Assessing the Potential Threat Landscape of a Proposed Reintroduction Site for Carnivores

This study provides a framework to assess the feasibility of reintroducing carnivores into an area, using African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) as an example. The Great Fish River Nature Reserve in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, has been identified as a potential reserve to reintroduce wild dogs, and we applied this framework to provide a threat assessment of the surrounding area to determine potential levels of human-wildlife conflict. Although 56% of neighbouring landowners and local communities were positive about a wild dog reintroduction, data collected from questionnaire surveys revealed that human-wild dog conflict is a potential threat to wild dog survival in the area. Additional potential threats include diseases, snaring, poaching and hunting wild dogs for the use of traditional medicine. A threat index was developed to establish which properties harboured the greatest threats to wild dogs. This index was significantly influenced by the respondent’s first language (isiXhosa had more positive indices), education level (poorer education was synonymous with more positive threat indices), land use (wildlife ranching being the most negative) and land tenure (community respondents had more positive indices than private landowners). Although threats are present, they can be effectively mitigated through strategies such as carnivore education programs, vaccination campaigns and anti-snare patrols to promote a successful reintroduction of this endangered canid.     

Inbreeding avoidance influences the viability of reintroduced populations of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus)

The conservation of many fragmented and small populations of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) relies on understanding the natural processes affecting genetic diversity, demographics, and future viability. We used extensive behavioural, life-history, and genetic data from reintroduced African wild dogs in South Africa to (1) test for inbreeding avoidance via mate selection and (2) model the potential consequences of avoidance on population persistence. Results suggested that wild dogs avoided mating with kin. Inbreeding was rare in natal packs, after reproductive vacancies, and between sibling cohorts (observed on 0.8%, 12.5%, and 3.8% of occasions, respectively). Only one of the six (16.7%) breeding pairs confirmed as third-order (or closer) kin consisted of animals that were familiar with each other, while no other paired individuals had any prior association. Computer-simulated populations allowed to experience inbreeding had only a 1.6% probability of extinction within 100 years, whereas all populations avoiding incestuous matings became extinct due to the absence of unrelated mates. Populations that avoided mating with first-order relatives became extinct after 63 years compared with persistence of 37 and 19 years for those also prevented from second-order and third-order matings, respectively. Although stronger inbreeding avoidance maintains significantly more genetic variation, our results demonstrate the potentially severe demographic impacts of reduced numbers of suitable mates on the future viability of small, isolated wild dog populations. The rapid rate of population decline suggests that extinction may occur before inbreeding depression is observed.     

Conflicting human interests over the re-introduction of endangered wild dogs in South Africa

In South Africa, a plan was launched to manage separate sub-populations of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in several small, geographically isolated, conservation areas as a single meta-population. This intensive management approach involves the re-introduction of wild dogs into suitable conservation areas and periodic translocations among them. To assess the attitudes towards re-introduced wild dogs, we conducted a questionnaire survey of multiple stakeholders—local community members, private landowners and tourists—in and around Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), one of the meta-population conservation areas. Here, we document conflicting human interests over the re-introduced wild dogs. Tourists in HiP, on the one hand, expressed overwhelmingly positive opinions about wild dogs across personal details of the respondents, but especially after having seen free-ranging wild dogs. On the other hand, we found misconceptions and perceptions that were more negative among the rural population around HiP, again largely independent of personal details of the participants, although educated respondents voiced more favourable views of wild dogs. These negative attitudes were in particular due to perceived and real threats of livestock losses. In a follow-up questionnaire survey, we also discovered apparent shortcomings of a previous short-lived conservation education programme among the local communities adjacent to HiP. Consequently, the mitigation of the conflict between wild dogs and rural people requires an understanding of the conditions under which livestock predation occurs, the encouragement of practices that prevent such predation, and increasing local tolerance of co-existence with wild dogs through both economic and non-monetary incentive schemes as well as continued conservation education.     

Evaluating the Status of and African Wild Dogs Lycaon pictus and Cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus through Tourist-based Photographic Surveys in the Kruger National Park

The Kruger National Park is a stronghold for African wild dog Lycaon pictus and cheetah Acinonyx jubatus conservation in South Africa. Tourist photographic surveys have been used to evaluate the minimum number of wild dogs and cheetahs alive over the last two decades. Photographic-based capture-recapture techniques for open populations were used on data collected during a survey done in 2008/9. Models were run for the park as a whole and per region (northern, central, southern). A total of 412 (329–495; SE 41.95) cheetahs and 151 (144–157; SE 3.21) wild dogs occur in the Kruger National Park. Cheetah capture probabilities were affected by time (number of entries) and sex, whereas wild dog capture probabilities were affected by the region of the park. When plotting the number of new individuals identified against the number of entries received, the addition of new wild dogs to the survey reached an asymptote at 210 entries, but cheetahs did not reach an asymptote. The cheetah population of Kruger appears to be acceptable, while the wild dog population size and density are of concern. The effectiveness of tourist-based surveys for estimating population sizes through capture-recapture analyses is shown.     

Dynamics of a small re-introduced population of wild dogs over 25 years: Allee effects and the implications of sociality for endangered species’ recovery

We analysed 25 years (1980–2004) of demographic data on a small re-introduced population of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), South Africa, to describe population and pack dynamics. As small populations of cooperative breeders may be particularly prone to Allee effects, this extensive data set was used to test the prediction that, if Allee effects occur, aspects of reproductive success, individual survival and population growth should increase with pack and population size. The results suggest that behavioural aspects of wild dogs rather than ecological factors (i.e. competitors, prey and rainfall) primarily have been limiting the HiP wild dog population, particularly a low probability of finding suitable mates upon dispersal at low pack number (i.e. a mate-finding Allee effect). Wild dogs in HiP were not subject to component Allee effects at the pack level, most likely due to low interspecific competition and high prey availability. This suggests that aspects of the environment can mediate the strength of Allee effects. There was also no demographic Allee effect in the HiP wild dog population, as the population growth rate was significantly negatively related to population size, despite no apparent ecological resource limitation. Such negative density dependence at low numbers indicates that behavioural studies of the causal mechanisms potentially generating Allee effects in small populations can provide a key to understanding their dynamics. This study demonstrates how aspects of a species’ social behaviour can influence the vulnerability of small populations to extinction and illustrates the profound implications of sociality for endangered species’ recovery. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Inbreeding, heterozygosity and fitness in a reintroduced population of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus)

It is crucial to understand the genetic health and implications of inbreeding in wildlife populations, especially of vulnerable species. Using extensive demographic and genetic data, we investigated the relationships among pedigree inbreeding coefficients, metrics of molecular heterozygosity and fitness for a large population of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in South Africa. Molecular metrics based on 19 microsatellite loci were significantly, but modestly correlated to inbreeding coefficients in this population. Inbred wild dogs with inbreeding coefficients of ??0.25 and subordinate individuals had shorter lifespans than outbred and dominant contemporaries, suggesting some deleterious effects of inbreeding. However, this trend was confounded by pack-specific effects as many inbred individuals originated from a single large pack. Despite wild dogs being endangered and existing in small populations, findings within our sample population indicated that molecular metrics were not robust predictors in models of fitness based on breeding pack formation, dominance, reproductive success or lifespan of individuals. Nonetheless, our approach has generated a vital database for future comparative studies to examine these relationships over longer periods of time. Such detailed assessments are essential given knowledge that wild canids can be highly vulnerable to inbreeding effects over a few short generations.     

No evidence of handling‐induced mortality in Serengeti's African wild dog population

The disappearance of an endangered African wild dog population from Serengeti National Park (SNP) led to international debate centered around one question: were researchers to blame? The “Burrows' hypothesis” postulated that stress induced by research‐related immobilization and handling reactivated a latent rabies virus, eliminating the population. Insufficient data inhibited hypothesis testing, but since wild dogs persisted alongside SNP and have been studied since 2005, the hypothesis can be tested 25 years after its proposition. To be supported, wild dog immobilization interventions should have resulted in high mortality rates. However, 87.6% of 121 handled wild dogs (2006–2016) survived >12 months post‐handling. Some argued that viral reactivation would necessitate long‐term stress. Following immobilization, 67 animals were captured, transported, and held in a translocation enclosure. Despite the longer‐term stress, 95.5% survived >12 months. Furthermore, the stable number of wild dog packs in the ecosystem over the past decade, and lack of recolonization of SNP, strongly oppose Burrows' hypothesis. Instead, factors such as heightened levels of interspecific competition are likely to have contributed to the wild dog disappearance and subsequent avoidance of the Serengeti plains. Handling and radio telemetry are invaluable when studying elusive endangered species, yielding information pertinent to their conservation and management, and had no effect on Serengeti wild dog survival.     

Genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure of African wild dogs (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lycaon pictus</Emphasis>) in the Greater Limpopo transfrontier conservation area

The Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area (GLTFCA) is one of the last refuges for the endangered African wild dog and hosts roughly one-tenth of the global population. Wild dogs in this area are currently threatened by human encroachment, habitat fragmentation and scarcity of suitable connecting habitat between protected areas. We derived genetic data from mitochondrial and nuclear markers to test the following hypotheses: (i) demographic declines in wild dogs have caused a loss of genetic variation, and (ii) Zimbabwean and South African populations in the GLTFCA have diverged due to the effects of isolation and genetic drift. Genetic patterns among five populations, taken with comparisons to known information, illustrate that allelic richness and heterozygosity have been lost over time, presumably due to effects of inbreeding and genetic drift. Genetic structuring has occurred due to low dispersal rates, which was most apparent between Kruger National Park and the Zimbabwean Lowveld. Immediate strategies to improve gene flow should focus on increasing the quality of habitat corridors between reserves in the GLTFCA and securing higher wild dog survival rates in unprotected areas, with human-mediated translocation only undertaken as a last resort.     

Reproduction in the endangered African wild dog: basic physiology, reproductive suppression and possible benefits of artificial insemination

The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) is an endangered exotic canid with less than 5500 animals remaining in the wild. Despite numerous strategies to conserve this species, numbers of free-living animals are in decline. It is a highly social species with a complex pack structure: separate male and female dominant hierarchies with, typically, participation of subdominant adults in the rearing of the dominant breeding pairs' pups. Basic reproductive knowledge is largely missing in this species, with only limited information available on the profile of reproductive hormones, based on non-invasive endocrine monitoring. The dominant or alpha male and female are reproductively active and the subdominants are generally reproductively suppressed. However, the occasional production of litters by subdominant females and evidence of multiple paternity within litters suggests that fertility of subordinates is not completely inhibited. In this respect, there are still considerable gaps in our knowledge about the mechanisms governing reproduction and reproductive suppression in African wild dogs, particularly the influence of dominance and pack structure on both male and female fertility. Given concerns over the long-term survival of this species, further research in this area is essential to provide valuable information for their captive breeding and conservation. Reproductive information can also be applied to the development of Assisted Reproductive Techniques for this species; the utility of which in African wild dog conservation is also discussed.     

Loss of genetic diversity in an outbreeding species: small population effects in the African wild dog <Emphasis Type="Italic">(Lycaon pictus</Emphasis>)

Genetic studies on the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) have primarily focused on the few remaining large and viable populations. However, investigations on the many isolated small African wild dog populations might also be informative for species management because the majority of extant populations are small and may contain genetic variability that is important for population persistence and for species conservation. Small populations are at higher risk of extinction from stochastic and deterministic demographic processes than larger populations and this is often of more immediate conservation concern than loss of genetic diversity, particularly for species that exhibit out-breeding behaviour such as long distance dispersal which may maintain gene flow. However, the genetic advantages of out-breeding behaviour may be reduced if dispersal is compromised beyond reserve borders (edge effects), further weakening the integrity of small populations. Mitochondrial DNA and 11 microsatellite genetic markers were used to investigate population genetic structure in a small population of out-breeding African wild dogs in Zambia, which occupies an historical dispersal corridor for the species. Results indicated the Zambian population suffered from low allelic richness, and there was significant evidence of a recent population bottleneck. Concurrent ecological data suggests these results were due to habitat fragmentation and restricted dispersal which compromised natural out-breeding mechanisms. This study recommends conservation priorities and management units for the African wild dog that focus on conserving remaining levels of genetic diversity, which may also be applicable for a range of out-breeding species.     

Creating Larger and Better Connected Protected Areas Enhances the Persistence of Big Game Species in the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany Biodiversity Hotspot

The ideal conservation planning approach would enable decision-makers to use population viability analysis to assess the effects of management strategies and threats on all species at the landscape level. However, the lack of high-quality data derived from long-term studies, and uncertainty in model parameters and/or structure, often limit the use of population models to only a few species of conservation concern. We used spatially explicit metapopulation models in conjunction with multi-criteria decision analysis to assess how species-specific threats and management interventions would affect the persistence of African wild dog, black rhino, cheetah, elephant, leopard and lion, under six reserve scenarios, thereby providing the basis for deciding on a best course of conservation action in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which forms the central component of the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany biodiversity hotspot. Overall, the results suggest that current strategies of managing populations within individual, small, fenced reserves are unlikely to enhance metapopulation persistence should catastrophic events affect populations in the future. Creating larger and better-connected protected areas would ensure that threats can be better mitigated in the future for both African wild dog and leopard, which can disperse naturally, and black rhino, cheetah, elephant, and lion, which are constrained by electric fences but can be managed using translocation. The importance of both size and connectivity should inform endangered megafauna conservation and management, especially in the context of restoration efforts in increasingly human-dominated landscapes.     

Captive breeding and rearing of critically endangered Mauritius fodies Foudia rubra for reintroduction

In‐situ captive rearing of endangered passerines for reintroduction has rarely been used as a conservation tool. Nests of Mauritius fodies threatened with predation by introduced mammalian predators were harvested from the wild, and chicks were reared to independence for release onto an offshore, predator‐free island. The daily probability of the survival was higher in captivity than in the wild, and 69 chicks were reared to fledging of which 47 would have been expected to fledge in the wild. Harvesting of nests probably had little impact on the wild population. Captive breeding trials on Mauritius fodies showed that large numbers of individuals could be produced for a release program from a small number of pairs if enough space was provided. Artificial incubation of passerine eggs and rearing of chicks can be used to increase the productivity of endangered taxa. Zoos can play an important role in in‐situ conservation programs through provision of avicultural expertise and training of local staff. Zoo Biol 27:255–268, 2008. © 2008 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

The effects of anthrax on endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus)

African wild dogs ( Lycaon pictus ) are large, social canids formerly found throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Wild dogs are now endangered; only six nations hold populations larger than 100 individuals. Considerable evidence suggests that disease plays a central role in the regulation of some wild dog populations. In particular, it has been suggested that epizootics of rabies, canine distemper and anthrax can have strong local effects on wild dog numbers. Resolution of the regulatory importance of these diseases has been hampered by lack of data from wild populations. Here we report on an outbreak of anthrax among wild dogs in the Selous Game Reserve in southern Tanzania, describing clinical signs and diagnosis, measuring mortality, and testing for effects on hunting success and movements. Only one of five packs under study was affected. Immediate mortality was mild, with none of 18 adults (0%) and four of 24 pups (17%) dying. Mortality was significantly higher among puppies (<1 year old) than among adults. Mortality of individuals that showed signs of disease but did not die immediately was not significantly elevated over the following six months. The hunting success and movement patterns of the pack were not affected by the outbreak. Collectively, these data suggest that African wild dogs possess a degree of resistance to anthrax.     

Experimental release of an Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus)

Reintroduction to the wild of threatened species has become a modern additional justification for captive propagation. This conservation procedure is costly, and both economic resources and the absence of optimal conditions in the field limit the IUCN recommendations for reintroduction to a small proportion of potential candidate species. Furthermore reintroduction attempts often fail. In carnivores, reintroduction failure is attributed to unsuitable adaptation in the field by captive-reared animals, due to their lack of hunting skills, their tendency to leave the target area, their inadequate interaction with conspecifics or their excessive confidence in humans. This list of causes is based on very few studies of carnivore adaptation after reintroduction. In very rare and endangered species, monitoring individual case-histories is the only way to evaluate reintroduction success. We report a successful experimental release of an Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) which grew up in captivity. Careful feeding-training and avoidance of human contact during the captive phase, as well as good habitat quality and correct interaction with other wild lynx in the release site, seem to account for the observed success. Permanence of the lynx within the release area might be related to the availability of territory vacancies in the receiving population. Our results allow some optimism for future reintroductions of this endangered species in areas where it has become extinct recently.     

Genetic analysis shows low levels of hybridization between African wildcats (Felis silvestris lybica) and domestic cats (F. s. catus) in South Africa

Hybridization between domestic and wild animals is a major concern for biodiversity conservation, and as habitats become increasingly fragmented, conserving biodiversity at all levels, including genetic, becomes increasingly important. Except for tropical forests and true deserts, African wildcats occur across the African continent; however, almost no work has been carried out to assess its genetic status and extent of hybridization with domestic cats. For example, in South Africa it has been argued that the long‐term viability of maintaining pure wildcat populations lies in large protected areas only, isolated from human populations. Two of the largest protected areas in Africa, the Kgalagadi Transfrontier and Kruger National Parks, as well as the size of South Africa and range of landscape uses, provide a model situation to assess how habitat fragmentation and heterogeneity influences the genetic purity of African wildcats. Using population genetic and home range data, we examined the genetic purity of African wildcats and their suspected hybrids across South Africa, including areas within and outside of protected areas. Overall, we found African wildcat populations to be genetically relatively pure, but instances of hybridization and a significant relationship between the genetic distinctiveness (purity) of wildcats and human population pressure were evident. The genetically purest African wildcats were found in the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park, while samples from around Kruger National Park showed cause for concern, especially combined with the substantial human population density along the park's boundary. While African wildcat populations in South Africa generally appear to be genetically pure, with low levels of hybridization, our genetic data do suggest that protected areas may play an important role in maintaining genetic purity by reducing the likelihood of contact with domestic cats. We suggest that approaches such as corridors between protected areas are unlikely to remain effective for wildcat conservation, as the proximity to human settlements around these areas is projected to increase the wild/domestic animal interface. Thus, large, isolated protected areas will become increasingly important for wildcat conservation and efforts need to be made to prevent introduction of domestic cats into these areas.     

Genetic differentiation of the African dwarf crocodile Osteolaemus tetraspis Cope, 1861 (Crocodylia: Crocodylidae) and consequences for European zoos

The endangered African dwarf crocodile Osteolaemus tetraspis is distributed in Central and Western Africa. Conventionally, two subspecies were distinguished: Osteolaemus tetraspis tetraspis and Osteolaemus tetraspis osborni. The taxonomic significance of diagnostic morphological characters is still being discussed and the existence of additional species in the Osteolaemus group remains unclear. Recent molecular studies suggest the existence of three allopatric species in the genus Osteolaemus. These results supported a division of the dwarf crocodile into a Congo Basin form (O. osborni), an Ogooué Basin form (O. tetraspis), and a third separate evolutionary lineage from Western Africa. Several European zoos host African dwarf crocodiles. For reasons of conservation and possible reintroduction, it is important to clarify provenance of these zoo animals. Therefore, we conducted molecular and phylogenetic analyses of three mitochondrial and two nuclear gene sequences with all available samples from European zoos and museums. We also estimated the origin of the zoo animals by comparing sequences of wild animals and museum samples of known provenance. Our study strongly supports three distinct lineages of Osteolaemus as recently postulated, but also reveals a fourth evolutionary lineage. We demonstrate that, of the European zoo animals sampled, only one dwarf crocodile corresponds to the Congo Basin form (O. osborni) whereas the majority of individuals correspond to the three other forms. Four zoo animals belong to the new fourth group; but their provenance is still unresolved. The origin of these animals is probably located in an African region from which no wild animal samples are currently available. Further investigations and sampling of other regions should be completed to clarify the identity of this fourth lineage. We found potential hybrids from European zoological gardens using nuclear DNA sequences. The European Studbook will use these results for further breeding programmes to keep genetically suitable ex-situ populations as reassurance colonies for prospective reintroduction into African countries.     

Dispersal behaviour of African wild dogs in Kenya

Dispersal behaviour plays a key role in social organisation, demography and population genetics. We describe dispersal behaviour in a population of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in Kenya. Almost all individuals, of both sexes, left their natal packs, with 45 of 46 reproductively active “alpha” individuals acquiring their status through dispersal. Dispersal age, group size and distance did not differ between males and females. However, only females embarked on secondary dispersal, probably reflecting stronger reproductive competition among females than males. When dispersing, GPS-collared wild dogs travelled further than when resident, both in daylight and by night, following routes an order of magnitude longer than the straight-line distance covered. Dispersers experienced a daily mortality risk three times that experienced by adults in resident packs. The detailed movement data provided by GPS-collars helped to reconcile differences between dispersal patterns reported previously from other wild dog populations. However, the dispersal patterns observed at this and other sites contrast with those assumed in published demographic models for this endangered species. Given the central role of dispersal in demography, models of wild dog population dynamics need to be updated to account for improved understanding of dispersal processes.     

Roseate Terns Sterna dougallii on the southeast coast of South Africa: information on moult and migratory status

Determining the migratory status of seabird populations is crucial for addressing conservation concerns. The Roseate Tern Sterna dougallii is considered endangered in South Africa in view of its small breeding population and the threats to eggs and chicks. Earlier works based on capture-recapture data suggest that this population adopts a partial migratory strategy. Updated capture-recapture data were combined with new data on moult and stable isotopes of scapular feathers to determine whether subpopulations could be identified in the South African breeding population. Moult data on 404 individuals failed to identify subpopulations, but two groups were identifiable with the stable isotopes: one group of four individuals exhibiting low carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios and a second group (comprising the remaining 152 individuals) with significantly higher ratios. The isotope data suggest that birds from the two groups moulted in different areas. Comparisons with published studies showed that the 152 individuals had likely moulted their scapulars in South African waters, but the moulting area for the remaining four individuals could not be ascertained due to the absence of detailed isoscapes in the southern part of the Mozambique Channel. Further work investigating the genetic differentiation between South African and Madagascan Roseate Terns may bring new insight into the migratory behaviour of the South African population.     

Inferring the ancestry of African wild dogs that returned to the Serengeti-Mara

An endangered population of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) disappeared from the Serengeti-Mara area in 1991. The reasons for the extinction are not well understood, but disease was implicated in the disappearance. In 2001, wild dogs naturally re-established themselves in the region. We conducted genetic profiling on samples collected prior and subsequent to this event, as well as samples from three geographically close populations, to determine the potential source of colonisers. Contrary to expectations, we found no evidence of re-colonisation from these nearby wild dog populations. Rather, our analyses suggest that the re-established animals are primarily derived from the same genetic population as the pre-extinction animals, indicating that wild dogs are likely to have persisted in the Serengeti-Mara after 1991. We also detected some migrants that could be derived from genetically distinct populations outside the recovery area. Overall, we did not detect a decline in genetic diversity at either neutral microsatellites or major histocompatibility complex loci, indicating that the supposed disappearance of wild dogs in the Serengeti-Mara did not substantially impact genetic variation of the population.     

Important population viability analysis parameters for giant pandas (Aliuropoda melanoleuca)

Population viability analysis(PVA) is a tool to evaluate the risk of extinction for endangered species and aid conservation decision-making.The quality of PVA output is dependent on parameters related to population dynamics and life-history;however,it has been difficult to collect this information for the giant panda(Aliuropoda melanoleuca),a rare and endangered mammal native to China,confined to some 30 fragmented habitat patches.Since giant pandas are long-lived,mature late,have lower reproductive rates,and show little sexual dimorphism,obtaining data to perform adequate PVA has been difficult.Here,we develop a parameter sensitivity index by modeling the dynamics of six giant panda populations in the Minshan Mountains,in order to determine the parameters most influential to giant panda populations.Our data shows that the giant panda populations are most sensitive to changes in four female parameters:initial breeding age,reproductive rate,mortality rate between age 0 and 1,and mortality rate of adults.The parameter sensitivity index strongly correlated with initial population size,as smaller populations were more sensitive to changes in these four variables.This model suggests that demographic parameters of females have more influence on the results of PVA,indicating that females may play a more important role in giant panda population dynamics than males.Consequently,reintroduction of female individuals to a small giant panda population should be a high priority for conservation efforts.Our findings form a technical basis for the coming program of giant panda reintroduction,and inform which parameters are crucial to successfully and feasibly monitoring wild giant panda populations.