Trend (1999–2009) in U.S. death rates from myelodysplastic syndromes: Utility of multiple causes of death in surveillance

BackgroundFor myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) (formerly known as preleukemia), a diverse group of myeloid neoplasms usually involving anemia in elderly persons, trends in U.S. death rates apparently have not been reported.MethodsTrends in annual age-standardized rates per 100,000 from 1999 to 2009 were examined for MDS using multiple causes vs. underlying cause alone, coded on death certificates for U.S. residents.ResultsThe death rate (all ages combined) for MDS increased from 1999 to 2009, from 1.62 to 1.84 using underlying cause alone and from 2.89 to 3.27 using multiple causes. Rates using multiple causes were about 80% higher than those based on underlying cause alone. From 2001 to 2004 the rate for MDS using underlying cause alone (but not using multiple causes) declined, accompanied by an increase in the rate for deaths from leukemia as underlying cause with mention of MDS; this trend coincided with the advent of the 2001 World Health Organization's reclassification of certain MDS as leukemia. The MDS rate for age 65+ years increased after 2005, whereas the rate for age 25–64 years was low but declined from 2001 to 2003 and then stabilized. For deaths with MDS coded as other than underlying cause, rates did not decline for deaths from each of the two most common causes (i.e., cardiovascular diseases and leukemia).ConclusionsEvidence for decreases in MDS-related mortality rates was limited; the increase at age 65+ years is consistent with increases in incidence rates reported from cancer registries. Using multiple causes of death vs. only the underlying cause results in substantially higher MDS-related death rates, shows the impact of changes in the classification of myeloid neoplasms and emphasizes the importance of reducing cardiovascular disease mortality in MDS patients.     

Decline of tuberculosis mortality in an urban Mexican‐origin population, 1935–1984

Abstract

Through a series of life table analyses, this paper describes the natural history of tuberculosis mortality in a Mexican‐origin community over five decades (1935–84) during which the disease underwent a transition from a major underlying cause of death to a disease conditioned mentioned more often on death certificates as contributing to death than causing death. The decline in death rates from 1940 to 1950 was especially remarkable. Successive birth cohorts of Mexican Americans, separated by as little as five years of age, experienced distinctly lower risk of death from tuberculosis as they entered young adulthood. There was a rapid convergence in age‐specific patterns of tuberculosis death rates in Mexican Americans toward those of non‐Hispanic whites, so that by 1960 tuberculosis was primarily a cause of death in old age rather than young adulthood. The impact of changing environment, both through improvements of conditions within neighborhoods and through residential mobility, on birth cohorts at risk of tuberculosis needs to be examined in further research.     

Extending epidemiologic transition theory: A new stage

Abstract

The epidemiologic transition theory focuses on the changing patterns of morbidity and mortality and postulates that mortality by cause will evolve from a predominance of acute and infectious diseases to a predominance of chronic and degenerative diseases. The epidemiologic transition theory comprises three stages: the age of pestilence and famine (lasting until 1875), receding pandemics (from 1875 to 1930), and degenerative and man‐made diseases (from 1930 to the present). Recent information suggests that developed societies have entered a new stage in the transition. This fourth stage, which we term the hybristic stage, is increasingly influenced by individual behaviors and life‐styles. In this paper, we examine the epidemiologic transition theory, substantiate the need for a new stage, and discuss current cause‐specific trends in mortality and the social and demographic implications of such trends.     

Recent decline in the U.S. death rate from myeloproliferative neoplasms, 1999-2006

Background: Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are classified as neoplasms of uncertain or unknown behavior in the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) Version 10 and can contribute to risk of death from complications (especially thrombosis). Methods: U.S age-standardized death rates using ICD-Version 10 codes relevant to classical MPN (i.e., polycythemia vera, essential thrombocythemia, and “chronic myeloproliferative disease”) were examined for 1999–2006. The underlying cause of death and also all causes (“multiple causes” or “mentions”) coded on death certificates were considered. Trends were assessed by using percentage change (PC) in rate between 1999 and 2006, and annual percentage change (APC) estimated from linear regression. Results: The decline in death rates was large for MPN, whether based only the underlying cause (PC = ?19.7%, APC = ?3.4%) or on the substantially higher rates based on any cause (PC = ?24.1%, APC = ?3.8%), and was consistent by gender and age group (<65 and 65+ years). For deaths with MPN coded as other than the underlying cause, cardiovascular diseases were the most common underlying cause and the ASR for these deaths declined substantially (PC = ?40.0%). Conclusions: Use of the underlying cause of death in surveillance will considerably underestimate MPN-related mortality rates in the population. Studies are needed on treatment in random samples of MPN patients from population-based cancer registries. Continued surveillance of MPN-related mortality rates in the population is needed in view of recent attempts (including the use of aspirin) to control cardiovascular complications of MPN.     

Trends in mortality among California physicians after giving up smoking: 1950-79.

A study was conducted to assess how lung cancer and other mortality trends among California physicians had been influenced by the high proportion who had given up smoking since 1950. Several sample surveys indicated that the proportion of California physicians who currently smoked cigarettes had declined dramatically from about 53% in 1950 to about 10% in 1980. During the same period the proportion of other American men who smoked cigarettes had declined only modestly, from about 53% to 38%. Using the 1950 American Medical Directory a cohort of 10 130 California male physicians was established and followed up for mortality till the end of 1979, during which time 5090 died. The information from follow up and death certification was exceptionally good. The standardised mortality ratio for lung cancer among California male physicians relative to American white men declined from 62 in 1950-9 to 30 in 1970-9. The corresponding decline in standardised mortality ratio was from 100 to 63 for other smoking related cancer, from 106 to 71 for ischaemic heart disease, and from 62 to 35 for bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma. The standardised mortality ratio remained relatively constant for other causes of death not strongly related to smoking. The overall ratio declined in all age groups at a rate of about 1% a year. The total death rate among all physicians converged towards the rate among non-smoking physicians. By the end of the study period physicians had a cancer rate and total death rate similar to or less than those among typical United States non-smokers. This "natural experiment" shows that lung cancer became relatively less common on substantial elimination of the primary causal factor, cigarette smoking. Other smoking related diseases also became relatively less common, though factors other than cigarette smoking may have contributed to this change.     

Cancer epidemiology in the small nations of Pacific Islands

BackgroundPacific island countries and territories (PICTs) comprise 20,000–30,000 islands in the Pacific Ocean. PICTs face challenges in relation to small population sizes, geographic dispersion, increasing adoption of unhealthy life-styles and the burden of both communicable and non-communicable diseases, including cancer. This study reviews data on cancer incidence and mortality in the PICTs, with special focus on indigenous populations.MethodsPICTs with populations of <1.5 million (‘small nations’) were included in this study. Information on cancer incidence and mortality was extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2012 database. Scientific and grey literature was narratively reviewed for publications published after 2000.ResultsOf the 21 PICTs, seven countries were included in the GLOBOCAN 2012 (Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu). The highest cancer incidence and mortality rates were reported in New Caledonia (age-standardized incidence and mortality rates 297.9 and 127.3 per 100.000) and French Polynesia (age-standardized incidence and mortality rates 255.0 and 134.4 per 100.000), with relatively low rates in other countries. Literature indicated that cancer was among the leading causes of deaths in most PICTs; thus they now experience a double burden of cancers linked to infections and life-style and reproductive factors. Further, ethnic differences in cancer incidence and mortality have been reported in some PICTs, including Fiji, Guam, New Caledonia and Northern Mariana Islands.ConclusionCancer incidence in the PICTs was recorded to be relatively low, with New Caledonia and French Polynesia being exceptions. Low recorded incidence is likely to be explained by incomplete cancer registration as cancer had an important contribution to mortality. Further endeavors are needed to develop and strengthen cancer registration infrastructure and practices and to improve data quality and registration coverage in the PICTs.     

Leading Causes of Death among Asian American Subgroups (2003–2011)

Background

Our current understanding of Asian American mortality patterns has been distorted by the historical aggregation of diverse Asian subgroups on death certificates, masking important differences in the leading causes of death across subgroups. In this analysis, we aim to fill an important knowledge gap in Asian American health by reporting leading causes of mortality by disaggregated Asian American subgroups.

Methods and Findings

We examined national mortality records for the six largest Asian subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese) and non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs) from 2003-2011, and ranked the leading causes of death. We calculated all-cause and cause-specific age-adjusted rates, temporal trends with annual percent changes, and rate ratios by race/ethnicity and sex. Rankings revealed that as an aggregated group, cancer was the leading cause of death for Asian Americans. When disaggregated, there was notable heterogeneity. Among women, cancer was the leading cause of death for every group except Asian Indians. In men, cancer was the leading cause of death among Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese men, while heart disease was the leading cause of death among Asian Indians, Filipino and Japanese men. The proportion of death due to heart disease for Asian Indian males was nearly double that of cancer (31% vs. 18%). Temporal trends showed increased mortality of cancer and diabetes in Asian Indians and Vietnamese; increased stroke mortality in Asian Indians; increased suicide mortality in Koreans; and increased mortality from Alzheimer’s disease for all racial/ethnic groups from 2003-2011. All-cause rate ratios revealed that overall mortality is lower in Asian Americans compared to NHWs.

Conclusions

Our findings show heterogeneity in the leading causes of death among Asian American subgroups. Additional research should focus on culturally competent and cost-effective approaches to prevent and treat specific diseases among these growing diverse populations.     

Mormon mortality rates in Canada

Abstract

In the United States, Mormons have been shown to have lower incidence and mortality rates of cancer and other diseases than the general population, a fact which has been attributed to the life style prescribed by the Mormon Church, including abstinence from tobacco, alcohol, coffee, and tea. This study examines Mormon cause‐specific mortality rates in Alberta, Canada, compared to rates for the general population of Alberta and of all Canada. Mormon death rates for most causes were lower than those for Alberta, which are themselves lower than Canadian rates. Mormon death rates for males were higher than for females for most causes, but male and female death rates were more similar among Mormons than in the general population. Causes of death for which Mormons have an average or higher than average risk are either less frequent causes or are less clearly related to dietary habits. Mormons have disproportionately low death rates for many causes which are not clearly related to the use of tobacco, alcohol, coffee, or tea. Further research is needed on the specific effects of different life‐style components and on the possible biological selectivity of the group.     

Reservation and non‐reservation American Indian mortality in 1970 and 1978

Abstract

Mortality rates by age and sex of American Indians living in reservation and non‐reservation counties were compared for 1970 and 1978. An apparent overcount in the 1980 census enumeration of American Indians curtails rigorous comparisons, but broad differences can be delineated. The main improvement in American Indian mortality during the decade was in age group 0–4. In 1970, non‐reservation death rates were not different from reservation rates. By the end of the decade, non‐reservation death rates had diverged downward from reservation deaths. An analysis of 1978 death rates by poverty status showed that non‐reservation death rates are sensitive to county poverty level, whereas reservation death rates are not.     

HIV and Hepatitis C Mortality in Massachusetts, 2002–2011: Spatial Cluster and Trend Analysis of HIV and HCV Using Multiple Cause of Death

Background

Infectious diseases, while associated with a much smaller proportion of deaths than they were 50 years ago, still play a significant role in mortality across the state of Massachusetts. Most analysis of infectious disease mortality in the state only take into account the underlying cause of death, rather than contributing causes of death, which may not capture the full extent of mortality trends for infectious diseases such as HIV and the Hepatitis C virus (HCV).

Methods

In this study we sought to evaluate current trends in infectious disease mortality across the state using a multiple cause of death methodology. We performed a mortality trend analysis, identified spatial clusters of disease using a 5-step geoprocessing approach and examined spatial-temporal clustering trends in infectious disease mortality in Massachusetts from 2002–2011, with a focus on HIV/AIDS and HCV.

Results

Significant clusters of high infectious disease mortality in space and time throughout the state were detected through both spatial and space time cluster analysis. The most significant clusters occurred in Springfield, Worcester, South Boston, the Merrimack Valley, and New Bedford with other smaller clusters detected across the state. Multiple cause of death mortality rates were much higher than underlying cause mortality alone, and significant disparities existed across race and age groups.

Conclusions

We found that our multi-method analyses, which focused on contributing causes of death, were more robust than analyses that focused on underlying cause of death alone. Our results may be used to inform public health resource allocation for infectious disease prevention and treatment programs, provide novel insight into the current state of infectious disease mortality throughout the state, and benefited from approaches that may more accurately document mortality trends.     

Canadian Indian mortality during the 1980s

Abstract

This study concerns itself with an investigation of general and cause‐specific mortality differentials between Canadian Registered Indians (a subset of all aboriginals) and the larger Canadian population over two points in time, 1981 and 1991. Multivariate analyses are executed separately across four segments of the life cycle: adulthood, infancy, early childhood and late childhood. With respect to adults, Indians share relatively high rates of suicide, homicide and accidental causes of death; over time, their conditional risks of death due to cancer and circulatory afflictions have gone up significantly. Mortality disadvantages for the Indians are also pronounced in infancy, early childhood (ages 1–4) and late childhood (ages 5–14). Suicide, accidents, and violence constitute serious problems among 5–14 year olds, while infectious/parasitic, respiratory and circulatory complications, plus accidents and violence, are principle killers in infancy. For children aged 1–4, respiratory problems and accidents/violence are prime causes of premature death. This less‐than‐optimal mortality profile is reflective of persistent problems associated with prolonged socioeconomic marginalization. The temporal pattern of change in chronic/degenerative disease mortality among adult Indians suggests a movement of this population toward a mature stage of epidemiological transition.     

Utero-vaginal aplasia (Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome) associated with deletions in known DiGeorge or DiGeorge-like loci

Background

Persons affected by neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) have a decreased survival, yet information on NF1-associated mortality is limited.

Methods/Aim

The National Mortality Database and individual Multiple-Causes-of-Death records were used to estimate NF1-associated mortality in Italy in the period 1995-2006, to compare the distribution of age at death (as a proxy of survival) to that of the general population and to evaluate the relation between NF1 and other medical conditions by determining whether the distribution of underlying causes of NF1-associated deaths differs from that of general population.

Results

Of the nearly 6.75 million deaths in the study period, 632 had a diagnosis of NF1, yet for nearly three-fourths of them the underlying cause was not coded as neurofibromatosis. The age distribution showed that NF1-associated deaths also occurred among the elderly, though mortality in early ages was high. The mean age for NF1-associated death was approximately 20 years lower than that for the general population. The gender differential may suggest that women are affected by more severe NF1-related complications, or they may simply reflect a greater tendency for NF1 to be reported on the death certificates of young women. Regarding the relation with other medical conditions, we found an excess, as the underlying cause of death, for malignant neoplasm of connective and other soft tissue and brain, but not for other sites. We also found an excess for obstructive chronic bronchitis and musculoskeletal system diseases among elderly persons.

Conclusion

This is the first nationally representative population-based study on NF1-associated mortality in Italy. It stresses the importance of the Multiple-Causes-of-Death Database in providing a more complete picture of mortality for conditions that are frequently not recorded as the underlying cause of death, or to study complex chronic diseases or diseases that have no specific International Classification of Diseases code, such as NF1. It also highlights the usefulness of already available data when a surveillance system is not fully operational.     

Rheumatic Heart Disease-Attributable Mortality at Ages 5–69 Years in Fiji: A Five-Year,National, Population-Based Record-Linkage Cohort Study

BackgroundRheumatic heart disease (RHD) is considered a major public health problem in developing countries, although scarce data are available to substantiate this. Here we quantify mortality from RHD in Fiji during 2008–2012 in people aged 5–69 years.ConclusionsRheumatic heart disease is a leading cause of premature death as well as an important economic burden in this setting. Age-standardised death rates are more than twice those reported in current global estimates. Linkage of routine data provides an efficient tool to better define the epidemiology of neglected diseases.     

The FoxO3 gene and cause‐specific mortality

The G allele of the FOXO3 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs2802292 exhibits a consistently replicated genetic association with longevity in multiple populations worldwide. The aims of this study were to quantify the mortality risk for the longevity‐associated genotype and to discover the particular cause(s) of death associated with this allele in older Americans of diverse ancestry. It involved a 17‐year prospective cohort study of 3584 older American men of Japanese ancestry from the Honolulu Heart Program cohort, followed by a 17‐year prospective replication study of 1595 white and 1056 black elderly individuals from the Health Aging and Body Composition cohort. The relation between FOXO3 genotype and cause‐specific mortality was ascertained for major causes of death including coronary heart disease (CHD), cancer, and stroke. Age‐adjusted and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for all‐cause and cause‐specific mortality. We found G allele carriers had a combined (Japanese, white, and black populations) risk reduction of 10% for total (all‐cause) mortality (HR = 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84–0.95; P = 0.001). This effect size was consistent across populations and mostly contributed by 26% lower risk for CHD death (HR = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.64–0.86; P = 0.00004). No other causes of death made a significant contribution to the survival advantage for G allele carriers. In conclusion, at older age, there is a large risk reduction in mortality for G allele carriers, mostly due to lower CHD mortality. The findings support further research on FOXO3 and FoxO3 protein as potential targets for therapeutic intervention in aging‐related diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease.     

Observed and Predicted Risk of Breast Cancer Death in Randomized Trials on Breast Cancer Screening

BackgroundThe role of breast screening in breast cancer mortality declines is debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the number of advanced cancers with poor diagnosis, while cancer treatment works through decreasing the case-fatality rate. Hence, reductions in cancer death rates thanks to screening should directly reflect reductions in advanced cancer rates. We verified whether in breast screening trials, the observed reductions in the risk of breast cancer death could be predicted from reductions of advanced breast cancer rates.ResultsThe observed and predicted RR of breast cancer death were 0.72 (0.56–0.94) and 0.98 (0.77–1.24) in the HIP trial, and 0.79 (0.78–1.01) and 0.90 (0.80–1.01) in the Age trial. In the TCT, the observed RR was 0.73 (0.62–0.87), while the predicted RR was 0.89 (0.75–1.05) if overdiagnosis was assumed to be negligible and 0.83 (0.70–0.97) if extra cancers were excluded.ConclusionsIn breast screening trials, factors other than screening have contributed to reductions in the risk of breast cancer death most probably by reducing the fatality of advanced cancers in screening groups. These factors were the better management of breast cancer patients and the underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death. Breast screening trials should publish stage-specific fatalities observed in each group.     

Cancer mortality 1981–2016 and contribution of specific cancers to current socioeconomic inequalities in all cancer mortality: A population-based study

BackgroundIn many high-income countries cancer mortality rates have declined, however, socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have widened over time with those in the most deprived areas bearing the greatest burden. Less is known about the contribution of specific cancers to inequalities in total cancer mortality.MethodsUsing high-quality routinely collected population and mortality records we examine long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in Scotland by age group, sex, and area deprivation. We use the decomposed slope and relative indices of inequality to identify the specific cancers that contribute most to absolute and relative inequalities, respectively, in total cancer mortality.ResultsCancer mortality rates fell by 24 % for males and 10 % for females over the last 35 years; declining across all age groups except females aged 75+ where rates rose by 14 %. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer death. Mortality rates of lung cancer have more than halved for males since 1981, while rates among females have almost doubled over the same period.ConclusionCurrent relative inequalities in total cancer mortality are dominated by inequalities in lung cancer mortality, but with contributions from other cancer sites including liver, and head and neck (males); and breast (females), stomach and cervical (younger females). An understanding of which cancer sites contribute most to inequalities in total cancer mortality is crucial for improving cancer health and care, and for reducing preventable cancer deaths.     

Mortality among doctors in different occupations.

A total of 20540 male doctors who replied to a questionnaire on their smoking habits that was sent to them on 1 November 1951, and who were aged 35 years and over, were classified according to their occupation as listed in the Medical Directory for 1952 and followed up until 1 November 1971. Examination of the mortality rates in 11 occupational groups showed gross heterogeneity for smoking-related diseases but not for all other diseases grouped together. On average, general practitioners smoked 37% more cigarettes than did hospital physicians and surgeons and the overall death rates among general practitioners were about 23% higher than among physicians and surgeons of similar ages. This excess death rate was chiefly accounted for by a 38% excess mortality from smoking-related diseases such as lung cancer, chronic bronchitis, and ischaemic and pulmonary heart disease. The few other statistically significant associations between occupation and disease were thought to be due either to chance or to the effect of the disease on the choice of specialty.     

Trends in Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Bronchiolitis Hospitalization Rates in High-Risk Infants in a United States Nationally Representative Database, 1997–2012

BackgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant pediatric morbidity and is the most common cause of bronchiolitis. Bronchiolitis hospitalizations declined among US infants from 2000‒2009; however, rates in infants at high risk for RSV have not been described. This study examined RSV and unspecified bronchiolitis (UB) hospitalization rates from 1997‒2012 among US high-risk infants.MethodsThe Kids’ Inpatient Database (KID) infant annual RSV (ICD-9 079.6, 466.11, 480.1) and UB (ICD-9 466.19, 466.1) hospitalization rates were estimated using weighted counts. Denominators were based on birth hospitalizations with conditions associated with high-risk for RSV: chronic perinatal respiratory disease (chronic lung disease [CLD]); congenital airway anomalies (CAA); congenital heart disease (CHD); Down syndrome (DS); and other genetic, metabolic, musculoskeletal, and immunodeficiency conditions. Preterm infants could not be identified. Hospitalizations were characterized by mechanical ventilation, inpatient mortality, length of stay, and total cost (2015$). Poisson and linear regression were used to test statistical significance of trends.ResultsRSV and UB hospitalization rates were substantially elevated for infants with higher-risk CHD, CLD, CAA and DS without CHD compared with all infants. RSV rates declined by 47.0% in CLD and 49.7% in higher-risk CHD infants; no other declines in high-risk groups were observed. UB rates increased in all high-risk groups except for a 22.5% decrease among higher-risk CHD. Among high-risk infants, mechanical ventilation increased through 2012 to 20.4% and 13.5% of RSV and UB hospitalizations; geometric mean cost increased to $31,742 and $25,962, respectively, and RSV mortality declined to 0.9%.ConclusionsAmong high-risk infants between 1997 and 2012, RSV hospitalization rates declined among CLD and higher-risk CHD infants, coincident with widespread RSV immunoprophylaxis use in these populations. UB hospitalization rates increased in all high-risk groups except higher-risk CHD, suggesting improvement in the health status of higher-risk CHD infants, potentially due to enhanced surgical interventions. Mechanical ventilation use and RSV and UB hospitalization costs increased while RSV mortality declined.     

Trends in regional cancer mortality in Taiwan 1992–2014

BackgroundAlthough the cancer mortality rate in Taiwan has been declining in recent years, no study has yet reported any regional differences in cancer mortality rates in Taiwan. We hypothesized that regional cancer mortality rates in Taiwan, an ethnically homogeneous society, exhibited no significant variations.MethodsWe investigated the trends in Taiwan regional cancer mortality between 1992 and 2014. We analyzed regional age-standardized cancer mortality rates for lung, liver, colon, stomach, oral, breast, and prostate cancers using the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database and Demographic Database. Furthermore, we applied Joinpoint regression analysis to evaluate the trends across different regions.ResultsThere are clear regional variations in mortality rates for liver, stomach, and oral cancers, but not for lung, colon, breast, and prostate cancers. The regional death rates of oral cancer, especially for eastern Taiwan, not only elevate the fastest (APC = 14.78% per year, P < 0.001) but also show the largest disparities between men and women. Regional death rates for stomach cancer, which declined most rapidly, are converging in both general and gender groups. Liver cancer is the only one with regional variations whose trends do not all go in the same direction. We also demonstrated that northern Taiwan has significant regional advantages with respect to cancer mortality.ConclusionsSome but not all cancers in Taiwan show regional disparities. Liver, stomach, and oral cancers in Taiwan exhibit clear regional variations in mortality rates. In particular, the regional variations in oral cancer mortality rates are consistent with those in alcohol consumption.     

Lifetime Smoking History and Cause-Specific Mortality in a Cohort Study with 43 Years of Follow-Up

BackgroundIn general, smoking increases the risk of mortality. However, it is less clear how the relative risk varies by cause of death. The exact impact of changes in smoking habits throughout life on different mortality risks is less studied.MethodsWe studied the impact of baseline and lifetime smoking habits, and duration of smoking on the risk of all-cause mortality, mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), any cancer and of the four most common types of cancer (lung, colorectal, prostate, and breast cancer) in a cohort study (Vlagtwedde-Vlaardingen 1965–1990, with a follow-up on mortality status until 2009, n = 8,645). We used Cox regression models adjusted for age, BMI, sex, and place of residence. Since previous studies suggested a potential effect modification of sex, we additionally stratified by sex and tested for interactions. In addition, to determine which cause of death carried the highest risk we performed competing-risk analyses on mortality due to CVD, cancer, COPD and other causes.ResultsCurrent smoking (light, moderate, and heavy cigarette smoking) and lifetime persistent smoking were associated with an increased risk of all-cause, CVD, COPD, any cancer, and lung cancer mortality. Higher numbers of pack years at baseline were associated with an increased risk of all-cause, CVD, COPD, any cancer, lung, colorectal, and prostate cancer mortality. Males who were lifetime persistent pipe/cigar smokers had a higher risk of lung cancer [HR (95% CI) = 7.72 (1.72–34.75)] as well as all-cause and any cancer mortality. A longer duration of smoking was associated with a higher risk of COPD, any and lung cancer [HR (95% CI) = 1.06 (1.00–1.12), 1.03 (1.00–1.06) and 1.10 (1.03–1.17) respectively], but not with other mortality causes. The competing risk analyses showed that ex- and current smokers had a higher risk of cancer, CVD, and COPD mortality compared to all other mortality causes. In addition, heavy smokers had a higher risk for COPD mortality compared to cancer, and CVD mortality.ConclusionOur study indicates that lifetime numbers of cigarettes smoked and the duration of smoking have different impacts for different causes of mortality. Moreover, our findings emphasize the importance of smoking-related competing risks when studying the smoking-related cancer mortality in a general population and that smoking cessation immediately effectively reduces the risk of all-cause and any cancer mortality.