Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: regional analysis of patterns,determinants and implications

We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the patterns of stall in fertility decline in four Eastern African countries. Contrary to patterns of fertility transition in Africa that cut across various socio-economic and geographical groups within countries, we find strong selectivity of fertility stall across different groups and regions in all four countries. In both Kenya and Tanzania where fertility decline has stalled at the national level, it continued to decline among the most educated women and in some regions. While fertility has remained at pre-transition level in Uganda over the past 20 years, there are signs of decline with specific groups of women (especially the most educated, urban and those in the Eastern region) taking the lead. For Zimbabwe, although fertility has continued to decline at the national level, stall is observed among women with less than secondary education and those in some of the regions. We link these intra-country variations to differential changes in socio-economic variables, family planning programme environment and reproductive behaviour models. The results suggest that declines in contraceptive use, increases in unmet need for family planning, increasing preferences for larger families, and increases in adolescent fertility were consistently associated with stalls in subgroup fertility across all four countries. These results are consistent with models that emphasize the role of declines in national and international commitments to family planning programmes in the premature stall in sub-Saharan fertility transition.     

Global analysis of regional differences in craniometric diversity and population substructure.

Estimates of genetic diversity in major geographic regions are frequently made by pooling all individuals into regional aggregates. This method can potentially bias results if there are differences in population substructure within regions, since increased variation among local populations could inflate regional diversity. A preferred method of estimating regional diversity is to compute the mean diversity within local populations. Both methods are applied to a global sample of craniometric data consisting of 57 measurements taken on 1734 crania from 18 local populations in six geographic regions: sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, East Asia, Australasia, Polynesia, and the Americas. Each region is represented by three local populations. Both methods for estimating regional diversity show sub-Saharan Africa to have the highest levels of phenotypic variation, consistent with many genetic studies. Polynesia and the Americas both show high levels of regional diversity when regional aggregates are used, but the lowest mean local population diversity. Regional estimates of F(ST) made using quantitative genetic methods show that both Polynesia and the Americas also have the highest levels of differentiation among local populations, which inflates regional diversity. Regional differences in F(ST) are directly related to the geographic dispersion of samples within each region; higher F(ST) values occur when the local populations are geographically dispersed. These results show that geographic sampling can affect results, and suggest caution in making inferences regarding regional diversity when population substructure is ignored.     

Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945-1979

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.     

Cessation of childbearing in the absence of contraception in Sri Lanka

In data from the Sri Lanka Fertility Survey, 1975, the cessation of childbearing is examined among women who have never used contraception. The sample consisted of 6810 currently or previously married women, 57% of whom reported that they had never used contraception. Cessation of childbearing is studied according to age and marriage duration. The variables analyzed are age at last birth, proportions infertile during the last 5 or 7 years, and the infertile open interval. The duration of breastfeeding is taken into account where necessary, and the contraceptive users and nonusers are compared where appropriate. Non-users tend to cease childbearing early, and therefore are infertile for longer periods during their marriages. It is probably age of the 1st child that influences decisions on future fertility. Among women aged 45-49 who married before age 20 and continued in their 1st marriage, mean age at last live birth in non-users, was 34.5 years, about 2 years earlier than in those who had used contraception. Non-users who married at any age below 30 years cease childbearing well below age 40. The proportion not currently pregnant and infertile over the past 5 years increases with marriage duration among the fertile non-users in each age group. When age at last birth and the duration of breastfeeding in the open interval are taken into account and the reference period is increased to 7 years, the period of infertility increases with marriage duration among nonpregnant non-users below age 45. The proportion of women who were currently not pregnant and had remained infertile over the past 7 years is higher among the older non-users whose 1st child was born more than 10 years ago.     

A Systematic Review of Tobacco Smoking Prevalence and Description of Tobacco Control Strategies in Sub-Saharan African Countries; 2007 to 2014

ObjectiveTo systematically review current smoking prevalence among adults in sub-Saharan Africa from 2007 to May 2014 and to describe the context of tobacco control strategies in these countries.ResultsStudies represented 13 countries. Current smoking prevalence varied widely ranging from 1.8% in Zambia to 25.8% in Sierra Leone. The prevalence of smoking was consistently lower in women compared to men with the widest gender difference observed in Malawi (men 25.9%, women 2.9%). Rwanda had the highest prevalence of women smokers (12.6%) and Ghana had the lowest (0.2%). Rural, urban patterns were inconsistent. Most countries have implemented demand-reduction measures including bans on advertising, and taxation rates but to different extents.ConclusionSmoking prevalence varied widely across sub-Saharan Africa, even between similar country regions, but was always higher in men. High smoking rates were observed among countries in the eastern and southern regions of Africa, mainly among men in Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, and Zambia and women in Rwanda and rural Zambia. Effective action to reduce smoking across sub-Saharan Africa, particularly targeting population groups at increased risk remains a pressing public health priority.     

Population genetics of Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) and the implications for management using biocontrol

The African sugarcane stalk borer, Eldona saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), is widely distributed throughout sub-Saharan Africa and is an important insect pest of maize and sugarcane. The insect shows significant variation in behaviour, host plant and natural enemy guild in different regions. Several attempts to redistribute the natural enemies of E. saccharina from West Africa to South Africa were unsuccessful. The significant behavioural, host plant and natural enemy variations as well as failures of biocontrol attempts evoked a hypothesis of genetic diversification. To evaluate this hypothesis a molecular analysis was conducted on geographically isolated populations of E. saccharina from East, North, South and West Africa, using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) region of the mitochondrial genome. The results revealed that E. saccharina populations are separated into four major units corresponding to the West Africa, Rift Valley, South/East Africa and southern African populations. Mitochondrial DNA divergence among the four populations ranged from 1% to 4.98%. To examine the impact of the observed genetic variation on the fertility of inter-population crosses, a mating experiment was conducted between the Rift valley and South African population to produce an F1 generation, and these were backcrossed with the South African parent population. Fertility of eggs produced by the F1/parent population cross was significantly reduced when compared to fertility of the "true" South African line, and the F1/F1 cross. The contributions of the observed genetic differences and inter population incompatibility for the failure of previous biocontrol attempts are discussed and recommendations on future biocontrol practices are given.     

Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on Incidence of Pregnancy among HIV-Infected Women in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cohort Study

Background

With the rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) services in sub-Saharan Africa there is growing recognition of the importance of fertility and childbearing among HIV-infected women. However there are few data on whether ART initiation influences pregnancy rates.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed data from the Mother-to-Child Transmission-Plus (MTCT-Plus) Initiative, a multicountry HIV care and treatment program for women, children, and families. From 11 programs in seven African countries, women were enrolled into care regardless of HIV disease stage and followed at regular intervals; ART was initiated according to national guidelines on the basis of immunological and/or clinical criteria. Standardized forms were used to collect sociodemographic and clinical data, including incident pregnancies. Overall 589 incident pregnancies were observed among the 4,531 women included in this analysis (pregnancy incidence, 7.8/100 person-years [PY]). The rate of new pregnancies was significantly higher among women receiving ART (9.0/100 PY) compared to women not on ART (6.5/100 PY) (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.19–2.54). Other factors independently associated with increased risk of incident pregnancy included younger age, lower educational attainment, being married or cohabiting, having a male partner enrolled into the program, failure to use nonbarrier contraception, and higher CD4 cell counts.

Conclusions

ART use is associated with significantly higher pregnancy rates among HIV-infected women in sub-Saharan Africa. While the possible behavioral or biomedical mechanisms that may underlie this association require further investigation, these data highlight the importance of pregnancy planning and management as a critical but neglected component of HIV care and treatment services. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Human skin color diversity is highest in sub-Saharan African populations

Previous studies of genetic and craniometric traits have found higher levels of within-population diversity in sub-Saharan Africa compared to other geographic regions. This study examines regional differences in within-population diversity of human skin color. Published data on skin reflectance were collected for 98 male samples from eight geographic regions: sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Europe, West Asia, Southwest Asia, South Asia, Australasia, and the New World. Regional differences in local within-population diversity were examined using two measures of variability: the sample variance and the sample coefficient of variation. For both measures, the average level of within-population diversity is higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in other geographic regions. This difference persists even after adjusting for a correlation between within-population diversity and distance from the equator. Though affected by natural selection, skin color variation shows the same pattern of higher African diversity as found with other traits.     

Coitus, the proximate determinant of conception: inter-country variance in sub-Saharan Africa

There is a general consensus in the literature that fertility differences between populations can be accounted for by differences in just four key proximate determinants: nuptiality, the postpartum non-susceptible period, contraception and abortion. Natural fecundibility is generally assumed to be constant between populations. This paper puts the theoretical and empirical case for a re-evaluation of that assumption, drawing on the under-utilized data on sexual activity collected in the Demographic Health Surveys (DHSs). Using data for married women in nine African countries, the analysis finds substantial population level differences in mean monthly coital frequency, which, if accurate, suggest an important demographic effect. There is a clear regional patterning to these differences, with levels of activity considerably lower among women in the West African populations included in the study than those from East and southern Africa. For West Africa in particular the data indicate the normality of exceptionally long periods of very infrequent or no intercourse by married women outside the period of postpartum abstinence. The findings challenge prevailing presumptions concerning susceptibility to pregnancy in marriage on which statistics for unmet need for family planning are derived. While doubts are raised over the precision of the sexual activity data used, the paper argues for the need for a greater effort to operationalize the 'proximate determinant of conception', not only for more accurate fertility modelling, but also as a planning tool for a more sensitive provision of family planning services in Africa.     

How does variance in fertility change over the demographic transition?

Most work on the human fertility transition has focused on declines in mean fertility. However, understanding changes in the variance of reproductive outcomes can be equally important for evolutionary questions about the heritability of fertility, individual determinants of fertility and changing patterns of reproductive skew. Here, we document how variance in completed fertility among women (45–49 years) differs across 200 surveys in 72 low- to middle-income countries where fertility transitions are currently in progress at various stages. Nearly all (91%) of samples exhibit variance consistent with a Poisson process of fertility, which places systematic, and often severe, theoretical upper bounds on the proportion of variance that can be attributed to individual differences. In contrast to the pattern of total variance, these upper bounds increase from high- to mid-fertility samples, then decline again as samples move from mid to low fertility. Notably, the lowest fertility samples often deviate from a Poisson process. This suggests that as populations move to low fertility their reproduction shifts from a rate-based process to a focus on an ideal number of children. We discuss the implications of these findings for predicting completed fertility from individual-level variables.     

Correcting contraceptive failure rates for sample composition and sample selection bias

Abstract

There is reason to believe that in the short run marriages are becoming more stable in some Western African countries such as Cameroon. One of the crucial questions facing these countries is whether fertility rates can be expected to increase or decrease due in part to the increased stability of marriages. Analyzing 1978 Cameroon World Fertility Survey data and using a multivariate regression model which compares the fertility rate of women who have had at least one marital disruption with that of continuously married women, we studied the relationship between marital instability and fertility. The results show that fertility rates for women married more than once are significantly lower than those for continuously married women even before the end of their first marriage. Furthermore, marital disruption significantly reduces fertility rates after the dissolution of the first marriage. Finally, even after the length of reproductive time lost is controlled, there is an inverse relationship between the number of marriages and fertility. The results are discussed in the context of economic development, modernization, and urbanization.     

Stable aggregate fertility in a time of family change: a decomposition of trends in American fertility, 1970-1999

Population-level birth rates in the United States were largely stable between 1970 and 1999. This stability contrasts with rapid change in marriage rates and fertility timing during the same period. In this article, I use decomposition techniques to analyze this seeming paradox. I decompose the general fertility rate into four components: age distribution, marital status, age-specific nonmarital fertility, and age-specific marital fertility. Absent other changes, declining time spent married would have led to substantial decline in fertility. Several factors combined to counterbalance these changes in marital behavior. Among white women in the 1970s and 1980s, marital fertility rates increased at older ages, consistent with a scenario in which women postponed both marriage and childbearing; increased nonmarital birth rates during this period were not a driving factor in overall fertility trends. Increased nonmarital fertility was more important in compensating for declining time spent married among African American women and among white women in the 1990s.     

Sex Differences in HIV Prevalence Persist over Time: Evidence from 18 Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Objective

The aim of this study was to examine changes over time in the female: male HIV prevalence ratio in 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, overall and when stratified by area of residence, educational attainment and marital status.

Methodology

We used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, which are nationally representative household surveys. By using data from 18 countries with at least two survey rounds with HIV testing, and dividing the countries into three regions (Western/Central, Eastern and Southern) we were able to examine cross-country and regional changes in the female: male HIV prevalence ratio over time. Logistic regression was used to estimate female: male HIV prevalence ratios in urban versus rural areas and for different categories of education and marital status. To assess changes over time, we compared the confidence intervals of the prevalence ratios.

Results

The female: male HIV prevalence ratio was above one in all countries in at least one survey round for both ages 15–24 years and 25–49 years. In 13 out of 18 countries the prevalence ratio was higher for the younger age group compared to the age group 25–49 years (3 significant) and this difference in prevalence ratios between the age groups did not change over time. Overall, there was a higher frequency of increasing than decreasing prevalence ratios. The gender disparity was greater among those who were married/living together than among the never-married, and over time, the ratio was more stable among the married/living together. The study found no clear differential changes by education.

Conclusion

Women continue to carry the greater burden of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa and there is no clear pattern of change in the gap between men and women as the direction and magnitude of change in the prevalence ratios varied greatly.     

Mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 in sub-Saharan Africa: past, present and future challenges

HIV prevalence continues to be high among women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2007 the HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics was >20% in the southern African counties of Botswana, Swaziland, South Africa and Lesotho. Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV can occur in-utero, intrapartum or postnatally. Without any preventive measure the overall rate of the MTCT of HIV in breastfeeding women could be 25-45%. Prior to the discovery of successful antiretroviral interventions to prevent the MTCT of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (before 1999), innovative research determined the magnitude of the problem, the impact of the HIV epidemic on mothers and children, and the main risk factors associated with MTCT. Non-antiretroviral interventions conducted before 1999 such as washing the birth canal with antiseptics and antenatal supplementation with vitamin A did not reduce the MTCT of HIV. However, during the period 1999 to present, major successes were made in the prevention of the MTCT of HIV. The use of single-dose nevirapine prophylaxis to the mother and infant reduced the MTCT of HIV to ~12%. Subsequently, longer prophylaxis and combined antiretroviral regimens were shown to be highly effective and very low HIV transmission rates comparable to those in developed countries were reported in some clinical trial settings in sub-Saharan Africa. The future is promising but challenges remain. The current successful intervention modalities are entirely dependent on antiretrovirals and breastfeeding continues to be vital for the survival of the child in the African setting. Reviewing past and present achievements assists in focusing future research and development of prevention programs.     

Sociodemographic attributes of Iranian wives who reported unwanted pregnancies

Abstract

In a 1989 Family Planning Study in Iran, 40 percent of the married women of reproductive age reported that their last or current pregnancies were unwanted and unintended. This finding is consistent with the results obtained from a number of studies undertaken in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. Although the phenomenon of unwanted pregnancy is a significant topic in the population studies, it has received very little attention. This paper shows the differences between two groups: group A, those married women who reported that their last or current pregnancies were wanted, and group B, those married women who reported that their last or current pregnancies were unwanted. The findings of this study clearly show significant differences between these two groups in regard to some key sociodemographic attributes: wife/husband's education, actual and desired fertility, wife's current age, past and present practice of contraceptive methods, and extent of satisfaction with family planning services are among the attributes differentiating these two groups. Our examination of these variables suggests that group B had higher parity, fertility, less desire for more children, less use of contraceptive techniques, and less satisfaction with the efficiency of the contraceptive techniques than group A. The relationship between education and wanted/unwanted pregnancies is mixed. The urban women who wanted‐pregnancies and were 25 years old or older were more educated than those who did not want pregnancies. On the contrary, the rural women whose pregnancies were not wanted were more educated than those who wanted pregnancies regardless of age, parity, and locality differences. Furthermore, the urban/rural women with different levels of parities who did not want to be pregnant were more educated than the urban/rural women who wanted pregnancies. Finally, the standardized regression coefficients, obtained in logistic regression, reveal that among urban women the desire for more children and parity are the first and second most significant independent variables differentiating between group A and group B. Among rural women, living children and the desire for more children were the first and second most important variables differentiating between group A and group B.     

Sociodemographic attributes of Iranian wives who reported unwanted pregnancies

In a 1989 Family Planning Study in Iran, 40 percent of the married women of reproductive age reported that their last or current pregnancies were unwanted and unintended. This finding is consistent with the results obtained from a number of studies undertaken in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. Although the phenomenon of unwanted pregnancy is a significant topic in the population studies, it has received very little attention. This paper shows the differences between two groups: group A, those married women who reported that their last or current pregnancies were wanted, and group B, those married women who reported that their last or current pregnancies were unwanted. The findings of this study clearly show significant differences between these two groups in regard to some key sociodemographic attributes: wife/husband's education, actual and desired fertility, wife's current age, past and present practice of contraceptive methods, and extent of satisfaction with family planning services are among the attributes differentiating these two groups. Our examination of these variables suggests that group B had higher parity, fertility, less desire for more children, less use of contraceptive techniques, and less satisfaction with the efficiency of the contraceptive techniques than group A. The relationship between education and wanted/unwanted pregnancies is mixed. The urban women who wanted pregnancies and were 25 years old or older were more educated than those who did not want pregnancies. On the contrary, the rural women whose pregnancies were not wanted were more educated than those who wanted pregnancies regardless of age, parity, and locality differences. Furthermore, the urban/rural women with different levels of parities who did not want to be pregnant were more educated than the urban/rural women who wanted pregnancies. Finally, the standardized regression coefficients, obtained in logistic regression, reveal that among urban women the desire for more children and parity are the first and second most significant independent variables differentiating between group A and group B. Among rural women, living children and the desire for more children were the first and second most important variables differentiating between group A and group B.     

Educational differences in smoking: international comparison

ObjectiveTo investigate international variations in smoking associated with educational level.DesignInternational comparison of national health, or similar, surveys.SubjectsMen and women aged 20 to 44 years and 45 to 74 years.Setting12 European countries, around 1990.ResultsIn the 45 to 74 year age group, higher rates of current and ever smoking among lower educated subjects were found in some countries only. Among women this was found in Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden, whereas an opposite pattern, with higher educated women smoking more, was found in southern Europe. Among men a similar north-south pattern was found but it was less noticeable than among women. In the 20 to 44 year age group, educational differences in smoking were generally greater than in the older age group, and smoking rates were higher among lower educated people in most countries. Among younger women, a similar north-south pattern was found as among older women. Among younger men, large educational differences in smoking were found for northern European as well as for southern European countries, except for Portugal.ConclusionsThese international variations in social gradients in smoking, which are likely to be related to differences between countries in their stage of the smoking epidemic, may have contributed to the socioeconomic differences in mortality from ischaemic heart disease being greater in northern European countries. The observed age patterns suggest that socioeconomic differences in diseases related to smoking will increase in the coming decades in many European countries.     

Recent trends in rates of sexual activity in sub-Saharan Africa

Over the past five to ten years, the proportion of women who report recent sexual activity has declined in twelve countries in southern and eastern Africa, but not in most of eleven countries in West Africa. Although concentrated among unmarried women, slight declines are evident among married women and across most ages. Although it is difficult to prove, the most likely explanation is the higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS in southern and eastern Africa.     

Size of newborn and caesarean section deliveries among teenagers in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from DHS

This paper uses DHS data from 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, collected in the late 1990s and early 2000s, to examine perceived size of newborn and Caesarean section deliveries among teenagers in the region. A comparison between teenagers and older women, based on logistic regression analyses for individual countries, as well as multilevel logistic analyses applied to pooled data across countries, and controlling for the effects of important socioeconomic and demographic factors, shows that in general, births to teenagers are more likely to be small in size but are less likely to be delivered by Caesarean section compared with births among older women. An examination of the country-level variations shows significant differences in perceived size of newborn and Caesarean section deliveries between countries. However, the observed pattern by maternal age does not vary significantly between countries, suggesting that these patterns are generalizable for the region. For teenagers with characteristics associated with higher odds of Caesarean section, being in a country with an overall higher rate particularly amplifies their individual probability.     

Life Expectancy and the Timing of Life History Events in Developing Countries

Life history theory predicts that greater extrinsic mortality will lead to earlier and higher fertility. To test this prediction, I examine the relationship between life expectancy at birth and several proxies for life history traits (ages at first sex and first marriage, total fertility rate, and ideal number of children), measured for both men and women. Data on sexual behaviors come from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Two separate samples are analyzed: a cross-sectional sample of 62 countries and a panel sample that includes multiple cross-sectional panels from 48 countries. Multivariate regression analysis is used to control for potential confounding variables. The results provide only partial support for the predictions, with greater support among women than men. However, the prediction is not supported in sub-Saharan African countries, most likely owing to the nonequilibrium conditions observed in sub-Saharan Africa with respect to life expectancy. The applicability of the model to understanding HIV/AIDS risk behaviors is discussed.