Agrometeorology and models for the parasite cycle forecast

Insects are strongly influenced by meteorological variables in their natural environment. In agriculture, mathematical models have been developed to understand and forecast the cycle of pests based on climate data. By this manner, with the goal of reduce and rationalize plant chemical treatments, agrometeorological models have been realized to estimate the length and starting times of parasites phenological phases. In Sicily a new network of 95 GSM meteorological stations and a specific mathematical model for Aonidiella aurantii are used by Sicilian Agrometeorological Information System (SIAS) for the integrated pest management program of citrus orchards in the Island. As the plants parasites, vector borne diseases are influenced by climate in their appearance and abundance. In lights of the benefits that could derive from a model for the control of Leishmania vectors, SIAS experiences in modelling were used to develop a deductive model for Phlebotomus perniciosus which represents the major vector of human and canine leishmaniasis in Sicily.     

Agrometeorological service provided by Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute

Information is nowadays one of the crucial elements of contemporary life, and its accessibility affects frequently the possibility of decision making and management – at the top administration level as well as at the level of a particular system user. Modern agriculture, as other spheres of activity, needs actual information supporting end users (farmers and agricultural advisors) in their decisions and activities. Agrometeorological services facilitates better use of meteorological conditions in planning individual works and more efficient plant protection. Furthermore this data can lead also to yield increase. In Poland, the agrometeorological service is provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). In the article, the Polish Agrometeo service and its planned development is described in details. Also some problems and recommendations concerning the service development are listed.     

基于GIS的四川盆周北部山区夏玉米农业气象灾害风险评估——以旺苍县为例

气象灾害是制约我国农业发展的主要因素之一,明确夏玉米农业气象灾害风险对于防灾减灾具有重要意义。本研究基于自然灾害风险理论,以四川盆地北部山区的典型区域(旺苍县)1981—2018年气象数据和玉米产量数据为基础,确定影响夏玉米生产的主要致灾因子,并结合孕灾环境敏感性及承灾体脆弱性构建夏玉米综合农业气象灾害风险评估模型,对四川盆地北部山区夏玉米生产过程中的农业气象灾害风险进行评估。结果表明: 研究期间,成熟期高温、花期暴雨、成熟期暴雨、灌浆期连阴雨和孕穗期干旱是影响研究区夏玉米生长发育的主要农业气象灾害。旺苍县夏玉米农业气象灾害综合风险分布大致呈西南-东北走向,高风险和较高风险区分布区域约占旺苍县总面积的二分之一;灾害风险高值区主要位于研究区西南部,基本与致灾因子危险性高值区一致;灾害风险低值区多集中在西部边缘,此区域亦为成熟期高温、成熟期暴雨、花期暴雨气象灾害的低风险区。     

Agrometeorology in Croatia

Meteorological and Hydrological Service was established 70 years ago and agrometeorological activities (soil temperature measurements and phenological observations) started in 1951. Scientific research is divided into an agricultural meteorology, forest meteorology and plant phenology. The basic purpose of research is the impact of regional climate change on the crop production, on the phenological stages of different plants as forest trees and shrubs, fruit-trees, olive-trees, grapevine and maize, and on the potential wildfire risk. In the operational tasks short-range and medium-range forecasts have been produced for TV and internet since 2004, radio since 1990 and specialized journals since 1988. For further development of Croatian agrometeorology, future plans are using monthly and seasonal forecasts for prediction of the development of yield of major agricultural crops, for irrigation purposes, as well as for potential risk of wildfires and applying satellite data and nowcasting for warning purposes in agriculture and in forest protection against fire.     

Latitudinal patterns in the phenological responses of leaf colouring and leaf fall to climate change in Japan

Aim  To estimate the potential effect of global climate change on the phenological responses of plants it is necessary to estimate spatial variations at larger scales. However, previous studies have not estimated latitudinal patterns in the phenological response directly. We hypothesized that the phenological response of plants varies with latitude, and estimated the phenological response to long-term climate change using autumn phenological events that have been delayed by recent climate change.
Location  Japan.
Methods  We used a 53-year data set to document the latitudinal patterns in the climate responses of the timing of autumn leaf colouring and fall for two tree species over a wide range of latitudes in Japan (31 to 44° N). We calculated single regression slopes for leaf phenological timing and air temperature across Japan and tested their latitudinal patterns using regression models. The effects of latitude, time and their interaction on the responses of the phenological timings were also estimated using generalized linear mixed models.
Results  Our results showed that single regression slopes of leaf phenological timing and air temperature in autumn were positive at most stations. Higher temperatures can delay the timing of leaf phenology. Negative relationships were found between the phenological response of leaves to temperature and latitude. Single regression slopes of the phenological responses at lower latitudes were larger than those at higher latitudes.
Main conclusions  We found negative relationships between leaf phenological responsiveness and latitude. These findings will be important for predicting phenological timing with global climate change.     

Phenological overlap of interacting species in a changing climate: an assessment of available approaches

Concern regarding the biological effects of climate change has led to a recent surge in research to understand the consequences of phenological change for species interactions. This rapidly expanding research program is centered on three lines of inquiry: (1) how the phenological overlap of interacting species is changing, (2) why the phenological overlap of interacting species is changing, and (3) how the phenological overlap of interacting species will change under future climate scenarios. We synthesize the widely disparate approaches currently being used to investigate these questions: (1) interpretation of long‐term phenological data, (2) field observations, (3) experimental manipulations, (4) simulations and nonmechanistic models, and (5) mechanistic models. We present a conceptual framework for selecting approaches that are best matched to the question of interest. We weigh the merits and limitations of each approach, survey the recent literature from diverse systems to quantify their use, and characterize the types of interactions being studied by each of them. We highlight the value of combining approaches and the importance of long‐term data for establishing a baseline of phenological synchrony. Future work that scales up from pairwise species interactions to communities and ecosystems, emphasizing the use of predictive approaches, will be particularly valuable for reaching a broader understanding of the complex effects of climate change on the phenological overlap of interacting species. It will also be important to study a broader range of interactions: to date, most of the research on climate‐induced phenological shifts has focused on terrestrial pairwise resource–consumer interactions, especially those between plants and insects.     

Decoupling of impact factors reveals the response of German winter wheat yields to climatic changes

Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site‐specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)‐fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain‐filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West‐European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid‐1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature‐related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change.     

全球变化下植物物候研究的关键问题

总结了全球变化下植物物候研究的主要进展,针对该领域国内外的几个热点问题进行了讨论。植物物候研究的重心从以前的野外观测和初步统计分析逐步过渡到以揭示物候周期的调控机制和环境效应为主,研究手段从植物物候对环境变化做出反应的表象描述转移到多尺度、多要素耦合关系的综合分析。随着学科交叉研究的不断深入,植物物候研究从植物个体及居群适应性研究转向植物物候变化对生态系统、气候演变、农业生产乃至人类健康等方面影响的系统评估。并且在该转变过程中出现了几个关键性问题,如不同温度带大气温度与光周期对植物物候期贡献力问题、植物物候变化对气候变暖的非线性响应特征、群落水平上植物物候研究的复杂性、以及农业生态系统中作物物候研究的重要性等。对我国植物物候研究现状和管理体系中亟待解决的问题提出了建议。     

The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology

The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground‐based long‐term (20–50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies.     

植物物候学研究进展

植物物候变化在研究陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应时被誉为"矿井中的金丝雀",全球气候变化愈演愈烈,重新引起了人们对植物物候研究的广泛关注。随着观测技术的发展,在各种空间和生态尺度上收集到的物候观测数据迅速累积,尽管已经在多个尺度上（物种、群落和景观尺度）观察到物候变化,但物候变化的机理仍然没有得到很好的理解。回顾了国内外植物物候研究的发展历程;总结了物候数据收集技术进展和全球物候变化的主要趋势;归纳了植物物候变化的机理与驱动因素;探讨了物候模型研究及物候对气候变化响应研究的主要方向。随着物候观测技术在不同尺度上应用的增加,物候研究进入了一个新的阶段。未来物候研究需要制定跨区域标准化观测指南,融合所有相关学科,改进物候模型,拓展研究区域;同时融合有效的历史物候资料,采用新技术和长期收集的物候数据为大数据时代植物物候学研究提供基础。     

Phenological indices of avian reproduction: cryptic shifts and prediction across large spatial and temporal scales

Climate change‐induced shifts in phenology have important demographic consequences, and are frequently used to assess species' sensitivity to climate change. Therefore, developing accurate phenological predictions is an important step in modeling species' responses to climate change. The ability of such phenological models to predict effects at larger spatial and temporal scales has rarely been assessed. It is also not clear whether the most frequently used phenological index, namely the average date of a phenological event across a population, adequately captures phenological shifts in the distribution of events across the season. We use the long‐tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus (Fig. 1) as a case study to explore these issues. We use an intensive 17‐year local study to model mean breeding date and test the capacity of this local model to predict phenology at larger spatial and temporal scales. We assess whether local models of breeding initiation, termination, and renesting reveal phenological shifts and responses to climate not detected by a standard phenological index, that is, population average lay date. These models take predation timing/intensity into account. The locally‐derived model performs well at predicting phenology at the national scale over several decades, at both high and low temperatures. In the local model, a trend toward warmer Aprils is associated with a significant advance in termination dates, probably in response to phenological shifts in food supply. This results in a 33% reduction in breeding season length over 17 years – a substantial loss of reproductive opportunity that is not detected by the index of population average lay date. We show that standard phenological indices can fail to detect patterns indicative of negative climatic effects, potentially biasing assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change. More positively, we demonstrate the potential of detailed local studies for developing broader‐scale predictive models of future phenological shifts.     

A new herbarium-based method for reconstructing the phenology of plant species across large areas

Phenological data have recently emerged as particularly effective tools for studying the impact of climate change on plants, but long phenological records are rare. The lack of phenological observations can nevertheless be filled by herbarium specimens as long as some correction procedures are applied to take into account the different climatic conditions associated with sampling locations. In this study, we propose a new herbarium-based method for reconstructing the flowering dates of plant species that have been collected across large areas. Coltsfoot (Tussilago farfara L.) specimens from southern Quebec were used to test the method. Flowering dates for coltsfoot herbarium specimens were adjusted according to the date of disappearance of snow cover in the region where they were collected and compared using a reference point (the date of earliest snowmelt). In southern Quebec, coltsfoot blooms earlier at present (15-31 d) than during the first part of the 20th century. This phenomenon is likely associated with the climate warming trends recorded in this region in the last century, especially during the last three decades when the month of April became warmer, thereby favoring very early-flowering cases. The earlier flowering of coltsfoot is, however, only noticeable in large urban areas (Montreal, Quebec City), suggesting a strong urban heat island effect on the flowering of this plant. Herbarium specimens are useful phenological indicators; however, the databases should be carefully examined prior to analysis to detect biases or trends associated with sampling locations.     

A systematic review of vegetation phenology in Africa

The study of vegetation phenology is important because it is a sensitive indicator of climate changes and it regulates carbon, energy and water fluxes between the land and atmosphere. Africa, which has 17% of the global forest cover, contributes significantly to the global carbon budget and has been identified as potentially highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. In spite of this, very little is known about vegetation phenology across Africa and the factors regulating vegetation growth and dynamics. Hence, this review aimed to provide a synthesis of studies of related Africa's vegetation phenology and classify them based on the methods and techniques used in order to identify major research gaps. Significant increases in the number of phenological studies in the last decade were observed, with over 70% of studies adopting a satellite-based remote sensing approach to monitor vegetation phenology. Whereas ground based studies that provide detailed characterisation of vegetation phenological development, occurred rarely in the continent. Similarly, less than 14% of satellite-based remote sensing studies evaluated vegetation phenology at the continental scale using coarse spatial resolution datasets. Even more evident was the lack of research focusing on the impacts of climate change on vegetation phenology. Consequently, given the importance and the uniqueness of both methods of phenological assessment, there is need for more ground-based studies to enable greater understanding of phenology at the species level. Likewise, finer spatial resolution satellite sensor data for regional phenological assessment is required, with a greater focus on the relationship between climate change and vegetation phenological changes. This would contribute greatly to debates over climate change impacts and, most importantly, climate change mitigation strategies.     

Increasing the robustness of phenological models for Vitis vinifera cv. Chardonnay

Phenological models are important tools for planning viticultural practices in the short term and for projecting the impact of climate change on grapevine (Vitis vinifera) in the long term. However, the difficulties in obtaining phenological models which provide accurate predictions on a regional scale prevent them from being exploited to their full potential. The aim of this work was to obtain a robust phenological model for V. vinifera cv. Chardonnay. During calibration of the sub-models for budburst, flowering and veraison we implemented a series of measures to prevent overfitting and to give greater physiological meaning to the models. Among these were the use of experimental information on the response of Chardonnay to forcing temperatures, restriction of parameter space into physiologically meaningful limits prior to calibration, and simplification of the previously selected sub-models. The resulting process-based model had good internal validity and a good level of accuracy in predicting phenological events from external datasets. Model performance was especially high for the prediction of flowering and veraison, and comparison with other models confirmed it as a better predictor of phenology, even in extremely warm years. The modelling study highlighted a different phenological behaviour at the only mountain station, Cembra. We hypothesised that phenotypical plasticity could lead to growth rates adapting to a lower mean temperature, a mechanism not usually accounted for by phenological models.     

Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns

Shifts in species' phenology in response to climate change have wide-ranging consequences for ecological systems. However, significant variability in species' responses, together with limited data, frustrates efforts to forecast the consequences of ongoing phenological changes. Herein, we use a case study of three North American plant communities to explore the implications of variability across levels of organisation (within and among species, and among communities) for forecasting responses to climate change. We show how despite significant variation among species in sensitivities to climate, comparable patterns emerge at the community level once regional climate drivers are accounted for. However, communities differ with respect to projected patterns of divergence and overlap among their species' phenological distributions in response to climate change. These analyses and a review of hypotheses suggest how explicit consideration of spatial scale and levels of biological organisation may help to understand and forecast phenological responses to climate change.     

Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long‐lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process‐based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios.     

Phylogenetic conservatism and climate factors shape flowering phenology in alpine meadows

The study of phylogenetic conservatism in alpine plant phenology is critical for predicting climate change impacts; currently we have a poor understanding of how phylogeny and climate factors interactively influence plant phenology. Therefore, we explored the influence of phylogeny and climate factors on flowering phenology in alpine meadows. For two different types of alpine plant communities, we recorded phenological data, including flowering peak, first flower budding, first flowering, first fruiting and the flowering end for 62 species over the course of 5 years (2008–2012). From sequences in two plastid regions, we constructed phylogenetic trees. We used Blomberg’s K and Pagel’s lambda to assess the phylogenetic signal in phenological traits and species’ phenological responses to climate factors. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in the date of all reproductive phenological events and in species’ phenological responses to weekly day length and temperature. The number of species in flower was strongly associated with the weekly day lengths and followed by the weekly temperature prior to phenological activity. Based on phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) analysis, we found a highly shared influence of phylogeny and climate factors on alpine species flowering phenology. Our results suggest the phylogenetic conservatism in both flowering and fruiting phenology may depend on the similarity of responses to external environmental cues among close relatives.     

Elevational trends in butterfly phenology: implications for species responses to climate change

1. Impacts of global change on the distribution, abundance, and phenology of species have been widely documented. In particular, recent climate change has led to widespread changes in animal and plant seasonality, leading to debate about its potential to cause phenological mismatches among interacting taxa. 2. In mountainous regions, populations of many species show pronounced phenological gradients over short geographic distances, presenting the opportunity to test for effects of climate on phenology, independent of variation in confounding factors such as photoperiod. 3. Here we show for 32 butterfly species sampled for five years over a 1700 m gradient (560–2260 m) in a Mediterranean mountain range that, on average, annual flight period is delayed with elevation by 15–22 days per kilometre. Species mainly occurring at low elevations in the region, and to some extent those flying earlier in the year, showed phenological delays of 23–36 days per kilometre, whereas the flight periods of species that occupy high elevations, or fly in late summer, were consistently more synchronised over the elevation gradient. 4. Elevational patterns in phenology appear to reflect a narrowing phenological window of opportunity for larval and adult butterfly activity of high elevation and late‐flying species. 5. Here, we speculate as to the causes of these patterns, and the consequences for our ability to predict species responses to climate change. Our results raise questions about the use of space–time substitutions in predicting phenological responses to climate change, since traits relating to flight period and environmental associations may influence the capacity of species to adapt to changing climates.     

Genetic diversity increases regional variation in phenological dates in response to climate change

Climate change is inducing changes in the phenological timings of organisms. Genetic diversity could influence phenological responses to climate change, but empirical evidence is very limited. We estimated the regional variation across Japan in flowering and leaf budburst dates of plants based on a dataset of phenological timings from 1953 to 2005. The observed plants' genetic diversities varied according to human cultivation. The within-species variations of phenological response to temperature as well as regional variations were less in the plant populations with lower genetic diversity. Thus, genetic diversity influences the variation in phenological responses of plant populations. Under increased temperatures, low variation in phenological responses may allow drastic changes in the phenology of plant populations with synchronized phenological timings. Our findings indicate that we should pay attention to maintaining genetic diversity of populations to alleviate changes in phenology due to future climate change.     

Community‐wide changes in intertaxonomic temporal co‐occurrence resulting from phenological shifts

Global climate change is known to affect the assembly of ecological communities by altering species' spatial distribution patterns, but little is known about how climate change may affect community assembly by changing species' temporal co‐occurrence patterns, which is highly likely given the widely observed phenological shifts associated with climate change. Here, we analyzed a 29‐year phenological data set comprising community‐level information on the timing and span of temporal occurrence in 11 seasonally occurring animal taxon groups from 329 local meteorological observatories across China. We show that widespread shifts in phenology have resulted in community‐wide changes in the temporal overlap between taxa that are dominated by extensions, and that these changes are largely due to taxa's altered span of temporal occurrence rather than the degree of synchrony in phenological shifts. Importantly, our findings also suggest that climate change may have led to less phenological mismatch than generally presumed, and that the context under which to discuss the ecological consequences of phenological shifts should be expanded beyond asynchronous shifts.