Simulation of the population dynamics and social structure of the Virunga mountain gorillas

An agent-based model was developed to simulate the growth rate, age structure, and social system of the endangered mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in the Virunga Volcanoes region. The model was used to compare two types of data: 1) estimates of the overall population size, age structure, and social structure, as measured by six censuses of the entire region that were conducted in 1971-2000; and 2) information about birth rates, mortality rates, dispersal patterns, and other life history events, as measured from three to five habituated research groups since 1967. On the basis of the research-group data, the "base simulation" predicted a higher growth rate than that observed from the census data (3% vs. 1%). This was as expected, because the research groups have indeed grown faster than the overall population. Additional simulations suggested that the research groups primarily have a lower mortality rate, rather than higher birth rates, compared to the overall population. Predictions from the base simulation generally fell within the range of census values for the average group size, the percentage of multimale groups, and the distribution of females among groups. However, other discrepancies predicted from the research-group data were a higher percentage of adult males than observed, an overestimation of the number of multimale groups with more than two silverbacks, and an overestimated number of groups with only two or three members. Possible causes for such discrepancies include inaccuracies in the census techniques used, and/or limitations with the long-term demographic data set obtained from only a few research groups of a long-lived species. In particular, estimates of mortality and male dispersal obtained from the research groups may not be representative of the entire population. Our final simulation addressed these discrepancies, and provided a better basis for further studies on the complex relationships among individual life history events, group composition, population age structure, and growth rate patterns.     

(Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases

The metapopulation concept provides a very powerful tool for analysing the persistence of spatially-disaggregated populations, in terms of a balance between local extinction and colonization. Exactly the same approach has been developed by epidemiologists, in order to understand patterns of diseases persistence. There is great scope for further cross-fertilization between areas. Recent work on the spatitemporal dynamics of measles illustrates that the large datasets and rich modelling literature on many infectious diseases offer great potential for developing and testing ideas about metapopulations.     

Microsatellite DNA markers for the study of population structure and dynamics in nutria (Myocastor coypus)

We document the isolation and characterization of 27 microsatellite DNA markers for nutria, or coypu (Myocastor coypus), an invasive rodent introduced to North America as a domestic furbearer. Markers revealed moderate levels of diversity (averaging 5.0 alleles/locus) and heterozygosity (averaging 46%). Genotypic frequencies at 25 of 27 (93%) markers conformed to Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium expectations and no linkage disequilibrium was observed in a M. coypus collection (N = 64) from Maryland, USA. We believe this suite of markers to yield sufficient diversity to resolve patterns of effective migration among subpopulations, breeding structure, and demographics. This information can be instrumental to eradication programs that attempt to prevent recolonization among subpopulations.     

Simulation modelling of the population dynamics of cereal aphids

A simulation model explaining the population dynamics of the grain aphid (Sitobion avenae), a serious pest of wheat in Western Europe, is described. The model includes the effects of crop development and some natural enemies on the biology of the aphid. It is concluded that although much of the population dynamics of the aphid, especially in relation to its host plant, is now well understood, many uncertainties still remain concerning natural enemies. As these organisms seem able to prevent cereal aphid outbreaks, in some years, these gaps are presently preventing the development of a reliable forecasting scheme.     

Seasonal dynamics of the population structure of Sphaerostomum globiporum (Trematoda: Opecoelidae) maritae in Ladoga Lake

Data on the seasonal dynamics of population structure is obtained for the first time for the Trematode species Sphaerostomum globiporum from roach Rutilus rutilus (L) in Ladoga Lake, which situates in the northern limit of the distribution range of this species. The parasites infest the host in October and leave it from the end of July to the beginning of August. The maximum of the magnitude of the Trematode population falls on spring, and the minimum is observed in summer. In August and September roach is free of the parasites. It is established that the period of maturing occupies 10 months for S. globiporum from roach in Ladoga Lake. The prereproductive period takes 5 months and comes to the end in February. The reproductive period occupies 5 months too. Although these two periods of the parasite's life cycle do not separated from each other clearly, an overlapping of two generations was not observed, unlike the case of more southern water bodies.     

采伐对红松种群结构与动态的影响

红松是我国长白山阔叶红松林的主要建群种,受森林采伐的影响,种群数量急剧下降,现已被列为国家二级保护植物。通过绘制种群静态生命表、生存函数、存活曲线和径级分布图,研究原始林,15%择伐、40%择伐和皆伐后恢复的天然次生林内,红松种群结构和动态的变化规律。结果表明:(1)采伐干扰对红松种群的波动周期影响不大,15%的择伐强度可以提高红松种群的生存期望。(2)原始林和15%择伐林内红松种群存活曲线均为DeeveyⅡ型,种群处于稳定期;40%择伐林内存活曲线介于DeeveyⅡ型和DeeveyⅢ型之间,种群由稳定期向成熟期过渡;皆伐林内存活曲线为DeeveyⅠ型,种群处在增长期。(3)原始阔叶红松林林、15%择伐林和40%择伐林内,红松种群径级结构均呈稳定的倒J型,且在幼树阶段均存在生长更新的停滞现象;与原始林相比,15%择伐林内幼树比例略有下降;40%择伐林和皆伐迹地,随采伐强度的增加,幼树比例明显增大。(4)方差分析表明,4个种群的生存过程差异较大,采伐干扰对红松种群生存过程的影响达到显著水平。     

Seasonal dynamics of the phenotypic structure of a population of the paper wasp Polistes dominulus (Christ) (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)

Seasonal changes in the coloration of the clypeus, mesonotum, and abdomen were studied in populations of the paper wasp, Polistes dominulus (Christ) in southern Ukraine. The color patterns in the populations were found to be different before and after hibernation. The frequencies of color morphs observed in the autumns of different years are similar, while the frequencies observed in spring vary from year to year. A tendency for pleometrosis is manifested by females of different color morphs in different years. The nest usurpers have darker patterns of the clypeus. A polyfunctional role of the coloration and pattern is supposed.     

Population dynamics and population structure ofFerrissia wautieri (Mirolli, 1960) (Gastropoda,Ancylidae) in a pond near Nijmegen (The Netherlands)

Ferrissia wautieri, a freshwater limpet, is a widely distributed species in The Netherlands. In a pond near Nijmegen samples were taken twice a month over the year to study the population size and structure of this species in relation to the water temperature. Only ancyloids were found. Production of juveniles is temperature-dependent; peak numbers occurred in July and August. Just-hatched juveniles (shell length 0.6–1.0 mm) occurred over a lengthy period in the year, but were absent in March and April. During these months the collected numbers of specimens were very low. The largest specimens were collected during March, April and May.     

Seasonal dynamics of population genetic structure in cryptic taxa of the Pellioditis marina complex (Nematoda: Rhabditida)

The distribution patterns and genetic structure of the Pellioditis marina species complex in Belgium and The Netherlands were compared between four consecutive seasons. Different types of habitats (coast, estuary, semi-estuary and lake) with different degrees of connectivity were sampled. In addition, each habitat type was characterised by either temporal or permanent algal deposits. We screened 426 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase c (COI) gene with the single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) method in 1615 individuals of Pellioditis marina. The 51 haplotypes were divided into four (sympatric) lineages, with divergences ranging from 0.25 to 10.6%. Our results show that the lineages have different temporal dynamics, which may be linked to abiotic factors. Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) indicated a significant structuring in the PmI lineage, which correlated with habitat characteristics and which changed over time (Mantel, r = 0.51; p = 0.126). Intrapopulational diversity was similar in all locations, and temporal changes in haplotype frequencies were not higher in temporary than in permanent algal deposits. Instead, the results of the temporal survey indicated that (some) P. marina populations are characterised by a metapopulation structure. It is emphasized that a complete and correct interpretation of processes causing genetic structuring within species and of the genetic structure itself can only be done when analyses are performed at several time points.     

Seasonal population dynamics in Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

In this study the seasonal variation of fecundity, wing and tibia sizes were investigated in natural populations of Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann) as an attempt to determine the variations in life history of the species associated to seasonality. Specimens of L. eximia were monthly collected in Botucatu, S?o Paulo, Brazil, during two years and the adult females dissected to estimate fecundity. Body size was estimated by measuring wing and tibia. Fecundity and body size were seasonally analysed. A relatively constant temporal trajectory was found for fecundity, wing and tibia size over twenty-four months. Strong positive correlations between wing and tibia size, fecundity and wing and fecundity and tibia were observed. The maintenance of stable values in L. eximia indicates that it has suffered little seasonal influence over the period analysed. This result confirms the demographics and life history stable profile of the species in spite of seasonal climatic changes observed in the study area.     

The replicator dynamics with n players and population structure

The well-known replicator dynamics is usually applied to 2-player games and random matching. Here we allow for games with n players, and for population structures other than random matching. This more general application leads to a version of the replicator dynamics of which the standard 2-player, well-mixed version is a special case, and which allows us to explore the dynamic implications of population structure. The replicator dynamics also allows for a reformulation of the central theorem in Van Veelen (2009), which claims that inclusive fitness gives the correct prediction for games with generalized equal gains from switching (or, in other words, when fitness effects are additive). If we furthermore also assume that relatedness is constant during selection - which is a reasonable assumption in a setting with kin recognition - then inclusive fitness even becomes a parameter that determines the speed as well as the direction of selection. For games with unequal gains from switching, inclusive fitness can give the wrong prediction. With equal gains however, not only the sign, but also even the value of inclusive fitness becomes meaningful.     

Successional features of the dynamics of abundance and population structure of the cestode Proteocephalus longicollis (Zeder, 1800) (Cestoda: Proteocephalidae)

Dynamics of abundance and changes of populations structure were investigated in a host-specific parasite of salmonids, cestode Proteocephalus longicollis from the vendace Coregonus albula L. of the Syamozero Lake during the period of more than forty years. A relative stability of the values of infestation indices independently of significant changes in the abundance and population structure of the vendace is established. Changes in the distribution of abundance and population structure of P. longicollis are shown to be connected with the change of the water body's status resulting from eutrophication. These changes can be considered as reliable indices of the succession in freshwater bodies.     

The effects of stochastic population dynamics on food web structure

We develop a stochastic, individual-based model for food web simulation which in the large-population limit reduces to the well-studied Webworld model, which has been used to successfully construct model food webs with several realistic features. We demonstrate that an almost exact match is found between the population dynamics in fixed food webs, and that the demographic fluctuations have systematic effects when the new model is used to construct food webs due to the presence of species with small populations.     

Impacts of selective logging on population structure and dynamics of a canopy tree (Olea capensis) in Kakamega forest

This study assessed the impacts of logging on the population structure and dynamics of Elgon teak (Olea capensis), a canopy dominant in Kakamega forest. The objective was to ascertain and determine the regeneration status of this tree species in view of its commercial value. A comparison was made between logged and unlogged sections at three sites in the forest. Pairwise comparisons of the differences in the population structure among three sites and the differences in the mean tree size revealed significant differences in all three study sites. Results also revealed a variation in stem density that was dependent on the block of forest under study. Results of the spatial contagion revealed that O. capensis had a varied clumped distribution in all the study sites. Clumping was highest in the Kisere forest. These results point to logging as the major factor that explains the differences in population structure and stem density in different parts of Kakamega forest. And while intermittent recruitment may explain clumped distribution, logging appears to explain the variation in the degree of clumping.     

Western corn rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte) population dynamics

1 The western corn rootworm Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte is a major insect pest of field maize, Zea mays L. Larvae can cause substantial injury by feeding on maize roots. Larval feeding may destroy individual roots or root nodes, and reduce plant growth, stability, and yield. Costs associated with managing corn rootworms in continuous maize are annually one of the largest expenditures for insect management in the United States Corn Belt.
2 Even though D. virgifera virgifera has been studied intensively for over 50 years, there is renewed interest in the biology, ecology, and genetics of this species because of its ability to rapidly adapt to management tactics, and its aggressive invasive nature.
3 This article provides a comprehensive review of D. virgifera virgifera population dynamics, specifically: diapause, larval and adult development, seasonality, spatial and temporal dynamics at local and landscape scales, invasiveness in North America and Europe, and non-trophic interactions with other arthropods.
4 Gaps in current knowledge are identified and discussed especially within the context of challenges that scientists in North America and Europe are currently facing regarding pest dynamics and the need to develop appropriate management strategies for each geographic area.     

Inbreeding and population dynamics of the Chillingham cattle (Bos taurus)

The Chillingham herd of white cattle has been isolated and confined in a park in northern England for several centuries. Blood grouping confirmed the cattle to be remarkably homozygous. Random fixation of harmful alleles and consequent extinction have presumably been prevented by selection, and this paper discusses possible selective processes and the ways in which these have changed over the last hundred years. Herd records from 1862 to 1899 and 1953 to 1985 show that, in the former period, but not the latter, culling and castration took place. In both periods, breeding was not seasonal. Herd fertility (calves born per female) was higher in the latter period. Between 1953 and 1985, calves which survived for at least 12 months had a median date of birth (25 June) a month later than that of calves which did not survive. Conception intervals were rather longer and fecundity lower than those observed in commercial cattle. K-factor analysis showed mortality to differ in its causes between the sexes. A multiple regression model showed January-May rainfall, and population size on 1 January to influence mortality rate of the January-May period. The Chillingham cattle have evidently been, and continue to be, subjected to rigorous selection and this presumably underlies the survival of this herd.     

Individual culture and experimental population dynamics of Keratella cochlearis (Rotatoria)

A new culture method for K. cochlearis has made it possible to study isolated animals and to investigate the population dynamics of this pelagic rotifer species. The duration of principal developmental stages diminishes continuously with temperature. Decreased survival was associated with a reduced duration of individual fecundity. The age distribution of the population shifted toward younger age intervals with higher temperatures. Growth rates had an optimum at 15°C; the population dynamics, while lower for K. cochlearis than for some other rotifers, were in good agreement with field data.     

The population dynamics of Notothenia rossii from South Georgia (Antarctica)

Summary The population dynamics of nearshore juvenile Notothenia rossii were studied at South Georgia during 1978 and 1979. Mortality of the population was calculated from length-class abundance of fish sampled by trammel nets, and the population size estimated using a mark and recapture technique. Instantaneous natural mortality in the nearshore population was high (M=0.78) although other author's estimate for the mortality in the offshore population was only 0.35. Therefore it is likely that no single estimate of mortality will apply to fish of all ages. The population density of juvenile N. rossii was about 11 g m^-2 nearshore. The size of the offshore population was estimated by calculating survival from the nearshore age classes. The data suggest that the population around South Georgia has been reduced by overfishing to about one tenth of its previous unexploited level. Yield could have been increased by fishing less intensively, and the population maintained at or near its initial level if recruitment remained constant.     

Size structure and dynamics of an invasive population of lineage 2 of Asparagopsis taxiformis (Florideophyceae) in the Alboran Sea

In this study, we present basic population data of the red macroalga Asparagopsis taxiformis, widely recognized as invasive in the Mediterranean Sea. A 13‐month field study was carried out on a population located in southern Spain, addressing its phenology, population dynamics and demography. We further tested whether biomass variations were related to environmental variables at the study site. Gametophytes were present year‐round while tetrasporophytes were only found in spring and summer. Recruitment capacity and vegetative growth of the gametophytes are discussed as important modulators for the population structure and enhancers of its persistence. Thallus size‐time histograms revealed a high prevalence of small shoots that showed high mortality that was not related to self‐thinning. Biomass of A. taxiformis was higher from March to July. Vegetative growth was the main way the gametophyte population was maintained, although the presence of tetrasporophytes and fertile gametophytes in the field confirms that sexual reproduction also occurs. Its continuous and high recruitment, in terms of the number of smallest shoots, makes this southern population of A. taxiformis a source of future invasive populations due to the intensive maritime traffic in the region.