Secular trends in incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China, 1990–2017: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundBladder cancer is closely related to occupational carcinogens, and China is undergoing a rapid industrialization. However, trend of bladder cancer incidence and mortality remains unknown in China.MethodsIncidence and mortality rates of bladder cancer (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group stratified by gender (males/females) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rates were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; age, period and cohort effects on incidence and mortality were simultaneously estimated by age-period-cohort model.ResultsThrough 1990–2017, age-standardized incidence rates significantly rose in men (AAPC = 0.72%, 95% CI: 0.5%, 0.9%) while decreased in women (-1.25%: -1.6%, -0.9%); age-standardized mortality rates decreased in both men (-1.09%: -1.2%, -0.9%) and women (-2.48%: -2.8%, -2.2%). The joinpoint regression analysis showed the mortality almost decreased in all age groups; while the incidence increased in men for older age groups (from 45 to 49 to 80–84). Moreover, age effect showed the incidence and mortality increased with age; the incidence and mortality increased with time period, while in women period effect stop decreasing and began to increase since 2007; cohort effect showed them decreased with birth cohorts.ConclusionsThe incidence of bladder cancer is increasing in men but mortality decreases in both sexes. Both the incidence and mortality in men substantially increase with age and period, while the rates in women increased with period since 2007. The period effect may indicate the increased risks to bladder cancer in Chinese men. Etiological studies are needed to identify the factors driving these trends of bladder cancer.     

A comparison of adiposity measures as predictors of all-cause mortality: the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

Objective: Our goal was to examine five different measures of adiposity as predictors of all‐cause mortality. Research Methods and Procedures: Subjects were 16,969 men and 24,344 women enrolled between 1990 and 1994 in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (27 to 75 years of age). There were 2822 deaths over a median follow‐up period of 11 years. BMI, waist circumference, and waist‐to‐hip ratio were obtained from direct anthropometric measurements. Fat mass and percentage fat were estimated by bioelectric impedance analysis. Results: Comparing the top quintile with the second quintile, for men there was an increased risk of between 20% and 30% for all‐cause mortality associated with each of the anthropometric measures. For women, there was an increased risk of 30% (95% confidence interval for hazard ratio, 1.1–1.6) observed for waist circumference and 50% (1.2–1.8) for waist‐to‐hip ratio, but little or no increased risk for BMI, fat mass, and percentage fat. Waist‐to‐hip ratio was positively and monotonically associated with all‐cause mortality for both men and women. There was a linear association between waist circumference and all‐cause mortality for men, whereas a U‐shaped association was observed for women. Discussion: Measures of central adiposity were better predictors of mortality in women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study compared with measures of overall adiposity. We recommend measuring waist and hip circumferences in population studies investigating the risk of all‐cause mortality associated with obesity. The use of additional measures such as bioelectric impedance is not justified for this outcome.     

Does Sex Affect 30-Day Mortality in Staphylococcus Aureus Bacteremia?

BackgroundSex-related differences in complications and mortality of infection were examined with conflicting results. Further studies are required to bring new light in this topic in Staphylococcus aureus infections.ObjectiveWe examined the outcomes of S. aureus infection in men and in women and whether sex-related differences were explained by underlying disorders, severity of disease, or clinical management.MethodsThis cohort study was conducted in a single center between 1988 and 2007. Patients with clinically significant S. aureus bacteremia were included. We compared 30-day all-cause mortality in men and women. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to test whether sex was independently associated with mortality.ResultsOne thousand ninety-three patients were identified with S. aureus bacteremia. All-cause mortality at day 30 was 39.3% (508 of 1293 patients): 44.8% (238 of 531 patients) in women and 35.4% (270 of 762 patients) in men (P < 0.01). In a multivariate analysis, female sex was associated with higher mortality (odds ratio = 1.63; 95% CI, 1.07–2.47). The excess mortality in women was not explained by differences in demographic characteristic factors, background conditions, infection severity and management, or septic complications.ConclusionsWe found that women with S. aureus bacteremia had a greater risk of 30-day all-cause mortality than men, even when adjusting for other risk factors. However, we failed to explain this excess of mortality.     

A Prospective Study of Adiposity and All‐Cause Mortality: The Malmö Diet and Cancer Study

Objective: This study aims to examine the association between various measures of adiposity and all‐cause mortality in Swedish middle‐aged and older men and women and, additionally, to describe the influences of age and sex on these associations. Research Methods and Procedures: A prospective analysis was performed in a cohort of 10,902 men and 16,814 women ages 45 to 73 years who participated in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study in Sweden. Baseline examinations took place between 1991 and 1996, and 982 deaths were documented during an average follow‐up of 5.7 years. All‐cause mortality was related to the following variables measured at baseline: body mass index (BMI), percentage of body fat, lean body mass (LBM), and waist‐to‐hip ratio (WHR), with adjustment for age and selected covariates. Body composition data were derived from bioelectrical impedance analysis. Results: The association between percentage of body fat and mortality was modified by age, particularly in women. For instance, fatness was associated with excess mortality in the younger women but with reduced mortality in the older women. Weaker associations were seen for BMI than for percentage of body fat in both sexes. Placement in the top quintiles of waist‐to‐hip ratio, independent of overall body fat, was a stronger predictor of mortality in women than in men. The observed associations could not be explained by bias from early death or antecedent disease. Discussion: The findings reveal sex and age differences for the effects of adiposity and WHR on mortality and indicate the importance of considering direct measures of adiposity, as opposed to BMI, when describing obesity‐related mortality risks.     

Physiological changes in successive pregnancies and birth‐order effects

Abstract

An analysis of mortality rates documents that the well‐established female advantage in mortality continues to increase. Data from the U.S. census show that the sex differential in mortality has increased from 1.69 in 1963 to 1.82 in 1976. The age groups which show the most pronounced changes are youth (15–24), young adults (25–34), and old persons (75–84). Following Enterline (1961), we assess the major causes of death within each of these age groups in terms of their relative contributions to changing sex ratios. The major factors among young persons, apart from declining maternal mortality, are found to involve violent deaths, especially traffic accidents and suicide. Among old persons, death rates in general have declined, but advances in medical technology appear to have been more beneficial for older women than for older men, supporting the hypothesis of a biological superiority among women. However, death rates for malignant neoplasms have increased for older women as well as older men, suggesting that changing life styles may eventually have an impact on female mortality. The data suggest a need for additional research concerning the increase in violent deaths among young women and the potential increase in cancer deaths among older women.     

Renal cell cancer in Israel: Sex and ethnic differences in incidence and mortality, 1980–2004

Background: The causes of renal cell cancer (RCC) remain largely unexplained. While the incidence is generally higher in men than in women, little has been reported on ethnic differences. We examine trends in RCC incidence and mortality rates among Israeli Arab and Jewish populations and compared with the rates in other countries. Methods: Age-adjusted RCC incidence and mortality rates in Israel, during 1980–2004, were calculated by sex and population group, using the National Cancer Registry. They were compared with the United States based on the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results [SEER] program and the IARC database for international comparisons. Results: While RCC incidence rates in Israel are similar to the United States and the European average, the rates are significantly higher among Israeli Jews than Arabs. Men are affected more than women. Incidence rates over the last 24 years have increased among all men and Jewish women, but not among Arab women. Among men, the incidence rate ratio for Jews to Arabs declined from 3.96 in 1980–1982 to 2.34 in 2001–2004, whereas for women there was no change. The mortality rates were higher among Jews than Arab and among men than women. There were no significant change in the mortality rates and rate ratios. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate marked ethnic differences in RCC in Israel. The lower incidence among Arabs stands in contrast to the higher prevalence of potential risk factors for RCC in this population group. Genetic factors, diet and other lifestyle factors could play protective roles.     

Low Testosterone Concentrations in Men Contribute to the Gender Gap in Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality

BackgroundAcross the industrialized world, men experience an earlier onset of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and a life expectancy 5 to 10 years shorter than women. Low total testosterone (TT) concentrations in men have been suggested as a novel CVD risk factor, but its contribution to this gender gap is less well studied.MethodsWe used data of 4152 individuals (2113 women and 2039 men) aged 20 to 79 years from the longitudinal population-based cohort Study of Health in Pomerania, Germany. Multivariable Poisson and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to investigate the risk of incident cardiovascular morbidity (5-year examination follow-up), as well as all-cause and CVD mortality (10-year follow-up) between men and women. Additionally, the added risk attributable to low TT in men (<10th percentile) was assessed.ResultsCompared with women, men were uniformly at higher risk of incident cardiovascular morbidity, including overweight, hypertension, dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Men were also at increased all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 2.05; 95% CI, 1.61–2.60) and 10-year CVD risk compared with women. In subgroup analyses, men with low TT showed the highest 10-year CVD and mortality risk compared with both men with higher TT and women. TT was also negatively associated with cardiovascular risk as defined by the Framingham risk score (P < 0.001), after multivariable adjustment.ConclusionsAnalyzing a large population-based sample, we observed that men have a generally higher risk of incident cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Furthermore, men with low TT concentrations were identified as high-risk individuals with regard to 10-year CVD and mortality risk.     

Trends in myeloma incidence,mortality and survival in New Zealand (1985–2016)

BackgroundMyeloma, one of the most common haematological malignancies worldwide arises in the bone marrow. Incidence rates vary by age and ethnicity but reasons behind these trends are unknown. Treatment of myeloma has changed significantly over recent decades, resulting in longer survival and decreased mortality.MethodsFrom data supplied by the Ministry of Health, all new registrations of and deaths from myeloma between 1985 and 2016 were extracted. Trends in age-specific rates were assessed using the method of Armitage. Age-standardised rates were calculated, and trends in age-adjusted rates analysed using the Mantel-Haenszel extension chi-square test. Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rate ratios were calculated. Myeloma-specific survival was visualised using Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable hazard ratios calculated using Cox regression.ResultsBetween 1985 and 2016, 7826 New Zealanders were registered with myeloma. Over this time the age-specific incidence of myeloma increased significantly for men, who had higher rates than women. Myeloma mortality was highest in Maori men. Men had higher mortality rates than women in all time periods. Since 1995–1999, mortality has decreased in women whereas in men it has declined since about 2000–2004. Survival has increased significantly since 1990 but Maori still have a higher risk of death than non-Maori.ConclusionThe patterns of variation in myeloma incidence, mortality and survival, as well as their trends over time may be used to assist research into the causes and management of myeloma in New Zealand.     

Peritoneal mesothelioma mortality in Italy: Spatial analysis and search for asbestos exposure sources

BackgroundThis study is part of a national plan of epidemiological surveillance of malignant mesothelioma (MM) mortality in Italy. The paper shows the results of malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) mortality study in Italian Regions and municipalities.MethodsNational Bureau of Statistics data for MPeM municipal mortality (ICD-10, Code C45.1) were analyzed in the time-window 2003–2014: mortality standardized rates (reference Italian population, census 2011), temporal trends of the annual national rates, Standardized Mortality Ratios and a municipal clustering analysis were performed.Results747 deaths for MPeM were recorded (0.10/100,000): 464 in men (0.14/100,000) and in 283 women (0.07/100,000). No significant MPeM mortality temporal trend was found.Seventeen municipalities showed excesses of mortality for MPeM in at least one gender and/or overall population.Four clusters in male population, and one in women were identified.ConclusionsThe study identifies some areas where remediation activities and/or health care actions may be warranted.     

Increased Medical Costs in Elders With the Metabolic Syndrome are Most Evident With Hospitalization of Men

BackgroundLittle is known about health care costs associated with the metabolic syndrome (MetS).ObjectiveWe assessed annualized health care costs and health outcomes for both genders in different health care settings among representative Taiwanese elders.MethodsThe Nutrition and Health Survey in Taiwan (1999–2000) provided 1378 individuals aged 65 years or older with known MetS status. Nutrition and Health Survey in Taiwan files were linked to National Health Insurance records (1999–2006). Student t tests and multiple regression models were used to assess expenditures in total and in 6 services: inpatient, ambulatory care, dental care, traditional Chinese medicine, emergency care, and contracted pharmacy. The Cox model was used to assess gender effect on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas logistic regression was used for that on cardiovascular disease hospitalization. The 5 MetS component costs were evaluated by multiple regressions.ResultsMetS affected 29% of men and 48% of women. After full adjustment, those with MetS had 1.30 (95% CI, 1.11–1.52), men had 1.43 (95% CI, 1.20–1.70), and women had 1.19 (95% CI, 0.93–1.52) times higher costs than those without MetS. Compared with no MetS, MetS costs were increased 2.94-fold for inpatient care (95% CI, 1.23–7.10) and 1.30-fold for ambulatory care for men (95% CI, 1.12–1.52), whereas ambulatory MetS costs were increased 1.28-fold for women (95% CI, 1.05–1.57). MetS was associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease hospitalization in men (adjusted odds ratio, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.20–2.58) but not in women (adjusted odds ratio, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.67–1.75). Among those with MetS, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were comparable between men and women. Of the MetS components, low HDL cholesterol had the greatest affect on costs, more so in men (2.23-fold) than women (1.58-fold).ConclusionsIn people with MetS, service costs were greater overall, significantly for men, but not women, and these increased costs were evident for men who experienced hospitalization, but not women. At the same time, cardiovascular and all-cause mortalities were not significantly different by gender in regard to MetS in Taiwanese elders.     

Increasing Gap Between Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Urban Shanghai,China: An Analysis Spanning 43 Years

ObjectiveTo examine the secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality and to estimate the proportion of thyroid cancer cases potentially attributable to overdiagnosis.MethodsData on thyroid cancer cases from 1973 to 2015 were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression analysis. The age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed using an age-period-cohort model. The overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer cases was estimated based on the difference between observed and expected incidences using the rates of Nordic countries as reference.ResultsFrom 1973 to 2015, the number of thyroid cancer cases was 23 117, and 75% of the patients were women. The age-standardized rates were seven- to eightfold higher from 2013 to 2015 than from 1973 to 1977. Compared with relatively stable mortality, thyroid cancer incidence was dramatically increased from 2002 to 2015 in both sexes, with significant trends (men: AAPC = 21.84%, 95% CI: 18.77%-24.98%, P < .001; women: AAPC = 18.55%, 95% CI: 16.49%-20.64%, P < .001). The proportion of overdiagnosis has gradually increased over time, rising from 68% between 2003 and 2007 to more than 90% between 2013 and 2015. This increasing trend appeared to be similar between men and women.ConclusionAn increasing gap between thyroid cancer incidence and mortality was observed in Shanghai, and overdiagnosis has contributed substantially to the rise of incidence, which calls for an urgent update on the practice of thyroid examination.     

Distribution of cancer mortality rates by province in South Africa

IntroductionCancer mortality rates are expected to increase in developing countries. Cancer mortality rates by province remain largely unreported in South Africa. This study described the 2014 age standardised cancer mortality rates by province in South Africa, to provide insight for strategic interventions and advocacy.Methods2014 deaths data were retrieved from Statistics South Africa. Deaths from cancer were extracted using 10th International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for cancer (C00-C97). Adjusted 2013 mid-year population estimates were used as a standard population. All rates were calculated per 100 000 individuals.ResultsNearly 38 000 (8%) of the total deaths in South Africa in 2014 were attributed to cancer. Western Cape Province had the highest age standardised cancer mortality rate in South Africa (118, 95% CI: 115–121 deaths per 100 000 individuals), followed by the Northern Cape (113, 95% CI: 107–119 per 100 000 individuals), with the lowest rate in Limpopo Province (47, 95% CI: 45–49 per 100 000). The age standardised cancer mortality rate for men (71, 95% CI: 70–72 per 100 000 individuals) was similar to women (69, 95% CI: 68–70 per 100 000). Lung cancer was a major driver of cancer death in men (13, 95% CI: 12.6–13.4 per 100 000). In women, cervical cancer was the leading cause of cancer death (13, 95% CI: 12.6–13.4 per 100 000 individuals).ConclusionThere is a need to further investigate the factors related to the differences in cancer mortality by province in South Africa. Raising awareness of risk factors and screening for cancer in the population along with improved access and quality of health care are also important.     

Sex-specific difference in the interconversion of cortisol and cortisone in men and women

Objective: Our objective was to demonstrate that the smaller oxoreductase activity of 11β‐HSD1 in women would shift the interconversion of cortisol and cortisone toward cortisone, resulting in a larger amount of generated labeled cortisone in healthy women than in healthy men. Research Methods and Procedures: Using mass spectrometry, the amount of cortisone generated from a continuous infusion (8 am to 6 pm ) of stable‐labeled cortisol (1α,2α‐d‐cortisol) was determined in non‐obese and in obese (BMI >35 kg/m²) men and women during steady‐state conditions (from 2 pm to 6 pm ). In this setting, the amount of generated labeled cortisone (expressed as % of the achieved steady‐state concentrations of labeled cortisol) reflects the sum of the bi‐directional conversion of cortisol into cortisone (and vice versa) by 11β‐hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase. Results: The amount of generated labeled cortisone was higher in men than in women (p < 0.0001). This sex difference was higher in obese than in non‐obese patients (p = 0.0062). Conclusions: The interconversion of cortisol and cortisone during steady‐state conditions is shifted toward cortisol in men as compared with women. This suggests a higher overall oxoreductase activity of 11β‐hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 in men than in women. This sex‐specific difference is maintained in obesity.     

Comparison of Overall Obesity and Body Fat Distribution in Predicting Risk of Mortality

Results of studies comparing overall obesity and abdominal adiposity or body fat distribution with risk of mortality have varied considerably. We compared the relative importance and joint association of overall obesity and body fat distribution in predicting risk of mortality. Participants included 5,799 men and 6,429 women aged 30–102 years enrolled in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey who completed a baseline health examination during 1988–1994. During a 12‐year follow‐up (102,172 person‐years), 1,188 men and 925 women died. In multivariable‐adjusted analyses, waist‐to‐thigh ratio (WTR) in both sexes (P_trend <0.01 for both) and waist‐to‐hip ratio (WHR) in women (P_trend 0.001) were positively associated with mortality in middle‐aged adults (30–64 years), while BMI and waist circumference (WC) exhibited U‐ or J‐shaped associations. Risk of mortality increased with a higher WHR and WTR among normal weight (BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m²) and obese (BMI ≥30.0 kg/m²) adults. In older adults (65–102 years), a higher BMI in both sexes (P_trend <0.05) and WC in men (P_trend 0.001) were associated with increased survival, while remaining measures of body fat distribution exhibited either no association or an inverse relation with mortality. In conclusion, ratio measures of body fat distribution are strongly and positively associated with mortality and offer additional prognostic information beyond BMI and WC in middle‐aged adults. A higher BMI in both sexes and WC in men were associated with increased survival in older adults, while a higher WHR or WTR either decreased or did not influence risk of death.     

Sex matters: secular and geographical trends in sex differences in coronary heart disease mortality

ObjectiveTo examine secular trends and geographical variations in sex differences in mortality from coronary heart disease and investigate how these relate to distributions in risk factors.Design National and international data were used to examine secular trends and geographical variations in sex differences in mortality from coronary heart disease and risk factors.SettingEngland and Wales, 1921-98; Australia, France, Japan, Sweden, and the United States, 1947-97; 50 countries, 1992-6.ResultsThe 20th century epidemic of coronary heart disease affected only men in most industrialised countries and had a very rapid onset in England and Wales, which has been examined in detail. If this male only epidemic had not occurred there would have been 1.2 million fewer deaths from coronary heart disease in men in England and Wales over the past 50 years. Secular trends in mean per capita fat consumption show a similar pattern to secular trends in coronary heart disease mortality in men. Fat consumption is positively correlated with coronary heart disease mortality in men (r_s=0.79; 95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.86) and inversely associated with coronary heart disease mortality in women (−0.30; −0.49 to −0.08) over this time. Although sex ratios for mortality from coronary heart disease show a clear period effect, those for lung cancer show a cohort effect. Sex ratios for stroke mortality were constant and close to unity for the entire period. Geographical variations in the sex ratio for coronary heart disease were associated with mean per capita fat consumption (0.64; 0.44 to 0.78) but were not associated with the sex ratio for smoking.ConclusionSex differences are largely the result of environmental factors and hence not inevitable. Understanding the factors that determine sex differences has important implications for public health, particularly for countries and parts of countries where the death rates for coronary heart disease are currently increasing.

What is already known on this topic

Mortality for coronary heart disease is greater in men than women in most industrialised countriesThe most widely accepted explanation for this difference is that women are protected by oestrogen

What this study adds

The sex difference in mortality from coronary heart disease varies over time and between countries in a way that cannot be explained by endogenous oestrogenThese trends indicate that sex differences in mortality from coronary heart disease are driven primarily by environmental factorsSex differences in coronary heart disease are not inevitableUnderstanding more about the factors that cause the sex differences in mortality from coronary heart disease has important public health implications     

National cancer incidence is estimated using the incidence/mortality ratio in countries with local incidence data: Is this estimation correct?

BackgroundIn countries with local cancer registration, the national cancer incidence is usually estimated by multiplying the national mortality by the incidence/mortality (I/M) ratio from pooled registries. This study aims at validating this I/M estimation in France, by a comparison with estimation obtained using the ratio of incidence over hospital discharge (I/HD) or the ratio of incidence over health insurance data (long-duration diseases, I/LDD).MethodsThis comparison was performed for 22 cancer sites over the period 2004–2006. In France, a longitudinal I/M approach was developed relying on incidence and mortality trend analyses; here, the corresponding estimations of national incidence were extracted for 2004–2006. The I/HD and I/LDD estimations were performed using a common cross-sectional methodology.ResultsThe three estimations were found similar for most cancers. The relative differences in incidence rates (vs. I/M) were below 5% for numerous cancers and below 10% for all cancers but three. The highest differences were observed for thyroid cancer (up to +21% in women and +8% in men), skin melanoma (up to +13% in women and +8% in men), and Hodgkin disease in men (up to +15%). Differences were also observed in women aged over 60 for cervical cancer. Except for thyroid cancer, differences were mainly due to the smoothing performed in the I/M approach.ConclusionOur results support the validity of I/M approaches for national estimations, except for thyroid cancer. The longitudinal version of this approach has, furthermore, the advantage of providing smoothed estimations and trend analyses, including useful birth-cohort indicators, and should thus be preferred.     

Alcohol consumption and mortality: modelling risks for men and women at different ages

ObjectiveTo estimate the relation between alcohol consumption and risk of death, the level of alcohol consumption at which risk is least, and how these vary with age and sex.DesignAnalysis using published systematic reviews and population data.SettingEngland and Wales in 1997.ResultsA direct dose-response relation exists between alcohol consumption and risk of death in women aged 16-54 and in men aged 16-34. At older ages the relation is U shaped. The level at which the risk is lowest increases with age, reaching 3 units a week in women aged over 65 and 8 units a week in men aged over 65. The level at which the risk is increased by 5% above this minimum is 8 units a week in women aged 16-24 and 5 units a week in men aged 16-24, increasing to 20 and 34 units a week in women and men aged over 65, respectively.ConclusionsSubstantially increased risks of all cause mortality can occur even in people drinking lower than recommended limits, and especially among younger people.

What is already known on this topic

Non-drinkers and heavy drinkers have higher all cause mortality rates than light drinkers—the U shaped curveThe precise shape and location of the U are likely to depend on age and sex, but this has not been quantified

What this study adds

The level of alcohol consumption that carries the lowest mortality ranges from 0 in men and women aged under 35 to 3 units a week in women aged over 65 and 8 units a week in men aged over 65The level of alcohol consumption that carries a 5% increase in mortality increases with age from 8 to 20 units a week in women and from 5 to 34 units a week in menOur calculations were for England and Wales in 1997: nadirs are likely to be lower in the future and in countries with less ischaemic heart disease     

Body Mass Index and Mortality among Korean Elderly in Rural Communities: Kangwha Cohort Study

BackgroundThe relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality may differ by ethnicity, but its exact nature remains unclear among Koreans. The study aim was to prospectively examine the association between BMI and mortality in Korean.Methods6166 residents (2636 men; 3530 women) of rural communities (Kangwha County, Republic of Korea) aged 55 and above were followed up for deaths from 1985–2008. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsDuring the 23.8 years of follow-up (an average of 12.5 years in men and 15.7 years in women), 2174 men and 2372 women died. Men with BMI of 21.0–27.4 and women with BMI of 20.0–27.4 had a minimal risk for all-cause mortality. A lower BMI as well as a higher BMI increased the hazard ratio of death. For example, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios associated with BMI below 16, and with BMI of 27.5 and above, were 2.4 (95% CI = 1.6–3.5) and 1.5 (95% CI = 1.1–1.9) respectively, in men, compared to those with BMI of 23.0–24.9. This reverse J-curve association was maintained among never smokers, and among people with no known chronic diseases. Higher BMI increased vascular mortality, while lower BMI increased deaths from vascular diseases, cancers, and, especially, respiratory diseases. Except for cancers, these associations were generally weaker in women than in men.ConclusionsA reverse J-curve association between BMI and all-cause mortality may exist. BMI of 21–27.4 (rather than the range suggested by WHO of 18.5–23 for Asians) may be considered a normal range with acceptable risk in Koreans aged 55 and above, and may be used as cut points for interventions. More concern should be given to people with BMI above and below a BMI range with acceptable risk. Further studies are needed to determine ethnicity-specific associations.     

All-cause and cause-specific mortality during and following incarceration in Brazil: A retrospective cohort study

BackgroundMortality during and after incarceration is poorly understood in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The need to address this knowledge gap is especially urgent in South America, which has the fastest growing prison population in the world. In Brazil, insufficient data have precluded our understanding of all-cause and cause-specific mortality during and after incarceration.Methods and findingsWe linked incarceration and mortality databases for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul to obtain a retrospective cohort of 114,751 individuals with recent incarceration. Between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018, we identified 3,127 deaths of individuals with recent incarceration (705 in detention and 2,422 following release). We analyzed age-standardized, all-cause, and cause-specific mortality rates among individuals detained in different facility types and following release, compared to non-incarcerated residents. We additionally modeled mortality rates over time during and after incarceration for all causes of death, violence, or suicide. Deaths in custody were 2.2 times the number reported by the national prison administration (n = 317). Incarcerated men and boys experienced elevated mortality, compared with the non-incarcerated population, due to increased risk of death from violence, suicide, and communicable diseases, with the highest standardized incidence rate ratio (IRR) in semi-open prisons (2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0 to 2.8), police stations (3.1; 95% CI: 2.5 to 3.9), and youth detention (8.1; 95% CI: 5.9 to 10.8). Incarcerated women experienced increased mortality from suicide (IRR = 6.0, 95% CI: 1.2 to 17.7) and communicable diseases (IRR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.1 to 5.0). Following release from prison, mortality was markedly elevated for men (IRR = 3.0; 95% CI: 2.8 to 3.1) and women (IRR = 2.4; 95% CI: 2.1 to 2.9). The risk of violent death and suicide was highest immediately post-release and declined over time; however, all-cause mortality remained elevated 8 years post-release. The limitations of this study include inability to establish causality, uncertain reliability of data during incarceration, and underestimation of mortality rates due to imperfect database linkage.ConclusionsIncarcerated individuals in Brazil experienced increased mortality from violence, suicide, and communicable diseases. Mortality was heightened following release for all leading causes of death, with particularly high risk of early violent death and elevated all-cause mortality up to 8 years post-release. These disparities may have been underrecognized in Brazil due to underreporting and insufficient data.

In a retrospective cohort study, Yiran E Liu and colleagues investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality during and following incarceration in Brazil.     

Relationships in Canada between mortality from tumours of the gastrointestinal tract and marital status.

The mortality from tumours of the gastrointestinal tract in the Canadian population in 1970-72 was 16% higher in single than in married men (on the basis of age-adjusted rates), 25% higher in widowed men and 28% higher in divorced men. All these differences were unlikely to be due to chance. The rates were 4% higher for single women, 14% higher for widows and 22% higher for divorced women, compared with the married. The differences for single and divorced women were not significant. Substantial excess mortality was found in the unmarried for tumours of the mouth, pharynx and esophagus, and rectum; for tumours of the stomach and colon the excess was small or nonexistent. This variation between sites suggests that systematic errors in the census data used as denominators are not responsible for the high mortality for the unmarried from certain tumours. The effect is found in conditions for which treatment can have made little difference (e.g., a 75% excess mortality for tumours of the esophagus in single men compared with married) and in conditions for which differences in the use of medical facilities may have been important (e.g., a 44% excess mortality for tumours of the rectum in widowers).