秭归县防护林健康评价指标体系的建立及应用

以秭归县防护林为研究对象,通过传统生态学调查和相关室内分析,在林分水平上建立了包括林分结构、林分功能、生态环境和健康风险4个一级指标、20个二级指标的防护林健康评价指标体系。在综合相关林分健康评价的基础上,制定防护林健康评价指标优劣等级表,采用Delphi-AHP法设置指标权重,利用生态系统健康综合指数模型计算防护林健康指数,分析秭归县防护林健康状况。结果表明:秭归县防护林健康综合指数的范围在0.5000—0.9000之间,健康指数均值为0.6921,秭归县防护林整体处于亚健康状态;9种防护林类型健康状况排序为:阔叶混交林针阔混交林针叶混交林阔叶纯林马尾松纯林柏木纯林其它针叶纯林经济林灌木林,即是混交林纯林经济林灌木林;秭归县防护林健康指数具有空间变异性,在水平方向上,秭归县辖下乡、镇防护林健康指数从南向北有逐渐递减的趋势,在垂直方向上,防护林健康指数随海拔增高逐渐增大,海拔1000 m以上逐渐降低,健康指数表现出随海拔升高由小变大、又由大变小的变化特点。     

Three-Dimensional Framework of Vigor,Organization, and Resilience (VOR) for Assessing Rangeland Health: A Case Study from the Alpine Meadow of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,China

Rangeland health assessments play an important role in providing qualitative and quantitative data about ecosystem attributes and rangeland management. The objective of this study is to test the feasible of a modified model and visualize the health in a three-dimensional model. A modified Costanza model was employed, and eight indicators, including the biomass, biodiversity, and carrying capacity [associated with the vigor, organization, and resilience (VOR)] were applied. An entropy method was also developed to calculate the weight of each indicator, and a three-dimensional framework was applied to visualize the indicators and health index. The conceptual model was demonstrated using data from a case study on the alpine rangeland of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, one of the globally important grassland biomes being severely degraded by natural and human factors. The health indices of four grassland plots at different levels of degradation were calculated using a modified approach to measuring their VOR. The results indicated that the least disturbed plot was relatively healthy compared to the other plots. In addition, the health indices presented in the three-dimensional VOR framework decreased in a consistent manner across the four plots along the disturbance gradients. Such rangeland health assessments should be integrated with management efforts to insure their long-term sustainable use.     

A method for lake ecosystem health assessment: an Ecological Modeling Method (EMM) and its application

Ecosystem health is a newly proposed concept that sets new goals for environmental management. Its definition, indexing and assessment methods are still being perfected. An Ecological Modeling Method (EMM) for lake ecosystem health assessment is proposed in this paper. The EMM's procedures are: (1) to analyze the ecosystem structure of a lake in order to determine the structure and complexity of the lake's ecological model; (2) to develop a model having ecological health indicators, by designing a conceptual diagram, establishing model equations, estimating model parameters and being integrated with ecological indicators; (3) to compare the simulated and observed values of important state variables and process rates (i.e. model calibration) in order to evaluate the applicability of the model to lake ecosystem health assessment; (4) to calculate ecosystem health indicators based on the developed model; and (5) to assess lake ecosystem health according to the values of the ecosystem health indicators. The EMM was applied, as a case study, to the ecosystem health assessment of a eutrophic Chinese lake (Lake Chao) between April 1987 and March 1988. A relative order of health states from poor to good was determined as follows: August–October 1987 > April–May 1987 > June–July 1987 > November–December 1987 > January–March 1988. These results compared quite favourably with the actual current conditions at Lake Chao. The EMM method, therefore, was suitable in assessing lake ecosystem health at Lake Chao.     

基于压力-状态-响应和物元可拓模型的城市河流健康评价

城市河流作为人类活动和自然过程相互作用强烈的区域,承受着人类资源开发利用和污染物排放的压力,但近些年来随着对河流健康的重视,针对城市河流实施了大量的生态治理措施。综合考虑人类正负面影响对河流健康状态的影响,进行河流健康状态的评价,对于城市河流的修复效果检验和管理保护具有重要意义。以南京市鼓楼区典型城市河流西北护城河为研究区,根据河流周边土地利用类型、物理形态差异及城市管网分布将其划分为6个河段,考虑人类修复措施对河流健康水平的影响,构建了基于压力-状态-响应(Pressure-State-Response,PSR)模型的城市河流健康评价指标体系,采用物元可拓模型确定了河段健康等级,并根据各等级综合关联度之间的距离判断河流健康水平的发展趋势。结果表明:压力、状态以及响应准则层的权重分别为0.458、0.311、0.231,压力指标为影响城市河流健康水平的主要因素;西北护城河6个河段的健康水平表现出较强的空间异质性,河段A-F的健康等级分别为中等、健康、亚健康、中等、亚病态和病态,流经公园绿地的河段健康水平明显高于流经居民住宅区的河段,河段B、C、D的健康水平有进一步提升的趋势,而河段A、E、F的健康状态则有进一步恶化的趋势,需要进行重点关注。     

Health psychology: a new form of psychotherapy?

Psychotherapy in its traditional form is being challenged due to managed care pressures. Psychotherapy using the model of health psychology can adapt well in a managed care environment. Differences between traditional psychotherapy and the psychotherapeutic approach of health psychology are discussed in this article, with a focus on an overview of health psychology and its applications to primary care, and the concept of single-session therapy. A case example of a sample treatment emphasizing the model of brief health psychology treatment is illustrated.     

Predicting psychiatric admission rates.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the numbers of actual and expected psychiatric admissions for the residents of the district health authorities of England and to develop a model to indicate which social, health status, and service provision factors best explain the variation of the actual from the expected psychiatric admissions; to use this model to predict psychiatric admission for district health authorities as an aid to resource allocation. DESIGN--The actual psychiatric admission for district health authority residents were extracted from data of the 1986 Mental Health Enquiry. Expected admissions were calculated using the age, sex, and marital status structure of each district health authority and the national psychiatric admission rates related to age, sex, and marital status. Standardised psychiatric admission ratios were calculated as the ratios of the numbers of actual to expected psychiatric admissions. A wide range of social, health status, and service provision data were used as the explanatory variables in regression analyses to determine which combination of factors best explained the variation between districts of standardised psychiatric admission ratios. SETTING--The 168,652 psychiatric admissions recorded for the 1986 Mental Health Enquiry, after exclusion of mental handicap and psychogeriatric admissions. RESULTS--The actual number of psychiatric admissions varied from 79% above to 54% below the expected number of admissions from age, sex, and marital status for the districts of England. The most powerful variables to explain this variation were the rate of notification of drug misusers, standardised mortality ratios, and levels of illegitimacy in each district. A complex model was developed which could be used to predict district psychiatric admissions as an aid to resource allocation. A simpler model was also developed (which was less powerful than the more complex model) based on the underprivileged area score. One advantage of this model was that it could be used at the level of electoral wards as well as district health authorities.     

Application of a Hybrid Model for Predicting the Incidence of Tuberculosis in Hubei,China

Background

A prediction model for tuberculosis incidence is needed in China which may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning health interventions and allocating health resources.

Methods

The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was first constructed with the data of tuberculosis report rate in Hubei Province from Jan 2004 to Dec 2011.The data from Jan 2012 to Jun 2012 were used to validate the model. Then the generalized regression neural network (GRNN)-ARIMA combination model was established based on the constructed ARIMA model. Finally, the fitting and prediction accuracy of the two models was evaluated.

Results

A total of 465,960 cases were reported between Jan 2004 and Dec 2011 in Hubei Province. The report rate of tuberculosis was highest in 2005 (119.932 per 100,000 population) and lowest in 2010 (84.724 per 100,000 population). The time series of tuberculosis report rate show a gradual secular decline and a striking seasonal variation. The ARIMA (2, 1, 0) × (0, 1, 1)₁₂ model was selected from several plausible ARIMA models. The residual mean square error of the GRNN-ARIMA model and ARIMA model were 0.4467 and 0.6521 in training part, and 0.0958 and 0.1133 in validation part, respectively. The mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of the hybrid model were also less than the ARIMA model.

Discussion and Conclusions

The gradual decline in tuberculosis report rate may be attributed to the effect of intensive measures on tuberculosis. The striking seasonal variation may have resulted from several factors. We suppose that a delay in the surveillance system may also have contributed to the variation. According to the fitting and prediction accuracy, the hybrid model outperforms the traditional ARIMA model, which may facilitate the allocation of health resources in China.     

Focus: Zoonotic Disease: Health System Contact and Awareness of Zoonotic Diseases: Can it Serve as One Health Entry Point in the Urban Community of Ahmedabad, India?

One Health (OH) is emphasized globally to tackle the (re)emerging issues at the human-animal-ecosystem interface. However, the low awareness about zoonoses remain a challenge in global south, thus this study documented the health system contact and its effect on the awareness level of zoonoses in the urban community of Ahmedabad, India. A community-based household survey was conducted between October 2018 and July 2019. A total of 460 households (HHs) were surveyed from two zones and 23 wards of the city through cluster sampling. A structured, pilot-tested, and researcher-administered questionnaire in the vernacular language was used to collect the information on demographic details, socio-economic details, health-seeking behavior for both the humans and their animals, human and animal health system contact details and the participants’ awareness on selected zoonotic diseases based on the prioritization (rabies, brucellosis, swine flu, and bird flu). Out of 460 surveyed households, 69% of HHs and 59% of HHs had a health system contact to the human and animal health system respectively at the community level. There are multiple health workers active on the community level that could potentially serve as One Health liaisons. The investigation of the knowledge and awareness level of selected zoonotic diseases revealed that 58.5%, 47.6%, and 4.6% know about rabies, swine and/or bird flu, and brucellosis, respectively. The mixed-effect linear regression model indicates that there is no significant effect on the zoonotic disease awareness score with the human health system contact; however, a minimal positive effect with the animal health system contact was evident.     

Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil

Hansen’s disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44–45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control.     

A decision-tree model to detect post-calving diseases based on rumination,activity, milk yield,BW and voluntary visits to the milking robot

Early detection of post-calving health problems is critical for dairy operations. Separating sick cows from the herd is important, especially in robotic-milking dairy farms, where searching for a sick cow can disturb the other cows’ routine. The objectives of this study were to develop and apply a behaviour- and performance-based health-detection model to post-calving cows in a robotic-milking dairy farm, with the aim of detecting sick cows based on available commercial sensors. The study was conducted in an Israeli robotic-milking dairy farm with 250 Israeli-Holstein cows. All cows were equipped with rumination- and neck-activity sensors. Milk yield, visits to the milking robot and BW were recorded in the milking robot. A decision-tree model was developed on a calibration data set (historical data of the 10 months before the study) and was validated on the new data set. The decision model generated a probability of being sick for each cow. The model was applied once a week just before the veterinarian performed the weekly routine post-calving health check. The veterinarian’s diagnosis served as a binary reference for the model (healthy–sick). The overall accuracy of the model was 78%, with a specificity of 87% and a sensitivity of 69%, suggesting its practical value.     

工作属性与员工心理健康的关系

以Karasek的工作要求一控制模型为分析框架,通过对三家企业219名员工的问卷调查,探讨工作属性与员工心理健康的关系。研究结果显示,工作属性中的工作要求、工作控制均与心理健康显著相关;在控制了人口统计学变量之后,二者所解释的心理健康方差变异量为7%;工作要求和工作控制的交互效应也能够有效预测心理健康。这些结果提示:工作要求过高和工作控制缺乏都会导致员工的心理健康下降,员工的心理健康是工作要求和工作控制共同作用的结果。     

The within-host population dynamics of normal flora in the presence of an invading pathogen and antibiotic treatments

A mathematical competition model between normal flora and an invading pathogen was devised to allow analysis of bacterial infections in a host. The normal flora includes the various microorganisms that live on or within the host and act as a primary human immune system. Despite the important role of the normal flora, no mathematical study has been undertaken on models of the interaction between it and invading pathogens against a background of antibiotic treatment. To quantify key elements of bacterial behavior in a host, pairs of nonlinear differential equations were used to describe three categories of human health conditions, namely, healthy, latent infection, and active infection. In addition, a cutoff value was proposed to represent the minimum population level required for survival. The recovery of normal flora after antibiotic treatment was also included in the simulation because of its relation to human health recovery. The significance of each simulation parameter for the bacterial growth model was investigated. The devised simulation showed that bacterial proliferation rate, carrying capacity, initial population levels, and competition intensity have a significant effect on bacterial behavior. Consequently, a model was established to describe competition between normal flora and an infiltrating pathogen. Unlike other population models, the recovery process described by the devised model can describe the human health recovery mechanism.     

Remote sensing-based assessment of ecosystem health by optimizing vigor-organization-resilience model: A case study in Fuzhou City,China

Although remote sensing technology has been used to evaluate regional ecosystem health for a long time, it is still necessary to find a suitable index system to better evaluate ecosystem health. This study aims to improve the ecosystem health measurement ability of remote sensing technology. This research was carried out in Fuzhou under the traditional Vigor-Organization-Resilience (VOR) framework by optimizing and improving the construction method of sub-indexes. Sub-indexes were constructed using spectral index analysis, landscape theoretical ecology model and spatial measurement. Three remote sensing datasets were used (1996, 2008 and 2021) to carry out remote sensing diagnosis of regional ecosystem health in the Fuzhou administrative region. The main research findings and conclusions were as follows. A new comprehensive vigor index (CVI) was developed by the principal component analysis (PCA) based on the four indicators: fractional vegetation cover (FVC), global vegetation moisture index (GVMI), vegetation temperature condition index (VTCI), normalized differential build-up and bare soil index (NDBSI). A new organizational index was constructed based on the landscape index. Four types of indexes, namely landscape heterogeneity (LH), landscape connectivity (LC), the shape characteristics of forest patches (CS) and the connectivity of forest patches (CC) were used as the main factors for calculating the organizational index. A resilience index calculation framework was proposed based on the habitat quality model. The temporal and spatial characteristics of ecosystem health were evaluated and analyzed. The regional ecosystem health value of the whole region reduced gradually, with average values of 0.3521 (1996), 0.3445 (2008) and 0.3345 (2021) respectively. The average reduction rate was 0.0007 per year (1996–2021). The proposed remote sensing diagnosis method provides a complete framework for solving the problems of measuring the dynamic evolution process and characteristics of regional ecosystem health.     

基于属性理论的城市生态系统健康评价——以重庆市北部新区为例

确定了城市生态系统健康评价指标体系,提出了基于属性理论的城市生态系统健康评价模型及评价方法。以重庆北部新区为对象,运用该模型和方法对重庆北部新区生态系统健康现状进行了评价。结果表明:重庆北部新区城市生态系统现状属于一般健康类;基于评价结果识别健康限制因素,提出了生态系统健康调控措施。     

Non-fundholding in Nottingham: a vision of the future.

The 1991 health service reforms introduced the internal market and grave individual fundholding practices budgets with which they could attempt to secure preferential access to secondary health care for their patients. In the view of many doctors this undermined the principle of equity on which the NHS was founded. In Nottingham 200 non-fundholding general practitioners have joined together to act in liaison with their purchasing health authority. A committed representative group of general practitioners can collectively offer more time and knowledge to the contracting process while minimising the impact on clinical workload. As a large purchaser with low management costs the group has secured access to quality secondary care which is equitably available to all patients, preventing the development of a local two tier service. Nottingham''s non-fundholding model of commissioning is equitable and efficient.     

基于PSR模型的凌河口湿地生态系统健康评价与预警研究

凌河口湿地自然保护区是辽河流域主要的湿地保护区域。选取1995年、2000年、2005年、2009年和2014年TM影像作为研究的数据源,在3S技术平台支撑下构建了凌河口湿地空间信息数据库,获取了5个时期的景观格局指数。运用PSR数学模型,从压力、状态、响应3个方面选取10个评价指数,构建了凌河口湿地生态系统健康评价指标体系;采用AHP方法确定各项指标权重指数,应用逻辑斯蒂增长模型(Logistic growth model)对各个单项指标进行单因子评价,最后用计算CEI的综合评价法对5个时期湿地的生态健康情况进行综合评价。结果表明:1995年、2000年生态系统健康指数为0.642、0.617,凌河口湿地生态系统状态为比较健康;2005年、2009年和2014年生态健康指数为0.524、0.436和0.405,凌河口湿地生态系统处于亚健康的状态,应及时采取措施对该研究区进行生态系统保护。最后通过选取基于灰色系统理论的预测模型,构建凌河口湿地生态健康预测模型GM(1,1),对模型进行精度检验,发现灰色绝对关联度、后验差比值和小误差概率的精度检验等级均为一级,预测模型精度较为理想,因此采用GM(1,1)模型对凌河口湿地进行生态系统健康预测研究。预测结果表明:未来20年的湿地生态健康值分别为:0.357、0.321、0.291、0.267,研究区处于一般病态,并有向病态发展的趋势,生态健康面临愈来愈严重的威胁,对湿地进行保护和管理刻不容缓。     

Constructs of health and environment inform child obesity prevention in American Indian communities

Objective: Obesity prevention efforts have had limited success in American Indian (AI) populations. More effective prevention programs might be designed using insights into linkages between parental health beliefs, environmental constraints and healthy lifestyle choices. Methods and Procedures: Focus group sessions (n = 42 participants) were conducted to explore parental perspectives on children's health, diet and physical activity in three Wisconsin Tribal communities. Focus group questions were derived from preliminary interviews and observations on environmental barriers surrounding nutrition and physical activity. Results: Two broad thematic areas emerged from the focus groups: child health themes and environmental themes. Health themes included views of child health (emphasizing emotional health), views on parenting, and assessment of risks to child safety. Environmental (social and physical) themes included assessments of personal support networks, assessments of local facilities and programs, and values regarding household relationships. A provisional model of family behaviors related to child nutrition and physical activity was developed to better understand these themes and the potential tensions among them. Discussion: Understanding the unique cultural constructs of health and environment of AI communities can inform decision making in community‐level prevention research. The proposed model served as a useful starting point for designing healthy lifestyle interventions in these AI communities. This model may also be applicable to other minority communities.     

The genetic basis of alcoholism: multiple phenotypes,many genes,complex networks

Alcoholism is a significant public health problem. A picture of the genetic architecture underlying alcohol-related phenotypes is emerging from genome-wide association studies and work on genetically tractable model organisms.     

Two-dimensional grey cloud clustering-fuzzy entropy comprehensive assessment model for river health evaluation

Abstract

The river health evaluation is typically complex non-linear system with characteristics of fuzziness and randomness. However, conventional gray clustering method has difficult to effectively describe fuzzy and random information simultaneously. For this purpose, the cloud model and fuzzy entropy theory are introduced to establish 2D gray cloud clustering-fuzzy entropy comprehensive evaluation model. Different with health level models, it reflects river health situation from aspects of health level and corresponding water body complexity simultaneously. The health level is obtained by gray cloud whitened weight function (first sub-system) and fuzzy entropy represents complexity and fuzziness of river health situation (second sub-system). Moreover, multi-level river health evaluation indicator system is constructed with dividing indicators into common and distinct sections according to differences on river characteristics. Meanwhile, indicator weights are determined by renewed combined weighting method based on minimum deviation principle. Finally, we conduct health evaluation work for rivers in the Taihu basin. The evaluation health levels and fuzzy entropy for river A–G are H3 (0.4888, relatively significant); H2 (0.5476, relatively fuzzy); H2 (0.7526, fuzzy); H2 (0.4731, relatively significant); H2 (05138, relatively fuzzy); H3 (0.5822, relatively fuzzy), and H2 (0.4064, relatively significant), respectively. Results are consistent with current river health situation and more intuitive than compared models. Furthermore, evaluation results with four different weighting methods are compared to further demonstrate rationality of the weighting method and evaluation model. Hence, the model proposed is demonstrated to provide new insight for solving river health assessment problem effectively.