DYNAMIC RESPONSE ANALYSIS. II.EVALUATION OF DYNAMIC RESPONSE ANALYSIS IN A SIMULATED NO-HARVEST CASE

A new method of stock assessment, dynamic response analysis, allows a qualitative assessment of stock status relative to its level of maximum net productivity to be carried out with minimal data. This paper evaluates the performance of dynamic response analysis on a simulated population under variable conditions with uncertain data. In the no-harvest case the data consist simply of a temporal sequence of relative population sizes. Dynamic response analysis is most sensitive to the number and precision of the population estimates and least sensitive to environmental variability and the intrinsic population growth rate. Significance levels must be chosen carefully, since some combinations of parameters and error levels result in an unacceptably low proportion of correct assessments. Dynamic response analysis can be a useful stock assessment technique for the management of marine mammals, but attention must be paid to the quantity and quality of the data.     

AN ANALYSIS OF PROCEDURES FOR IMPLEMENTING THE DYNAMIC RESPONSE METHOD

Abstract: A new method, the "dynamic response method," was developed (DeMaster et al. 1982) in an attempt to use time series data on relative population sizes to satisfy the requirements of the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 for maintaining an "optimum sustainable population" of marine mammals. Three methods of implementing this approach were studied, using a computer simulation of stochastic population growth with density-dependence operating on first-year survival in the form of a generalized-logistic function. Methods developed by Gerrodette (1988) and Boveng et al. (1988) appeared to be less sensitive than desirable when used with the simulated population data. The third method, developed in this study, offers better protection against "Type II error" (failing to identify populations in the optimum sustainable population range), particularly when combined with Gerrodette's (1988) approach.     

人口与社会-经济-自然复合生态系统的持续发展——伊春市人口的系统分析与调控对策

本文讨论了人口与社会-经济-自然复合生态系统持续发展的关系,指出了人口问题是决定复合生态系统持续发展的关键因素。只有人口与复合生态系统的各个方面相互适应,复合生态系统持续发展的目标才能得以实现。本文以伊春市为实例,系统地分析了伊春人口的发展过程,采用系统动力学的方法,建立了伊春人口的系统动力学模型,并以此模型对伊春人口进行了系统仿真和预测,同时提出了解决伊春人口问题的调控对策。     

POPULATION QUANTITATIVE CHARACTERISTICS AND DYNAMICS OF RARE AND ENDANGERED TSUGA TCHEKIANGENSIS IN JIULONGSHAN NATURE RESERVE OF CHINA

 针对九龙山国家级自然保护区南方铁杉(Tsuga tchekiangensis)种群的分布特点, 设置了10个具有代表性的样地。以种群生命表及生存分析理论为基础, 编制了南方铁杉种群的静态生命表, 绘制了存活曲线、死亡率曲线、消失率曲线、生存率曲线、累计死亡率曲线、种群死亡密度曲线和危险率曲线, 分析了种群数量特征; 同时结合谱分析方法, 分析了南方铁杉种群数量的动态变化。结果表明: 1) 南方铁杉种群结构存在波动性, 幼年阶段的个体较丰富, 成年个体数量相对较少, 种群趋于Deevey Ⅱ型。2) 南方铁杉种群死亡率和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致, 均出现两个高峰, 一个出现在第5龄级阶段, 另一个出现在第15龄级阶段。3) 南方铁杉种群的生存率单调下降, 累计死亡率单调上升, 生存率下降趋势前期高于后期, 累计死亡率则相反。4) 4个生存函数曲线表明, 南方铁杉具有前期稳定、中期锐减和后期衰退的特点。5) 种群动态的谱分析显示, 南方铁杉种群动态除受基波影响外, 还存在着明显的小周期波动, 谐波A3处周期的波动与南方铁杉的高生长有关; A6处周期的波动与外界环境变化有关; A8处周期的波动与南方铁杉进入生理衰退期有关。     

根茎型木本克隆植物准噶尔无叶豆的种群数量动态

 根据根茎型木本克隆植物的特征, 不以种群的分株数量代表种群大小, 而尝试以不同茎级的根茎长度代表种群大小, 运用种群静态生命表、存活曲线、生殖力表和Leslie矩阵模型, 研究了准噶尔无叶豆(Eremosparton songoricum)的两个种群——A种群(46°31.09′ N, 88°33.06′ E, 紧邻乌伦古湖)和B种群(46°28.07′ N, 88°33.07′ E, 位于沙漠腹地)的种群数量动态。结果表明: 种群存活表现为Deevey-I型。A种群在中龄阶段受到的人为干扰较大, 死亡率出现高峰, 种群的净增长率(R₀)、内禀增长率(r_m)和周限增长率(λ)较低, 表现为衰退型种群, Leslie矩阵模型的模拟结果表明, 15 a内种群呈现下降趋势; B种群所受到的压力主要是干旱贫瘠的荒漠环境所导致的系统压力, 种群的R₀、r_m和λ值适中, 表现为缓慢增长型种群, Leslie矩阵模型的模拟结果表明, 15 a内种群呈现先下降、再上升的趋势。此外, 研究结果验证了Leslie矩阵模型可以扩展应用到根茎型木本克隆植物这类特殊生活型植物的种群数量动态研究上。     

DETERMINATION OF MANATEE POPULATION TRENDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA USING A BAYESIAN APPROACH WITH TEMPERATURE-ADJUSTED AERIAL SURVEY DATA

In many animal population survey studies, the construction of a stochastic model provides an effective way to capture underlying biological characteristics that contribute to the overall variation in the data. In this paper we develop a stochastic model to assess the population trend and abundance of the Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris , along the Atlantic coast of the state, using aerial survey data collected at winter aggregation sites between 1982 and 2001. This model accounts for the method by which the manatees were counted, their movements between surveys, and the behavior of the total population over time. The data suggest an overall increase in the population from 1982 to 1989 of around 5%–7%, a reduction in growth or a leveling off (0%–4% annual growth) from 1990 to 1993, and then an increase again of around 3%–6% since 1994. In winter 2001–2002 (the most recent survey season for which analyses were done), we estimated the adult manatee population along the east coast of Florida to be 1,607 individuals (range = 1,353–1,972; 95% credible interval). Our estimate of manatee abundance corresponds well with maximum counts (approximately 1,600 manatees) produced during synoptic aerial surveys under optimal conditions. Our calculations of trends correspond well with mark and recapture analyses of trends in survival of adult manatees along the east coast through the early 1990s. Our population trend estimates since that time are more optimistic than those generated by mark-recapture models.     

MAXIMUM NET PRODUCTIVITY LEVEL ESTIMATION FOR THE NORTHERN FUR SEAL (CALLORHINUS URSINUS) POPULATION OF ST. PAUL ISLAND, ALASKA

The goal of this study was to assess the maximum net productivity level for the northern fur seal ( Callorhinus ursinus ) population of St. Paul Island, Alaska. Definitive determination of this level is not possible due to uncertainty in life table parameters and density-dependent changes in those parameters. To account for such uncertainty, repetitive numerical simulations were used to generate frequency distributions of estimates for the maximum net productivity level and related population parameters. This approach systematically varied simulation input parameters, ran a separate simulation with each input parameter combination, and validated the simulations on the basis of comparison with historical observations. Results from validated simulations were compiled in frequency distributions to provide a measure of confidence for MNPL estimates. The distributions confirm that this population is probably well below its maximum net productivity level. Because they reflect the uncertainty in our understanding of northern fur seal population dynamics, these distributions are a more realistic basis for management than single point estimates.     

DYNAMIC RESPONSE ANALYSIS. I. QUALITATIVE ESTIMATION OF STOCKSTATUS RELATIVE TO MAXIMUM NETPRODUCTIVITY LEVEL FROMOBSERVED DYNAMICS

A qualitative determination of whether a population is above or below its MNPL can be carried out under circumstances where the value of the MNPL itself, and other details of the production curve, cannot be estimated. This qualitative assessment may often be sufficient for management decisions. The method proceeds by locally approximating the production curve, in the neighborhood of the present population density, from data on population sizes and harvests, and then determining whether this represents the ascending or descending arm of the curve. When the harvests are small, or when the harvests are a constant fraction of the production, the population-size data need only be relative. With adequate quantities of data, this assessment method can accommodate random measurement error and random perturbations in the dynamics of the population system.