Strong stability and density-dependent evolutionarily stable strategies

Stability conditions for equilibria of the evolution of population strategies in a single species are developed by comparing frequency and density dependent fitnesses of pairs of strategies. Stability of such equilibria is shown for general haploid frequency and density dynamics. It is also shown that this stability is stronger than that of multispecies population dynamical systems. A biological interpretation of the conditions is provided in terms of the fitness of invading subpopulations.     

Maintenance of Genetic Variability under Strong Stabilizing Selection: A Two-Locus Model

We study a two locus model with additive contributions to the phenotype to explore the relationship between stabilizing selection and recombination. We show that if the double heterozygote has the optimum phenotype and the contributions of the loci to the trait are different, then any symmetric stabilizing selection fitness function can maintain genetic variability provided selection is sufficiently strong relative to linkage. We present results of a detailed analysis of the quadratic fitness function which show that selection need not be extremely strong relative to recombination for the polymorphic equilibria to be stable. At these polymorphic equilibria the mean value of the trait, in general, is not equal to the optimum phenotype, there exists a large level of negative linkage disequilibrium which ``hides' additive genetic variance, and different equilibria can be stable simultaneously. We analyze dependence of different characteristics of these equilibria on the location of optimum phenotype, on the difference in allelic effect, and on the strength of selection relative to recombination. Our overall result that stabilizing selection does not necessarily eliminate genetic variability is compatible with some experimental results where the lines subject to strong stabilizing selection did not have significant reductions in genetic variability.     

Frequency-dependent viability selection (a single-locus, multi-phenotype model)

Frequency-dependent natural selection models are examined where the viability of an individual in the diploid population is determined by its phenotype and the frequency of other phenotypes present. The equilibria of the multi-phenotypic system are characterized through local mean fitness functions. It is shown that stability can best be analyzed by combining the principles of maximization of population mean fitness with the evolutionary stability conditions that apply when phenotypic fitnesses relative to the genetic constraints are equal.     

Genetic Loads in Heterogeneous Environments

A model of population structure in heterogeneous environments is described with attention focused on genetic variation at a single locus. The existence of equilibria at which there is no genetic load is examined.--The absolute fitness of any genotype is regarded as a function of location in the niche space and the population density at that location. It is assumed that each organism chooses to live in that habitat in which it is most fit ("optimal habitat selection").--Equilibria at which there is no segregation load ("loadless equilibria") may exist. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of such equilibria are very weak. If there is a sufficient amount of dominance or area in which the alleles are selectively neutral, then there exist equilibria without segregational loads. In the N2p phase plane defined by population size, N, and gene frequency, p, these equilibria generally consist of a line segment which is parallel to the p axis. These equilibria are frequently stable.     

The Maintenance of Genetic Variability in Two-Locus Models of Stabilizing Selection

The maintenance of genetic variability at two diallelic loci under stabilizing selection is investigated. Generations are discrete and nonoverlapping; mating is random; mutation and random genetic drift are absent; selection operates only through viability differences. The determination of the genotypic values is purely additive. The fitness function has its optimum at the value of the double heterozygote and decreases monotonically and symmetrically from its optimum, but is otherwise arbitrary. The resulting fitness scheme is identical to the symmetric viability model. Linkage disequilibrium is neglected, but the results are otherwise exact. Explicit formulas are found for all the equilibria, and explicit conditions are derived fro their existence and stability. A complete classification of the six possible global convergence patterns is presented. In addition to the symmetric equilibrium (with gene frequency 1/2 at both loci), a pair of unsymmetric equilibria may exist; the latter are usually, but not always, unstable. If the ratio of the effect of the major locus to that of the minor one exceeds a critical value, both loci will be stably polymorphic. If selection is weak at the minor locus, the more rapidly the fitness function decreases near the optimum, the lower is this critical value; for rapidly decreasing fitness functions, the critical value is close to one. If the fitness function is smooth at the optimum, then a stable polymorphism exists at both loci only if selection is strong at the major locus.     

SOCIAL SELECTION AND THE EVOLUTION OF ANIMAL SIGNALS

Social selection is presented here as a parallel theory to sexual selection and is defined as a selective force that occurs when individuals change their own social behaviors, responding to signals sent by conspecifics in a way to influence the other individuals' fitness. I analyze the joint evolution of a social signal and behavioral responsiveness to the signal by a quantitative-genetic model. The equilibria of average phenotypes maintained by a balance of social selection and natural selection and their stability are examined for two alternative assumptions on behavioral responsiveness, neutral and adaptive. When behavioral responsiveness is neutral on fitness, a rapid evolution by runaway selection occurs only with enough genetic covariance between the signal and responsiveness. The condition for rapid evolution also depends on natural selection and the number of interacting individuals. When signals convey some information on signalers (e.g., fighting ability), behavioral responsiveness is adaptive such that a receiver's fitness is also influenced by the signal. Here there is a single point of equilibrium. The equilibrium point and its stability do not depend on the genetic correlation. The condition needed for evolution is that the signal is beneficial for receivers, which results from reliability of the signal. Frequency-dependent selection on responsiveness has almost no influence on the equilibrium and the rate of evolution.     

On a genetic model of intraspecific competition and stabilizing selection

A genetic model is investigated in which two recombining loci determine the genotypic value of a quantitative trait additively. Two opposing evolutionary forces are assumed to act: stabilizing selection on the trait, which favors genotypes with an intermediate phenotype, and intraspecific competition mediated by that trait, which favors genotypes whose effect on the trait deviates most from that of the prevailing genotypes. Accordingly, fitnesses of genotypes have a frequency-independent component describing stabilizing selection and a frequency- and density-dependent component modeling competition. We study how the underlying genetics, in particular recombination rate and relative magnitude of allelic effects, interact with the conflicting selective forces and derive the resulting, surprisingly complex equilibrium patterns. We also investigate the conditions under which disruptive selection on the phenotypes can be observed and examine how much genetic variation can be maintained in such a model. We discovered a number of unexpected phenomena. For instance, we found that with little recombination the degree of stably maintained polymorphism and the equilibrium genetic variance can decrease as the strength of competition increases relative to the strength of stabilizing selection. In addition, we found that mean fitness at the stable equilibria is usually much lower than the maximum possible mean fitness and often even lower than the fitness at other, unstable equilibria. Thus, the evolutionary dynamics in this system are almost always nonadaptive.     

Long-term evolution of multilocus traits

 We analyze monomorphic equilibria of long-term evolution for one or two continuous traits, controlled by an arbitrary number of autosomal loci and subject to constant viability selection. It turns out that fitness maximization always obtains at long term equilibria, but in the case of two traits, linkage determines the precise nature of the fitness measure that is maximized. We then consider local convergence to long term equilibria, for two multilocus traits subject to either constant or frequency dependent selection. From a model of long-term dynamics near an equilibrium we derive a criterion of local long-term stability for 2-dimensional equilibria. It turns out that mutation can be a decisive factor for stability. Received 26 January 1994; received in revised form 26 September 1994     

Evolutionary Stability for Interactions among Kin under Quantitative Inheritance

The theory of evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) predicts the long-term evolutionary outcome of frequency-dependent selection by making a number of simplifying assumptions about the genetic basis of inheritance. I use a symmetrized multilocus model of quantitative inheritance without mutation to analyze the results of interactions between pairs of related individuals and compare the equilibria to those found by ESS analysis. It is assumed that the fitness changes due to interactions can be approximated by the exponential of a quadratic surface. The major results are the following. (1) The evolutionarily stable phenotypes found by ESS analysis are always equilibria of the model studied here. (2) When relatives interact, one of the two conditions for stability of equilibria differs between the two models; this can be accounted for by positing that the inclusive fitness function for quantitative characters is slightly different from the inclusive fitness function for characters determined by a single locus. (3) The inclusion of environmental variance will in general change the equilibrium phenotype, but the equilibria of ESS analysis are changed to the same extent by environmental variance. (4) A class of genetically polymorphic equilibria occur, which in the present model are always unstable. These results expand the range of conditions under which one can validly predict the evolution of pairwise interactions using ESS analysis.     

Natural Selection and Y-Linked Polymorphism

Several population genetic models allowing natural selection to act on Y-linked polymorphism are examined. The first incorporates pleiotropic effects of a Y-linked locus, such that viability, segregation distortion, fecundity and sexual selection can all be determined by one locus. It is shown that no set of selection parameters can maintain a stable Y-linked polymorphism. Interaction with the X chromosome is allowed in the next model, with viabilities determined by both X- and Y-linked factors. This model allows four fixation equilibria, two equilibria with X polymorphism and a unique point with both X- and Y-linked polymorphism. Stability analysis shows that the complete polymorphism is never stable. When X- and Y-linked loci influence meiotic drive, it is possible to have all fixation equilibria simultaneously unstable, and yet there is no stable interior equilibrium. Only when viability and meiotic drive are jointly affected by both X- and Y-linked genes can a Y-linked polymorphism be maintained. Unusual dynamics, including stable limit cycles, are generated by this model. Numerical simulations show that only a very small portion of the parameter space admits Y polymorphism, a result that is relevant to the interpretation of levels of Y-DNA sequence variation in natural populations.     

The maintenance (or not) of polygenic variation by soft selection in heterogeneous environments

On the basis of single-locus models, spatial heterogeneity of the environment coupled with strong population regulation within each habitat (soft selection) is considered an important mechanism maintaining genetic variation. We studied the capacity of soft selection to maintain polygenic variation for a trait determined by several additive loci, selected in opposite directions in two habitats connected by dispersal. We found three main types of stable equilibria. Extreme equilibria are characterized by extreme specialization to one habitat and loss of polymorphism. They are analogous to monomorphic equilibria in singe-locus models and are favored by similar factors: high dispersal, weak selection, and low marginal average fitness of intermediate genotypes. At the remaining two types of equilibria the population mean is intermediate but variance is very different. At fully polymorphic equilibria all loci are polymorphic, whereas at low-variance equilibria at most one locus remains polymorphic. For most parameters only one type of equilibrium is stable; the transition between the domains of fully polymorphic and low-variance equilibria is typically sharp. Low-variance equilibria are favored by high marginal average fitness of intermediate genotypes, in contrast to single-locus models, in which marginal overdominance is particularly favorable for maintenance of polymorphism. The capacity of soft selection to maintain polygenic variation is thus more limited than extrapolation from single-locus models would suggest, in particular if dispersal is high and selection weak. This is because in a polygenic model, variance can evolve independently of the mean, whereas in the single-locus two-allele case, selection for an intermediate mean automatically leads to maintenance of polymorphism.     

Selection on age at first and at last reproduction in the long‐lived Alpine Swift Apus melba

The way an organism spreads its reproduction over time is defined as a life‐history trait, and selection is expected to favour life‐history traits associated with the highest fitness return. We use a long‐term dataset of 277 life histories to investigate the shape and strength of selection acting on the age at first reproduction and at last reproduction in the long‐lived Alpine Swift. Both traits were under strong directional selection, but in opposite directions, with selection favouring birds starting their reproductive career early and being able to reproduce for longer. There was also evidence for stabilising selection acting on both traits, suggesting that individuals should nonetheless refrain from reproducing in their first 2 years of life (i.e. when inexperienced), and that reproducing after 7 years of age had little effect on lifetime fitness, probably due to senescence.     

Nonlinear frequency-dependent selection at a single locus with two alleles and two phenotypes

 The paper investigates the discrete frequency dynamics of two phenotype diploid models where genotypic fitness is an exponential function of the expected payoff in the matrix game. Phenotypic and genotypic equilibria are defined and their stability compared to frequency-dependent selection models based on linear fitness when there are two possible phenotypes in the population. In particular, it is shown that stable equilibria of both types can exist in the same nonlinear model. It is also shown that period-doubling bifurcations emerge when there is sufficient selection in favor of interactions between different phenotypes. Received: 22 October 1998     

Density-Dependent Selection Incorporating Intraspecific Competition. II. a Diploid Model

A diploid model is introduced and analyzed in which intraspecific competition is incorporated within the context of density-regulated selection. It is assumed that each genotype has a unique carrying capacity corresponding to the equilibrium population size when only that type is present. Each genotypic fitness at a single diallelic autosomal locus is a decreasing function of a distinctive effective population size perceived as a result of intraspecific competition. The resulting fitnesses are both density and frequency dependent with selective advantage determined by a balance between genotypic carrying capacity and sensitivity to intraspecific competition. A major finding is that intergenotypic interactions may allow genetic variation to be more easily maintained than in the corresponding model of purely density-dependent selection. In addition, numerical study confirms the possible existence of multiple interior equilibria and that neither overdominance in fitness nor carrying capacity is necessary for stability. The magnitude of the equilibrium population size and optimization principles are also discussed.     

Dynamical analysis of density-dependent selection in a discrete one-island migration model

A system of non-linear difference equations is used to model the effects of density-dependent selection and migration in a population characterized by two alleles at a single gene locus. Results for the existence and stability of polymorphic equilibria are established. Properties for a genetically important class of equilibria associated with complete dominance in fitness are described. The birth of an unusual chaotic attractor is also illustrated. This attractor is produced when migration causes chaotic dynamics on a boundary of phase space to bifurcate into the interior of phase space, resulting in bistable genetic polymorphic behavior.     

Population dynamic consequences of allee effects

We take a well-known dynamic model of an isolated, unstructured population and modify this to include a factor that allows for a reduction in fitness due to declining population sizes, often termed an Allee effect. Analysis of the behaviour of this model is carried out on two fronts - determining the equilibrium values and examining the stability of these equilibria. Our results point to the stabilising effect on population dynamics of the Allee effect and an unexpected increase in stability with increased competition due to the interaction between competitive and Allee effects.     

Adaptation to slow environmental change, with apparent anticipation of selection

We investigate a genetic model of a large population of sexual organisms in a changing environment. The organisms are subject to stabilising selection on a quantitative trait, with environmental change causing the fitness optimum to move. When the fitness optimum moves slowly, adaptation to the changing environment occurs by means of reasonably well-separated substitutions at the loci controlling the trait. In this way, the trait generally tracks the moving optimum, but in such a case, the population may exhibit periods of time where the mean trait value overshoots the moving optimal trait value, thereby exhibiting an apparent anticipation of selection. The mechanism underlying this phenomenon is determined from consideration of a simpler model that correctly captures the observed dynamical behaviour. We note that very slow rates of changes of traits are seen in the fossil record and the present work may be relevant to this topic.     

On the Evolution of Redundancy in Genetic Codes

We simulate a deterministic population genetic model for the coevolution of genetic codes and protein-coding genes. We use very simple assumptions about translation, mutation, and protein fitness to calculate mutation-selection equilibria of codon frequencies and fitness in a large asexual population with a given genetic code. We then compute the fitnesses of altered genetic codes that compete to invade the population by translating its genes with higher fitness. Codes and genes coevolve in a succession of stages, alternating between genetic equilibration and code invasion, from an initial wholly ambiguous coding state to a diversified frozen coding state. Our simulations almost always resulted in partially redundant frozen genetic codes. Also, the range of simulated physicochemical properties among encoded amino acids in frozen codes was always less than maximal. These results did not require the assumption of historical constraints on the number and type of amino acids available to codes nor on the complexity of proteins, stereochemical constraints on the translational apparatus, nor mechanistic constraints on genetic code change. Both the extent and timing of amino-acid diversification in genetic codes were strongly affected by the message mutation rate and strength of missense selection. Our results suggest that various omnipresent phenomena that distribute codons over sites with different selective requirements—such as the persistence of nonsynonymous mutations at equilibrium, the positive selection of the same codon in different types of sites, and translational ambiguity—predispose the evolution of redundancy and of reduced amino acid diversity in genetic codes. Received: 21 December 2000 / Accepted: 12 March 2001     

Good genes and old age: Do old mates provide superior genes?

It has been suggested that female preference for older mates in species without parental care has evolved in response to an alleged higher genetic quality of older individuals. This is based on the widespread assumption that viability selection produces older individuals that are genetically superior to younger individuals. In contrast, we propose that the oldest individuals rarely are genetically superior. Quantitative genetic models of life history evolution indicate that young to intermediately aged individuals are likely to possess the highest breeding values of fitness. This conclusion is based on four arguments: 1) Viability selection on older individuals may decrease or at least not substantially increase breeding values of fitness, because there may exist negative genetic correlations between late-age and early-age life history parameters, 2) Fertility selection is likely to raise the fitness of gametes produced by young individuals more than those produced by old individuals, because the covariance between fertility and fitness often decreases with age, 3) The history of selection on their parents makes younger individuals more fit than older individuals, 4) Germ-line mutations, which are generally deleterious, significantly decrease the breeding value of fitness of an individual throughout its lifespan, especially in males. Therefore, females that mate with the oldest males in a population are doing so for reasons other than to obtain offspring of high genetic quality.     

Regions of Stable Equilibria for Models of Differential Selection in the Two Sexes under Random Mating

The equilibrium structure of models of differential selection in the sexes is investigated. It is shown that opposing additive selection leads to stable polymorphic equilibria for only a restricted set of selection intensities, and that for weak selection the selection intensities must be of approximately the same magnitude in the sexes. General models of opposing directional selection, with arbitrary dominance, are investigated by considering simultaneously the stability properties of the trivial equilibria and the curve along which multiple roots appear. Numerical calculations lead us to infer that the average degree of dominance determines the equilibrium characteristics of models of opposing selection. It appears that if the favored alleles are, on the average, recessive, there may be multiple polymorphic equilibria, whereas only a single polymorphic equilibrium can occur when the favored alleles are, on the average, dominant. The principle that the average degree of dominance controls equilibrium behavior is then extended to models allowing directional selection in one sex with overdominance in the other sex, by showing that polymorphism is maintained if and only if the average fitness in heterozygotes exceeds one.