种群统计随机性和环境随机性对种群绝灭的影响

影响种群绝灭的随机干扰可分为种群统计随机性、环境随机性和随机灾害三大类。在相对稳定的环境条件下和相对较短的时间内,以前两类随机干扰对种群绝灭的影响为生态学家关注的焦点。但是,由于自然种群动态及其影响因子的复杂特征,进一步深入研究随机干扰对种群绝灭的作用在理论上和实践上都必须发展新的技术手段。本文回顾了种群统计随机性与环境随机性的概念起源与发展,系统阐述了其分析方法。归纳了两类随机性在种群绝灭研究中的应用范围、作用方式和特点的异同和区别方法。各类随机作用与种群动态之间关系的理论研究与对种群绝灭机理的实践研究紧密相关。根据理论模型模拟和自然种群实际分析两方面的研究现状,作者提出了进一步深入研究随机作用与种群非线性动态方法的策略。指出了随机干扰影响种群绝灭过程的研究的方向：更多的研究将从单纯的定性分析随机干扰对种群动力学简单性质的作用,转向结合特定的种群非线性动态特征和各类随机力作用特点具体分析绝灭极端动态的成因,以期做出精确的预测。     

种群生存力分析研究进展和趋势

种群生存力分析（PVA）是正在迅速发展的新方法,已成为保护生物学研究的热点。它主要研究随机干扰对小种群绝灭的影响,其目的是制定最小可存活种群（MVP）,把绝灭减少到可接受的水平。随机干扰可分四类;统计随机性,环境随机性,自然灾害和遗传随机性。确定MVP的方法有三种：理论模型,模拟模型,模拟模型和岛屿生物地理学方法。理论模型主要研究理想或特定条件下随机因素对种群的影响;模拟模型是利用计算机模拟种群绝灭过程;岛屿生物地理学方法主要分析岛屿物种的分布和存活,证实分析模型和模拟模型。已有大量的文献研究统计随机性,环境随机性和自然灾害的行为特征,但遗传因素与种群生存力之间的关系还不清楚。建立包括四种随机性的综合性模型,广泛地检验PVA模型,系统地研制目标种的遗传和生态特性以及MVP的实际应用是PVA的发展趋势。     

Compartmental models with multiple sources of stochastic variability: The one-compartment,time invariant hazard rate case

Previous stochastic compartmental models have introduced the primary source of stochasticity through either a probabilistic transfer mechanism or a random rate coefficient. This paper combines these primary sources into a unified stochastic compartmental model. Twelve different stochastic models are produced by combining various sources of stochasticity and the mean value and the covariance for each of the twelve models is derived. The covariance of each model has a different form whereby the individual sources of stochasticity are identificable from data. The various stochastic models are illustrated for certain specified distributions of the rate coefficient and of the initial count. Several properties of the models are derived and discussed. Among these is the fact that the expected count of a model with a random rate coefficient will always exceed the expected count of a model with a fixed coefficient evaluated at the mean rate. A general modeling strategy for the onecompartment, time invariant hazard rate is also proposed.     

Fluctuating Environments and Phytoplankton Community Structure: A Stochastic Model

Spatial heterogeneity in organism and resource distributions can generate temporal heterogeneity in resource access for simple organisms like phytoplankton. The role of temporal heterogeneity as a structuring force for simple communities is investigated via models of phytoplankton with contrasting life histories competing for a single fluctuating resource. A stochastic model in which environmental and demographic stochasticity are treated separately is compared with a model with deterministic resource variation to assess the importance of stochasticity. When compared with the deterministic model, the stochastic model allows for coexistence over a wider range of parameter values (or life-history types). The model suggests that demographic stochasticity alone is far more important in increasing the possibility of coexistence than environmental stochasticity alone. However, the combined effects of both types of stochasticity produce the largest likelihood of coexistence. Finally, the influence of relative nutrient levels and nutrient pulse frequency on these results is addressed. We relate our findings to variable environment theory with evidence for both relative nonlinearity and the storage effect acting in this model. We show for the first time that temporal dynamics generated by demographic stochasticity may operate like the storage effect at particular spatial scales.     

Growth models with stochastic differential equations. an example from tumor immunology

The effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the qualitative behavior of a mathematical model from tumor immunology are studied. The model is defined in terms of a stochastic differential equation whose solution is a limiting diffusion process to a branching process with random environments.     

Stochastic ontogenetic allometry: the statistical dynamics of relative growth

Background

In the absence of stochasticity, allometric growth throughout ontogeny is axiomatically described by the logarithm-transformed power-law model, , where and are the logarithmic sizes of two traits at any given time t. Realistically, however, stochasticity is an inherent property of ontogenetic allometry. Due to the inherent stochasticity in both and , the ontogenetic allometry coefficients, and k, can vary with t and have intricate temporal distributions that are governed by the central and mixed moments of the random ontogenetic growth functions, and . Unfortunately, there is no probabilistic model for analyzing these informative ontogenetic statistical moments.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This study treats and as correlated stochastic processes to formulate the exact probabilistic version of each of the ontogenetic allometry coefficients. In particular, the statistical dynamics of relative growth is addressed by analyzing the allometric growth factors that affect the temporal distribution of the probabilistic version of the relative growth rate, , where is the expected value of the ratio of stochastic to stochastic , and and are the numerator and the denominator of , respectively. These allometric growth factors, which provide important insight into ontogenetic allometry but appear only when stochasticity is introduced, describe the central and mixed moments of and as differentiable real-valued functions of t.

Conclusions/Significance

Failure to account for the inherent stochasticity in both and leads not only to the miscalculation of k, but also to the omission of all of the informative ontogenetic statistical moments that affect the size of traits and the timing and rate of development of traits. Furthermore, even though the stochastic process and the stochastic process are linearly related, k can vary with t.     

The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments

This paper presents a model describing how the uncertainty due to influential exogenous processes combines with stochasticity intrinsic to physiological aging processes and propagates through time to generate uncertainty about the future physiological state of the population. Variance expressions are derived for (a) the future values of the physiological variables under the assumption that external factors evolve under a linear stochastic diffusion process, and (b) the cohort survival functions and cohort life expectancies which reflect the uncertainty in the future values of the physiological variables. The model implies that a major component of uncertainty in forecasts of the physiological characteristics of a closed cohort is due to differential rates of survival associated with different realizations of the external process. This suggests that the limits to forecasting may be different in physiological systems subject to systematic mortality than in physical systems such as weather where the concepts of closed cohorts and of mortality selection have no simple analog.     

Stochastic Cardiac Pacing Increases Ventricular Electrical Stability—A Computational Study

The ventricular tissue is activated in a stochastic rather than in a deterministic rhythm due to the inherent heart rate variability (HRV). Low HRV is a known predictor for arrhythmia events and traditionally is attributed to autonomic nervous system tone damage. Yet, there is no model that directly assesses the antiarrhythmic effect of pacing stochasticity per se. One-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) human ventricular tissues were modeled, and both deterministic and stochastic pacing protocols were applied. Action potential duration restitution (APDR) and conduction velocity restitution (CVR) curves were generated and analyzed, and the propensity and characteristics of action potential duration (APD) alternans were investigated. In the 1D model, pacing stochasticity was found to sustain a moderating effect on the APDR curve by reducing its slope, rendering the tissue less arrhythmogenic. Moreover, stochasticity was found to be a significant antagonist to the development of concordant APD alternans. These effects were generally amplified with increased variability in the pacing cycle intervals. In addition, in the 2D tissue configuration, stochastic pacing exerted a protective antiarrhythmic effect by reducing the spatial APD heterogeneity and converting discordant APD alternans to concordant ones. These results suggest that high cardiac pacing stochasticity is likely to reduce the risk of cardiac arrhythmias in patients.     

Recent exposure to environmental stochasticity does not determine the demographic resilience of natural populations

Escalating climatic and anthropogenic pressures expose ecosystems worldwide to increasingly stochastic environments. Yet, our ability to forecast the responses of natural populations to this increased environmental stochasticity is impeded by a limited understanding of how exposure to stochastic environments shapes demographic resilience. Here, we test the association between local environmental stochasticity and the resilience attributes (e.g. resistance, recovery) of 2242 natural populations across 369 animal and plant species. Contrary to the assumption that past exposure to frequent environmental shifts confers a greater ability to cope with current and future global change, we illustrate how recent environmental stochasticity regimes from the past 50 years do not predict the inherent resistance or recovery potential of natural populations. Instead, demographic resilience is strongly predicted by the phylogenetic relatedness among species, with survival and developmental investments shaping their responses to environmental stochasticity. Accordingly, our findings suggest that demographic resilience is a consequence of evolutionary processes and/or deep-time environmental regimes, rather than recent-past experiences.     

Spatially heterogeneous stochasticity and the adaptive diversification of dormancy

Diversified bet‐hedging, a strategy that leads several individuals with the same genotype to express distinct phenotypes in a given generation, is now well established as a common evolutionary response to environmental stochasticity. Life‐history traits defined as diversified bet‐hedging (e.g. germination or diapause strategies) display marked differences between populations in spatial proximity. In order to find out whether such differences can be explained by local adaptations to spatially heterogeneous environmental stochasticity, we explored the evolution of bet‐hedging dormancy strategies in a metapopulation using a two‐patch model with patch differences in stochastic juvenile survival. We found that spatial differences in the level of environmental stochasticity, restricted dispersal, increased fragmentation and intermediate survival during dormancy all favour the adaptive diversification of bet‐hedging dormancy strategies. Density dependency also plays a major role in the diversification of dormancy strategies because: (i) it may interact locally with environmental stochasticity and amplify its effects; however, (ii) it can also generate chaotic population dynamics that may impede diversification. Our work proposes new hypotheses to explain the spatial patterns of bet‐hedging strategies that we hope will encourage new empirical studies of this topic.     

Stochastic modelling of environmental variation for biological populations

We examine stochastic effects, in particular environmental variability, in population models of biological systems. Some simple models of environmental stochasticity are suggested, and we demonstrate a number of analytic approximations and simulation-based approaches that can usefully be applied to them. Initially, these techniques, including moment-closure approximations and local linearization, are explored in the context of a simple and relatively tractable process. Our presentation seeks to introduce these techniques to a broad-based audience of applied modellers. Therefore, as a test case, we study a natural stochastic formulation of a non-linear deterministic model for nematode infections in ruminants, proposed by Roberts and Grenfell (1991). This system is particularly suitable for our purposes, since it captures the essence of more complicated formulations of parasite demography and herd immunity found in the literature. We explore two modes of behaviour. In the endemic regime the stochastic dynamic fluctuates widely around the non-zero fixed points of the deterministic model. Enhancement of these fluctuations in the presence of environmental stochasticity can lead to extinction events. Using a simple model of environmental fluctuations we show that the magnitude of this system response reflects not only the variance of environmental noise, but also its autocorrelation structure. In the managed regime host-replacement is modelled via periodic perturbation of the population variables. In the absence of environmental variation stochastic effects are negligible, and we examine the system response to a realistic environmental perturbation based on the effect of micro-climatic fluctuations on the contact rate. The resultant stochastic effects and the relevance of analytic approximations based on simple models of environmental stochasticity are discussed.     

The Interrelations among Stochastic Pacing,Stability, and Memory in the Heart

Low pacing variabilty in the heart has been clinically reported as a risk factor for lethal cardiac arrhythmias and arrhythmic death. In a previous simulation study, we demonstrated that stochastic pacing sustains an antiarrhythmic effect by moderating the slope of the action potential duration (APD) restitution curve, by reducing the propensity of APD alternans, converting discordant to concordant alternans, and ultimately preventing wavebreaks. However, the dynamic mechanisms relating pacing stochasticity to tissue stability are not yet known. In this work, we develop a mathematical framework to describe the APD signal using an autoregressive stochastic model, and we establish the interrelations between stochastic pacing, cardiac memory, and cardiac stability, as manifested by the degree of APD alternans. Employing stability analysis tools, we show that increased stochasticity in the ventricular tissue activation sequence works to lower the maximal absolute eigenvalues of the stochastic model, thereby contributing to increased stability. We also show that the memory coefficients of the autoregressive model are modulated by pacing stochasticity in a nonlinear, biphasic way, so that for exceedingly high levels of pacing stochasticity, the antiarrhythmic effect is hampered by increasing APD variance. This work may contribute to establishment of an optimal antiarrhythmic pacing protocol in a future study.     

The Interrelations among Stochastic Pacing,Stability, and Memory in the Heart

Low pacing variabilty in the heart has been clinically reported as a risk factor for lethal cardiac arrhythmias and arrhythmic death. In a previous simulation study, we demonstrated that stochastic pacing sustains an antiarrhythmic effect by moderating the slope of the action potential duration (APD) restitution curve, by reducing the propensity of APD alternans, converting discordant to concordant alternans, and ultimately preventing wavebreaks. However, the dynamic mechanisms relating pacing stochasticity to tissue stability are not yet known. In this work, we develop a mathematical framework to describe the APD signal using an autoregressive stochastic model, and we establish the interrelations between stochastic pacing, cardiac memory, and cardiac stability, as manifested by the degree of APD alternans. Employing stability analysis tools, we show that increased stochasticity in the ventricular tissue activation sequence works to lower the maximal absolute eigenvalues of the stochastic model, thereby contributing to increased stability. We also show that the memory coefficients of the autoregressive model are modulated by pacing stochasticity in a nonlinear, biphasic way, so that for exceedingly high levels of pacing stochasticity, the antiarrhythmic effect is hampered by increasing APD variance. This work may contribute to establishment of an optimal antiarrhythmic pacing protocol in a future study.     

Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations

Understanding population extinctions is a chief goal of ecological theory. While stochastic theories of population growth are commonly used to forecast extinction, models used for prediction have not been adequately tested with experimental data. In a previously published experiment, variation in available food was experimentally manipulated in 281 laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test hypothesized effects of environmental variation on population persistence. Here, half of those data were used to select and fit a stochastic model of population growth to predict extinctions of populations in the other half. When density-dependent demographic stochasticity was detected and incorporated in simple stochastic models, rates of population extinction were accurately predicted or only slightly biased. However, when density-dependent demographic stochasticity was not accounted for, as is usual when forecasting extinction of threatened and endangered species, predicted extinction rates were severely biased. Thus, an experimental demonstration shows that reliable estimates of extinction risk may be obtained for populations in variable environments if high-quality data are available for model selection and if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is accounted for. These results suggest that further consideration of density-dependent demographic stochasticity is required if predicted extinction rates are to be relied upon for conservation planning.     

How does stochasticity in colonization accelerate the speed of invasion in a cellular automaton model?

We investigate the speed of invasion waves for a single species generated by stochastic short- and/or long-distance colonizations in a time-continuous cellular automaton (CA) model on a two-dimensional homogenous landscape. By simulating the CA models, we demonstrate that stochasticity can dramatically increase the speed of invasion compared to the corresponding deterministic CA model or the corresponding one-dimensional stochastic CA model. To explain this phenomenon, we first develop a mathematical model for the invasion involving only short-distance colonization (i.e., colonization only occurs from the eight adjacent cells), and present several approximation methods for solving the model. Our analyses show that the increased wave speed in the stochastic model is due to irregularity in the shape of the wavefront. Further extension of this model to include long-distance colonization demonstrates that stochasticity influences speeds to even greater extents in this case. Using dimension analysis, we deduced a semi-empirical formula for the speed as a function of three parameters intrinsic to short- and long-distance colonization, which agrees well with simulation results. Based on these results, we discuss how important stochasticity in colonization and spatial dimensionality are in the acceleration of invasion speed.     

Does increased stochasticity speed up extinction?

We consider the impact of increased stochastic fluctuations on the extinction date of an unstructured population subject to either environmental or demographical stochasticity (or both). By modelling the population density as a general linear diffusion, we state a set of typically satisfied conditions under which the decreasing minimal r-excessive mapping (and, therefore, the moment generating function) of the considered diffusion process is convex and, consequently, under which the impact of increased stochastic fluctuations on the expected date at which the density becomes arbitrarily small is unambiguously negative. In other words, we establish a set of sufficient conditions under which increased stochasticity speeds up the extinction process independently of whether stochasticity is environmental or demographic. In this way, we are able to confirm that increased stochasticity is detrimental for population growth. Received: 25 April 2000 / Revised version: 18 April 2001 / Published online: 12 October 2001     

Demographic stochasticity, allee effects, and extinction: the influence of mating system and sex ratio

Demographic stochasticity has a substantial influence on the growth of small populations and consequently on their extinction risk. Mating system is one of several population characteristics that may affect this. We use a stochastic pair-formation model to investigate the combined effects of mating system, sex ratio, and population size on demographic stochasticity and thus on extinction risk. Our model is designed to accommodate a continuous range of mating systems and sex ratios as well as several levels of stochasticity. We show that it is not mating system alone but combinations of mating system and sex ratio that are important in shaping the stochastic dynamics of populations. Specifically, polygyny has the potential to give a high demographic variance and to lower the stochastic population growth rate substantially, thus also shortening the time to extinction, but the outcome is highly dependent on the sex ratio. In addition, population size is shown to be important. We find a stochastic Allee effect that is amplified by polygyny. Our results demonstrate that both mating system and sex ratio must be considered in conservation planning and that appreciating the role of stochasticity is key to understanding their effects.     

Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth

We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.