Mapping QTLs for Plant Phenology and Production Traits Using Indica Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Lines Adapted to Rainfed Environment

Drought is a major abiotic stress limiting rice production and yield stability in rainfed ecosystems. Identifying quantitative trait loci (QTL) for rice yield and yield components under water limited environments will help to develop drought resilient cultivars using marker assisted breeding (MAB) strategy. A total of 232 recombinant inbred lines of IR62266/Norungan were used to map QTLs for plant phenology and production traits under rainfed condition in target population of environments. A total of 79 QTLs for plant phenology and production traits with phenotypic variation ranging from 4.4 to 72.8% were detected under non-stress and drought stress conditions across two locations. Consistent QTLs for phenology and production traits were detected across experiments and water regimes. The QTL region, RM204-RM197-RM217 on chromosome 6 was linked to days to 50% flowering and grain yield per plant under both rainfed and irrigated conditions. The same genomic region, RM585-RM204-RM197 was also linked to harvest index under rainfed condition with positive alleles from Norungan, a local landrace. QTLs for plant production and drought resistance traits co-located near RM585-RM204-RM197-RM217 region on chromosome 6 in several rice genotypes. Thus with further fine mapping, this region may be useful as a candidate QTL for MAB, map-based cloning of genes and functional genomics studies for rainfed rice improvement.     

Critical Yield Factors for Achieving High Grain Yield in Early-Season Rice Grown under Mechanical Transplanting Conditions

Double-season rice cropping systems occupy a large portion of the rice production area in southern China. Because the problem of insufficient labor, mechanical transplanting (in contrast to the manual transplanting) was become more attractive in double-season rice system. However, the decisive yield factors which resulting in high grain yield of early-season rice are unclear under mechanical-transplanted conditions. In present study, the field experiments were conducted in the early season in 2017 and repeated in 2018 in Santang Town, Hunan Province, China. Ten early season rice cultivars (Zhuliangyou 819, Lingliangyou 268, Lingliangyou 104, Luliangyou 996, Xiangzaoxian 24, Xiangzaoxian 32, Xiangzaoxian 45, Xiangzaoxian 42, Zhongjiazao 17, and Zhongzao 39) were used as materials in this study. The difference in grain yield and closelyrelated agronomic and physiological traits of ten tested cultivars were compared. The range of yields (t ha^–1 at 86% dry matter) in 2017 was 6.2 to 8.7 (mean 7.8) and in 2018 was 6.5 to 8.4 (mean 7.8). Grain weight and pre-heading biomass accumulation had potent significant positive correlations with the grain yield. The greater pre-heading biomass accumulation was major attributed to higher apparent radiation use efficiency. Our results suggested that early-season rice cultivars to achieve the high grain yield in mechanical-transplanted conditions depends on apparent radiation use efficiency in the pre-heading period and higher grain weight.     

Root Morphology Was Improved in a Late-Stage Vigor Super Rice Cultivar

This study aimed to test the hypothesis that root morphology might be improved and consequently contributing to superior post-heading shoot growth and grain yield in late-stage vigor super rice. A pot experiment was carried out to compare yield attributes, shoot growth and physiological properties and root morphological traits between a late-stage vigor super rice cultivar (Y-liangyou 087) and an elite rice cultivar (Teyou 838). Grain yield and total shoot biomass were 7–9% higher in Y-liangyou 087 than in Teyou 838. Y-liangyou 087 had 60–64% higher post-heading shoot growth rate and biomass production than Teyou 838. Average relative chlorophyll concentration and net photosynthetic rate in flag leaves were 7–11% higher in Y-liangyou 087 than in Teyou 838 during heading to 25 days after heading. Y-liangyou 087 had 41% higher post-heading shoot N uptake but 17–25% lower root biomass and root-shoot ratio at heading and maturity than Teyou 838. Specific root length and length and surface area of fine roots were higher in Y-liangyou 087 than in Teyou 838 at heading and maturity by more than 15%. These results indicated that root-shoot relationships were well balanced during post-heading phase in the late-stage vigor super rice cultivar Y-liangyou 087 by improving root morphology including avoiding a too great root biomass and developing a large fine root system.     

气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应Ⅵ.防旱避灾种植模式优化布局

南方地区是我国重要的农业种植区,季节性干旱严重影响该地区的农业生产.本文基于南方地区不同干旱分区中选取的13个典型地区1981-2007年气象资料和作物生育期、产量等资料,依据各地逐年降水量将其分为干旱年、正常年和丰水年3种不同降水年型,利用作物水分临界期需水量与降水量的耦合度、气象产量、单位面积产值以及全生育期的水分利用效率和降水量5个指标,对典型地区种植模式的综合效益进行评价,得到南方不同区域不同降水年型下的优化种植模式.结果表明: 半干旱区在干旱年型下,宜采取2种抗旱种植模式：马铃-玉米-甘薯和冬小麦-中稻-甘薯.半湿润区在干旱年型下,种植模式以冬小麦-中稻-甘薯最优,油菜-中稻-甘薯次之.在温润区(即典型的季节性干旱区),江南地区在3种年型下均以马铃薯-双季稻最优;西南地区宜搭配抗旱作物进行三熟制种植,如冬小麦-中稻-甘薯、冬小麦-玉米-甘薯、马铃薯-双季稻等.从最大程度利用水热资源角度考虑,三熟种植模式最优,以水旱轮作为主,丰水年型宜搭配水稻.     

气候平均值变化对辽宁水稻延迟型冷害评估结果的影响

5-9月平均气温和的距平值(ΔT_5-9)是评估东北地区水稻延迟型冷害的常用指标,但5-9月平均气温和的气候平均值(∑T_5-9)统计年代的变化,是否会影响辽宁水稻延迟型冷害评估结果,还有待进一步研究.本文利用中华人民共和国气象行业标准《水稻冷害评估技术规范》(QX/T 182-2013)和补充后的（ΔT_5-9）,通过计算辽宁52个气象站1961-1990(S₁)、1971-2000(S₂)、1981-2010(S₃)和1961-2010年(S₄)4个气候年代的∑T_5-9,分别利用冷害发生站数与评估总站数的比值(IOC)和发生频率对辽宁水稻低温冷害时空变化进行分析.结果表明: 1961-2010年,辽宁各地水稻生长季的热量条件(即∑T_5-9)明显增加并发生了显著的时空变化;利用二次多项式模型对原有的水稻延迟型冷害评估气象指标进行补充完善.S2和S4的气候平均值对研究区水稻延迟型冷害时空规律的判识结果较为相似,但并不完全相同,基于S3气候平均值计算的IOC变异系数均低于其他3个气候平均值计算的IOC变异系数.与水稻典型减产年相比,利用S3气候平均值评估研究期间辽宁水稻延迟型冷害的结果更符合实际情况,可为准确评估气候变化背景下辽宁水稻延迟型冷害时空变化规律提供依据.     

世界野生大豆的生态型及其地理分布的研究

1981—1986年,作了来源于世界不同纬度(24—53˚N)、不同经度(97—143˚E)、不同海拔(0—2650m)的野生大豆的光温生态分析。根据世界各地343份材料(中国292份、日本32份、南朝鲜14份、苏联5份)的分析资料,将世界野生大豆分为七个光温生态型及相应的七个生态地理区。     

福建省白背飞虱前期迁入虫源分析

近年来, 福建省白背飞虱Sogatella furcifera (Horváth)危害严重, 尤其2007年, 全省早稻白背飞虱特大发生, 迁入峰不但比常年偏早, 且虫量异常偏多。本文利用由美国国家大气与海洋局与澳大利亚国家气象局共同开发研制的大气质点轨迹分析平台模型HYSPLIT, 和气象图形分析显示软件GrADS对2007-2010年4-5月福建省白背飞虱早期主要迁入峰次进行了轨迹模拟, 并对2007年5月份的主要迁入过程进行了天气学背景分析。结果显示： (1) 福建省白背飞虱早期迁入虫源主要来自广东、海南省, 台湾省、 菲律宾仅在个别年份提供少量虫源, 非主要虫源地; (2) 低空急流与持续降水的配合是导致2007年白背飞虱集中降落的直接原因。2007年5月稻飞虱迁入同期, 福建850 hPa上空低空急流频繁, 5月份西太平洋副高比往年偏西、 偏强, 且北跳推迟, 使得华南地面准静止锋形成, 雨季延长; （3）2007年广东、 海南3月底至4月初的1代成虫迁入种群较多造成的田间2代白背飞虱虫源基数的增加是造成2007年福建白背飞虱迁入量增加的最根本原因。福建白背飞虱的主迁入虫量取决于两广早期田间虫源基数的多寡, 在副高偏强、 雨水较多年份, 提前对两广、 海南地区田间稻飞虱发生情况进行了解将有助于福建稻飞虱的预防与治理。     

气候变暖背景下南方早稻春季低温灾害的发生趋势与风险

基于《早稻播种育秧期低温阴雨等级》行业标准,利用南方双季早稻种植区178个站点1961—2010年的逐日气温资料,对各站点早稻春季低温灾害发生次数进行突变性分析,根据突变检验结果将研究时段划分为1961—1990年和1991—2010年两个时段,对比分析两个时段内早稻春季低温灾害发生趋势和发生风险的地理分布变化特征。结果表明,与前30a相比,近20a研究区早稻春季低温灾害的发生总体上呈现为由增加趋势转变为减少趋势的特征,低温灾害风险指数高值区以及各等级低温灾害发生概率高值区的范围和大小均有所减小,其中以轻度低温灾害的发生概率最高且概率减小范围最大。可为南方早稻春季低温灾害的动态评估和早稻种植的合理布局提供依据。     

Closing the global ozone yield gap: Quantification and cobenefits for multistress tolerance

Increasing both crop productivity and the tolerance of crops to abiotic and biotic stresses is a major challenge for global food security in our rapidly changing climate. For the first time, we show how the spatial variation and severity of tropospheric ozone effects on yield compare with effects of other stresses on a global scale, and discuss mitigating actions against the negative effects of ozone. We show that the sensitivity to ozone declines in the order soybean > wheat > maize > rice, with genotypic variation in response being most pronounced for soybean and rice. Based on stomatal uptake, we estimate that ozone (mean of 2010–2012) reduces global yield annually by 12.4%, 7.1%, 4.4% and 6.1% for soybean, wheat, rice and maize, respectively (the “ozone yield gaps”), adding up to 227 Tg of lost yield. Our modelling shows that the highest ozone‐induced production losses for soybean are in North and South America whilst for wheat they are in India and China, for rice in parts of India, Bangladesh, China and Indonesia, and for maize in China and the United States. Crucially, we also show that the same areas are often also at risk of high losses from pests and diseases, heat stress and to a lesser extent aridity and nutrient stress. In a solution‐focussed analysis of these results, we provide a crop ideotype with tolerance of multiple stresses (including ozone) and describe how ozone effects could be included in crop breeding programmes. We also discuss altered crop management approaches that could be applied to reduce ozone impacts in the shorter term. Given the severity of ozone effects on staple food crops in areas of the world that are also challenged by other stresses, we recommend increased attention to the benefits that could be gained from addressing the ozone yield gap.     

抽穗扬花期不同灌水处理对晚稻抵御低温、产量和生理特性的影响

以超级杂交晚稻品种‘五丰优T025’为材料,设置日排夜灌,灌溉水深4～5 cm(H₁);日排夜灌,灌溉水深8～10 cm(H₂);深水灌溉,保持水深8～10 cm(H₃)等3个处理,以稻田湿润处理水层0～1 cm为对照,研究了抽穗扬花期遭遇低温条件下不同灌水方式和水层深度对双季晚稻生理特性及产量的影响.结果表明: 低温期间,不同灌水处理叶片、土层和冠层温度较对照均有所提高,其中H₂处理增温效果最好.低温胁迫下各处理稻株叶片叶绿素含量、净光合速率、蒸腾速率、叶片气孔导度和胞间CO₂浓度均逐渐降低,其中H₂处理降低幅度最小;H₂处理叶片丙二醛、游离脯氨酸含量上升幅度最小,可溶性蛋白含量高于其余处理,超氧化物歧化酶和过氧化物酶增幅最小,过氧化氢酶下降幅度最小.灌水保温均可达到增产效果,以H₂处理效果最佳,遭遇低温的2014年和2015年第二播期H₂处理分别比对照增产12.9%和13.5%;从产量结构上看,各处理较对照在单株有效穗数、穗长、结实率、千粒重上均有一定的改善,日排夜灌8～10 cm水深处理是增强双季杂交晚稻抽穗扬花期低温抵御能力较为实用的农艺措施.     

节水轻简栽培模式下增密减氮对双季稻田温室气体排放的影响

为了明确节水轻简栽培模式下增密减氮对双季稻田温室气体排放的影响,以陆两优996(早稻)和丰源优299(晚稻)为材料,使用密闭静态箱法收集温室气体,监测早晚稻不同增密减氮组合CH₄和N₂O的排放动态,探讨不同增密减氮措施对早晚稻田CH₄和N₂O的累积排放量、全球增温潜势(GWP)、排放强度(GHGI)的影响。结果表明: 不同增密减氮组合间的CH₄、N₂O累积排放量差异显著。与对照(CK)相比,增密减氮组合IR₂(早稻施氮量为86.4 kg·hm^-2,密度为36万穴·hm^-2;晚稻施氮量为108 kg·hm^-2,密度为32万穴·hm^-2)的CH₄累积排放量、GWP、GHGI两季平均分别降低了50.8%、37.3%、42.9%;早稻IR₂的N₂O累积排放量最低,降低了33.7%,晚稻以IR₁(早稻施氮量为103.2 kg·hm^-2,密度为32万穴·hm^-2;晚稻施氮量为129 kg·hm^-2,密度为28万穴·hm^-2)的N₂O累积排放量最低,降低了94.9%;稻田周年温室效应(总GWP、GHGI)仍以IR₂最低。与其他增密减氮处理相比,早晚氮肥均减少28.0%、早稻密度增加28.6%、晚稻密度增加33.3%(IR₂)既可保证高产,又可减少温室气体排放。     

Climatic and technological ceilings for Chinese rice stagnation based on yield gaps and yield trend pattern analysis

Climatic or technological ceilings could cause yield stagnation. Thus, identifying the principal reasons for yield stagnation within the context of the local climate and socio‐economic conditions are essential for informing regional agricultural policies. In this study, we identified the climatic and technological ceilings for seven rice‐production regions in China based on yield gaps and on a yield trend pattern analysis for the period 1980–2010. The results indicate that 54.9% of the counties sampled experienced yield stagnation since the 1980. The potential yield ceilings in northern and eastern China decreased to a greater extent than in other regions due to the accompanying climate effects of increases in temperature and decreases in radiation. This may be associated with yield stagnation and halt occurring in approximately 49.8–57.0% of the sampled counties in these areas. South‐western China exhibited a promising scope for yield improvement, showing the greatest yield gap (30.6%), whereas the yields were stagnant in 58.4% of the sampled counties. This finding suggests that efforts to overcome the technological ceiling must be given priority so that the available exploitable yield gap can be achieved. North‐eastern China, however, represents a noteworthy exception. In the north‐central area of this region, climate change has increased the yield potential ceiling, and this increase has been accompanied by the most rapid increase in actual yield: 1.02 ton ha^?1 per decade. Therefore, north‐eastern China shows a great potential for rice production, which is favoured by the current climate conditions and available technology level. Additional environmentally friendly economic incentives might be considered in this region.     

基于MODIS-EVI数据和Symlet11小波识别东北地区水稻主要物候期

作物物候信号能够反映温度和降水等变化对植被生长的影响,是进行农作物动态分析和田间管理的重要依据。基于2008年EOS-MODIS多时相卫星遥感数据,研究了我国东北地区水稻的主要物候期的识别方法。首先提取研究区24个农业气象观测站所在位置的MODIS-EVI(Enhanced Vegetation Index,增强型植被指数)指数的时间序列;同时利用小波滤波消除时间序列上的噪音,小波滤波选用函数包含Daubechies(7-20),Coiflet(3-5)和Symlet(7-15)共26种类型。然后根据水稻移栽期、抽穗期和成熟期在EVI时间序列上的表现特征来识别水稻主要物候期。最后与东北地区24个站点水稻物候观测资料对比并分析误差。结果表明,Symlet11小波滤波的效果最好,其移栽期识别结果的误差绝大部分在±16 d,抽穗期和成熟期识别结果的误差在±8 d。表明通过此方法可以较好地识别东北水稻主要物候期,并可进一步应用到整个东北地区水稻的物候空间分布和时间变化特征研究上。     

幼穗分化期喷施磷钾肥对早稻抵御低温及产量和生理特性的影响

以超级杂交早稻品种淦鑫203为材料,以叶面喷清水为对照(CK),设置0.1%(P1)、0.3%(P3)和0.5%(P5)3个浓度的磷酸二氢钾以及撒施草木灰(MH)处理,研究了双季早稻幼穗分化期遭遇低温条件下喷施磷钾肥对水稻叶温、产量和生理特性的影响.结果表明: 低温期间6:00—18:00所有时间段,喷施磷酸二氢钾和草木灰的稻株叶片温度均高于CK;低温胁迫下各处理稻株叶片叶绿素含量和净光合速率均逐渐降低,以P3处理降低幅度最小;各处理抗氧化酶活性产生不同程度的变化,P3处理的超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化物酶(POD)活性上升幅度均高于其余处理,而过氧化氢酶(CAT)活性降低幅度低于其余处理;低温处理结束后,以CK处理的丙二醛(MDA)含量最高;低温胁迫下喷施磷酸二氢钾和草木灰处理均能不同程度提高植株干物质积累,达到减缓产量降低的效果,其中以P3处理最佳;从产量结构上看,各处理较CK每穗总粒数、结实率、千粒重均有明显改善.叶面喷施0.3%磷酸二氢钾是增强双季超级杂交早稻幼穗分化期低温抵御能力的较为实用的农艺措施.     

古尔班通古特沙漠原生梭梭树干液流及耗水量

梭梭广泛分布于我国西部干旱区,利用热脉冲技术对古尔班通古特沙漠生长期原生梭梭的树干液流耗水特征进行了研究。随着水分条件的不同,影响树干液流过程的主导因素有所不同。根区土壤体积含水量在8.7%-12.1%时,梭梭日树干液流量与土壤水分显著相关;土壤含水量＞12.1%时,液流更多的受到气象因素的影响;土壤含水量＜8.7%,树干液流与气象要素之间没有相关性,液流更多的受植物生理特征影响。在土壤水分最丰富的4月份,随着土壤水分的降低,白天与夜间的液流变化趋同;4月份日平均液流量约是5-9月份的2倍。梭梭的液流通量从古尔班通古特沙漠原生林的0.156L?cm-2?d-1到塔中人工滴灌林的0.876 L?cm-2?d-1,均处于正常生长状态,表明梭梭生态需水的可塑性范围较广。基径为7.8cm和9.0cm的梭梭在4月至9月份生长期的实际耗水量分别是95mm和117mm。     

Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts,but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981–2009 in China,and late rice was just opposite

Based on the crop trial data during 1981–2009 at 57 agricultural experimental stations across the North Eastern China Plain (NECP) and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR), we investigated how major climate variables had changed and how the climate change had affected crop growth and yield in a setting in which agronomic management practices were taken based on actual weather. We found a significant warming trend during rice growing season, and a general decreasing trend in solar radiation (SRD) in the MLRYR during 1981–2009. Rice transplanting, heading, and maturity dates were generally advanced, but the heading and maturity dates of single rice in the MLRYR (YZ_SR) and NECP (NE_SR) were delayed. Climate warming had a negative impact on growth period lengths at about 80% of the investigated stations. Nevertheless, the actual growth period lengths of YZ_SR and NE_SR, as well as the actual length of reproductive growth period (RGP) of early rice in the MLRYR (YZ_ER), were generally prolonged due to adoption of cultivars with longer growth period to obtain higher yield. In contrast, the actual growth period length of late rice in the MLRYR (YZ_LR) was shortened by both climate warming and adoption of early mature cultivars to prevent cold damage and obtain higher yield. During 1981–2009, climate warming and decrease in SRD changed the yield of YZ_ER by ?0.59 to 2.4%; climate warming during RGP increased the yield of YZ_LR by 8.38–9.56%; climate warming and decrease in SRD jointly reduced yield of YZ_SR by 7.14–9.68%; climate warming and increase in SRD jointly increased the yield of NE_SR by 1.01–3.29%. Our study suggests that rice production in China has been affected by climate change, yet at the same time changes in varieties continue to be the major factor driving yield and growing period trends.     

Post‐heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China

Wheat is sensitive to high temperatures, but the spatial and temporal variability of high temperature and its impact on yield are often not known. An analysis of historical climate and yield data was undertaken to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of heat stress between heading and maturity and its impact on wheat grain yield in China. Several heat stress indices were developed to quantify heat intensity, frequency, and duration between heading and maturity based on measured maximum temperature records of the last 50 years from 166 stations in the main wheat‐growing region of China. Surprisingly, heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the generally cooler northern wheat‐growing regions than the generally warmer southern regions of China, because of the delayed time of heading with low temperatures during the earlier growing season and the exposure of the post‐heading phase into the warmer part of the year. Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in the last decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China, but the rate was higher in the south than in the north. The correlation between measured grain yields and post‐heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat‐producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability. A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variability. Because heat stress is a major cause of yield loss and the number of heat events is projected to increase in the future, quantifying the future impact of heat stress on wheat production and developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are critical for developing food security policies in China and elsewhere.     

站点CERES-Rice模型区域应用效果和误差来源

作物区域模拟是利用有限的空间数据,最大限度地反映出生育期、产量等作物性状的时空变化规律.由于目前的作物模型大多是田间尺度的站点模型,把它运用到区域水平的效果如何研究甚少.文章利用CERES-Rice模型,对作物模型在我国的区域应用效果进行了分析.首先利用田间观测数据在各实验点上对模型进行了详细的站点校准,以验证模型在我国的模拟能力;然后以我国水稻生态区(精确到亚区)为单位,运用均方根差(RMSE)法进行了区域校准和验证;最后利用区域校准后的CERES-Rice模型,模拟了1980～2000年的网格(50km×50km)水稻产量,并与同期农调队调查产量进行统计比较,以验证区域应用的效果,为区域模拟的推广和应用提供参考.结果表明:经过空间校准后的CERES-Rice模型,在水稻的主产区1～4区(占种植面积的95%)模拟的平均产量与调查产量相对均方根差在22%以内,两者的符合度也较好,个别区域(5、6) RMSE%在24%～30%之间;1980～2000年水稻各产区模拟的平均产量与调查产量随时间变化趋势也具有一定的一致性;全国1896个网格中,大部分网格(71.01%)模拟的21年水稻年产量与调查产量的RMSE%在30%之内,且大部分分布在水稻主产区,考虑到水稻种植面积的权重后,认为利用区域校准和验证后的CERES-Rice模型进行水稻区域模拟,可以反映出产量的时空分布特征,能够为宏观决策提供相应的信息.但目前区域模拟中还存在着一定的误差,有待今后进一步研究.     

“双季稻-鸭”共生生态系统稻作季节氮循环

“稻鸭共生”是对我国传统农业稻田养鸭的继承与发展.2010年5-10月在长江流域双季稻主产区湖南布置了稻田养鸭田间试验,以常规稻作为对照,研究了早、晚稻两季“稻鸭共生”生态系统氮(N)循环特征.结果表明:“早稻-鸭”共生系统N输出是239.5 kg· hm-2,其中鸭产品N是12.77 kg·hm-2.“晚稻-鸭”共生系统N输出是338.7 kg· hm-2,其中鸭产品N是23.35 kg· hm-2.在早、晚稻两季,“稻鸭共生”系统在目前的N养分投入水平下,土壤均存在N亏缺;鸭子系统N输入主要来自系统外投入的饲料N;鸭粪N作为系统内被循环利用的养分,早、晚稻两季循环率分别为2.5％和3.5％.两季稻作后,土壤截存的N量是178.6 kg·hm-2.     

Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China

Northeast China (NEC) is not only one of the major agricultural production areas in China, but it is also the most susceptible to climate variability. This led us to investigate the impact of climate change on maize potential yield and yield gaps in this region, where maize accounts for about 30% of the nation's production. The APSIM‐Maize model was calibrated and validated for maize phenology and yields. The validated model was then used to estimate potential yields, rain‐fed potential yields, and yield gaps for assessing the climate impacts on maize productivity in NEC. During maize growing seasons from 1981 to 2010, the analysis indicates a warming trend all across NEC, whereas the trends in solar radiation and total precipitation tended to decrease. When the same hybrid was specified in APSIM for all years, a simulated increase of maximum temperature resulted in a negative impact on both potential yield and rain‐fed potential yield. A simulated increase in minimum temperature produced no significant changes in potential or rain‐fed potential yield. However, the increase of minimum temperature was shown to result in a positive impact on the on‐farm yield, consistent with our finding that farmers adopted longer season hybrids for which the increase in minimum temperature provided better conditions for germination, emergence, and grain filling during night time. The gap between potential and rain‐fed potential yields was shown to be larger at locations with lower seasonal precipitation (<500 mm). Our results indicate that regions with the largest yield gaps between rain‐fed potential and on‐farm yields were located in the southeast of NEC. Within NEC, on‐farm maize yields were, on average, only 51% of the potential yields, indicating a large exploitable yield gap, which provides an opportunity to significantly increase production by effective irrigation, fertilization, herbicide, and planting density in NEC.