More on the determinants of the fertility transition

The economic approach to fertility is an application of the economics theory of consumer behavior. It is assumed that consumers of children are utility-maximizers with stable preferences over time. Thus, changes in fertility are related to changes in household income and the "price" of children. One concern in this approach is that demographic changes are a product of changes in tastes rather than exogenous changes in economic factors such as the earning ability of women. In this paper, the effect of economic variables on the demand for children in the United States in 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1980 is examined. Support is provided for the hypothesis that the earning ability of women is an important determinant of fertility.     

Heredity counseling the darker side

Abstract

A new approach to discovering a consistent relationship between female employment and fertility valid over different stages of economic development is proposed. A better understanding of the relationship will be gained by taking into account: (1) ecological and individual levels of analysis; (2) the life‐cycle aspects of fertility and labor force participation; (3) the matching of current and historical perspective on both work and fertility; (4) measures of fertility that provide information on both the number and the spacing of children, and (5) an approach to measuring labor force participation that emphasizes the utilization of labor.     

Assessing the correlates of desired family size in Shaanxi,China

Abstract

This exploratory analysis of factors associated with Chinese women's fertility desires uses data on married women between the ages of 18 and 35 who live in Shaanxi Province, China. Analyses using an economic framework found that both rural and urban couples who intended to sign, or who had already signed, the one‐child certificate reported wanting significantly fewer children. However, in rural areas (where 80 per cent of the provincial population lives), education level, living arrangements, participation in an arranged marriage, attitudes regarding the ideal age for marriage, and knowledge of the reasons for the government's fertility policies appear to play a relatively larger role in shaping fertility preferences.     

Correcting contraceptive failure rates for sample composition and sample selection bias

Abstract

There is reason to believe that in the short run marriages are becoming more stable in some Western African countries such as Cameroon. One of the crucial questions facing these countries is whether fertility rates can be expected to increase or decrease due in part to the increased stability of marriages. Analyzing 1978 Cameroon World Fertility Survey data and using a multivariate regression model which compares the fertility rate of women who have had at least one marital disruption with that of continuously married women, we studied the relationship between marital instability and fertility. The results show that fertility rates for women married more than once are significantly lower than those for continuously married women even before the end of their first marriage. Furthermore, marital disruption significantly reduces fertility rates after the dissolution of the first marriage. Finally, even after the length of reproductive time lost is controlled, there is an inverse relationship between the number of marriages and fertility. The results are discussed in the context of economic development, modernization, and urbanization.     

High income men have high value as long-term mates in the U.S.: personal income and the probability of marriage,divorce, and childbearing in the U.S.

Using data from the first Census data set that includes complete measures of male biological fertility for a large-scale probability sample of the U.S. population (the 2014 wave of the Study of Income and Program Participation-N = 55,281), this study shows that high income men are more likely to marry, are less likely to divorce, if divorced are more likely to remarry, and are less likely to be childless than low income men. Men who remarry marry relatively younger women than other men, on average, although this does not vary by personal income. For men who divorce who have children, high income is not associated with an increased probability of having children with new partners. Income is not associated with the probability of marriage for women and is positively associated with the probability of divorce. High income women are less likely to remarry after divorce and more likely to be childless than low income women. For women who divorce who have children, high income is associated with a lower chance of having children with new partners, although the relationship is curvilinear. These results are behavioral evidence that women are more likely than men to prioritize earning capabilities in a long-term mate and suggest that high income men have high value as long-term mates in the U.S.     

Explaining the Role of Proximate Determinants on Fertility Decline among Poor and Non-Poor in Asian Countries

ObjectivesWe examined the overall contributions of the poor and non-poor in fertility decline across the Asian countries. Further, we analyzed the direct and indirect factors that determine the reproductive behaviour of two distinct population sub-groups.DesignData from several new rounds of DHS surveys are available over the past few years. The DHS provides cross-nationally comparable and useful data on fertility, family planning, maternal and child health along with the other information. Six selected Asian countries namely: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, and Vietnam are considered for the purpose of the study. Three rounds of DHS surveys for each country (except Vietnam) are considered in the present study.MethodsEconomic status is measured by computing a “wealth index”, i.e. a composite indicator constructed by aggregating data on asset ownership and housing characteristics using principal components analysis (PCA). Computed household wealth index has been broken into three equal parts (33.3 percent each) and the lowest and the highest 33.3 percent is considered as poor and non-poor respectively. The Bongaarts model was employed to quantify the contribution of each of the proximate determinants of fertility among poor and non-poor women.ResultsFertility reduction across all population subgroups is now an established fact despite the diversity in the level of socio-economic development in Asian countries. It is clear from the analysis that fertility has declined irrespective of economic status at varying degrees within and across the countries which can be attributed to the increasing level of contraceptive use especially among poor women. Over the period of time changing marriage pattern and induced abortion are playing an important role in reducing fertility among poor women.ConclusionsFertility decline among majority of the poor women across the Asian countries is accompanied by high prevalence of contraceptive use followed by changing marriage pattern and induced abortion.     

Determinants of the sex ratio at birth: Review of recent literature

Abstract

Use of contraception by rural Egyptian women who desire no more children is examined within a modified microeconomic framework. Four sets of factors are hypothesized to influence current use of contraception: (1) costs of contraception, ‘(2) factors influencing the slope of the desired family size function, (3) anticipated costs of child rearing and (4) strength of motivation for fertility regulation. Women's education and two measures of psychic costs were found to be important predictors of contraceptive use. Factors affecting the demand for children and thus indirectly influencing the motivation for fertility regulation were also important. Land ownership, cultivating status of the household, and educational expectations for children were significantly related to current use. Strength of motivation, although significant, was less strongly related to use of contraception. The findings suggest women who want no more children, but who are not practicing contraception, are affected by factors influencing both the costs of contraception and the costs of an unwanted child.     

The prospects for genetic improvement

Abstract

Recent versions of the economic theory of fertility have attempted to make the framework more generally applicable to all types of populations through an explicit treatment of supply considerations in combination with an analysis of the determinants of demand. Easterlin has suggested that the supply of children to an individual couple is determined by biological constraints in combination with the Davis‐Blake intermediate variables and with mortality patterns. However, anthropological studies of household structure, fertility, adoption, and migration point to a broader definition of the supply of children and to a more dynamic view of the ways in which supply and demand for household members are adjusted over the life‐cycle of the household.     

A period analysis of parity distribution among white and nonwhite women in the United States, 1940–1974

Abstract

The historical trends of childlessness and of one‐child, two‐child, and three‐or‐more‐child families among white and nonwhite women in the United States are studied in terms of period fertility tables. Given the age and parity of a woman, we can read from the fertility tables how her parity is expected to change at successive ages during the rest of her childbearing period, if she is subjected to the age‐parity‐specific fertility rates for a particular year. The fertility tables for white and nonwhite women are constructed for the years 1940, 19S0, 1960, 1970, and 1974. These tables show that among white women who have completed their childbearing (with period rates), the percentage with more than two children has decreased from 66 in 1960 to 27 in 1974, whereas the corresponding reduction among nonwhite women is from 67 to 48 per cent (Table 1, Case 1).     

A delay in age at first mating results in the loss of future reproductive potential via apoptosis

Summary Women who delay childbearing risk subfertility. However, this loss of fertility is not a simple function of aging. Women who have had children early in life tend to maintain fertility longer, measured as a later age at menopause. But why should otherwise healthy women lose reproductive capacity? Loss of fertility independent of senescence, menopause, has been approached from two perspectives: evolution and development. Evolutionary biologists focus on how natural selection favors survival after reproductive ability has ceased, whereas reproductive biologists examine mechanisms by which women lose fertility with age and factors that influence the rate of reproductive aging. Combining mechanistic studies with evolutionary theory should allow us to define principles of the evolution of postembryonic development of ovaries, including the role of reproductive timing relative to sexual maturation. Achieving this will require identifying appropriate, and more experimentally tractable, taxa in which to study how early reproductive events influence lifetime fertility. We work with an invertebrate species, the cockroach Nauphoeta cinerea, with a complex reproductive biology in which females experience reproductive cycles, give live birth, and show age‐related decline in fertility. Thus, N. cinerea provides an opportunity to use an experimental approach to examine mechanisms by which females lose reproductive potential as they delay reproduction. Our results demonstrate that the loss of both oocytes ready for fertilization and future oocytes in females that delay mating is because of apoptosis. We suggest that loss of fertility because of delayed mating may originate in a nonadaptive response in control of apoptosis through mistiming of reproduction.     

A demographic dilemma: The Parsis of Karachi

Abstract

Own‐children fertility estimates derived from the Korean censuses of 1966 and 1970 indicate that the total fertility rate fell by more than half a child in the intercensal period, from an estimated 4,837 to 4,257 per thousand. A compositional analysis shows that about one‐fourth of the fall can be attributed to changes in population composition by urban‐rural residence, education, marital status, and parity, and about three‐fourths to changes in age‐specific birth rates cross‐classified by these same characteristics. The own‐children method is used to generate the finely specified birth rates necessary for this analysis, and a decomposition technique used previously by one of the authors is extended to incorporate the unusually large number of compositional variables.     

Female Employment Reduces Fertility in Rural Senegal

Economic growth and modernization of society are generally associated with fertility rate decreases but which forces trigger this is unclear. In this paper we assess how fertility changes with increased labor market participation of women in rural Senegal. Evidence from high-income countries suggests that higher female employment rates lead to reduced fertility rates but evidence from developing countries at an early stage of demographic transition is largely absent. We concentrate on a rural area in northern Senegal where a recent boom in horticultural exports has been associated with a sudden increase in female off-farm employment. Using survey data we show that employed women have a significantly higher age at marriage and at first childbirth, and significantly fewer children. As causal identification strategy we use instrumental variable and difference-in-differences estimations, combined with propensity score matching. We find that female employment reduces the number of children per woman by 25%, and that this fertility-reducing effect is as large for poor as for non-poor women and larger for illiterate than for literate women. Results imply that female employment is a strong instrument for empowering rural women, reducing fertility rates and accelerating the demographic transition in poor countries. The effectiveness of family planning programs can increase if targeted to areas where female employment is increasing or to female employees directly because of a higher likelihood to reach women with low-fertility preferences. Our results show that changes in fertility preferences not necessarily result from a cultural evolution but can also be driven by sudden and individual changes in economic opportunities.     

A regression approach to the projection of U.S. fertility based on past fertility data

Abstract

The method of fertility projection used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census involves assumptions about the ultimate cohort total fertility rate and the ultimate cohort mean age at childbearing based on recent levels of fertility and women's birth expectations. This paper provides an outline of a general regression approach to fertility projection based on past data which would generate these two ultimate cohort characteristics. The technique is illustrated by using the U.S. single‐year age‐specific fertility rates up to 1986 for total women and projecting them indefinitely into the future until they become stable for both calendar years and cohorts.     

Patterns of digit preference and avoidance in the age statistics of some recent national censuses: A test of the turner hypothesis

Abstract

The relationship between family type and fertility among Iranian peasant women is examined through multiple classification analysis. It is shown that peasant women living in extended families have a significantly lower level of fertility than do those living in nuclear families. The hypothesis that part of this lower fertility is due to population pressure on the limited resources of the household is tested, and it is noted that women in extended families with three or more “non‐nuclear” members have the lowest level of fertility.     

Determinants of current use of contraception and children ever born in Nepal

Abstract

This paper explores the extent to which women's work for earnings, education and couple communication over family planning influence current contraceptive use and children ever born in Nepal. Data came from the 1996 Nepal Family Health Survey. The findings indicate that education has a significant positive influence on current use of contraception and a significant negative influence on children ever born. There was virtually no relationship between women working and current use of contraception. However, in full models, there was a significant positive relationship for women who earn cash for work on current use and a significant negative relationship for children ever born. Working alone does not increase contraceptive use or reduce the number of children ever born in Nepal, but earning cash for work does. The husband/couple variables also proved to be important determinants of current use of contraception and children ever born.     

The theoretical and political framing of the population factor in development

The silence about population growth in recent decades has hindered the ability of those concerned with ecological change, resource scarcity, health and educational systems, national security, and other global challenges to look with maximum objectivity at the problems they confront. Two central questions about population—(i) is population growth a problem? and (2) what causes fertility decline?—are often intertwined; if people think the second question implies possible coercion, or fear of upsetting cultures, they can be reluctant to talk about the first. The classic and economic theories explaining the demographic transition assume that couples want many children and they make decisions to have a smaller family when some socio-economic change occurs. However, there are numerous anomalies to this explanation. This paper suggests that the societal changes are neither necessary nor sufficient for family size to fall. Many barriers of non-evidence-based restrictive medical rules, cost, misinformation and social traditions exist between women and the fertility regulation methods and correct information they need to manage their family size. When these barriers are reduced, birth rates tend to decline. Many of the barriers reflect a patriarchal desire to control women, which can be largely explained by evolutionary biology. The theoretical explanations of fertility should (i) attach more weight to the many barriers to voluntary fertility regulation, (ii) recognize that a latent desire to control fertility may be far more prevalent among women than previously understood, and (iii) appreciate that women implicitly and rationally make benefit–cost analyses based on the information they have, wanting modern family planning only after they understand it is a safe option. Once it is understood that fertility can be lowered by purely voluntary means, comfort with talking about the population factor in development will rise.     

Family planning among Japanese on public relief

Abstract

Two recurrent concepts in fertility literature permit prediction of an inverse relationship between social class and fertility. The commitment to familism refers to the degree that couples embrace a family‐centered style of life over a consumerist or careerist style of life. Commitment to individual children refers to the emotional and material involvement of parents in each child they have. Data show that commitment to individual children is negatively related to fertility, that social class is negatively related to commitment to familism, that social class is positively related to commitment to individual children, and that commitment to familism and commitment to individual children account for relationships between class and fertility.     

The effect of female education on marital fertility in different size communities of Mexico

Abstract

Based on a very large sample of married women aged 15 to 49 from the 1970 census of Mexico, the effect of literacy and education on the number of children ever born in different size communities is investigated. While cumulative marital fertility tends to be inversely related to community size, the overall shape of the education‐fertility relationship is generally similar in rural, semi‐urban, small urban, and large urban localities. These results combined with those for literacy do not support the hypothesis of an urbanization or a literacy “threshold” at which women's schooling begins to reduce family size.     

The pattern of reproductive life in a Berber population of morocco

Abstract

Reproductive patterns were studied from data collected in 1,450 Berber households in the province of Marrakesh, Morocco in 1984. Women aged 45–49 years had a mean of 8.9 pregnancies to achieve 5.7 living children. Social influences on fertility rates show the importance of tradition, particularly through time‐dependent variables such as age at marriage, waiting time to first birth, interbirth intervals, and duration of breastfeeding. Birth control does not appear to affect the tempo of fertility; rather, its main use is to bring the reproductive period to a close. The comparison of two subsamples of women separated by a 25‐year interval indicates an actual acceleration of the tempo of fertility by the reduction of waiting time to first birth and of interbirth intervals. The supposed ongoing process of demographic transition is not clearly observed in this population.     

Changes in contraceptive use and fertility: Panama, 1976 to 1984

Abstract

From 1976 to 1984 important demographic changes occurred in Panama. The total fertility rate declined from 4.5 to 3.7, and contraceptive use amongmarried women 20–44 years of age increased from 55 per cent to 63 per cent. However, using data from three national level reproductive health surveys which were conducted in Panama in 1976, 1979, and 1984, we found that most of the changes took place between 1976 and 1979. Since 1979, overall contraceptive use and fertility have remained virtually unchanged, although there has been an important method‐mix shift toward an increase in the use of contraceptive sterilization and IUD's, with an accompanying decline in the use of oral contraceptives. Although the singulate mean age at marriage remained relatively constant, the average duration of breastfeeding rose 23 per cent during the period. Further gains in contraceptive prevalence and reduction in unplanned fertility in Panama will largely depend on enhanced program efforts first begun in the early 1970's by the Panama Ministry of Health. Future program efforts especially should be directed toward encouraging young couples to space their children more effectively by using temporary methods of contraception.