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Johne's disease is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection and results in economic losses in the dairy industry. To control MAP transmission in herds, test-based culling has been recommended and immediate culling of high shedding animals is typically implemented. In this study, we quantified the effects of MAP control in US dairy herds, using the basic reproduction ratio R0. The effectiveness of culling strategies was evaluated for good and poor herd management (low- and high-transmission rates, respectively) by a phase diagram approach. To establish a quantitative relationship between culling rates and test properties, we defined the average detection times for low and high shedding animals. The effects of various culling strategies and test characteristics, such as test sensitivity, test turnaround time, and testing interval, were analyzed. To understand the overall effect of model parameters on R0, we performed global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. We also evaluated the effectiveness of culling only high shedding animals by comparing three test methods (fecal culture, fecal polymerase chain reaction, PCR, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, ELISA). Our study shows that, in the case of good herd management, culling of only high shedding animals may be effective in controlling MAP transmission. However, in the case of poor management, in addition to immediate culling of high shedding animals, culling of low shedding animals (based on the fecal culture test) will be necessary. Culling of low shedding animals may be delayed 6-12 months, however, if a shorter testing interval is applied. This study suggests that if farmers prefer culling only high shedding animals, faster MAP detection tests (such as the fecal PCR and ELISA) of higher sensitivity should be applied with high testing frequency, particularly on farms with poor management. Culling of infectious animals with a longer testing interval is generally not effective to control MAP.  相似文献   

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Johne''s disease (JD) is a chronic, enteric disease in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Disease progression follows four distinct stages: silent, subclinical, clinical and advanced. Available diagnostic tests have poor sensitivity and cannot detect early stages of the infection; as a result, only animals in the clinical and advanced stages, which represent the tip of the ‘iceberg’, are identified through testing. The Iceberg Phenomenon is then applied to provide estimates for JD prevalence. For one animal in the advanced stage, it is assumed that there are one to two in the clinical stage, four to eight in the subclinical stage, and ten to fourteen in the silent stage. These ratios, however, are based on little evidence. To evaluate the ratios, we developed a deterministic ordinary differential equation model of JD transmission and disease progression dynamics. When duration periods associated with the natural course of the disease progression are used, the above ratios do not hold. The ratios used to estimate JD prevalence need to be further investigated.  相似文献   

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A bioelectronics sensor has been developed and it is evaluated for the diagnosis of paratuberculosis in goats. Initially hematite nanoparticles were prepared and using this nanoparticles as core, electrically active polyaniline coated magnetic (EAPM) nanoparticles are synthesized from aniline monomer (made electrically active by acid doping). These EAPM nanoparticles were fabricated with rabbit anti-goat IgG for the detection of goat antibodies on the capture pad. The protoplasmic antigen of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) immobilized onto the capture pad will detect the antibody against MAP in the goat sera samples. This bound goat antibody will be detected by the anti-goat IgG previously bound to EAPM. Upon detection the EAPM nanoparticles bridges an electric circuit between the silver electrodes, flanking the capture membrane. The electrical conductance, caused by EAPM, was measured as direct charge transfer between the electrodes. Testing of the biosensor with known Johne's disease (JD) positive and negative serum samples gave significant difference in the electrical conductance value. Further the efficacy of this biosensor was compared with other serological tests like agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) and absorbed ELISA using field sera. Out of 265 goat sera tested, positive results recorded were; AGID 36 (13.59%), bioelectronics sensor 49 (19.14%), and absorbed ELISA 51 (19.25%). This biosensor was also compared in live animals using intradermal Johnin test and nested PCR (detecting mycobacterial DNA in feces) in 65 animals. Of which, positive results recorded in animals were; Johnin test 21 (32%), biosensor 26 (40%) and fecal PCR detected mycobacterial DNA in 28 (43%) animals. Though the nanobioelectronics sensor was slightly less sensitive (not statistically significant) compared to absorbed ELISA and fecal nested PCR for mycobacterial DNA but it was simple to perform in field conditions and requires less time. The speed of detection and the equipment involved would support its application toward the various point-of-care opportunities aimed at control and management of Johne's disease in goats.  相似文献   

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Summary

The subtidal marine algal flora of Sullom Voe was reassessed in 1983 after an interval of ten years. Only a few changes in communities were detected; these, not surprisingly, were at sites of major coastal engineering works.  相似文献   

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