, explaining the emergence of chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium falciparum. In this article, we investigated the sensitivity of P. falciparum to antimalarial drugs used in Hainan Island for rational drug therapy. We performed in vivo (28 days) and in vitro tests to determine the sensitivity of P. falciparum to antimalarial drugs. Total 46 patients with falciparum malaria were treated with dihydroartemisinin/piperaquine phosphate (DUO-COTECXIN) and followed up for 28 day. The cure rate was 97.8%. The mean fever clearance time (22.5±10.6 hr) and the mean parasite clearance time (27.3±12.2 hr) showed no statistical significance with different genders, ages, temperatures, or parasite density (P>0.05). The resistance rates of chloroquine, piperaquine, pyronarididine, and artesunate detected in vitro were 71.9%, 40.6%, 12.5%, and 0%, respectively (P<0.0001). The resistance intensities decreased as follows: chloroquine>piperaquine>pyronarididine>artesunate. The inhibitory dose 50 (IC₅₀) was 3.77×10^-6 mol/L, 2.09×10^-6 mol/L, 0.09×10^-6 mol/L, and 0.05×10^-6 mol/L, and the mean concentrations for complete inhibition (CIMC) of schizont formation were 5.60×10^-6 mol/L, 9.26×10^-6 mol/L, 0.55×10^-6 mol/L, and 0.07×10^-6 mol/L, respectively. Dihydroartemisinin showed a strong therapeutic effect against falciparum malaria with a low toxicity.     

The Strength of Selection Against the Yeast Prion [PSI+]

The [PSI⁺] prion causes widespread readthrough translation and is rare in natural populations of Saccharomyces, despite the fact that sex is expected to cause it to spread. Using the recently estimated rate of Saccharomyces outcrossing, we calculate the strength of selection necessary to maintain [PSI⁺] at levels low enough to be compatible with data. Using the best available parameter estimates, we find selection against [PSI⁺] to be significant. Inference regarding selection on modifiers of [PSI⁺] appearance depends on obtaining more precise and accurate estimates of the product of yeast effective population size N_e and the spontaneous rate of [PSI⁺] appearance m. The ability to form [PSI⁺] has persisted in yeast over a long period of evolutionary time, despite a diversity of modifiers that could abolish it. If mN_e < 1, this may be explained by insufficiently strong selection. If mN_e > 1, then selection should favor the spread of [PSI⁺] resistance modifiers. In this case, rare conditions where [PSI⁺] is adaptive may permit its persistence in the face of negative selection.     

Trans-ancestral fine-mapping of MHC reveals key amino acids associated with spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C in HLA-DQβ1

Spontaneous clearance of acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on the MHC class II. We fine-mapped the MHC region in European (n = 1,600; 594 HCV clearance/1,006 HCV persistence) and African (n = 1,869; 340 HCV clearance/1,529 HCV persistence) ancestry individuals and evaluated HCV peptide binding affinity of classical alleles. In both populations, HLA-DQβ1Leu26 (p value_Meta = 1.24 × 10⁻¹⁴) located in pocket 4 was negatively associated with HCV spontaneous clearance and HLA-DQβ1Pro55 (p value_Meta = 8.23 × 10⁻¹¹) located in the peptide binding region was positively associated, independently of HLA-DQβ1Leu26. These two amino acids are not in linkage disequilibrium (r² < 0.1) and explain the SNPs and classical allele associations represented by rs2647011, rs9274711, HLA-DQB1^∗03:01, and HLA-DRB1^∗01:01. Additionally, HCV persistence classical alleles tagged by HLA-DQβ1Leu26 had fewer HCV binding epitopes and lower predicted binding affinities compared to clearance alleles (geometric mean of combined IC₅₀ nM of persistence versus clearance; 2,321 nM versus 761.7 nM, p value = 1.35 × 10⁻³⁸). In summary, MHC class II fine-mapping revealed key amino acids in HLA-DQβ1 explaining allelic and SNP associations with HCV outcomes. This mechanistic advance in understanding of natural recovery and immunogenetics of HCV might set the stage for much needed enhancement and design of vaccine to promote spontaneous clearance of HCV infection.     

Heritability and quantitative genetic divergence of serotiny,a fire-persistence plant trait

Background and Aims

Although it is well known that fire acts as a selective pressure shaping plant phenotypes, there are no quantitative estimates of the heritability of any trait related to plant persistence under recurrent fires, such as serotiny. In this study, the heritability of serotiny in Pinus halepensis is calculated, and an evaluation is made as to whether fire has left a selection signature on the level of serotiny among populations by comparing the genetic divergence of serotiny with the expected divergence of neutral molecular markers (Q_ST–F_ST comparison).

Methods

A common garden of P. halepensis was used, located in inland Spain and composed of 145 open-pollinated families from 29 provenances covering the entire natural range of P. halepensis in the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands. Narrow-sense heritability (h²) and quantitative genetic differentiation among populations for serotiny (Q_ST) were estimated by means of an ‘animal model’ fitted by Bayesian inference. In order to determine whether genetic differentiation for serotiny is the result of differential natural selection, Q_ST estimates for serotiny were compared with F_ST estimates obtained from allozyme data. Finally, a test was made of whether levels of serotiny in the different provenances were related to different fire regimes, using summer rainfall as a proxy for fire regime in each provenance.

Key Results

Serotiny showed a significant narrow-sense heritability (h²) of 0·20 (credible interval 0·09–0·40). Quantitative genetic differentiation among provenances for serotiny (Q_ST = 0·44) was significantly higher than expected under a neutral process (F_ST = 0·12), suggesting adaptive differentiation. A significant negative relationship was found between the serotiny level of trees in the common garden and summer rainfall of their provenance sites.

Conclusions

Serotiny is a heritable trait in P. halepensis, and selection acts on it, giving rise to contrasting serotiny levels among populations depending on the fire regime, and supporting the role of fire in generating genetic divergence for adaptive traits.     

Comparative karyotype analysis of populations in the Alstroemeria presliana Herbert (Alstroemeriaceae) complex in Chile

Alstroemeria L., one of the most diverse genera of the Chilean flora and of high floricultural value, is represented by 35 species, most of them distributed between 28–38° S in the Mediterranean zone of Central Chile. There are 24 complex-forming taxa, of which 18 have conservation problems (8 are considered “endangered” and 10 as “vulnerable”). One of these complexes is Alstroemeria presliana Herb. with two subspecies: subsp. presliana and subsp. australis Bayer. Alstroemeria presliana grows in Chile and Argentina: subsp. presliana is distributed from Reserva Nacional Siete Tazas (35°27′ S, Region of Maule) to Antuco, (37°25′ S, Region of Bío-Bío), and is also found in Neuquén, Argentina; subsp. australis is endemic to the Cordillera of Nahuelbuta. A comparative karyotype study was carried out among six populations of A. presliana subsp. presliana and five populations of A. presliana subsp. australis. The eleven populations presented an asymmetric karyotype, with 2n = 2× = 16 chromosomes but with different karyotype formulae. A. presliana subsp. presliana shows the haploid formula 2m + 2m-sat + 1sm-sat + 1st-sat + 1t + 1 t-sat, and A. preslianasubsp. australis presents a formula 1m + 2m-sat + 1sm + 2t + 2t-sat chromosomes. The architecture of the karyotype between the subspecies is very different. The scatter plot among CV_CL vs. M_CA shows different groupings between populations of the two subspecies. According to the results obtained it is possible to consider raising Alstroemeria presliana subsp. australis at species level.     

Voltage Gating of Shaker K+ Channels : The Effect of Temperature on Ionic and Gating Currents

Ionic (I_i) and gating currents (I_g) from noninactivating Shaker H4 K⁺ channels were recorded with the cut-open oocyte voltage clamp and macropatch techniques. Steady state and kinetic properties were studied in the temperature range 2–22°C. The time course of I_i elicited by large depolarizations consists of an initial delay followed by an exponential rise with two kinetic components. The main I_i component is highly temperature dependent (Q₁₀ > 4) and mildly voltage dependent, having a valence times the fraction of electric field (z) of 0.2–0.3 e_o. The I_g On response obtained between −60 and 20 mV consists of a rising phase followed by a decay with fast and slow kinetic components. The main I_g component of decay is highly temperature dependent (Q₁₀ > 4) and has a z between 1.6 and 2.8 e_o in the voltage range from −60 to −10 mV, and ∼0.45 e_o at more depolarized potentials. After a pulse to 0 mV, a variable recovery period at −50 mV reactivates the gating charge with a high temperature dependence (Q₁₀ > 4). In contrast, the reactivation occurring between −90 and −50 mV has a Q₁₀ = 1.2. Fluctuation analysis of ionic currents reveals that the open probability decreases 20% between 18 and 8°C and the unitary conductance has a low temperature dependence with a Q₁₀ of 1.44. Plots of conductance and gating charge displacement are displaced to the left along the voltage axis when the temperature is decreased. The temperature data suggests that activation consists of a series of early steps with low enthalpic and negative entropic changes, followed by at least one step with high enthalpic and positive entropic changes, leading to final transition to the open state, which has a negative entropic change.     

Preferred habitat and effective population size drive landscape genetic patterns in an endangered species

Landscape genetics provides a framework for pinpointing environmental features that determine the important exchange of migrants among populations. These studies usually test the significance of environmental variables on gene flow, yet ignore one fundamental driver of genetic variation in small populations, effective population size, N_e. We combined both approaches in evaluating genetic connectivity of a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou. We used least-cost paths to calculate matrices of resistance distance for landscape variables (preferred habitat, anthropogenic features and predation risk) and population-pairwise harmonic means of N_e, and correlated them with genetic distances, F_ST and D_c. Results showed that spatial configuration of preferred habitat and N_e were the two best predictors of genetic relationships. Additionally, controlling for the effect of N_e increased the strength of correlations of environmental variables with genetic distance, highlighting the significant underlying effect of N_e in modulating genetic drift and perceived spatial connectivity. We therefore have provided empirical support to emphasize preventing increased habitat loss and promoting population growth to ensure metapopulation viability.