Human population growth and the demographic transition

The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women''s fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, which covers the period of most rapid global demographic transformation.     

Contrasting mitochondrial diversity of European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) across three invasive continental distributions

European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) represent one of the most widespread and problematic avian invasive species in the world. Understanding their unique population history and current population dynamics can contribute to conservation efforts and clarify evolutionary processes over short timescales. European starlings were introduced to Central Park, New York in 1890, and from a founding group of about 100 birds, they have expanded across North America with a current population of approximately 200 million. There were also multiple introductions in Australia in the mid‐19th century and at least one introduction in South Africa in the late 19th century. Independent introductions on these three continents provide a robust system to investigate invasion genetics. In this study, we compare mitochondrial diversity in European starlings from North America, Australia, and South Africa, and a portion of the native range in the United Kingdom. Of the three invasive ranges, the North American population shows the highest haplotype diversity and evidence of both sudden demographic and spatial expansion. Comparatively, the Australian population shows the lowest haplotype diversity, but also shows evidence for sudden demographic and spatial expansion. South Africa is intermediate to the other invasive populations in genetic diversity but does not show evidence of demographic expansion. In previous studies, population genetic structure was found in Australia, but not in South Africa. Here we find no evidence of population structure in North America. Although all invasive populations share haplotypes with the native range, only one haplotype is shared between invasive populations. This suggests these three invasive populations represent independent subsamples of the native range. The structure of the haplotype network implies that the native‐range sampling does not comprehensively characterize the genetic diversity there. This study represents the most geographically widespread analysis of European starling population genetics to date.     

A Cultural–Historical Perspective on the Depressed Fertility Among the Matrilineal Moso in Southwest China

Family systems exert substantial influence on the demographic processes of populations. The Moso in Southwest China feature an institutionalized visiting sexual system, which differs from marriage, and a grand household system without conjugal units. Moso women enjoy virtually unlimited reproductive autonomy. On the basis of surveys of 127 Moso households conducted in 1988 and 1989, this paper analyzes the fertility experience of Moso women during the twentieth century and the mortality rates of the Moso population in the PRC era. Moso fertility patterns are characterized by a late age at first birth (median 23 years), long interbirth intervals (median 3 years), and a high rate of childlessness (16%). We conclude that this pattern of low fertility is an outcome of the unique Moso cultural practices. For the cohorts of Moso women born between 1905 and 1929, pathological sterility caused by STD is likely to have depressed fertility as well.     

Variation in wealth and educational drivers of fertility decline across 45 countries

Fertility decline in human populations is an inherent evolutionary puzzle with major demographic, socio-cultural and evolutionary consequences. The individual level predictors of fertility decline are numerous, but the way these effects vary by country and how they are causally mediated by other factors has received relatively little attention. Here we take a multilevel approach to compare similarities and differences in the primary predictors of contemporary fertility declines—wealth and education—across 45 countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected from 2003 to 2015. We use multilevel models to understand variation in the slopes of these predictors on fertility, and structural equation models to examine the causal pathways by which they take their effects, focusing on four mediating variables: local mortality and birth rates, women’s work status, and contraceptive use. We find that associations between wealth and fertility differ substantially across populations, while associations between education and fertility are consistently negative. The mediators also vary: community-level birth rates and women’s contraceptive use are important mediators between education, wealth and the number of children born across a wide variety of countries, but community-level mortality rates and women’s work status are not. We discuss our results in the context of different causal pathways that reflect cultural and biological evolutionary dynamics as simultaneous and interacting drivers of fertility decline.     

Understanding variation in human fertility: what can we learn from evolutionary demography?

Decades of research on human fertility has presented a clear picture of how fertility varies, including its dramatic decline over the last two centuries in most parts of the world. Why fertility varies, both between and within populations, is not nearly so well understood. Fertility is a complex phenomenon, partly physiologically and partly behaviourally determined, thus an interdisciplinary approach is required to understand it. Evolutionary demographers have focused on human fertility since the 1980s. The first wave of evolutionary demographic research made major theoretical and empirical advances, investigating variation in fertility primarily in terms of fitness maximization. Research focused particularly on variation within high-fertility populations and small-scale subsistence societies and also yielded a number of hypotheses for why fitness maximization seems to break down as fertility declines during the demographic transition. A second wave of evolutionary demography research on fertility is now underway, paying much more attention to the cultural and psychological mechanisms underpinning fertility. It is also engaging with the complex, multi-causal nature of fertility variation, and with understanding fertility in complex modern and transitioning societies. Here, we summarize the history of evolutionary demographic work on human fertility, describe the current state of the field, and suggest future directions.     

Demography of squirrel monkeys (Saimiri sciureus) in captive environments and its effect on population growth

Understanding which life-history variables have the greatest influence on population growth rate has great ecological and conservation importance. Applying models of population regulation and demographic mechanisms can aid management and conservation of both wild and captive populations. By comparisons of sensitivity, elasticity, and life-table response analyses, we identified demographic processes that were most likely to produce changes in population size (via prospective analyses) and the traits that actually influenced population changes (via retrospective analyses) among sexes, zoological facilities, and generations of captive squirrel monkey populations (Saimiri sciureus). Variation in life-history traits occurs within each group analyzed. Those traits that vary the most include age at maturity, age at last reproduction, and fertility. Zoos with increasing population growth rates maintain earlier ages of maturity, later ages of last reproduction, high rates of juvenile and adult survival, and most importantly greater fertility, reflecting shorter inter-birth intervals. Using prospective analyses, juvenile and adult survivals were predicted to be demographic traits with the greatest effect on population growth. Surprisingly, and despite predictions, retrospective analyses revealed that fertility was the life-history characteristic trait that contributed the most to changes in population size.     

New evidence for pre-Columbian Muscovy Duck Cairina moschata from Ecuador

The archaeological record of the large lowland neotropical Muscovy Duck Cairina moschata , one of the few native animals known to have been domesticated by pre-Columbian peoples, is poorly known. Only a few specimens have been recovered in different cultural, temporal and depositional contexts from throughout the neotropics, and differentiating between wild and domesticated forms on the basis of osteological evidence has proved to be difficult. Archaeological specimens are mainly recorded from sites in western Panama and South America, including the western lowlands of Ecuador where two new locations are described and evaluated. It is suggested that at least some of these Ecuadorian specimens belong to domesticated forms, and that the cultural contexts in which they are found at archaeological sites suggest that prehispanic trade may have influenced their geographical distribution prior to the arrival of Europeans.     

Phylogeography of Diadophis punctatus: extensive lineage diversity and repeated patterns of historical demography in a trans-continental snake

Dynamic climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene had profound effects on the distributions of species across North America. Although the role of historical climate change on speciation remains controversial, the impact on genetic variation within species has been well documented. We examined mtDNA sequences from the cytochrome b gene (1117 bp) and a portion of the NADH-4 gene (659 bp) for 286 individuals of Diadophis punctatus to infer phylogeographic patterns and population structure and to examine historical demographic patterns in both glaciated and unglaciated regions of North America. We inferred 14 lineages that replace each other geographically across the United States. Several of these lineages appear to be confined to specific habitats (floodplains, grasslands, montane environments) and traverse previously identified genetic barriers for terrestrial vertebrates including the Mississippi and Apalachicola Rivers, the Appalachian Mountains, and the western continental divide. We also observed overlapping ranges between some haplotype groups and several instances of secondary contact associated with ecological transition zones in eastern South Carolina, southern Oklahoma and central California. Within the US, diversification began during the late Miocene and continued into the mid-Pleistocene, suggesting these lineages pre-dated the last glacial maximum. Coalescent and non-coalescent demographic analyses indicate that independent lineages currently occupying previously glaciated or unsuitable areas in eastern, central and western US underwent post-glacial population expansion likely from southern refugia during the late Pleistocene/early Holocene. Conversely, southern lineages display patterns consistent with long-term population stability. Such long-term persistence of genetic structure may be due to the competitive effects between lineages or ecosystem stability in more southern latitudes.     

Ecologically heterogeneous populations of the invasive ant Wasmannia auropunctata within its native and introduced ranges

Abstract 1. The biology of most invasive species in their native geographical areas remains largely unknown. Such studies are, however, crucial in shedding light on the ecological and evolutionary processes underlying biological invasions. 2. The present study focuses on the little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata, a species native to Central and South America that has been widely introduced and which has become invasive throughout the tropics. We characterise and compare several ecological traits of native populations in French Guiana with those in one of its introduced ranges, New Caledonia. 3. We found ecologically heterogeneous populations of W. auropunctata coexisting in the species’ native geographical area. First, we found populations restricted to naturally perturbed areas (particularly floodplains) within the primary forest, and absent from the surrounding forest areas. These populations were characterised by low nest and worker densities. Second, we found dominant populations in recent anthropogenic areas (e.g. secondary forest or forest edge along road) characterised by high nest and worker densities, and associated with low ant species richness. The local dominance of W. auropunctata in such areas can be due to the displacement of other species (cause) or the filling‐up of empty habitats unsuitable to other ants (effect). With respect to their demographic features and ant species richness, the populations of native anthropogenic habitats were to a large extent similar to the invasive populations introduced into remote areas. 4. The results point to the need for greater research efforts to better understand the ecological and demographic features of invasive species within their native ranges.     

The Biocultural Context of Very High Fertility among the Bekaa Bedouin

This research report explores some of the biocultural dimensions of maximum or near maximum fertility among Bedouin tribes in the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon. The Bedouin case substantiates that very high fertility (completed family size [CFS] greater than 8.0) is found among peripheral peoples in frontier situations generated by major political-economic shifts. While the Bedouin maintained high fertility (CFS > 6.5) for approximately sixty years (1899–1960), very high fertility—linked to greater historical reliance on agriculture—was of shorter duration (1934–60). Comparisons with other very high fertility populations indicate that, at the proximate level, maximum fertility is associated with early weaning, low rates of primary sterility, and high rates of marital stability. Results also point to low subadult mortality in Bedouin society. Low mortality is best attributed to the availability of modern medical care facilities and high-quality weaning foods.     

Early phases of a successful invasion: mitochondrial phylogeography of the common genet (Genetta genetta) within the Mediterranean Basin

The Mediterranean Basin, connected by cultural exchanges since prehistoric times, provides an outstanding framework to study species translocations. We address here the early phases of the successful invasion of the common genet (Genetta genetta), a small carnivoran supposedly introduced from Africa to Europe during historical times, by assessing mitochondrial nucleotide variability in 134 individuals from its native and invasive ranges. We identify four lineages within the native species range [northern Algeria, Peninsular Arabia, southern Africa and western Africa + Maghreb (including northern Algeria)], in contradiction with morphological taxonomy. We propose that the co-occurrence in Maghreb of two divergent lineages (autochthonous and western African) is due to secondary contact through intermittent permeability of the Saharan belt during the Plio-Pleistocene. Estimates of coalescence time and genetic diversity, in concert with other available evidences in the literature, indicate that the origin of European populations of common genets is in Maghreb, possibly restricted to northern Algeria. The autochthonous mitochondrial lineage of Maghreb was the only contributor to the European pool, suggesting that translocations were associated to a cultural constraint such as a local use of the species, which might have artificially excluded the western African lineage. Haplotype network and nested clade analysis (NCA) provide evidence for independent events of introductions throughout Spain (Andalucia, Cataluña, and the Balearic Isl.)—and, to a lesser extent, Portugal—acting as a ‘translocation hotspot’. Due to the reduced number of northern Algerian individuals belonging to the autochthonous mitochondrial lineage of Maghreb, it remains impossible to test hypotheses of historical translocations, although a main contribution of the Moors is likely. Our demographic analyses support a scenario of very recent introduction of a reduced number of individuals in Europe followed by rapid population expansion. We suggest that an exceptional combination of factors including multiple translocations, human-driven propagation across natural barriers, and natural processes of colonization allowed by a wide ecological tolerance, promoted the successful spread of the common genet into Europe.     

Phylogeographic insights into the invasion history and secondary spread of the signal crayfish in Japan

Successful invasion by nonindigenous species is often attributed to high propagule pressure, yet some foreign species become widespread despite showing reduced genetic variation due to founder effects. The signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) is one such example, where rapid spread across Japan in recent decades is believed to be the result of only three founding populations. To infer the history and explore the success of this remarkable crayfish invasion, we combined detailed phylogeographical and morphological analyses conducted in both the introduced and native ranges. We sequenced 16S mitochondrial DNA of signal crayfish from across the introduced range in Japan (537 samples, 20 sites) and the native range in western North America (700 samples, 50 sites). Because chela size is often related to aggressive behavior in crayfish, and hence, their invasion success, we also measured chela size of a subset of specimens in both introduced and native ranges. Genetic diversity of introduced signal crayfish populations was as high as that of the dominant phylogeographic group in the native range, suggesting high propagule pressure during invasion. More recently established crayfish populations in Japan that originated through secondary spread from one of the founding populations exhibit reduced genetic diversity relative to older populations, probably as a result of founder effects. However, these newer populations also show larger chela size, consistent with expectations of rapid adaptations or phenotypic responses during the invasion process. Introduced signal crayfish populations in Japan originate from multiple source populations from a wide geographic range in the native range of western North America. A combination of high genetic diversity, especially for older populations in the invasive range, and rapid adaptation to colonization, manifested as larger chela in recent invasions, likely contribute to invasion success of signal crayfish in Japan.     

Genomics of invasion: diversity and selection in introduced populations of monkeyflowers (Mimulus guttatus)

Global trade and travel is irreversibly changing the distribution of species around the world. Because introduced species experience drastic demographic events during colonization and often face novel environmental challenges from their native range, introduced populations may undergo rapid evolutionary change. Genomic studies provide the opportunity to investigate the extent to which demographic, historical and selective processes shape the genomic structure of introduced populations by analysing the signature that these processes leave on genomic variation. Here, we use next‐generation sequencing to compare genome‐wide relationships and patterns of diversity in native and introduced populations of the yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus). Genome resequencing data from 10 introduced populations from the United Kingdom (UK) and 12 native M. guttatus populations in North America (NA) demonstrated reduced neutral genetic diversity in the introduced range and showed that UK populations are derived from a geographic region around the North Pacific. A selective‐sweep analysis revealed site frequency changes consistent with selection on five of 14 chromosomes, with genes in these regions showing reduced silent site diversity. While the target of selection is unknown, genes associated with flowering time and biotic and abiotic stresses were located within the swept regions. The future identification of the specific source of origin of introduced UK populations will help determining whether the observed selective sweeps can be traced to unsampled native populations or occurred since dispersal across the Atlantic. Our study demonstrates the general potential of genome‐wide analyses to uncover a range of evolutionary processes affecting invasive populations.     

Heterogeneity within the native range: population genetic analyses of sympatric invasive and noninvasive clades of the freshwater invading copepod Eurytemora affinis

Invasive species are often composed of highly differentiated populations or sibling species distributed across their native ranges. This study analysed patterns of distribution and the evolutionary and demographic histories of populations within the native range of the copepod species complex Eurytemora affinis. Genetic structure was analysed for samples from 17 locations from both the invaded and native ranges in the St Lawrence River drainage basin, using 652 base pairs of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene. This study revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in genetic structure and habitat type in the native range, as well as a bias in the sources of invasive populations. Two genetically distinct clades showed a pattern of niche partitioning within the St Lawrence basin. The noninvasive North Atlantic clade primarily occupied the central portion of the St Lawrence Middle Estuary, whereas the invasive Atlantic clade was more prevalent along the margins, in the upstream reaches of the estuary and downstream salt marshes. Habitat partitioning and genetic subdivision was also present within the Atlantic clade. The freshwater populations were genetically more proximate to the Atlantic clade populations in the estuary than to those in the salt marsh, suggesting the estuary as the source of the invasive populations. The freshwater invading populations showed evidence of a modest population bottleneck. Populations from both clades showed genetic signatures of demographic population expansions that preceded the timing of the last glacial maximum, supporting the St Lawrence as a secondary contact zone between the two clades. Additional analyses on physiological and evolutionary properties of populations in the native range, along with analysis of the selection regime within native habitats, might yield insights into the evolutionary potential to invade.     

Narrating the First Dogs: Canine Agency in the First Contacts with Indigenous Peoples in the Brazilian Amazon

Narratives addressing the presence of European domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) in the encounters between Indians and non-Indians in the conquest of the Central and South American lowlands often portray those animals as terrible and bloodthirsty weapons. From the settlers’ perspective, dogs were formidable instruments in the subjugation of the native peoples they came across at various times over more than 500 years of American colonialization. But the indigenous narratives of these first contacts with dogs may exhibit distinct perspectives that view dogs not only as weapons, instruments, or tools of conquest but rather as agents or actors smoothing contact and establishing peaceful relations between Indians and non-Indians. This article explores the narratives of the first dogs encountered by two native populations in southwestern Brazilian Amazonia—the Puruborá and the Karitiana in the state of Rondônia—to demonstrate the canine agency behind the interethnic meetings in this region, where dogs were largely absent until the arrival of the Europeans and their descendants beginning in the sixteenth century. First contacts between Indians and non-Indians are complex inter-specific events, and may extend beyond only two participants (a group of non-Indians and a native people) to include at least three parties, since the actions and dispositions of dogs play a crucial role in the development of human interactions. Recollections of the first dogs encountered by the Puruborá and Karitiana point precisely toward recognizing the importance of the animal's presence as an actor, far beyond a mere instrument.     

Premarital fertility in Namibia: trends, factors and consequences

Premarital fertility, defined as fertility before first marriage, was found to be highly prevalent in Namibia. According to data from the 1992 and 2000 DHS surveys, the proportion of premarital births was 43% for all births, and 60% for the first birth. This seemed to be primarily due to a late mean age at first marriage (26.4 years) and low levels of contraception before first marriage. Data were analysed using a variety of demographic methods, including multiple decrement life table and multivariate logistic models. Major variations were found by ethno-linguistic groups: Herero and Nama/Damara had the highest levels of premarital fertility (above 60%); Ovambo and Lozi had intermediate levels of premarital fertility (around 40%); Kavongo and San appeared to have kept a more traditional behaviour of early marriage and low levels of premarital fertility (around 20%). The largest ethno-linguistic group, the Ovambo, were in a special situation, with fast increasing age at marriage and average level of premarital fertility. Whites and mixed races also differed, with Afrikaans-speaking groups having a behaviour closer to the average, whereas other Europeans had less premarital fertility despite an average age at marriage. Ethnic differences remained stable after controlling for various socioeconomic factors, such as urbanization, level of education, wealth, access to mass media, and religion. Results are discussed in light of the population dynamics and political history of Namibia in the 20th century.     

Invasive species of Heracleum in Europe: an insight into genetic relationships and invasion history

Several species of the genus Heracleum (Umbelliferae) were introduced into Europe from south-west Asia in the 19th century and are now widespread in many countries. At least three invasive taxa with unresolved relationships to one another are thought to occur in Europe: Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier, H. sosnowskyi Manden, and H. persicum Desf. ex Fischer. They are tall plants forming extensive stands with a high cover. To elucidate genetic relationships between the species, and gain insight into their invasion history, samples were collected from native ranges in Asia and invaded ranges of the three species in Europe and analysed using amplified fragment length polymorphism. Five other Heracleum species were also studied and in total, 189 samples from 72 populations were analysed. The results confirmed that there are three distinct tall Heracleum species invading in Europe. Within each of the three species, plants collected in the invaded range are genetically close to those from their native ranges. A close genetic relationship between the three invasive Heracleum species in Europe was also found. A high overall genetic variability detected in the invaded range suggests that the majority of invading populations were not affected by a genetic bottleneck and that rapid evolution, drift, or hybridization played a role in genetic structuring of invading populations. For H. mantegazzianum , genetic distance of populations in the native range significantly decreased with geographical distance, but not in the invaded range. It is likely that the current pattern of genetic diversity in Europe resulted from multiple introductions of all three species.     

Multivariate analysis of anthropometric data and classifications of British Columbian natives

Anthropometric data collected in native populations of British Columbia in the late 19th century by Franz Boas were analyzed by two multivariate techniques. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to test physical classificatory units devised by Boas and an ad hoc classification based on local cultural units. Both were found to have some empirical validity. Mahalanobis' D (Mahalanobis, '30) was computed between pairs of local groups, for both sexes. From these a matrix of differences was prepared and diagrams drawn to illustrate phenetic relationships among samples. By this means one cluster of groups, Interior B.C. peoples, could be distinguished and other local samples appeared distinctly different from each other. It was concluded that in the absence of genealogical data by which to identify local populations, local cultural units are preferable to more inclusive units for making empirical comparisons and classifications.     

Increased population growth rate in invasive polyploid Centaurea stoebe in a common garden

Biological invasions are inherently demographic processes, but trait differences between native and introduced genotypes are rarely linked to population growth rates. Native European Centaurea stoebe occurs as two cytotypes with different life histories (monocarpic diploids, polycarpic tetraploids); however, only tetraploids have been found in its introduced range in North America. In a common garden experiment using artificial populations, we compared the demographic performance of the three geo-cytotypes in the presence and absence of a specialist herbivore using periodic matrix models. We found no difference in population growth rate between the two European cytotypes and no significant effects of herbivory in all geo-cytotypes. However, there was a pronounced increase in population growth rate for North American compared with European tetraploids due to increased seed production and juvenile establishment. These results suggest that genetic drift or rapid evolution, rather than pre-adaptation through polyploidy may explain the invasion success of tetraploids.     

The Northwest Coast

Over the past several decades, archeological research on the Northwest Coast of North America has focused on the evolution of the coast's well‐known native societies. This research has two broad goals: building local and regional culture histories spanning the Holocene and answering processual questions about the evolution and persistence of cultural complexity among hunter‐gatherers. Cultural complexity includes relatively dense populations, partial to full sedentism, corporate groups, some degree of occupational specialization, permanent social inequality, and control of property. 1 - 3 Recently archeologists have begun to investigate whether the coast was a possible route for the peopling of North America. Presently, the earliest known sites on the coast date to about 9,000 BC, although it is likely that the initial occupation was earlier. Some aspects of cultural complexity had developed on the coast by 2,500 BC, with permanent inequality present by 900 BC, if not earlier. Central to this development were large corporate households, intensive food production and storage, and technological innovations including water‐tight wooden containers and large‐capacity boats. Patterns of complexity on the coast continued to change through the arrival of Europeans in the mid‐1700s.