Hidden population size estimation and diagnostics using two respondent-driven samples with applications in Armenia

Estimating the size of hidden populations is essential to understand the magnitude of social and healthcare needs, risk behaviors, and disease burden. However, due to the hidden nature of these populations, they are difficult to survey, and there are no gold standard size estimation methods. Many different methods and variations exist, and diagnostic tools are needed to help researchers assess method-specific assumptions as well as compare between methods. Further, because many necessary mathematical assumptions are unrealistic for real survey implementation, assessment of how robust methods are to deviations from the stated assumptions is essential. We describe diagnostics and assess the performance of a new population size estimation method, capture–recapture with successive sampling population size estimation (CR-SS-PSE), which we apply to data from 3 years of studies from three cities and three hidden populations in Armenia. CR-SS-PSE relies on data from two sequential respondent-driven sampling surveys and extends the successive sampling population size estimation (SS-PSE) framework by using the number of individuals in the overlap between the two surveys and a model for the successive sampling process to estimate population size. We demonstrate that CR-SS-PSE is more robust to violations of successive sampling assumptions than SS-PSE. Further, we compare the CR-SS-PSE estimates to population size estimations using other common methods, including unique object and service multipliers, wisdom of the crowd, and two-source capture–recapture to illustrate volatility across estimation methods.     

Inverse Adaptive Cluster Sampling

Consider a population in which the variable of interest tends to be at or near zero for many of the population units but a subgroup exhibits values distinctly different from zero. Such a population can be described as rare in the sense that the proportion of elements having nonzero values is very small. Obtaining an estimate of a population parameter such as the mean or total that is nonzero is difficult under classical fixed sample-size designs since there is a reasonable probability that a fixed sample size will yield all zeroes. We consider inverse sampling designs that use stopping rules based on the number of rare units observed in the sample. We look at two stopping rules in detail and derive unbiased estimators of the population total. The estimators do not rely on knowing what proportion of the population exhibit the rare trait but instead use an estimated value. Hence, the estimators are similar to those developed for poststratification sampling designs. We also incorporate adaptive cluster sampling into the sampling design to allow for the case where the rare elements tend to cluster within the population in some manner. The formulas for the variances of the estimators do not allow direct analytic comparison of the efficiency of the various designs and stopping rules, so we provide the results of a small simulation study to obtain some insight into the differences among the stopping rules and sampling approaches. The results indicate that a modified stopping rule that incorporates an adaptive sampling component and utilizes an initial random sample of fixed size is the best in the sense of having the smallest variance.     

Sampling designs, field techniques and analytical methods for systematic plant population surveys

Summary Intense pressures on the use and management of land underscore the need for reliable and up-to-date information on the status of native species. The outcomes of the most recent plant population surveys commissioned by agencies are generally limited by faults or omissions in survey design. There is little guidance on how to design and implement field surveys of plant populations in ways that address the most pertinent gaps in our current knowledge and provide answers of known reliability. In this paper, I used the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a framework to define the data required from surveys to assess the conservation status of potentially threatened species. The criteria address the location and geographical range of extant populations, aspects of species' life history, the size and structure of extant populations and rates of change in abundance and range. I have described survey designs and sampling techniques for estimating these parameters. Choices of appropriate methods that consider trade-offs between desired levels of precision and rigour and sampling effort are illustrated using surveys of 13 Tasmanian Epacris species as examples. Key elements of the approach are: (i) systematic approaches to field searches and recording both positive and negative search outcomes; (ii) construction and testing of intuitive or quantitative distribution models in an explicit experimental framework; (iii) rigorous cost-effective sampling designs, systematic field methodologies and simple analytical techniques to estimate both the magnitude and uncertainty of distribution and abundance; (iv) assessment of the merits and limitations of alternative sampling options; and (v) inference of changes in distribution and abundance by judicious use of historical data and field evidence of recent population processes.     

Surveying Hard-to-Reach Groups Through Sampled Respondents in a Social Network

The sampling frame in most social science surveys misses members of certain groups, such as the homeless or individuals living with HIV. These groups are known as hard-to-reach groups. One strategy for learning about these groups, or subpopulations, involves reaching hard-to-reach group members through their social network. In this paper we compare the efficiency of two common methods for subpopulation size estimation using data from standard surveys. These designs are examples of mental link tracing designs. These designs begin with a randomly sampled set of network members (nodes) and then reach other nodes indirectly through questions asked to the sampled nodes. Mental link tracing designs cost significantly less than traditional link tracing designs, yet introduce additional sources of potential bias. We examine the influence of one such source of bias using simulation studies. We then demonstrate our findings using data from the General Social Survey collected in 2004 and 2006. Additionally, we provide survey design suggestions for future surveys incorporating such designs.     

Sampling in ecology and evolution – bridging the gap between theory and practice

Sampling is a key issue for answering most ecological and evolutionary questions. The importance of developing a rigorous sampling design tailored to specific questions has already been discussed in the ecological and sampling literature and has provided useful tools and recommendations to sample and analyse ecological data. However, sampling issues are often difficult to overcome in ecological studies due to apparent inconsistencies between theory and practice, often leading to the implementation of simplified sampling designs that suffer from unknown biases. Moreover, we believe that classical sampling principles which are based on estimation of means and variances are insufficient to fully address many ecological questions that rely on estimating relationships between a response and a set of predictor variables over time and space. Our objective is thus to highlight the importance of selecting an appropriate sampling space and an appropriate sampling design. We also emphasize the importance of using prior knowledge of the study system to estimate models or complex parameters and thus better understand ecological patterns and processes generating these patterns. Using a semi‐virtual simulation study as an illustration we reveal how the selection of the space (e.g. geographic, climatic), in which the sampling is designed, influences the patterns that can be ultimately detected. We also demonstrate the inefficiency of common sampling designs to reveal response curves between ecological variables and climatic gradients. Further, we show that response‐surface methodology, which has rarely been used in ecology, is much more efficient than more traditional methods. Finally, we discuss the use of prior knowledge, simulation studies and model‐based designs in defining appropriate sampling designs. We conclude by a call for development of methods to unbiasedly estimate nonlinear ecologically relevant parameters, in order to make inferences while fulfilling requirements of both sampling theory and field work logistics.     

Mixture Models for Distance Sampling Detection Functions

We present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set.     

Parameter Estimation in Stratified Cluster Sampling under Randomized Response Models for Sensitive Question Survey

Randomized response is a research method to get accurate answers to sensitive questions in structured sample survey. Simple random sampling is widely used in surveys of sensitive questions but hard to apply on large targeted populations. On the other side, more sophisticated sampling regimes and corresponding formulas are seldom employed to sensitive question surveys. In this work, we developed a series of formulas for parameter estimation in cluster sampling and stratified cluster sampling under two kinds of randomized response models by using classic sampling theories and total probability formulas. The performances of the sampling methods and formulas in the survey of premarital sex and cheating on exams at Soochow University were also provided. The reliability of the survey methods and formulas for sensitive question survey was found to be high.     

Evaluation of Noninvasive Genetic Sampling Methods for Felid and Canid Populations

Abstract: Noninvasive sampling methods provide a means for studying species such as large mammalian carnivores that are difficult to survey using traditional techniques. Focusing on bobcat (Lynx rufus), we compared the effectiveness of noninvasive hair and scat genetic sampling in terms of field sample collection, species identification, and individual identification. We describe a novel hair-snare design and sampling protocol that successfully sampled 4 sympatric carnivore species, bobcat, mountain lion (Felis concolor), coyote (Canis latrans), and gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), in 3 habitat blocks in coastal southern California, USA. Scat surveys were also successful at sampling bobcats and other carnivores in the area. Hair and scat sampling methods had similar species identification success (81% and 87%, respectively) using mitochondrial DNA amplification and restriction enzyme digestion patterns. Therefore, for studies focused on the distribution and activity of a suite of carnivore species, we recommend a combination of noninvasive methodologies, for example, targeting hair and scat surveys toward species and sites where they are most effective. Because of a higher success rate for scat (85%) than for hair samples (10%) when using 4 microsatellite loci and a multiple-tubes approach to verify individual genotypes, we suggest scat sampling is a better choice for studies that require individual identification of bobcats.     

Sampling strategies for the assessment of tree species diversity

Abstract. This paper aims at proposing efficient vegetation sampling strategies. It describes how the estimation of species richness and diversity of moist evergreen forest is affected by (1) sampling design (simple random sampling, random cluster sampling, systematic cluster sampling, stratified cluster sampling); (2) choice of species richness estimators (number of observed species vs. non-parametric estimators) and (3) choice of diversity index (Simpson vs. Shannon). Two sites are studied: a 28-ha area situated in the Western Ghats of India and a 25-ha area located at Pasoh in Peninsular Malaysia. The results show that: (1) whatever the sampling strategy, estimates of species richness depend on sample size in these very diverse forest ecosystems which contain many rare species; (2) Simpson's diversity index reaches a stable value at low sample sizes while Shannon's index is affected more by the addition of rare species with increasing sample size; (3) cluster sampling strategies provide a good compromise between cost and statistical efficiency; (4) 300 - 400 sample trees grouped in small clusters (10–50 individuals) are enough to obtain unbiased and precise estimates of Simpson's index; (5) the local topography of the Western Ghats has a major influence on forest composition, the steep slopes being richer and more diverse than the ridges and gentle slopes; (6) stratified cluster sampling is thus an interesting alternative to systematic cluster sampling.     

The Repeatability of Fish Biomass and Size Distribution Estimates Obtained by Hydroacoustic Surveys Using Various Sampling Strategies and Statistical Analyses

Successive hydroacoustic surveys were conducted on a small lake in the Jura Mountains (eastern France) to test several sampling strategies and methods of calculation. The results show that night samples give a better picture of the fish populations than daytime ones; that parallel transect surveys are the ones easiest to conduct, and that, all the survey designs tested, gave statistically equivalent biomass estimations and size distributions. The results obtained are also similar for all the statistical calculation methods used. Repeated samplings on several successive days gave similar results for the estimated biomass and fish size structure in the hypolimnion, but gave different results for the fish populations in the epilimnion. As part of the Water Framework Directive monitoring of fish populations, these hydroacoustic methods can be used to estimate fish stocks, and to track their change over time and spatial differences, but they need to be combined with complementary sampling methods. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Design and Analysis of Line Transect Surveys for Primates

Line transect surveys are widely used for estimating abundance of primate populations. The method relies on a small number of key assumptions, and if these are not met, substantial bias may occur. For a variety of reasons, primate surveys often do not follow what is generally considered to be best practice, either in survey design or in analysis. The design often comprises too few lines (sometimes just 1), subjectively placed or placed along trails, so lacks both randomization and adequate replication. Analysis often involves flawed or inefficient models, and often uses biased estimates of the locations of primate groups relative to the line. We outline the standard method, emphasizing the assumptions underlying the approach. We then consider options for when it is difficult or impossible to meet key assumptions. We explore the performance of these options by simulation, focusing particularly on the analysis of primate group sizes, where many of the variations in survey methods have been developed. We also discuss design issues, field methods, analysis, and potential alternative methodologies for when standard line transect sampling cannot deliver reliable abundance estimates.     

Comparing the Performance of Cluster Random Sampling and Integrated Threshold Mapping for Targeting Trachoma Control,Using Computer Simulation

Background

Implementation of trachoma control strategies requires reliable district-level estimates of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF), generally collected using the recommended gold-standard cluster randomized surveys (CRS). Integrated Threshold Mapping (ITM) has been proposed as an integrated and cost-effective means of rapidly surveying trachoma in order to classify districts according to treatment thresholds. ITM differs from CRS in a number of important ways, including the use of a school-based sampling platform for children aged 1–9 and a different age distribution of participants. This study uses computerised sampling simulations to compare the performance of these survey designs and evaluate the impact of varying key parameters.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Realistic pseudo gold standard data for 100 districts were generated that maintained the relative risk of disease between important sub-groups and incorporated empirical estimates of disease clustering at the household, village and district level. To simulate the different sampling approaches, 20 clusters were selected from each district, with individuals sampled according to the protocol for ITM and CRS. Results showed that ITM generally under-estimated the true prevalence of TF over a range of epidemiological settings and introduced more district misclassification according to treatment thresholds than did CRS. However, the extent of underestimation and resulting misclassification was found to be dependent on three main factors: (i) the district prevalence of TF; (ii) the relative risk of TF between enrolled and non-enrolled children within clusters; and (iii) the enrollment rate in schools.

Conclusions/Significance

Although in some contexts the two methodologies may be equivalent, ITM can introduce a bias-dependent shift as prevalence of TF increases, resulting in a greater risk of misclassification around treatment thresholds. In addition to strengthening the evidence base around choice of trachoma survey methodologies, this study illustrates the use of a simulated approach in addressing operational research questions for trachoma but also other NTDs.     

A General Framework for Thermodynamically Consistent Parameterization and Efficient Sampling of Enzymatic Reactions

Kinetic models provide the means to understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of enzymes upon different perturbations. Despite their obvious advantages, classical parameterizations require large amounts of data to fit their parameters. Particularly, enzymes displaying complex reaction and regulatory (allosteric) mechanisms require a great number of parameters and are therefore often represented by approximate formulae, thereby facilitating the fitting but ignoring many real kinetic behaviours. Here, we show that full exploration of the plausible kinetic space for any enzyme can be achieved using sampling strategies provided a thermodynamically feasible parameterization is used. To this end, we developed a General Reaction Assembly and Sampling Platform (GRASP) capable of consistently parameterizing and sampling accurate kinetic models using minimal reference data. The former integrates the generalized MWC model and the elementary reaction formalism. By formulating the appropriate thermodynamic constraints, our framework enables parameterization of any oligomeric enzyme kinetics without sacrificing complexity or using simplifying assumptions. This thermodynamically safe parameterization relies on the definition of a reference state upon which feasible parameter sets can be efficiently sampled. Uniform sampling of the kinetics space enabled dissecting enzyme catalysis and revealing the impact of thermodynamics on reaction kinetics. Our analysis distinguished three reaction elasticity regions for common biochemical reactions: a steep linear region (0> ΔG_r >-2 kJ/mol), a transition region (-2> ΔG_r >-20 kJ/mol) and a constant elasticity region (ΔG_r <-20 kJ/mol). We also applied this framework to model more complex kinetic behaviours such as the monomeric cooperativity of the mammalian glucokinase and the ultrasensitive response of the phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase of Escherichia coli. In both cases, our approach described appropriately not only the kinetic behaviour of these enzymes, but it also provided insights about the particular features underpinning the observed kinetics. Overall, this framework will enable systematic parameterization and sampling of enzymatic reactions.     

Temporally Adaptive Sampling: A Case Study in Rare Species Survey Design with Marbled Salamanders (Ambystoma opacum)

Improving detection rates for elusive species with clumped distributions is often accomplished through adaptive sampling designs. This approach can be extended to include species with temporally variable detection probabilities. By concentrating survey effort in years when the focal species are most abundant or visible, overall detection rates can be improved. This requires either long-term monitoring at a few locations where the species are known to occur or models capable of predicting population trends using climatic and demographic data. For marbled salamanders (Ambystoma opacum) in Massachusetts, we demonstrate that annual variation in detection probability of larvae is regionally correlated. In our data, the difference in survey success between years was far more important than the difference among the three survey methods we employed: diurnal surveys, nocturnal surveys, and dipnet surveys. Based on these data, we simulate future surveys to locate unknown populations under a temporally adaptive sampling framework. In the simulations, when pond dynamics are correlated over the focal region, the temporally adaptive design improved mean survey success by as much as 26% over a non-adaptive sampling design. Employing a temporally adaptive strategy costs very little, is simple, and has the potential to substantially improve the efficient use of scarce conservation funds.     

Noninvasive Hair Sampling and Genetic Tagging of Co-Distributed Fishers and American Martens

ABSTRACT Estimation of abundance is important for assessing population responses to management actions. Accurate abundance estimates are particularly critical for monitoring temporal variation following reintroductions when the management goal is to attain population sizes capable of sustaining harvest. Numerous reintroductions have taken place in the Great Lakes region of North America, including efforts to restore extirpated fishers (Martes pennanti) and American martens (M. americana). We used a DNA-based noninvasive hair-snaring method based on one trap design and trapping -grid configuration, and evaluated capture—mark—recapture (CMR) analytical approaches to simultaneously estimate population size for co-distributed fishers and American martens in a 671-km² area of the Ottawa National Forest in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. We included harvest as a final recapture period to increase probability of recapture and to evaluate potential violations of geographic closure assumptions. We used microsatellite markers to identify target species, eliminate congener species, and provide individual identity for estimation of abundance. Population estimates for fishers and martens on the study area ranged from 35 to 60 and 8 to 28, respectively. Estimators incorporating harvest data resulted in up to a 40% increase in abundance estimates relative to estimators without harvest. We considered population estimates not including harvest data the most appropriate for the study due to timing of sampling and environmental factors, but inclusion of harvested individuals was shown to be useful as a means to detect violations of the assumption of geographic closure. We suggest improvements on future CMR sampling designs for larger landscape scales of relevance to management through incorporation of habitat or historical harvest data. Noninvasive genetic methods that simultaneously estimate the numerical abundance of co-distributed species can greatly decrease assessment costs relative to traditional methods, and increase resulting demographic and ecological information.     

Could ecologists be more random? Straightforward alternatives to haphazard spatial sampling

When conducting field studies, it is common for ecologists to choose the locations of sampling units arbitrarily at the time sampling occurs, rather than using a properly randomised sampling design. Unfortunately, this ‘haphazard’ sampling approach cannot provide formal statistical inference from the sample to the population without making untestable assumptions. Here, we argue that two recent technological developments remove the need for haphazard sampling in many situations. A general approach to simple randomised sampling designs is outlined, and some examples demonstrate that even complicated designs can be implemented easily using software that is widely used among ecologists. We consider that more rigorous, randomised sampling designs would strengthen the validity of the conclusions drawn from ecological studies, to the benefit of the discipline as a whole.     

Selecting an efficient design for assessing exposure-disease relationships in an assembled cohort

We develop approximate methods to compare the efficiencies and to compute the power of alternative potential designs for sampling from a cohort before beginning to collect exposure data. Our methods require only that the cohort be assembled, meaning that the numbers of individuals Nkj at risk at pairs of event times tk and tj greater than or equal to tk are available. To compute Nkj, one needs to know the entry, follow-up, censoring, and event history, but not the exposure, for each individual. Our methods apply to any "unbiased control sampling design," in which cases are compared to a random sample of noncases at risk at the time of an event. We apply our methods to approximate the efficiencies of the nested case-control design, the case-cohort design, and an augmented case-cohort design, compared to the full cohort design, in an assembled cohort of 17,633 members of an insurance cooperative who were followed for mortality from prostatic cancer. The assumptions underlying the approximation are that exposure is unrelated both to the hazard of an event and to the hazard for censoring. The approximations performed well in simulations when both assumptions held and when the exposure was moderately related to censoring.     

A practical sampling design for acoustic surveys of bats

Acoustic surveys are widely used for describing bat occurrence and activity patterns and are increasingly important for addressing concerns for habitat management, wind energy, and disease on bat populations. Designing these surveys presents unique challenges, particularly when a probabilistic sample is required for drawing inference to unsampled areas. Sampling frame errors and other logistical constraints often require survey sites to be dropped from the sample and new sites added. Maintaining spatial balance and representativeness of the sample when these changes are made can be problematic. Spatially balanced sampling designs recently developed to support aquatic surveys along rivers provide solutions to a number of practical challenges faced by bat researchers and allow for sample site additions and deletions, support unequal-probability selection of sites, and provide an approximately unbiased local neighborhood-weighted variance estimator that is efficient for spatially structured populations such as is typical for bats. We implemented a spatially balanced design to survey canyon bat (Parastrellus hesperus) activity along a stream network. The spatially balanced design accommodated typical logistical challenges and yielded a 25% smaller estimated standard error for the mean activity level than the usual simple random sampling estimator. Spatially balanced designs have broad application to bat research and monitoring programs and will improve studies relying on model-based inference (e.g., occupancy models) by providing flexibility and protection against violations of the independence assumption, even if design-based estimators are not used. Our approach is scalable and can be used for pre- and post-construction surveys along wind turbine arrays and for regional monitoring programs. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

An empirical verification of population assignment methods by marking and parentage data: hatchery and wild steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in Forks Creek, Washington, USA

Assignment tests are increasingly applied in ecology and conservation, although empirical comparisons of methods are still rare or are restricted to few of the available approaches. Furthermore, the performance of assignment tests in cases with low population differentiation, violations of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and unbalanced sampling designs has not been verified. The release of adult hatchery steelhead to spawn in Forks Creek in 1996 and 1997 provided an opportunity to compare the power of different assignment methods to distinguish their offspring from those of sympatric wild steelhead. We compared standard assignment methods requiring baseline samples (frequency, distance and Bayesian) and clustering approaches with and without baseline information, using six freely available computer programs. Assignments were verified by parentage data obtained for a subset of returning offspring. All methods provided similar assignment success, despite low differentiation between wild and hatchery fish (F(ST) = 0.02). Bayesian approaches with baseline data performed best, whereas the results of clustering methods were variable and depended on the samples included in the analysis and the availability of baseline information. Removal of a locus with null alleles and equalizing sample sizes had little effect on assignments. Our results demonstrate the robustness of most assignment tests to low differentiation and violations of assumptions, as well as their utility for ecological studies that require correct classification of different groups.     

Statistical inference for familial disease clusters

In many epidemiologic studies, the first indication of an environmental or genetic contribution to the disease is the way in which the diseased cases cluster within the same family units. The concept of clustering is contrasted with incidence. We assume that all individuals are exchangeable except for their disease status. This assumption is used to provide an exact test of the initial hypothesis of no familial link with the disease, conditional on the number of diseased cases and the distribution of the sizes of the various family units. New parametric generalizations of binomial sampling models are described to provide measures of the effect size of the disease clustering. We consider models and an example that takes covariates into account. Ascertainment bias is described and the appropriate sampling distribution is demonstrated. Four numerical examples with real data illustrate these methods.