Moose recruitment in relation to bilberry production and bank vole numbers along a summer temperature gradient in Norway

The plant stress hypothesis states that plant stress factors other than herbivory improve herbivore performance due to changes in the content of nutritive or defensive compounds in the plants. In Norway, the bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) is important forage for the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) in winter and for the moose (Alces alces) in summer and autumn. The observed peaks in bank vole numbers after years with high production of bilberries are suggested to be caused by increased winter survival of bank voles due to improved forage quality. High production of bilberries should also lead to higher recruitment rates in moose in the following year. We predict, however, that there is an increasing tendency for a 1-year delay of moose indices relative to vole indices with decreasing summer temperatures, because low temperatures prolong the period needed by plants to recover in the vole peak year, and thus positively affect moose reproduction also in the succeeding year. In eight out of nine counties in south-eastern Norway, there was a positive relationship between the number of calves observed per female moose during hunting and a bilberry seed production index or an autumn bank vole population index. When dividing the study area into regions, there was a negative relationship between a moose-vole time-lag index and the mean summer temperature of the region. These patterns suggest that annual fluctuations in the production of bilberries affect forage quality, but that the effect on moose reproduction also depends on summer temperatures.     

Vulnerability of black grouse hens to goshawk predation: result of food supply or predation facilitation?

The plant cycle hypothesis says that poor-quality food affects both herbivorous voles (Microtinae spp.) and grouse (Tetraonidae spp.) in vole decline years, leading to increased foraging effort in female grouse and thus a higher risk of predation by the goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Poor-quality food (mainly the bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus) for these herbivores is induced by seed masting failure in the previous year, when the bilberry is able to allocate resources for chemical defence (the mast depression hypothesis; MDH). The predation facilitation hypothesis (PFH) in turn states that increased searching activity of vole-eating predators during or after the decline year of voles disturbs incubating and brooding grouse females. The behaviours used by grouse to avoid these terrestrial predators make them more vulnerable to predation by goshawks. We tested the main predictions of the MDH and PFH by collecting long-term (21-year) data from black grouse Tetrao tetrix hens and cocks killed by breeding goshawks supplemented with indices of bilberry crop, vole abundance and small carnivores in the vicinity of Oulu, northern Finland. We did not find obvious support for the prediction of the MDH that there is a negative correlation of bilberry crop in year t with vole abundance and with predation index of black grouse hens in year t + 1. We did find obvious support for the prediction of the PFH that there is a positive correlation between predator abundance and predation index of grouse hens, because the stoat Mustela erminea abundance index was positively related to the predation index of black grouse hens. We suggest that changes in vulnerability of grouse hens may mainly be caused by the guild of vole-eating predators, who shift to alternative prey in the decline phase of the vole cycle, and thus chase grouse hens and chicks to the talons of goshawks and other avian predators.     

Is there a higher risk for herbivore outhreaks after cold mast years? An analysis of two plant/herbivore series from southern Norway

Historical data on two plant‐herbivore interactions from southern Norway were used to test the hypothesis that the degree of herbivore outbreaks in post‐mast years is negatively related to summer temperatures in the mast year, because plants are more depressed after a high seed production if temperatures and thus the photosynthetic activity is low. The plant species were the sessile oak Quercus petraea and the bilberry Vaceinium myrtillus. For the former species post‐mast years were identified from reports given by the local forest authorities for the period 1930–48, and from acorn export curves for the period 1949–98, For the latter species, post‐mast years were identified mainly from bilberry export curves for the period 1920–31, from game reports for the period 1932–78. and from diary notes for the period 1979–87. The herbivore species used were the green oak leaf roller moth Tortrix viridana and the capercaillie Tetrao urogallus. Eight moth outbreaks on oak forests were reported by the forest authorities in the period 1930–98, and they all started in a post‐mast year of the sessile oak. There were however also eleven post‐mast years without moth outbreaks. According to game reports, observations and autumn counts, all increases in the autumn population size of capercaillie during 1920 88 occurred in or after a year with high bilberry production. Among i8 post‐mast years, there were seven with strong increase, seven with slight or moderate increase, and four with no increase. For both herbivore species, post‐mast years with marked population increases had significantly lower summer temperatures in the preceding (mast) year than had post‐mast years with no or slight increases. For moth populations there also was a negative effect of high temperatures in April, possibly because moth eggs tend to hatch too early relative lo budburst if spring temperatures are high. For the capercaillie, high amount of precipitation in June – July seemed to have some negative impact on the autumn population sizes, as also found in previous studies.     

Evidence for different bottom-up mechanisms in wood mouse ( Apodemus sylvaticus ) and bank vole ( Myodes glareolus ) population fluctuations in Southern Norway

Animals that feed on forest tree seeds, such as Apodemus mice, increase in number after a mast year. At high latitudes, there is a similar delayed response by Myodes voles to high seed crops of bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), but here the mechanism is hypothesised to be increased forage quality, caused by a trade-off between reproduction and defence in the plants. Both Apodemus mice and Myodes voles eat berries, but only the latter feed on bilberry plants. Hence, only Myodes voles are predicted to respond to bilberry peak years. A second prediction is that the effect should last longer than any possible direct impacts of bilberries, because the plants would not be able to rebuild their defence until the succeeding summer. During a 21-year snap-trapping study of small rodents in Southern Norway, the spring population of bank vole (Myodes glareolus) was positively related to a bilberry seed index of the previous year, indicating increased winter survival, whereas the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) was not affected. Also the succeeding autumn population index of the bank vole was positively related to the bilberry index of the previous year, even when controlling for spring population levels. The wood mouse population responded to mast years of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), whereas seeds of Norway spruce (Picea abies) seemed to have some impact on both species. It is concluded that these rodents are mainly limited from below, but by different mechanisms for the granivorous and the herbivorous species.     

Habitat selection by capercaillie in summer and autumn: Is bilberry important?

The use of habitat by female and male adult capercaillie Tetrao urogallus during summer and autumn was studied by comparing the distribution of radio locations of birds with the availability of habitat at forest stand, home range and landscape level in an area of the Bavarian Alps, Germany. Capercaillie preferred forests with structural features typical of their main distribution range, the boreal forest: they selected large patches of old forest with moderate canopy cover of about 50%, and a well developed field layer with high proportions of bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus. Hens selected both home ranges and sites within home ranges in old forest. Ranges selected by cocks did not differ from availability in the study area, but they preferred old forest within their ranges. The size of home ranges was negatively related to bilberry cover both in hens and cocks. The distribution of bilberry also determined habitat use by capercaillie at the landscape scale. The study demonstrated that bilberry is the major determinant of the selection of habitat by capercaillie in landscapes with sparse and fragmentary cover of ericaceous shrubs, such as central Europe.     

Patterns in grouse and Woodcock Scolopax rusticola hunting yields from central Norway 1901–24 do not support the alternative prey hypothesis for grouse cycles

According to the alternative prey hypothesis, autumn populations of ground-nesting game birds fluctuate in synchrony with vole numbers because generalist predators that mainly eat voles switch to alternative prey, such as eggs and chicks, when vole numbers decline. In hunting statistics from Nord-Trøndelag, central Norway, 1901–24, annual fluctuations in the number of Willow Grouse Lagopus lagopus and Western Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus , but not of Woodcock Scolopax rusticola , were positively related to vole numbers in the current year. Both Woodcock and grouse indices were related to hunting indices of Goshawk Accipiter gentilis and to weather variables assumed to influence the birds' survival or reproduction, suggesting that the indices actually reflected local population levels. Synchronous vole and grouse fluctuations are consistent with the alternative prey hypothesis (although predator densities were low in the early 1900s), but the asynchronous Woodcock fluctuations refute the hypothesis. Rather, because the Woodcock does not feed on plants utilized by voles and grouse, I suggest that food quality is the ultimate factor for the synchrony in vole and grouse numbers in Norway.     

Nest loss in capercaillie and black grouse in relation to the small rodent cycle in southeast Norway

Summary The relationship between nest loss in boreal forest grouse and the fluctuations in small rodents was studied at Varaldskogen in southeast Norway during 1979–1986, covering two complete rodent cycles. Nest loss in capercaillie (N=174) and black grouse (N=81) was calculated according to Mayfield (1975) based on nests from radio-equipped hens (N=77) and nests found by other methods (N=178). Small rodent density was measured by snap trapping during spring and autumn. Losses varied as predicted by the classical alternative prey hypothesis (Hagen 1952 and Lack 1954, as elaborated by Angelstam et al. 1984): high losses during rodent crash years (85.5% capercaillie, 51% black grouse), and smaller losses during peak years (54.5% capercaillie, 32.5% black grouse). Losses were inversely related to autumn abundance of rodents in capercaillie (P<0.05), but the correlation was not significant for black grouse (0.10<P<0.20). In capercaillie, the only species with an adequate sample for analysis, no relationship was detected between spring density of rodents and nest loss. Losses during the prepeak years were nearly as high as during crash years, a result inconsistent with the model. We conclude that the numerical response of predators to their cyclic main prey (i.e. small rodents) probably play a main role during the low phase and prepeak year, whereas the dietary shift is most important during the peak and crash year of the cycle.     

Environmental fluctuations facilitate species co-existence and increase decomposition in communities of wood decay fungi

Correlations between mast fruiting of bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus and peak levels of Clethrionomys-voles have been reported from both Norway and Finland, but there has been a discussion whether this is a bottom-up or a top-down relationship. In a multiple regression model, 65% of the variation in a bilberry production index calculated from game reports from southern Norway 1932–1977 could be explained by the berry index of the two preceding years and climate factors acting during key stages of the flowering cycle. High vole populations in previous years did not contribute to explain the fluctuation in berry production. I used the selected model and climate data to predict bilberry production for the period 1978–2004. Predicted berry indices of the current and previous year explained 38% and the total amount of precipitation in May–June explained 16% of the variation in a log-transformed snap-trapping index of bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus 1980–2004. The vole index was not related to any of the climate variables used to predict berry production. This pattern supports the hypothesis that vole cycles are generated by changes in plant chemistry due to climate-synchronized mast fruiting.     

Synchrony in short-term fluctuations of moose calf body mass and bank vole population density supports the mast depression hypothesis

Inter-annual variations in body mass of moose, Alces alces , in Norway and Sweden have been considered as most likely due to direct or indirect effects of weather, but so far predictions of autumn body mass of moose calves on the basis of weather data have given a poor fit to data. A striking, but hitherto unnoticed, feature of several time series on body mass of moose calves from south-eastern Norway is an apparently regular 3–4-year fluctuation pattern. This short-term fluctuation could be due to regular variations in forage quality, e.g. caused by a cyclic seed production of some important food plants, as envisaged by the "mast depression" hypothesis. One plant species important as food for moose calves in autumn is bilberry, Vaccinium myrtillus , which usually produces high seed crops (masts) at intervals of 3–4 years. Populations of the bank vole, Clethrionomys glareolus, which feeds on bilberry shoots in winter, are known to peak in bilberry post-mast years. In two study areas in Norway, there was a positive correlation between the autumn body mass of moose calves and the autumn population index of bank vole in the succeeding year. In the northern area there was an additional positive effect of summer precipitation, whereas in the southern area there was an additional negative effect of summer temperature. In both areas, however, the effect of weather was less pronounced than that of the bank vole index. These results support the mast depression hypothesis.     

Diet and habitat selection in Cantabrian Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus cantabricus): ecological differentiation of a rear-edge population

Cantabrian capercaillie Tetrao urogallus cantabricus is a peripheral population with distinctive phenotypic, biogeographic, and genetic characteristics. Hence, the population may also show substantial ecological differentiation associated with its habitat in purely deciduous forests. We assessed seasonal diet selection, small-scale habitat selection, and patterns of trophic niche width in Cantabrian capercaillie over two years. Diet was found to be a driver of small-scale habitat selection, a result consistent with previous studies of stand-scale habitat selection. Diet and habitat selection showed the importance of beech Fagus sylvatica, holly Ilex aquifolium, bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus, and ferns in Cantabrian capercaillie’s resource selection. Conversely, the abundant oaks Quercus petraea, birches Betula pubescens, and heaths Erica sp. were used below their availability. The reliance on bilberry appears as a unifying characteristic between central and peripheral capercaillie populations. Cantabrian capercaillie showed stronger reliance on understory resources than range-central populations. It also showed wider trophic niche and higher specialization of feeding events. Trophic niche patterns and reliance on ground resources indicated a marked ecological differentiation, which stresses the need for local data and specific conservation actions.     

Use of hunters in wildlife surveys: does hunter and forest grouse habitat selection coincide?

Wildlife monitoring performed by volunteer personnel may suffer from bias with regard to their habitat use. Such errors can lead to erroneous population estimates, evidently influencing both management programmes and research that are based on the monitoring. We used a dataset on hunters’ habitat use in forest while searching for black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) to test whether hunters’ utilisation of the habitat was independent of that of grouse or if it corresponded to the grouse habitat preference. Twenty volunteer hunters with dogs registered their tracks and all observations of capercaillie and black grouse in Østfold County, Norway, during August 2003 and 2004. We performed an ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and a K-select analysis with respect to hunters’ selection for habitat, described with ecogeographical variables related to forest stand characteristics, as well as the habitat preference of the observed grouse, conditional on the habitat utilisation of the hunters. Individual ENFA on the hunter's tracks revealed large variation in the habitat preferences of the hunters. The K-select indicated few overall patterns in the habitat characteristics of grouse observations, conditional on the hunters selected habitat. Accordingly, the results indicate that hunters’ observation of grouse prior to the hunt may give indicators of changes in grouse density unbiased by habitat preference due to the large between-hunter variation in habitat preference, given that a sufficient number of hunters is used. This suggests that such monitoring programmes can provide information about fluctuations in grouse population sizes valuable for both the management and research of forest grouse species.     

Responses by the capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, and the willow grouse Lagopus lagopus, to the green matter available in early spring

Food matter eaten in the first snowless spots early in the spring by capercaillie Tetrao urogallus and willow grouse Lagopus lagopus was studied in Finnish Forest Lapland. When the snow disappears, both species change to feeding mainly on the plants available in the snowless spots, although male capercaillie does not exploit this nutritious diet to the same extent as female capercaillie and willow grouse. Selection in favour of nitrogen and phosphorus-rich food items, i.e. Betula pubescens , male catkins Eriophorum vaginatum , flower buds, and Equisetum spp., stems and tips, seems to be characteristic especially of the female capercaillie, whose winter diet is poor in these elements. Female capercaillie also feeds on more plant species or different parts of plants at one time than willow grouse, while no differences were recorded between male and female willow grouse in the composition of their spring food. The crowberry Empetrum hermaphroditum , almost regularly produces a bountiful berry crop in northern Finland, and since it overwinters well, it represents an easy source of energy and water available almost every spring. The quality and/or the quantity of the green food matter available early in the spring may fluctuate considerably and be of importance for short-term fluctuations in the populations of these tetraonid species.     

Territory occupancy rate of goshawk and gyrfalcon: no evidence of delayed numerical response to grouse numbers

Two recent studies on territory occupancy rates of goshawk Accipiter gentilis and gyrfalcon Falco rusticolus report a 2–3-year-delayed numerical response to grouse numbers, which is a requirement for a hypothesis of predator-generated grouse cycles. The time lags were assumed to reflect the average age of sexual maturity in the raptor species. In southern Norway, however, subadult (two-year-old) goshawk hens occupied only 18–25% of territories where occupancy was not recorded in the preceding year, and there was no significant relationship between the proportion of subadults among recruits and grouse indices two years earlier. We argue that territory occupancy rates are not appropriate indices of total raptor population levels, but rather reflect the proportion of territorial pairs that attempt to nest. Because this depends on the body condition of the hens, fluctuations in other important winter resident prey species (most important for the goshawk) and winter weather (most important for the gyrfalcon) should also be addressed. During 1988–2006, the annual proportion of goshawk territories with recorded nesting attempts in southern Norway was most closely related to the preceding autumn’s population indices of black grouse Tetrao tetrix and mountain hare Lepus timidus, whereas the annual proportion of gyrfalcon territories with observations of falcons or with confirmed breeding attempts in central Norway were best explained by population indices of willow grouse Lagopus lagopus and ptarmigan L. mutus from the previous autumn, and by December temperatures. Hence, our studies do not support the predation hypothesis for grouse cycles.     

Large brood sizes of pied flycatcher, sparrowhawk and goshawk in peak microtine years: support for the mast depression hypothesis

The mast depression hypothesis (MDH) proposes that cyclic population fluctuations of microtines and other herbivores are an effect of cyclic seed cropping of plants. This is because high seed crops, termed masts, are produced at the expense of chemical defence against herbivores. It has generally been assumed that bird-hunting raptors produce high numbers of offspring when microtine prey are abundant because of reduced competition from generalist predators. However, this may also be caused by higher production of herbivorous insects, and thus insectivorous bird prey, because of lower contents of chemical defence compounds in some plant species, such as bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus and cowberry V. vitis-idaea. In Aust-Agder county, southern Norway, the mean brood size of pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus and goshawk A. gentilis was higher in peak vole years than in other years. The effect was not due to variation in nest predation, as only successful nesting attempts were included in the analyses. For the pied flycatcher, the annual proportion of large broods (>6 fledglings) was positively correlated with the vole trapping index. No correlation was found between the offspring production of goshawks and the proportion of voles in their diet. During a 3-year light-trapping study of nocturnal moths prior to our study, four moth species whose larvae ate Vaccinium were commonest in the vole peak year. All these results are consistent with the MDH. Received: 16 March 1998 / Accepted: 20 April 1998     

Cycles in voles and small game in relation to variations in plant production indices in Northern Sweden

Population dynamics for voles (Cricetidae), Tengmalm's owl (Aegolius funereus (L.)), red fox (Vulpes vulpes (L.)) willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus (L.)), black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix (L.)), capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.), hazel hen (Tetrastes bonasia (L.)), mountain hare (Lepus timidus L.) and tularemia (Francisella tularensis (McCoy & Chapin)) and game bird recruitment were studied by index methods in northern Sweden. In addition contemporary temperature records and spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and pine (Pinus silvestris L.) cone crops (as indices for plant production) and the occurrence of forest damage, caused by voles eating bark, were studied.During 1970–80 two synchronous 4-year cycles were observed for voles, predators (Tengmalm's owl and red fox) and their alternative prey species (grouse and mountain hare). In grouse the change of numbers was correlated with that of recruitment. Autumn vole numbers peaked about a year before the other species and extensive forest damage occurred at winter peak densities of voles. These population fluctuations are consistent with a predator-prey model for their regulation. In short the model suggests that vole-food plant interactions trigger the cycle of voles, that voles generate the cycle of predators and that these in turn synchronize alternative prey populations to the others at vole declines.For voles, grouse and red fox the amplitude was higher in the first cycle compared to the second one whilst the opposite was true for the mountain hare. Although temperature and cone crops showed large interannual variations they still implied that herbivore food conditions were better during the former cycle. Hence, the reduction of the amplitude of the vole cycle may be explained by inter-cyclic differences in plant food conditions, implying food shortage (as indicated by bark-eating) at different population levels. The similar decrease of grouse and red fox populations may also be explained by deteriorated food conditions and/or for the fox by an outbreak of sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiae var. vulpes). The increased amplitude of the mountain hare cycle was part of a long-term rise in numbers after a tularemia epidemic in 1967. This is interpreted as a recovery, probably towards the generally higher pre-epidemic population level.     

Role of microbiocenosis of the gastrointestinal tract in the nutrition of grouse

In order to assess the role of the microbiocenosis of the digestive tract of herbivorous birds in transforming poor forage, the activity of cellulolytic enzymes in all departments of the gastrointestinal tract of the black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix) and Western capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) was studied. The functional diversity of microbial communities of different departments was also investigated. In both species of birds, nitrogenase and cellobiohydrolase activities were discovered in the digestive tract, with the maximum observed in the cecum.     

Goshawk predation during winter, spring and summer in a boreal forest area of central Sweden

Predation by goshawks was studied in a central Swedish boreal forest area. Data were collected in winter (January–February) 1977-81 by tracking radio-tagged goshawks, and in the breeding season (April–July) by collecting prey remains at the nest. In the breeding season birds dominated the prey, amounting to 86% of prey number and 91% of prey biomass. Wood pigeon Columba palumbus , black grouse Tetrao tetrix , hooded crow Corvus corone cornix and jay Garrulus glandarius accounted for more than 50% of the prey animals, whereas capercaillie Tetrao urogallus and black grouse accounted for more than 50% of prey biomass. There was no functional response to black grouse density fluctuations. Every year goshawks killed significantly more females than males of both capercaillie and black grouse, due to high vulnerability of the grouse hens while laying and incubating. It was estimated that during spring and early summer goshawk predation removed 25% of the female, and 14% of the male black grouse population. In winter squirrel was the dominating prey, both in terms of number (79%) and weight (56%). The proportion of squirrel in the diet was equally high both in winters of low and high squirrel density. The high proportion of squirrel in the winterdiet, as compared to the breeding season, is believed to be due to squirrels having to accept an increased predation risk in winter, in order to feed efficiently enough.     

Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland

Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator–prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986–2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983–2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator–prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1–3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk–grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than increased model parsimony.     

Two grouse clutches in the same nest: evidence for nest site adoption in capercaillie ( Tetrao urogallus)

We describe the case of an unusually large capercaillie Tetrao urogallus clutch consisting of 12 eggs, of which four chicks hatched. Eight eggs died in an early stage of development. Genetic analyses revealed that the putative mother of the chicks was different from the one laying the unhatched eggs. We compare our results with reports from clutches elsewhere and conclude that nest site adoption is a likely explanation for joint clutches in grouse.This revised version was published online in December 2004. The german abstract has been included.     

UV-B-induced plant stress as a possible cause of ten-year hare cycles

Predation has been assumed to be a necessary factor in the ten-year population cycle of the snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) and Canadian lynx (Lynx canadensis). The UV-B-induced plant stress hypothesis, in contrast, predicts that hare performance, especially reproduction, is negatively related to sunspot numbers, because production of UV-B-protective phenolics in food plants in periods of low sunspot activity, when the ozone layer is thin, increases the availability of amino acids and reduces the amount of phenolics that protect against herbivores. In accordance with the UV-B-induced plant stress hypothesis, and despite the absence of predators that have been assumed to be necessary for hare cycles, mountain hare (Lepus timidus) populations in Norway fluctuate in close synchrony with snowshoe hare populations in Alberta and the Yukon, Canada. When adjusting for the phase of the hare cycle, the natality of snowshoe hare in Alberta 1962–1976 was negatively related to sunspot numbers with a time lag of two years. It is concluded that delayed responses to UV-B-induced changes in plant chemistry during the sunspot cycle is a possible cause of ten-year cycles of hares and other herbivores, for example grouse and forest moths.