Powerful Exact Unconditional Tests for Agreement between Two Raters with Binary Endpoints

Asymptotic and exact conditional approaches have often been used for testing agreement between two raters with binary outcomes. The exact conditional approach is guaranteed to respect the test size as compared to the traditionally used asymptotic approach based on the standardized Cohen''s kappa coefficient. An alternative to the conditional approach is an unconditional strategy which relaxes the restriction of fixed marginal totals as in the conditional approach. Three exact unconditional hypothesis testing procedures are considered in this article: an approach based on maximization, an approach based on the conditional p-value and maximization, and an approach based on estimation and maximization. We compared these testing procedures based on the commonly used Cohen''s kappa with regards to test size and power. We recommend the following two exact approaches for use in practice due to power advantages: the approach based on conditional p-value and maximization and the approach based on estimation and maximization.     

An Adjusted Likelihood Ratio Approach Analysing Distribution of Food Products to Assist the Investigation of Foodborne Outbreaks

In order to facilitate foodborne outbreak investigations there is a need to improve the methods for identifying the food products that should be sampled for laboratory analysis. The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of a likelihood ratio approach previously developed on simulated data, to real outbreak data. We used human case and food product distribution data from the Norwegian enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli outbreak in 2006. The approach was adjusted to include time, space smoothing and to handle missing or misclassified information. The performance of the adjusted likelihood ratio approach on the data originating from the HUS outbreak and control data indicates that the adjusted approach is promising and indicates that the adjusted approach could be a useful tool to assist and facilitate the investigation of food borne outbreaks in the future if good traceability are available and implemented in the distribution chain. However, the approach needs to be further validated on other outbreak data and also including other food products than meat products in order to make a more general conclusion of the applicability of the developed approach.     

Multiple imputation for missing values through conditional Semiparametric odds ratio models

Multiple imputation is a practically useful approach to handling incompletely observed data in statistical analysis. Parameter estimation and inference based on imputed full data have been made easy by Rubin's rule for result combination. However, creating proper imputation that accommodates flexible models for statistical analysis in practice can be very challenging. We propose an imputation framework that uses conditional semiparametric odds ratio models to impute the missing values. The proposed imputation framework is more flexible and robust than the imputation approach based on the normal model. It is a compatible framework in comparison to the approach based on fully conditionally specified models. The proposed algorithms for multiple imputation through the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling approach can be straightforwardly carried out. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed approach performs better than existing, commonly used imputation approaches. The proposed approach is applied to imputing missing values in bone fracture data.     

A resynthesis of the primordial and circumstantial approaches to ethnic group solidarity: Towards an explanatory model

Social scientists who have attempted to explain ethnic group solidarity have tended to use either the primordial or the circumstantial approach. The first approach accounts for strong ethnic attachments on the basis of their ineffable affective significance. Moreover, this affective significance most often surrounds images of the group's distinctive past, thus giving a historical dimension to the concept of primordialism. The second approach views ethnic group solidarity as resulting from certain social circumstances, both internal and external, under which the members of the group exist. It is argued that neither approach alone offers a sufficient explanation ‐ i.e., that the primordial approach cannot readily account for fluctuating ethnic group solidarity and that the circumstantial approach tends to ignore the affective significance of ethnic ties ‐ and that previous attempts to synthesize them have been inadequate as explanatory models. Such a synthetic model is offered, which is based on the oppositional approach originated by Edward Spicer and which maintains that fluctuating ethnicity, along with fluctuating primordial sentiments, can be best explained on the basis of the circumstance of fluctuating opposition.     

生态系统多功能性的测度方法

生物多样性与生态系统多功能性(biodiversity and ecosystem multifunctionality, BEMF)之间的关系是目前生态学研究的一个热点, 其中, 生态系统多功能性(EMF)的测度方法是研究该问题的技术关键。由于缺乏统一的认识, 目前存在多个多功能性的测度方法, 这使人们对生物多样性与生态系统多功能性之间关系的理解复杂化。本文介绍了国际上常用的单功能法、功能-物种替代法、平均值法、单阈值法、多阈值法、直系同源基因法和多元模型法的原理及其特点, 并对其中较难理解的多阈值法进行了举例说明, 希望能对理解EMF的测度方法有所帮助。本文按不同的EMF测度方法对已发表的有关文章进行了归类, 以期帮助读者更好地选择EMF的测度方法。由于缺乏相对统一的、代表各个层次的生态系统功能的测度方法, 导致不同的研究结果难以相互比较, 严重限制了生物多样性与生态系统多功能性研究的发展; 所以, 研发新的、具有普遍适用性的EMF测度方法已成为当务之急。     

Methodology for estimating the abundance of rare animals: seabird nesting on north east Herald Cay

We discuss the problem of estimating the number of nests of different species of seabirds on North East Herald Cay based on the data from a 1996 survey of quadrats along transects and data from similar past surveys. We consider three approaches based on different plausible models, namely a conditional negative binomial model that allows for additional zeroes in the data, a weighting approach (based on a heteroscedastic regression model), and a transform-both-sides regression approach. We find that the conditional negative binomial approach and a linear regression approach work well but that the transform-both-sides approach should not be used. We apply the conditional negative binomial and linear regression approaches with poststratification based on data quality and availability to estimate the number of frigatebird nests on North East Herald Cay.     

ON MULTILEVEL SELECTION AND KIN SELECTION: CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS MEETS DIRECT FITNESS

When Hamilton defined the concept of inclusive fitness, he specifically was looking to define the fitness of an individual in terms of that individual's behavior, and the effects of its’ behavior on other related individuals. Although an intuitively attractive concept, issues of accounting for fitness, and correctly assigning it to the appropriate individual make this approach difficult to implement. The direct fitness approach has been suggested as a means of modeling kin selection while avoiding these issues. Whereas Hamilton's inclusive fitness approach assigns to the focal individual the fitness effects of its behavior on other related individuals, the direct fitness approach assigns the fitness effects of other actors to the focal individual. Contextual analysis was independently developed as a quantitative genetic approach for measuring multilevel selection in natural populations. Although the direct fitness approach and contextual analysis come from very different traditions, both methods rely on the same underlying equation, with the primary difference between the two approaches being that the direct fitness approach uses fitness optimization modeling, whereas with contextual analysis, the same equation is used to solve for the change in fitness associated with a change in phenotype when the population is away from the optimal phenotype.     

Investigation of an expert systems approach to bacterial identification

An investigation was carried out to assess the feasibility ofusing an expert systems approach to assist in the identificationof unknown isolates of bacteria. A system was developed usingLisp which utilized the knowledge stored in standard bacteriologicaltexts. A comparison of the expert systems approach and the probabilisticapproach based on Bayes Theorem was made together with the advantagesand disadvantages of each approach. Received on November 5, 1990; accepted on February 20, 1991     

Can interaction coefficients be determined from census data? Testing two estimation methods with Negev Desert rodents

Two approaches based on regression models are proposed to estimate competition from census data. The "static" approach is based on censuses of population sizes among species at one point in time over many sites. The "dynamic" approach relies on a time series of species abundance data to examine whether per capita changes in one species are associated with the abundance of other species. We estimated competition interactions in a Negev rodent community consisting of 10 species using both approaches, basing on 8 years (16 half-year periods) of observations. The static approach revealed significant competitive interactions in four of 45 pairs of species, whereas the dynamic approach did so in the same four plus two more pairs. For each species pair, both approaches revealed significant negative interactions in only 1–4 of 16 seasons. The static approach provided nearly symmetric estimations of competition, whereas estimations of dynamic approach were asymmetric. Moreover, estimations of the two approaches did not coincide in time. Cases of negative interactions recorded by the static approach were more frequent at peak and increase phases of population density dynamics, whereas those recorded by the dynamic approach were more frequent at peak and decline phases. Results of field removal experiments with Mus musculus and Gerbillus dasyurus supported predictions of dynamic but not static approaches. We hypothesized that in harsh and fluctuating desert environments that disrupt equilibrium, the dynamic approach indicates true (exploitation) competition, whereas the static approach reflects negative interspecific spatial association (interference).     

A New Trend in the Experimental Methodology for the Analysis of the Thioflavin T Binding to Amyloid Fibrils

The studies on the determination of the characteristics of the amyloid fibril interaction with the dye were based on the analysis of the dependence of the ThT fluorescence intensity on its concentration in the solution containing the amyloid fibrils. In the present work, we revealed that this intuitive approach provided erroneous data. We propose a new approach which provides a means for characterizing the interaction of thioflavin T (ThT) with amyloid fibrils and for determining the binding stoichiometry and binding constants, absorption spectrum, molar extinction coefficient, and fluorescence quantum yield of the ThT bound to the sites of different binding modes of fibrils. The key point of this approach is sample preparation by equilibrium microdialysis. The efficiency of the proposed approach is demonstrated via the examination of the ThT binding to insulin and Aβ42 fibrils as well as to the native form of the Electrophorus electricus acetylcholinesterase. We show that the peculiarities of ThT interaction with amyloid fibrils depend on the amyloidogenic protein and on the binding mode. This approach is universal and can be used for the analysis of binding mechanism of any dye that interacts with its receptor. Therefore, the proposed approach represents an important addition to the existing arsenal of means for the diagnostics and therapy of the neurodegenerative diseases.     

Linkage analysis of GAW14 simulated data: comparison of multimarker, multipoint, and conditional approaches

The purposes of this study were 1) to examine the performance of a new multimarker regression approach for model-free linkage analysis in comparison to a conventional multipoint approach, and 2) to determine the whether a conditioning strategy would improve the performance of the conventional multipoint method when applied to data from two interacting loci. Linkage analysis of the Kofendrerd Personality Disorder phenotype to chromosomes 1 and 3 was performed in three populations for all 100 replicates of the Genetic Analysis Workshop 14 simulated data. Three approaches were used: a conventional multipoint analysis using the Zlr statistic as calculated in the program ALLEGRO; a conditioning approach in which the per-family contribution on one chromosome was weighted according to evidence for linkage on the other chromosome; and a novel multimarker regression approach. The multipoint and multimarker approaches were generally successful in localizing known susceptibility loci on chromosomes 1 and 3, and were found to give broadly similar results. No advantage was found with the per-family conditioning approach. The effect on power and type I error of different choices of weighting scheme (to account for different numbers of affected siblings) in the multimarker approach was examined.     

Transformationalism,taxism, and developmental biology in systematics

Issues concerning transformational and taxic comparisons are central to understanding the impact of the recent proliferation of molecular developmental data on evolutionary biology. More importantly, an understanding of taxism and transformationalism in comparative biology is critical to assessing the impact of the recent developmental data on systematic theory and practice. We examine the philosophical and practical aspects of the transformational approach and the relevance of this approach to recent molecular-based developmental data. We also examine the theoretical basis of the taxic approach to molecular developmental data and suggest that developmental data are perfectly amenable to the taxic approach. Two recent examples from the molecular developmental biology literature--the evolution of insect wings and the evolution of dorsal ventral inversion in vertebrates and invertebrates--are used to compare the taxic and transformational approaches. We conclude that the transformational approach is entirely appropriate for ontogenetic studies and furthermore can serve as an excellent source of hypotheses about the evolution of characters. However, the taxic approach is the ultimate arbiter of these hypotheses.     

A Bayesian model comparison approach to inferring positive selection

A popular approach to detecting positive selection is to estimate the parameters of a probabilistic model of codon evolution and perform inference based on its maximum likelihood parameter values. This approach has been evaluated intensively in a number of simulation studies and found to be robust when the available data set is large. However, uncertainties in the estimated parameter values can lead to errors in the inference, especially when the data set is small or there is insufficient divergence between the sequences. We introduce a Bayesian model comparison approach to infer whether the sequence as a whole contains sites at which the rate of nonsynonymous substitution is greater than the rate of synonymous substitution. We incorporated this probabilistic model comparison into a Bayesian approach to site-specific inference of positive selection. Using simulated sequences, we compared this approach to the commonly used empirical Bayes approach and investigated the effect of tree length on the performance of both methods. We found that the Bayesian approach outperforms the empirical Bayes method when the amount of sequence divergence is small and is less prone to false-positive inference when the sequences are saturated, while the results are indistinguishable for intermediate levels of sequence divergence.     

A new method for dealing with residual spatial autocorrelation in species distribution models

Species distribution modelling (SDM) is a widely used tool and has many applications in ecology and conservation biology. Spatial autocorrelation (SAC), a pattern in which observations are related to one another by their geographic distance, is common in georeferenced ecological data. SAC in the residuals of SDMs violates the ‘independent errors’ assumption required to justify the use of statistical models in modelling species’ distributions. The autologistic modelling approach accounts for SAC by including an additional term (the autocovariate) representing the similarity between the value of the response variable at a location and neighbouring locations. However, autologistic models have been found to introduce bias in the estimation of parameters describing the influence of explanatory variables on habitat occupancy. To address this problem we developed an extension to the autologistic approach by calculating the autocovariate on SAC in residuals (the RAC approach). Performance of the new approach was tested on simulated data with a known spatial structure and on strongly autocorrelated mangrove species’ distribution data collected in northern Australia. The RAC approach was implemented as generalized linear models (GLMs) and boosted regression tree (BRT) models. We found that the BRT models with only environmental explanatory variables can account for some SAC, but applying the standard autologistic or RAC approaches further reduced SAC in model residuals and substantially improved model predictive performance. The RAC approach showed stronger inferential performance than the standard autologistic approach, as parameter estimates were more accurate and statistically significant variables were accurately identified. The new RAC approach presented here has the potential to account for spatial autocorrelation while maintaining strong predictive and inferential performance, and can be implemented across a range of modelling approaches.     

中国木质林产品碳储量及其减排潜力

伐后木质林产品作为森林生态系统碳循环的一个组成部分,对森林生态系统和大气之间的碳平衡起着至关重要的作用.为准确合理估算木质林产品碳储量和我国参加气候变化谈判提供依据,在达喀尔会议上确立的3种估算方法框架下,即:储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法,利用寿命分析法和逐步递归法以及国内参数计算我国木质林产品的碳储量,且对生产法的应用提出了一种新假设思路,并分析我国木质林产品在替代建筑材料方面的减排潜力,结果显示:①分别利用储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法估算我国1961～2004年木质林产品的碳储量变化,证明我国的木质林产品是一个碳库,并且这个碳库的碳储量不断在增长;② 3种方法估算1961～2004年木质林产品碳储量的年平均增长量分别是11.73Mt · a-1(Mt=106t)、9.31Mt · a-1和7 90Mt · a-1;③木质林产品在建筑材料领域的替代作用以及延长其使用寿命使其减排潜力增大;④从碳储量计量和估算的难易程度来看,储量变化法的应用可能对我国较为有利;⑤针对生产法假设的实践应用,还需要进一步的研究.     

The cost of complexity in forecasts of population abundances is reduced but not eliminated by borrowing information across space using a hierarchical approach

Anticipating ecological changes is paramount if we are to manage biodiversity and the services they provide to humanity. When forecasting population abundances, studies have shown that simple statistical models often have better forecast performance than complex models. These studies have evaluated forecasts of models fitted separately to data from single sites (single-site approach). Here, we aim to contrast the forecast performance and forecast horizon between a single-site approach and a hierarchical multi-site approach where a single model is fitted to data from multiple-sites, and to investigate how they vary with model complexity. We used 5273 population time series on 84 species from the Swedish breeding bird survey program, and found that simple models on average had better forecast performance and forecast horizon than complex models for both the single- and the multi-site approach. However, the cost of complexity was considerably reduced under the multi-site approach, while the proportion of species for which complex models had better forecast performance than simple models was also much larger than under the single-site approach. This suggests that the multi-site approach is useful for inclusion of more detailed processes which may benefit forecasts for some species and which are of importance for managers. Still, our results are in line with some previous studies suggesting that it is surprisingly difficult to construct complex models that, on average, beat trivial baseline forecasts.     

一类神经传播方程的特征差分方法和最佳阶l^2误差估计

给出矩形域上一类神经传播方程的特征差分,利用沿特征线方向构造差分逼近格式的方法和技巧．对给定的模型进行离散数值逼近和数值分析．特别是在沿特征线方向构造离散差分格式的过程中,可能会出现离散点在定义域之外的问题．本文提供了一个新的有效的差分逼近的处理方法,得到了该方法的三。一模误差估计．     

Plasmid transformation of Bacillus cereus on cellophane membranes

A simple approach to test the ability of bacteria to undergo natural genetic transformation is suggested. The basic feature of the approach is the cultivation of bacterial cells in the presence of exogenous (plasmid) DNA on cellophane membranes placed successively on nutrient and selective agar. Using this approach the ability of Bacillus cereus for "natural" genetic transformation was detected. Transformation frequencies varied from 10(-8) to 10(-6).     

Approach behaviour and embryonic visual experience in chicks: studies on the effect of rate of visual flicker

It has been demonstrated that visual stimulation during the latter part of embryonic development will have its effect on subsequent approach behaviour in the chick. Stimulation here had been of a non-specific type, i.e. mere presence or absence of illumination. This study was conducted to see how much specific stimulation like visual flicker applied during the latter part of embryonic development would affect approach to the same or similar stimuli. In experiment 1 extremely slow flicker (6·6 and 20 c/min) was applied to the eggs under incubation. Treatment groups were tested for approach on flickering and non-flickering stimuli after hatching. Results show that exposing the eggs to flicker has an effect on approach behaviour. Groups that received flicker at a rate of 20 c/min approach faster than those which received flicker at the rate of 6·6 c/min. A significant improvement over trials was only found in the group which received flicker of 20 c/min during the embryonic period. In experiment 2 which employed a range of very much faster flicker no significant treatment effects became apparent. These results suggest that visual flicker as embryonic stimulation is effective in priming the embryo to yield better approach performance after hatching. Results of experiment 2 indicate that the effect of flicker as embryonic stimulation may operate over a certain range in affecting subsequent approach performance.