Paleotemperature response to monsoon activity in the Japan Sea during the last 160 kyr

Paleo-sea-surface temperatures in the northeastern- and southeastern-parts of the Japan Sea were reconstructed for the last 160 kyr using alkenone temperatures (U^K′₃₇-temperatures). U^K′₃₇-temperatures at two sites show distinct glacial–interglacial changes during the last 160 kyr except for the interval corresponding to middle MIS 3 to MIS 2. On orbital-timescales, U^K′₃₇-temperature tends to be high during MIS 5e, MIS 5c, and MIS 5a, which coincides with the intervals of stronger East Asian summer monsoon activity. The amplitude of temperature fluctuations in the Japan Sea is significantly higher than those in the neighboring seas. We suggest that the SST variation was amplified by the increasing source water (Kuroshio water) temperature and the changes in the volume transport of the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) and/or the north–south oscillation of the sub-polar front position within the Japan Sea. Millennial-scale temperature fluctuations in the Japan Sea show that the temperature at the northern site was higher than that at the southern site during warmer periods of MIS 5, which is called “temperature reversal.” By analogy with modern oceanography, the temperature reversal could reflect the enhanced volume transport of the TWC and the spatial relationship between the studied site and the branches of the TWC, which is an essential factor in north–south temperature reversal around the eastern Japan Sea. Temperature drops were found at 114 ka, 111 ka, 93 ka, 87 ka, and 77 ka in MIS 5. Those events were associated with an increase in organic carbon and alkenone contents and can be correlated with the abundance peaks of ice-rafted debris (IRD) at Site GH05-1208 in the northern Japan Sea, suggesting that the surface water was cooled by enhanced mixing and consequent upwelling in a stronger winter monsoon regime.     

Flying in the face of climate change: a review of climate change, past, present and future

The distribution and abundance of birds is known to depend critically upon climate variability at a range of temporal and spatial scales. In this paper we review historical changes in climate in the context of what is known about climate variability over the last millennium, with particular reference to the British Isles. The climate of Britain is now warmer than it has been in at least 340 years, with the 1990s decade 0.5 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average. In addition, the frequency of cold days (mean temperature below 0 °C), particularly during March and November, has declined and there has been a marked shift in the seasonality of precipitation, with winters becoming substantially wetter and summers becoming slightly drier. Current understanding is that the rate of future warming is likely to accelerate with more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves, milder winters, an increase in winter rainfall, an increased risk of winter river floods, and an increase in mean sea-level and associated coastal flooding. All of these aspects of climate change are likely to impact on coastal birds. A range of potential future climate scenarios for the British Isles are presented derived from recently completed global climate model experiments. For migrant bird species, changes in the British climate have also to be seen within the context of remote climate change in both the breeding and the overwintering grounds.     

Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species'' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species'' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species'' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species'' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species'' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.     

The role of climate,habitat, and species co‐occurrence as drivers of change in small mammal distributions over the past century

Species distribution models are commonly used to predict species responses to climate change. However, their usefulness in conservation planning and policy is controversial because they are difficult to validate across time and space. Here we capitalize on small mammal surveys repeated over a century in Yosemite National Park, USA, to assess accuracy of model predictions. Historical (1900–1940) climate, vegetation, and species occurrence data were used to develop single‐ and multi‐species multivariate adaptive regression spline distribution models for three species of chipmunk. Models were projected onto the current (1980–2007) environmental surface and then tested against modern field resurveys of each species. We evaluated models both within and between time periods and found that even with the inclusion of biotic predictors, climate alone is the dominant predictor explaining the distribution of the study species within a time period. However, climate was not consistently an adequate predictor of the distributional change observed in all three species across time. For two of the three species, climate alone or climate and vegetation models showed good predictive performance across time. The stability of the distribution from the past to present observed in the third species, however, was not predicted by our modeling approach. Our results demonstrate that correlative distribution models are useful in understanding species' potential responses to environmental change, but also show how changes in species‐environment correlations through time can limit the predictive performance of models.     

Sea surface temperature changes during May and August in the western Arabian Sea over the last 22 kyr: Implications as to shifting of the upwelling season

In the western Arabian Sea (WAS), the highest seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) difference presently occurs between May and August. In order to gain an understanding on how monsoonal upwelling modulates the SST difference between these two months, we have computed SST for the months of May and August based on census counts of planktonic foraminifers by using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The SST difference between May and August exhibits three distinct phases: i) a moderate SST difference in the late Holocene (0–3.5 ka) is attributable to intense upwelling during August, ii) a minimum SST difference from 4 to 12 ka is due to weak upwelling during the month of August, and iii) the highest SST difference during the last glacial interval (19 to 22 ka) with high Globigerina bulloides % could have been caused by the occurrence of a prolonged upwelling season (from May through July) and maximum difference in the incoming solar radiation between May and August. Overall, variations in the SST difference between May and August show that the timing of intense upwelling in the Western Arabian Sea over the last 22 kyr has been variable over the months of June, July and August.     

Effect of climate change over the past half century on the distribution,extent and NPP of ecosystems of Inner Mongolia

The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, changes in the spatial pattern of major terrestrial ecosystems from 1956 to 2006 in Inner Mongolia of China were analyzed with the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) model in a GIS environment, and net primary production (NPP) of natural vegetation was evaluated with the Synthetic model, to determine the effect of climate change on the ecosystem. The results showed that climate warming and drying strongly influenced ecosystems. Decreased precipitation and the subsequent increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration caused a severe water deficiency, and hence decreased ecosystem productivity. Climate change also influenced the spatial distribution of HLZs. In particular, new HLZs began to appear, such as Warm temperate desert scrub in 1981 and Warm temperate thorn steppe in 2001. The relative area of desert (Cool temperate desert scrub, Warm temperate thorn steppe, Warm temperate desert scrub, Cool temperate desert and Warm temperate desert) increased by 50.2% over the last half century, whereas the relative area of forest (Boreal moist forest and Cool moist forest) decreased by 36.5%. Furthermore, the area of Cool temperate steppe has continuously decreased at a rate of 5.7% per decade; if the current rate of decrease continues, this HLZ could disappear in 173 years. The HLZs had a large shift range with the mean center of the relative life zones of desert shifting northeast, resulting a decrease in the steppe and forest area and an increase in the desert area. In general, a strong effect of climate change on ecosystems was indicated. Therefore, the important role of climate change must be integrated into rehabilitation strategies of ecosystem degradation of Inner Mongolia.     

Spatial dynamics of Chinese Muntjac related to past and future climate fluctuations

Climate fluctuations in the past and in the future are likely to result in population expansions,shifts,or the contraction of the ecological niche of many speci...     

高山林线与气候变化关系研究进展

20世纪全球气候经历了异常的变化。20世纪是过去1000年中增暖最大的1个世纪,并且90年代是最暖的10年。作为两个生态系统的过渡地带,生态过渡带是监测全球变化的重要地点,而森林和苔原之间的高山林线是全球变化最为敏感的地点。从高山林线树木个体对气候变化的响应、气候变化下林线处树木的更新、林线格局变化以及高山林线与气候变化关系研究中所采用的研究方法等方面,综合论述了国内外的研究进展,最后提出了高山林线研究中需要注意的问题,并对今后的研究趋势作了展望。     

Abyssal NE Atlantic benthic foraminifera during the last 15 kyr: Relation to variations in seasonality of productivity

Benthic foraminiferal faunas (> 63 μm) and stable isotopes from the last 15 kyr were studied in BENGAL programme (high-resolution temporal and spatial study of the BENthic biology and Geochemistry of a north-eastern Atlantic abyssal Locality) kasten core 13078#16 from the Porcupine Abyssal Plain, NE Atlantic (48°49.91 N, 16°29.94 W, water depth 4844 m). Changes occurred in the accumulation rates, species composition, diversity, and stable isotopes during the last 15 kyr. Today, the area is strongly influenced by seasonal inputs of phytodetritus following the spring blooms in surface water primary productivity. Variations in the relative abundance of the two most abundant species, Epistominella exigua and Alabaminella weddellensis, which today show significant increases in abundance with the presence of phytodetritus on the sea-floor, are interpreted as resulting from changes in the seasonality of productivity. Seasonal productivity was higher during the Holocene than during the last deglaciation and Younger Dryas, probably coinciding with the retreat of the polar front to higher latitudes. This hypothesis is consistent with simultaneous decreases in the percentage of the polar planktic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (s), and increases in the percentage of Globigerina bulloides, a warmer water planktic foraminifera indicative of phytoplankton blooms and enhanced productivity. The relative abundance of the ‘phytodetritus species’ (E. exigua and A. weddellensis) covary between 14.7 and 8.1 kyr, but not between 7.8 and 1.2 kyr. Major decreases in the numbers per gram and accumulation rates of planktic and benthic foraminifera occurred at ∼ 12–8.5 kyr and at ∼ 4 kyr which correspond to decreases in the % sediment coarse fraction and published data on inorganic carbon contents suggesting that dissolution may have increased at these times. Relationships between benthic foraminiferal faunas and benthic stable isotope records suggest no simple relationship between faunal abundances and test isotope chemistry. For example, the abundances of phytodetritus species do not show strong correlations with either the δ¹³C values of E. exigua or the Δδ¹³C _{E. exigua − P. wuellerstorfi} record, which have previously been suggested as indicative of seasonality of productivity.     

Translocation of species, climate change, and the end of trying to recreate past ecological communities

Many of the species at greatest risk of extinction from anthropogenic climate change are narrow endemics that face insurmountable dispersal barriers. In this review, I argue that the only viable option to maintain populations of these species in the wild is to translocate them to other locations where the climate is suitable. Risks of extinction to native species in destination areas are small, provided that translocations take place within the same broad geographic region and that the destinations lack local endemics. Biological communities in these areas are in the process of receiving many hundreds of other immigrant species as a result of climate change; ensuring that some of the 'new' inhabitants are climate-endangered species could reduce the net rate of extinction.     

Phylogeography of the tree lizard, Urosaurus ornatus: responses of populations to past climate change

Isolation due to both geological barriers and range contractions during the Pleistocene glacial maxima has been an important cause of diversification of arid-adapted species in the North American deserts. Tree lizards, Urosaurus ornatus, are distributed across much of the southwestern arid regions and can tolerate a wide range of environments. Thus, they may have avoided large-scale shifts in distribution caused by Pleistocene climate change and any subsequent evolutionary impacts. Cytochrome b sequences were sampled from U. ornatus across the northern part of their range to test if current structure of these populations resulted from post-Pleistocene range expansion and habitat fragmentation, or prior geological isolation. Phylogenetic analyses found geographical structuring of populations consistent with a model of long-term geographical isolation corresponding to each of the desert regions. The two post-Pleistocene hypotheses were not well supported as estimated times of divergence predated the retreat of the last continental ice sheet. Populations in different regions were impacted by different processes. Southern populations of U. ornatus appear to have remained largely independent of more derived northern and eastern populations during Pleistocene climate change, while populations in regions containing more derived populations showed evidence of more recent range expansion (Colorado Plateau). As populations of U. ornatus attest to, the complex and dynamic history of the southwestern USA has left a deep-rooted and multifaceted imprint on genetic and phylogeographical structure of the species living there.     

Small-scale plant species distribution in snowbeds and its sensitivity to climate change

Alpine snowbeds are characterized by a long-lasting snow cover and low soil temperature during the growing season. Both these key abiotic factors controlling plant life in snowbeds are sensitive to anthropogenic climate change and will alter the environmental conditions in snowbeds to a considerable extent until the end of this century. In order to name winners and losers of climate change among the plant species inhabiting snowbeds, we analyzed the small-scale species distribution along the snowmelt and soil temperature gradients within alpine snowbeds in the Swiss Alps. The results show that the date of snowmelt and soil temperature were relevant abiotic factors for small-scale vegetation patterns within alpine snowbed communities. Species richness in snowbeds was reduced to about 50% along the environmental gradients towards later snowmelt date or lower daily maximum temperature. Furthermore, the occurrence pattern of the species along the snowmelt gradient allowed the establishment of five species categories with different predictions of their distribution in a warmer world. The dominants increased their relative cover with later snowmelt date and will, therefore, lose abundance due to climate change, but resist complete disappearance from the snowbeds. The indifferents and the transients increased in species number and relative cover with higher temperature and will profit from climate warming. The snowbed specialists will be the most suffering species due to the loss of their habitats as a consequence of earlier snowmelt dates in the future and will be replaced by the avoiders of late-snowmelt sites. These forthcoming profiteers will take advantage from an increasing number of suitable habitats due to an earlier start of the growing season and increased temperature. Therefore, the characteristic snowbed vegetation will change to a vegetation unit dominated by alpine grassland species. The study highlights the vulnerability of the established snowbed vegetation to climate change and requires further studies particularly about the role of biotic interactions in the predicted invasion and replacement process.     

Long-term upwelling evolution in tropical and equatorial Pacific during the last 800 kyr as revealed by coccolithophore assemblages

The coccolithophore assemblages in two ODP Sites (1237 and 1238) are studied in order to reconstruct the paleoenvironmental conditions in the tropical and equatorial Pacific during the last 800 kyr. Both ODP Sites are located in the two most significant upwelling zones of the tropical and equatorial Pacific: Peru and Equatorial upwelling, respectively. The two sites are considered to have had similar evolutions. The coccolith relative abundance, the nannofossil accumulation rate (NAR) and the N ratio (namely, the proportion of < 3 μm placoliths in relation to Florisphaera profunda) allow us to identify three different intervals. Interval I (0.86-0.45 Ma) and interval III (0.22-0 Ma) are related to weak upwelling and weak Trade Winds, as suggested by coccolithophore assemblages with low N ratios. Interval II (0.45-0.22 Ma), characterized by dominant Gephyrocapsa caribbeanica and very abundant “small” Gephyrocapsa and Gephyrocapsa oceanica, is conversely related to intense upwelling and enhanced Trade Winds.     

The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China

Leaf phenology has been shown to be one of the most important indicators of the effects of climate change on biological systems. Few such studies have, however, been published detailing the relationship between phenology and climate change in Asian contexts. With the aim of quantifying species’ phenological responsiveness to temperature and deepening understandings of spatial patterns of phenological and climate change in China, this study analyzes the first leaf date (FLD) and the leaf coloring date (LCD) from datasets of four woody plant species, Robinia pseudoacacia, Ulmus pumila, Salix babylonica, and Melia azedarach, collected from 1963 to 2009 at 47 Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) stations spread across China (from 21° to 50° N). The results of this study show that changes in temperatures in the range of 39–43 days preceding the date of FLD of these plants affected annual variations in FLD, while annual variations in temperature in the range of 71–85 days preceding LCD of these plants affected the date of LCD. Average temperature sensitivity of FLD and LCD for these plants was ?3.93 to 3.30 days °C^?1 and 2.11 to 4.43 days °C^?1, respectively. Temperature sensitivity of FLD was found to be stronger at lower latitudes or altitude as well as in more continental climates, while the response of LCD showed no consistent pattern. Within the context of significant warming across China during the study period, FLD was found to have advanced by 5.44 days from 1960 to 2009; over the same period, LCD was found to have been delayed by 4.56 days. These findings indicate that the length of the growing season of the four plant species studied was extended by a total of 10.00 days from 1960 to 2009. They also indicate that phenological response to climate is highly heterogeneous spatially.     

中国五味子分布范围及气候变化影响预测

结合文献资料、标本记录和实际调查绘制了中国五味子分布图,并基于五味子分布范围和21个环境因子,运用Maxent软件预测了IPCC A2和A1B两种气候变化情景下21世纪50和80年代中国五味子分布范围.结果表明:五味子分布于中国15省/市(区),涉及151个县,随着纬度和经度的降低,面积逐渐减少,黑龙江、辽宁、内蒙古和吉林4省(区)是五味子主要分布区域;五味子在中国的潜在分布面积为145.12×104 km2,较好生境面积占48.6％,主要分布在长白山山脉、大兴安岭、小兴安岭以及河北省与辽宁省相邻区域;最佳生境面积仅占0.3％,主要分布在辽宁省的宽甸满族自治县、本溪满族自治县、桓仁满族自治县以及吉林省的安图县、和龙市和内蒙古自治区牙克石市.在A1B和A2两种情景下,未来五味子潜在分布区逐渐减少,A2情景的五味子潜在分布区下降比率大于AIB情景;至21世纪50年代,A1B和A2情景下五味子潜在分布区将缩减为当前潜在分布区面积的84.0％和81.5％;至21世纪80年代,A2情景下五味子潜在分布区仅为当前的0.5％,B2情景下五味子潜在分布区减至当前的1/2.     

The impact of past climate change on genetic variation and population connectivity in the Icelandic arctic fox

Previous studies have suggested that the presence of sea ice is an important factor in facilitating migration and determining the degree of genetic isolation among contemporary arctic fox populations. Because the extent of sea ice is dependent upon global temperatures, periods of significant cooling would have had a major impact on fox population connectivity and genetic variation. We tested this hypothesis by extracting and sequencing mitochondrial control region sequences from 17 arctic foxes excavated from two late-ninth-century to twelfth-century AD archaeological sites in northeast Iceland, both of which predate the Little Ice Age (approx. sixteenth to nineteenth century). Despite the fact that five haplotypes have been observed in modern Icelandic foxes, a single haplotype was shared among all of the ancient individuals. Results from simulations within an approximate Bayesian computation framework suggest that the rapid increase in Icelandic arctic fox haplotype diversity can only be explained by sea-ice-mediated fox immigration facilitated by the Little Ice Age.     

Summer monsoon precipitation variations in central China over the past 750 years derived from a high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite

A 2–3-year resolution record of stalagmite oxygen isotope variations from the south flank of the Qinling Mountains, central China, has revealed the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation variations in the investigated area over the past 750 years. The summer monsoon precipitation gradually increased since 1249 AD, reaching its highest values in the period 1535–1685 AD, and then decreased with substantial decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations. The monsoon precipitation increased again between 1920 and 1970 AD. Three intervals of high monsoon precipitation were identified: 1535–1685 AD, 1755–1835 AD, and 1920–1970 AD. Three intervals of low precipitation were inferred in 1249–1325 AD, 1390–1420 AD, and 1890–1915 AD. The δ¹⁸O composition and lithological features of the stalagmite coincidently indicate a wetter climate during the Little Ice Age (LIA), which is also confirmed by climate records from Chinese historical documents within this area. A comparison with other high-resolution speleothem records indicates regional differences in monsoon precipitation variability from the south to the north of central China in the last 750 years on decadal- to centennial-scale. Power spectrum analysis of the δ¹⁸O record shows significant 117.8-, 34.6-, 14-, 10.3-, and ~ 6-year periodicities. These periodicities are widely observed in the climate records from ASM-controlled areas of China and are consistent with the Gleissburg periodicity, Brϋckner periodicity, sunspot periodicity of solar activity, and El Nińo–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicity. These correlations suggest that both solar activity and ENSO periodicity may have had important influences on ASM precipitation in China over the past 750 years.