Effect of harvesting on the genetic diversity and dynamic behavior of a limited mendelian population

A mathematical model of the changes in the size and genetic diversity of a harvested, single-locus Mendelian population under the conditions of density-dependent selection is analyzed, with a special emphasis on the possibility of conserving or loosing polymorphism as a result of equilibrium harvesting. It is demonstrated that harvesting leads to changes in intrapopulation parameters under the conditions of density-dependent selection; as a result, the genotypes that were the least fit in an unharvested population will prove more fit, the genetic composition of the population at equilibrium being changed accordingly. Thus, harvesting may, under different conditions, either conserve or reduce the genetic diversity of the population.     

QUANTIFYING EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL OF MARINE FISH LARVAE: HERITABILITY,SELECTION, AND EVOLUTIONARY CONSTRAINTS

For many marine fish, intense larval mortality may provide considerable opportunity for selection, yet much less is known about the evolutionary potential of larval traits. We combined field demographic studies and manipulative experiments to estimate quantitative genetic parameters for both larval size and swimming performance for a natural population of a common coral‐reef fish, the bicolor damselfish (Stegastes partitus). We also examined selection on larval size by synthesizing information from published estimates of selective mortality. We introduce a method that uses the Lande–Arnold framework for examining selection on quantitative traits to empirically reconstruct adaptive landscapes. This method allows the relationship between phenotypic value and fitness components to be described across a broad range of trait values. Our results suggested that despite strong viability selection for large larvae and moderate heritability (h²= 0.29), evolutionary responses of larvae would likely be balanced by reproductive selection favoring mothers that produce more, smaller offspring. Although long‐term evolutionary responses of larval traits may be constrained by size‐number trade‐offs, our results suggest that phenotypic variation in larval size may be an ecologically important source of variability in population dynamics through effects on larval survival and recruitment to benthic populations.     

Genotype by environment interactions in winter survival in red deer

1. The extent to which environmental heterogeneity interacts with genetic hetero geneity to affect individual fitness within populations has the potential to affect the dynamics of natural populations and the amount of genetic variation maintained in natural populations, yet is a relatively poorly investigated topic in either ecology or evolutionary biology.
2. Many individual-based studies are precluded from such investigations by the practical problems of measuring heritability of traits affecting fitness and the difficulties of experimental manipulation of the study population. One way of demonstrating how commonly genotype by environmental interactions affect fitness, though not their overall importance in determining fitness, is to investigate fitness in a population subdivided by genotype at one or more marker loci.
3. We analyse data on calf winter survival from a population of red deer from the Isle of Rum, Scotland. Data on individual survival, environmental fluctuations and genotype at 13 loci were collected from 1982 to 1994.
4. We found associations between survival over the first winter of life and calf genotype at two out of three allozyme loci and five out of 10 microsatellite loci. All of the results remained significant under randomization tests. Other genotypes that initially appeared to have an association with survival were rejected when bootstrapped, usually due to insufficient data or anomalies in the data.
5. Our results suggest that associations between fitness and genotype are common. Five out of the seven associations found involved interactions with environmental variables. Four of these showed density-dependent selection with different genotypes showing high survival at high population size compared to low population size and one interacted with autumn rainfall. In a sixth case, genotype interacted with sex.     

IS THE POPULATION SIZE OF A SPECIES RELEVANT TO ITS EVOLUTION?

Abstract This paper examines aspects of genetic draft, the stochastic force induced by substitutions at one locus on the dynamics of a closely linked locus. Of particular interest is the role of population size on genetic draft. Remarkably, the rate of substitution of weakly selected advantageous mutations decreases with increasing population size, whereas that for deleterious mutations increases with population size. This dependency on population size is the opposite of that for genetic drift. Moreover, these rates are only weakly dependent on population size, again contrary to the strong dependency of drift‐based dynamics. Four models of the strongly selected loci responsible for genetic draft are examined. Three of these exhibit a very weak dependency on population size, which implies that their induced effects will also be weakly dependent on population size. Together, these results suggest that population size and binomial sampling may not be relevant to a species' evolution. If this is the case, then a number of evolutionary conundrums are resolved.     

Selection maintains MHC diversity through a natural population bottleneck

A perceived consequence of a population bottleneck is the erosion of genetic diversity and concomitant reduction in individual fitness and evolutionary potential. Although reduced genetic variation associated with demographic perturbation has been amply demonstrated for neutral molecular markers, the effective management of genetic resources in natural populations is hindered by a lack of understanding of how adaptive genetic variation will respond to population fluctuations, given these are affected by selection as well as drift. Here, we demonstrate that selection counters drift to maintain polymorphism at a major histocompatibility complex (MHC) locus through a population bottleneck in an inbred island population of water voles. Before and after the bottleneck, MHC allele frequencies were close to balancing selection equilibrium but became skewed by drift when the population size was critically low. MHC heterozygosity generally conformed to Hardy-Weinberg expectations except in one generation during the population recovery where there was a significant excess of heterozygous genotypes, which simulations ascribed to strong differential MHC-dependent survival. Low allelic diversity and highly skewed frequency distributions at microsatellite loci indicated potent genetic drift due to a strong founder affect and/or previous population bottlenecks. This study is a real-time examination of the predictions of fundamental evolutionary theory in low genetic diversity situations. The findings highlight that conservation efforts to maintain the genetic health and evolutionary potential of natural populations should consider the genetic basis for fitness-related traits, and how such adaptive genetic diversity will vary in response to both the demographic fluctuations and the effects of selection.     

Symbiont survival and host-symbiont disequilibria under differential vertical transmission

Interspecific genetic interactions in host-symbiont systems raise intriguing coevolutionary questions and may influence the effectiveness of public health and management policies. Here we present an analytical and numerical investigation of the effects of host genetic heterogeneity in the rate of vertical transmission of a symbiont. We consider the baseline case with a monomorphic symbiont and a single diallelic locus in its diploid host, where vertical transmission is the sole force. Our analysis introduces interspecific disequilibria to quantify nonrandom associations between host genotypes and alleles and symbiont presence/absence. The transient and equilibrium behavior is examined in simulations with randomly generated initial conditions and transmission parameters. Compared to the case where vertical transmission rates are uniform across host genotypes, differential transmission (i) increases average symbiont survival from 50% to almost 60%, (ii) dramatically reduces the minimum average transmission rate for symbiont survival from 0.5 to 0.008, and (iii) readily creates permanent host-symbiont disequilibria de novo, whereas uniform transmission can neither create nor maintain such associations. On average, heterozygotes are slightly more likely to carry and maintain the symbiont in the population and are more randomly associated with the symbiont. Results show that simple evolutionary forces can create substantial nonrandom associations between two species.     

The evolution of mate choice in a fluctuating environment

This paper analyzes the evolutionary dynamics of a locus controlling the degree of female mating preference in a temporally fluctuating environment. Preference for mating with males with respect to their genotypes at a locus that is subject to temporally varying natural selection pressure is considered first. With weak selection and free recombination between the choice locus and the selected locus, preference for mating with heterozygotes appears to be favored. With strong selection, preference for homozygous mates may be favored. In each case, choice alleles may increase from very low initial frequencies to near fixation, in contrast to previous models of mate choice in varying environments. Linkages between the two loci has complex effects on the strength and direction of selection for mate choice. Preference for mating with males with the currently fitter genotypes at the locus under natural selection is also modelled. Provided that the environmental period is not too short, a rare allele conferring such preference may be favored and spread to fixation. Strong natural selection, tight linkage and a short environmental period may produce polymorphism for the level of mate choice.     

Acquired immunity and stochasticity in epidemic intervals impede the evolution of host disease resistance

Disease can generate intense selection pressure on host populations, but here we show that acquired immunity in a population subject to repeated disease outbreaks can impede the evolution of genetic disease resistance by maintaining susceptible genotypes in the population. Interference between the life-history schedule of a species and periodicity of the disease has unintuitive effects on selection intensity, and stochasticity in outbreak period further reduces the rate of spread of disease-resistance alleles. A general age-structured population genetic model was developed and parameterized using empirical data for phocine distemper virus (PDV) epizootics in harbor seals. Scenarios with acquired immunity had lower levels of epizootic mortality compared with scenarios without acquired immunity for the first PDV outbreaks, but this pattern was reversed after about five disease cycles. Without acquired immunity, evolution of disease resistance was more rapid, and long-term population size variation is efficiently dampened. Acquired immunity has the potential to significantly influence rapid evolutionary dynamics of a host population in response to age-structured disease selection and to alter predicted selection intensities compared with epidemiological models that do not consider such feedback. This may have important implications for evolutionary population dynamics in a range of human, agricultural, and wildlife disease settings.     

A Monte Carlo simulation model for studying evolution in age-structured populations

This model provides for any number of genotypes defined by age-specific survival and fecundity rates in a population with completely overlapping generations and growing under the control of density-governing functions affecting survival or fecundity. It is tested in situations involving two alleles at one locus. Nonselection populations at Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium obey the ecogenetic law; i.e., each genotype follows Lotka's law regarding rate of increase and stable age distribution as if it were an independent true-breeding population. Populations experiencing age- and density-independent selection approximate this situation, and the changes in gene frequency are predicted by relative fitnesses bases on λ, the finite rate of increase of the genotypes. Polymorphic gene equilibria occurring at steady-state population sizes are determined by fitnesses based on R, the net reproductive rate. In examples involving differences in generation time produced by age-dependent differences in fecundity, the allele associated with longer generation time may be favored or opposed by selection, depending on whether the density-governing factor controlling population size affects survival or fecundity. If such genotypes have similar R's, a genetic equilibrium may be established if the population is governed by a density function acting upon fecundity. Received: August 23, 1999 / Accepted: July 13, 2000     

Selection for Increased Mutation Rates with Fertility Differences between Matings

Previous studies of mutation modification have considered models in which selection is a result of viability differences that are sex symmetric. The results of a numerical study of a model in which selection is a result of fertility differences between mated pairs demonstrate that the type of selection to which a population is subject can have a significant impact on the evolution of various parameters of the genetic system. When the fertility of matings between individuals with different genotypes exceeds the fertility of at least some of the matings between individuals with the same genotype, selection may favor increased rates of mutation, in contrast to the results from all existing constant viability models with random mating and infinite population size. Increased mutation rates are most frequently favored when forward and back mutation occur at approximately equal rates and when the modifying locus is loosely linked to the selected locus. We present one example in which selection favors increased rates of mutation even though the selection scheme is reducible to one of differential viability between the sexes.     

Molecular ecological approaches to studying the evolutionary impact of selective harvesting in wildlife

Harvesting of wildlife populations by humans is usually targeted by sex, age or phenotypic criteria, and is therefore selective. Selective harvesting has the potential to elicit a genetic response from the target populations in several ways. First, selective harvesting may affect population demographic structure (age structure, sex ratio), which in turn may have consequences for effective population size and hence genetic diversity. Second, wildlife-harvesting regimes that use selective criteria based on phenotypic characteristics (e.g. minimum body size, horn length or antler size) have the potential to impose artificial selection on harvested populations. If there is heritable genetic variation for the target characteristic and harvesting occurs before the age of maturity, then an evolutionary response over time may ensue. Molecular ecological techniques offer ways to predict and detect genetic change in harvested populations, and therefore have great utility for effective wildlife management. Molecular markers can be used to assess the genetic structure of wildlife populations, and thereby assist in the prediction of genetic impacts by delineating evolutionarily meaningful management units. Genetic markers can be used for monitoring genetic diversity and changes in effective population size and breeding systems. Tracking evolutionary change at the phenotypic level in the wild through quantitative genetic analysis can be made possible by genetically determined pedigrees. Finally, advances in genome sequencing and bioinformatics offer the opportunity to study the molecular basis of phenotypic variation through trait mapping and candidate gene approaches. With this understanding, it could be possible to monitor the selective impacts of harvesting at a molecular level in the future. Effective wildlife management practice needs to consider more than the direct impact of harvesting on population dynamics. Programs that utilize molecular genetic tools will be better positioned to assess the long-term evolutionary impact of artificial selection on the evolutionary trajectory and viability of harvested populations.     

MetaPopGen: an r package to simulate population genetics in large size metapopulations

Population genetics simulation models are useful tools to study the effects of demography and environmental factors on genetic variation and genetic differentiation. They allow for studying species and populations with complex life histories, spatial distribution and many other complicating factors that make analytical treatment impracticable. Most simulation models are individual‐based: this poses a limitation to simulation of very large populations because of the limits in computer memory and long computation times. To overcome these limitations, we propose an intermediate approach that allows modelling of very complex demographic scenarios, which would be intractable with analytical models, and removes the limitations imposed by large population size, which affect individual‐based simulation models. We implement this approach in a software package for the r environment, MetaPopGen. The innovative concept of this approach with respect to the other population genetic simulators is that it focuses on genotype numbers rather than on individuals. Genotype numbers are iterated through time by using random number generators for appropriate probabilistic distributions to reproduce the stochasticity inherent to Mendelian segregation, survival, dispersal and reproduction. Features included in the model are age structure, monoecious and dioecious (or separate sexes) life cycles, mutation, dispersal and selection. The model simulates only one locus at a time. All demographic parameters can be genotype‐, sex‐, age‐, deme‐ and time‐dependent. MetaPopGen is therefore indicated to study large populations and very complex demographic scenarios. We illustrate the capabilities of MetaPopGen by applying it to the case of a marine fish metapopulation in the Mediterranean Sea.     

Stability of the G-matrix in a population experiencing pleiotropic mutation, stabilizing selection, and genetic drift

Abstract. Quantitative genetics theory provides a framework that predicts the effects of selection on a phenotype consisting of a suite of complex traits. However, the ability of existing theory to reconstruct the history of selection or to predict the future trajectory of evolution depends upon the evolutionary dynamics of the genetic variance-covariance matrix (G-matrix). Thus, the central focus of the emerging field of comparative quantitative genetics is the evolution of the G-matrix. Existing analytical theory reveals little about the dynamics of G, because the problem is too complex to be mathematically tractable. As a first step toward a predictive theory of G-matrix evolution, our goal was to use stochastic computer models to investigate factors that might contribute to the stability of G over evolutionary time. We were concerned with the relatively simple case of two quantitative traits in a population experiencing stabilizing selection, pleiotropic mutation, and random genetic drift. Our results show that G-matrix stability is enhanced by strong correlational selection and large effective population size. In addition, the nature of mutations at pleiotropic loci can dramatically influence stability of G. In particular, when a mutation at a single locus simultaneously changes the value of the two traits (due to pleiotropy) and these effects are correlated, mutation can generate extreme stability of G. Thus, the central message of our study is that the empirical question regarding G-matrix stability is not necessarily a general question of whether G is stable across various taxonomic levels. Rather, we should expect the G-matrix to be extremely stable for some suites of characters and unstable for others over similar spans of evolutionary time.     

Rapid evolutionary escape by large populations from local fitness peaks is likely in nature

Fitness interactions between loci in the genome, or epistasis, can result in mutations that are individually deleterious but jointly beneficial. Such epistasis gives rise to multiple peaks on the genotypic fitness landscape. The problem of evolutionary escape from such local peaks has been a central problem of evolutionary genetics for at least 75 years. Much attention has focused on models of small populations, in which the sequential fixation of valley genotypes carrying individually deleterious mutations operates most quickly owing to genetic drift. However, valley genotypes can also be subject to mutation while transiently segregating, giving rise to copies of the high fitness escape genotype carrying the jointly beneficial mutations. In the absence of genetic recombination, these mutations may then fix simultaneously. The time for this process declines sharply with increasing population size, and it eventually comes to dominate evolutionary behavior. Here we develop an analytic expression for N(crit), the critical population size that defines the boundary between these regimes, which shows that both are likely to operate in nature. Frequent recombination may disrupt high-fitness escape genotypes produced in populations larger than N(crit) before they reach fixation, defining a third regime whose rate again slows with increasing population size. We develop a novel expression for this critical recombination rate, which shows that in large populations the simultaneous fixation of mutations that are beneficial only jointly is unlikely to be disrupted by genetic recombination if their map distance is on the order of the size of single genes. Thus, counterintuitively, mass selection alone offers a biologically realistic resolution to the problem of evolutionary escape from local fitness peaks in natural populations.     

Modelling single nucleotide effects in phosphoglucose isomerase on dispersal in the Glanville fritillary butterfly: coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics

Dispersal comprises a complex life-history syndrome that influences the demographic dynamics of especially those species that live in fragmented landscapes, the structure of which may in turn be expected to impose selection on dispersal. We have constructed an individual-based evolutionary sexual model of dispersal for species occurring as metapopulations in habitat patch networks. The model assumes correlated random walk dispersal with edge-mediated behaviour (habitat selection) and spatially correlated stochastic local dynamics. The model is parametrized with extensive data for the Glanville fritillary butterfly. Based on empirical results for a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, we assume that dispersal rate in the landscape matrix, fecundity and survival are affected by a locus with two alleles, A and C, individuals with the C allele being more mobile. The model was successfully tested with two independent empirical datasets on spatial variation in Pgi allele frequency. First, at the level of local populations, the frequency of the C allele is the highest in newly established isolated populations and the lowest in old isolated populations. Second, at the level of sub-networks with dissimilar numbers and connectivities of patches, the frequency of C increases with decreasing network size and hence with decreasing average metapopulation size. The frequency of C is the highest in landscapes where local extinction risk is high and where there are abundant opportunities to establish new populations. Our results indicate that the strength of the coupling of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics depends on the spatial scale and is asymmetric, demographic dynamics having a greater immediate impact on genetic dynamics than vice versa.     

Lifetime selection on heritable life-history traits in a natural population of red squirrels

Abstract Despite their importance in evolutionary biology, heritability and the strength of natural selection have rarely been estimated in wild populations of iteroparous species or have usually been limited to one particular event during an organism's lifetime. Using an animal-model restricted maximum likelihood and phenotypic selection models, we estimated quantitative genetic parameters and the strength of lifetime selection on parturition date and litter size at birth in a natural population of North American red squirrels, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus. Litter size at birth and parturition date had low heritabilities ( h² = 0.15 and 0.16, respectively). We considered potential effects of temporal environmental covariances between phenotypes and fitness and of spatial environmental heterogeneity in estimates of selection. Selection favored early breeders and females that produced litter sizes close to the population average. Stabilizing selection on litter size at birth may occur because of a trade-off between number of offspring produced per litter and offspring survival or a trade-off between a female's fecundity and her future reproductive success and survival.     

Evolutionary rescue under demographic and environmental stochasticity

Populations suffer two types of stochasticity: demographic stochasticity, from sampling error in offspring number, and environmental stochasticity, from temporal variation in the growth rate. By modelling evolution through phenotypic selection following an abrupt environmental change, we investigate how genetic and demographic dynamics, as well as effects on population survival of the genetic variance and of the strength of stabilizing selection, differ under the two types of stochasticity. We show that population survival probability declines sharply with stronger stabilizing selection under demographic stochasticity, but declines more continuously when environmental stochasticity is strengthened. However, the genetic variance that confers the highest population survival probability differs little under demographic and environmental stochasticity. Since the influence of demographic stochasticity is stronger when population size is smaller, a slow initial decline of genetic variance, which allows quicker evolution, is important for population persistence. In contrast, the influence of environmental stochasticity is population-size-independent, so higher initial fitness becomes important for survival under strong environmental stochasticity. The two types of stochasticity interact in a more than multiplicative way in reducing the population survival probability. Our work suggests the importance of explicitly distinguishing and measuring the forms of stochasticity during evolutionary rescue.     

Demographic consequences of changing body size in a terrestrial salamander

Changes in climate can alter individual body size, and the resulting shifts in reproduction and survival are expected to impact population dynamics and viability. However, appropriate methods to account for size‐dependent demographic changes are needed, especially in understudied yet threatened groups such as amphibians. We investigated individual‐ and population‐level demographic effects of changes in body size for a terrestrial salamander using capture–mark–recapture data. For our analysis, we implemented an integral projection model parameterized with capture–recapture likelihood estimates from a Bayesian framework. Our study combines survival and growth data from a single dataset to quantify the influence of size on survival while including different sources of uncertainty around these parameters, demonstrating how selective forces can be studied in populations with limited data and incomplete recaptures. We found a strong dependency of the population growth rate on changes in individual size, mediated by potential changes in selection on mean body size and on maximum body size. Our approach of simultaneous parameter estimation can be extended across taxa to identify eco‐evolutionary mechanisms acting on size‐specific vital rates, and thus shaping population dynamics and viability.