A simple algorithm to predict the development of radiological erosions in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To produce a practical algorithm to predict which patients with early rheumatoid arthritis will develop radiological erosions. DESIGN: Primary care based prospective cohort study. SETTING: All general practices in the Norwich Health Authority, Norfolk. SUBJECTS: 175 patients notified to the Norfolk Arthritis Register were visited by a metrologist soon after they had presented to their general practitioners with inflammatory polyarthritis, and again after a further 12 months. All the patients satisfied the American Rheumatism Association''s 1987 criteria for rheumatoid arthritis and were seen by a metrologist within six months of the onset of symptoms. The study population was randomly split into a prediction sample (n = 105) for generating the algorithm and a validation sample (n = 70) for testing it. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictor variables measured at baseline included rheumatoid factor status, swelling of specific joint areas, duration of morning stiffness, nodules, disability score, age, sex, and disease duration when the patient first presented. The outcome variable was the presence of radiological erosions in the hands or feet, or both, after 12 months. RESULTS: A simple algorithm based on a combination of three variables--a positive rheumatoid factor test, swelling of at least two large joints, and a disease duration of more than three months--was best able to predict erosions. When the accuracy of this algorithm was tested with the validation sample, the erosion status of 79% of patients was predicted correctly. CONCLUSIONS: A simple algorithm based on three easily measured items of information can predict which patients are at high risk and which are at low risk of developing radiological erosions.     

Prognostic factors of 10-year radiographic outcome in early rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective study

Introduction  

The objectives of this study were to determine the predictive factors of long-term radiographic outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and to describe the relationship between joint damage and disability over the course of the disease.     

The value of ultrasonography in predicting arthritis in auto-antibody positive arthralgia patients: a prospective cohort study

Introduction  

Ultrasonography (US) has better sensitivity than clinical evaluation for the detection of synovitis in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Patients presenting with arthralgia and a positive anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) and/or Rheumatoid Factor (IgM-RF) status are at risk for developing RA. In the present study, US utility and predictive properties in arthralgia patients at risk for the development of arthritis were studied.     

Charting the progression of disability in parkinson disease: study protocol for a prospective longitudinal cohort study

Background  

People with Parkinson disease (PD), even in the presence of symptomatic relief from medical, surgical, and rehabilitative interventions, face a persistent worsening of disability. This disability is characterized by diminished quality of life, reduced functional mobility, declining performance in activities of daily living and worsening neurological impairments. While evidence has emerged supporting the clinically meaningful benefits of short-term exercise programs on these underlying factors, assertions regarding the effects of sustained programs of exercise and physical activity on the trajectory of disablement in PD are made in the absence of direct evidence. Indeed, the natural decline in quality of life and functional mobility in people diagnosed with PD is poorly understood. Moreover, outcome measures commonly used in clinical exercise trials typically do not capture the full spectrum of disability as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO).     

The value of joint ultrasonography in predicting arthritis in seropositive patients with arthralgia: a prospective cohort study

Background

The value of joint ultrasonography (US) in the prediction of clinical arthritis in individuals at risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is still a point of debate, due to varying scanning protocols and different populations. We investigated whether US abnormalities assessed with a standard joint protocol can predict development of arthritis in seropositive patients with arthralgia.

Methods

Anti-citrullinated protein antibodies and/or rheumatoid factor positive patients with arthralgia, but without clinical arthritis were included. US was performed at baseline in 16 joints: bilateral metacarpophalangeal 2–3, proximal interphalangeal 2–3, wrist and metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints 2–3 and 5. Images were scored semi-quantitatively for synovial thickening and for positive signs on power Doppler (PD). Association between US abnormalities and arthritis development at the joint and at the patient level was evaluated. Also, we investigated the added value of US over clinical parameters.

Results

Out of 163 patients who underwent US examination, 51 (31%) developed clinical arthritis after a median follow-up time of 12 (interquartile range 5–24) months, of which 44 (86%) satisfied the 2010 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria for RA. US revealed synovial thickening and PD in at least one joint in 49 patients (30%) and 7 patients (4%), respectively. Synovial thickening was associated with both development and timing of clinical arthritis in any joint (patient level) when MTP joints were excluded from the US assessment (odds ratio 6.6, confidence interval (CI) 1.9–22), and hazard ratio 3.4, CI 1.6–6.8, respectively, with a mean time to arthritis of 23 versus 45?months when synovial thickening was present versus not present). There was no association between US and arthritis development at the joint level. Predictive capacity was highest in the groups with an intermediate and high risk of developing arthritis based on a prediction rule with clinical parameters.

Conclusions

Synovial thickening on US predicted clinical arthritis development at the patient level in seropositive patients with arthralgia when MTPs were excluded from the US assessment. Positive PD signs were infrequently seen in these at-risk individuals and was not predictive. In patients at intermediate risk of RA, US may help to identify those at higher risk of developing arthritis.

     

Predictors of fatigue severity in early systemic sclerosis: a prospective longitudinal study of the GENISOS cohort

Objectives

Longitudinal studies examining the baseline predictors of fatigue in SSc have not been reported. Our objectives were to examine the course of fatigue severity over time and to identify baseline clinical, demographic, and psychosocial predictors of sequentially obtained fatigue scores in early SSc. We also examined baseline predictors of change in fatigue severity over time.

Methods

We analyzed 1090 longitudinal Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) scores belonging to 256 patients who were enrolled in the Genetics versus Environment in Scleroderma Outcomes Study (GENISOS). Predictive significance of baseline variables for sequentially obtained FSS scores was examined with generalized linear mixed models. Predictors of change in FSS over time were examined by adding an interaction term between the baseline variable and time-in-study to the model.

Results

The patients'' mean age was 48.6 years, 47% were Caucasians, and 59% had diffuse cutaneous involvement. The mean disease duration at enrollment was 2.5 years. The FSS was obtained at enrollment and follow-up visits (mean follow-up time = 3.8 years). Average baseline FSS score was 4.7(±0.96). The FSS was relatively stable and did not show a consistent trend for change over time (p = 0.221). In a multivariable model of objective clinical variables, higher Medsger Gastrointestinal (p = 0.006) and Joint (p = 0.024) Severity Indices, and anti-U1-RNP antibodies (p = 0.024) were independent predictors of higher FSS. In the final model, ineffective coping skills captured by higher Illness Behavior Questionnaire scores (p<0.001), higher self-reported pain (p = 0.006), and higher Medsger Gastrointestinal Severity Index (p = 0.009) at enrollment were independent predictors of higher longitudinal FSS scores. Baseline DLco % predicted was the only independent variable that significantly predicted a change in FSS scores over time (p = 0.013), with lower DLco levels predicting an increase in FSS over time.

Conclusions

This study identified potentially modifiable clinical and psychological factors that predict longitudinal fatigue severity in early SSc.     

Predictors of interstitial lung disease in early systemic sclerosis: a prospective longitudinal study of the GENISOS cohort

Introduction

The objective of the present study was to examine the association of baseline demographic and clinical characteristics with sequentially obtained measurements of forced vital capacity (FVC), expressed as a percentage of the predicted value, and to identify predictors of the decline rate in FVC over time in the Genetics versus Environment in Scleroderma Outcome Study (GENISOS).

Methods

To date, 266 patients have been enrolled in GENISOS, a prospective, observational cohort of patients with early systemic sclerosis. In addition to pulmonary function tests (PFTs), clinical and laboratory data were obtained from each patient. We analyzed 926 FVC measurements utilizing generalized linear mixed models. The predictive significance of baseline variables for the decline rate in FVC was investigated by the interaction term between the variable and the follow-up time within the first 3 years after enrollment as well as throughout the entire follow-up time.

Results

The cohort consisted of 125 white, 54 African American, and 77 Hispanic patients with average disease duration of 2.5 years at enrollment. The mean follow-up time was 3.8 years, ranging up to 11.4 years. A number of baseline variables, including antibody status, African American ethnicity, disease type, baseline PFT values, modified Rodnan Skin Score, fibrosis on chest radiograph, and lung and skin subscores of the Severity Index, were associated with serially measured FVC levels. However, only the presence of anti-topoisomerase I antibodies (ATA) was associated with lower FVC levels (P < 0.001) as well as accelerated decline rate in FVC within the first 3 years of follow-up (P = 0.02). None of the baseline variables predicted the rate of decline in FVC on long-term follow-up. Patients with rapidly progressive ILD, however, were under-represented in the long-term follow-up group because the accelerated rate of decline in FVC was associated with poor survival (P = 0.001).

Conclusions

Presence of ATA was the only baseline variable associated with differential FVC levels, predicting the rate of decline in FVC within the first 3 years of follow-up. The association of faster decline in FVC with poor survival further emphasizes the need for identification of predictive biomarkers by collection of genetic information and serial blood samples in cohort studies.     

Pneumococcal meningitis in childhood: a longitudinal prospective study

After implementation of programmes for active immunization against Haemophilus influenzae b, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Neisseria meningitidis became the most common agents of bacterial meningitis in childhood. Over a 9-year period, children showing clinical and laboratory findings of meningitis on the basis of their positive cultures of blood or cerebro-spinal fluid (CSF) for S. pneumoniae were enrolled. Predisposing conditions, clinical and laboratory findings, and microbiological and imaging studies were considered. Meningitis-related death or neurological sequelae defined an unfavourable outcome. Sixty-four patients met the inclusion criteria. Thirty-one (48%) children had predisposing conditions to pneumococcal meningitis. Fever and neck stiffness were the main symptoms; 14 patients (22%) reported seizures before admission. Twenty-one patients required treatment in the intensive care unit (ICU). Streptococcus pneumoniae strains were penicillin susceptible in 54 cases (84%). Forty-eight children (75%) showed complete recovery. Two patients (3%) died, and 14 (22%) had sequelae. Patients with a low CSF cell count, low neutrophils, early admission to ICU or infection by penicillin-nonsusceptible strains of S. pneumoniae had an unfavourable outcome more frequently. Low blood neutrophils, low CSF cell count, early admission to ICU and infection by penicillin-nonsusceptible strains are the main factors predicting an unfavourable outcome in children with pneumococcal meningitis.     

Research of the Holiday kind: Tabulating Ingestion of Mocha Solution (TIMS): a longitudinal prospective cohort study

The annual "Roll Up the Rim to Win" contest at Tim Hortons restaurants provides customers the opportunity to win prizes. This study investigated win ratios, prize types and patterns of coffee consumption.     

Protein,iron, and meat consumption and risk for rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective cohort study

A recent prospective study showed that higher consumption of red meat and total protein was associated with increased risk for inflammatory polyarthritis. We therefore prospectively examined the relationship between diet (in particular, protein, iron, and corresponding food sources) and incident rheumatoid arthritis (RA) among 82,063 women in the Nurses' Health Study. From 1980 to 2002, 546 incident cases of RA were confirmed by a connective tissue disease screening questionnaire and medical record review for American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA. Diet was assessed at baseline in 1980 and five additional times during follow up. We conducted Cox proportional hazards analyses to calculate the rate ratio of RA associated with intakes of protein (total, animal, and vegetable) and iron (total, dietary, from supplements, and heme iron) and their primary food sources, adjusting for age, smoking, body mass index, and reproductive factors. The multivariate models revealed no association between RA and any measure of protein or iron intake. In comparisons of highest with lowest quintiles of intake, the rate ratio for total protein was 1.17 (95% confidence interval 0.89–1.54; P for trend = 0.11) and for total iron it was 1.04 (95% confidence interval 0.77–1.41; P for trend = 0.82). Red meat, poultry, and fish were also not associated with RA risk. We were unable to confirm that there is an association between protein or meat and risk for RA in this large female cohort. Iron was also not associated with RA in this cohort.     

Factors predicting patient use of the emergency department: a retrospective cohort study

Background:

Many studies have shown the tendency for people without a regular care provider or primary physician to make greater use of emergency departments. We sought to determine the effects of three aspects of care provided by primary physicians (physician specialty, continuity of care and comprehensiveness of care) on their patients’ use of the emergency department.

Methods:

Using provincial administrative databases, we created a cohort of 367 315 adults aged 18 years and older. Participants were residents of urban areas of Quebec. Affiliation with a primary physician, the specialty of this physician (i.e., family physician v. specialist), continuity of care (as measured using the Usual Provider Continuity index) and comprehensiveness of care (i.e., number of complete annual examinations) were measured among participants (n = 311 701) who had visited a physician three or more times during a two-year baseline period. We used multivariable negative binomial regression to investigate the relationships between measures of care and the number of visits to emergency departments during a 12-month follow-up period.

Results:

Among participants under 65 years of age, emergency department use was higher for those not affiliated than for those affiliated with a family physician (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.16) or a specialist (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04–1.17). Among patients aged 65 years and older, having a specialist primary physician, as opposed to a family physician, predicted increased use of the emergency department (IRR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09–1.17). Greater continuity of care with a family physician predicted less use of the emergency department only among participants who made 25 or more visits to a physician during the baseline period. Greater continuity of care with a specialist predicted less use of the emergency department overall, particularly among participants with intermediate numbers of multimorbidities and admissions to hospital. Greater comprehensiveness of care by family physicians predicted less use of the emergency department.

Interpretation:

Efforts to increase the proportion of adults affiliated with a family physician should target older adults, people who visit physicians more frequently and people with multiple comorbidities and admissions to hospital.Reforming primary care in Canada has been stimulated in part by increased crowding of emergency departments and evidence that their use, particularly for nonurgent care, may be related to inadequate primary care in the community.^1,2 Restructuring efforts, such as encouraging family physicians to work in multidisciplinary group practices with 24-hour access, are challenged by a relative shortage of family physicians.³ These issues are of particular importance in Quebec; despite relatively high numbers of family physicians per capita, in comparison with other provinces, residents of Quebec have the lowest rates of affiliation with a family physician and have one of the highest rates of seeing specialists.^4,5 In addition, residents of Quebec have among the highest rates of visits to emergency departments in international comparative studies.^6–8Research is needed into the effect that affiliation with a specialist rather than a family physician has on patients’ use of the emergency department, as is research into the continuity and comprehensiveness of care provided by the primary physician, regardless of specialty.Many studies have shown the tendency for people without a regular care provider to use the emergency department more often than people who have a primary physician.^1,9,10 Greater continuity of care with a primary physician has also been associated with fewer visits to the emergency department, but much of this research is cross-sectional, making causal interpretation difficult.¹¹ Furthermore, the distinction between continuity with a family physician versus a specialist primary physician has not been made, although one American study reported that having a specialist primary physician was associated with increased use of emergency departments.⁹We sought to determine whether certain factors predicted patients’ subsequent use of emergency departments, such as the specialty of their primary physician, the continuity of care with that physician and the comprehensiveness of care provided by that physician. To determine whether certain subgroups of the population may derive greater benefit from a particular type of care, we examined the potentially modifying effects of demographic factors, health status and previous use of health services. We restricted our study to residents of urban areas of Quebec for three reasons: rural residents visit the emergency department for primary care more often than residents of urban areas;¹² most specialist care is provided in urban areas; and primary care services in rural areas are more likely to be provided by salaried physicians, whose information is not available in the billing database.     

Baseline predictors of response and discontinuation of tumor necrosis factor-alpha blocking therapy in ankylosing spondylitis: a prospective longitudinal observational cohort study

Introduction  

Identifying ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients who are likely to benefit from tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) blocking therapy is important, especially in view of the costs and potential side effects of these agents. Recently, the AS Disease Activity Score (ASDAS) has been developed to assess both subjective and objective aspects of AS disease activity. However, data about the predictive value of the ASDAS with respect to clinical response to TNF-α blocking therapy are lacking. The aim of the present study was to identify baseline predictors of response and discontinuation of TNF-α blocking therapy in AS patients in daily clinical practice.     

Perinatal mortality in eastern Uganda: a community based prospective cohort study

Background

To achieve a child mortality reduction according to millennium development goal 4, it is necessary to considerably reduce neonatal mortality. We report stillbirth and early neonatal mortality risks as well as determinants of perinatal mortality in Eastern Uganda.

Methods

A community-based prospective cohort study was conducted between 2006 and 2008. A total of 835 pregnant women were followed up for pregnancy outcome and survival of their children until 7 days after delivery. Mother''s residence, age, parity, bed net use and whether delivery took place at home were included in multivariable regression analyses to identify risk factors for perinatal death.

Results

The stillbirth risk was 19 per 1,000 pregnancies and the early neonatal death risk 22 per 1,000 live births. Overall, the perinatal mortality risk was 41 [95%CI: 27, 54] per 1,000 pregnancies. Of the deaths, 47% followed complicated deliveries and 24% preterm births. Perinatal mortality was 63/1,000 pregnancies among teenage mothers, 76/1,000 pregnancies among nulliparous women and 61/1,000 pregnancies among women delivering at home who, after controlling for potential confounders, had a 3.7 (95%CI: 1.8, 7.4) times higher perinatal mortality than women who gave birth in a health facility. This association was considerably stronger among nulliparous women [RR 8.0 (95%CI: 2.9, 21.6)] than among women with a previous live birth [RR 1.8 (95%CI: 0.7, 4.5)]. All perinatal deaths occurred among women who did not sleep under a mosquito net. Women living in urban slums had a higher risk of losing their babies than those in rural areas [RR: 2.7 (95%CI: 1.4, 5.3)].

Conclusion

Our findings strengthen arguments for ensuring that pregnant women have access to and use adequate delivery facilities and bed nets.     

Detection of bone erosions in rheumatoid arthritis wrist joints with magnetic resonance imaging, computed tomography and radiography

Background

The objectives of the present study were, with multidetector computed tomography (CT) as the reference method, to determine the performance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and radiography for the detection of bone erosions in rheumatoid arthritis wrist bones, and to test whether measuring volumes of erosions on CT and MRI is reproducible and correlated to semiquantitative assessments (scores) of erosions on CT, MRI and radiography.

Methods

Seventeen patients with rheumatoid arthritis and four healthy control individuals underwent CT, MRI and radiography of one wrist, performed on the same day. CT was performed on a Philips Mx8000IDT unit (voxel size 0.4 mm × 0.4 mm × 1 mm) and MRI was performed on a Philips Panorama 0.6T unit (voxel size 0.4 mm × 0.4 mm × 0.4 mm). Images were evaluated separately for erosions in all wrist bones and were scored according to the principles of the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Rheumatoid Arthritis MRI Scoring System (CT and MRI) and the Sharp/van der Heijde (radiographs) scoring methods. Measurements of erosion volumes of all erosions were performed twice with a 1-week interval.

Results

With CT as the reference method, the overall sensitivity, specificity and accuracy (concordance) of MRI for detecting erosions were 61%, 93% and 77%, respectively, while the respective values were 24%, 99% and 63% for radiography. The intramodality agreements when measuring erosion volumes were high for both CT and MRI (Spearman correlation coefficients 0.92 and 0.90 (both P < 0.01), respectively). Correlations between volumes and scores of individual erosions were 0.96 for CT and 0.99 for MRI, while they were 0.83 (CT) and 0.80 (MRI) for persons' total erosion volume and total score (all P < 0.01).

Conclusion

With CT as the reference method, MRI showed moderate sensitivity and good specificity and accuracy for detection of erosions in rheumatoid arthritis and healthy wrist bones, while radiography showed very low sensitivity. The tested volumetric method was highly reproducible and correlated to scores of erosions.     

Generic quality of life assessment in dementia patients: a prospective cohort study

Background  

Quality of life (QoL) is increasingly used to characterize the impact of disease and the efficacy of interventions.     

Prognostic significance of sealed-off perforation in colon cancer: a prospective cohort study

Background

Perforated colon cancer is a rare complication, but has a high risk of recurrence. However, most studies have not distinguished sealed-off perforation from free perforation, and the prognosis is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the oncologic outcome of colon cancer with sealed-off perforation.

Methods

Eighty-six consecutive patients who underwent resection for colon cancer with sealed-off or free perforation were included. We defined sealed-off perforation as a colon perforation with localized abscess identified on operative, computed tomography, or pathologic findings, with no evidence of free perforation, including fecal contamination and dirty fluid collection in the peritoneal cavity. Oncologic outcomes were compared between patients with colon cancer with sealed-off perforation and free perforation using a log-rank test and Cox regression analysis.

Results

The sealed-off perforation group included 62 patients, and 24 patients were in the free perforation group. TNM stage and lymphatic, venous, and perineural invasion were similar between the groups. The median follow-up period was 28.9?months (range 0–159). The sealed-off perforation group had better prognosis compared with the free perforation group in terms of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), although there were no statistically significant differences in PFS (5-year PFS 53.7% vs. 40.5%, p?=?0.148; 5-year OS 53.6% vs. 22.9%, p?=?0.001). However, in multivariable analysis using the Cox progression test, sealed-off perforation did not show a significant effect on cancer progression (p =?0.138) and OS (p =?0.727).

Conclusions

Colon cancer with sealed-off perforation showed no difference in prognosis compared with free perforation.

     

The loss of health status in rheumatoid arthritis and the effect of biologic therapy: a longitudinal observational study

Introduction  

The long-term course of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in terms of health status is not well understood, nor is the degree of effectiveness of biologic therapy in the community. We modeled the progression of loss of health status, and measured incremental costs and effectiveness of biologic therapy in the community.