Climate and the Timing of Imported Cases as Determinants of the Dengue Outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014: Evidence from a Mathematical Model

As the world’s fastest spreading vector-borne disease, dengue was estimated to infect more than 390 million people in 2010, a 30-fold increase in the past half century. Although considered to be a non-endemic country, mainland China had 55,114 reported dengue cases from 2005 to 2014, of which 47,056 occurred in 2014. Furthermore, 94% of the indigenous cases in this time period were reported in Guangdong Province, 83% of which were in Guangzhou City. In order to determine the possible determinants of the unprecedented outbreak in 2014, a population-based deterministic model was developed to describe dengue transmission dynamics in Guangzhou. Regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) was adopted to calibrate the model and entomological surveillance data was used to validate the mosquito submodel. Different scenarios were created to investigate the roles of the timing of an imported case, climate, vertical transmission from mosquitoes to their offspring, and intervention. The results suggested that an early imported case was the most important factor in determining the 2014 outbreak characteristics. Precipitation and temperature can also change the transmission dynamics. Extraordinary high precipitation in May and August, 2014 appears to have increased vector abundance. Considering the relatively small number of cases in 2013, the effect of vertical transmission was less important. The earlier and more frequent intervention in 2014 also appeared to be effective. If the intervention in 2014 was the same as that in 2013, the outbreak size may have been over an order of magnitude higher than the observed number of new cases in 2014.The early date of the first imported and locally transmitted case was largely responsible for the outbreak in 2014, but it was influenced by intervention, climate and vertical transmission. Early detection and response to imported cases in the spring and early summer is crucial to avoid large outbreaks in the future.     

Co-circulation of two genotypes of Dengue virus serotype 3 in Guangzhou, China, 2009

ABSTRACT: Dengue is emerging as the most important mosquito borne viral disease in the world. In mainland China, sporadic and large outbreaks of dengue illness caused by the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV-1 to DENV-4) have been well documented. Guangdong province is the major affected area in China, and DENV-1 has dominantly circulated in Guangdong for a long time. In this study, a family cluster of DENV-3 infection in Guangzhou was described. Three cases were diagnosed as dengue fever based on clinical manifestation, serological and RT-PCR assays. Two DENV-3 strains were isolated in C6/36 cells and the complete genome sequences were determined. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the new DENV-3 isolates from the family cluster were grouped within genotype III. Considering the fact that several DENV-3 strains within genotype V were also identified in Guangzhou in 2009, at least two genotypes of DENV-3 co-circulated in Guangzhou. Careful investigation and virological analysis should be warranted in the future.     

Wolbachia Reduces the Transmission Potential of Dengue-Infected Aedes aegypti

BackgroundDengue viruses (DENV) are the causative agents of dengue, the world’s most prevalent arthropod-borne disease with around 40% of the world’s population at risk of infection annually. Wolbachia pipientis, an obligate intracellular bacterium, is being developed as a biocontrol strategy against dengue because it limits replication of the virus in the mosquito. The Wolbachia strain wMel, which has been introduced into the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, has been shown to invade and spread to near fixation in field releases. Standard measures of Wolbachia’s efficacy for blocking virus replication focus on the detection and quantification of virus in mosquito tissues. Examining the saliva provides a more accurate measure of transmission potential and can reveal the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), that is, the time it takes virus to arrive in the saliva following the consumption of DENV viremic blood. EIP is a key determinant of a mosquito’s ability to transmit DENVs, as the earlier the virus appears in the saliva the more opportunities the mosquito will have to infect humans on subsequent bites.Conclusions/SignificanceThe saliva-based traits reported here offer more disease-relevant measures of Wolbachia’s effects on the vector and the virus. The lengthening of EIP highlights another means, in addition to the reduction of infection frequencies and DENV titers in mosquitoes, by which Wolbachia should operate to reduce DENV transmission in the field.     

Follow up estimation of Aedes aegypti entomological parameters and mathematical modellings

The dengue virus is a vector-borne disease transmitted by mosquito Aedes aegypti and the incidence is strongly influenced by temperature and humidity which vary seasonally. To assess the effects of temperature on dengue transmission, mathematical models are developed based on the population dynamics theory. However, depending on the hypotheses of the modelling, different outcomes regarding to the risk of epidemics are obtained. We address this question comparing two simple models supplied with model's parameters estimated from temperature-controlled experiments, especially the entomological parameters regarded to the mosquito's life cycle in different temperatures. Once obtained the mortality and transition rates of different stages comprising the life cycle of mosquito and the oviposition rate, we compare the capacity of vector reproduction (the basic offspring number) and the risk of infection (basic reproduction number) provided by two models. The extended model, which is more realistic, showed that both mosquito population and dengue risk are situated at higher values than the simplified model, even that the basic offspring number is lower.     

The 2012 Madeira Dengue Outbreak: Epidemiological Determinants and Future Epidemic Potential

Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first ‘European’ dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak''s demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August—a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira''s public health planning.     

Predicting Local Dengue Transmission in Guangzhou,China, through the Influence of Imported Cases,Mosquito Density and Climate Variability

Introduction

Each year there are approximately 390 million dengue infections worldwide. Weather variables have a significant impact on the transmission of Dengue Fever (DF), a mosquito borne viral disease. DF in mainland China is characterized as an imported disease. Hence it is necessary to explore the roles of imported cases, mosquito density and climate variability in dengue transmission in China. The study was to identify the relationship between dengue occurrence and possible risk factors and to develop a predicting model for dengue’s control and prevention purpose.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Three traditional suburbs and one district with an international airport in Guangzhou city were selected as the study areas. Autocorrelation and cross-correlation analysis were used to perform univariate analysis to identify possible risk factors, with relevant lagged effects, associated with local dengue cases. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to extract principal components and PCA score was used to represent the original variables to reduce multi-collinearity. Combining the univariate analysis and prior knowledge, time-series Poisson regression analysis was conducted to quantify the relationship between weather variables, Breteau Index, imported DF cases and the local dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by pseudo-R², Akaike information criterion (AIC) and residual test. There were a total of 707 notified local DF cases from March 2006 to December 2012, with a seasonal distribution from August to November. There were a total of 65 notified imported DF cases from 20 countries, with forty-six cases (70.8%) imported from Southeast Asia. The model showed that local DF cases were positively associated with mosquito density, imported cases, temperature, precipitation, vapour pressure and minimum relative humidity, whilst being negatively associated with air pressure, with different time lags.

Conclusions

Imported DF cases and mosquito density play a critical role in local DF transmission, together with weather variables. The establishment of an early warning system, using existing surveillance datasets will help to control and prevent dengue in Guangzhou, China.     

Quantitative genetics of Aedes aegypti vector competence for dengue viruses: towards a new paradigm?

Similar to many other host-pathogen interactions, the vector competence of Aedes aegypti for dengue viruses appears to be determined by genotype-by-genotype interactions, whereby the outcome of infection depends on the specific combination of mosquito and virus genotypes. This can complicate efforts to dissect the genetic basis of vector competence in nature because it obscures mapping between genotype and phenotype and brings into question the notion of universal mosquito resistance or susceptibility. Conversely, it offers novel opportunities to better define compatible vector-pathogen associations based on integration of both vector and pathogen genomics, which should eventually improve understanding of pathogen transmission dynamics and the risk of vector-borne disease emergence.     

Evaluation of a temperate climate mosquito,Ochlerotatus detritus (=Aedes detritus), as a potential vector of Japanese encephalitis virus

The U.K. has not yet experienced a confirmed outbreak of mosquito‐borne virus transmission to people or livestock despite numerous autochthonous epizootic and human outbreaks of mosquito‐borne diseases on the European mainland. Indeed, whether or not British mosquitoes are competent to transmit arboviruses has not been established. Therefore, the competence of a local (temperate) British mosquito species, Ochlerotatus detritus (=Aedes detritus) (Diptera: Culicidae) for transmission of a member of the genus Flavivirus, Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) as a model for mosquito‐borne virus transmission was assessed. The JEV competence in a laboratory strain of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae), a previously incriminated JEV vector, was also evaluated as a positive control. Ochlerotatus detritus adults were reared from field‐collected juvenile stages. In oral infection bioassays, adult females developed disseminated infections and were able to transmit virus as determined by the isolation of virus in saliva secretions. When pooled at 7–21 days post‐infection, 13% and 25% of O. detritus were able to transmit JEV when held at 23 °C and 28 °C, respectively. Similar results were obtained for C. quinquefasciatus. To our knowledge, this study is the first to demonstrate that a British mosquito species, O. detritus, is a potential vector of an exotic flavivirus.     

Characteristics of a Dengue Outbreak in a Remote Pacific Island Chain – Republic of the Marshall Islands, 2011–2012

Dengue is a potentially fatal acute febrile illness caused by four mosquito-transmitted dengue viruses (DENV-1–4). Although dengue outbreaks regularly occur in many regions of the Pacific, little is known about dengue in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). To better understand dengue in RMI, we investigated an explosive outbreak that began in October 2011. Suspected cases were reported to the Ministry of Health, serum specimens were tested with a dengue rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and confirmatory testing was performed using RT-PCR and IgM ELISA. Laboratory-positive cases were defined by detection of DENV nonstructural protein 1 by RDT, DENV nucleic acid by RT-PCR, or anti-DENV IgM antibody by RDT or ELISA. Secondary infection was defined by detection of anti-DENV IgG antibody by ELISA in a laboratory-positive acute specimen. During the four months of the outbreak, 1,603 suspected dengue cases (3% of the RMI population) were reported. Of 867 (54%) laboratory-positive cases, 209 (24%) had dengue with warning signs, six (0.7%) had severe dengue, and none died. Dengue incidence was highest in residents of Majuro and individuals aged 10–29 years, and ∼95% of dengue cases were experiencing secondary infection. Only DENV-4 was detected by RT-PCR, which phylogenetic analysis demonstrated was most closely related to a virus previously identified in Southeast Asia. Cases of vertical DENV transmission, and DENV/Salmonella Typhi and DENV/Mycobacterium leprae co-infection were identified. Entomological surveys implicated water storage containers and discarded tires as the most important development sites for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Although this is the first documented dengue outbreak in RMI, the age groups of cases and high prevalence of secondary infection demonstrate prior DENV circulation. Dengue surveillance should continue to be strengthened in RMI and throughout the Pacific to identify and rapidly respond to future outbreaks.     

Transmission assumptions generate conflicting predictions in host-vector disease models: a case study in West Nile virus

This review synthesizes the conflicting outbreak predictions generated by different biological assumptions in host–vector disease models. It is motivated by the North American outbreak of West Nile virus, an emerging infectious disease that has prompted at least five dynamical modelling studies. Mathematical models have long proven successful in investigating the dynamics and control of infectious disease systems. The underlying assumptions in these epidemiological models determine their mathematical structure, and therefore influence their predictions. A crucial assumption is the host–vector interaction encapsulated in the disease-transmission term, and a key prediction is the basic reproduction number, R ₀. We connect these two model elements by demonstrating how the choice of transmission term qualitatively and quantitatively alters R ₀ and therefore alters predicted disease dynamics and control implications. Whereas some transmission terms predict that reducing the host population will reduce disease outbreaks, others predict that this will exacerbate infection risk. These conflicting predictions are reconciled by understanding that different transmission terms apply biologically only at certain population densities, outside which they can generate erroneous predictions. For West Nile virus, R ₀ estimates for six common North American bird species indicate that all would be effective outbreak hosts.     

Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito

We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations.     

Modeling intra-mosquito dynamics of Zika virus and its dose-dependence confirms the low epidemic potential of Aedes albopictus

Originating from African forests, Zika virus (ZIKV) has now emerged worldwide in urbanized areas, mainly transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Although Aedes albopictus can transmit ZIKV experimentally and was suspected to be a ZIKV vector in Central Africa, the potential of this species to sustain virus transmission was yet to be uncovered until the end of 2019, when several autochthonous transmissions of the virus vectored by Ae. albopictus occurred in France. Aside from these few locally acquired ZIKV infections, most territories colonized by Ae. albopictus have been spared so far. The risk level of ZIKV emergence in these areas remains however an open question. To assess Ae. albopictus’ vector potential for ZIKV and identify key virus outbreak predictors, we built a complete framework using the complementary combination of (i) dose-dependent experimental Ae. albopictus exposure to ZIKV followed by time-dependent assessment of infection and systemic infection rates, (ii) modeling of intra-human ZIKV viremia dynamics, and (iii) in silico epidemiological simulations using an Agent-Based Model. The highest risk of transmission occurred during the pre-symptomatic stage of the disease, at the peak of viremia. At this dose, mosquito infection probability was estimated to be 20%, and 21 days were required to reach the median systemic infection rates. Mosquito population origin, either temperate or tropical, had no impact on infection rates or intra-host virus dynamic. Despite these unfavorable characteristics for transmission, Ae. albopictus was still able to trigger and yield large outbreaks in a simulated environment in the presence of sufficiently high mosquito biting rates. Our results reveal a low but existing epidemic potential of Ae. albopictus for ZIKV, that might explain the absence of large scale ZIKV epidemics so far in territories occupied only by Ae. albopictus. They nevertheless support active surveillance and eradication programs in these territories to maintain the risk of emergence to a low level.     

Dynamics of the "popcorn" Wolbachia infection in outbred Aedes aegypti informs prospects for mosquito vector control

Forty percent of the world's population is at risk of contracting dengue virus, which produces dengue fever with a potentially fatal hemorrhagic form. The wMelPop Wolbachia infection of Drosophila melanogaster reduces life span and interferes with viral transmission when introduced into the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of dengue virus. Wolbachia has been proposed as an agent for preventing transmission of dengue virus. Population invasion by Wolbachia depends on levels of cytoplasmic incompatibility, fitness effects, and maternal transmission. Here we characterized these traits in an outbred genetic background of a potential target population of Ae. aegypti using two crossing schemes. Cytoplasmic incompatibility was strong in this background, and the maternal transmission rate of Wolbachia was high. The infection substantially reduced longevity of infected adult females, regardless of whether adults came from larvae cultured under high or low levels of nutrition or density. The infection reduced the viability of diapausing and nondiapausing eggs. Viability was particularly low when eggs were laid by older females and when diapausing eggs had been stored for a few weeks. The infection affected mosquito larval development time and adult body size under different larval nutrition levels and densities. The results were used to assess the potential for wMelPop-CLA to invade natural populations of Ae. aegypti and to develop recommendations for the maintenance of fitness in infected mosquitoes that need to compete against field insects.     

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.     

Natural vertical transmission of dengue viruses by Aedes aegypti in Bolivia

The natural transmission of dengue virus from an infected female mosquito to its progeny, namely the vertical transmission, was researched in wild caught Aedes aegypti during an important outbreak in the town of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. Mosquitoes were collected at the preimaginal stages (eggs, larvae and pupae) then reared up to adult stage for viral detection using molecular methods. Dengue virus serotypes 1 and 3 were found to be co-circulating with significant higher prevalence in male than in female mosquitoes. Of the 97 pools of Ae. aegypti (n = 635 male and 748 female specimens) screened, 14 pools, collected in February-May in 2007, were found positive for dengue virus infection: five DEN-1 and nine DEN-3. The average true infection rate (TIR) and minimum infection rate (MIR) were respectively 1.08% and 1.01%. These observations suggest that vertical transmission of dengue virus may be detected in vectors at the peak of an outbreak as well as several months before an epidemic occurs in human population.     

The impact of climate suitability,urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil

Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.     

Zika Virus in Gabon (Central Africa) – 2007: A New Threat from Aedes albopictus?

Background

Chikungunya and dengue viruses emerged in Gabon in 2007, with large outbreaks primarily affecting the capital Libreville and several northern towns. Both viruses subsequently spread to the south-east of the country, with new outbreaks occurring in 2010. The mosquito species Aedes albopictus, that was known as a secondary vector for both viruses, recently invaded the country and was the primary vector involved in the Gabonese outbreaks. We conducted a retrospective study of human sera and mosquitoes collected in Gabon from 2007 to 2010, in order to identify other circulating arboviruses.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Sample collections, including 4312 sera from patients presenting with painful febrile disease, and 4665 mosquitoes belonging to 9 species, split into 247 pools (including 137 pools of Aedes albopictus), were screened with molecular biology methods. Five human sera and two Aedes albopictus pools, all sampled in an urban setting during the 2007 outbreak, were positive for the flavivirus Zika (ZIKV). The ratio of Aedes albopictus pools positive for ZIKV was similar to that positive for dengue virus during the concomitant dengue outbreak suggesting similar mosquito infection rates and, presumably, underlying a human ZIKV outbreak. ZIKV sequences from the envelope and NS3 genes were amplified from a human serum sample. Phylogenetic analysis placed the Gabonese ZIKV at a basal position in the African lineage, pointing to ancestral genetic diversification and spread.

Conclusions/Significance

We provide the first direct evidence of human ZIKV infections in Gabon, and its first occurrence in the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus. These data reveal an unusual natural life cycle for this virus, occurring in an urban environment, and potentially representing a new emerging threat due to this novel association with a highly invasive vector whose geographic range is still expanding across the globe.     

Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan,PR

Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010–2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r²) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r² = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r² = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r² = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r² = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r² = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors.