More on the determinants of the fertility transition

Abstract

The economic approach to fertility is an application of the economics theory of consumer behavior. It is assumed that consumers of children are utility‐maximizers with stable preferences over time. Thus, changes in fertility are related to changes in household income and the “price” of children. One concern in this approach is that demographic changes are a product of changes in tastes rather than exogenous changes in economic factors such as the earning ability of women. In this paper, the effect of economic variables on the demand for children in the United States in 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1980 is examined. Support is provided for the hypothesis that the earning ability of women is an important determinant of fertility.     

A follow‐up study of intrauterine contraceptive devices: An Indian experience

Abstract

Evidence suggests that in contemporary Africa, and probably in the predemographic transition periods of many other populations, desired fertility typically exceeds (or exceeded) achieved fertility and completed family size. The main conceptual approaches employed by economists during the past two decades for the analysis of the determinants of fertility are reviewed and found inadequate because most fail to address circumstances in which demand or desired fertility exceeds supply or actual fertility. An alternative conceptual framework is offered incorporating both demand and supply determinants. Results from numerous studies of African and other populations are found to be consistent with this approach. Data from Tanzania are described and analyzed. Implications of this micro‐level conceptual approach for macro‐level fertility change are suggested.     

Determinants of the sex ratio at birth: Review of recent literature

Abstract

Use of contraception by rural Egyptian women who desire no more children is examined within a modified microeconomic framework. Four sets of factors are hypothesized to influence current use of contraception: (1) costs of contraception, ‘(2) factors influencing the slope of the desired family size function, (3) anticipated costs of child rearing and (4) strength of motivation for fertility regulation. Women's education and two measures of psychic costs were found to be important predictors of contraceptive use. Factors affecting the demand for children and thus indirectly influencing the motivation for fertility regulation were also important. Land ownership, cultivating status of the household, and educational expectations for children were significantly related to current use. Strength of motivation, although significant, was less strongly related to use of contraception. The findings suggest women who want no more children, but who are not practicing contraception, are affected by factors influencing both the costs of contraception and the costs of an unwanted child.     

Patterns of digit preference and avoidance in the age statistics of some recent national censuses: A test of the turner hypothesis

Abstract

The relationship between family type and fertility among Iranian peasant women is examined through multiple classification analysis. It is shown that peasant women living in extended families have a significantly lower level of fertility than do those living in nuclear families. The hypothesis that part of this lower fertility is due to population pressure on the limited resources of the household is tested, and it is noted that women in extended families with three or more “non‐nuclear” members have the lowest level of fertility.     

Household type and family size in Maharashtra, 1970

Abstract

Demographic transition theory expectations notwithstanding, empirical analyses have often observed higher fertility among nuclear than among extended households. A similar finding has been observed consistently at all stages of the reproductive career among a sample of households in Maharashtra, India, in 1970. Neither differential levels of natural fertility nor of family‐size preferences and use of fertility regulation, nor differential socioeconomic levels, can explain adequately the higher fertility of nuclear households. On the other hand, the evidence suggests that the direction of causation is reversed, that is, that household type is itself a function of fertility and other life‐cycle variables and also of space constraints on the household, and as such, is a better determinant of household type than a function of the latter.     

The estimation of natural fertility: A micro approach

Abstract

The estimation of natural fertility has heretofore been confined to population aggregates. This paper presents a technique for estimating natural fertility at the household level for developing countries with some practice of deliberate family size limitation and applies it to micro‐level WFS data for Sri Lanka and Colombia for females aged 35–44 in intact marriages. The technique is based on a proximate determinants equation estimated as part of a model that takes account of the interdependence between use of fertility control and natural fertility. To evaluate the results, the mean and household level estimates of natural fertility for each country are first compared with actual fertility; then mean estimates for each country are compared with macro‐level estimates of natural fertility based on three other methods. Finally, the implications of the analysis for the proximate sources of intercountry and intracountry variations in natural fertility are examined. The results suggest that the present approach yields plausible quantitative estimates of natural fertility and reasonable analytical results.     

A demographic dilemma: The Parsis of Karachi

Abstract

Own‐children fertility estimates derived from the Korean censuses of 1966 and 1970 indicate that the total fertility rate fell by more than half a child in the intercensal period, from an estimated 4,837 to 4,257 per thousand. A compositional analysis shows that about one‐fourth of the fall can be attributed to changes in population composition by urban‐rural residence, education, marital status, and parity, and about three‐fourths to changes in age‐specific birth rates cross‐classified by these same characteristics. The own‐children method is used to generate the finely specified birth rates necessary for this analysis, and a decomposition technique used previously by one of the authors is extended to incorporate the unusually large number of compositional variables.     

A dynamic,multi‐level analysis of recent immunization trends in Colombia

Abstract

During 1985–91, Latin American ministries of health carried out the ultimately successful Regional Polio Eradication Initiative. Unprecedented vaccine coverage levels were attained through a combination of mass campaigns, house‐to‐house vaccinations, and improvements in routine immunization services. Little is known, however, about the effects of these interventions on immunization demand; whether they reached so‐called high‐risk households and, if so, whether program effects were sufficient to offset the household risk factors. This paper examines the probability and timing of full immunization over this period in one case country, Colombia. Information on the immunization status of 3,609 vaccine‐eligible children born 1985–90 was extracted from Colombia's 1990 Demographic and Health Survey. Annual immunization coverage estimates from the Colombian Ministry of Health for 1985–90 for 148 sample municipios were appended to each child record, along with household‐level data. Initial non‐parametric regressions showed that five of six observed risk factors negatively influenced full immunization probability. Multivariate logit models showed that parents who had already lost a child were significantly less likely to obtain immunization cards (a proxy for exposure to the routine immunization program), despite rising cardholdership rates over the period. Among 1,376 immunization cardholders, waiting times to full immunization fell monotonically over the period. Local program coverage of 80 per cent or higher and prior use of prenatal services both increased the probability of full immunization. However, three of five maternal occupational categories decreased the probability, as did three of six observed household risk factors. The results show that demand for routine immunizations rose over the period, that only the highest‐risk households were not exposed to the routine program, and that routine program participation partially offset negative risk factor effects on the probability of full immunization. While targeted PHC interventions may increase health production by recruiting high‐risk households into the routine PHC services, further health production increases will require more intensive follow‐up of such households through routine PHC services.     

Family planning among Japanese on public relief

Abstract

Two recurrent concepts in fertility literature permit prediction of an inverse relationship between social class and fertility. The commitment to familism refers to the degree that couples embrace a family‐centered style of life over a consumerist or careerist style of life. Commitment to individual children refers to the emotional and material involvement of parents in each child they have. Data show that commitment to individual children is negatively related to fertility, that social class is negatively related to commitment to familism, that social class is positively related to commitment to individual children, and that commitment to familism and commitment to individual children account for relationships between class and fertility.     

A period analysis of parity distribution among white and nonwhite women in the United States, 1940–1974

Abstract

The historical trends of childlessness and of one‐child, two‐child, and three‐or‐more‐child families among white and nonwhite women in the United States are studied in terms of period fertility tables. Given the age and parity of a woman, we can read from the fertility tables how her parity is expected to change at successive ages during the rest of her childbearing period, if she is subjected to the age‐parity‐specific fertility rates for a particular year. The fertility tables for white and nonwhite women are constructed for the years 1940, 19S0, 1960, 1970, and 1974. These tables show that among white women who have completed their childbearing (with period rates), the percentage with more than two children has decreased from 66 in 1960 to 27 in 1974, whereas the corresponding reduction among nonwhite women is from 67 to 48 per cent (Table 1, Case 1).     

The effect of female education on marital fertility in different size communities of Mexico

Abstract

Based on a very large sample of married women aged 15 to 49 from the 1970 census of Mexico, the effect of literacy and education on the number of children ever born in different size communities is investigated. While cumulative marital fertility tends to be inversely related to community size, the overall shape of the education‐fertility relationship is generally similar in rural, semi‐urban, small urban, and large urban localities. These results combined with those for literacy do not support the hypothesis of an urbanization or a literacy “threshold” at which women's schooling begins to reduce family size.     

CO2 emissions from the Chinese cement sector: Analysis from both the supply and demand sides

China is the largest producer and consumer of cement worldwide, and cement production entails the release of substantial carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. As the cement sector is a crucial sector of the Chinese economy, understanding the role of supply‐ and demand‐side factors may help accelerate efforts to mitigate CO₂ emissions. However, few studies have analyzed the critical factors affecting CO₂ emissions in the sector based on a combined supply‐ and demand‐side perspective. In this study, we developed an integrated framework that included eleven indicators covering both the supply and demand sides. Results revealed that improving cement production technology cannot offset CO₂ emissions from the growth in demand for cement. Improving technology on the supply side would considerably reduce CO₂ emissions from Chinese cement production; nevertheless, the combination of rapid urbanization, GDP growth, and an ultra‐high fixed capital formation ratio on the demand side increased CO₂ emissions nearly 25‐fold from 1990 to 2015. Notably, some demand‐side factors also had an effect that reduced CO₂ emissions. The in‐use stock per unit of fixed capital formation and output per in‐use stock reduced CO₂ emissions by 332 million metric tons, which is comparable to the contribution of technological progress. Based on these results, we examine why these demand‐side factors substantially influence CO₂ emissions in the Chinese cement sector, and we provide recommendations for policy‐makers on carbon‐reduction measures in this CO₂‐intensive sector.     

Heredity counseling the darker side

Abstract

A new approach to discovering a consistent relationship between female employment and fertility valid over different stages of economic development is proposed. A better understanding of the relationship will be gained by taking into account: (1) ecological and individual levels of analysis; (2) the life‐cycle aspects of fertility and labor force participation; (3) the matching of current and historical perspective on both work and fertility; (4) measures of fertility that provide information on both the number and the spacing of children, and (5) an approach to measuring labor force participation that emphasizes the utilization of labor.     

Assessing the correlates of desired family size in Shaanxi,China

Abstract

This exploratory analysis of factors associated with Chinese women's fertility desires uses data on married women between the ages of 18 and 35 who live in Shaanxi Province, China. Analyses using an economic framework found that both rural and urban couples who intended to sign, or who had already signed, the one‐child certificate reported wanting significantly fewer children. However, in rural areas (where 80 per cent of the provincial population lives), education level, living arrangements, participation in an arranged marriage, attitudes regarding the ideal age for marriage, and knowledge of the reasons for the government's fertility policies appear to play a relatively larger role in shaping fertility preferences.     

Changes in Sibling configurations for American preschool children

Abstract

This paper uses data drawn from the 1940 through 1980 Public Use Microdata Samples of the U.S. Census of Population to document sibling configurations from the child's perspective. Changes in four aspects of siblings are examined for five cohorts of white and black preschool‐aged children: number, birth order distributions, spacing intervals, and sex composition. Changes in fertility behavior of adults in the post‐war era had a profound effect on the structure of sibling systems experienced by children. Successive cohorts of preschool children show a rise in number of siblings through the early post‐war years before showing sharp declines in number of siblings through the 1960's and 1970's. These shifts in size of sibling sets are reflected in changes in the proportion of each cohorts who are first born and only children, both of which have increased substantially by the 1980 cohort. The 1940 and 1980 cohorts have similar proportions of children with short intervals. However, the middle cohorts show the effects of the quickened pace of fertility with substantial proportions of children with comparatively short birth intervals. Finally, substantial shifts across cohorts in several measures of sex composition of children are observed. Most significantly, there is a marked decline in the proportion of children experiencing an opposite‐sex older sibling.     

The pattern of reproductive life in a Berber population of morocco

Abstract

Reproductive patterns were studied from data collected in 1,450 Berber households in the province of Marrakesh, Morocco in 1984. Women aged 45–49 years had a mean of 8.9 pregnancies to achieve 5.7 living children. Social influences on fertility rates show the importance of tradition, particularly through time‐dependent variables such as age at marriage, waiting time to first birth, interbirth intervals, and duration of breastfeeding. Birth control does not appear to affect the tempo of fertility; rather, its main use is to bring the reproductive period to a close. The comparison of two subsamples of women separated by a 25‐year interval indicates an actual acceleration of the tempo of fertility by the reduction of waiting time to first birth and of interbirth intervals. The supposed ongoing process of demographic transition is not clearly observed in this population.     

Son preference and the sex ratio at birth in China: A provincial level analysis

Abstract

Data from a Samoan menstruation study suggest that lactation, even intensive on‐demand lactation, does not inhibit menstruation or conception. This paper explores the applied and theoretical implications of continuing to accept lactation as a universally effective fertility control mechanism. Such thinking can have disastrous implications for family planning programs, and it keeps us from challenging long‐held assumptions about lactation's role in population growth in early populations.     

Sex differentials in infant and child mortality in Korea

Abstract

This paper reports on a study of infant and child mortality in the Republic of Korea, a country known for a strong son preference, using the 1974 World Fertility Survey data. When the age‐specific probabilities of dying for ages zero to five are compared for male and female children, an unusual pattern of relatively high female mortality is observed. The higher female mortality is more pronounced during childhood than during infancy. Multivariate analysis of life tables, using a hazard model, shows that covariates influencing the mortality at young ages differ for male and female children and suggests that male and female children receive unequal care by their parents. The analysis also reveals different patterns of interaction between infant and child mortality and mother's fertility control behavior depending on the sex of the child.     

More on the determinants of the fertility transition

The economic approach to fertility is an application of the economics theory of consumer behavior. It is assumed that consumers of children are utility-maximizers with stable preferences over time. Thus, changes in fertility are related to changes in household income and the "price" of children. One concern in this approach is that demographic changes are a product of changes in tastes rather than exogenous changes in economic factors such as the earning ability of women. In this paper, the effect of economic variables on the demand for children in the United States in 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1980 is examined. Support is provided for the hypothesis that the earning ability of women is an important determinant of fertility.     

Achievement of Fertility in an Infertile Man With Resistant Macroprolactinoma Using High-Dose Bromocriptine and a Combination of Human Chorionic Gonadotropin and an Aromatase Inhibitor

ObjectiveTo describe the achievement of fertility in an infertile man with a resistant macroprolactinoma by using high-dose bromocriptine and a combination of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and an aromatase inhibitor.MethodsWe present historical features and results of clinical, laboratory, and imaging evaluation in a man with secondary infertility attributable to a resistant macroprolactinoma.ResultsWe report a case of macroprolactinoma in a 36-year-old infertile man who failed to attain a normal serum testosterone level and fertility with use of either bromocriptine or cabergoline treatment. Testosterone replacement or hCG therapy in this patient resulted in an increase in serum prolactin levels, which declined after discontinuation of this therapy. The combination of high doses of bromocriptine, hCG, and an aromatase inhibitor facilitated near-normalization of serum prolactin levels, shrinkage of the macroprolactinoma, recovery of serum testosterone levels, sexual function, and sperm count, and achievement of fertility.ConclusionAn aromatase inhibitor may facilitate successful testosterone replacement therapy in male patients with prolactinoma. (Endocr Pract. 2010;16:669-672)