Climate‐change impacts on sandy‐beach biota: crossing a line in the sand

Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under‐represented in the literature on climate‐change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate‐change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate‐change impacts on sandy‐shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate‐change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate‐change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate‐change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.     

Salinity drives meiofaunal community structure dynamics across the Baltic ecosystem

Coastal benthic biodiversity is under increased pressure from climate change, eutrophication, hypoxia, and changes in salinity due to increase in river runoff. The Baltic Sea is a large brackish system characterized by steep environmental gradients that experiences all of the mentioned stressors. As such it provides an ideal model system for studying the impact of on‐going and future climate change on biodiversity and function of benthic ecosystems. Meiofauna (animals < 1 mm) are abundant in sediment and are still largely unexplored even though they are known to regulate organic matter degradation and nutrient cycling. In this study, benthic meiofaunal community structure was analysed along a salinity gradient in the Baltic Sea proper using high‐throughput sequencing. Our results demonstrate that areas with higher salinity have a higher biodiversity, and salinity is probably the main driver influencing meiofauna diversity and community composition. Furthermore, in the more diverse and saline environments a larger amount of nematode genera classified as predators prevailed, and meiofauna‐macrofauna associations were more prominent. These findings show that in the Baltic Sea, a decrease in salinity resulting from accelerated climate change will probably lead to decreased benthic biodiversity, and cause profound changes in benthic communities, with potential consequences for ecosystem stability, functions and services.     

Climate change‐induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change‐induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change‐induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water‐limited ecosystems.     

Impact of climatic change on bog ecosystems,with special reference to sub-oceanic raised bogs

The relation between climatic conditions and type of peatland ecosystem in the different climate zones in Europe is discussed. Special attention is given to the hydrology of raised bogs in the sub-oceanic region. Possible effects of climatic change on such raised bog systems are discussed in terms of changes in water discharge, ground-water table, rate of peat accumulation, and flora and vegetation. It is concluded that future changes, as suggested by the more widely accepted scenarios for climatic change, will seriously disrupt the ecological functioning of these peatland ecosystems, and it is doubtful whether at least the most southerly examples of sub-oceanic raised bogs will at all survive. Finally, suggestions are given for future research on the impact of climatic change on peatland ecosystems.     

Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low‐latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology

Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long‐lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed dispersal ecology, and demands a focused research effort.     

Climate warming could shift the timing of seed germination in alpine plants

Background and Aims

Despite the considerable number of studies on the impacts of climate change on alpine plants, there have been few attempts to investigate its effect on regeneration. Recruitment from seeds is a key event in the life-history of plants, affecting their spread and evolution and seasonal changes in climate will inevitably affect recruitment success. Here, an investigation was made of how climate change will affect the timing and the level of germination in eight alpine species of the glacier foreland.

Methods

Using a novel approach which considered the altitudinal variation of temperature as a surrogate for future climate scenarios, seeds were exposed to 12 different cycles of simulated seasonal temperatures in the laboratory, derived from measurements at the soil surface at the study site.

Key Results

Under present climatic conditions, germination occurred in spring, in all but one species, after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, autumn warming resulted in a significant increase in germination in all but two species. In contrast, seed germination was less sensitive to changes in spring and/or winter temperatures, which affected only three species.

Conclusions

Climate warming will lead to a shift from spring to autumn emergence but the extent of this change across species will be driven by seed dormancy status. Ungerminated seeds at the end of autumn will be exposed to shorter winter seasons and lower spring temperatures in a future, warmer climate, but these changes will only have a minor impact on germination. The extent to which climate change will be detrimental to regeneration from seed is less likely to be due to a significant negative effect on germination per se, but rather to seedling emergence in seasons that the species are not adapted to experience. Emergence in autumn could have major implications for species currently adapted to emerge in spring.     

Dendroclimatic analysis of Pinus peuce Griseb. at subalpine and treeline locations in Pirin Mountains,Bulgaria

Tree rings are a natural archive containing valuable information about environmental changes. Among the most sensitive ecosystems to such changes are high-mountain forests. Tree-ring series from such locations are exceptionally valuable both for climate reconstructions and for studying the effects of climate changes on forest ecosystems.The objective of our study is to present new long tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus peuce Griseb. from several locations at Pirin Mountains in southwestern Bulgaria, to explore their correlation with monthly temperatures and precipitation in the research area and to assess their potential for climate reconstruction.We built three long-term index chronologies for the radial increment of P. peuce from treeline locations in the study region. The longest chronology spans 675 years. We studied the impact of monthly air temperature and precipitation on its growth for the past 86 years using multiple regression analysis. Our analysis shows that P. peuce growth is positively influenced by high temperatures at the end of the previous growing season, especially at the two sites in Banderitsa valley until the middle of the 1970s, and negatively affected by cold winters. In some of the sample plots its growth was also positively correlated with high summer temperatures. However, even at these high altitudes in some of the locations on steep slopes P. peuce showed signs of negative impact of drought during the hottest summer months (especially in August).Our chronologies contribute to the paleoclimatic record for southwestern Bulgaria, which could provide baseline information about past climate variability and improve our understanding of current and future environmental changes.     

Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas

Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.     

Biodiversity enhancement induced by environmental noise

Recent research in ecology has concentrated on the effect of environmental changes on ecosystem structure and function. In most cases the focus has been on how ecosystems respond to changes in the mean values of environmental parameters, while the impact of changes in the variance has seldom been studied. However, changes in environmental variability may be important. For example, recent climate change predictions indicate that, in addition to trends in the mean values of climate variables, an increase in interannual variability is expected to occur in the near future. How will this increase in the variance of environmental parameters affect the dynamics of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems? Environmental fluctuations are usually believed to play a "destructive role" in ecosystem dynamics and to act as a source of disturbance, which perturbs the state of a system. However, noise is also known for its "constructive role", i.e., for the ability to create new ordered states in dynamical systems. Here we show that environmental noise may also enhance biodiversity. To this end we develop a conceptual model to show how random environmental fluctuations may favor biodiversity. Noise-induced biodiversity is observed for moderate levels of noise intensity, while it disappears with stronger environmental fluctuations, consistently with the notion underlying the "intermediate disturbance hypothesis".     

Projected climate change effects on Alberta's boreal forests imply future challenges for oil sands reclamation

Climate change will drive significant changes in vegetation cover and also impact efforts to restore ecosystems that have been disturbed by human activities. Bitumen mining in the Alberta oil sands region of western Canada requires reclamation to “equivalent land capability,” implying establishment of vegetation similar to undisturbed boreal ecosystems. However, there is consensus that this region will be exposed to relatively severe climate warming, causing increased occurrence of drought and wildfire, which threaten the persistence of both natural and reclaimed ecosystems. We used a landscape model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate plant responses to climate change and disturbances, forecasting changes to boreal forests within the oil sands region. Under the most severe climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) the model projected substantial decreases in forest biomass, with the future forest being dominated by drought‐ and fire‐tolerant species characteristic of parkland or prairie ecosystems. In contrast, less extreme climate forcing scenarios (RCPs 2.6 and 4.5) had relatively minor effects on forest composition and biomass with boreal conifers continuing to dominate the landscape. If the climate continues to change along a trajectory similar to those simulated by climate models for the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario, current reclamation goals to reestablish spruce‐dominated boreal forest will likely be difficult to achieve. Results from scenario modeling studies such as ours, and continued monitoring of change in the boreal forest, will help inform reclamation practices, which could include establishment of species better adapted to warmer and drier conditions.     

The physics and ecology of mining carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by ecosystems

Reforesting and managing ecosystems have been proposed as ways to mitigate global warming and offset anthropogenic carbon emissions. The intent of our opinion piece is to provide a perspective on how well plants and ecosystems sequester carbon. The ability of individual plants and ecosystems to mine carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, as defined by rates and cumulative amounts, is limited by laws of physics and ecological principles. Consequently, the rates and amount of net carbon uptake are slow and low compared to the rates and amounts of carbon dioxide we release by fossil fuels combustion. Managing ecosystems to sequester carbon can also cause unintended consequences to arise. In this paper, we articulate a series of key take‐home points. First, the potential amount of carbon an ecosystem can assimilate on an annual basis scales with absorbed sunlight, which varies with latitude, leaf area index and available water. Second, efforts to improve photosynthesis will come with the cost of more respiration. Third, the rates and amount of net carbon uptake are relatively slow and low, compared to the rates and amounts and rates of carbon dioxide we release by fossil fuels combustion. Fourth, huge amounts of land area for ecosystems will be needed to be an effective carbon sink to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. Fifth, the effectiveness of using this land as a carbon sink will depend on its ability to remain as a permanent carbon sink. Sixth, converting land to forests or wetlands may have unintended costs that warm the local climate, such as changing albedo, increasing surface roughness or releasing other greenhouse gases. We based our analysis on 1,163 site‐years of direct eddy covariance measurements of gross and net carbon fluxes from 155 sites across the globe.     

Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long‐lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid‐range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid‐range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east–west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure.     

A Synthesis of Climate and Vegetation Cover Effects on Biogeochemical Cycling in Shrub-Dominated Drylands

Semi-arid and arid ecosystems dominated by shrubs (“dry shrublands”) are an important component of the global C cycle, but impacts of climate change and elevated atmospheric CO₂ on biogeochemical cycling in these ecosystems have not been synthetically assessed. This study synthesizes data from manipulative studies and from studies contrasting ecosystem processes in different vegetation microsites (that is, shrub or herbaceous canopy versus intercanopy microsites), to assess how changes in climate and atmospheric CO₂ affect biogeochemical cycles by altering plant and microbial physiology and ecosystem structure. Further, we explore how ecosystem structure impacts on biogeochemical cycles differ across a climate gradient. We found that: (1) our ability to project ecological responses to changes in climate and atmospheric CO₂ is limited by a dearth of manipulative studies, and by a lack of measurements in those studies that can explain biogeochemical changes, (2) changes in ecosystem structure will impact biogeochemical cycling, with decreasing pools and fluxes of C and N if vegetation canopy microsites were to decline, and (3) differences in biogeochemical cycling between microsites are predictable with a simple aridity index (MAP/MAT), where the relative difference in pools and fluxes of C and N between vegetation canopy and intercanopy microsites is positively correlated with aridity. We conclude that if climate change alters ecosystem structure, it will strongly impact biogeochemical cycles, with increasing aridity leading to greater heterogeneity in biogeochemical cycling among microsites. Additional long-term manipulative experiments situated across dry shrublands are required to better predict climate change impacts on biogeochemical cycling in deserts.     

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.     

淡水鱼类功能生态学研究进展

在全球变化和人类活动的影响下,生物多样性正以前所未有的速度丧失,全球生物正经受第六次生物多样性危机。淡水生态系统是最脆弱的生态系统之一。淡水鱼类作为淡水生态系统的重要组成部分,承受着日趋严重的气候变化、栖息地退化、生物入侵和过度捕捞等压力,面临巨大的威胁。在此背景下,如何准确评估鱼类种群和群落对环境变化的响应,以及鱼类群落结构和功能的变化对生态系统功能的影响是淡水鱼类多样性和淡水生态系统保护的关键问题。近年来,淡水鱼类功能生态学的快速发展为解答这一问题提供了一个框架。系统地介绍了淡水鱼类功能生态学主要研究内容、方法、进展及其应用,并着重介绍了淡水鱼类功能特征及其与环境的关系、环境变化下的功能生态学响应研究。据此提出了淡水鱼类功能生态学未来的重点研究方向,指出了其在鱼类多样性保护和资源利用等领域的应用前景。     

Step back from the forest and step up to the Bonn Challenge: how a broad ecological perspective can promote successful landscape restoration

We currently face both an extinction and a biome crisis embedded in a changing climate. Many biodiverse ecosystems are being lost at far higher rates than they are being protected or ecologically restored. At the same time, natural climate solutions offer opportunities to restore biodiversity while mitigating climate change. The Bonn Challenge is a U.N. programme to restore biodiversity and mitigate climate change through restoration of the world's degraded landscapes. It provides an unprecedented chance for ecological restoration to become a linchpin tool for addressing many environmental issues. Unfortunately, the Forest and Landscape Restoration programme that underpins the Bonn Challenge, as its name suggests, remains focused on trees and forests, despite rising evidence that many non‐forest ecosystems also offer strong restoration potential for biodiversity and climate mitigation. We see a need for restoration to step back to be more inclusive of different ecosystem types and to step up to provide integrated scientific knowledge to inform large‐scale restoration. Stepping back and up will require assessments of where to restore what species, with recognition that in many landscapes multiple habitat types should be restored. In the process, trade‐offs in the delivery of different ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, biodiversity, water, albedo, livestock forage) should be clearly addressed. We recommend that biodiversity safeguards be included in policy and implemented in practice, to avoid undermining the biophysical relationships that provide ecosystem resilience to climate change. For ecological restoration to contribute to international policy goals will require integrated large‐scale science that works across biome boundaries.     

Antarctic nematode communities: observed and predicted responses to climate change

The rapidly changing climate in Antarctica is impacting the ecosystems. Since records began, climate changes have varied considerably throughout Antarctica with both positive and negative trends in temperatures and precipitation observed locally. However, over the course of this century a more directional increase in both temperature and precipitation is expected to occur throughout Antarctica. The soil communities of Antarctica are considered simple with most organisms existing at the edge of their physiological capabilities. Therefore, Antarctic soil communities are expected to be particularly sensitive to climate changes. However, a review of the current literature reveals that studies investigating the impact of climate change on soil communities, and in particular nematode communities, in Antarctica are very limited. Of the few studies focusing on Antarctic nematode communities, long-term monitoring has shown that nematode communities respond to changes in local climate trends as well as extreme (or pulse) events. These results are supported by in situ experiments, which show that nematode communities respond to both temperature and soil moisture manipulations. We conclude that the predicted climate changes are likely to exert a strong influence on nematode communities throughout Antarctica and will generally lead to increasing abundance, species richness, and food web complexity, although the opposite may occur locally. The degree to which local communities respond will depend on current conditions, i.e., average temperatures, soil moisture availability, vegetation or more importantly the lack thereof, and the local species pool in combination with the potential for new species to colonize.     

Climate change impacts on biodiversity in Switzerland: A review

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and considers some perspectives for the future at the national level.The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution towards mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends.These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.     

Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs

Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life‐history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the ‘no effective mitigation’ representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.     

Predictive systems ecology

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.