A new method for estimating age-at-death from the first rib

A new method for estimating adult age-at-death from the first rib was developed as a modification of the Kunos et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 110 (1999) 303-323) method. Data were collected on three aspects of the first rib (costal face, rib head, and tubercle facet) for 470 known-age males of Balkan ancestry collected as evidence during investigations conducted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Ages-at-death range from 12 to 90 years (mean of 47.7 years). Several variables were extracted from the original study utilizing all three skeletal aspects of the first rib. This list was modified to 11 variables as preliminary tests on seriations of the samples were undertaken. A cumulative probit model with age measured on a log scale was used to calculate the mean and standard deviation of the ages-of-transition for each component. Multivariate analysis of the three components was also performed. The lowest correlation (r = 0.079, controlling for age) was between the geometric shape of the costal face and the surface texture of the tubercle facet. Assuming a correlation of zero, these two traits were used to calculate the highest posterior density regions for estimating individual ages-at-death. Age-at-death estimates generated from 50 and 95% posterior density regions indicate that this method captures age-related change reaching the ninth decade. The Bayesian statistical approach used here produced a valuable and promising new method for estimating age-at-death. Additional research is necessary to determine if these highest posterior density regions produce results highly correlated with age in other samples and its applicability to females.     

过渡分析在先秦时期人骨年龄估计中的应用

成人骨骼年龄的估计向来是存在许多困难和争议的。通过对其发展历程的回顾可知,尽管早已研发出了相对较可靠的用耻骨联合、髂骨耳状关节面等特征部位的形态估计年龄的方法,但鉴于“年龄模拟效应”的存在,这些方法都不可避免地会使估计的结果出现偏差。建立在贝叶斯方法和最大似然估计的基础上,Jesper Boldsen等研发出的“过渡分析”能够有效地消除上述不良影响。借助ADBOU软件,通过对山西先秦时期人骨样本进行过渡分析的实践,发现传统的形态观察法和过渡分析法会造成估计得到的死亡年龄结构出现差异。由于年龄估计结果的差异会对古人口学研究造成显著影响,因此建议在借鉴过渡分析的基础上,加强对年龄估计方法的改进。     

An investigation of age‐related changes at the acetabulum in 18th–19th century ad adult skeletons from Christ Church Spitalfields,London

The age‐markers described at the adult acetabulum by Rissech et al. (J Forensic Sci 51 (2006) 213–229) were scored in the Spitalfields collection of skeletons of documented age and sex (N = 161). The purpose of the work was as a contribution to the evaluation of the general utility of these markers for estimating age at death. To this end, their relationship both with age, and with some other factors, was investigated. The latter comprised sex, general tendency toward bone formation in periarticular soft tissue (as measured by the occurrence of diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis), and occupation (as documented for some of the males). Of the seven Rissech et al. variables, only four were found to show a statistically significant relationship with age. The correlation between a composite score derived from a linear combination of these four variables, and age was similar to or greater than correlations between age and composite scores based on other age indicators reported in the literature for Spitalfields. Male acetabula aged at a greater rate than those of females. There was no relationship with the occurrence of DISH, but for occupation, those in nonmanual professions showed greater acetabular scores‐for‐age than those in manual trades. Am J Phys Anthropol 2012. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

An elusive paleodemography? A comparison of two methods for estimating the adult age distribution of deaths at late Classic Copan,Honduras

Comparison of different adult age estimation methods on the same skeletal sample with unknown ages could forward paleodemographic inference, while researchers sort out various controversies. The original aging method for the auricular surface (Lovejoy et al., 1985a) assigned an age estimation based on several separate characteristics. Researchers have found this original method hard to apply. It is usually forgotten that before assigning an age, there was a seriation, an ordering of all available individuals from youngest to oldest. Thus, age estimation reflected the place of an individual within its sample. A recent article (Buckberry and Chamberlain, 2002) proposed a revised method that scores theses various characteristics into age stages, which can then be used with a Bayesian method to estimate an adult age distribution for the sample. Both methods were applied to the adult auricular surfaces of a Pre-Columbian Maya skeletal population from Copan, Honduras and resulted in age distributions with significant numbers of older adults. However, contrary to the usual paleodemographic distribution, one Bayesian estimation based on uniform prior probabilities yielded a population with 57% of the ages at death over 65, while another based on a high mortality life table still had 12% of the individuals aged over 75 years. The seriation method yielded an age distribution more similar to that known from preindustrial historical situations, without excessive longevity of adults. Paleodemography must still wrestle with its elusive goal of accurate adult age estimation from skeletons, a necessary base for demographic study of past populations.     

Test of revised method of age estimation from the auricular surface of the ilium

The objective of this paper is to test a revised method of age estimation based on the morphology of the auricular surface recently proposed by Buckberry and Chamberlain ([2002] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 119:231-239). The study sample consists of 309 individuals of known sex, age, and race from the Terry and Huntington Collections. Auricular surfaces were scored using the revised technique to determine whether it is equally applicable to both sexes as well as blacks and whites. The auricular surfaces of the same individuals were also scored using the original method of auricular surface scoring developed by Lovejoy et al. ([1985] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 68:15-28) to determine whether the revised technique is comparable to the original method in terms of accuracy. Results show that the revised method is equally applicable to males and females as well as blacks and whites. The revised method is less accurate than the original method for individuals between 20-49 years of age, but more accurate for individuals between 50-69 years of age.     

Auricular surface aging: Worse than expected? A test of the revised method on a documented historic skeletal assemblage

This study presents results and recommendations arising from a blind test of the revised age estimation method for the auricular surface as proposed by Buckberry and Chamberlain ([2002] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 119:321-329). Auricular surfaces of 167 individuals from St. Bride's, London, a documented skeletal assemblage spanning the late 17th to early 19th century, were analyzed for the following traits: transverse organization, surface texture appearance, macroporosity, microporosity, and morphological changes to the apex. Composite scores of trait expressions were found to generally correlate with age and to show a positive association with known chronological age (P < 0.01). However, when composite scores were combined to define auricular surface phases, which ultimately assign age estimations, only three distinct developmental stages, compared with seven suggested by Buckberry and Chamberlain ([2002] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 119:321-329), could be identified and statistically supported, all showing a considerable degree of individual variation in age. The most well-defined stage in the St. Bride's assemblage was the new stage III, where the majority of individuals were older than 60 years, whereas middle-aged adults displayed a large variation in composite scores. These results provide little hope for a promising application of age-at-death estimation of auricular surface morphology traits with higher resolution, but rather suggest indications of broad stages of life.     

Age estimation from the auricular surface of the ilium: a revised method

A revised method for estimating adult age at death using the auricular surface of the ilium has been developed. It is based on the existing auricular surface aging method of Lovejoy et al. ([1985] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 68:15-28), but the revised technique is easier to apply, and has low levels of inter- and intraobserver error. The new method records age-related stages for different features of the auricular surface, which are then combined to provide a composite score from which an estimate of age at death is obtained. Blind tests of the method were carried out on a known-age skeletal collection from Christ Church, Spitalfields, London. These tests showed that the dispersion of age at death for a given morphological stage was large, particularly after the first decade of adult life. Statistical analysis showed that the age-related changes in auricular surface are not significantly different for males and females. The scores from the revised method have a slightly higher correlation with age than do the Suchey-Brooks pubic symphysis stages. Considering the higher survival rates of the auricular surface compared with the pubic symphysis, this method promises to be useful for biological anthropology and forensic science.     

Brief communication: Testing the usefulness of the basilar suture as a means to determine age in great ape skeletons

A fused/closed basilar suture is usually treated as an indication of old age in great apes. A sample, drawn from a variety of sources, of known-aged captive great ape skeletons was analyzed to test the usefulness of using the basilar suture to categorize adult skeletons as either "adult" or "old adult". The state of closure of the basilar suture was examined in 30 chimpanzees, 19 gorillas, and 15 orangutans, all of known age. The results show that the basilar suture demonstrates a high level of uniformity in rate of closure and is closed at an early age in virtually all known-aged individuals. Thus, an old adult category most likely includes individuals who are, in fact, relatively young. This indicates that using the basilar suture as a means to classify individual skeletons as adult or old adult is very imprecise. The homogenous nature of basilar suture closure appears to prevent meaningful application of suture status for categorizing adult ape skeletons by age groups.     

Linkage studies in familial Alzheimer disease: Evidence for chromosome 19 linkage

A genetic component in the etiology of Alzheimer disease (AD) has been supported by indirect evidence for several years, with autosomal dominant inheritance with age-dependent penetrance being suggested to explain the familial aggregation of affecteds. St. George Hyslop et al. reported linkage of familial AD (FAD) in four early-onset families (mean age at onset [M] less than 50 years). Subsequent studies have been inconsistent in their results; Goate et al. also reported positive lod scores. However, both Pericak-Vance et al.'s study of a series of mainly late-onset FAD families (M greater than 60 years) and Schellenberg et al.'s study failed to confirm linkage to chromosome 21 (CH21). These various studies suggest the possibility of genetic heterogeneity, with some families linked to CH21 and others unlocalized. Recently, St. George Hyslop et al. extended their analysis to include additional families. The extended analyses supported their earlier finding of linkage to CH21, while showing strong evidence of heterogeneity between early-onset (M less than 65 years) and late-onset (M greater than 60 years) FAD families. Because our families did not show linkage to CH21, we undertook a genomic search for an additional locus for FAD. Because of both the confounding factor of late age at onset of FAD and the lack of clear evidence of Mendelian transmission in some of our families, we employed the affected-pedigree-member (APM) method of linkage analysis as an initial screen for possible linkage. Using this method, we identified two regions suggesting linkage: the proximal long arm of chromosome 19 (CH19) and the CH21 region of FAD linkage reported by St. George Hyslop et al. Application of standard likelihood (LOD score) analysis to these data support the possibility of an FAD gene locate on CH19, particularly in the late-onset FAD families. These data further suggest genetic heterogeneity and delineate this region of CH19 as an area needing additional investigation in FAD.     

Estimating the distribution of probable age-at-death from dental remains of immature human fossils

In two historic longitudinal growth studies, Moorrees et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 21 (1963) 99-108; J Dent Res 42 (1963) 1490-1502) presented the "mean attainment age" for stages of tooth development for 10 permanent tooth types and three deciduous tooth types. These findings were presented graphically to assess the rate of tooth formation in living children and to age immature skeletal remains. Despite being widely cited, these graphical data are difficult to implement because there are no accompanying numerical values for the parameters underlying the growth data. This analysis generates numerical parameters from the data reported by Moorrees et al. by digitizing 358 points from these tooth formation graphs using DataThief III, version 1.5. Following the original methods, the digitized points for each age transition were conception-corrected and converted to the logarithmic scale to determine a median attainment age for each dental formation stage. These values are subsequently used to estimate age-at-death distributions for immature individuals using a single tooth or multiple teeth, including estimates for 41 immature early modern humans and 25 immature Neandertals. Within-tooth variance is calculated for each age estimate based on a single tooth, and a between-tooth component of variance is calculated for age estimates based on two or more teeth to account for the increase in precision that comes from using additional teeth. Finally, we calculate the relative probability of observing a particular dental formation sequence given known-age reference information and demonstrate its value in estimating age for immature fossil specimens.     

Estimating age of mature adults from the degeneration of the sternal end of the clavicle

The sternal end of the clavicle has been illustrated to be useful in aging young adults, however, no studies have investigated what age‐related changes occur to the sternal end post epiphyseal fusion. In this study, three morphological features (i.e., surface topography, porosity, and osteophyte formation) were examined and scored using 564 clavicles of individuals of European ancestry (n = 318 males; n = 246 females), with known ages of 40+ years, from four documented skeletal collections: Hamann‐Todd, Pretoria, St. Bride's, and Coimbra. An ordinal scoring method was developed for each of the three traits. Surface topography showed the strongest correlation with age, and composite scores (formed by summing the three separate trait scores) indicated progressive degeneration of the surface with increasing chronological age. Linear regression analyses were performed on the trait scores to produce pooled‐sample age estimation equations. Blind tests of the composite score method and regression formulae on 56 individuals, aged 40+ years, from Christ Church Spitalfields, suggest accuracies of 96.4% for both methods. These preliminary results display the first evidence of the utility of the sternal end of the clavicle in aging older adult individuals. However, in the current format, these criteria should only be applied to individuals already identified as over 40 years in order to refine the age ranges used for advanced age. These findings do suggest the sternal end of the clavicle has potential to aid age estimates beyond the traditional “mature adult” age category (i.e., 46+ years), and provides several suggestions for future research. Am J Phys Anthropol 156:203–214, 2015. © 2014 The Authors American Journal of Physical Anthropology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Effect of obesity on the reliability of age-at-death indicators of the pelvis

During medicolegal investigations, forensic anthropologists commonly use morphological changes in the auricular surface of the ilium and the symphyseal face of the pubis to estimate age. However, obesity may impact the reliability of age estimations based on pelvic joints. Over the past several decades, the prevalence of obesity has dramatically increased in the United States (US). Since the rate of progression through age-related stages of weight-bearing joints may be influenced by excessive body mass, it is important that anthropologists understand how obesity affects age-related morphological changes in the skeleton. This study investigates the effects of obesity on the validity of the estimated age-at-death based on the Buckberry–Chamberlin and Suchey–Brooks methods by comparing US adults considered normal BMI (BMI 18.5–24.9) and obese (BMI ≥ 30). The obese group exhibits overall greater bias (overestimation of age) and inaccuracy, less precision, and lower correlations between estimated and known age than the normal BMI group using both methods, although differences in the pubic symphysis are not statistically significant. For the auricular surface the age of transition from one phase to the next is lower and the standard deviations are greater for the obese as compared to normal weight individuals. This study helps to elucidate how obesity affects the rate of age-related skeletal change of the human pelvis, and shows that the pubic symphysis may be a more reliable indicator of age in obese individuals and that greater standard deviations are needed for obese individuals when estimating age-at-death from the pelvis. Am J Phys Anthropol 156:595–605, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Ectocranial suture closure: a revised method for the determination of skeletal age at death based on the lateral-anterior sutures

A new method for estimation of age-at-death based on the degree of suture closure is presented. The method employs simple ectocranial scoring of specific sites on the external table. Composite scores for two groups of sutures, lateral-anterior and vault systems, which are used to provide estimates of age-at-death, have been developed from a sample of 236 crania from the Hamann-Todd Collection. A variety of tests show that the lateral-anterior sutures are superior to the sutures of the vault, that ectocranial is superior to endocranial observation, and that age estimates are independent of race and sex. It is concluded that suture closure can provide valuable estimates of age-at-death in both archaeological and forensic contexts when used in conjunction with other skeletal age indicators.     

Paleodemographic age‐at‐death distributions of two Mexican skeletal collections: A comparison of transition analysis and traditional aging methods

Traditional methods of aging adult skeletons suffer from the problem of age mimicry of the reference collection, as described by Bocquet‐Appel and Masset (1982). Transition analysis (Boldsen et al., 2002) is a method of aging adult skeletons that addresses the problem of age mimicry of the reference collection by allowing users to select an appropriate prior probability. In order to evaluate whether transition analysis results in significantly different age estimates for adults, the method was applied to skeletal collections from Postclassic Cholula and Contact‐Period Xochimilco. The resulting age‐at‐death distributions were then compared with age‐at‐death distributions for the two populations constructed using traditional aging methods. Although the traditional aging methods result in age‐at‐death distributions with high young adult mortality and few individuals living past the age of 50, the age‐at‐death distributions constructed using transition analysis indicate that most individuals who lived into adulthood lived past the age of 50. Am J Phys Anthropol 152:67–78, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Is the first rib a reliable indicator of age at death assessment? Test of the method developed by Kunos et al (1999)

The aim of this study was to test the method Kunos and his colleagues (1999) developed on the first rib to assess adult age-at-death. The method was applied on a sample of known age and sex, selected from a Thai collection. The procedure being subjective, we chose to estimate an age category rather than a precise age.

The results show that only 55% of the individuals are correctly classified and that the number of subjects over 60 years old is under-estimated. Three explanations are given: the modifications of the first rib related with ageing are more variable than previously stated, the technique is too subjective and difficult to apply and the morphological changes of the first rib are different between North-American and Thai people.     

Seasonal variation in Plasmodium prevalence in a population of blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus

1. Seasonal variation in environmental conditions is ubiquitous and can affect the spread of infectious diseases. Understanding seasonal patterns of disease incidence can help to identify mechanisms, such as the demography of hosts and vectors, which influence parasite transmission dynamics. 2. We examined seasonal variation in Plasmodium infection in a blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus population over 3 years using sensitive molecular diagnostic techniques, in light of Beaudoin et al.'s (1971; Journal of Wildlife Diseases, 7, 5-13) model of seasonal variation in avian malaria prevalence in temperate areas. This model predicts a within-year bimodal pattern of spring and autumn peaks with a winter absence of infection. 3. Avian malaria infections were mostly Plasmodium (24.4%) with occasional Haemoproteus infections (0.8%). Statistical nonlinear smoothing techniques applied to longitudinal presence/absence data revealed marked temporal variation in Plasmodium prevalence, which apparently showed a within-year bimodal pattern similar to Beaudoin et al.'s model. However, of the two Plasmodium morphospecies accounting for most infections, only the seasonal pattern of Plasmodium circumflexum supported Beaudoin et al.'s model. On closer examination there was also considerable age structure in infection: Beaudoin et al.'s seasonal pattern was observed only in first year and not older birds. Plasmodium relictum prevalence was less seasonally variable. 4. For these two Plasmodium morphospecies, we reject Beaudoin et al.'s model as it does not survive closer scrutiny of the complexities of seasonal variation among Plasmodium morphospecies and host age classes. Studies of host-parasite interactions should consider seasonal variation whenever possible. We discuss the ecological and evolutionary implications of seasonal variation in disease prevalence.     

Seasonal variation in fecal testosterone levels in free-ranging male Japanese macaques

Seasonal variation in fecal testosterone levels in free-ranging male Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata) was examined with reference to their dominance rank and age class. Six adult (>or=7 years old, three higher-ranking and three lower-ranking) and four adolescent (5-6 years old, two higher-ranking and two lower-ranking) males were selected as target animals. Fecal samples of these males were collected during the first 3-5 days of each month and analyzed by the method developed by Barrett et al. [Primates 43:29-39, 2002 b]. Testosterone levels varied significantly across the 12 months, and were highest in the early and middle parts of the mating season (i.e., October and November). Higher-ranking adult males displayed a peak testosterone level in October, whereas lower-ranking adults had no clear peak in the mating season. Such a difference in testosterone peaks in males could provide higher-ranking males more opportunities to fertilize females at first ovulation in the mating season than lower-ranking males.     

Soil ingestion estimates for use in site evaluations based on the best tracer method

This paper develops a novel methodology, the Best Tracer method (BTM), that substantially overcomes the principal limitations (intertracer inconsistencies, and poor precision of recovery) of estimating soil ingestion by specific soil‐based tracers in massbalance studies. The BTM incorporates a biological and statistical framework that improves precision of recovery of tracer estimates, markedly reducing input‐output misalignment error resulting from a lack of correspondence between food tracer input and fecal tracer output.

This method is then used to re‐estimate the soil ingestion distribution of previously published soil ingestion estimates from two children studies (Calabrese et al. 1989; Davis et al., 1990) and one adult study (Calabrese et al., 1990). Revised estimates of soil ingestion are provided for each study. In addition, the results from the two children's studies are combined to form a single estimate of the soil ingestion distribution. These collective findings result in more reliable quantitative estimates of soil ingestion than trace element specific estimates, as well as providing improved understanding of current published soil ingestion studies, and improved methods that will enhance the design and interpretation of future soil ingestion studies.

With respect to children, the data indicate that the Calabrese et al. (1989) study provides the most reliable estimates of soil ingestion based on the estimated precision of recovery. However, estimates for the combined data of the Calabrese et al. (1989) and Davis et al. (1990) studies include all available children's data from mass balance studies, and thus provide more robust estimates. The collective data suggest that the median child in these studies ingested 30–40 mg/day of soil, while the upper 95% estimate is approximately 200 mg/day. Current data are insufficient to distinguish the children's soil ingestion distribution from that of adults. The revised and improved estimates of soil ingestion for children and adults have important implications for contaminant exposure estimates used in site evaluation risk assessment procedures.     

Socially biased learning among adult cottontop tamarins (Saguinus oedipus)

We presented adult cottontop tamarins (Saguinus oedipus) with a novel foraging task that had been used previously to examine socially biased learning of juvenile observers [Humle & Snowdon, Animal Behaviour 75:267–277, 2008]. The task could be solved in one of two ways, and thus allowed for an analysis of behavioral matching between an observer and a skilled demonstrator (trained to use one of the two methods exclusively). Because the demonstrator was an adult in both this study and the juvenile study, the influence of the observer's age could be isolated and examined, as well as the behavior of demonstrators toward observers of different ages. Our main goals were to (1) compare adults and juveniles acquiring the same task to identify how the age of the observer affects socially biased learning and (2) examine the relationship between socially biased learning and behavioral matching in adults. Although adults spent less time observing the trained demonstrators than did juveniles, the adults were more proficient at solving the task. Furthermore, even though observers did not overtly match the behavior of the demonstrator, observation remained an important factor in the success of these individuals. The findings suggested that adult observers could extract information needed to solve a novel foraging task without explicitly matching the behavior of the demonstrator. Adult observers begged much less than juveniles and demonstrators did not respond to begging from adult. Skill acquisition and the process of socially biased learning are, therefore, age‐dependent and are influenced by the behavioral interactions between observer and demonstrator. To what extent this holds true for other primates or animal species still needs to be more fully investigated and considered when designing experiments and interpreting results. Am. J. Primatol. 72:287–295, 2010. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

A note on key factor analysis

Various aspects of a model for key factor analysis (Manly , 1977a) are discussed. Equations for estimating the parameters of the model are given. The jackknife method is suggested for obtaining standard errors for estimators. The case of circular populations (where the adults in one generation produce all the individuals alive at the start of the next, generation) is considered. A computer program is described. Varley et al.'s (1973) data on the winter moth is used for illustrative purposes.