Comparative Effectiveness of Different Strategies of Oral Cholera Vaccination in Bangladesh: A Modeling Study

Background

Killed, oral cholera vaccines have proven safe and effective, and several large-scale mass cholera vaccination efforts have demonstrated the feasibility of widespread deployment. This study uses a mathematical model of cholera transmission in Bangladesh to examine the effectiveness of potential vaccination strategies.

Methods & Findings

We developed an age-structured mathematical model of cholera transmission and calibrated it to reproduce the dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. We used the model to predict the effectiveness of different cholera vaccination strategies over a period of 20 years. We explored vaccination programs that targeted one of three increasingly focused age groups (the entire vaccine-eligible population of age one year and older, children of ages 1 to 14 years, or preschoolers of ages 1 to 4 years) and that could occur either as campaigns recurring every five years or as continuous ongoing vaccination efforts. Our modeling results suggest that vaccinating 70% of the population would avert 90% of cholera cases in the first year but that campaign and continuous vaccination strategies differ in effectiveness over 20 years. Maintaining 70% coverage of the population would be sufficient to prevent sustained transmission of endemic cholera in Matlab, while vaccinating periodically every five years is less effective. Selectively vaccinating children 1–14 years old would prevent the most cholera cases per vaccine administered in both campaign and continuous strategies.

Conclusions

We conclude that continuous mass vaccination would be more effective against endemic cholera than periodic campaigns. Vaccinating children averts more cases per dose than vaccinating all age groups, although vaccinating only children is unlikely to control endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Careful consideration must be made before generalizing these results to other regions.     

Adaptive Vaccination Strategies to Mitigate Pandemic Influenza: Mexico as a Case Study

Background

We explore vaccination strategies against pandemic influenza in Mexico using an age-structured transmission model calibrated against local epidemiological data from the Spring 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic.

Methods and Findings

In the context of limited vaccine supplies, we evaluate age-targeted allocation strategies that either prioritize youngest children and persons over 65 years of age, as for seasonal influenza, or adaptively prioritize age groups based on the age patterns of hospitalization and death monitored in real-time during the early stages of the pandemic. Overall the adaptive vaccination strategy outperformed the seasonal influenza vaccination allocation strategy for a wide range of disease and vaccine coverage parameters.

Conclusions

This modeling approach could inform policies for Mexico and other countries with similar demographic features and vaccine resources issues, with regard to the mitigation of the S-OIV pandemic. We also discuss logistical issues associated with the implementation of adaptive vaccination strategies in the context of past and future influenza pandemics.     

Partition and Poliomyelitis: An Investigation of the Polio Disparity Affecting Muslims during India's Eradication Program

Background

Significant disparities in the incidence of polio existed during its eradication campaign in India. In 2006, Muslims, who comprise 16% of the population in affected states, comprised 70% of paralytic polio cases. This disparity was initially blamed on the Muslims and a rumor that the vaccination program was a plot to sterilize their children. Using the framework of structural violence, this paper describes how the socio-political and historical context of Muslim populations in India shaped the polio disparity.

Methods and Findings

A qualitative study utilizing methods of rapid ethnography was conducted from May-August 2009 in Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh, India. Field methods included participant observation of vaccination teams, historical document research, and 107 interviews with both Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) stakeholders and families with vaccine-eligible children. Almost all respondents agreed that Aligarh was a highly segregated city, mostly due to riots after Partition and during the 1990s. Since the formation of segregated neighborhoods, most respondents described that "Muslim areas" had been underdeveloped compared to "Hindu areas," facilitating the physical transmission of poliovirus. Distrust of the government and resistance to vaccination were linked to this disparate development and fears of sterilization influenced by the "Family Planning Program" from 1976-1977.

Conclusions

Ethnic violence and social marginalization since the Partition and during the rise of Hindu nationalism led to distrust of the government, the formation of segregated slums, and has made Muslims victims of structural violence. This led to the creation of disease-spreading physical environments, lowered vaccine efficacy, and disproportionately higher levels of resistance to vaccination. The causes of the polio disparity found in this study elucidate the nature of possible other health disparities affecting minorities in India.

Limitations

This study is limited by the manual coding of the transcribed data, size, and some dialectal difficulties in translation.     

Alternative Strategies to Reduce Maternal Mortality in India: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Background

Approximately one-quarter of all pregnancy- and delivery-related maternal deaths worldwide occur in India. Taking into account the costs, feasibility, and operational complexity of alternative interventions, we estimate the clinical and population-level benefits associated with strategies to improve the safety of pregnancy and childbirth in India.

Methods and Findings

Country- and region-specific data were synthesized using a computer-based model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy (both planned and unintended) and pregnancy- and childbirth-associated complications in individual women; and considers delivery location, attendant, and facility level. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to urban and rural India using survey-based data (e.g., unmet need for birth spacing/limiting, facility births, skilled birth attendants). Model validation compared projected maternal indicators with empiric data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions that could be provided individually or packaged as integrated services, could reduce the incidence of a complication or its case fatality rate, and could include improved logistics such as reliable transport to an appropriate referral facility as well as recognition of referral need and quality of care. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality. If over the next 5 y the unmet need for spacing and limiting births was met, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be prevented; more than US$1 billion saved; and at least one of every two abortion-related deaths averted. Still, reductions in maternal mortality reached a threshold (∼23%–35%) without including strategies that ensured reliable access to intrapartum and emergency obstetrical care (EmOC). An integrated and stepwise approach was identified that would ultimately prevent four of five maternal deaths; this approach coupled stepwise improvements in family planning and safe abortion with consecutively implemented strategies that incrementally increased skilled attendants, improved antenatal/postpartum care, shifted births away from home, and improved recognition of referral need, transport, and availability/quality of EmOC. The strategies in this approach ranged from being cost-saving to having incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than US$500 per year of life saved (YLS), well below India''s per capita gross domestic product (GDP), a common benchmark for cost-effectiveness.

Conclusions

Early intensive efforts to improve family planning and control of fertility choices and to provide safe abortion, accompanied by a paced systematic and stepwise effort to scale up capacity for integrated maternal health services over several years, is as cost-effective as childhood immunization or treatment of malaria, tuberculosis, or HIV. In just 5 y, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be averted through increasing contraception rates to meet women''s needs for spacing and limiting births; nearly US$1.5 billion would be saved by coupling safe abortion to aggressive family planning efforts; and with stepwise investments to improve access to pregnancy-related health services and to high-quality facility-based intrapartum care, more than 75% of maternal deaths could be prevented. If accomplished over the next decade, the lives of more than one million women would be saved. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Hepatitis B Vaccination Strategies to Prevent Perinatal Transmission in North Korea: Selective Vaccination vs. Universal Vaccination

BackgroundTo tackle the high prevalence of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in North Korea, it is essential that birth doses of HBV vaccines should be administered within 24 hours of birth. As the country fails to provide a Timely Birth Dose (TBD) of HBV vaccine, the efforts of reducing the high prevalence of HBV have been significantly hampered.MethodsTo examine the cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies to prevent perinatal transmission of HBV in North Korea, we established a decision tree with a Markov model consisting of selective, universal, and the country’s current vaccination program against HBV. The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from societal and payer’s perspectives and evaluated by Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY).ResultsThe results suggest that introducing the universal vaccination would prevent 1,866 cases of perinatal infections per 100,000 of the birth cohort of 2013. Furthermore, 900 cases of perinatal infections per 100,000 could be additionally averted if switching to the selective vaccination. The current vaccination is a dominated strategy both from the societal and payer’s perspective. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) between universal and selective vaccination is $267 from the societal perspective and is reported as $273 from the payer’s perspective.ConclusionBased on the assumption that the 2012 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in North Korea, $582.6 was set for cost-effectiveness criteria, the result of this study indicates that selective vaccination may be a highly cost-effective strategy compared to universal vaccination.     

Twenty-Eight Years of Poliovirus Replication in an Immunodeficient Individual: Impact on the Global Polio Eradication Initiative

There are currently huge efforts by the World Health Organization and partners to complete global polio eradication. With the significant decline in poliomyelitis cases due to wild poliovirus in recent years, rare cases related to the use of live-attenuated oral polio vaccine assume greater importance. Poliovirus strains in the oral vaccine are known to quickly revert to neurovirulent phenotype following replication in humans after immunisation. These strains can transmit from person to person leading to poliomyelitis outbreaks and can replicate for long periods of time in immunodeficient individuals leading to paralysis or chronic infection, with currently no effective treatment to stop excretion from these patients. Here, we describe an individual who has been excreting type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus for twenty eight years as estimated by the molecular clock established with VP1 capsid gene nucleotide sequences of serial isolates. This represents by far the longest period of excretion described from such a patient who is the only identified individual known to be excreting highly evolved vaccine-derived poliovirus at present. Using a range of in vivo and in vitro assays we show that the viruses are very virulent, antigenically drifted and excreted at high titre suggesting that such chronic excreters pose an obvious risk to the eradication programme. Our results in virus neutralization assays with human sera and immunisation-challenge experiments using transgenic mice expressing the human poliovirus receptor indicate that while maintaining high immunisation coverage will likely confer protection against paralytic disease caused by these viruses, significant changes in immunisation strategies might be required to effectively stop their occurrence and potential widespread transmission. Eventually, new stable live-attenuated polio vaccines with no risk of reversion might be required to respond to any poliovirus isolation in the post-eradication era.     

Strategies for Tobacco Control in India: A Systematic Review

Background

Tobacco control needs in India are large and complex. Evaluation of outcomes to date has been limited.

Aim

To review the extent of tobacco control measures, and the outcomes of associated trialled interventions, in India.

Methods

Information was identified via database searches, journal hand-searches, reference and citation searching, and contact with experts. Studies of any population resident in India were included. Studies where outcomes were not yet available, not directly related to tobacco use, or not specific to India, were excluded. Pre-tested proformas were used for data extraction and quality assessment. Studies with reliability concerns were excluded from some aspects of analysis. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) was use as a framework for synthesis. Heterogeneity limited meta-analysis options. Synthesis was therefore predominantly narrative.

Results

Additional to the Global Tobacco Surveillance System data, 80 studies were identified, 45 without reliability concerns. Most related to education (FCTC Article 12) and tobacco-use cessation (Article 14). They indicated widespread understanding of tobacco-related harm, but less knowledge about specific consequences of use. Healthcare professionals reported low confidence in cessation assistance, in keeping with low levels of training. Training for schoolteachers also appeared suboptimal. Educational and cessation assistance interventions demonstrated positive impact on tobacco use. Studies relating to smoke-free policies (Article 8), tobacco advertisements and availability (Articles 13 and 16) indicated increasingly widespread smoke-free policies, but persistence of high levels of SHS exposure, tobacco promotions and availability—including to minors. Data relating to taxation/pricing and packaging (Articles 6 and 11) were limited. We did not identify any studies of product regulation, alternative employment strategies, or illicit trade (Articles 9, 10, 15 and 17).

Conclusions

Tobacco-use outcomes could be improved by school/community-based and adult education interventions, and cessation assistance, facilitated by training for health professionals and schoolteachers. Additional tobacco control measures should be assessed.     

Seasonal Influenza Vaccination amongst Medical Students: A Social Network Analysis Based on a Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction

The Chief Medical Officer for England recommends that healthcare workers have a seasonal influenza vaccination in an attempt to protect both patients and NHS staff. Despite this, many healthcare workers do not have a seasonal influenza vaccination. Social network analysis is a well-established research approach that looks at individuals in the context of their social connections. We examine the effects of social networks on influenza vaccination decision and disease dynamics.

Methods

We used a social network analysis approach to look at vaccination distribution within the network of the Lancaster Medical School students and combined these data with the students’ beliefs about vaccination behaviours. We then developed a model which simulated influenza outbreaks to study the effects of preferentially vaccinating individuals within this network.

Results

Of the 253 eligible students, 217 (86%) provided relational data, and 65% of responders had received a seasonal influenza vaccination. Students who were vaccinated were more likely to think other medical students were vaccinated. However, there was no clustering of vaccinated individuals within the medical student social network. The influenza simulation model demonstrated that vaccination of well-connected individuals may have a disproportional effect on disease dynamics.

Conclusions

This medical student population exhibited vaccination coverage levels similar to those seen in other healthcare groups but below recommendations. However, in this population, a lack of vaccination clustering might provide natural protection from influenza outbreaks. An individual student’s perception of the vaccination coverage amongst their peers appears to correlate with their own decision to vaccinate, but the directionality of this relationship is not clear. When looking at the spread of disease within a population it is important to include social structures alongside vaccination data. Social networks influence disease epidemiology and vaccination campaigns designed with information from social networks could be a future target for policy makers.     

Set Configuration in Resistance Exercise: Muscle Fatigue and Cardiovascular Effects

Purpose

Cardiovascular responses of traditional resistance (TS) training have been extensively explored. However, the fatigue mechanisms associated with an intra-set rest configuration (ISR) have not been investigated. This study compares two modalities of set configurations for resistance exercise that equates work to rest ratios and measures the central and peripheral fatigue in combination with cortical, hemodynamic and cardiovascular measures.

Methods

11 subjects performed two isometric knee extension training sessions using TS and ISR configurations. Voluntary activation (VA), single twitch amplitude, low frequency fatigue (LFF), Mwave, motor evoked potential (MEP), short intracortical inhibition (SICI), intracortical facilitation (ICF) and heart rate variability were evaluated before and after each training session. During each session beat to beat heart rate, blood pressure and rate pressure product (RPP) were also evaluated.

Results

After exercise VA decreased significantly for TS but not for ISR (P < 0.001), single twitch amplitude and LFF values were lower for TS than ISR (P < 0.004), and SICI was reduced only for the TS configuration (P = 0.049). During exercise RPP values were significantly higher for the TS than for ISR (P = 0.001). RPP correlated with VA for TS (r = -.85 P < 0.001) suggesting a relationship between central fatigue and cardiovascular stress.

Conclusions

We conclude that ISR induced lower central and peripheral fatigue as well as lower cardiovascular stress in comparison with TS configuration. Our study suggests that set configuration is a key factor in the regulation of the neuromuscular and cardiovascular responses of resistance training.     

Shifting Cultivation and Conservation of Biological Diversity in Tripura, Northeast India

Shifting cultivation (jhooming) has been identified as one of the main human impacts influencing biodiversity in Tripura, Northeast India. Over the last few years a new class of shifting cultivators has emerged that has adopted non-traditional forms of jhooming, which have been responsible for the loss of biological diversity in the state. This paper describes the successes achieved by the state government in providing the jhumias (tribes practicing jhooming) with various non-jhooming options. Recommendations include the need for short and long term control measures, improvement of existing jhooming methods, and integration of traditional knowledge with new practices.     

Strategies to Improve Child Immunization via Antenatal Care Visits in India: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Numerous studies have examined the empirical evidence concerning the influence of demographic and socio-economic factors influencing child immunization, but no documentation is available which shows the actual impact of antenatal care (ANC) visits on subsequent child immunization. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the net impact of ANC visits on subsequent utilization of child immunization after removing the presence of selection bias. Nationwide data from India’s latest National Family Health Survey conducted during 2005–06 is used for the present study. The analysis has been carried out in the two separate models, in the first model 1–2 ANC visit and in the second model three or more ANC visits has been compared with no visit. We have used propensity score matching method with a counterfactual model that assesses the actual ANC visits effect on treated (ANC visits) and untreated groups (no ANC visit), and have employed Mantel-Haenszel bounds to examine whether result would be free from hidden bias or not. Using matched sample analysis result shows that child immunization among the groups of women who have completed 1–2 ANC visits and those who had more than two visits was about 13 percent and 19 percent respectively, higher than the group of women who have not made any ANC visit. Findings of nearest neighbor matching with replacement method, which completely eliminated the bias, indicate that selection bias present in data set leads to overestimates the positive effects of ANC visits on child immunization. Result based on Mantel-Haenszel bounds method suggest that if around 19 percent bias would be involved in the result then also we could observe the true positive effect of 1–2 ANC visits on child immunization. This also indicates that antenatal clinics are the conventional platforms for educating pregnant women on the benefits of child immunization.     

Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease Receiving Hemodialysis: A Population-Based Study

Background

Little is known on the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in ESRD patients. This study compared the incidence of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD) between cohorts with and without influenza vaccination.

Methods

We used the insurance claims data from 1998 to 2009 in Taiwan to determine the incidence of these events within one year after influenza vaccination in the vaccine (N = 831) and the non-vaccine (N = 3187) cohorts. The vaccine cohort to the non-vaccine cohort incidence rate ratio and hazard ratio (HR) of morbidities and mortality were measured.

Results

The age-specific analysis showed that the elderly in the vaccine cohort had lower hospitalization rate (100.8 vs. 133.9 per 100 person-years), contributing to an overall HR of 0.81 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72–0.90). The vaccine cohort also had an adjusted HR of 0.85 [95% CI 0.75–0.96] for heart disease. The corresponding incidence of pneumonia and influenza was 22.4 versus 17.2 per 100 person-years, but with an adjusted HR of 0.80 (95% CI 0.64–1.02). The vaccine cohort had lowered risks than the non-vaccine cohort for intensive care unit (ICU) admission (adjusted HR 0.20, 95% CI 0.12–0.33) and mortality (adjusted HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.41–0.60). The time-dependent Cox model revealed an overall adjusted HR for mortality of 0.30 (95% CI 0.26–0.35) after counting vaccination for multi-years.

Conclusions

ESRD patients with HD receiving the influenza vaccination could have reduced risks of pneumonia/influenza and other morbidities, ICU stay, hospitalization and death, particularly for the elderly.     

Social Environment and Agonistic Interactions: Strategies in a Small Social Mammal

In group‐living species, the development of agonistic interactions among conspecifics may be affected by socio‐ecological factors, such as size and composition of social group, and availability of nests and food. We analysed the importance of size and composition of social groups on agonistic interactions among males in the Southern mountain cavy (Microcavia australis). We made behavioural observations in four social groups of different size and composition. We recorded two types of agonistic interactions: agonistic displays and direct agonistic behaviours; both types increased in the breeding season. A social group composed of a high number of males was associated with high frequency of agonistic displays. Direct agonistic behaviours were also influenced by the interaction of season and number of males per social group and number of females per social group. Agonistic interactions were also recorded among males of different socials groups in the breeding season. Agonistic displays were most frequent among males of the same social group, whereas direct agonistic behaviours were most common among males of different social groups. These results suggest that social factors affect agonistic interactions among males of Southern mountain cavy and that in a conflict situation, males develop different strategies, such as increased frequency of agonistic behaviours in breeding season and intragroup cooperation for defence of oestrous females.