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1.
Climate change will test the evolutionary potential of populations. Information regarding the genetic architecture within and among populations is essential for prediction of evolutionary outcomes. However, little is known about the distribution of genetic variation for relevant traits in natural populations or alteration of genetic architecture in a changing environment. In this study, pedigreed families from three populations of the annual prairie legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were reciprocally transplanted in three environments across a broad latitudinal range in the Great Plains. The underlying premise of this work is that northern populations will in the future experience climates similar to current-day climates further south. Estimates of narrow-sense heritability ranged from 0.053 to 0.481, suggesting the potential for evolutionary change is possible for most traits. In general, the northern population harbored less genetic variation and had lower heritability for traits than the southern population. This population also experienced large reductions in fitness, as measured by estimated lifetime fecundity, when raised in either the intermediate or the southern climate, whereas the difference between the intermediate and southern population was less extreme. For fecundity, the pattern of cross-environment additive genetic correlations was antagonistic to evolutionary change in four of six cases when native and nonnative sites were compared. Six additional antagonistic positive correlations were found for the rate of phenological development and leaf thickness. Overall, the data suggest that if climate changes as predicted, the northern population will face a severe evolutionary challenge in the future because of low heritabilities, cross-environment genetic correlations antagonistic to selection, and demographic instability due to lower seed production in a hotter and drier climate.  相似文献   

2.
Alpine environments are particularly susceptible to environmental changes associated with global warming but there is potential for alpine plants to adapt to warming if local adaptation occurs and gene flow allows genotypes adapted to low altitudes to colonize higher altitude sites. Here we examine the adaptive potential of a common alpine grass, Poa hiemata, within the restricted alpine habitat of Australian mountains, across a narrow altitudinal gradient replicated in three areas. Grasses at high altitude sites had shorter leaf lengths and larger circumferences than those at lower sites. Transplant experiments with clonal material and plants grown from seed indicated that these differences were partly genetic, with environmental and genetic factors both contributing to the differences between altitudes. Differences in altitudinal forms were also evident in a common garden experiment. Plants showed a home-site advantage in terms of survival. A fitness analysis indicated that at high altitude sites, selection favored plants with short leaves and larger circumferences, whereas these traits were selected in the opposite direction at the low altitude sites. These findings indicate cogradient selection and potential for both plastic and genotypic shifts in response to climate change in P. hiemata.  相似文献   

3.
Aim To investigate the potential impacts of climate change on stream fish assemblages in terms of species and biological trait diversity, composition and similarity. Location One‐thousand one‐hundred and ten stream sections in France. Methods We predicted the future potential distribution of 35 common stream fish species facing changes in temperature and precipitation regime. Seven different species distribution models were applied and a consensus forecast was produced to limit uncertainty between single‐models. The potential impacts of climate change on fish assemblages were assessed using both species and biological trait approaches. We then addressed the spatial distribution of potential impacts along the upstream–downstream gradient. Results Overall, climate change was predicted to result in an increase in species and trait diversity. Species and trait composition of the fish assemblages were also projected to be highly modified. Changes in assemblages’ diversity and composition differed strongly along the upstream–downstream gradient, with upstream and midstream assemblages more modified than downstream assemblages. We also predicted a global increase in species and trait similarity between pairwise assemblages indicating a future species and trait homogenization of fish assemblages. Nevertheless, we found that upstream assemblages would differentiate, whereas midstream and downstream assemblages would homogenize. Our results suggested that colonization could be the main driver of the predicted homogenization, while local extinctions could result in assemblage differentiation. Main conclusions This study demonstrated that climate change could lead to contrasted impacts on fish assemblage structure and diversity depending on the position along the upstream–downstream gradient. These results could have important implications in terms of ecosystem monitoring as they could be useful in establishing areas that would need conservation prioritization.  相似文献   

4.
An increasing number of short‐term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present‐day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change.  相似文献   

5.
Adult populations of stable flies were sampled along an altitudinal transect in Reunion Island to determine whether higher temperatures were associated with: (a) higher numbers of flies; (b) a longer season of infestation, and/or (c) different responses to warming in the cosmopolitan Stomoxys calcitrans (L) and the tropical Stomoxys niger niger Macquart (Diptera: Muscidae). Flies of both species were trapped at seven farms situated at four altitudes (100-1600 m a.s.l.) over a 90-week period. For both species, there were no relationships between the maximum or mean fly abundance and altitude. Only minimum abundance in winter was significantly higher at lower altitudes. Maximum and mean abundances differed significantly between nearby farms under similar climatic conditions. Seasonal fluctuations in fly abundance changed along the gradient. At lower altitudes, population growth started earlier after the winter but abundance declined earlier in summer, which resulted in a shift of the season of infestation. Seasonal fluctuations of both species were strongly related to climate variables at high altitude, mainly temperature. However, climate variables explained a decreasing proportion of the variations in abundance at lower altitudes. Stomoxys calcitrans was the most abundant species overall, but the proportion of S. n. niger increased significantly at lower altitudes and this species became predominant at 100 m a.s.l. It is concluded that stable fly infestations are unlikely to worsen in response to global warming. Maximum abundance is limited by local factors, possibly larval resources, which suggests that adequate husbandry practices could override the impact of climate change. Because S. n. niger tends to be the predominant pest at elevated temperatures, it is recommended that this species should not be introduced in areas where climate is changing.  相似文献   

6.
Local adaptation and plasticity pose significant obstacles to predicting plant responses to future climates. Although local adaptation and plasticity in plant functional traits have been documented for many species, less is known about population‐level variation in plasticity and whether such variation is driven by adaptation to environmental variation. We examined clinal variation in traits and performance – and plastic responses to environmental change – for the shrub Artemisia californica along a 700 km gradient characterized (from south to north) by a fourfold increase in precipitation and a 61% decrease in interannual precipitation variation. Plants cloned from five populations along this gradient were grown for 3 years in treatments approximating the precipitation regimes of the north and south range margins. Most traits varying among populations did so clinally; northern populations (vs. southern) had higher water‐use efficiencies and lower growth rates, C : N ratios and terpene concentrations. Notably, there was variation in plasticity for plant performance that was strongly correlated with source site interannual precipitation variability. The high‐precipitation treatment (vs. low) increased growth and flower production more for plants from southern populations (181% and 279%, respectively) than northern populations (47% and 20%, respectively). Overall, precipitation variability at population source sites predicted 86% and 99% of variation in plasticity in growth and flowering, respectively. These striking, clinal patterns in plant traits and plasticity are indicative of adaptation to both the mean and variability of environmental conditions. Furthermore, our analysis of long‐term coastal climate data in turn indicates an increase in interannual precipitation variation consistent with most global change models and, unexpectedly, this increased variation is especially pronounced at historically stable, northern sites. Our findings demonstrate the critical need to integrate fundamental evolutionary processes into global change models, as contemporary patterns of adaptation to environmental clines will mediate future plant responses to projected climate change.  相似文献   

7.
Aims The aims were (1) to assess the species richness and structure of phytophagous Hemiptera communities along a latitudinal gradient, (2) to identify the importance of rare species in structuring these patterns, and (3) to hypothesize about how phytophagous Hemiptera communities may respond to future climate change. Location East coast of Australia. Methods Four latitudes within the 1150 km coastal distribution of Acacia falcata were selected. The insect assemblage on the host plant Acacia falcata was sampled seasonally over two years. Congeneric plant species were also sampled at the sites. Results Ninety‐eight species of phytophagous Hemiptera were collected from A. falcata. Total species richness was significantly lower at the most temperate latitude compared to the three more tropical latitudes. We classified species into four climate change response groups depending on their latitudinal range and apparent host specificity. Pairwise comparisons between groups showed that the cosmopolitan, generalist feeders and specialists had a similar community structure to each other, but the climate generalists had a significantly different structure. Fifty‐seven species were identified as rare. Most of these rare species were phloem hoppers and their removal from the dataset led to changes in the proportional representation of all guilds in two groups: the specialist and generalist feeders. Main conclusions We found no directional increase in phytophagous Hemiptera species richness. This indicates that, at least in the short term, species richness patterns of these communities may be similar to that found today. As the climate continues to change, however, we might expect some increases in species richness at the more temperate latitudes as species migrate in response to shifting climate zones. In the longer term, more substantial changes in community composition will be expected because the rare species, which comprise a large fraction of these communities, will be vulnerable to both direct climatic changes, and indirect effects via changes to their host's distribution.  相似文献   

8.
Mountain ecosystems are particularly susceptible to climate change. Characterizing intraspecific variation of alpine plants along elevational gradients is crucial for estimating their vulnerability to predicted changes. Environmental conditions vary with elevation, which might influence plastic responses and affect selection pressures that lead to local adaptation. Thus, local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among low and high elevation plant populations in response to climate, soil and other factors associated with elevational gradients might underlie different responses of these populations to climate warming. Using a transplant experiment along an elevational gradient, we investigated reproductive phenology, growth and reproduction of the nutrient‐poor grassland species Ranunculus bulbosus, Trifolium montanum and Briza media. Seeds were collected from low and high elevation source populations across the Swiss Alps and grown in nine common gardens at three different elevations with two different soil depths. Despite genetic differentiation in some traits, the results revealed no indication of local adaptation to the elevation of population origin. Reproductive phenology was advanced at lower elevation in low and high elevation populations of all three species. Growth and reproduction of T. montanum and B. media were hardly affected by garden elevation and soil depth. In R. bulbosus, however, growth decreased and reproductive investment increased at higher elevation. Furthermore, soil depth influenced growth and reproduction of low elevation R. bulbosus populations. We found no evidence for local adaptation to elevation of origin and hardly any differences in the responses of low and high elevation populations. However, the consistent advanced reproductive phenology observed in all three species shows that they have the potential to plastically respond to environmental variation. We conclude that populations might not be forced to migrate to higher elevations as a consequence of climate warming, as plasticity will buffer the detrimental effects of climate change in the three investigated nutrient‐poor grassland species.  相似文献   

9.
Invasive alien species might benefit from phenotypic plasticity by being able to (i) maintain fitness in stressful environments (‘robust’), (ii) increase fitness in favourable environments (‘opportunistic’), or (iii) combine both abilities (‘robust and opportunistic’). Here, we applied this framework, for the first time, to an animal, the invasive slug, Arion lusitanicus, and tested (i) whether it has a more adaptive phenotypic plasticity compared with a congeneric native slug, Arion fuscus, and (ii) whether it is robust, opportunistic or both. During one year, we exposed specimens of both species to a range of temperatures along an altitudinal gradient (700–2400 m a.s.l.) and to high and low food levels, and we compared the responsiveness of two fitness traits: survival and egg production. During summer, the invasive species had a more adaptive phenotypic plasticity, and at high temperatures and low food levels, it survived better and produced more eggs than A. fuscus, representing the robust phenotype. During winter, A. lusitanicus displayed a less adaptive phenotype than A. fuscus. We show that the framework developed for plants is also very useful for a better mechanistic understanding of animal invasions. Warmer summers and milder winters might lead to an expansion of this invasive species to higher altitudes and enhance its spread in the lowlands, supporting the concern that global climate change will increase biological invasions.  相似文献   

10.
Background and AimsNon-native plant species are not restricted to lowlands, but increasingly are invading high elevations. While for both native and non-native species we expected variability of plant functional traits due to the changing environmental conditions along elevational gradients, we additionally assumed that non-native species are characterized by a more acquisitive growth strategy, as traits reflecting such a strategy have been found to correlate with invasion success. Furthermore, the typical lowland introduction of non-native species coming from multiple origins should lead to higher trait variability within populations of non-native species specifically at low elevations, and they might therefore occupy a larger total trait space.MethodsAlong an elevational gradient ranging from 55 to 1925 m a.s.l. on Tenerife, we collected leaves from eight replicate individuals in eight evenly distributed populations of five native and six non-native forb species. In each population, we measured ten eco-morphological and leaf biochemical traits and calculated trait variability within each population and the total trait space occupied by native and non-native species.Key ResultsWe found both positive (e.g. leaf dry matter content) and negative (e.g. leaf N) correlations with elevation for native species, but only few responses for non-native species. For non-native species, within-population variability of leaf dry matter content and specific leaf area decreased with elevation, but increased for native species. The total trait space occupied by all non-native species was smaller than and a subset of that of native species.ConclusionsWe found little evidence that intraspecific trait variability is associated with the success of non-native species to spread towards higher elevations. Instead, for non-native species, our results indicate that intermediate trait values that meet the requirements of various conditions are favourable across the changing environmental conditions along elevational gradients. As a consequence, this might prevent non-native species from overcoming abruptly changing environmental conditions, such as when crossing the treeline.  相似文献   

11.
Adaptation through natural selection may be the only means by which small and fragmented plant populations will persist through present day environmental change. A population's additive genetic variance for fitness (VA(W)) represents its immediate capacity to adapt to the environment in which it exists. We evaluated this property for a population of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata through a quantitative genetic experiment in the tallgrass prairie region of the Midwestern United States, where changing climate is predicted to include more variability in rainfall. To reduce incident rainfall, relative to controls receiving ambient rain, we deployed rain exclusion shelters. We found significant VA(W) in both treatments. We also detected a significant genotype‐by‐treatment interaction for fitness, which suggests that the genetic basis of the response to natural selection will differ depending on precipitation. For the trait‐specific leaf area, we detected maladaptive phenotypic plasticity and an interaction between genotype and environment. Selection for thicker leaves was detected with increased precipitation. These results indicate capacity of this population of C. fasciculata to adapt in situ to environmental change.  相似文献   

12.
Deceit‐pollinated orchid species show substantial variation in floral traits, which may be maintained by genetic drift or various forms of selection, or may reflect phenotypic plasticity. We explored how much plasticity occurs in both vegetative and floral traits of Tolumnia variegata (Oncidiinae, Orchidaceae) across two different light environments in Puerto Rico using data from a reciprocal transplant experiment. We also examined how fruit set, a measure of reproductive success and a surrogate for fitness, is associated with this morphological variation, and whether it changes over time. Tolumnia variegata responded to environmental variables in multiple ways. Vegetative characters were more plastic than those associated with sexual reproduction. Transplant effects accounted for significant variation in flower length, lip length, number of inflorescences, peduncle length, leaf length and the total number of ramets, but responses were not always consistent among years. Phenotypic selection on morphological characters was dependent on plant location. The trends detected were complex, and often inconsistent across years, probably as a result of wetter and drier years than average. Overall fruit set was quite variable among plants, averaging 15%, with no significant differences among sun and shade plants. Although reproductive success was similar among sites, habitat heterogeneity and annual variation had an effect on morphological expression, which sometimes modified the trajectories of phenotypic selection. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 163 , 431–446.  相似文献   

13.
Arctic phytoplankton and their response to future conditions shape one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet. We tested how much the phenotypic responses of strains from the same Arctic diatom population diverge and whether the physiology and intraspecific composition of multistrain populations differs from expectations based on single strain traits. To this end, we conducted incubation experiments with the diatom Thalassiosira hyalina under present‐day and future temperature and pCO2 treatments. Six fresh isolates from the same Svalbard population were incubated as mono‐ and multistrain cultures. For the first time, we were able to closely follow intraspecific selection within an artificial population using microsatellites and allele‐specific quantitative PCR. Our results showed not only that there is substantial variation in how strains of the same species cope with the tested environments but also that changes in genotype composition, production rates, and cellular quotas in the multistrain cultures are not predictable from monoculture performance. Nevertheless, the physiological responses as well as strain composition of the artificial populations were highly reproducible within each environment. Interestingly, we only detected significant strain sorting in those populations exposed to the future treatment. This study illustrates that the genetic composition of populations can change on very short timescales through selection from the intraspecific standing stock, indicating the potential for rapid population level adaptation to climate change. We further show that individuals adjust their phenotype not only in response to their physicochemical but also to their biological surroundings. Such intraspecific interactions need to be understood in order to realistically predict ecosystem responses to global change.  相似文献   

14.
A long‐standing debate in evolutionary biology concerns the relative importance of different evolutionary forces in explaining phenotypic diversification at large geographic scales. For example, natural selection is typically assumed to underlie divergence along environmental gradients. However, neutral evolutionary processes can produce similar patterns. We collected molecular genetic data from 14 European populations of Plantago lanceolata to test the contributions of natural selection versus neutral evolution to population divergence in temperature‐sensitive phenotypic plasticity of floral reflectance. In Planceolata, reflectance plasticity is positively correlated with latitude/altitude. We used population pairwise comparisons between neutral genetic differentiation (FST and Jost's D) and phenotypic differentiation (PST) to assess the contributions of geographic distance and environmental parameters of the reproductive season in driving population divergence. Data are consistent with selection having shaped large‐scale geographic patterns in thermal plasticity. The aggregate pattern of PST versus FST was consistent with divergent selection. FST explained thermal plasticity differences only when geographic distance was not included in the model. Differences in the extent of cool reproductive season temperatures, and not overall temperature variation, explained plasticity differences independent of distance. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that thermal plasticity is adaptive where growing seasons are shorter and cooler, that is, at high latitude/altitude.  相似文献   

15.
Aim Species distribution models have been used frequently to assess the effects of climate change on mountain biodiversity. However, the value and accuracy of these assessments have been hampered by the use of low‐resolution data for species distributions and climatic conditions. Herein we assess potential changes in the distribution and community composition of tree species in two mountainous regions of Spain under specific scenarios of climate change using data with a high spatial resolution. We also describe potential changes in species distributions and tree communities along the entire elevational gradient. Location Two mountain ranges in southern Europe: the Central Mountain Range (central west of the Iberian Peninsula), and the Iberian Mountain Range (central east). Methods We modelled current and future distributions of 15 tree species (Eurosiberian, sub‐Mediterranean and Mediterranean species) as functions of climate, lithology and availability of soil water using generalized linear models (logistic regression) and machine learning models (gradient boosting). Using multivariate ordination of a matrix of presence/absence of tree species obtained under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (A2 and B2) for two different periods in the future (2041–70 and 2071–2100), we assessed the predicted changes in the composition of tree communities. Results The models predicted an upward migration of communities of Mediterranean trees to higher elevations and an associated decline in communities of temperate or cold‐adapted trees during the 21st century. It was predicted that 80–99% of the area that shows a climate suitable for cold–wet‐optimum Eurosiberian coniferous and broad‐leaved species will be lost. The largest overall changes were predicted for Mediterranean species found currently at low elevations, such as Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, Quercus ilex ssp. ballota and Juniperus oxycedrus, with sharp increases in their range of 350%. Main conclusions It is likely that areas with climatic conditions suitable for cold‐adapted species will decrease significantly under climate warming. Large changes in species ranges and forest communities might occur, not only at high elevations within Mediterranean mountains but also along the entire elevational gradient throughout this region, particularly at low and mid‐elevations. Mediterranean mountains might lose their key role as refugia for cold‐adapted species and thus an important part of their genetic heritage.  相似文献   

16.
Identification of loci with adaptive importance is a key step to understand the speciation process in natural populations, because those loci are responsible for phenotypic variation that affects fitness in different environments. We conducted an AFLP genome scan in populations of ocellated lizards (Lacerta lepida) to search for candidate loci influenced by selection along an environmental gradient in the Iberian Peninsula. This gradient is strongly influenced by climatic variables, and two subspecies can be recognized at the opposite extremes: L. lepida iberica in the northwest and L. lepida nevadensis in the southeast. Both subspecies show substantial morphological differences that may be involved in their local adaptation to the climatic extremes. To investigate how the use of a particular outlier detection method can influence the results, a frequentist method, DFDIST, and a Bayesian method, BayeScan, were used to search for outliers influenced by selection. Additionally, the spatial analysis method was used to test for associations of AFLP marker band frequencies with 54 climatic variables by logistic regression. Results obtained with each method highlight differences in their sensitivity. DFDIST and BayeScan detected a similar proportion of outliers (3–4%), but only a few loci were simultaneously detected by both methods. Several loci detected as outliers were also associated with temperature, insolation or precipitation according to spatial analysis method. These results are in accordance with reported data in the literature about morphological and life‐history variation of L. lepida subspecies along the environmental gradient.  相似文献   

17.
18.
Variation in three life‐history traits (developmental time, preadult viability and daily female productivity) and five morphometrical traits (thorax length, wing length, wing width, wing/thorax ratio and wing‐aspect ratio) was studied at three developmental temperatures (20, 25 and 30 °C) in Drosophila buzzatii and Drosophila simulans collected on the island of La Gomera (Canary Archipelago). The flies originated from five closely situated localities, representing different altitudes (from 20 to 886 m above sea level) and a range of climatic conditions. We found statistically significant population effects for all traits in D. buzzatii and for most of the traits in D. simulans. Although no correlations of trait values with altitude were detected, geographical patterns for three life‐history traits and body size in D. buzzatii indicated that short‐range geographical variation in this species could be maintained by local climatic selection. Five of eight traits showed population‐by‐temperature interactions either in D. buzzatii or in D. simulans, but in all cases except wing width in D. buzzatii this could not be interpreted as adaptive responses to thermal conditions in the localities. The range of plastic changes across temperatures for particular traits differed between species, indicating a possibility for different levels of environmental stress experienced by the natural populations. The reaction norm curves and the response of within‐population variability to thermal treatments suggested better adaptations to higher and lower temperatures for D. buzzatii and D. simulans, respectively. The levels of among‐population differentiation depended on developmental temperature, implying environmental effects on the expression of the genetic variance. At 20 and 25 °C, interpopulation variability in D. buzzatii was higher than in D. simulans, while at 30 °C the opposite trend was observed. © 2005 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2005, 84 , 119–136.  相似文献   

19.
It is critical to study factors that are important for origin and maintenance of biological diversity. A comparative approach involving a large number of populations is particularly useful. We use this approach to study the relationship between ecological factors and phenotypic diversity in Icelandic Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus). Numerous populations of small benthic charr have evolved in lava springs in Iceland. These charr appear morphologically similar, but differ in important morphological features related to feeding. We found a clear relationship between diversity in morphology, diet, and ecological factors among populations. In particular, there were clear differences in morphology and diet between fish coming from habitats where the lava spring flowed on as a stream compared to habitats where the lava spring flowed into a pond. Our study shows that ecological factors are important for the origin and maintenance of biological diversity. The relationship between phenotype and ecological factors are observed on a fine scale, when comparing numerous populations that are phenotypically similar. This strongly suggests that for understanding, managing, and conserving biological diversity important ecological variables have to be taken into the account.  相似文献   

20.
Population differentiation of alien invasive plants within their non‐native range has received increasingly more attention. Common gardens are typically used to assess the levels of genotypic differentiation among populations. However, in such experiments, environmental maternal effects can influence phenotypic variation among individuals if seed sources are collected from field populations under variable environmental regimes. In the present study, we investigated the causes of an altitudinal cline in an invasive plant. Seeds were collected from Senecio inaequidens (Asteraceae) populations along an altitudinal gradient in southern France. In addition, seeds from the same populations were generated by intra‐population crossings in a climatic chamber. The two seed lots were grown in a common garden in Central Belgium to identify any evidence of environmentally induced maternal effects and/or an altitudinal cline in a suite of life‐history traits. Results failed to detect any environmental maternal effects. However, an altitudinal cline in plant height and above‐ground biomass was found to be independent of the maternal environment.  相似文献   

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