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1.
Abstract

From information on mortality of Jews obtained from individual death certificates and population data from surveys of the Jewish population undertaken in 1963 and 1987, age‐specific death rates and life expectancy of the Jewish population of Rhode Island are compared with those of the total white population for 1963 and 1987 to assess changing differentials. The Jewish mortality experience continues to differ from that of the larger population even while both groups have experienced noticeable improvements. For males, the age standardized rates have widened in favor of Jews as have the life expectancies at birth and the percentage surviving to old age. By contrast, for females, the standardized death rate has widened considerably in favor of whites, while life expectancy has improved almost identically for both groups and therefore remained about equal, as it was in 1963. Reasons for these patterns are explored through attention to differences between Jews and the general white population in death rates at particular stages of the life cycle. Jews tend to be more advantaged at all but the most advanced ages, age groups in which proportionally more of the Jewish population and Jewish deaths are concentrated.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract

The five leading causes of death for Navajo males and females are analyzed by life table methods. Navajo male and female life expectancy at birth were 58.8 and 71.8 years, respectively. The greatest increase in Navajo male life expectancy would result from the elimination of motor vehicle accidents (5.17 years at birth, and 3.11 years for working ages 15–65). The life expectancy of Navajo females would be lengthened the most (3.70 years) by elimination of circulatory system disease. For working‐ages gains for both sexes, however, the greatest benefit would result from elimination of motor vehicle accidents. The implications of the results are discussed in relation to the various public health programs and health planning efforts for the Navajo Nation.  相似文献   

3.

Background

The Indigenous population of Australia suffers considerable disadvantage across a wide range of socio-economic indicators, and is therefore the focus of many policy initiatives attempting to ‘close the gap’ between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Unfortunately, past population estimates have proved unreliable as denominators for these indicators. The aim of the paper is to contribute more robust estimates for the Northern Territory Indigenous population for the period 1966–2011, and hence estimate one of the most important of socio-economic indicators, life expectancy at birth.

Method

A consistent time series of population estimates from 1966 to 2011, based off the more reliable 2011 official population estimates, was created by a mix of reverse and forward cohort survival. Adjustments were made to ensure sensible sex ratios and consistency with recent birth registrations. Standard life table methods were employed to estimate life expectancy. Drawing on an approach from probabilistic forecasting, confidence intervals surrounding population numbers and life expectancies were estimated.

Results

The Northern Territory Indigenous population in 1966 numbered between 23,800 and 26,100, compared to between 66,100 and 73,200 in 2011. In 1966–71 Indigenous life expectancy at birth lay between 49.1 and 56.9 years for males and between 49.7 and 57.9 years for females, whilst by 2006–11 it had increased to between 60.5 and 66.2 years for males and between 65.4 and 70.8 for females. Over the last 40 years the gap with all-Australian life expectancy has not narrowed, fluctuating at about 17 years for both males and females. Whilst considerable progress has been made in closing the gap in under-five mortality, at most other ages the mortality rate differential has increased.

Conclusions

A huge public health challenge remains. Efforts need to be redoubled to reduce the large gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

The historical trends of childlessness and of one‐child, two‐child, and three‐or‐more‐child families among white and nonwhite women in the United States are studied in terms of period fertility tables. Given the age and parity of a woman, we can read from the fertility tables how her parity is expected to change at successive ages during the rest of her childbearing period, if she is subjected to the age‐parity‐specific fertility rates for a particular year. The fertility tables for white and nonwhite women are constructed for the years 1940, 19S0, 1960, 1970, and 1974. These tables show that among white women who have completed their childbearing (with period rates), the percentage with more than two children has decreased from 66 in 1960 to 27 in 1974, whereas the corresponding reduction among nonwhite women is from 67 to 48 per cent (Table 1, Case 1).  相似文献   

5.
Mortality and survival for Down syndrome in Japan.   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
Mortality and survival data for 1,052 Japanese patients with Down syndrome who were born between 1966 and 1975 were analyzed. The survival rate at age 10 was estimated to be about 86%. Mortality in each age group for Down syndrome was elevated over that of the general population. In the survival rate at age 10, there was no significant difference between males and females, but the difference between cases with and without congenital heart disease was highly significant. Using data from this study-for mortality up to age 10-and from the study of institutionalized cases for mortality over age 10, a hypothetical life table was constructed; it shows that the life expectancy at birth for cases with Down syndrome is nearly 50 years.  相似文献   

6.
I constructed age‐structured populations by drawing numbers from a random numbers table, the constraints being that within a cohort each number be smaller than the preceding number (indicating that some individuals died between one year and the next) and that the first two‐digit number following 00 or 01 ending one cohort’s life be the number born into the next cohort. Populations constructed in this way showed prolonged existence with total population numbers fluctuating about a mean size and with long‐term growth rate (r) ≈ 0. The populations’ birth rates and growth rates and the females’ per capita fecundity decreased significantly with population size, whereas the death rates showed no significant relationship to population size. These results indicate that age‐structured populations can persist for long periods of time with long‐term growth rates of zero in the absence of negative‐feedback loops between a population’s present or prior density and its birth rate, growth rate, and fecundity, contrary to the assumption of density‐dependent regulation hypotheses. Thus, a long‐term growth rate of zero found in natural populations need not indicate that a population’s numbers are regulated by density‐dependent factors.  相似文献   

7.
We estimated the risk that the Steller sea lion will be extirpated in western Alaska using a population viability analysis (PVA) that combined simulations with statistically fitted models of historical population dynamics. Our analysis considered the roles that density‐dependent and density‐independent factors may have played in the past, and how they might influence future population dynamics. It also established functional relationships between population size, population growth rate and the risk of extinction under alternative hypotheses about population regulation and environmental variability. These functional relationships can be used to develop recovery criteria and guide research and management decisions. Life table parameters (e.g., birth and survival rates) operating during the population decline (1978–2002) were estimated by fitting simple age‐structured models to time‐series of pup and non‐pup counts from 33 rookeries (subpopulations). The PVA was carried out by projecting all 33 subpopulations into the future using these estimated site‐specific life tables (with associated uncertainties) and different assumptions about carrying capacities and the presence or absence of density‐dependent population regulation. Results suggest that the overall predicted risk of extirpation of Steller sea lions as a species in western Alaska was low in the next 100 yr under all scenarios explored. However, most subpopulations of Steller sea lions had high probabilities of going extinct within the next 100 yr if trends observed during the 1990s were to continue. Two clusters of contiguous subpopulations occurring in the Unimak Pass area in the western Gulf of Alaska/eastern Aleutian Islands and the Seguam–Adak region in the central Aleutian Islands had relatively lower risks of extinction. Risks of extinction for a number of subpopulations in the Gulf of Alaska were reduced if the increases observed since the late 1990s continue into the future. The risks of subpopulations going extinct were small when density‐dependent compensation in birth and survival rates was assumed, even when random stochasticity in these vital rates was introduced.  相似文献   

8.
In situ life table of a subtropical copepod   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
  • 1 A life table of a subtropical population of Mesocyclops edax(Copepoda: Cyclopoida) was constructed from a cohort of individuals reared in enclosures in a small, eutrophic lake.
  • 2 The lake population was sampled concurrently to determine age structure, per capita birth, death and growth rates, body size and clutch size.
  • 3 Maturation times of enclosed males and females were 9.3 and 11.4 days, respectively. The population growth rate. r. was estimated to be 0.18 females day-1 for the enclosed population, but approximated zero on most dates in the lake population. Mortality was low in the enclosures which excluded predators and high in the field population exposed to planktivorous fish and Chaoborus.
  • 4 The means and variances of several fitness traits are related to the specific environment. The enclosure approach promises to be a useful tool in the study of zooplankton life history variation.
  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

Socioeconomic determinants of fertility and mortality were estimated by regression analysis for 29 low‐migration SMSA's located in the eastern part of the U. S. A low‐migration sample was chosen to maximize length of life history within the regions. Independent variables included per cent nonwhite, gross and net migration, population, density, medical care, welfare, per cent Catholic, education, income, and labor force participation. Density was measured by an index based on the census inventory of urban land. Mortality results include effects of migration on older nonwhite life expectancy, an inverse effect of density on life expectancy for older whites, specific income and educational effects on older life expectancies, different causative factors for e(50) and e(1,50), lack of influence of medical care (except for the nonwhite male), and significant infant mortality multiple correlations only for the nonwhite female. For nonwhite fertility, the inverse influences of per cent nonwhite and net migration 1960–70 were of greatest importance. White fertility showed a negative relationship with medical care and a positive one with nonwhite male e(0).  相似文献   

10.
Plumage colour variation exists among Gyrfalcons throughout their Arctic and sub‐Arctic circumpolar distribution, ranging from white through silver and grey to almost black. Although different colour variants coexist within many populations, a few geographical regions, such as northern Greenland, possess a single variant, suggesting that local environments may influence plumage colour variation. In central‐west Greenland (66.5–67.5°N), where multiple colour variants exist, white male Gyrfalcons fathered significantly earlier clutches than grey males. No significant association was observed between female colour and lay date. However, significantly more offspring were produced by both male and female white Gyrfalcons than by grey variants when controlling for lay date, and silver Gyrfalcons produced an intermediate number of offspring for both sexes. This pattern was further supported by breeding plumage colour pairings. Grey females paired with grey males nested significantly later in the season and produced fewer offspring than those paired with white males, whereas no difference in lay date or offspring number was found between white males paired with white or with grey females. The difference in the number of offspring produced at each nest‐site was also inversely correlated with the distance to the nearest neighbouring nest, and grey males nested in closer proximity to other nests compared with white and silver colour variants. These results suggest that factors associated with territory occupancy and timing of breeding may regulate reproductive success differently between colour variants, with directional selection favouring light‐coloured Gyrfalcons and resulting in earlier lay date and a high frequency of white plumage colour variants in this population. Although gene flow exists between our study population and those further north (>75°N), white Gyrfalcons prevail where the breeding season duration is even shorter, suggesting that nesting chronology in combination with genetic drift may play an important role in influencing plumage colour polymorphism among Gyrfalcon populations.  相似文献   

11.
The effects of urbanisation, low income and rejuvenation of the population on life expectancy at birth and at 20, 40 and 65 years of age for males and females in Japan were examined twice, in 1980 and 1985. For males, urbanisation was the major factor determining life expectancy at birth and at age 20 years, and low income was the key determinant of decreased life expectancy except at 65 years of age. For females high income was the factor significantly decreasing life expectancy at 65 years of age in 1980, and rejuvenation of the population inversely influenced life expectancy except at birth in 1985. Life expectancy for all age groups in 1985 was significantly longer than in 1980 for both males and females.  相似文献   

12.
BackgroundInterpreting and utilizing the findings of nutritional research can be challenging to clinicians, policy makers, and even researchers. To make better decisions about diet, innovative methods that integrate best evidence are needed. We have developed a decision support model that predicts how dietary choices affect life expectancy (LE).Methods and findingsBased on meta-analyses and data from the Global Burden of Disease study (2019), we used life table methodology to estimate how LE changes with sustained changes in the intake of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, refined grains, nuts, legumes, fish, eggs, milk/dairy, red meat, processed meat, and sugar-sweetened beverages. We present estimates (with 95% uncertainty intervals [95% UIs]) for an optimized diet and a feasibility approach diet. An optimal diet had substantially higher intake than a typical diet of whole grains, legumes, fish, fruits, vegetables, and included a handful of nuts, while reducing red and processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, and refined grains. A feasibility approach diet was a midpoint between an optimal and a typical Western diet. A sustained change from a typical Western diet to the optimal diet from age 20 years would increase LE by more than a decade for women from the United States (10.7 [95% UI 8.4 to 12.3] years) and men (13.0 [95% UI 9.4 to 14.3] years). The largest gains would be made by eating more legumes (females: 2.2 [95% UI 1.1 to 3.4]; males: 2.5 [95% UI 1.1 to 3.9]), whole grains (females: 2.0 [95% UI 1.3 to 2.7]; males: 2.3 [95% UI 1.6 to 3.0]), and nuts (females: 1.7 [95% UI 1.5 to 2.0]; males: 2.0 [95% UI 1.7 to 2.3]), and less red meat (females: 1.6 [95% UI 1.5 to 1.8]; males: 1.9 [95% UI 1.7 to 2.1]) and processed meat (females: 1.6 [95% UI 1.5 to 1.8]; males: 1.9 [95% UI 1.7 to 2.1]). Changing from a typical diet to the optimized diet at age 60 years would increase LE by 8.0 (95% UI 6.2 to 9.3) years for women and 8.8 (95% UI 6.8 to 10.0) years for men, and 80-year-olds would gain 3.4 years (95% UI females: 2.6 to 3.8/males: 2.7 to 3.9). Change from typical to feasibility approach diet would increase LE by 6.2 (95% UI 3.5 to 8.1) years for 20-year-old women from the United States and 7.3 (95% UI 4.7 to 9.5) years for men. Using NutriGrade, the overall quality of evidence was assessed as moderate. The methodology provides population estimates under given assumptions and is not meant as individualized forecasting, with study limitations that include uncertainty for time to achieve full effects, the effect of eggs, white meat, and oils, individual variation in protective and risk factors, uncertainties for future development of medical treatments; and changes in lifestyle.ConclusionsA sustained dietary change may give substantial health gains for people of all ages both for optimized and feasible changes. Gains are predicted to be larger the earlier the dietary changes are initiated in life. The Food4HealthyLife calculator that we provide online could be useful for clinicians, policy makers, and laypeople to understand the health impact of dietary choices.

Lars Fadnes and co-workers estimate the possible benefits to life expectancy from adoption of more healthy diets.  相似文献   

13.
We examined melon‐headed whales that mass‐stranded live in two events in Japan: (1) 171 animals at Tanegashima Island in 2001 and (2) 85 animals at Hasaki in 2002. We report here the results of life history traits and group composition of these strandings, and compare them to another mass stranding with 135 individuals at Aoshima in 1982. In the Hasaki event, most stranded animals, including those released were sexed and measured. The proportion of live males released was much higher than that of females, and larger animals, especially females, were more likely to have died. Females were estimated to attain sexual maturity at around 7 yr and give birth every 3–4 yr. The sex ratio was significantly different between the Hasaki and Aoshima events. Among dead specimens, females of various age classes were included in all strandings, while age distribution of males varied considerably among strandings. This suggests females show group fidelity while males move between groups. Asymptotic body length of females from Hasaki was significantly smaller than that from Tanegashima, suggesting that more than one population of melon‐headed whales exist off Japan.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

Using information provided by institutions handling Jewish deaths, this study identified 735 deaths among Jewish residents of Rhode Island during 1979–81. Official death records then provided data on the characteristics of the deceased and on cause of death, allowing comparisons of Jewish/non‐ Jewish patterns of mortality and cause of death, as well as analysis of differentials among the Jewish decedents, taking account of birthplace and occupation. The findings indicate that relatively fewer Jewish males die at ages below 65, and more at ages 85 and over than is true of total white males. Jewish females exhibit an age‐at‐death pattern more similar to that of all white women. These sex differences characterize cause of death as well. Differences are more pronounced between Jewish and non‐Jewish males than between the female groups. Most noteworthy, Jewish male deaths from diabetes are significantly higher and deaths from respiratory disease significantly lower than among total white men. Differentials in age of death between Jewish native‐born and foreign‐born are largely a function of their differential age composition, and socioeconomic status showed no clear relation to age at death or cause of death.  相似文献   

15.
为了探明温度对扶桑绵粉蚧Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley发育的影响, 本研究在光周期14L∶10D, 相对湿度75%±1%及不同温度(18, 20, 24, 26, 28和30℃)的实验室条件下, 测定了以南瓜为寄主的扶桑绵粉蚧各虫态的发育历期和存活率, 组建了扶桑绵粉蚧的实验种群生命表。结果表明: 在18~30℃温度范围内, 随着温度的升高扶桑绵粉蚧的发育速率加快, 且其温度与发育速率的关系符合 Logistic模型。在18~30℃恒温条件下, 扶桑绵粉蚧的雌虫世代发育历期为40.24~80.64 d, 雄虫世代发育历期为25.21~54.31 d; 雌虫世代的发育起点温度为7.39℃, 有效积温为889.89日·度; 雄虫世代的发育起点温度为8.58℃, 有效积温为523.47日·度。在26℃时, 扶桑绵粉蚧的世代存活率最高(77.03%), 种群趋势指数也最高(22.98), 有利于种群增长; 而在18℃和30℃, 扶桑绵粉蚧的种群趋势指数分别为2.99和9.80。扶桑绵粉蚧有较强的种群发展能力, 但高温和低温都不利于其种群增长。扶桑绵粉蚧发育历期和实验种群表的研究为其控制措施的制定提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

16.
Understanding the reproductive parameters of endangered primate species is vital for evaluating the status of populations and developing adequate conservation measures. This study provides the first detailed analysis of the reproductive parameters of wild white‐headed langurs (Trachypithecus leucocephalus), based on demographic data collected over an 8‐year period in the Nongguan Karst Hills in Chongzuo County, Guangxi, China. From 1998 to 2002, a total of 133 live births were recorded in the population based on systematic censuses. Births occurred throughout the year, but the temporal pattern was highly correlated with seasonal variation in temperature and rainfall, with the birth peak coinciding with the dry and cold months of November–March. The average birthrate was 0.47±0.13 births per female per year and mortality for infants younger than 20 months was 15.8%. From 1998 to 2006, 14 females gave birth to 41 infants in four focal groups. The average age at first birth for female langurs was 5–6 years (n=5) and the interbirth interval (IBI) was 23.2±5.2 months (median=24.5 months, n=27). Infants are weaned at 19–21 months of age. The IBI for females with infant loss before weaning was significantly shorter than those for females whose infants survived. It appears that birth seasonality in the white‐headed langurs is influenced by seasonal changes in food availability. The timing of conceptions was found to coincide with peak food availability. The reproductive parameters for white‐headed langurs reported here are quite similar to those reported for other colobine species. One major difference is our observation of lower infant mortality in Trachypithecus. Am. J. Primatol. 71:558–566, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.  相似文献   

17.
Baseline biological growth data were obtained under laboratory conditions for four local populations of the phlebotomine sand fly R papatasi (Scopoli, 1786) (Diptera: Psychodidae) in different eco-regions at altitudes between 368 and 1117 m in the Sanliurfa province of Turkey. The developmental time from egg to adult was found to be significantly different among the populations: 36 days for the AKL population (368 m), 43 days for the HHR population (488 m), 45 days for the HMD population (644 m), and 49 days for the ALT population (1117 m), respectively. Based on cohorts of adults in each population, horizontal life tables were constructed. The average longevity was determined to be in the range of 8.75 +/- 2.39 to 11.60 +/- 3.48 days for adult females, and it was found to be slightly longer for adult males. No significant difference was found in life expectancy at emergence, e(x) when x=1, between females and males in general (P>0.05) in all the populations. While significant differences could be demonstrated among populations for predictive parameters such as net reproductive rate, Ro, and generation time, Tc, no significant differences among the populations were found in terms of intrinsic rate of increase, r(m), finite rate of increase, lambda, birth (b) and death (d) rates (P>0.05). Populations that produced offspring earlier in life also produced more total female offspring, since Tc was negatively correlated with Ro among the populations (r = -0.686, 0.01相似文献   

18.
We studied both the short‐ and long‐term effects of density on three life history traits of a red deer population inhabiting a temperate forest. Both male and female body mass increased when population density decreased, but male mass changed to a greater extent than female mass. Density did not influence female survival irrespective of age, however, survival of males was lower at high density for all age classes except the prime‐age class. Pregnancy rates of primiparous females increased markedly with decreasing density, whereas those of adult hinds were fairly constant and unrelated to density. For both sexes, of the studied life history traits we detected a long‐term effect of density at birth (cohort effect) only on body mass. These results suggest that density influences life history traits in the same way as factors of environmental variation such as climate. In this population we did not find any evidence for an influence of climatic conditions on life history traits of red deer. Both mild winters and the absence of summer droughts during the study period could account for such an absence of climatic effects. We interpreted our results to show that 1) as expected for a highly dimorphic and polygynous species such as red deer, male traits showed consistently higher sensitivity to variation in density than female traits, illustrating possible costs caused by sexual selection in males, 2) the female‐based Eberhardt's model according to which increasing density should sequentially affect juvenile survival, reproductive rates of primiparous females, reproductive rates of adults and lastly adult survival was only partly supported because we found that pregnancy rate of primiparous females rather than juvenile survival was the most sensitive trait to variation in density. We propose that including variation in male traits would improve the accuracy of models of population dynamics of large mammals, at least for highly dimorphic species. Because the population we studied was not fenced, we only measured apparent survival. We discuss how dispersal, in relation to the phenotypic quality of young deer, might be a potential regulating factor under such conditions.  相似文献   

19.
The objectives of this paper are to predict life years lost associated with obesity-related diseases (ORDs) for U.S. non-smoking adults, and to examine the relationship between those ORDs and mortality. Data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1997–2000, were used. We employed mixed proportional hazard models to estimate the association between those ORDs and mortality and used simulations to project life years lost associated with the ORDs. We found that obesity-attributable comorbidities are associated with large decreases in life years and increases in mortality rates. The life years lost associated with ORDs is more marked for younger adults than older adults, for blacks than whites, for males than females, and for the more obese than the less obese. Using U.S. non-smoking adults aged 40 to 49 years as an example to illustrate percentage of the life years lost associated with ORDs, we found that the mean life years lost associated with ORDs for U.S. non-smoking black males aged 40 to 49 years with a body mass index above 40 kg/m2 was 5.43 years, which translates to a 7.5% reduction in total life years. White males of the same age range and same degree of obesity lost 5.23 life years on average – a 6.8% reduction in total life years, followed by black females (5.04 years, a 6.5% reduction in life years), and white females (4.7 years, a 5.8% reduction in life years). Overall, ORDs increased chances of dying and lessened life years by 0.2 to 11.7 years depending on gender, race, BMI classification, and age.  相似文献   

20.
1. One at a time during the reproductive period of amictic females, oocytes fill with yolk and undergo a mitotic maturation division (oogenesis), are oviposited as single cells, and then develop parthenogenetically into females. Sexual reproduction in Brachionus and several other genera is initiated when amictic females are crowded and oviposit some eggs induced to differentiate into mictic females. Mictic females produce haploid eggs that can develop parthenogentically into males or be fertilised and develop into diapausing embryos called resting eggs. 2. This study examines the time when oocytes in amictic females respond to maternal population density. Is the fate of all oocytes in the germarium irreversibly determined during the early postnatal life of the mother, or is each oocyte labile until just before oviposition? In the former case, the probability of an amictic female producing a mictic daughter at any time throughout her reproductive period would reflect the population density she experienced while young and not that at the time she oviposited an egg. 3. Amictic females of two clones of a Florida strain of B. calyciflorus were cultured singly from birth at a low or high density (in a large or small volume) until about halfway through their reproductive period and then switched (experimental treatment), or not (control treatment), to the other density condition. The results indicate that the female fate of an oocyte is determined by maternal population density during oogenesis. Eggs oviposited soon after transfer from low to high density had the same, or a higher, probability of becoming mictic females compared with those produced by control females kept at the high density; eggs oviposited after transfer from the high to the low density had the same low probability of becoming mictic females as those produced by control females kept at the low density. 4. Control females kept at the high density were less likely to produce mictic daughters as they aged. This decline is not because of a decreased propensity of older females to respond to crowding, as older females responded maximally when transferred from a low to a high population density. 5. As oocytes in amictic females respond to maternal population density only during oogenesis, there is a negligible lag between the population‐density signal in the environment and the commitment to sexual reproduction. This minimises the obligatory two‐generation lag between this signal and production of resting eggs, and thus reduces the possibility that crowding will lead to food limitation before production of these eggs.  相似文献   

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