Using ecological niche modelling to evaluate niche stability in deep time

Aim To investigate relative niche stability in species responses to various types of environmental pressure (biotic and abiotic) on geological time‐scales using the fossil record. Location The case study focuses on Late Ordovician articulate brachiopods of the Cincinnati Arch in eastern North America. Methods Species niches were modelled for a suite of fossil brachiopod species based on five environmental variables inferred from sedimentary parameters using GARP and Maxent . Niche stability was assessed by comparison of (1) the degree of overlap of species distribution models developed for a time‐slice and those generated by projecting niche models of the previous time‐slice onto environmental layers of a second time‐slice using GARP and Maxent , (2) Schoener’s D statistic, and (3) the similarity of the contribution of each environmental parameter within Maxent niche models between adjacent time‐slices. Results Late Ordovician brachiopod species conserved their niches with high fidelity during intervals of gradual environmental change but responded to inter‐basinal species invasions through niche evolution. Both native and invasive species exhibited similar levels of niche evolution in the invasion and post‐invasion intervals. Niche evolution was related mostly to decreased variance within the former ecological niche parameters rather than to shifts to new ecospace. Main conclusions Although the species examined exhibited morphological stasis during the study interval, high levels of niche conservatism were observed only during intervals of gradual environmental change. Rapid environmental change, notably inter‐basinal species invasions, resulted in high levels of niche evolution among the focal taxa. Both native and invasive species responded with similar levels of niche evolution during the invasion interval and subsequent environmental reorganization. The assumption of complete niche conservatism frequently employed in ecological niche modelling (ENM) analyses to forecast or hindcast species geographical distributions is more likely to be accurate for climate change studies than for invasive species analyses over geological time‐scales.     

Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.     

The geography and ecology of plant speciation: range overlap and niche divergence in sister species

A goal of evolutionary biology is to understand the roles of geography and ecology in speciation. The recent shared ancestry of sister species can leave a major imprint on their geographical and ecological attributes, possibly revealing processes involved in speciation. We examined how ecological similarity, range overlap and range asymmetry are related to time since divergence of 71 sister species pairs in the California Floristic Province (CFP). We found that plants exhibit strikingly different age-range correlation patterns from those found for animals; the latter broadly support allopatric speciation as the primary mode of speciation. By contrast, plant sisters in the CFP were sympatric in 80% of cases and range sizes of sisters differed by a mean of 10-fold. Range overlap and range asymmetry were greatest in younger sisters. These results suggest that speciation mechanisms broadly grouped under ‘budding’ speciation, in which a larger ranged progenitor gives rise to a smaller ranged derivative species, are probably common. The ecological and reproductive similarity of sisters was significantly greater than that of sister–non-sister congeners for every trait assessed. However, shifts in at least one trait were present in 93% of the sister pairs; habitat and soil shifts were especially common. Ecological divergence did not increase with range overlap contrary to expectations under character displacement in sympatry. Our results suggest that vicariant speciation is more ubiquitous in animals than plants, perhaps owing to the sensitivity of plants to fine-scale environmental heterogeneity. Despite high levels of range overlap, ecological shifts in the process of budding speciation may result in low rates of fine-scale spatial co-occurrence. These results have implications for ecological studies of trait evolution and community assembly; despite high levels of sympatry, sister taxa and potentially other close relatives, may be missing from local communities.     

Lineage diversification in a widespread species: roles for niche divergence and conservatism in the common kingsnake, Lampropeltis getula

Niche conservatism and niche divergence are both important ecological mechanisms associated with promoting allopatric speciation across geographical barriers. However, the potential for variable responses in widely distributed organisms has not been fully investigated. For allopatric sister lineages, three patterns for the interaction of ecological niche preference and geographical barriers are possible: (i) niche conservatism at a physical barrier; (ii) niche divergence at a physical barrier; and (iii) niche divergence in the absence of a physical barrier. We test for the presence of these patterns in a transcontinentally distributed snake species, the common kingsnake ( Lampropeltis getula ), to determine the relative frequency of niche conservatism or divergence in a single species complex inhabiting multiple distinct ecoregions. We infer the phylogeographic structure of the kingsnake using a range-wide data set sampled for the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b . We use coalescent simulation methods to test for the presence of structured lineage formation vs. fragmentation of a widespread ancestor. Finally, we use statistical techniques for creating and evaluating ecological niche models to test for conservatism of ecological niche preferences. Significant geographical structure is present in the kingsnake, for which coalescent tests indicate structured population division. Surprisingly, we find evidence for all three patterns of conservatism and divergence. This suggests that ecological niche preferences may be labile on recent phylogenetic timescales, and that lineage formation in widespread species can result from an interaction between inertial tendencies of niche conservatism and natural selection on populations in ecologically divergent habitats.     

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant

A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.     

Social learning in birds and its role in shaping a foraging niche

We briefly review the literature on social learning in birds, concluding that strong evidence exists mainly for predator recognition, song, mate choice and foraging. The mechanism of local enhancement may be more important than imitation for birds learning to forage, but the former mechanism may be sufficient for faithful transmission depending on the ecological circumstances. To date, most insights have been gained from birds in captivity. We present a study of social learning of foraging in two passerine birds in the wild, where we cross-fostered eggs between nests of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus and great tits, Parus major. Early learning causes a shift in the foraging sites used by the tits in the direction of the foster species. The shift in foraging niches was consistent across seasons, as showed by an analysis of prey items, and the effect lasted for life. The fact that young birds learn from their foster parents, and use this experience later when subsequently feeding their own offspring, suggests that foraging behaviour can be culturally transmitted over generations in the wild. It may therefore have both ecological and evolutionary consequences, some of which are discussed.     

Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges

Species distribution models (SDMs) use spatial environmental data to make inferences on species' range limits and habitat suitability. Conceptually, these models aim to determine and map components of a species' ecological niche through space and time, and they have become important tools in pure and applied ecology and evolutionary biology. Most approaches are correlative in that they statistically link spatial data to species distribution records. An alternative strategy is to explicitly incorporate the mechanistic links between the functional traits of organisms and their environments into SDMs. Here, we review how the principles of biophysical ecology can be used to link spatial data to the physiological responses and constraints of organisms. This provides a mechanistic view of the fundamental niche which can then be mapped to the landscape to infer range constraints. We show how physiologically based SDMs can be developed for different organisms in different environmental contexts. Mechanistic SDMs have different strengths and weaknesses to correlative approaches, and there are many exciting and unexplored prospects for integrating the two approaches. As physiological knowledge becomes better integrated into SDMs, we will make more robust predictions of range shifts in novel or non-equilibrium contexts such as invasions, translocations, climate change and evolutionary shifts.     

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this "realistic" dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species' range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species.     

Patterns of differential introgression in a salamander hybrid zone: inferences from genetic data and ecological niche modelling

Hybrid zones have yielded considerable insight into many evolutionary processes, including speciation and the maintenance of species boundaries. Presented here are analyses from a hybrid zone that occurs among three salamanders –Plethodon jordani, Plethodon metcalfi and Plethodon teyahalee– from the southern Appalachian Mountains. Using a novel statistical approach for analysis of non‐clinal, multispecies hybrid zones, we examined spatial patterns of variation at four markers: single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in the mtDNA ND2 gene and the nuclear DNA ILF3 gene, and the morphological markers of red cheek pigmentation and white flecks. Concordance of the ILF3 marker and both morphological markers across four transects is observed. In three of the four transects, however, the pattern of mtDNA is discordant from all other markers, with a higher representation of P. metcalfi mtDNA in the northern and lower elevation localities than is expected given the ILF3 marker and morphology. To explore whether climate plays a role in the position of the hybrid zone, we created ecological niche models for P. jordani and P. metcalfi. Modelling results suggest that hybrid zone position is not determined by steep gradients in climatic suitability for either species. Instead, the hybrid zone lies in a climatically homogenous region that is broadly suitable for both P. jordani and P. metcalfi. We discuss various selective (natural selection associated with climate) and behavioural processes (sex‐biased dispersal, asymmetric reproductive isolation) that might explain the discordance in the extent to which mtDNA and nuclear DNA and colour‐pattern traits have moved across this hybrid zone.     

Defining and measuring ecological specialization

1.  Ecological specialization is one of the main concepts in ecology and conservation. However, this concept has become highly context-dependent and is now obscured by the great variability of existing definitions and methods used to characterize ecological specialization.
2.  In this study, we clarify this concept by reviewing the strengths and limitations of different approaches commonly used to define and measure ecological specialization. We first show that ecological specialization can either be considered as reflecting species' requirements or species' impacts. We then explain how specialization depends on species-specific characteristics and on local and contingent environmental constraints. We further show why and how ecological specialization should be scaled across spatial and temporal scales, and from individuals to communities.
3.  We then illustrate how this review can be used as a practical toolbox to classify widely used metrics of ecological specialization in applied ecology, depending on the question being addressed, the method used, and the data available.
4.   Synthesis and applications . Clarifying ecological specialization is useful to make explicit connections between several fields of ecology using the niche concept. Defining this concept and its practical metrics is also a crucial step to better formulate predictions of scientific interest in ecology and conservation. Finally, understanding the different facets of ecological specialization should facilitate to investigate the causes and consequences of biotic homogenization and to derive relevant indicators of biodiversity responses to land-use changes.     

Biogeography of the Amazon molly: ecological niche and range limits of an asexual hybrid species

Aim To understand the relative contributions of environmental factors, dispersal limitations and the presence of sperm donors in determining the distribution of the Amazon molly (Poecilia formosa), a sperm‐dependent unisexual fish species of hybrid origin. To explore niche similarities and/or differences between the hybrid and parental species. To evaluate whether large‐scale abiotic factors can explain a successful introduction of both P. formosa and Poecilia latipinna. Location South‐east United States, Mexico and Central America. Methods We used abiotic variables in ecological niche modelling (ENM) to identify regions with suitable conditions for the presence of the Amazon molly and its two parental species (P. latipinna and Poecilia mexicana). We also used a recently developed metric to calculate the degree of niche overlap between the hybrid and its parental species. Results ENM produced highly significant models [all area under the curve (AUC) > 0.99 for the three species]. Annual mean temperature and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the variables that best explained the distribution of the Amazon molly. With the exception of south Florida, few areas beyond the known distribution of the species were predicted to have suitable environmental conditions. The hybrid species niche overlaps partially with the parental species. However, given the available data, it is neither more similar nor more different than expected by chance. Main conclusions Two different processes are acting to limit the distribution of P. formosa. At the northern limit, although a sperm donor species is present further north, suitable environmental conditions are absent from nearby locations. At the southern limit, a sperm donor species is present and areas with good environmental conditions are present at nearby locations, suggesting that dispersal ability is the limiting factor. We found that the hybrid species overlaps in a similar way with both parental species while still having its own niche identity. This result may be explained by the fact that hybrid species inherit characteristics of two ecologically divergent species, which can result in intermediate or even transgressive phenotypes. These results support recent work on the role of hybridization in diversification.     

Evidence for large-scale effects of competition: niche displacement in Canada lynx and bobcat

Determining the patterns, causes and consequences of character displacement is central to our understanding of competition in ecological communities. However, the majority of competition research has occurred over small spatial extents or focused on fine-scale differences in morphology or behaviour. The effects of competition on broad-scale distribution and niche characteristics of species remain poorly understood but critically important. Using range-wide species distribution models, we evaluated whether Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) or bobcat (Lynx rufus) were displaced in regions of sympatry. Consistent with our prediction, we found that lynx niches were less similar to those of bobcat in areas of sympatry versus allopatry, with a stronger reliance on snow cover driving lynx niche divergence in the sympatric zone. By contrast, bobcat increased niche breadth in zones of sympatry, and bobcat niches were equally similar to those of lynx in zones of sympatry and allopatry. These findings suggest that competitively disadvantaged species avoid competition at large scales by restricting their niche to highly suitable conditions, while superior competitors expand the diversity of environments used. Our results indicate that competition can manifest within climatic niche space across species’ ranges, highlighting the importance of biotic interactions occurring at large spatial scales on niche dynamics.